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Old 2013-05-06, 23:34   Link #32221
Renall
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
The police had no way of acertaining that there was a crime at all. They could also merely speculate about the events. Yes, "checking about Shanon/Kanon" is speculation too. Even if there was a person roleplaying, there is no proof that this person is also the culprit that killed everyone before mansion blew up. Who can say that it wasn't just a chainreaction that led to the ignation of the whole forgotten explosives on Rokkenjima?
The fact that there are messages in bottles describing a crime that happen to coincide with a massive explosion are at least heavily circumstantially suggestive of criminal activity. No sane police officer is going to go "Well, it could've just been an accident, I mean we can't be sure" and then abandon the investigation.

There may well have been other reasons to abandon the investigation, but we're not told what they were.
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Old 2013-05-07, 01:36   Link #32222
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An interesting but unrelated note on Maria:

Stress (including environmental, relationship and you know, straight up abuse) can cause emotional regression in children. This is includes acting like a younger age than they are.
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Old 2013-05-07, 02:45   Link #32223
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Yes, but given her overly extreme sense of honesty, her tendency to identify people by their behavior regardless of their appearance, and an obsession with trying the same things over and over to get different results, it's much more likely that Maria simply exists on the autistic spectrum.

Especially since she's demonstrated extreme examples of savant abilities such as memorization and intuition.
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Old 2013-05-07, 04:49   Link #32224
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
There may well have been other reasons to abandon the investigation, but we're not told what they were.
The question is, do we need to be told?
For Ange's emotional journey it is merely important that the crime remains unsolved. What leads the police followed upon and what not are an interesting fact, but they are neither important to the understanding of the core story nor to the understanding of the characters.

We do know that it was declared unlikely to be a incident of criminal dimension. Whether that was due to other criminal activity, the police being incompetent, an accident like them forgetting to check Maria's diary before returning it to her kin (Eva and Ange) or simply other evidence being stronger, this is all part of another catbox, which plays strongly into the theme of the story and it is therefore questionable whether it is a flaw that these were not elaborated upon.
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Old 2013-05-07, 06:23   Link #32225
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To add to the thing on Maria, the text seems to suggest much more to me that it's more like "Maria acts abnormally, Rosa gets angry at this" than "Rosa gets angry at Maria, which causes her to act abnormally". I'm sure there are elements of both of course, but it's pretty clear one of the major roots of Rosa's abusive behaviour is that Maria doesn't act like a normal girl would.
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Old 2013-05-07, 08:05   Link #32226
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On another Note: I just realized that Natsuhi's "Diary" not showing the truth could be a hint/foreshadowing that "the book of one truth" may show wrong things as well.
I wouldn't say Natsuhi's diary didn't contain the "truth". It's more like it contained a past truth, one that had been overwritten, facts filtered by her feelings and so interpreted. When she wrote that diary Natsuhi wrote them according to her feelings but, with times, things changed and she stopped hating the Ushiromiya, therefore looking at things with a new view.

The diaries for example admit that Krauss tried being kind to her and say that she viewed that kindness as unpleasant that she thought it was out of pity or in an attempt to humiliate her.

There's likely no lie in this. Natsuhi is giving a true fact and what were her true feelings in relation to this fact.

Krauss' motivations though are left as speculation. Actually it could be that, like her, Krauss in the beginning didn't like her much and acted out of pity than grew fond of her in the same way she grew fond of him.

As long as Natsuhi's diary doesn't state that Krauss did something that he did not or imply what's reported isn't Natsuhi's feelings but the truth we can't really say what is written is false, at best we can assume she thought wrongly of Krauss.

Umineko has plenty of truthful sentences that hide lies.

In that sense though Natsuhi's book can foreshadow that Eva's diary, in its retelling of the truth, might lead that reader to jump to wrong conclusion.
So... it's not exactly lying, it's more like tricking the readers.

Anyway what I found interesting about the diaries is that she used them to 'seal' those truths of the past, those feelings of her.
Yes, Eva might have written a diary for the same purpose but I wonder if the messages in the bottles were written for the same purpose as well. They sealed away Yasu's feelings of anger toward the Ushiromiya and Battler.

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The question is, do we need to be told?
For Ange's emotional journey it is merely important that the crime remains unsolved. What leads the police followed upon and what not are an interesting fact, but they are neither important to the understanding of the core story nor to the understanding of the characters.

We do know that it was declared unlikely to be a incident of criminal dimension. Whether that was due to other criminal activity, the police being incompetent, an accident like them forgetting to check Maria's diary before returning it to her kin (Eva and Ange) or simply other evidence being stronger, this is all part of another catbox, which plays strongly into the theme of the story and it is therefore questionable whether it is a flaw that these were not elaborated upon.
Not being told certain things is misleading.

Honestly when ShKanon wasn't proved yet my complains were all about missing hints that should logically exist (the main one being that no one ever mentioned that Shannon and Kanon have the same face despite not being related) and since said hint didn't exist, that in itself was a hint of the opposite (Shannon and Kanon didn't look at all like each other).

So if we aren't told that the police for some random reason couldn't check the writing of the message and see if it belonged to Shannon we're lead to assume the police checked and didn't matched.

It's true Umineko is, more than a mystery, a puzzle where rain doesn't need to wet people so constructing a theory over a logical fact like: "if you go out in the rain you should be drenched and can't dry yourself that fast, not mention you'll have to change your clothes and someone should notice it" can't be used but still, the fact that Umineko defies logic to hide hints is something that had always annoyed me because it's the same as saying 'for certain things believes in the witches'.

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To add to the thing on Maria, the text seems to suggest much more to me that it's more like "Maria acts abnormally, Rosa gets angry at this" than "Rosa gets angry at Maria, which causes her to act abnormally". I'm sure there are elements of both of course, but it's pretty clear one of the major roots of Rosa's abusive behaviour is that Maria doesn't act like a normal girl would.
I think it's more of a vicious circle. Due to lack of affection (but it can even be Maria had problems on her own) Maria grows more slowly, the fact irritates Rosa who grows even less affectionate, which worsen Maria, which irritates Rosa further, which makes things worse in Maria and so on.
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Old 2013-05-07, 08:12   Link #32227
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
The question is, do we need to be told?
For Ange's emotional journey it is merely important that the crime remains unsolved. What leads the police followed upon and what not are an interesting fact, but they are neither important to the understanding of the core story nor to the understanding of the characters.
The problem is, they're fairly important to Ange. She asks a number of strange people about the incident, but doesn't seem to know much about the police investigation and certainly doesn't speak to anyone who was involved in it. This seems like it would be one of the first places you go, to "see if they missed anything" if nothing else.

It's possible there was a reason why she didn't, something that is common knowledge in the future but unknown to us as readers. For example, maybe Ange is aware that at almost every press conference on the matter, whoever was speaking for the police was suspiciously nervous and dismissive, convincing her that Eva bought off the police to stop looking. Thus, she believes the police are a worthless source of information. However we don't know that, and Ange doesn't tell us that specifically, so it's less a catbox around the investigation and more a catbox of Ange's own making for no particular purpose but to inconvenience the reader.

We know that common knowledge exists that is often hidden from us. For example, the explosion's assured occurrence is well-known in the future but was carefully sidestepped in Alliance. But the difference here is that anything that happened before the explosion is permanently lost and there are no known witnesses subsequent to Eva's death. There are plenty of witnesses and remaining pieces of information in the world beyond Rokkenjima, most of which probably weren't destroyed. If those things still exist, it should be possible to check them, but we can't. If those things don't exist, that's interesting and highly suspicious information, but we'll never know what it is.

It's not a catbox because of the actual circumstances of the investigation. It's a catbox because the author doesn't want to tell us. I don't see how that's in any way equivalent, given that Ange has no particular reason to avoid or hide information that might give her the closure she's seeking. She was willing to "share" with the reader special information known only to her (Maria's diary); why would she deliberately ignore information that could help her?
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Old 2013-05-07, 19:21   Link #32228
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The problem is, they're fairly important to Ange. She asks a number of strange people about the incident, but doesn't seem to know much about the police investigation and certainly doesn't speak to anyone who was involved in it. This seems like it would be one of the first places you go, to "see if they missed anything" if nothing else.

It's possible there was a reason why she didn't, something that is common knowledge in the future but unknown to us as readers. For example, maybe Ange is aware that at almost every press conference on the matter, whoever was speaking for the police was suspiciously nervous and dismissive, convincing her that Eva bought off the police to stop looking. Thus, she believes the police are a worthless source of information. However we don't know that, and Ange doesn't tell us that specifically, so it's less a catbox around the investigation and more a catbox of Ange's own making for no particular purpose but to inconvenience the reader.

We know that common knowledge exists that is often hidden from us. For example, the explosion's assured occurrence is well-known in the future but was carefully sidestepped in Alliance. But the difference here is that anything that happened before the explosion is permanently lost and there are no known witnesses subsequent to Eva's death. There are plenty of witnesses and remaining pieces of information in the world beyond Rokkenjima, most of which probably weren't destroyed. If those things still exist, it should be possible to check them, but we can't. If those things don't exist, that's interesting and highly suspicious information, but we'll never know what it is.

It's not a catbox because of the actual circumstances of the investigation. It's a catbox because the author doesn't want to tell us. I don't see how that's in any way equivalent, given that Ange has no particular reason to avoid or hide information that might give her the closure she's seeking. She was willing to "share" with the reader special information known only to her (Maria's diary); why would she deliberately ignore information that could help her?
Exactly. Ange's investigation seems weird. She didn't go to the police nor she tried to contact the other servants that worked for the Ushiromiya at that time. She investigates on the message but only to let us know it wasn't written by Maria or Eva but by the same person who wrote in Maria's diary.
The message should be important to her as it proves that whoever wrote it was closely connected with Maria at least and defined herself as Beatrice then... she drops investigation.

I mean, the only lead she had that someone else might be involved in her family murder, who might have manipulated Maria into giving her help, who could have been behind the bribes and she... just drop it?

She doesn't even wonder who could have written it, only why.
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Old 2013-05-09, 05:13   Link #32229
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I mean, the only lead she had that someone else might be involved in her family murder, who might have manipulated Maria into giving her help, who could have been behind the bribes and she... just drop it?

She doesn't even wonder who could have written it, only why.
Well, Ange in EP4 (and later in EP8) admits herself that her journey was less about finding THE truth and more about finding a (her) truth. She feels partly responsible for what happened and wants to find freedom, probably because deep down she knows that all her search won't bring her family back.

She also says very early in EP4 (during her conversation with Okonogi I think) that the police did investigate several leads, but were mainly aiming to prove the blame put on Eva. In the end they were unable to produce any solid evidence for a actual murder plot.
It's also hinted again and again that the existence of two conflicting message bottles (with the possibility of more existing) made it very unlikely to be either a murder plot nor an actual description.

I'm not saying that this is what would happen during any police investigation, but looking at a number of unsolved cases even today, it is very fascinating to see what leads are actually followed up on and which are not.

Also, I looked this up in some books on constitutional laws in Japan and apparently it is against constitutional rights to confiscate personal possessions even in a murder case, unless they are illegally held objects from the beginning.
So one could even assume that the police just did not have any chance to look at Maria's diary that easily.
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Old 2013-05-09, 08:15   Link #32230
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But that diary belongs to a dead person. Surely they have the authority to just look through it.

I find it a bit strange that they can essentially detain you indefinitely for questioning but can't keep your writings long enough to read them or make copies.
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Old 2013-05-09, 13:47   Link #32231
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But that diary belongs to a dead person. Surely they have the authority to just look through it.

I find it a bit strange that they can essentially detain you indefinitely for questioning but can't keep your writings long enough to read them or make copies.
No, by right it belongs to the next of kin and as long as there is no direct necessity to obtain said diary, it is very likely that they (at least technically) handed it over to Eva and Ange even before directly finding a necessity to obtain said evidence.
There was ample ways to obtain handwritten evidence from Ushiromiya Maria, but as long as no police officer took a closer look into said diary there would have been ample evidence in her school to access.
Finding the parts where Maria talks about Beatrice AND feature writing by "Beatrice" (which could very likely be just that one page about the Mariage Sorciere) has a very low likelihood if you don't know what you are looking for.

Article 35 of the Japanese Constitution reads:
The right of all persons to be secure in their homes, papers and effects against entries, searches and seizures shall not be impaired except upon warrant issued for adequate cause and particularly describing the place to be searched and things to be seized, or except as provided by Article 33.
(Sub-clause)
Each search or seizure shall be made upon separate warrant issued by a competent judicial officer.


Also interesting is a sub-clause on Article 38:
No person shall be convicted or punished in cases where the only proof against him is his own confession.
Which would basically disable the Japanese police to do anything in the case of "Beatrice's confession"
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Old 2013-05-09, 14:13   Link #32232
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I hate to wade into a matter in which I am not fully licensed or qualified, but in general I think you're misinterpreting the way legal process would work in this matter. The warrant provision in the Japanese constitution is essentially similar to the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution. In fact, it's almost exactly the same:

The right of the people to be secure in their persons, houses, papers, and effects, against unreasonable searches and seizures, shall not be violated, and no Warrants shall issue, but upon probable cause, supported by Oath or affirmation, and particularly describing the place to be searched, and the persons or things to be seized.

As the story itself suggests, the message bottle was retained for some time before its release when by your logic it ought to have been given to Eva (as it was located on what is essentially now her property). Except I don't think that's how it actually works. The key distinction here is the thing you quoted, "except upon warrant." If the police are conducting an investigation, they are likely to obtain a warrant for any information they might consider relevant, and unless Japanese law is wildly different from American law (and I would venture to guess it is far, far more judicially permissive to investigators), that warrant will be issued. At that point, even if the property is returned to next of kin, it can be reclaimed by police for investigative purposes as long as it matches the specific and proper description in the warrant. The message bottle was probably considered evidence and was retained through a warrant, but eventually released when police couldn't find anything useful to it.

For them to have not checked Maria's diary, however, means more that they probably didn't consider it necessary or worthwhile to obtain a warrant, not that they wouldn't be allowed to see the thing. The diary was assuredly catalogued and inventoried along with the stake and other items that were handed over after the incident; the police know they found it. So the only explanation is that either nobody saw anything of interest at the time when they looked it over or they never considered it to be a viable lead to begin with and thus saw no reason to obtain a warrant to search it. However, I think it is a near certainty that they obtained warrants for some things, like the financial records of the adults. And a judge absolutely would have granted it to them.

Eva could've perhaps destroyed some evidence between the time of it being handed over to her and the point at which investigators might turn up with a warrant. We don't know of any instance in which she did so, and in fact we have evidence that she preserved information and evidence in the form of her own diary. If she did turn over anything potentially incriminating to her, it apparently wasn't sufficient for any charges. If she'd destroyed something the police later had interest in, she'd probably be in far greater trouble than if she'd just kept it, unless she was paying them off. But again, we have no evidence of this happening, just a big blank spot.

Also you are entirely misinterpreting the relevance of Article 38, in that there is none; "Beatrice" is presumed dead, so they wouldn't be trying to obtain her conviction anyway, just investigate her information to determine whether she might be a deceased culprit and thus close out their investigation. Even then, the article does not assert that you cannot use a confession in proceedings, only that you cannot use a confession alone. The confession could presumably be used to, as an example, substantiate motive or back up the idea that the person behind "Beatrice" knew enough about the island to have control over the explosives and potentially detonate them. Also, Maria's diary existing is actually supplementary non-confessional information which could probably work as the cornerstone for getting that confession into evidence.

Never bet against a competent prosecutor, is what I'm saying.

It's far more likely that the investigators simply didn't consider some of those things relevant or important. In the case of Maria's diary, I can actually understand this; it would require exhaustive perusal of the diary of a nine-year-old to find potentially missable script in a different person's handwriting. In the case of some of the other things, like whether Kanon legally even exists, it becomes immensely sloppy to even contemplate that they'd overlook it, and it seems like information that would be remarkably well-known and extremely suspicious, at least to Witch Hunters.
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Old 2013-05-09, 23:45   Link #32233
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I hate to wade into a matter in which I am not fully licensed or qualified, but in general I think you're misinterpreting the way legal process would work in this matter. The warrant provision in the Japanese constitution is essentially similar to the Fourth Amendment to the United States Constitution.
Cool, learned something new there. Though as far as I read up on some things, it's actually a whole load of paperwork to get a warrant in Japan, because it has to be approved by a judge and goes through some very confusing stages.
I think we are probably on the same page when saying that they didn't see any possible gain in obtaining the diary of a 9 year old, especially if no proper analysis of it happened before. Like I said before, searching the diary for important clues requires a certain insight that police officers on the scene would likely not have possessed. It's again one of these Umineko'ish one-in-a-million chances of somebody actually doing the right thing in the right moment.

Quote:
Even then, the article does not assert that you cannot use a confession in proceedings, only that you cannot use a confession alone. The confession could presumably be used to, as an example, substantiate motive or back up the idea that the person behind "Beatrice" knew enough about the island to have control over the explosives and potentially detonate them. Also, Maria's diary existing is actually supplementary non-confessional information which could probably work as the cornerstone for getting that confession into evidence.
Though this interests me now, how far would some of these work as proper evidence and who would be the accused? Can you accuse a person whose identity is unknown to you purely based on a fictional persona they created?
Maria's diary could work as evidence, though couldn't a proper attorney plead for mental instability and therefore impartial evidence in the case of that diary? If we go by how the manga depicts it, the pages from where "Beatrice" teaches her dark magic start looking like the rambling of a mad woman, barely readable, clearly emotionally upset, lashing out at everybody. Wouldn't it incriminate Maria more than "Beatrice"?
The only known entry from "Beatrice" is the Marriage Sorciere one and everything around that time that Maria writes about meeting her witch friends is perfectly harmless as well. Then when her classmates start mocking her it starts degrading into darker territories and finally when Rosa destroys Sakutaro she breaks and starts writing about wanting people to die.

What about the explosives? You might get people to talk about them, but 40 year old torpedoes below an island are not quite safe anyway, so their mere existence doesn't proof an immediate crime I'd say. The "trigger story" wouldn't produce much evidence, as there is no way to actually go and see that trigger system, it could probably waved off as one of the many crazy fabrications about Rokkenjima and the Ushiromiyas.

And concerning connecting said "Beatrice" to an actual person on the island, it would prove hard even with the evidence of a woman living on Rokkenjima until 1967, considering that Shannon was officially not born until 1969 and (if he exists legally) Kanon not until 1970 (if I remember correctly).
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Old 2013-05-10, 08:29   Link #32234
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Cool, learned something new there. Though as far as I read up on some things, it's actually a whole load of paperwork to get a warrant in Japan, because it has to be approved by a judge and goes through some very confusing stages.
Well, when 15+ people die, you go through the paperwork. Getting stuff out of the adults' companies would actually be far, far harder than getting birth/adoption records on Shannon and Kanon. I'm pretty sure Fukuin would be obligated to turn over any documentation they had with a fairly basic warrant, but the lawyers for the companies would fight tooth and nail to keep any financial information under wraps.
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Though this interests me now, how far would some of these work as proper evidence and who would be the accused? Can you accuse a person whose identity is unknown to you purely based on a fictional persona they created?
Generally no. And you normally can't accuse a dead person either. The point is you'd investigate the "Beatrice" thing and try to figure out who it might be. I don't think circumstantial evidence would even make it that difficult to pin down to a servant, presumably female, who had been present on the island for a long period of time. Really, given the descriptions people would provide (Gohda wasn't the only one who saw it, I'd think) I'd probably narrow it down to either Jessica or Shannon.

We don't know the purpose behind the "Beatrice" facade, but the point is that as a strange lead police would be obligated to do their best to try to figure it out. After all, if "Beatrice" was the culprit, and did commit a crime, but died doing so... well, case closed. The nutjob who wrote these message bottles did it, nobody to prosecute, everybody can go home.
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Maria's diary could work as evidence, though couldn't a proper attorney plead for mental instability and therefore impartial evidence in the case of that diary? If we go by how the manga depicts it, the pages from where "Beatrice" teaches her dark magic start looking like the rambling of a mad woman, barely readable, clearly emotionally upset, lashing out at everybody. Wouldn't it incriminate Maria more than "Beatrice"?
Well first of all a child her age probably has no criminal culpability. You might try to argue against the admission of the diary on the basis that, written as it is by a nine-year-old, the information in it probably isn't accurate. Still, murdering someone to prevent their testimony gets the diary in around a hearsay exception, and "the diary contains script by an individual whose handwriting matches the message bottles in which a bunch of people are murdered" is in my mind a fairly compelling argument to at least allow the alternate script to be admitted, with relevant passages or references to the individual also admitted. It's up to somebody else's attorney to argue that an autistic nine-year-old's scribblings are inherently untrustworthy.
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What about the explosives? You might get people to talk about them, but 40 year old torpedoes below an island are not quite safe anyway, so their mere existence doesn't proof an immediate crime I'd say. The "trigger story" wouldn't produce much evidence, as there is no way to actually go and see that trigger system, it could probably waved off as one of the many crazy fabrications about Rokkenjima and the Ushiromiyas.
Well apparently there's some information floating around about this. The torpedoes honestly should never have been "lost," just forgotten about. There ought to still be records of their transport sitting around in an old military archive or former occupation government building collecting dust, and there ought to be Naval veterans who saw them there or brought them to the storage facility on ships or submarines. They couldn't all have been on Rokkenjima when the fight broke out.

The ep8 manga also suggests the clock bomb trigger thing was known to some people who were Kinzo's business associates. It's certainly possible to dismiss it as just some rumor... unless you're the police and you're investigating an island that just exploded.

Does this prove criminal activity? No, but in and of itself it's certainly circumstantial evidence. Notably, you can make a very intriguing logic chain for an Eva culprit by arguing:
  • Kinzo was always known to have and keep his ring.
  • Kinzo obviously would've known where his own bomb trigger was, and that might be a secret the head kept.
  • Kinzo hadn't been seen for a while, so he was either dead in advance or died in the explosion.
  • When Eva was found, she somehow had Kinzo's ring.
  • The process by which Eva acquired the ring seems very likely to have given her some knowledge of her father's secrets, such as the bomb trigger.
  • Ergo, Eva must have used the bomb trigger.
It's not the best logic, but people have been convicted of murder for about as much. I wouldn't personally go forward with it, and it seems prosecutors in Eva's world didn't think it was a strong enough case either.
Quote:
And concerning connecting said "Beatrice" to an actual person on the island, it would prove hard even with the evidence of a woman living on Rokkenjima until 1967, considering that Shannon was officially not born until 1969 and (if he exists legally) Kanon not until 1970 (if I remember correctly).
We don't actually know that the woman died. That information was lost with Genji and Rosa (or was it? How'd it get into Banquet?). Even if we do know, it doesn't mean a whole lot because it just tends to indicate that Kinzo kept at least one person hidden from the world. Who's to say he didn't do it again? Honestly, if I could find no information about Kanon anywhere I might be inclined to wonder if he's another of Kinzo's bizarre prisoners... and if so, was that a motive, to strike back and try to be free? It's worth at least looking into!

Either way, as I said, if the servants can be interrogated they'll probably mention somebody who was pulling pranks or wandering the mansion at night. Assuming those stories are credible and multiple people can back them up, you can at least narrow down the probable age and body type of that person. Maria may have even let slip descriptive information in her diary. At the very least, you could probably guess "it's a younger woman." Well, there are only two younger women present on the island with any regularity who were also present that weekend: Shannon and Jessica.

Narrowing it down to two subjects who can then be investigated seems reasonable. You probably wouldn't find anything on either of them to suggest criminal activity, but then again... I mean somebody's name was used to establish those bank boxes.
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Old 2013-05-10, 12:17   Link #32235
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
I don't think circumstantial evidence would even make it that difficult to pin down to a servant, presumably female, who had been present on the island for a long period of time. Really, given the descriptions people would provide (Gohda wasn't the only one who saw it, I'd think) I'd probably narrow it down to either Jessica or Shannon.
Well yes, it's not even unlikely that this might have been one of the stronger leads that some might have followed up upon, but then there would have been no activity shown that would incriminate the 17 year old servant girl beyond a basic doubt of "she was after the money".
It was mentioned that the case against Eva was basically dropped because, even though she was considered a suspect in the beginning, they couldn't produce evidence of her planning anything out of the ordinary when heading to the last family conference.
The same could be said for Shannon, because there would be no evidence of her entertaining any moves outside Rokkenjima, except her holiday with George. I think even the bank account was installed by Genji for her. Had she really planned this as a way to get towards the money, she and George should have survived. Even more, the author of the message bottles seems to hold an intense hatred for Shannon and Kanon (no matter who they were) antagonizing them in a degree that's not easily explainable.

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After all, if "Beatrice" was the culprit, and did commit a crime, but died doing so... well, case closed. The nutjob who wrote these message bottles did it, nobody to prosecute, everybody can go home.
The problem here is that Maria's Beatrice and the Beatrice of the message bottles are inherently different in there characterization and it is common knowledge that Kinzo spread the story about meeting "the witch Beatrice" since the 1950's apparently. The question why somebody who'd portray this witch as a sweet and kind friend to a girl, yet portray her as a murdering monstrosity in a story remains unsolved without further evidence.
Yes, you could end on the agreement that "a nutjob who actually believed in a witch came close to Maria and finally blew them all up", but several things just don't end up with that solution. Which is why I think it is not entirely unthinkable that they'd leave the case undisclosed.

Going by what I said above, about incriminating evidence, Kyrie is actually the one with the highest amount of "preparation" going into her departure towards Rokkenjima. She not only left her daughter at home, it might have even been possibly to produce evidence that the 3 siblings and their spouses were in a discussion before heading to Rokkenjima, the son of her husband suddenly returning after a 6 year absence. It is not that hard to understand why so many people in-universe seem to believe in at least a Kyrie culprit theory.

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The ep8 manga also suggests the clock bomb trigger thing was known to some people who were Kinzo's business associates. It's certainly possible to dismiss it as just some rumor... unless you're the police and you're investigating an island that just exploded.
Yes, of course. But unless you find the person who actually built the trigger, wouldn't you be stuck with just witnesses testifying the existence of a probable cause of the explosion?

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Does this prove criminal activity? No, but in and of itself it's certainly circumstantial evidence. Notably, you can make a very intriguing logic chain for an Eva culprit by arguing
Like you said, it is an intriguing argument, but not entirely unshakable.
The strongest argument against Eva culprit actually being what Okonogi also brought up, the death of Hideyoshi and George and the decline of Eva's mental state following their funeral. Yes, you could argue irrational acting in a moment of high stress, but this are all very hypothetical scenarios.

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We don't actually know that the woman died. That information was lost with Genji and Rosa (or was it? How'd it get into Banquet?).
Well, the information in Banquet very likely came through Touya, who might have heard it from Rosa while on the island. Banquet though was only released like 1996 or 1997, so probably after the investigation was already put largely on ice, putting aside that "fanfiction" on the internet would have been an even more obscure thing in mid/late 90's than today.
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Old 2013-05-10, 12:50   Link #32236
Renall
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
The same could be said for Shannon, because there would be no evidence of her entertaining any moves outside Rokkenjima, except her holiday with George. I think even the bank account was installed by Genji for her.
All that really does is make Genji even more suspicious. Why was Kinzo's personal butler setting these things up? Was Kinzo up to something? Was Genji?
Quote:
The problem here is that Maria's Beatrice and the Beatrice of the message bottles are inherently different in there characterization and it is common knowledge that Kinzo spread the story about meeting "the witch Beatrice" since the 1950's apparently. The question why somebody who'd portray this witch as a sweet and kind friend to a girl, yet portray her as a murdering monstrosity in a story remains unsolved without further evidence.
Yes, you could end on the agreement that "a nutjob who actually believed in a witch came close to Maria and finally blew them all up", but several things just don't end up with that solution. Which is why I think it is not entirely unthinkable that they'd leave the case undisclosed.
Counterpoint: Maria's writing becomes darker and more angry over time. One could argue that Beatrice merely appeared to Maria initially in a nice guise, then manipulated her into becoming bitter and hateful. Now it sort of matches up the two conceptions of Beatrice and portrays her as a potentially dangerous person.
Quote:
Going by what I said above, about incriminating evidence, Kyrie is actually the one with the highest amount of "preparation" going into her departure towards Rokkenjima. She not only left her daughter at home, it might have even been possibly to produce evidence that the 3 siblings and their spouses were in a discussion before heading to Rokkenjima, the son of her husband suddenly returning after a 6 year absence. It is not that hard to understand why so many people in-universe seem to believe in at least a Kyrie culprit theory.
The problem with this is figuring out how some of these things actually benefit Kyrie, and also explaining how the explosion happened and why Eva didn't die. Leaving her daughter behind and bringing Rudolf's son with her is potentially suspicious, but what was it they actually intended to do? Remember, if Kyrie is premeditating things, she probably isn't planning to blow the island up because she isn't aware of any means to do so. If one were to argue that she somehow was aware... well, when and how did she find out?

I'd also question it somewhat in that Battler hasn't lived with Kyrie very much and I'd find it hard to believe she could convince him to help her commit premeditated mass murder just because he's her (as far as the entire world knows) stepson. Their only connection is through his father... and it's well-known that Battler is extremely upset with his father, and has been for six years. Surely people who knew Battler at school and wherever his grandparents lived would vouch for his behavior leading up to that point, or point out how infrequently he actually spent time with them, and how he thought of his father.
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Yes, of course. But unless you find the person who actually built the trigger, wouldn't you be stuck with just witnesses testifying the existence of a probable cause of the explosion?
I'm almost 99% certain that if a trigger mechanism existed, Kinzo built it himself. He's described as an engineer in the flashback, and given the base where he's stationed all I can think of is that he's either a submarine engineer, a construction engineer (why would he still be there?), or a munitions engineer. Pretty much any one of those three could probably have done it.

So it's a non-starter, but on the other hand, it's a very odd rumor to hear about. "That guy whose house blew up? Yeah, he said on several occasions that he has a way to blow his house up, and sometimes he deliberately flips the 'blow my house up' switch and sits there staring at it while searching for inspiration."

Hell, that might be strong evidence for an accident: Kinzo went down to his secret room and flipped a switch and sat there thinking and dropped dead of heart failure. Eva followed him, found him dead, and took his ring, then went to explore the rest of the area before reporting back to the others about it and, unaware of the trigger mechanism, wasn't able to disarm it. It makes about as much sense as anything else.
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Old 2013-05-11, 10:08   Link #32237
UsagiTenpura
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Haven't posted here in forever.
Thought I'd share this thought :
Arc 7 tea party is probably showing us a naked version of the story. The fantasy is removed, and so is the mystery aspect (as in closed room murder, there's a few mysterious elements in the TP still).
Something like it could be the primary form of most arcs, but turned into a mystery with long time delays between the murders, closed room created and all.
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Old 2013-05-12, 18:52   Link #32238
Kealym
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Well, it's not like that's wrong. I would recommend reading through Our Confessions, though, if you haven't already, because it's pretty much what you described. Beatrice going through the very bare scenario, setting up accomplices, alibis, maneuvering, how each death was done, and hidden, etc., and ALSO the narrative considerations of who was alive at what time, and the fantasy laid on top of all that.

On an unrelated note, before I go off on a tangent, is there a consensus of some sort that when Yasu used magic for the first time in EP7, the answer is something like "Yasu quickly replaced Berune's keyring with her own, which was missing it's Master Key, since it had been placed in Berune's locker. This way, she didn't have to worry about the stiffness or noise of working the keys behind Berune's back. Of course, this required the prank to be classified as premeditated revenge, and not a spontaneous urge, as was depicted."

I was trying to relate the fact that our arguments about Kanon not making sense are reasonable, and Berune's arguments for why her key couldn't have gone missing are also reasonable, and yet her key was missing nonetheless.
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Old 2013-05-13, 04:59   Link #32239
haguruma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
On an unrelated note, before I go off on a tangent, is there a consensus of some sort that when Yasu used magic for the first time in EP7,

I was trying to relate the fact that our arguments about Kanon not making sense are reasonable, and Berune's arguments for why her key couldn't have gone missing are also reasonable, and yet her key was missing nonetheless.
I think this boils down to a question far different from Kanon of how far we can believe a clearly partial depiction of a scene and in how far truth can be relative as well.
Something can still be called a spontaneous act, even though it predates the resulting events by a longer period of time, as long as the individual is not given clear incentive or chance to change his or her actions.
Yasu exchanged the keys beforehand, at least before the inspection, but she did so more of a spontaneous urge to cause mischief, like her superiors did unto her back in the days. Her goal was not clearly motivated revenge, but to play around, which caused Berune to be scolded.

This is just one possible way to explain what was going on.
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Old 2013-05-13, 05:57   Link #32240
Dormin
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About the topic of truth and our confessions, we can see it as additional gameboard. Because I am not big fan of Yasu being a killer, we can see all the boards as additional hints towards his worldview thus making our confessions story that should not be interpretated literally. What about if the entire our confessions is a story like the ones in the bottles, fantasies on how things could have happened or a way to went anger?

Of course I understand that good old Ryu meant our confessions as an answer, but it is not necessarily the truth what happened on the island. And I am too lazy to skim trough the text again but wasn't it hinted very subtly in the end of the text that there is something more to our confessions or an additional interpretation that could be applied to the story?
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