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Old 2013-05-19, 12:51   Link #32341
haguruma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
It's insanity. And insanity becomes harder and harder to swallow the more people you start trying to drag into it.
That is just not an interpretation I can subscribe to, in a society where suicide is still in some circles drawn as "withdrawing from shame in dignity" calling the involved people insane is not only ignorant of further circumstances, it is also highly arrogant.

Yes, for you it might be insanity, but you have to try and think in the patterns of people involved, which in these cases are high profile business people of the Japanese 1980s...which I highly assume you were not.
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Old 2013-05-19, 13:10   Link #32342
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Haguruma, could you please stop trying to use Japanese culture to try and justify this sort of thing? I actually am a Japanese citizen and this is complete horseshit. Harakiri has been going out of practice since after WW2, and even then it never justified forced-suicide of other people with you. That's just disgusting for you to insinuate otherwise.
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Old 2013-05-19, 14:03   Link #32343
UsagiTenpura
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Well if anything Umineko itself seems to relate to some of these things.
Ange is from modern Japan. She cares about finding the truth, the culprit.
Traditionally however Japan is seen as a society of shame rather then guilt (in simple terms that it's more important if others believe you did it or not or not then if you actually did it or not - something generally considered more immature even when applied to a society... but again this is a strong theme of Yasu).
I'm saying this in the same way that the western world is still influenced by remnants of Judeo-Christian beliefs and culture.
I'm not going to suggest Ryuukishi is telling us to embrace the values of the former, but I believe this is an important aspect of how he handled the concept of "truth" in Umineko.

Young Beatrice broke a vase but Virgilia erased the "shame" and made it alright. ShannonXGeorge, Shannon doesn't feel guilt about it, but shame. At least that's what Beatrice torments her about in arc 2. Then you have Rudolf and Kyrie talking about reputation being a bad investment since it can all fade away in a single wrong move. Various aspects of the value of reputation is explored. Ronove even equals honour and love in arc 5.

I don't think Ryuukishi intended for one to be pictured negatively and the other positively. I simply believe he wanted us to understand the world view of someone seeing things in a way that he probably knew was unusual for even modern japanese people to perceive thing. Looking at RGDs he certainly seems to care about cultural aspects of the past that is becoming lost in modern Japan.

I know this thing has been mused over again and again, but the whole stuff about "without love it cannot be seen" probably refers to that perception of things. Even if to you this is insane and amoral, it's still within the bounds of what humans as a society or a group most certainly can and did do.

Edit: I guess he does have fun pointing out that tho we claim to care about the truth, in reality we can't ever have anything more then our perception of it. Red doesn't exist for real - there is no red in the real world (but there's close enough...). Maybe he's getting that to someone like Yasu, it simply doesn't make sense to care about something you can't possibly have and thus built her entire world view around perception of truth.

Oh hm I'm also not suggesting that what we're dealing with is a shame suicide taking along everyone else. More that Yasu's motivations primarily revolves around creating and preserving a perception of truth. It's like Natsuhi never felt any guilt about hiding Kinzo's death and the primary reason she was afraid to be found out was shame. It's simply a matter of understanding characters under the axis they reason with. If you don't like associating this view in any ways with Japan, just think of personality types. It's basically the difference between a perceiving type and a judging type.

Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2013-05-19 at 17:19.
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Old 2013-05-19, 22:57   Link #32344
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Haguruma, could you please stop trying to use Japanese culture to try and justify this sort of thing? I actually am a Japanese citizen and this is complete horseshit. Harakiri has been going out of practice since after WW2, and even then it never justified forced-suicide of other people with you. That's just disgusting for you to insinuate otherwise.
I'm not insinuating that this is how "the Japanese" are, this is something that is being written about Japan by Japanese people.
Seppuku is a completely different topic that does not even apply here. I'm also not trying to say that suicide was ever a justifiably enforceable method of dealing with problems, but it still was and is a social reality that people do act this way. What I refuse to let stand here is Renall's claim that people act this way out of mere insanity, not social pressure, not historical evaluation of conduct in the face of tragedy, not cultural context but simply claiming "everybody who does this is insane", which is oversimplification.

I am not implying that anybody who is Japanese would thus act in such a way, probably not even 1%, maybe not even 0,1% of Japanese citizens would consider this course of action as reasonable under normal circumstances.
I am also not claiming that this is inherently Japanese. I'd say there have been similar considerations of "avoiding shame" in almost every society, as long as honor is seen as more important than mere survival from an socio-ideological standpoint.
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Old 2013-05-19, 23:42   Link #32345
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What I refuse to let stand here is Renall's claim that people act this way out of mere insanity, not social pressure, not historical evaluation of conduct in the face of tragedy, not cultural context but simply claiming "everybody who does this is insane", which is oversimplification.
I'd agree if that's what Renall was saying, but it's not. He's saying that in the specific situation of the Rokkenjima tragedy, anyone who'd be agreeing to a hypothetical group suicide would be insane since it drags in a bunch of innocent people against their will and is completely unnecessary since there are less extreme, more productive solutions to their problems.

Quote:
I am also not claiming that this is inherently Japanese. I'd say there have been similar considerations of "avoiding shame" in almost every society, as long as honor is seen as more important than mere survival from an socio-ideological standpoint.
And, again, there's no indication honor even plays a role in this scenario; all the adults who worry about money and their companies do so to protect their LIVELIHOOD, not their social standing. All of them worry about what they will do with their lives from then on if things collapse, as if to indicate they're mostly concerned about their family's/children's wellbeing.
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Old 2013-05-20, 01:39   Link #32346
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If you don't like associating this view in any ways with Japan, just think of personality types. It's basically the difference between a perceiving type and a judging type.
Wow, it's weird that you'd bring that up when I've been looking into that stuff a lot over the past couple of weeks.

I'm actually pretty sure that Yasu is INFJ, but the INFJ/INFP border is pretty vague and she's almost certainly in one of those categories. But certain characteristics such as seeing her own heart as an unsolvable riddle while intuitively understanding the people around her make her seem extremely INFJ-ish to me. INFJ is kind of considered a perceiving type anway, weirdly enough.
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Old 2013-05-20, 04:50   Link #32347
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
hypothetical group suicide would be insane since it drags in a bunch of innocent people against their will and is completely unnecessary since there are less extreme, more productive solutions to their problems.
Yet nobody within the stories would have agreed to a hypothetical group suicide. People are doing it being certain that they will win to a certain percentage and that their chances playing along are better than working against the crazy woman with the bomb. It's a little bit of game theory, where you search to stack the odds in your favor. Considering that Yasu was not only threatening you, but also your loved ones this becomes a much more intricate game.
Learning about her identity also means at least for Krauss/Natsuhi, Eva/Hideyoshi and Rosa that their child is in close range of Yasu and would likely trust her enough to become an easy target. In that sense, Rudolph and Kyrie are a little bit of a wild card in her game.

I have thought about Renall's proposition of cornering Yasu and taking her out, but that depends to much on the ability to trust that nobody else will make use of the situation/works with Yasu and will betray you in return.

Quote:
And, again, there's no indication honor even plays a role in this scenario; all the adults who worry about money and their companies do so to protect their LIVELIHOOD, not their social standing. All of them worry about what they will do with their lives from then on if things collapse, as if to indicate they're mostly concerned about their family's/children's wellbeing.
But isn't social standing and well-being intrinsically linked in the social realm that the Ushiromiya's exist in? They do care about their families, but money is an inherent element that cares for their well-being as well and being able to care for your family is again deeply linked with a certain element of honor, or rather not being able to care for them creates shame.

What I do not understand in this discussion is, why they cannot be loving people and consumed by the need for money at the same time. It's as if being one would directly contradict the other.
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Old 2013-05-20, 08:22   Link #32348
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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
But isn't social standing and well-being intrinsically linked in the social realm that the Ushiromiya's exist in? They do care about their families, but money is an inherent element that cares for their well-being as well and being able to care for your family is again deeply linked with a certain element of honor, or rather not being able to care for them creates shame.

What I do not understand in this discussion is, why they cannot be loving people and consumed by the need for money at the same time. It's as if being one would directly contradict the other.
Krauss would die for his wife and daughter. That is not the same thing as "Krauss would murder his entire family including probably his wife and daughter, because come on, you can totally trust the nutcase with a bomb right?" The entire idea for any accomplice is insane, callous, risky, and most likely counterproductive.

It's also stupid to the point of absurdity. Put in two minutes of thought and it falls apart: "Yes, my need for money is so great that I have basically no reservations about assisting a mentally ill person who threatened me with a bomb that I now know exists in killing my entire family, all on the promise that this teenage girl can totally get me hundreds of millions of yen that isn't based in illegal gold or vague promises and that I won't be immediately arrested for suddenly having that money after all of my siblings are horribly murdered. I am sure she will keep her word to help my particular part of the family after the fact because oh wait what is her endgame anyway? What is it she wants? Whatever it is, she'd kill everyone else to get it, so why not me as well? Why am I useful to her? Why should she give me anything? How will she stop me from ratting her out to the police afterward?"

You'd have to be an idiot, a lunatic, or a monster to even believe this is a sincere offer. You would have to be completely unable to look to Yasu's motive and realize she has absolutely no incentive to actually help you. Kyrie would never fall for this, and I find it difficult to believe the other adults would suddenly come down with a terminal case of the stupids over it. People previously shown to be smarter than this don't buy a line like that no matter what gets thrown at them, unless they're pretending to agree temporarily in order to turn the tables. At that point, the only reason Yasu would succeed would be blind luck, because she's not more clever than the people she thinks she's manipulating. And if she failed, you still run across the issue of figuring out why things would turn into some kind of mass death thereafter. Certainly there may be reasons, and they make more sense than hers would, but that doesn't necessarily make them plausible either.

It's not a sane motive. It's the motive of a villain in a murder mystery story and nothing more. And that's fine... for the murder mystery stories. An accomplice is an accomplice within her tales and the justification is permitted to be flimsier than it would really be. That's especially true when you're judging other people, whose depths you cannot easily know, and thus in fiction portray them as having more simplistic desires. But in the existence of a theoretical Prime there is absolutely no chance that this could be anyone's real motive. Not Yasu's, not the adults', not nobody's not nohow.
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Old 2013-05-20, 13:52   Link #32349
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I totally believe that standards of japanese society act a significant role in umineko.

However, as probably stated before somewhere, umineko is very western game in a way. Even the names and, to certain degree, clothing are trying to be "western". Personally I believe while considering the dealings with culprit and possibly yasu the pattern of behavior shouldn't be considered from the society viewpoint and what is generally accepted because almost anything that happens in the umineko, at least concerning the murders, is not accepted by society.

Now here's my two cents:

With yasu I agree with renalls general thoughtline. Even though he seems to think things FAR too logically (like neglecting the effect of panic and threatening) he has the right idea: people in umineko are smart. We have lots of evidence about this. If we want to explain the gameboards with yasu-culprit, that basically means she and her entire plan is batshit crazy. Now, like I probably stated somewhere before, threatening people straightforwardly with a gun is a plan I can see working, but supposing yasu either scared people with da bomb or people generally thought they were just playing around (both shown in our confessions) that is very difficult thing to grasp. I don't see anyone playing along with the culprit. One of the most unlogical thing I can see with yasuculprit (even though we can say "gameboards don't necessarily make sense as they are games") is the fact that seemingly sharp people go along with a completely retarded plan for a long period of time: the timeperiod is crucial. It is hard to believe people wouldn't dare to make somekind of plan against yasu, even though she has the bomb, just because teenager is saying she probably has a bomb with no evidence.

But on the other hand, I can see the murders happening if they were actually done impulsively. If we start thinking "realistically" the most unrealistic thing in the entire game is probably the concept of murder creating detective story and people acting along it. In this way threatening people as time passes becomes more and more difficult as the time not spent supervising accomplices becomes more short.

In this way the problem becomes if any person on the island is willing to play along with totally impossible plan about ritualistic murders with clearly insane individual with no change of trust or succeeding in getting money that might or might not exist while risking everyone on the family and probably persons of love.

To certain degree I can say, even if it sounds impossible, it might not be impossible. Only thing it really needs is a perfect trust between the culprit and accomplices (trust of not detonating the bomb and the promise of certain wealth), as we know the cast includes people capable of killing. However, once again, trusting an instable teenager with lots of guns and clearly delusional mind is something that should not be considered out of blue with characters that certainly posses the certain level of intelligence.

If we talk about prime, sure, I can see someone killing others for gold, as we can skip all the unnecessary forcing of murders to become a pure detective story.
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Old 2013-05-20, 14:24   Link #32350
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Regarding Episode 4, I mentioned that it is quite possible for Gohda and Kumasawa to be acting on the belief that everything is just a game and no murders have actually happened. It might even be possible to set things up so that Krauss, Kyrie, Nanjo, and Jessica believe everything's a game.

Setup: Yasu walks into the dining hall, where the adults are arguing. S/he shows the signet ring and announces "I am Ushiromiya Yasu, true heir to Ushiromiya Kinzo. I have solved the epitaph." (Perhaps Yasu presents some gold bars, or explains the epitaph.) "I am suspending the epitaph as a means of choosing the successor. None of you deserve it. Instead, I will give your respective children one last chance. If any of them pass my test, I will give all to them. But they must believe at all times that the test is real. If any of you reveal to them that this is fake before the test is over, I will instantly revoke my offer. Gohda, Kumasawa, go to the guest house. Tell the children that there has been an attack on the dining hall." Yasu then stares at Krauss. He nods and says "Do as Yasu says."

Yasu gives an excuse to separate the "survivors" of the initial attack. ("I want to keep you apart so that you stay in character.") They call the guesthouse and give the story. Maybe the six first twilight victims are killed at that point; maybe they are left alive, in case somebody does pass Yasu's test.

For Jessica's test, she goes to her room, where Yasu meets her. They talk; eventually Yasu informs Jessica that she failed her test. If she agrees to stay in character and deliver a message to Battler and Maria, one of them might pass; if she reveals that this is a game to them, the offer will be revoked. (Both Battler and Maria will take their tests outside.) Jessica then agrees to deliver a message to Battler.

(Did Jessica reveal that she knew George was killed outside?)



I can believe in an accomplice who goes along with Yasu, believing that nobody is in any true danger. (as seen above)

I can believe in an accomplice who is actively evil. (Genji is the only one who really matches this; I can believe him following Yasu's orders as Kinzo's successor.)

I can believe in an accomplice who goes along because of a threat that can not be directly countered. (Natsuhi in Ep. 5 goes along because of a threat against Krauss.)

I can't believe in an accomplice who goes along because of a threat which can be directly countered. "I have a gun that is pointed right at you. Do as I say or I'll shoot." or "There's a bomb on this island and I'm holding the remote right now." can't be directly countered. "I have a gun in the next room and..." can be countered by running away, or by attacking first. "There's a bomb on this island, and the trigger is elsewhere." can be countered by attacking and trying to force things out of Yasu.

So I can't believe in "Our Confessions", as I understand it. I think that Krauss would be more likely to go Jack Bauer on Yasu.
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Old 2013-05-20, 14:47   Link #32351
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I believe you are pretty close to what ryu meant as "people believing to play a game". In that way you make lots of logical points. But I must disagree with few points:

First of all, the deciding of the next head by solving the epitah. Even if we have heavy implications that kinzo originally thought the headship to be decided this way, I have very hard time believing that any of the relatives would actually accept yasu as the new head. I know this was also heavily implicated to be possible in ep 2, but now we still must remember that yasu ultimately is very crazy and her crossdressing tricks don't necessarily make other ushiromiyas trust her very much. I don't know even if it is legal to actually decide about inheritance by some riddle. Also, if crossdressing teenager girl/boy suddenly appears in front of highly intellect individuals and tells that she is now the new head, how do you think the sisters would actually react? Would they accept her, or would they find some legal trick to have the gold out of her hands? They have no way of knowing that she is actually even related, maybe the word of genji, that also was seen very untrustable as a servant of kinzo from the pov of other relatives.

However you are right that the general layout of ep 4 was probably supposed to resemble this and I can see this happening, if we forget about overanalyzing things.

I can agree with other claims about accomplices, except these:

Quote:
I can believe in an accomplice who goes along with Yasu, believing that nobody is in any true danger.
I believe this, theoretically, but I'm still not convinced this kind of scenario could actually happen as most of the people consider something shady going on when confronted by a madman bribing you with gold. Even though they wouldn't know she is actually a madman, the parts about having suddenly inheritance and tons of gold and every part about hiding this for a long period of time for some reason, at least in me, would raise a shitload of doubt.

Quote:
I can believe in an accomplice who is actively evil.
Evil is a funny word and I don't believe even genji to be "evil" in a way he would be okay with massacre. This topic can be discussed, but I think this claim for an accomplice should be stated "accomplice who has a motive to be an accomplice". I can believe someone for example in the need for money to go along with plan as long as it is properly planned and there is mutual trust between accomplice and culprit. I think any claim that has yasu going "I have lots of gold, now kill for me!" is basically unbelievable as long there is no guarantee of actual wealth or a plan constructed properly with time.

Quote:
There's a bomb on this island and I'm holding the remote right now.
Bomb is a very vague threat. Gun will probably work. But as probably stated before, yasu has no evidence of the existence of any explosive device. Now, we can discuss whether it is logical to be careful around bomb threat, and we cannot go past the fact that characters are indeed individuals who act to what they see is logical, but having a teenager present you a "possible bomb" would probably not be the most believable threat, at least not as believable as gun in your face.

However if combined the effect could be different. I don't know what I would do if conformed with a vague bomb threat, probably be very worried and panic, but thinking non-emotionally and logically, threat that has no evidence of existence is not very threatening
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Old 2013-05-20, 14:49   Link #32352
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If we talk about prime, sure, I can see someone killing others for gold, as we can skip all the unnecessary forcing of murders to become a pure detective story.
What about the fact that no one can cash the money in any way unless they all work together and play nice? The gold can't be spent, even if you somehow get around being arrested for killing your family and being the only survivor. What about the fact that no one gains any benefit at all from killing anyone else even if they could cash the gold, because even the proper shares are more than they can hope to spend in their lifetimes and dividing it equally means there won't be any annoying, life-destroying investigations and rumor mills?

What about the fact that none of the adults could hope to hide this from their children, who they live? Like, say Kyrie shot everyone up but she, Rudolf, and Battler survived. Was Battler in on it? What are they going to tell Ange?

Killing people for the gold only works if you're an idiot who doesn't know the fundamental basics of economics and judicial procedure. Gold can't be an incentive unless everyone on the island is retarded.
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Old 2013-05-20, 15:07   Link #32353
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Killing people for the gold only works if you're an idiot who doesn't know the fundamental basics of economics and judicial procedure. Gold can't be an incentive unless everyone on the island is retarded.
The fact of "gold not being money" is probably already discussed to death, but let's go anyway.

You are right. You make very rational arguments. However concerning the gold, we have lots of examples from kinzo how gold was not actually used as direct money but as a way to maintain the front of rich and powerful family. I don't think wisely used at least all gold should be transferred to money (also being probably impossible, as you stated). This way, and I don't believe it even can be denied, gold always has a certain charm. Even the word "gold" speaks of godly wealth and riches. The desire to obtain this, even if not logical, exists. And people on the island were desperate and struggling with money related problems.

But as I stated, your points are very valid. That's why I stated that I believe any murders in prime were probably very impulsive. Maybe the point of the murders wasn't in reality even the gold, but hatred or accidents or whatever caused a cycle of death. I could see the gold as a possible catalyst in this reaction, even if not being very logical.
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Old 2013-05-20, 15:35   Link #32354
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But on the other hand, I can see the murders happening if they were actually done impulsively. If we start thinking "realistically" the most unrealistic thing in the entire game is probably the concept of murder creating detective story and people acting along it. In this way threatening people as time passes becomes more and more difficult as the time not spent supervising accomplices becomes more short.
Impulse is probably the only theory that makes sense. For premeditation, you run across two specific problems:
  • If Yasu was the one premeditating the whole thing, there's no need to kill anyone "for real," even if you actually are going to kill everyone. Just do a fake murder mystery with the bomb switch flipped on and if you don't get what you want out of it, boom. If you do, switch goes off and everybody's happy. There is absolutely zero risk of anyone noticing the fake deaths are real if they're never real right up until you detonate everyone, and it's easier, and if Battler remembers or whatever you can fix everything. Why go to so much trouble for your magic when the fakery is actually a better miracle if it works?
  • If someone other than Yasu was premeditating a series of murders, you run aground on a sandbar of questions: How were they going to do it? What weapons did they bring with them and how were they planning to use them? When did they come up with the plan? Who do they intend to kill or not kill? If Yasu has a plan for a game, were they accomplices and if so were they made accomplices before they planned to kill everyone or after? If they learned about the bomb, are they planning to use it, and if not, how did they plan to get away with the crime?
Basically if you say "well Kyrie was going to kill everyone anyway, she just had a different plan and Yasu's existence messed with it," then you have to ask how she would've done it if not for that. And if she was contacted ahead of time and only thought up the plan then, what did she do to ensure she would succeed and so on and so forth? Was she going to bring a gun? She couldn't know for sure that there'd be working guns on the island or that she'd get one (and if Yasu was masterminding a fakery, she'd probably only be using blanks in any guns she handed out for use given the ep8 manga explanation for ep1).

This becomes exponentially less plausible the less prepared the premeditating party is. The only thing that works in Yasu's favor as a premeditation culprit is that she has the resources, time, and planning potential to actually do it. For anyone who isn't a regular resident of the island, the plan becomes vastly more complex. What do you do if you're going to stab Hideyoshi and he breaks free and runs screaming into the forest, impossible to find and kill before the end of the weekend if he hides out there? Hell, even if you intend to participate in some fakery or something, how are you going to pull off the killings while sticking to the script? What if you go to ambush somebody while they're sleeping/fake-dead and they walk right out of the bathroom, totally alert and awake? I mean, even fake dead people gotta pee sometime over the length of a day.

It's not completely implausible, but it is harder and harder to explain with the information we actually have before us. If you posit that George brought an M16 assault rifle and a backpack full of ammunition, then sure he could've killed everybody with relatively little effort. But where in the world would we even see evidence that such a thing could've possibly happened? The best we got for an unexplained weapon was Kyrie's knife, which is mentioned a few times from ep6 on. But if Kyrie's plan was to kill over a dozen people with just one knife, she's basically banking on being Solid Snake as a murder plan.

Plus anyone who does know about the bomb has even less of an excuse than Yasu to not just use that. Quietly strangle Yasu in the gold room, have a nice quiet family conference, and after you "go to bed" on the 5th haul ass for the tunnels and flip the switch. Goodnight and goodbye, inconvenient relatives!
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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
So I can't believe in "Our Confessions", as I understand it. I think that Krauss would be more likely to go Jack Bauer on Yasu.
Impossible, as Rudolf is Jack Bauer.
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Old 2013-05-20, 15:56   Link #32355
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Originally Posted by AuraTwilight View Post
Killing people for the gold only works if you're an idiot who doesn't know the fundamental basics of economics and judicial procedure. Gold can't be an incentive unless everyone on the island is retarded.
Just co-signing onto this sentiment, again. Wanting gold is pretty beleivable. Killing for gold does NOT MAKE SENSE, though.

Also, on the matter of the gold being worthless - that's not entirely true. Even if it was difficult, and they didn't exchange them at the proper rates, a single ingot would probably still net a bunch ton of money. The problem as I understood it in EP7 was that it would be improbable to do anything with THAT MUCH gold, especially since it's unmarked and questionably legal in the first place.

If, say, Rosa though, took a single ingot, claiming it was a parting gift from Kinzo (who is well known to MAYBE have gold lying around), she can probably get something for it, right..? ...right? I'm not knowledgable in how that kinda stuff works, but that at least sounds very common-sense to me...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dormin View Post
I don't know even if it is legal to actually decide about inheritance by some riddle. Also, if crossdressing teenager girl/boy suddenly appears in front of highly intellect individuals and tells that she is now the new head, how do you think the sisters would actually react? Would they accept her, or would they find some legal trick to have the gold out of her hands? They have no way of knowing that she is actually even related, maybe the word of genji, that also was seen very untrustable as a servant of kinzo from the pov of other relatives.
Of course the epitaph has no legal standing. It's only from Genji's single throwaway line in EP7 about Kinzo "having already drawn up the papers" that we can assume she's got any possible legal clout at all. The adults stated early on that the Ushiromiya assets are quite varied, and would be awkward to clearly liquidate / divide between themselves, so I imagine the document probably just acknowledges Yasu as a successor at least being equal to the siblings, and the "Head" in name only, or maybe that she has control of his estate, or however that works.

Regarding acknowledgement, well, is Yasu played her cards right, it certainly COULD work, if she was a Head moreso in name, like Young-Kinzo, or Ange after basically leaving all the actual work to Okonogi. Andliterally the only people to really care about gaining the headship are Kratsuhi and Eva. Rudolf and Rosa just want their share of things.

Also, I would mention that Genji, while just a servant, has been mentioned several times as being more or less a third parent to the adults, and his word carries nearly as much weight as Kinzo's probably would. When Beatrice wants to convince Kratsuhi of the bomb's realness, she has the words come from Genji to give them a trustworthy weight. What I'm saying is, if Genji was suddenly like "Yeah, she's totally Kinzo's secret baby. Your dad was in a pretty bad way, guys." I doubt they'd write him off as just LYING.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
Regarding Episode 4, I mentioned that it is quite possible for Gohda and Kumasawa to be acting on the belief that everything is just a game and no murders have actually happened. It might even be possible to set things up so that Krauss, Kyrie, Nanjo, and Jessica believe everything's a game.
Gohda and Kumasawa almost certainly thought things were a game. In Our Confessions they are blatantly lied to.

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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
(Did Jessica reveal that she knew George was killed outside?)
Yes, she did. She mentioned that he had died quickly, in the rose garden, in a spot that can't be seen from her own room. For what's it worth, don't forget George is the only person we KNOW was dead by the time Battler talked to Beatrice in EP4, since he passed the body, out in the rain.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
I can believe in an accomplice who goes along because of a threat that can not be directly countered. (Natsuhi in Ep. 5 goes along because of a threat against Krauss.)
Eh, I wouldn't call Natsuhi an accomplice there. The EP8 manga seems to confirm that Yasu was just troll-framing her for the hell of it in EP5.

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Originally Posted by rogerpepitone View Post
So I can't believe in "Our Confessions", as I understand it. I think that Krauss would be more likely to go Jack Bauer on Yasu.
To be fair, Yasu WAS pointing a gun at them when she was explaining her threat, and she did so late on the night of the 4th, so the relatives were already gathered, the storm had already cut them off, the grate to Kuwadorian was locked, and she didn't even explain the actual bomb mechanism, just some vague "trigger that only I know about". Furthermore (and I'm just trusting Wanderer's translation, it seems they worked pretty darned hard on it), she lied even FURTHER by stating that she could trigger the bomb to explode at any time.

Ah, I guess what I'm getting at is that is the characters know everything WE know about the bomb, and status of the other accomplices, the solution seems simple - tackle rush the meido-chan. If, however, it's something vague, that might be activated at literally any time, and my only alternative is to try and make it two miles acorss an island of uncultivated forest during a typhoon, and BEFORE said bomb-holder suspects I've betrayed our agreement ... hell, and that's just if you want to make off, yourself, without mention of getting two others who, according to this agreement you'll have broken, are supposed to be in certain places at certain times ... I'unno. At least Krauss felt guilty about it.
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Old 2013-05-20, 16:12   Link #32356
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Originally Posted by Kealym View Post
Also, on the matter of the gold being worthless - that's not entirely true. Even if it was difficult, and they didn't exchange them at the proper rates, a single ingot would probably still net a bunch ton of money. The problem as I understood it in EP7 was that it would be improbable to do anything with THAT MUCH gold, especially since it's unmarked and questionably legal in the first place.

If, say, Rosa though, took a single ingot, claiming it was a parting gift from Kinzo (who is well known to MAYBE have gold lying around), she can probably get something for it, right..? ...right? I'm not knowledgable in how that kinda stuff works, but that at least sounds very common-sense to me...
I calculated it a while back; a single ingot is worth several hundred thousand dollars. Not really enough to get the adults out of their troubles, but a decent amount of money.

Problem is, where'd it come from? There's no legal way to sell it, so you'd need to go via an illicit source, meaning you have to know one and they'd have to be willing to basically melt it down for you. And you would get taken to the cleaners on value. Kyrie might know a guy, but I doubt the other adults do.

Honestly, I just don't think Ryukishi understands this issue and earnestly believes that "finders keepers" is the whole of the law with respect to Kinzo owning the gold. For example, the very idea that he used the gold as collateral at least acknowledges the gold cannot be easily spent... however, no sane bank is going to give him a loan with that gold as collateral.

Yes, it's ten tons of pure gold. That's lovely, it's worth billions. But the guy who has it doesn't actually own it, and in the event he defaults on your loan and you demand he pay you back, what do you do? If you file in court, you have to acknowledge that the gold exists, at which point the governments of Japan/the USA/Italy probably step in and say it's war spoils and needs to go to one of them. If you try to quietly collect on your loan... how? Are you gonna send guys to go break Kinzo's legs and haul the gold off with forklifts and speedboats?

Shit, the island itself is far better collateral for a loan than the gold under it. Even the freaking torpedos have greater value and sale potential than the gold. Krauss had the right idea mortgaging the place, at least that's a loan that makes sense.
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Old 2013-05-20, 16:30   Link #32357
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Quote:
It's not completely implausible, but it is harder and harder to explain with the information we actually have before us. If you posit that George brought an M16 assault rifle and a backpack full of ammunition, then sure he could've killed everybody with relatively little effort. But where in the world would we even see evidence that such a thing could've possibly happened? The best we got for an unexplained weapon was Kyrie's knife, which is mentioned a few times from ep6 on. But if Kyrie's plan was to kill over a dozen people with just one knife, she's basically banking on being Solid Snake as a murder plan.
Now I don't think the murder weapon is very relevant. Knox's/Van diene's are taken very literally in the game, as I personally would intepretate them as "something that has not been implied can't happen", some things like people for example strangling someone should not be considered a "weapon X" and therefore possibly happening. I see your point but things like guns are implied to exist on island and therefore using them to kill others should not be a very big deal, at least if not used in deus ex way. But yes, I don't see george smuggling any weapons any time soon. So theoritically I believe it would be possible to someone gain an access to a gun and carry out the murders fairly easily. But then again, I'd say that is again very impulsive and not planned scenario.

Also Kyrie Snake totally makes sense.

Quote:
Regarding acknowledgement, well, is Yasu played her cards right, it certainly COULD work, if she was a Head moreso in name, like Young-Kinzo, or Ange after basically leaving all the actual work to Okonogi. Andliterally the only people to really care about gaining the headship are Kratsuhi and Eva. Rudolf and Rosa just want their share of things.
I agree rudolf and rosa just want SOME money. But I could never see for example eva agreeing with anything came up by yasu, unless that involves somehow passing the headship to her, and even then I find it highly unplausible. Again, I think rudolf and rosa are the only siblings that would be willing to even consider yasu to be a head. How would simply gold calm the shitstorm made by eva and krauss about the leadership? To me this is probably one of the biggest problems concerning the epitah and the transferring of the head-title.

Quote:
Shit, the island itself is far better collateral for a loan than the gold under it. Even the freaking torpedos have greater value and sale potential than the gold. Krauss had the right idea mortgaging the place, at least that's a loan that makes sense.
To be honest I don't think ryu ever even considered these factors. I believe that he just wrote the gold into existence with attempt to create an "alternative motive for murder", and that's pretty much it. Certainly I believe that every argument of gold not being actually legal and therefore logical to try and achieve to be true, but I certainly also believe that the existence of gold itself acts as certain factor, that combined with cycles of hatred and loaded guns, could lead to murder.

Also krauss and his turism was right all along. They should have just waited a little longer or then let him invest his money into moon tourism, the rising trend
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Old 2013-05-20, 17:36   Link #32358
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Episode 4
`"H, ......hello. `@/
`......Is it Jessica?`@` Jessica?!`@` What is it, are you alright?!?!"`\
`".........Heh, ......heheheheh... `@`......They...got me......"`@
`"Are you alright?!`@` Did you get injured?!`@` I'll come to save you right now!!"`\
`"No, ......it's already too late.`@` You see, ......I'm already dead...`@` Ahahaha, when you come, Battler, I'll be a corpse with its head split open."`@
`"Craaaaaaap, that damn geezer!!`@` Wait there, I'm coming right now!!"`\
`"Listen, Battler!!`@` Listen closely, alright...?`@` .........I know very well why Gohda-san and Kumasawa-san were evasive about the time the six in the dining hall were killed. `@/
!s0`.........Those guys, `/
!d800`.........aren't, `/
!d1000`...human."`/
`"Wh, ...whaat?!`@` What are you saying........."`\
!s0`"I saw it, so what am I supposed to do?!! `/
!sd@`Those guys warp and set up barriers, ahhaha, and do whatever they want, you see...?`@` It's some kind of manga, an anime, ......no, we seriously can't keep up.`\
`......Ahhahhahhah......`@`...From the very beginning, it was useless to fight......`@` They really aren't opponents that you'll be able to fight with that hat-stand spear you're so proud of..."`\
`A line of blood dripped down from Jessica's forehead......`\
`"George nii-san is gone too.`@` That was...an instant death...`@/
`.........Heheh, the next test is yours, Battler.`@` .........I wonder if your test will be the same as ours......`@/
`.........Be careful, ......and don't get the wrong idea."`@
`"Y, you mean for the test...?"`\
`"No.`@` .........Don't get the wrong idea, `/
!d600`......about the enemy being human. `@/
`.........The enemy...isn't human.`@` ...They're demons, ......which can control a terrifying magic at will. `@/
`No matter what, ......don't get the wrong idea about that......`@/
`*cough*, *cough*cough*!!, take......care......"`\
`A line of blood dripped down from Jessica's mouth as well.`@
`......The left half of her head started hurting.`@
`Jessica realized that she was about to return to the corpse she had been.`\
`"...............When 13 people die, the Golden Witch...revives.`@` Six are killed along with Mom.`@` That's the first twilight.`@` ......Then George nii-san and I are killed, for the second twilight.`@` ......So once five more people are killed, the ceremony is complete, ......and the witch will revive.`\
`.........I hope Dad and the rest are safe...`@`......If they aren't, `@`.........the one to test you, `@`might be the resurrected Beatrice herself..."`\
`Battler already didn't understand what Jessica was saying.`@
`But from her tone, he realized that she knew she was about to die.`@
`So even though he didn't understand the situation, he urged her to give it her all.`\
`"......Haha, I said I'm already dead.`@` .........See ya.`@` It looks like it's time. `@/
`......Good luck on your test.`@` I hope you...can become the head. `@/
`........................"`\
`"Jessica?`@` Jessica?!`@` Hey, answer me!!`@` Jessicaaaaaaaaaaa!!"`@

Jessica mentions George is dead, but AFAICT, she says nothing about where his body is.

The one problem I had with my above explanation is that, if Jessica had mentioned George being in the garden, she'd never believe that the game would hold up after Battler went through the garden and failed to find a dead George.

When Kinzo was making his deal, countries were probably still on the gold standard. It would have been comparatively easy to make the deals.

As for selling the gold, remember, it's a big world. There are plenty of countries that don't have the heavy regulations where the Ushiromiyas could convert it.
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Old 2013-05-20, 17:45   Link #32359
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Yeah but the adults need the money relatively quickly, and again, the problem always remains that you need everyone on board for this sort of thing, so only absolute mutual cooperation and everybody getting their cut can make sure it works out right.

I imagine it's possible to convert enough of the gold in time (although maybe not; while there's a lot of places to move gold, there's not a lot of places to move a significant portion of the world's entire gold supply) to get everyone the money they need, but cash or a bank account are far more attractive. Actually, Kinzo probably had time and resources enough to convert the gold himself, and probably should have... but I guess Kinzo is sentimentally attached to it.

EDIT: And actually a country being on the gold standard would make pushing the gold out much harder. 10t of gold bullion is enough to seriously destabilize gold-based economies if it's all dumped at once.

EDIT EDIT: Well okay it's actually more like 0.5% of a year's production of gold, but that's still not a tiny number in actual monetary and market value.
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This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
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Last edited by Renall; 2013-05-20 at 17:58.
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Old 2013-05-21, 13:24   Link #32360
Dormin
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And one additional thing about gold,

I totally believe gold is plausible motive for murder. There are lots of people that would be willing to kill for gold, even for smaller amounts. People are funny in that way.

The problem is that the characters in umineko unarguably posses the necessary level of intelligence to see the problems of illegal gold. In this way the entire "motive for killing because gold" becomes bit sketchy even though I strongly believe ryu meant it as possible motive for the killer.
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