AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > Anime Discussion > Older Series > Retired > Umineko

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2013-07-27, 02:29   Link #32561
ALPHA-Beatrice
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
He may have protected her from commiting a logic error. This makes the actual content, of what she was about to say, redundant.
How so? If Beatrice is caught in a Logic Error, isn't it Battler's victory? It doesn't make it redundant, it proves there's a weak point in Lady Beatrice's theory.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone
As long as Battler didn't directly refer to the body, Beatrice could have used the "sucession of titles" to dodge that attack and could even claim that "Kinzo didn't die by a natural death" in red.
You criticize my red for being weak, but then you propose such a weak Red Truth on the part of Lady Beatrice that we both denied, because we both know for a fact That Kinzo died a natural death


Even if Beatrice claimed the succession of titles theory, It doesn't change that a Natural Death occurred. At least one death can be explained without magic. It's basic assumption to go: "If one death was natural, logically that means all other deaths are logical or at the very least can be explained away logically and without magic."

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
The story showed clearly that even becoming the new head would still not release him from paying his siblings their part of the inheritance. Following that, his embezzelment of money could also be easily exposed.

The "logical reason to hide it" was just given in the previous paragraph
I acknowledge the possibility Krauss was embezzling money from Kinzo. But I still don't resign.

Turn the Chessboard Over, we state that Krauss's reason for covering up Kinzo's death is because he embezzled money. Is Natsuhi keeping up her delusion for Krauss? The Golden Sorcerer Battler clearly stated at the end of the 5th game: That Natsuhi was pure and faithful

As such, there's no way that Natsuhi would purposefully manipulate her siblings, just to cover Krauss's behind. Is Natsuhi truly delusional? Knox's 8th! A case cannot be solved without presentation of evidence

It was never confirmed that Natsuhi is or ever was delusional.

If Krauss really did embezzle money from Kinzo, it makes even less sense for Krauss to allow Kinzo's corpse to be on the island on October 4th, 1986.(IE: The day of the conference).

The very last thing Krauss wants is for the Siblings to find out he was embezzling money, correct? So the very last thing Krauss would want at that time in 1984, is for the siblings to raise suspicion about him.

It would be more logical, presuming that Krauss was the embezzlement culprit to announce Kinzo's death in 1984, have him buried and establish trust as the Family Head. Eva's investigation is nowhere complete by this time, and it's entirely possible to move assets, etc overseas.

However, I don't believe Krauss embezzled money. Because the Ushiromiya wealth as a whole was drying out.

All of the Adult siblings were losing money hand and foot, Kasumi pretty much admitted this in her pursuit of Ange during the 4th game. The 'Glory' of the Ushiromiya family was shaky in 1986, and only got shakier after Rokkenjima Prime.

Gold is an Asset, not money. It cannot be used per say as bartender(IE: You can't take gold out of a ATM machine). Sure, you could convert it and trade for it. But it's confirmed that Jessica, Natsuhi and Krauss lived at the main island with Kinzo.

We could use the argument that Kinzo established some kind of bank firm at the island. Though it can't be proven, it is plausible with his assets. Provided they haven't dried out like I think they have.

How can I prove that the Ushiromiya wealth died out, other than the situation of the Siblings? It was mentioned specifically in the games that Kinzo could call upon a miracle, but the cost of that miracle was everything.(IE: It only happened once). Using a Real-World analogy, Kinzo probably had his fair share of initial successes to restore the Ushiromiya's wealth.

However, there wouldn't be a 2nd success, or a second wave of successes. And eventually, via giving away money to his entire family they ended up right back where they started.

That could be the true reason that Kinzo hates the siblings(IE: his children)!

In fairness, I'll now reveal a scene that I just recalled that prove that Erika's theory was partially correct. A witch should truly be honorable, even in defeat.

In the first game, Krauss reveals to Natsuhi that the Gold actually existed. This would prove that Krauss had a deceitful personality or at least intention.


**The Red Sword I created pierced my body, drawing blood. As I gushed out of my mouth, I smirked.**

However, this Red Truth will also prove Natsuhi's innocence without doubt.

Natsuhi was genuinely shocked and upset at the 'betrayal' of Krauss. That she fought on his behalf and honor, and yet he manipulated her even covertly.

But it's important to note that Krauss got that bar of gold through various sources. The original gold bar that Kinzo allowed a friend to examine. At no point is Krauss remotely aware of Kuwadorian or the mansion, and thereby where the gold resides.

I present a different theory surrounding the embezzlement. Krauss didn't(or rather, couldn't) embezzle Kinzo if his only real tangible asset was the gold. But rather, the Ushiromiya Family used the wealth it had and the pond dried up. When that pond dried up, the siblings concocted the scheme known as 'embezzlement'. If there was embezzlement, the entire family is guilty of it.

Well, I have to be careful. When I say 'Entire Family', I could've spoken of the Cousins, invalidating my Blue Truth. All of the Adult Siblings took on more than they could chew. This doesn't implicate the cousins in any way.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Irrelevant! Natsuhi was the one who wanted to protect the honor of the family. The story showed multiple times that Krauss was a loving and caring family father. With that in mind it is only natural that Krauss would help his wife to protect the family's honor. And his embezzelment of money behind everyone's back is "deceitful" as well
But then, why damage that said honor by engaging in embezzlement? Krauss himself said that he established business connections across Japan(I refuse to say the world, let's just say Japan for in all reasonable likelihood). There's no reason for Krauss to directly embezzle Kinzo(if in fact, he had any wealth remaining by 1984 as I speculate he didn't)




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
OK, I agree with that. Krauss doing it to help Natsuhi, satisfies this definition, as well as Krauss doing it to hide the fact that there is no money for his siblings to squeeze out of him.
If Natsuhi's main goal in the Umineko story is to protect the honor and glory of the Ushiromiya family, then Krauss's embezzlement and deceit of even his wife is the furthest thing from helping Natsuhi.

And I've stated above my hypothesis, that the reason there's no money is because all of the siblings, including him soaked all the water out of the pond.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
It was shown by the narration itself. Even if it "could" be a lie, a more blatant exposition (or "clue") than directly by the narrative, aside from red truth, doesn't exist.
Red Truth accepted. However, I use it against you as well to establish the truth of my hypothesis.

I believe it was early in the First Novel(one of the earlier games, first or second, I'm not sure) that the narration pointed out just how charitable Kinzo was, and how much the Ushiromiya siblings relied on it for upstart capital. So, by the narrative, my blue theory is plausible.

The 'Narrative', as well as the white text used by the characters in the Umineko Story exist in a kind of warped space in the middle of the Red and Blue. In a sense, as a "Golden Truth" of the reader. We can choose to accept certain parts of the narrative or white text that's believable, or deny that which is seemingly implausible to us individually as readers.

Just as the Golden Sorcerer proclaimed there's no way to truly identify Kinzo's corpse, there's also no way to independently verify the truth of what happened. No matter how many bottles Maria/Rosa wrote, the catbox would always remain closed.


In this sense, I have to agree with Lady Bernkastel. Because we can't independently verify the truth, we cannot accept any of it as truth. Or in other words, Clair had hoped that someone in the world would understand her. But if she's not believable, how can she be 'understood'? Or, even if someone understood her, they wouldn't know if they truly did and could only speculate. There really is no hope in any of the many worlds for Clair/Beatrice(Rosa)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
"It takes at least 2 people to create a universe" this could be seen as a metaphor for "it takes at least 2 people to create a gameboard". If we assume that they created their own little gameboard outside of the running "big" gameboard, then the older Beatrice could indeed fill in the role of the "game master". That scene did happen in an unknown place in the meta-world, so it is possible. And even if not: It did not influence the logic battle at all. Yours doesn't as well.
Ryukishi himself proclaimed that the Gold could be used by the game's "pieces". Which would concur to the theory that the Golden Truth is an accepted truth of participants. However, the reason it can be inferior to red is quite simple: An Accepted Truth is inferior to the actual truth.

In other words, theories cannot replace actual fact. A theory that Man can defy gravity cannot replace the known fact that the Law of Pull exists. We're stuck on the ground whether we like it or not.

It might not have influenced the logic battle, but it gave us a clearer definition of the Golden Truth and its laws and how it works.

We're independent readers who exist both in and outside of the cat box at the same time. All of our theories may eventually one day pierce the heart of the truth. It might have been too early to use Gold for Krauss.

But even you can agree that I can use gold for Natushi. The Red statements from Battler, and facts from the previous games conclude overwhelmingly that Natsuhi didn't participate in Krauss's deception(if he did indeed deceive)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
It was indeed established! At least before I posted this
*ahaha.wav*
Not necessarily in the red text, and primarily by Yasu's theory. The closest we come is "Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead at the starting time of all games."

However, I now intend to make another argument to support my theory that Kinzo died on October 4th, 1986 before the Family Conference.

According to Ronove, my master Lambda-Sama set it at a 24:00 session. Kinzo could've only existed within this session(IE: Within the Games themselves). To declare Kinzo alive or dead outside of the two-day session would mean that Kinzo only existed outside the Cat Box.

Which is utterly illogical, wouldn't you say? One of the most important characters in the series, might as well not have been a character? And rather than pretending a dead man's alive for 2 years, it's much more logical to presume he died on the day of the Conference.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Why did he have to oversee a corpse? Also as I said, the one who did that was actually Natsuhi. Of course Genji was part of the "scam-group".
We've already solidly confirmed that Natushi is 'pure and faithful' and therefore isn't deceitful. However, we also know it hasn't been proven that Natsuhi is clinically insane.(She's the most critical of Jessica for her talking in a rough masculine manner. Hardly the type of ridicule I'd expect from an insane person(who generally doesn't care about perceptions. The crazies just are crazy)

I don't believe Natushi is deceitful nor insane. I believe she truly believed(or had reason to believe) in Kinzo's existence. We cannot deny for example that any of Natsuhi's conversations with Kinzo happened before he died. Giving the impression that he was still alive.


And I have proof of this hypothesis, the first game!(or was it the second?) Eva placed a note inside Kinzo's door, this was used to fabricate against Natsuhi. But what it proved was that Kinzo 'existed' at some point and then for some reason left the room. This scene, to me is an allegory. An allegory that Kinzo existed at the start of the game, then shortly afterwards died.(This incident happened at the First Twilight, and I believe before any murders were discovered. Though I could be mistaken)


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
That scene was very likely an illusion and didn't happen at all, just like "Beato's and Virgillia's fight in the garden" from EP3 and "Natsuhi drinking tea with the family's alchemist Beatrice" from EP5. Bringing Kinzo to the conference was a lie to help Natsuhi protect the honor of the family and to appease the heated emotions of his siblings. (and to make sure no one find out about his embezzelment of money)
This lie however, wasn't close to a solution for Krauss or Natsuhi. By this point, the siblings had grown impatient with Krauss and Natsuhi's dancing around, and some temporary lie only brought them a little bit of time.



I also argue that if the first game isn't Rokkenjima Prime, none of the games can be Rokkenjima Prime. Because the first game is literally a time where the reader knew nothing of the Meta-World, or of Beatrice's existence.In other words, it's the closest thing to(and IMO it is) what happened during the actual two day crisis.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
As said above, it simply didn't happen. He was scared of the vegenance of his siblings, should they find out that all the money from Kinzo is gone.
And if they did an audit and compared their own financial records, it's just as plausible that they have themselves to blame for the Ushiromiya's downfall in my hypothesis.

At the very least, it can't be disputed that the other siblings are less than judge worthy characters themselves for wanting to grab inheritance money as their main means to solve their problems.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Having the siblings expose all of his money embezzlements, is certainly not equal to "most to gain"
Here, I'll reference the first game. In the siblings conditions, of the 20 million they thought to believe to have had in assets, Krauss would recieve 12.5 million. Also, Eva allowed Krauss to conduct the audit. As long as the siblings themselves could confirm the amounts matched up.

It wouldn't take much(if Krauss was indeed embezzling)to have the amount match up artificially with a paux-audit. Allowing him to get away with the majority of cash shares.

Hence, at no time did Krauss ever really show panic about the situation. In fact, it was always Natushi who acted indignant to the questioning. His position as successor basically made him the chicken watching over the hen house. The only way for the siblings to truly get an independent audit would be to drag Krauss down from succession.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Oh I just realized that this is completely irrelevant to both the "rosatrice vs shkanontrice" discussion and the "is Kinzo alive or dead?" discussion, so I will simply skip it as it would be waste of time to argue about that!
Very well, I confirm in Red that we may never agree on this part of the Umineko story and thereby its meaningless to our debate.









Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Before I answer that I must correct you first: You said "Kinzo died at the starting time of all games", and interpreted the "starting time" as the first twilight. The mistake you made was that it wasn't "died", but "is dead" instead. It was actually "Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games". Sure you can argue that "he died one second before the starting time of the game", but then we are back to Knox's 8th, as you have not given any clues yet, that show a certain time of death for Kinzo. I can still base everything on both the scene you just quoted and the very first scene in EP1 where Nanjo tells his prediction about Kinzo's estimated point of time of death. Also the "starting point" of the game was hinted to be the start of the first day, so 4th of October at 0:00, long before Battler reached Rokkenjima.
I realized my reading error, ironically when I went to sleep over it. I thought about the words 'is', and 'at the' and I realized that those words strongly implicate a death before the start of the games.

However, that by itself doesn't mean my theory about the time of Kinzo's death is denied! I'll teach you starting now, that Kinzo is neither alive nor dead except at the start of the game! Behold, my Red Truth!

Dr. Nanjo projected that Ushiromiya Kinzo had 3 months to live. According to Yasu, he died in November of 1984. According to this theory, he should've died in August of 1984, not November!(August is 3 months before the October date)

Well, it depends on how one goes about counting. If one excludes August, it's possible for November to fit the 3 month time frame(IE: You don't count August as a 'month', because it's already the month of August).

So I'll admit that my red has a little bit of wiggle room, but not much.



Magical scenes themselves of course, obviously aren't real. But we can use them as allegories. Both in the anime and the novel, we see that to begin the game, Kinzo throws his ruby ring into the storm. We can signify this as the last living moment for Kinzo. In real world terms, what if Kinzo handed the ring to Genji and shortly died thereafter?


Even if Rosa(or anyone one else besides Kinzo) inherited the ring after Kinzo's death. They themselves could not have sent the invitation to the Family Conference. The invitation was sent while Ushiromiya Kinzo was still alive.

The Conference itself is absolute proof that Kinzo was alive at least until 0:00:00 of October 4th, 1986.

Theoretically speaking, it could have been his servant(Genji) to write the invitational letters. But I've no doubt it was on Kinzo's behalf or suggestion.

Knox's 8th! It's forbidden for cases to be resolved without clues. Can it be shown that Krauss at any point knew(or at the very least suspected) Kinzo's death? If it can't be shown, then the theory that Krauss covered up Kinzo's death can't possibly be accepted.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Can you proof that Bernkastel was the game master of the main game of EP7 (aside from tea party)? It is more likely (or at least just as likely) that Aurora was the game master.
The 8th game! Aurora proclaimed that "It's Battler's game, and it is his right to weave his own game." She also acknowledged Lady Bernkastel as another Master of the Game.

She also proclaimed(or at least showed) more interest in reading the book then actually creating it. That's why she asked Bernkastel to write the truth. If she wanted to do it, she could've easily done it herself. She just didn't want to.







Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
To win enough time to get back his money that he lost, to pay his siblings' share of the inheritance and by that also abiding Natsuhi's wish to "protect the honor of the family".
He had 2 years! And I doubt Eva's investigation was anywhere near complete by 1984(we can also doubt its veracity considering how spiteful Eva is of Krauss as well as the other siblings. In fact, she's the most antagonist of them all.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Natsuhi probably said something along the lines of "we cannot simply burn the head's corpse or bury it somewhere in the wilderness! that would be too disgraceful! We have to preserve it for now!" or something along these lines. Of course during the conference in 1986 they had no other choice, or it was simply Yasu doing it out of her own convenience.
I can concur to this. In the event of Kinzo's death in 1986. Don't you think it's unreasonable for a rich, elite, wealthy family to be unable to plan a basic funeral for 2 years? However, I can concur to this theory if in 1986, Natsuhi discovers Kinzo's dead corpse and within those 48 hours of being stuck between the typhoons, they may have had no choice but to burn the body, considering the siblings false suspicions. But I think burning the body makes no sense from Krauss's perspective. We know that the stench filled the entire mansion and basically alerts everyone to Kinzo's body. What was the point of that?

Turn the Chessboard Around.

If Krauss embezzled Kinzo, there's no way Krauss would want his corpse, or anything at all to do with him to be found by the siblings. And as you state, there's no way Natsuhi would've concurred to burning Kinzo's corpse



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
For the endless ninth time! Because of "family honor" and "money embezzlement"
I listed my contentions above, my good friend. If you want to make it easier on yourself, you can concise my argument into categories, ignoring my specific statements or theories. As long as the same meaning is kept. Don't worry, the meaning of all of my words are the known meaning in which they are used in the English Language.

So indeed, I apologize for any repetiveness and if I give you the privilege to concise the argument to eliminate any such in my recent counterargument here.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
I guess that should do it for the "kinzo is alive" part for now. If you think you can argue back, I still have a hidden ace in my sleeve and also A LOT of "Knox's 2nd" for every single invalid red truth that you wrote.
Though I used the Red, my argument isn't consistent of the Magic Theory. Nor did I use the Magic Theory as a detective technique. By this, Knox's 2nd has no authority over my proposed theories. Red is simply more authoritative(as well as my favorite color). If you prefer me only to use Blue, then I'll use only blue from here on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
But I, the Chaos Sorcerer will for now leave you alone with all these counter arguments (don't forget the ones from Dormin as well!)
This has been a very pleasant debate, Chaos Sorcerer. I look forward to your response. And perhaps later I'll overlook Dormin's post but I believe I may have covered all theories against my statement that Kinzo at least died on October 4th, 1986.

Last edited by ALPHA-Beatrice; 2013-07-27 at 02:55.
ALPHA-Beatrice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-27, 03:21   Link #32562
NarutoAnimeLoverRyan
Junior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Mililani.
I say..Interesting...reminds me of stories that my old home boys use to me back in high school.
NarutoAnimeLoverRyan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-27, 15:24   Link #32563
GreyZone
"Senior" "Member"
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
From now on I will clearly state, which part of the discussion has become "offtopic", because we either agree on it more or less, or it has nothing to do with the main points (Kinzo's death time and "Beatrice") that we disagree with. Beware the power of copy & paste!


Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
How so? If Beatrice is caught in a Logic Error, isn't it Battler's victory? It doesn't make it redundant, it proves there's a weak point in Lady Beatrice's theory.
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.



Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
You criticize my red for being weak, but then you propose such a weak Red Truth on the part of Lady Beatrice that we both denied, because we both know for a fact That Kinzo died a natural death
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Even if Beatrice claimed the succession of titles theory, It doesn't change that a Natural Death occurred. At least one death can be explained without magic. It's basic assumption to go: "If one death was natural, logically that means all other deaths are logical or at the very least can be explained away logically and without magic."
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.



Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I acknowledge the possibility Krauss was embezzling money from Kinzo. But I still don't resign.
Very well. Struggle as you wish!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Turn the Chessboard Over, we state that Krauss's reason for covering up Kinzo's death is because he embezzled money. Is Natsuhi keeping up her delusion for Krauss? The Golden Sorcerer Battler clearly stated at the end of the 5th game: That Natsuhi was pure and faithful
"sacrificing herself to protect her family (preventing Krauss's siblings from law suiting him) and the family's honor (prevent Krauss's inability of using money to become public knowledge)" would, as far as I see it, fit that red truth. Usually people would say that her actions are "noble". So I don't see a problem with that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
As such, there's no way that Natsuhi would purposefully manipulate her siblings, just to cover Krauss's behind. Is Natsuhi truly delusional? Knox's 8th! A case cannot be solved without presentation of evidence
It was clearly shown that Natsuhi loves her family and would do anything to protect them (Krauss and Jessica). In this case, the only way to save them is to lie, as "appeasing the siblings somehow" is impossible, as all of them are after money to save their own asses as well, which does not exist anymore because of Krauss's incompetence.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
It was never confirmed that Natsuhi is or ever was delusional.
Oh, look! Natsuhi is drinking tea together with the family alchemist Beatrice! Nope... "Right now Natsuhi is drinking tea alone in the garden". And even if you say "that scene was a complete narrative lie", if she had to lie in order to protect what was dear to her, she would do it. She was doing it all for her faithfulness and convinction. I would consider that "pure" as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
If Krauss really did embezzle money from Kinzo, it makes even less sense for Krauss to allow Kinzo's corpse to be on the island on October 4th, 1986.(IE: The day of the conference).

The very last thing Krauss wants is for the Siblings to find out he was embezzling money, correct? So the very last thing Krauss would want at that time in 1984, is for the siblings to raise suspicion about him.
Let me propose the following theory: Krauss did indeed want to get rid of the corpse. As he was convinced that he was the new family head, he ordered Genji to do it, while being sure that he would follow his order. However the true family head, Yasu (also known as Beatrice), ordered him to preserve and hide Kinzo's corpse instead, to be able to use it for blackmailing Krauss and Natsuhi at a later point, or possibly as revenge against Natsuhi for throwing her down the cliff. This theory is only possible with BOTH Shkanontrice being the truth and Kinzo being dead, so it is impossible for you adapt it for own use.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
It would be more logical, presuming that Krauss was the embezzlement culprit to announce Kinzo's death in 1984, have him buried and establish trust as the Family Head. Eva's investigation is nowhere complete by this time, and it's entirely possible to move assets, etc overseas.
That doesn't change the fact that his siblings would want to have part of the inheritance. So when they would come to the mansion and say "give us our share", what was he supposed to do?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
However, I don't believe Krauss embezzled money. Because the Ushiromiya wealth as a whole was drying out.
Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Has there been any indication that the siblings, aside from Krauss himself, had access to Kinzo's bank account? If not, then "Kinzo's wealth" would remain untouched and it is known, that Kinzo has always been successful with money (in emergencies he also had access to the gold). So it is out of the question that Kinzo would go bankrupt by himself

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
All of the Adult siblings were losing money hand and foot, Kasumi pretty much admitted this in her pursuit of Ange during the 4th game. The 'Glory' of the Ushiromiya family was shaky in 1986, and only got shakier after Rokkenjima Prime.
You just hurt yourself with that! This just makes my point stronger, that the only person who is known to be truly successful in terms of money in the Ushiromiya family, has died in 1984!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Gold is an Asset, not money. It cannot be used per say as bartender(IE: You can't take gold out of a ATM machine). Sure, you could convert it and trade for it. But it's confirmed that Jessica, Natsuhi and Krauss lived at the main island with Kinzo.
Krauss said, that he has contacts to the black market, that could convert the gold into money over time!
But wait... why am I arguing against that?
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
We could use the argument that Kinzo established some kind of bank firm at the island. Though it can't be proven, it is plausible with his assets. Provided they haven't dried out like I think they have.
Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Also I don't see the relevance of that.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
How can I prove that the Ushiromiya wealth died out, other than the situation of the Siblings? It was mentioned specifically in the games that Kinzo could call upon a miracle, but the cost of that miracle was everything.(IE: It only happened once). Using a Real-World analogy, Kinzo probably had his fair share of initial successes to restore the Ushiromiya's wealth.

However, there wouldn't be a 2nd success, or a second wave of successes. And eventually, via giving away money to his entire family they ended up right back where they started.

That could be the true reason that Kinzo hates the siblings(IE: his children)!
Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique! All of that is pure speculation and doesn't have the power of red truth at all! The "miracle" could also be just referring to the so-called "resurrection of Beatrice".

Dlanor said that pieces can not be out of character! Therefore neither the description in the initial Episodes, nor the description in Episode 8 can be considered "out of character". Since both are "in character", the description of neither is absolute and must be somewhere between strict and kind. Therefore him "hating" his children is not an established fact!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
In fairness, I'll now reveal a scene that I just recalled that prove that Erika's theory was partially correct. A witch should truly be honorable, even in defeat.

In the first game, Krauss reveals to Natsuhi that the Gold actually existed. This would prove that Krauss had a deceitful personality or at least intention.


**The Red Sword I created pierced my body, drawing blood. As I gushed out of my mouth, I smirked.**

However, this Red Truth will also prove Natsuhi's innocence without doubt.

Natsuhi was genuinely shocked and upset at the 'betrayal' of Krauss. That she fought on his behalf and honor, and yet he manipulated her even covertly.

But it's important to note that Krauss got that bar of gold through various sources. The original gold bar that Kinzo allowed a friend to examine. At no point is Krauss remotely aware of Kuwadorian or the mansion, and thereby where the gold resides.

I present a different theory surrounding the embezzlement. Krauss didn't(or rather, couldn't) embezzle Kinzo if his only real tangible asset was the gold. But rather, the Ushiromiya Family used the wealth it had and the pond dried up. When that pond dried up, the siblings concocted the scheme known as 'embezzlement'. If there was embezzlement, the entire family is guilty of it.

Well, I have to be careful. When I say 'Entire Family', I could've spoken of the Cousins, invalidating my Blue Truth. All of the Adult Siblings took on more than they could chew. This doesn't implicate the cousins in any way.
So you finally admit defeat at least regarding Krauss? A wise decision! Now just Natsuhi, Kinzo and Rosa are left! You sacrificed Krauss to strenghten Natsuhi's defense, but don't worry, I will crush that as well!




Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
But then, why damage that said honor by engaging in embezzlement? Krauss himself said that he established business connections across Japan(I refuse to say the world, let's just say Japan for in all reasonable likelihood). There's no reason for Krauss to directly embezzle Kinzo(if in fact, he had any wealth remaining by 1984 as I speculate he didn't)
But his buisness connections are what almost led him to being bankrupt to begin with! He said himself, that he used the ideas that his buisness partners gave him, but none of those worked out! Just like the idea to "turn Rokkenjima into a holiday resort" didn't work out!






Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
If Natsuhi's main goal in the Umineko story is to protect the honor and glory of the Ushiromiya family, then Krauss's embezzlement and deceit of even his wife is the furthest thing from helping Natsuhi.
Krauss embezzlement already happened before Kinzo's death in 1984! He was sure he could get all his money back by "borrowing" some money from from his father, but due to his own incompetence, he only had losses as well. After Kinzo's death in 1984, Natsuhi, who was hiding behind her husband all the time, started to involve herself into that matter as well and Krauss started to be more careful with his money, but he was not able to gain back what was lost until the conference in 1986.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
And I've stated above my hypothesis, that the reason there's no money is because all of the siblings, including him soaked all the water out of the pond.
Again, your assumption, that Kinzo lost all of his money by himself like his children, is very unlikely, escpacially considering that he was still in possession of the gold. In fact I still didn't see any clue regarding Kinzo going bunkrupt, aside from "that miracle" which you can interpret in many different ways aside from yours. And what about the 1 billion credit card? Will you dismiss it as a "narrative lie" as well?




Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Red Truth accepted. However, I use it against you as well to establish the truth of my hypothesis.

I believe it was early in the First Novel(one of the earlier games, first or second, I'm not sure) that the narration pointed out just how charitable Kinzo was, and how much the Ushiromiya siblings relied on it for upstart capital. So, by the narrative, my blue theory is plausible.
Again, Kinzo is still in possession of the gold and there is still the "1 billion credit card".

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
The 'Narrative', as well as the white text used by the characters in the Umineko Story exist in a kind of warped space in the middle of the Red and Blue. In a sense, as a "Golden Truth" of the reader. We can choose to accept certain parts of the narrative or white text that's believable, or deny that which is seemingly implausible to us individually as readers.

Just as the Golden Sorcerer proclaimed there's no way to truly identify Kinzo's corpse, there's also no way to independently verify the truth of what happened. No matter how many bottles Yasu/Beatrice wrote, the catbox would always remain closed.


In this sense, I have to agree with Lady Bernkastel. Because we can't independently verify the truth, we cannot accept any of it as truth. Or in other words, Clair had hoped that someone in the world would understand her. But if she's not believable, how can she be 'understood'? Or, even if someone understood her, they wouldn't know if they truly did and could only speculate. There really is no hope in any of the many worlds for Clair/Beatrice(Yasu)
FIXED! And I have to disagree. According to the Ikuko=Yasu theory, she can (almost, more or less) live happily ever after with Tohya.




Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Ryukishi himself proclaimed that the Gold could be used by the game's "pieces". Which would concur to the theory that the Golden Truth is an accepted truth of participants. However, the reason it can be inferior to red is quite simple: An Accepted Truth is inferior to the actual truth.

In other words, theories cannot replace actual fact. A theory that Man can defy gravity cannot replace the known fact that the Law of Pull exists. We're stuck on the ground whether we like it or not.

It might not have influenced the logic battle, but it gave us a clearer definition of the Golden Truth and its laws and how it works.

We're independent readers who exist both in and outside of the cat box at the same time. All of our theories may eventually one day pierce the heart of the truth. It might have been too early to use Gold for Krauss.

But even you can agree that I can use gold for Natushi. The Red statements from Battler, and facts from the previous games conclude overwhelmingly that Natsuhi didn't participate in Krauss's deception(if he did indeed deceive)
No, I've got a valid reason why Natsuhi must have lied at least once, but I will write that at the end of this post...




Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Not necessarily in the red text, and primarily by Yasu's theory. The closest we come is "Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead at the starting time of all games."

However, I now intend to make another argument to support my theory that Kinzo died on October 4th, 1986 before the Family Conference.

According to Ronove, my master Lambda-Sama set it at a 24:00 session. Kinzo could've only existed within this session(IE: Within the Games themselves). To declare Kinzo alive or dead outside of the two-day session would mean that Kinzo only existed outside the Cat Box.

Which is utterly illogical, wouldn't you say? One of the most important characters in the series, might as well not have been a character? And rather than pretending a dead man's alive for 2 years, it's much more logical to presume he died on the day of the Conference.
Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games! The starting time itself was never told in red. However it was said multiple times that the game spans 2 days: October 4th and October 5th. Since it was never said that one day is "longer" than another and no one has narrowed down the time of beginning more than by the date, which is October 4th, I can only reach the conclusion that the game lenght is the whole two days, or in other words: 48 hours from 4th of October at 0:00 until 5th of October at 24:00! At 4th of October at 0:00 Ushiromiya Kinzo was definitly dead and his moment of death must have been before that. But I like your argument that his "actual death date" is outside the catbox. So to respect that, all I say is this: It is impossible for Kinzo to be alive during the game and also impossible to actively influence the game in any way!

I actually don't even need Krauss "embezzlement" anymore, because you just admitted that he is deceitful and admitted defeat regarding him! You also didn't deny Kinzo's access to the gold and the 1 billion credit card yet, both that prove that Kinzo simply could not have been in a dire situation!

From now on I will skip things that I already covered!




Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
And I have proof of this hypothesis, the first game!(or was it the second?) Eva placed a note inside Kinzo's door, this was used to fabricate against Natsuhi. But what it proved was that Kinzo 'existed' at some point and then for some reason left the room. This scene, to me is an allegory. An allegory that Kinzo existed at the start of the game, then shortly afterwards died.(This incident happened at the First Twilight, and I believe before any murders were discovered. Though I could be mistaken)
Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games! I covered the "most likely starting point of the game" already too, which is the 4th of October at 0:00!



Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
This lie however, wasn't close to a solution for Krauss or Natsuhi. By this point, the siblings had grown impatient with Krauss and Natsuhi's dancing around, and some temporary lie only brought them a little bit of time.
Krauss always needed "just a bit more time". Even if that sounds like an excuse to us, as long as they believe that they can get out of the crisis with that, they will go through with it. All of them are desperate, he and his siblings. They even evidently seriously tried to solve the epitaph, but that just didn't work out in most games.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I also argue that if the first game isn't Rokkenjima Prime, none of the games can be Rokkenjima Prime. Because the first game is literally a time where the reader knew nothing of the Meta-World, or of Beatrice's existence.In other words, it's the closest thing to(and IMO it is) what happened during the actual two day crisis.
Woa, hold on there! I agree that none of the games are actually Rokkenjima prime, but to say that EP1 is prime is a very daring claim! For an individual episode to be "prime" you must meet following 2 conditions:

1. At the end of the game, Battler must have enough time to escape the "Reaper" and must still be alive at that point!
You already don't fulfill this condition as he is still in the mansion at 5th of October at 23:59!

2. At the end of the game, Eva must have enough time to escape the "Reaper" and must still be alive at that point!
But Eva is probably already dead!

So even if you would try to make an Eva culprit theory there at this point, you still cannot explain how Battler escapes!

This may not be relevant to our discussion, but I just had to correct that.







Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
And if they did an audit and compared their own financial records, it's just as plausible that they have themselves to blame for the Ushiromiya's downfall in my hypothesis.

At the very least, it can't be disputed that the other siblings are less than judge worthy characters themselves for wanting to grab inheritance money as their main means to solve their problems.
Embezzleing money is more than just "incompetence" or "inability to deal with money" though. Embezzlement is already going into criminal territory. Even more hiding Kinzo's death is. Natsuhi and Krauss gambled with a second crime to hide the first crime. And should any of his siblings find out about even just one of those "crimes".... then he should probably prey to whatever god(s) he believes in.



Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Here, I'll reference the first game. In the siblings conditions, of the 20 million they thought to believe to have had in assets, Krauss would recieve 12.5 million. Also, Eva allowed Krauss to conduct the audit. As long as the siblings themselves could confirm the amounts matched up.

It wouldn't take much(if Krauss was indeed embezzling)to have the amount match up artificially with a paux-audit. Allowing him to get away with the majority of cash shares.

Hence, at no time did Krauss ever really show panic about the situation. In fact, it was always Natushi who acted indignant to the questioning. His position as successor basically made him the chicken watching over the hen house. The only way for the siblings to truly get an independent audit would be to drag Krauss down from succession.
As long as no one has proof that he hid Kinzo's death or embezzled money, he had nothing to fear about.







Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I realized my reading error, ironically when I went to sleep over it. I thought about the words 'is', and 'at the' and I realized that those words strongly implicate a death before the start of the games.

However, that by itself doesn't mean my theory about the time of Kinzo's death is denied! I'll teach you starting now, that Kinzo is neither alive nor dead except at the start of the game! Behold, my Red Truth!

Dr. Nanjo projected that Ushiromiya Kinzo had 3 months to live. According to Yasu, he died in November of 1984. According to this theory, he should've died in August of 1984, not November!(August is 3 months before the October date)

Well, it depends on how one goes about counting. If one excludes August, it's possible for November to fit the 3 month time frame(IE: You don't count August as a 'month', because it's already the month of August).

So I'll admit that my red has a little bit of wiggle room, but not much.
You should reread what you just wrote. I could claim victory regarding Kinzo now, because you actually admitted either way that Kinzo died by 1984, be it August (in that case he was missing from that year's family conference as well), October or November. But the "game" begins about 2 years later in 1986! Do you see your mistake now? I allow you to revise it though. Of course if you simply changed your mind, then it is OK too.

Or I completely misunderstood you, so assuming that: August is the 8th month of the year and November is the 11th month of the year. The prediction was "3 months". So using basic math: 8+3=11! And also imagine, it would just be one month! Would you say the time that Passes would be August to August? Of course not! You would say from August to September! The same applies to the 3 month period which means from August to November!

*Cackle Cackle* Maybe you should go back to primary school! *ahaha_low_pitch.wav*



Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Magical scenes themselves of course, obviously aren't real. But we can use them as allegories. Both in the anime and the novel, we see that to begin the game, Kinzo throws his ruby ring into the storm. We can signify this as the last living moment for Kinzo. In real world terms, what if Kinzo handed the ring to Genji and shortly died thereafter?


Even if Rosa(or anyone one else besides Kinzo) inherited the ring after Kinzo's death. They themselves could not have sent the invitation to the Family Conference. The invitation was sent while Ushiromiya Kinzo was still alive.

The Conference itself is absolute proof that Kinzo was alive at least until 0:00:00 of October 4th, 1986.
The storm only comes when the all people already arrived, in other words after the 4th of October at 0:00, which means after the game started. And as we know, Ushiromiya Kinzo is dead at the starting point of all games! so the Kinzo we saw there was most certainly not "Ushiromiya Kinzo". That scene could not happen like that!

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Theoretically speaking, it could have been his servant(Genji) to write the invitational letters. But I've no doubt it was on Kinzo's behalf or suggestion.

Knox's 8th! It's forbidden for cases to be resolved without clues. Can it be shown that Krauss at any point knew(or at the very least suspected) Kinzo's death? If it can't be shown, then the theory that Krauss covered up Kinzo's death can't possibly be accepted.
Insolence! How dare you ask me something that I answered in the post before already? You even wrote that you accepted my red truth regarding that!



Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
The 8th game! Aurora proclaimed that "It's Battler's game, and it is his right to weave his own game." She also acknowledged Lady Bernkastel as another Master of the Game.

She also proclaimed(or at least showed) more interest in reading the book then actually creating it. That's why she asked Bernkastel to write the truth. If she wanted to do it, she could've easily done it herself. She just didn't want to.
I was actually referring to the tea party of the 7th game! Regarding the 8th game I agree, as Aurora herself clearly stated that.









Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
He had 2 years! And I doubt Eva's investigation was anywhere near complete by 1984(we can also doubt its veracity considering how spiteful Eva is of Krauss as well as the other siblings. In fact, she's the most antagonist of them all.
Nothing suggests that 2 years was actually enough time for him to get the money back, escpacially considering that he is deemed incompetent. That Eva is antagonistic toward her siblings is of course an established fact, as is the fact that Krauss and Natsuhi did expect the siblings to be more aware of Kinzo's absence in 1986's conference than they were in 1985's conference. But I don't know what Eva is supposed to have to do with our discussion.





Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I can concur to this. In the event of Kinzo's death in 1986. Don't you think it's unreasonable for a rich, elite, wealthy family to be unable to plan a basic funeral for 2 years? However, I can concur to this theory if in 1986, Natsuhi discovers Kinzo's dead corpse and within those 48 hours of being stuck between the typhoons, they may have had no choice but to burn the body, considering the siblings false suspicions. But I think burning the body makes no sense from Krauss's perspective. We know that the stench filled the entire mansion and basically alerts everyone to Kinzo's body. What was the point of that?

Turn the Chessboard Around.

If Krauss embezzled Kinzo, there's no way Krauss would want his corpse, or anything at all to do with him to be found by the siblings. And as you state, there's no way Natsuhi would've concurred to burning Kinzo's corpse
All of this can be explained if the person responsible for that was actually Yasu!




Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I listed my contentions above, my good friend. If you want to make it easier on yourself, you can concise my argument into categories, ignoring my specific statements or theories. As long as the same meaning is kept. Don't worry, the meaning of all of my words are the known meaning in which they are used in the English Language.

So indeed, I apologize for any repetiveness and if I give you the privilege to concise the argument to eliminate any such in my recent counterargument here.




Though I used the Red, my argument isn't consistent of the Magic Theory. Nor did I use the Magic Theory as a detective technique. By this, Knox's 2nd has no authority over my proposed theories. Red is simply more authoritative(as well as my favorite color). If you prefer me only to use Blue, then I'll use only blue from here on.



This has been a very pleasant debate, Chaos Sorcerer. I look forward to your response. And perhaps later I'll overlook Dormin's post but I believe I may have covered all theories against my statement that Kinzo at least died on October 4th, 1986.
I acknowledge that you use "red" only for cosmetic purposes. I however will try to keep my usage of red tied to the rules.




And now my first attack that is not of responsive nature, so beware:

If you claim that Natsuhi is always truthful, then tell me, how is Natsuhi's claim that Kinzo was in his study possible? We don't have enough details for EP1, but for EP5 we know exactly that it isn't possible!

The windows were never opened after it started raining!




From now on I will narrow down the discussion as much as possible...
__________________
Due to certain circumstances I am now the "Imouto Instructor"
GreyZone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-27, 18:31   Link #32564
Dormin
Member
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2012
Lately there has been some discussion about umineko manga

I'm especially curious how they have "fixed" the episode 8 to a form it was supposed to be before rushed release. In what sense have things changed? I'm having hard time believing the original content could be changed much.

I have been waiting for the official english translations and they are slow as hell. So far I've managed to get a hold of three volumes, going up to about halfway of ep 2. I must say that even if the manga is better than the anime (that shouldn't be any surprise at this point) it is still far below the vn. Maybe pacing is better, but I myself don't like the art, as it seems very generic and bland. Compared to, let's say Higanbana, the art lacks emotion so far.
Dormin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-27, 19:05   Link #32565
Renall
BUY MY BOOK!!!
 
 
Join Date: May 2009
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dormin View Post
I'm especially curious how they have "fixed" the episode 8 to a form it was supposed to be before rushed release. In what sense have things changed? I'm having hard time believing the original content could be changed much.
To provide a quick summary:
  • A lot of dialogue is expanded upon or clarified. The riddles segment is basically replaced with a more manga-friendly format that gives better depth into the "reward scenes" than were in the VN. This expands greatly on some of the characters (especially Rudolf and Rosa, from what I've seen).
  • Some confirmation of things that were either only implied in the VN (how anybody knew about Battler being Kyrie's son outside the island, how anyone knew the explosives existed, etc.), or that simply had no confirmation at all (how Beatrice creates magic symbols and such quickly).
  • Ange gets a lot more internal narration and seems somewhat more conflicted about things. Kyrie/Rudolf/Asumu is humanized a bit more and Rudolf's seemingly ridiculous actions are slightly better-justified. Battler is slightly (ever-so-slightly) less of a dickhead.
Of course there's still lots of time for it to go off the rails, but I've been impressed with its handling of what I considered a very kludgy and weak section of a weak episode so far.
__________________
Redaction of the Golden Witch
I submit that a murder was committed in 1996.
This murder was a "copycat" crime inspired by our tales of 1986.
This story is a redacted confession.

Blog (VN DL) - YouTube Playlists
Battler Solves The Logic Error
Renall is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-27, 20:01   Link #32566
Cao Ni Ma
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
I'd love to know if supergoat's theories are the same as in the visual novel. Just looking at some of the pics make me think some of them are different.
Cao Ni Ma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 04:28   Link #32567
GoldenLand
Eaten by goats
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Turn the Chessboard Over, we state that Krauss's reason for covering up Kinzo's death is because he embezzled money. Is Natsuhi keeping up her delusion for Krauss? The Golden Sorcerer Battler clearly stated at the end of the 5th game: That Natsuhi was pure and faithful
No, you need to look at that red in context. Battler specifically said that in response to accusations that Natsuhi was having an affair with Kinzo. He's saying that she was faithful to Krauss.

The full red is
Quote:
"Because of this, Grandfather's absence has been verified, and the dishonorable relationship between Natsuhi oba-san and Grandfather has been removed from consideration!!"

"Natsuhi oba-san is pure and faithful! I won't permit this vulgar tale you're all so fond of!!"
See, this is why context is important for reds. What Battler was really talking about is very clear. It's not relevant to Natsuhi's conduct other than to her faithfulness to her husband.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
However, I don't believe Krauss embezzled money. Because the Ushiromiya wealth as a whole was drying out.

All of the Adult siblings were losing money hand and foot, Kasumi pretty much admitted this in her pursuit of Ange during the 4th game.
The other adult siblings were losing their own, personal fortunes, not Kinzo's fortune. Krauss was the only one of the siblings with access to Kinzo's money. The fact the other siblings without that access were individually having money trouble doesn't mean anything in regard to Kinzo's fortune.
GoldenLand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 04:48   Link #32568
ALPHA-Beatrice
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone
From now on I will clearly state, which part of the discussion has become "offtopic", because we either agree on it more or less, or it has nothing to do with the main points (Kinzo's death time and "Beatrice") that we disagree with. Beware the power of copy & paste!
Interesting, truly interesting! **I clapped my hands and created a Tea Party**

I think a splendid intellectual argument like this deserves some tea, no? **I poured in a cup for both of us and began to sip mine**



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.




I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.


I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.
Very well, we shall drop this part of the discussion.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Very well. Struggle as you wish!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
"sacrificing herself to protect her family (preventing Krauss's siblings from law suiting him) and the family's honor (prevent Krauss's inability of using money to become public knowledge)" would, as far as I see it, fit that red truth. Usually people would say that her actions are "noble". So I don't see a problem with that.
An interesting attack, in fact a large segment of your argument against my theory that Kinzo Died on October 4, 1986 at 0:0:00 depends on the theory that Natushi knew the truth about Krauss.

However, Knox's 8th! A case cannot be resolved without presentation of evidence. Was there ever any actual evidence that Natsuhi knew the TRUTH about Krauss? If there wasn't any evidence, this theory cannot be permitted.


In fact, the opposite: If this theory was known, then the 'red truth' that Natsuhi was "pure and faithful" could not possibly be a red truth. And/or, you could make the argument that it only referred to Natsuhi's sexual affairs. But it appears that Battler stated that in it's general, true meaning of not GUILTY




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
It was clearly shown that Natsuhi loves her family and would do anything to protect them (Krauss and Jessica). In this case, the only way to save them is to lie, as "appeasing the siblings somehow" is impossible, as all of them are after money to save their own asses as well, which does not exist anymore because of Krauss's incompetence.
I can disprove this theory by presenting another solution to Krauss's problem! The siblings can pool together and use what resources they had. Instead of antagonizing each other all the time, Krauss himself admitted this in the 3rd game in his confession of his feelings to Natsuhi before being magically killed by Eva-Beatrice

I also feel as though we have to put reasonable LIMITATIONS on Krauss's incompetence. I mean, it's not like the island home has been foreclosed, the servants are still(assumingly) being paid pretty well and he's still clothed fairly well. It may very well be true that Krauss lost a lot of money. But all of his financial assets? Not likely.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Oh, look! Natsuhi is drinking tea together with the family alchemist Beatrice! Nope... "Right now Natsuhi is drinking tea alone in the garden". And even if you say "that scene was a complete narrative lie", if she had to lie in order to protect what was dear to her, she would do it. She was doing it all for her faithfulness and convinction. I would consider that "pure" as well.
I won't say you lied. To say you lie, would also weaken my argument using the narrative to strengthen my Kinzo's time of death theory However:

Knox's 9th! It's permitted to all observers(other than the detective) to have a non-subjective VIEWPOINT!

Natsuhi can earnestly believe she was having a conversation with Beatrice and still not be classified as 'insane'.

In fact, it's entirely possible that Natsuhi's "conversation" in all realism was her gathering her thoughts with the 'character' Beatrice as an antagonist to those thoughts! This is my most beautiful blue truth yet

*Bern's Ahaha wav, just because she's a bad ass like that*


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Let me propose the following theory: Krauss did indeed want to get rid of the corpse. As he was convinced that he was the new family head, he ordered Genji to do it, while being sure that he would follow his order. However the true family head, Yasu (also known as Beatrice), ordered him to preserve and hide Kinzo's corpse instead, to be able to use it for blackmailing Krauss and Natsuhi at a later point, or possibly as revenge against Natsuhi for throwing her down the cliff. This theory is only possible with BOTH Shkanontrice being the truth and Kinzo being dead, so it is impossible for you adapt it for own use.
Knox's 1st! It's forbidden for the culprit to be someone not shown in the story. Even if "BEATRICE" as the witch was shown to us, the characterization of Yasu didn't exist until the 7th game. In fact, much like Lion and Will she's a fictional character! Yet, she has her importance. Namely, giving us more information about what took place on Rokkenjima. But she's fictional

Furthermore, if we believe Yasu=Shannon/Kannon=Beatrice. At what point did either Shannon or Kanon rise up to be the head of the family?Shannon's relationship with George hasn't even come close to developing by this point, partly because she's still fixated on Ushiromiya Battler! (For that matter, even assuming she could use a family member, like say George's influence. That influence doesn't come remarkably close to have Krauss change his ideas

It's more reasonable for the mistress of the night to be someone in high enough status in the family to be called the second head. This could be the Kuwadorian Beatrice(but I already dismissed the intelligence of her character entirely) OR it could be Rosa, though the youngest of the siblings her connection with the Kuwadorian Beatrice puts her at a higher plane in Genji's eyes.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Beatrice
That doesn't change the fact that his siblings would want to have part of the inheritance. So when they would come to the mansion and say "give us our share", what was he supposed to do?
My apologies, I already spoiled a portion of my argument above. **sips more tea** But I purpose something else to you: The siblings agreed to a lump-sum payment upfront. It's possible for Krauss to negotiate a reasonable monthly or even yearly payment plan. This would give Krauss some time to get things in order and to entirely divert suspicion from his embezzlement or Kinzo's death.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Has there been any indication that the siblings, aside from Krauss himself, had access to Kinzo's bank account? If not, then "Kinzo's wealth" would remain untouched and it is known, that Kinzo has always been successful with money (in emergencies he also had access to the gold). So it is out of the question that Kinzo would go bankrupt by himself
Can you claim Knox's 8th in terms of the narrative? You yourself said that the narrative should be permitted. If you declare Knox's 8th in terms of the narrative, I can also claim it to refute the notion of Natsuhi truly ever knowing of Kinzo's death, or Krauss for that matter.

Indeed, if we refute the narrative, we can go back to my argument that Kinzo died on October 4th, 1986 at 0:0:00. Or died in the First Twilight, with Rosa as the murderer(through subtle poisoning) and Genji/Nanjo as accomplices

And let me note before hand that in my example I used sugar, or anything natural that could have tipped his heart.(Though Nanjo advised Kinzo to stop drinking, he never did use his authority as his physician to truly stop him. A family member could claim neglect of responsibilities). In other words, I'm not using supposition, as in Knox's 4th or any other supernatural agency as in Knox's 2nd. It's a true natural death, which covers up a homicide.




Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
You just hurt yourself with that! This just makes my point stronger, that the only person who is known to be truly successful in terms of money in the Ushiromiya family, has died in 1984!
While it was never shown the other siblings personally accessed Kinzo's bank accounts or any of his wealth, it was shown that Kinzo openly gave them upstart capital to their businesses. And they mostly all flopped. Rosa's little dress store was on the verge of collapse, both due to a staggering market interest and her own neglect while she chased every possible boyfriend who possibly dumped her due to her Yandere-tendencies to latch onto them with her own irrational thoughts about Lady MARIA.

Rudolf's business was being sued by the American Government(AKA IRL like a Megaspace or something). Hideyoshi's came from naivety in allowing his company to go into the market without the slightest hint of protecting his company.


And so on it goes, of course naturally the wives such as Kyrie at best were probably upper class workers and not necessarily company leaders themselves. In fact, while the Kyrie Theory is dismissable Kyrie's actual feelings aren't.

It's entirely possible that she felt neglected, that she felt that pride and envy and lust in her heart.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Krauss said, that he has contacts to the black market, that could convert the gold into money over time!
But wait... why am I arguing against that?
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.
Acknowledged, but the fact remains solid that Unless otherwise shown, Krauss never had knowledge of Kuwadorian. If he did have knowledge of it, he could've very easily paid off his siblings, hid the embezzlement and the whole Umineko story is basically wiped out by that point


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Also I don't see the relevance of that.
True, that's why I never tried to solve it with that theory. It's a plausible theory with the Truth of Humans.

Doesn't necessarily mean it happened. I can refer to Battler's numerous false truths in the 1st-4th games.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique!
No supernatural agencies were used. It was reading into the magical interpretation and bringing into the real world with real world probabilities. Is this not what Battler and Erika attempt to do as the Detectives of the Umineko story?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
All of that is pure speculation and doesn't have the power of red truth at all! The "miracle" could also be just referring to the so-called "resurrection of Beatrice".
Duly noted, but you can't deny it can also be referred in reality to initial successes, followed by a dull in said successes later.

I can make that argument by stating that Ushriomiya Kinzo was not the Ushriomiya's first choice to be successor! Only after the Great Kanto Earthquake did he become the successor(IE: One of the few survivors left)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Dlanor said that pieces can not be out of character!
And there's nothing out of character for Kinzo to favor one of the cousins(IE: Ange in the 8th game), more than the adult siblings.


This is proven in the 4th game. In fact, since we're here I'll reveal what I think about Rokkenjima Prime.

Rokkenjima Prime, as we acknowledge might possibly not be one of the games. However, that leaves it to be: Pieces of all the games, here and there. The 4th game for example, I argue that the actual events happened the other way around.

Before teenage Ange fell off the tower and committed suicide, she went to Rokkenjima to find out the truth. We can omit the obvious tribute to Hollywood and the whole chase scene as utterly unrealistic. OR, what occurred was that after finding out the truth, Kasumi's group was following near by and rather than the equally dubious summoning of the seven stakes of purgatory, what really happened was that Ange committed her suicide on Rokkenjima to symbolically be with her Onii-Chan and everyone else

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Therefore neither the description in the initial Episodes, nor the description in Episode 8 can be considered "out of character". Since both are "in character", the description of neither is absolute and must be somewhere between strict and kind. Therefore him "hating" his children is not an established fact!
Let it be spoken: It hasn't been subjectively been proven that Ushiromiya Kinzo felt anything for the Adult Siblings. In fact, he goes out of his way to ridicule even Maria.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
So you finally admit defeat at least regarding Krauss? A wise decision! Now just Natsuhi, Kinzo and Rosa are left! You sacrificed Krauss to strenghten Natsuhi's defense, but don't worry, I will crush that as well!
I admitted that Krauss was deceptive at times, yes to strengthen Natsuhi's defense but I also didn't resign over Krauss not knowing of Kinzo's death.

I suppose I want to have my cake and eat it too, fitting for Lambda's student no ^.^?








Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
But his buisness connections are what almost led him to being bankrupt to begin with! He said himself, that he used the ideas that his buisness partners gave him, but none of those worked out! Just like the idea to "turn Rokkenjima into a holiday resort" didn't work out!
I'll concede to this. If the ideas from his partners failed and he lost money hand on foot, there exists the plausibility for Krauss to embezzle Kinzo.


However, the siblings also admitted that the reason his ideas flopped was the timing, and Krauss's optimism. It's entirely possible that Krauss is anticipating a rebound, and any money he lost(or embezzled) would eventually be returned to him.







Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Krauss embezzlement already happened before Kinzo's death in 1984! He was sure he could get all his money back by "borrowing" some money from from his father, but due to his own incompetence, he only had losses as well. After Kinzo's death in 1984, Natsuhi, who was hiding behind her husband all the time, started to involve herself into that matter as well and Krauss started to be more careful with his money, but he was not able to gain back what was lost until the conference in 1986.
In the first game, we saw that Krauss openly objected to Natsuhi's involvement. The excuse given was that she'd worsen her headache, but he made it very clear that he believed in Kinzo's male supremacism during that confrontation with the Gold. There's no way he would've allowed Natsuhi into his personal life or financial situations.

On the flipside, that interpretation allows you to claim that because Natsuhi wasn't involved with his financial life, it was possible to deceive Natsuhi into believing that the financial side of things was taken care of.

But I'll cut up that objection before you try: It's clear Natsuhi was vaguely aware of Krauss's money problems, maybe not so much the embezzlement but she knew things weren't rosy. She'd be the first to suspect embezzlement.

At least as it pertains to Kinzo and the Ushiromiya's honor, Natsuhi is pure and faithful.


Even if it's her husband, if she found out Krauss embezzled "Father"(Kinzo), she'd go on an outrage. She'd inform the other Ushiromiya family members. In a way, this would allow her to gain more leverage and approval from the other Ushiromiya's, indeed to even be acknowledged as a true Ushiromiya.

Natsuhi's pure and fateful, but she's no martyr. If she knows the gig's up, the very first thing she'll do is better position herself to succeed in a post-Krauss world and secure Jessica's future.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Again, your assumption, that Kinzo lost all of his money by himself like his children, is very unlikely, escpacially considering that he was still in possession of the gold. In fact I still didn't see any clue regarding Kinzo going bunkrupt, aside from "that miracle" which you can interpret in many different ways aside from yours. And what about the 1 billion credit card? Will you dismiss it as a "narrative lie" as well?
No, I won't dismiss the card as a lie. It factually and truly happened.(It was Rosa's way of bribing Nanjo and may very well have been, as speculated Rosa's way of thanking Kuwasawa for helping to raise her during the aftermath of Kuwadorian Beatrice.)
]


This following theory can't be proven by the games, but it's plausible that Rosa, like Krauss also had access to the black market. After accessing the Gold, she had a portion of it converted into monetary funds to be delivered to the siblings of Nanjo/Kuwasawa.

Also, you misunderstand my argument. It's not that Kinzo himself went "broke"(in the traditional sense that there's no money, we know the gold existed.).

There was a family fund of money, open access. The family members accessed this fund and all of them squandered it. This means the only monetary wealth left is the gold. But Krauss is never aware of it, neither are the other family members. The only Sibling aware of the gold is Rosa.

Presentation of Evidence: Rosa is the least bit engaged among the siblings in the adult conversation. After all, why would she be? She's the freaking billionaire criminal mastermind in the series.

It's partially due to this squandering of family funds that has Kinzo upset. But the reason he's also upset that they want his money after he's dead is that he knows they'll squander it too!

To Ushiromiya Kinzo, there's no true successor not even Battler(who doesn't return to the island until 1986 and if you believe Kinzo died in 1984, the two couldn't have possibly met) and even in my theory that Kinzo died at least during 0:00:00 of October 4th, 1986 or during the First Twilight(in which he's never confirmed to have ever come out of his room) he couldn't have possibly met Battler or in any way logically changed his mind about Battler.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Again, Kinzo is still in possession of the gold and there is still the "1 billion credit card".
None of which accessible by the Ushiromiya household.(The Caveat being: Unless they solve the epitath)

The only one truly shown to solve the epitath is Ushiromiya Eva.But if we assume that Yasu=Rosa then we also know that Rosa solved the epitath and knows where the gold is.

But neither Krauss nor Natsuhi knows. In fact, as far as Krauss knows he's fucked unless he finds the gold

So it's absolutely confirmed that the only ones who had access to anything beyond any public funds made by Kinzo is Eva, Rosa, Nanjo and Kuwasawa's descendants via the credit card!


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
FIXED! And I have to disagree. According to the Ikuko=Yasu theory, she can (almost, more or less) live happily ever after with Tohya.
Except, I just dealt Yasu=Shakanontrice a hard ass blow. There's no way either of them as individuals or as a unified person could have ever had access to the Gold, to the card or to any of it.






Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
No, I've got a valid reason why Natsuhi must have lied at least once, but I will write that at the end of this post...
Duly noted and will be addressed there.






Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games! The starting time itself was never told in red. However it was said multiple times that the game spans 2 days: October 4th and October 5th. Since it was never said that one day is "longer" than another and no one has narrowed down the time of beginning more than by the date, which is October 4th, I can only reach the conclusion that the game lenght is the whole two days, or in other words: 48 hours from 4th of October at 0:00 until 5th of October at 24:00! At 4th of October at 0:00 Ushiromiya Kinzo was definitly dead and his moment of death must have been before that. But I like your argument that his "actual death date" is outside the catbox. So to respect that, all I say is this: It is impossible for Kinzo to be alive during the game and also impossible to actively influence the game in any way!
I concur. There's absolutely no way for Ushiromiya Kinzo to actively manipulate the game board.

Even if we accept that Kinzo died before October 4, 1986 at 0:00:00 I believe the 1984 date is utterly implausible. I cannot, I will not wrap my head around the "logic" of an invisible character named Yasu telling Genji to preserve the corpse for 2 years, just to play out the Epitath. I'll go so far as to say he died on October 3rd, 1986 at 23:59:59. I will NOT use that 1984 date. Without Love, the truth can't be seen. Natsuhi wanted to bury Kinzo's body with the respect and dignity the Head deserves. However, the reports of the Typhoons and the sudden passing of Kinzo's death made it unrealistic to do so.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
I actually don't even need Krauss "embezzlement" anymore, because you just admitted that he is deceitful and admitted defeat regarding him! You also didn't deny Kinzo's access to the gold and the 1 billion credit card yet, both that prove that Kinzo simply could not have been in a dire situation!
Ushiromiya Kinzo wasn't in a dire situation, the family was. Or even if Kinzo's weath was drained personally, Kinzo didn't care. He was going to die anyway.(And according to his "promise" with Beatrice, all of his wealth would go with it.)

Irregardless of precisely when Ushiromiya Kinzo died, we can concur that his last, dying wish was to find a successor(as well as see his delusional Beatrice.) It pained him to dawn that not only wouldn't he see Beatrice, but that there's not a single sibling qualified to be the successor

If no one solved the epitath, Kinzo would've selected no one. Or he would've selected George in his will, which is why he was assassinated by Rosa and Genji.









Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games! I covered the "most likely starting point of the game" already too, which is the 4th of October at 0:00!
Now I'll use the power of Witches. Hempel's Raven.


In a world before 1986, Ushiromiya Kinzo died.

That world is not a part of the Umineko story and cannot be verified or proven beyond the paux-character Yasu

The statement that Ushiromiya Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games, literally means he died at October 4th, 1986 at 0:00:00. Or even October 3rd, 1986 23:59:59.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Grayzone
Krauss always needed "just a bit more time". Even if that sounds like an excuse to us, as long as they believe that they can get out of the crisis with that, they will go through with it. All of them are desperate, he and his siblings. They even evidently seriously tried to solve the epitaph, but that just didn't work out in most games.
That's true, but is that really all that Krauss could think of? He's obviously inept with money but how inept? He has some skill clearly, so I'd think rather than "buying himself time" with every little petty excuse, he thought his way through some of this.





Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Woa, hold on there! I agree that none of the games are actually Rokkenjima prime, but to say that EP1 is prime is a very daring claim! For an individual episode to be "prime" you must meet following 2 conditions:

1. At the end of the game, Battler must have enough time to escape the "Reaper" and must still be alive at that point!
You already don't fulfill this condition as he is still in the mansion at 5th of October at 23:59!

2. At the end of the game, Eva must have enough time to escape the "Reaper" and must still be alive at that point!
But Eva is probably already dead!

So even if you would try to make an Eva culprit theory there at this point, you still cannot explain how Battler escapes!

This may not be relevant to our discussion, but I just had to correct that.
In my opinion, the main reason episode 1(or a collection of episodes, with episode 1's ending) is prime is Lady Bernkastel's statement:

This game shall not have an happy ending

*Ahahaha.wav**

In other words Eva never escaped. The only thing that existed was Maria's diary and the bottles.

But why is Maria's diary and the bottles even necessary? Because no one escaped. No one COULD escape!

Any account of escaping, the account of Eva's "existence" in 1996 is pure and utterly fiction. Just the same as Eva wanting to mistreat ANGE is also nonsense.

After all, it's widely accepted that EVA-Beatrice's existence is mainly to defend the cousins. It's the same reason that if you believe in the fictionalized account, that Eva never tells Ange the truth about what happened in Rokkenjima

**Slashes the fiction with a sarcastic blue sword, Lambda-style and smirks** That fictionalized account is an allegory for the true sadness Eva feels about losing both her husband and her son(to his own madness in helping Rosa). In short, at that time before the bomb went off, Eva had no sympathies or even the slightest desire to remain alive! Ushiromiya Eva committed suicide on the night of 1986!

Or, even if Ushiromiya Eva did want to remain alive it's a freaking bomb. Lady Beatrice said in Red:

Right now, you're the only person on the island and yet you will be killed.

Not "maybe", "will"! There's no way without any boats or lifesavers that any of them could've survived in any way, shape or form.

Die the Death!
Sentence to Death!
The Great Equalizer for the Ushiromiya Family is death!

Umineko's 8th magic ending was a compromise to the inane desires of ANGE, as well as foolish readers(Lady Bern's words) to have some comfort in the idea of a "happy" ending.

Another final nail in the coffin is precisely why the bomb was even on the island in the first place. Who was the original Game Master? Lady Beatrice. And what is Lady Beatrice's specialty? Sealed rooms.

The Rokkenjima massacres is one big closed room murder that cannot be opened up. It can only be peered through with the lenses known as the diary and bottles.


Hell, it's even discovered the bottles and Maria's diary have the same writing. And if Rosa's Beatrice, then even ANGE's diary is little more than Rosa's confession to premeditated murder.






Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Embezzleing money is more than just "incompetence" or "inability to deal with money" though. Embezzlement is already going into criminal territory. Even more hiding Kinzo's death is. Natsuhi and Krauss gambled with a second crime to hide the first crime. And should any of his siblings find out about even just one of those "crimes".... then he should probably prey to whatever god(s) he believes in.
If Krauss truly did hide/or preserve Kinzo's corpse, how did he do it? If you try to claim that Genji acted on Krauss's behalf, you already played that card for Yasu(Rosa), who you made superior to Krauss. If he hid Kinzo's death, how'd he hide it from Natsuhi who was personally observing Kinzo's room?

Neither Krauss nor Natsuhi knew of Kinzo's death in the case of Rosatrice, or in the case of them knowing I claim that Kinzo died at October 4th, 1986 at 0:00:00 or October 3rd, 1986 at 23:59:59. We can actually use that October 3rd date to completely explain Krauss's actions within that day, as well as fulfill the notion of no participation in the game.

I'll claim with the truth of Humans that my theory of the public funds drying out, and the theory of Krauss's embezzlement are on the same standing. The reason being is that there's no red truth to indict Krauss on embezzlement.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
As long as no one has proof that he hid Kinzo's death or embezzled money, he had nothing to fear about.
I concur









Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
You should reread what you just wrote. I could claim victory regarding Kinzo now, because you actually admitted either way that Kinzo died by 1984, be it August (in that case he was missing from that year's family conference as well), October or November. But the "game" begins about 2 years later in 1986! Do you see your mistake now? I allow you to revise it though. Of course if you simply changed your mind, then it is OK too.

Or I completely misunderstood you, so assuming that: August is the 8th month of the year and November is the 11th month of the year. The prediction was "3 months". So using basic math: 8+3=11! And also imagine, it would just be one month! Would you say the time that Passes would be August to August? Of course not! You would say from August to September! The same applies to the 3 month period which means from August to November!
**Sips tea and plays Kuruki**

Indeed, that attack hadn't come out quite as I planned Chaos Sorcerer, so allow me to revise it in simplicity.

Yasu proclaimed that Kinzo died on November 4th, 1984. However, Dr. Nanjo predicted a 3 month time frame. I'm saying that November couldn't have possibly fit in that 3 month window(not without counting August as a month anyway).

In other words, the progression would have to be like this.

August> September >October> November
(zero)> (One)> (Two)> (Three)


But if we count August physically as a month, it's obviously four months.

If all of that's confusing(and it is, even to me). Let me just simplify it by saying we start counting from September if Yasu's theory holds true.

**huff puff**

I myself wish I didn't go there, what a long and tedious rebuttal point. But the point is to fictionalize Yasu's account in any form.

This is trickery on my part to claim that Kinzo died in October, and could only have died in October. Or at any segment in which the prediction was made 3 months before Kinzo's death.

In of itself, this doesn't mean I agree with the 1984 date. It just means I contest against Yasu's claim that he died in "November". That to me is the weak point I attacked. He didn't die in 1984 in any other worlds outside of Umineko and I sure as hell contest he didn't die in 1984 in the Umineko world. I will NEVER accept the notion that Krauss and/or Yasu hid his body for 2 years for the hell of it!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
*Cackle Cackle* Maybe you should go back to primary school! *ahaha_low_pitch.wav*
Chaos Sorcerer, in this wonderful Witches debate between us, I never once insulted you. If, however you want us to go into that realm of debate, I can gladly do so




Quote:
Originally Posted by Grayzone
The storm only comes when the all people already arrived, in other words after the 4th of October at 0:00, which means after the game started. And as we know, Ushiromiya Kinzo is dead at the starting point of all games! so the Kinzo we saw there was most certainly not "Ushiromiya Kinzo". That scene could not happen like that!
**I used a blue shield and a red sword to deflect these truths**

It's certainly a scene within the Magical Realm and I'm not alleging that it happened in real life!

But what I am doing, is using it as an allegory for what could've possibly happened in the "real world" of the Umineko Series!

In accordance with the new theory I created in this post, I have two new Human theories about what took place just before Kinzo's death!

If Ushiromiya Kinzo died on October 3rd, 23:59:59 then it was of a natural heart failure of no complications! At the time, he called Genji to his guide and gave him the ring with final instructions!

Though there's no direct proof of this, it's a Devil's Proof And I can prove the validity of it being a Devil's Proof through the fact that Kinzo called Genji his "old friend"

For my Rosatrice theory, I have to make a slight adjustment because the times are important(and we've both concurred that Kinzo doesn't exist in the First Twilight). In this case, I won't use Shannon but Nanjo!

Nanjo gave Kinzo medication during the night of October 3rd, 1986. The medication in of itself is relatively harmless. However, combined with alcohol could possibly produce poisoning or a heart attack.

Because the medication was harmless, Dr. Nanjo didn't directly kill Kinzo and bypasses the red truth that "Nanjo is not a killer", Kinzo could've easily have drank water or anything reasonable with a prescription drug but chose not to. Kinzo himself declared that he didn't care for his life at his dying moments.

Knox's 4th cannot apply here because the type of drug referenced to is a legal drug from a doctor for medical conditions. And due to the Devil's Proof I have no reason or obligation to speculate exactly what kind of disease or disorder Kinzo was afflicted with at the end of his life. All I have to do is speculate(a rather modest speculation IMO) that a doctor would give a prescribed medication.

The door was sealed until one of Rosa or Genji discovered the body(Let's go with Rosa, because "none of the servants are culprits" and calling Genji an accomplice is a mere cheap cop out). Rosa discovered the body, took the ring off and from thereon became the next head.

As for the letter she gave Maria, she easily could've asked Kinzo for an envelope during a time he was alive. It might've been for example a back and forth between herself and Kuwasawa. Other than Maria, Rosa's known to be on relatively friendly terms with the rest of the cousins(and logically this includes Jessica, whose at the island)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Insolence! How dare you ask me something that I answered in the post before already? You even wrote that you accepted my red truth regarding that!
**Sips more tea**. My apologies Chaos Sorcerer, but I don't recall your red truth. Nor do I recall accepting it. That's not sarcasm, I'm reading the previous posts and I cannot read it. If you'd copy and paste it, that would be excellent.

But I contend that at the very least, by proclaiming Yasu to be the new head of the house, Krauss in no way whatsoever was able to retrieve information about Kinzo's death, his whereabouts or anything at all. Genji himself serves "Beatrice" far above any of the other servants





Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
I was actually referring to the tea party of the 7th game! Regarding the 8th game I agree, as Aurora herself clearly stated that.
I'm referring to the 7th game too. I watched an epic video on Battler solving the Logic Error. He did so using a loop hole of Beatrice's closed room definition made in the first game.

Just as the closed room definition was universal, I declare that Aurora's statement was universal for games 5-8. Aurora, in no way whatsoever had any interest at any point writing the Umineko story. In effect, she was among the observers from the Senate.











Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Nothing suggests that 2 years was actually enough time for him to get the money back, especially considering that he is deemed incompetent. That Eva is antagonistic toward her siblings is of course an established fact, as is the fact that Krauss and Natsuhi did expect the siblings to be more aware of Kinzo's absence in 1986's conference than they were in 1985's conference. But I don't know what Eva is supposed to have to do with our discussion.
Just as I attacked Yasu's proclamation of death to open a window to further truly define Kinzo's death, I'm attacking Eva's credibility to establish an alibi for Krauss.


And I have to add that while she's antagonistic towards all of the siblings, she is more antagonistic towards Krauss, far more in fact than the others. She wouldn't pass at any chance to dethrone Krauss, even if it means lying herself!



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
All of this can be explained if the person responsible for that was actually Yasu!
Knox's 1st! It's illegal for the culprit to be anyone not mentioned in the early parts of the story. We can excuse the fake death drug for game 5, but Yasu is introduced in game freaking 7! Yasu is either a fictional character altogether, or among Rosa's aliases.(or whoever 'Culprit Theory' you'd like to use).


You personally seem to be a believer in Shakanontrice. Even though None of the servants are culprits and none of them killers

But ignoring that hole Ryukishi put in his own theory, it begs the question: How could Kanon dress as Shannon? Apart from Shannon's curvy body, I sware she has a 30 D. Mere pillows can't do that(and they'd slouch down which would be very suspicious considering Shannon's young age. She's not a old woman.

If however you believe it to be Rosa, that blue statement is actually quite true. It's Rosa who burns the body, likely to make an autopsy difficult for whatever reason.(Since we've denied that Kinzo existed beyond October 4th 00:00:01. I can no longer claim Rosa planned his death via poisoning.)

Maybe it was to hide the pill that Kinzo took or the alcohol in his system, I guess if they couldn't distinguish how Kinzo died it would save Nanjo from medical malpractice charges.







Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
I acknowledge that you use "red" only for cosmetic purposes. I however will try to keep my usage of red tied to the rules.
I do wish to elaborate in blue that in no way, shape or form am I being deceptive. I use the argument of the "Witches" or in other words, an argument that while plausible, doesn't actually exist on the game board.

You can deny my red truths, and thereby of course they aren't "truths" in the actual sense, but neither are they lies. I'm not using the Purple Declaration after all, and I'm not a culprit . I just happen to be someone who got hooked to Umineko and well, Rping it like this is fun..




And now my first attack that is not of responsive nature, so beware:

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone
If you claim that Natsuhi is always truthful, then tell me, how is Natsuhi's claim that Kinzo was in his study possible? We don't have enough details for EP1, but for EP5 we know exactly that it isn't possible!

The windows were never opened after it started raining!
**smirk**. Here,I'll use the knowledge I learned from that Logic Error video .Never, at any point was it defined precisely when Natsuhi entered the room and when Kinzo left via the window.

The Windows could've been opened at any time before it rained on that day.

Or the day after

Or after that

Or on any day at all that doesn't meet October 3rd, 1986 October 4, 1986 or November of 1984!

None of that, whatsoever conflicts with any of Dlanor's red truths. Hell, it no longer becomes a sealed room whatsoever and he can leave by the door!

**Wahaha.wav**

Last edited by ALPHA-Beatrice; 2013-07-28 at 05:28.
ALPHA-Beatrice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 05:18   Link #32569
GoldenLand
Eaten by goats
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Rokkenjima
ALPHA-Beatrice, I'm sorry, but although a lot of effort has clearly gone into your posts, they are on the long side and filled with distracting random reds, which means it's too difficult to follow your arguments and work out what the theory or theories you are proposing are. Would you consider writing a short summary of what your theory is? Maybe of around the length of a paragraph, if possible?
GoldenLand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 07:17   Link #32570
ALPHA-Beatrice
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenLand View Post
ALPHA-Beatrice, I'm sorry, but although a lot of effort has clearly gone into your posts, they are on the long side and filled with distracting random reds, which means it's too difficult to follow your arguments and work out what the theory or theories you are proposing are. Would you consider writing a short summary of what your theory is? Maybe of around the length of a paragraph, if possible?
My deepest apologies, I shall do so now.(Part of the reason it was so long, was that I was defending original theories that I must admit the Chaotic Sorcerer put a few holes in).

Yasu's statement:
Ushiromiya Kinzo died on November, 1984.


My theories:
Ushiromiya Kinzo died at least on October 4th, 1986 at 00:00:01(IE:At the start of the game) or October 3rd, 1986 at 23:59:59.(Legally outside of the catbox)Or my weakest argument: Kinzo died during the First Twilight, before any other murders occurred.


Erika's theory(and the accepted one by many):
That Krauss and Natushi covered up Kinzo's death for the purpose of embezzlement and family honor


My theory:
Krauss couldn't have possibly of known of Kinzo's body and thereby wasn't covering it up. It might be that he knew, but that it was implausible during either October 3rd or October 4th to give him a proper burial. In regards to embezzlement, I argued that Kinzo had a public trust fund open to the family in general, and that other than the gold this was the Ushiromiya wealth. That pond essentially ran out and the siblings want to extort even more money(which doesn't exist outside of the gold) from Kinzo(Krauss).
ALPHA-Beatrice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 07:34   Link #32571
GreyZone
"Senior" "Member"
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
I don't have time for everything right now, so I only bother to discuss the most important part for now:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
**smirk**. Here,I'll use the knowledge I learned from that Logic Error video .Never, at any point was it defined precisely when Natsuhi entered the room and when Kinzo left via the window.

The Windows could've been opened at any time before it rained on that day.

Or the day after

Or after that

Or on any day at all that doesn't meet October 3rd, 1986 October 4, 1986 or November of 1984!

None of that, whatsoever conflicts with any of Dlanor's red truths. Hell, it no longer becomes a sealed room whatsoever and he can leave by the door!

**Wahaha.wav**
That won't work! You cannot defend Natsuhi anymore, just give her up!

The window was never opened after it started raining. A window, per Beatrice's definition, must completely isolate the room from the outside, which means that the moment the window was destroyed by Rudolph, the window stopped existing! Therefore it couldn't ever be opened afterwards. Until here it was just more or less cosmetic, but now for the real thing:

It started raining before Erika even reached the island. Therefore the moment Natsuhi entered, it was definitely raining, regardless of the exact time, as it was still raining non-stop until the investigation itself! Also Battler himself claimed that Natsuhi would without fail realize that the window is opened, when she enters the bedroom, which is natural, as she always checks how well done the cleaning of the servants is, while being a perfectionist about her own cleaning and she would immidietly spot water drops that got into into the room through the window!

Just give it up. I can only say that regarding Natsuhi, this is Checkmate!



Hmm I DO have enough time to answer another thing after all:

You claim that Shannon and Kanon are different people? OK, fine... it is NOT!
Even if Erika joins the people of Rokkenjima, there are 17 people! How is that possible?


And regarding the red truth you asked for:
Everything that is part of the narrative is enough to be considered a "clue"


Also let it be known that I only argue about the gameboards! If your main motivation is to argue about the events of Rokkenjima prime, then consider this logic battle finished in an eternal stalemate, as neither I can, nor I want to argue about that!
__________________
Due to certain circumstances I am now the "Imouto Instructor"
GreyZone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 09:17   Link #32572
GoldenLand
Eaten by goats
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Rokkenjima
Thank you very much for the summary, ALPHA-Beatrice. I can follow the argument now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
Yasu's statement:
Ushiromiya Kinzo died on November, 1984.


My theories:
Ushiromiya Kinzo died at least on October 4th, 1986 at 00:00:01(IE:At the start of the game) or October 3rd, 1986 at 23:59:59.(Legally outside of the catbox)Or my weakest argument: Kinzo died during the First Twilight, before any other murders occurred.
I don't think that Yasu ever gave a red like that one for Kinzo's death, did she? At any rate, I can't find one.

Anyway, let's see.

We know that "Beatrice's game board lasts two days, from October 4, 1986 to the 5th." and that "Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!" And we also know from Ryukishi's interviews that "...Kinz˘ is someone who died before the construction of the gameboard...".

But I'd say there's no need to argue over the fine details about whether he could, perhaps, have died in the last second of October the 3rd or in the first second of October the 4th, because we have clear reds showing that he had already been dead for a long time before then.

It's not possible for Kinzo to have died in 1986, because in game 5, we are shown scenes taking place prior to the 1985 family conference, followed by reds that Kinzo is already dead and Grandfather is dead at this point in time. He can't possibly have died in 1986. He can only have died prior to the October 1985 family conference.

In the absence of any other information, the day that Beatrice claims to have become a true witch, November the 29th (in 1984), is probably that day, although I don't believe there is any clear red specifying that. However, in Umineko, we do ourselves a disservice if we only pay attention to the red text. So it's more likely than not that he died on that day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
My theory:
Krauss couldn't have possibly of known of Kinzo's body and thereby wasn't covering it up. It might be that he knew, but that it was implausible during either October 3rd or October 4th to give him a proper burial.
But, given that I've just proved that he died before October 1985, it would be next to impossible for Krauss not to have been aware of Kinzo's death for that long. Realistically he must have known. It might have been possible for somebody to conceal it from him for a day or two, if they had a sufficient motive (not that I can think of one) but not for well over a year.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
In regards to embezzlement, I argued that Kinzo had a public trust fund open to the family in general, and that other than the gold this was the Ushiromiya wealth. That pond essentially ran out and the siblings want to extort even more money(which doesn't exist outside of the gold) from Kinzo(Krauss).
I don't think there's any support for that idea in the text. It seems contrary to the things we've been shown, that Krauss is in control of all of Kinzo's assets (except for the gold) and that the others don't have access to it. Of course, I can't prove that in red, so your theory there could be true (assuming that such a trust could exist in Japan at that time), but there's no particular reason to doubt the plain text of the game. Have you found something in the text supporting the idea of a dried out trust fund?
GoldenLand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 09:20   Link #32573
ALPHA-Beatrice
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
I don't have time for everything right now, so I only bother to discuss the most important part for now:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
That won't work! You cannot defend Natsuhi anymore, just give her up!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
The window was never opened after it started raining. A window, per Beatrice's definition, must completely isolate the room from the outside, which means that the moment the window was destroyed by Rudolph, the window stopped existing! Therefore it couldn't ever be opened afterwards. Until here it was just more or less cosmetic, but now for the real thing:

It started raining before Erika even reached the island. Therefore the moment Natsuhi entered, it was definitely raining, regardless of the exact time, as it was still raining non-stop until the investigation itself! Also Battler himself claimed that Natsuhi would without fail realize that the window is opened, when she enters the bedroom, which is natural, as she always checks how well done the cleaning of the servants is, while being a perfectionist about her own cleaning and she would immidietly spot water drops that got into into the room through the window!

Just give it up. I can only say that regarding Natsuhi, this is Checkmate!
It's useless....Absolutely, absolutely useless!

Certainly, your red truth denies my ability to open the window after it rained. But, what about before? This is a two-pronged attack!


It's true that Natushi would absolutely notice the window open. Unless, as Battler deduced with his red truth that Natushi was in a space where she couldn't notice Kinzo for that one second. And again, it doesn't necessarily have to be during the Game itself! Kinzo could have left the room, and existed in the room, before October 4th, 1986.

I'll add another Red Truth Beatrice said that you can't mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo by sight, but no one ever said you couldn't "see" Kinzo in your mind.


In other words, just like her conversation with Beatrice "the alchemist" was real to her, so too was her conversation with "Kinzo" real to her. This doesn't change the fact that the "conversation" "happened", even if Kinzo as a person doesn't exist!



Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Hmm I DO have enough time to answer another thing after all:

You claim that Shannon and Kanon are different people? OK, fine... it is NOT!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grayzero
Even if Erika joins the people of Rokkenjima, there are 17 people! How is that possible?
Because there was never an 18th person to begin with!

Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead at the starting point of all games. We both concur to this. This means that 17 people exist on the island.


Furudo Erika has the same status as Kinzo, in Rokkenjima Prime she was never actually rescued. She is only Lady Bermkastel's piece on the game board, little more.

If I claim that Furudo Erika doesn't actually exist, then there's no contradiction that allows for Shakanontrice's existence.

Knox's 1st! It's forbidden for the culprit to be someone who wasn't introduced in the early parts of the story

Allow me to twist Knox's decalogue a bit.

It's forbidden for the story to be resolved by a as yet unknown character!



And regarding the red truth you asked for:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyzone
Everything that is part of the narrative is enough to be considered a "clue"
Ah, I see. And the narrative infers to the possibility of Krauss/Natsuhi hiding Kinzo's corpse.

I did certainly accept that, and will continue to accept that. After all, I can use the narrative to my side as well.

I find it utterly implausible that Krauss waited 2 years to deal with Kinzo's corpse. I mean, I'm sorry. If Kinzo died in 1984, that's the perfect opportunity, before Eva's investigation to get him buried, get his assets and start to cover his ass.

I think the 1984 date is actually symbolic of Beatrice, and I'm going to play the Battler here.

When did we all stop thinking? As far as preserving the body is concerned. That requires embalming, among other things that might cost quite a hefty sum of money for the supposedly broke Krauss. Furthermore, there's no one not even a servant with that expertise!

1984 is what Ryukishi wants me to think, wants me to believe and I definitely, definitely won't believe it! It's inconsistent.


Wooooooooooooooooooo! It's all useless(Lol)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grayzone
Also let it be known that I only argue about the gameboards! If your main motivation is to argue about the events of Rokkenjima prime, then consider this logic battle finished in an eternal stalemate, as neither I can, nor I want to argue about that!
It wasn't necessarily my argument **finishes another cup of tea**. I just thought as a fellow fan of Umineko, a discussion of Rokkenjima Prime might be interesting. I wouldn't have contested your beliefs one way or another about Prime.

Especially since we have the same basic view that Prime doesn't exist.
ALPHA-Beatrice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 09:57   Link #32574
haguruma
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Germany
Age: 29
Send a message via ICQ to haguruma Send a message via MSN to haguruma
I'll just enter and exit this discussion with two sentences after this.

Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead before the family conference in 1985!

Thank you Manga-Ange for clearing that up.
haguruma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 10:04   Link #32575
GoldenLand
Eaten by goats
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
I'll just enter and exit this discussion with two sentences after this.

Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead before the family conference in 1985!

Thank you Manga-Ange for clearing that up.
Red text from ep 5 already proves that, I think, but good on the manga for making it extra clear. It's really not leaving any wriggle room, is it?
GoldenLand is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 10:36   Link #32576
ALPHA-Beatrice
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenLand View Post
Red text from ep 5 already proves that, I think, but good on the manga for making it extra clear. It's really not leaving any wriggle room, is it?
**Grumbles** I Resign... The Witch of Intellectualism resigning....It's truly a shame.

But even as I resign, I have some weak questions.

According to Lady Erika there's 3 main components to solving a mystery: The Who Dun it, Why Dun it and How they did it.

In my opinion, who and why is partially solved, but partially not solved.

I still can't fathom why Krauss, assuming he's embezzling money from Krauss, allows his corpse to stay in his father's room for a year and a half?

If I were Krauss, in 1984 I would've at the very least said something like 'Kinzo wishes to be buried in his room' or something. If they didn't want to do a proper burial.

And if they preserved the corpse, how could they have possibly done it? I won't bother with who, that'll be unfair. Ryukishi likely didn't give us that information. But surely he gave us enough of a hypothesis to explain the "how dun it'

Last edited by ALPHA-Beatrice; 2013-07-28 at 10:50.
ALPHA-Beatrice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 11:26   Link #32577
GreyZone
"Senior" "Member"
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2012
To think I could have saved so much time just by remembering that one little red truth... well anyway, I refreshed my memory of Umineko a bit, so maybe it is not that bad. A fun "competition" once in a while is not bad either.
__________________
Due to certain circumstances I am now the "Imouto Instructor"
GreyZone is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 12:48   Link #32578
ALPHA-Beatrice
Senior Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
To think I could have saved so much time just by remembering that one little red truth... well anyway, I refreshed my memory of Umineko a bit, so maybe it is not that bad. A fun "competition" once in a while is not bad either.
Agreed. I still believe there's some kind of flaw, Kinzo was dead before either family conference but I don't think there's absolute confirmation that Krauss hid the corpse or that if he did, that Natsuhi could be implicated.

If those things can be implicated, then I still insist that a part of Erika's argument, somewhere is unfounded. During that game in particular, Erika was intellectually dishonest. Especially when she tried to infer an affair with Kinzo.

Basically, I'd like our game to continue somewhere. If you'd like, you can start our next game, Chaos Sorcerer ^^.
ALPHA-Beatrice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 14:32   Link #32579
haguruma
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: Germany
Age: 29
Send a message via ICQ to haguruma Send a message via MSN to haguruma
Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
I still can't fathom why Krauss, assuming he's embezzling money from Krauss, allows his corpse to stay in his father's room for a year and a half?
Because, in case he is actually kept in the study, this is the safest room to keep him. His occult hobby leaves enough room to put all kinds of incenses, perfumes and horribly smelling substances in the room that cover any smell that Kinzo's corpse might produce. Considering that there are enough stories of corpses being discovered years after people died in their own apartment and the study is practically a fortress it's not even necessary that any odor would be noticeable if only slightly concealed.

Also, visitors only come to the island on a rare basis and with the obvious assistance of the servants it's not hard to create the illusion of "hermit Kinzo" for at least a while. On the mainland or outside the mansion, somebody could have stumbled over the digging site, a dog or bird might have dug up a bone, even in the ocean there's the risk of him being washed ashore somewhere else.

Also, it is exactly that point that Kinzo needed to be alive for Krauss' purposes.
He not only used the Ushiromiya fortune as collateral but also the island itself. As soon as Kinzo had been declared dead, people would have come to collect on Krauss and that would have shown that he has nothing and would have thus lost even their home.
haguruma is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2013-07-28, 23:56   Link #32580
Kealym
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Mmmmmmmmmm.

I still disagree with that assessment ; there's no reason to hold onto Kinzo's corpse, at all, since they plan for it to go missing, anyway. The study is a strong holding room, but not impenetrable - if one of the siblings were very insistent, they could still climb into the window, or strong arm Genji into giving them the key.

The land outside the mansion is still uncultivated ... so while the odds of someone finding his corpse out there are technically higher than 0%, it's very insignificant. I don't think there are any overly large animals on Rokkenjima (probably just birds, insects, rodents), or someone would've mentioned it, so if it's buried in an inconspicuous spot, maybe somewhere difficult to reach, it's very unlikely it would ever be found unless the island were to see some major development in the future.

...or we can go fly off the morbidity scale and say they buried him under the rose garden, which causes that one, singular flower to wilt every year.
Kealym is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 23:08.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
We use Silk.