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Old 2013-08-22, 04:57   Link #32861
haguruma
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Renall View Post
Krauss is a big guy and there's no clear indication as to how Nanjo might have incapacitated both he and Natsuhi in such a way as to allow him time to kill them both.
Well, that problem comes up for all of them, but the mention of tranquilizers in EP3 makes it very apparent that at least for those two something along those lines must have been used. Neither Eva, nor George, nor Nanjo...not even Yasu would have had the capacities to kill those two on their own, so something akin to tranquilizers must have been used.

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Nearly anything that would require Nanjo to straight-up fight people seems implausible, to say the least, so he would have to surprise, trick, or otherwise deal with people in an underhanded manner.
And that is technically how all the murders in EP3 seem to have been carried out except for the shoot-out in the hall and Nanjo's murder. Rosa was pushed on a spike, Maria was strangled, Krauss and Natsuhi were strangled by a cord of some kind (apparently not shot) and George was very likely ambushed (at least that is how the scene portrays it).

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Seems like it would've been an ideal time to kill her off, and she's basically helpless. Or was he perhaps planning to do it and just never got around to it on account of getting shot?
Isn't that what it seems like? What reason was there for Yasu to kill Dr. Nanjo but leave Jessica, Battler and Eva alive? The Whodunnit and Howdunnit of that scene is simple, but the Whydunnit always irked me, because unless Yasu was the culprit all the time then there would be no reason to lead Jessica to safety, if it was Eva then there is no reason to attack Nanjo of all the survivors.

Nanjo makes a hell lot of sense and actually makes his last sentence a lot more poignant. "No, please, I have a sick granddaughter...that is why I need all the money!!"

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And if he was surprised by Yasu, does that mean he just assumed the First Twilight to be real? Isn't "confirming" the deaths practically his whole job as an accomplice?
That is actually the one biggest problem with this, why he did not count in Yasu, who was lying right next to George. He might have believed to have actually killed her this time around (as EVA is shown to attack both of them)...but that is the problem with EP3 that it is a narrative, wrapped in a narrative, wrapped in a narrative, disguised as fantasy.
If it actually was Nanjo, it would be Nanjo culprit, interpreted as Eva culprit in the framework of Yasu culprit, disguised as Beatrice culprit.
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Old 2013-08-22, 05:10   Link #32862
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I'm not sure how valid this theory is, but I wonder if the "Kanon would never" "Shannon would never" also has something to do with the fact that as far as I know, Shannon and Kanon have never outlived their love interests. Yasu is a single mind controlling Kanon, but Kanon is a defined being with a certain personality. If Yasu kills Jessica, then Yasu has done something Kanon would never do, and can never claim to be acting as Kanon again. Yasu basically kills and shuts the door on that personality.
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Old 2013-08-22, 05:20   Link #32863
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Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
It is physically impossible to reach the guesthouse from the door of the dining hall in a few seconds.
"Of all the people in the dining hall, not one of them left the dining hall until 1:00 AM...!"

Erika's testimony:
"...we walked out of the archive into the hallway at 1:00 AM. When we did, we just happened to bump into Rosa as she returned."

Tee-hee.

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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
She wouldn't while Kanon "lived". After Kanon "died", Natsuhi as an adult with the gun was the greater threat. Jessica was left to die in the bomb with the rest.
Natsuhi's gun wasn't even loaded, and Beatrice, fully aware, was quite amused by this.

Source: Episode 8 manga.

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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
She supported Rosa because Rosa had solved the epitaph (hinted in EP3 when she was just a step behind Eva,) which is where the gold bars came from. After everyone reneged on the succession part of the agreement, Krauss acting like it never happened and everyone else willing to let him have it just for equal shares (also hinted any other time they were shown finding the gold,) she poisoned them at the Halloween party they all organized together. Beatrice just cut them open, which is why Rosa was genuinely shocked on seeing them again.
In this scenario what's up with Beatrice giving the chapel key to Maria?

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Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker View Post
In a personality construct thing, Shannon would never kill George, and Kanon would never kill Jessica. So even when they survive after these people's deaths,
With the exception of Lambda's game they never do, and I don't think that's a coincidence.

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Originally Posted by haguruma View Post
That is actually the one biggest problem with this, why he did not count in Yasu, who was lying right next to George. He might have believed to have actually killed her this time around (as EVA is shown to attack both of them)...but that is the problem with EP3 that it is a narrative, wrapped in a narrative, wrapped in a narrative, disguised as fantasy.
Actually, when they come across George's body, Shannon's body is completely absent from the scene's description. I've found this quite odd, considering that George's body is supposed to be, like, right next to or on top of hers.
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Old 2013-08-22, 05:43   Link #32864
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I misspoke, I meant even when YASU survives after the deaths of these people.

We have no proof that Kanon and Shannon outlived those two in Lamba's game, their deaths were only confirmed at midnight day 2.
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Old 2013-08-22, 08:25   Link #32865
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Natsuhi's gun wasn't even loaded, and Beatrice, fully aware, was quite amused by this.

Source: Episode 8 manga.
It was loaded, but with blanks or something. Enough to produce smoke but incapable of firing a projectile. She points out Natsuhi couldn't tell the difference, so that suggests the bullets may have been messed with and Natsuhi just doesn't know enough about guns to realize it.

As far as I know nothing says Natsuhi could never have fired, only that the bullet that killed her wasn't from her own gun. Basically she and Beatrice just had to fire at the same time (to create a single sound), but Beatrice was in no danger because Natsuhi didn't have real bullets.

This also explains pretty much that entire ending bit, obviously, and also allows Natsuhi to not be an accomplice (if the gun wasn't loaded she'd probably notice that).
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Actually, when they come across George's body, Shannon's body is completely absent from the scene's description. I've found this quite odd, considering that George's body is supposed to be, like, right next to or on top of hers.
The problem with the theory for me is more the First Twilight. If such a thing were planned out, Nanjo would have a role to play as an accomplice. Remember, the epitaph isn't solved until the plan is put into motion, so something was planned to go on until Eva solved the epitaph. Once she did so, Beatrice would keep her word and stop killing... but Nanjo should still know that she was faking her death in the FT and had originally planned to kill people. The fact that she's stopped doesn't make her any less alive and shouldn't make Nanjo any less aware of that.

If Nanjo is aware that Beatrice is alive, he takes a big risk murdering anyone because he has no idea where Beatrice is and how much she's seen. Now his thought process could certainly be "she can't show herself because she's supposed to be dead, so if I'm careful I can kill everybody and she won't be able to prove it's me." But that still makes dragging Krauss and Natsuhi outside or killing Rosa and Maria outside a bad plan. Killing people inside, where others are, would prevent Beatrice from just stumbling upon the corpses and realizing someone is continuing the murders, and at some point he'd narrow down the suspect pool enough that she'd be on to him.

She's unaccounted-for and unaccountable. She could pop up at literally any time, probably armed with a weapon (as she knows where they are), and shut him down exactly the way she apparently does in ep3. Why didn't Nanjo consider this? Or if he did, why was he so sure he'd get away with it? Sure, if he believed she was dead maybe, but that means he didn't check... and he's the doctor. I mean granted he's a terrible doctor, but even so.
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Old 2013-08-22, 14:37   Link #32866
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Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker View Post
I'm not sure how valid this theory is, but I wonder if the "Kanon would never" "Shannon would never" also has something to do with the fact that as far as I know, Shannon and Kanon have never outlived their love interests. Yasu is a single mind controlling Kanon, but Kanon is a defined being with a certain personality. If Yasu kills Jessica, then Yasu has done something Kanon would never do, and can never claim to be acting as Kanon again. Yasu basically kills and shuts the door on that personality.
From the premise "Kanon is dead", the conclusion that Kanon is a unique existence is logically valid. You could challenge the premise, except that in the scope of the board, Red Truths are truths that can't be challenged, so that conclusion would also have to be truth. The separate premise "Shannon is dead" further implies that they're distinctly unique existences.

Now add to that the existence of "Beatrice", and I'm not sure Yasu can be said to control anything so much as s/he's controlled by them. S/he's only seen to surface to ask questions or make accusations. His/her name is convenient to refer to the 'one of many' collective, but there's no evidence s/he takes any proactive role in the game; s/he's pretty much resigned himself/herself to chance.

It doesn't appear that Beatrice is able to kill George while Shannon is "alive", or Jessica while Kanon is "alive", so has to "kill" those personalities first. The chronology of EP2 4th-6th twilight is kind of sketchy though; between Shannon, George and Gohda, who killed who first? And EP4 2nd twilight; if Shannon called George, did she also meet with him? Why does he have a pretty little headshot instead of a half-demolished skull like everyone else (except Kyrie?)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
Natsuhi's gun wasn't even loaded, and Beatrice, fully aware, was quite amused by this.
I thought of that, too, if Beatrice was only supporting Rudolph, he would've been more pragmatic than to target anyone personally rather than tactically, and when he got the gun from Kinzo's study he would've unloaded/sabotaged any weapon he couldn't carry. I wasn't sure the "man from 19 years ago" spec could apply in any ep other than 5.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
In this scenario what's up with Beatrice giving the chapel key to Maria?
Better question is "what's up with Beatrice being seen by Rosa giving the chapel key to Maria?" As hammy as she is across the board, she doesn't make an appearance on it unless that appearance serves some purpose.

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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
With the exception of Lambda's game they never do, and I don't think that's a coincidence.

Actually, when they come across George's body, Shannon's body is completely absent from the scene's description. I've found this quite odd, considering that George's body is supposed to be, like, right next to or on top of hers.
This is a clue that Shannon/Kanon had nothing to do with it, just like Beatrice appears to be out of the loop in the fantasy scenes.

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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
he's the doctor. I mean granted he's a terrible doctor, but even so.
He kept Kinzo alive over a year after he died. That kind of doctor is a miracle worker!

Last edited by DokEnkephalin; 2013-08-22 at 14:52. Reason: wrong ep
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Old 2013-08-22, 14:59   Link #32867
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Ach, this just occurred to me. After solving Berkastel's ep8 mystery, it was stated in Red "If George committed murder outside the island, sometime before this crime, he could be a 'culprit' without killing anyone on the island, and it would be possible for him to lie."

This means that Kanon and Shannon could've been alive until dead any time before the game started. Then it wouldn't matter when "Kanon is dead" or "Shannon is dead" was delivered, it would always be true.
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Old 2013-08-22, 15:26   Link #32868
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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
Ach, this just occurred to me. After solving Berkastel's ep8 mystery, it was stated in Red "If George committed murder outside the island, sometime before this crime, he could be a 'culprit' without killing anyone on the island, and it would be possible for him to lie."

This means that Kanon and Shannon could've been alive until dead any time before the game started. Then it wouldn't matter when "Kanon is dead" or "Shannon is dead" was delivered, it would always be true.
George would be a 'culprit' of a separate crime that didn't occur on Rokkenjima in such a hypothetical scenario. Such a scenario cannot be used to establish George's guilt.

If guilt were to be established, it would have to be proven that Crime 'X" was related to Crime "Y".
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Old 2013-08-22, 15:27   Link #32869
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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
Ach, this just occurred to me. After solving Berkastel's ep8 mystery, it was stated in Red "If George committed murder outside the island, sometime before this crime, he could be a 'culprit' without killing anyone on the island, and it would be possible for him to lie."

This means that Kanon and Shannon could've been alive until dead any time before the game started. Then it wouldn't matter when "Kanon is dead" or "Shannon is dead" was delivered, it would always be true.
Which is why (amongst other things) I despise shannon/kanon/yasu/beatrice. They can cheat pretty much any red and you can still argue it as "true".

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Quote:
Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
George would be a 'culprit' of a separate crime that didn't occur on Rokkenjima in such a hypothetical scenario. Such a scenario cannot be used to establish George's guilt.

If guilt were to be established, it would have to be proven that Crime 'X" was related to Crime "Y".
Nope. The rules were "cuplrit = murderer". A murderer is a murderer whenever he killed. Could be 20 years ago and unrelated, still a murderer. Don't remember it was stated that "cuplrit = a person who killed on the island"
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Old 2013-08-22, 15:43   Link #32870
DokEnkephalin
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Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice View Post
George would be a 'culprit' of a separate crime that didn't occur on Rokkenjima in such a hypothetical scenario. Such a scenario cannot be used to establish George's guilt.

If guilt were to be established, it would have to be proven that Crime 'X" was related to Crime "Y".
I'm not trying to establish guilt, just pointing out that history prior to the game will be a factor in the premises established in read. So delivering the Red Truth "George is a killer" doesn't necessarily mean he's responsible for the death of anyone on the island. It does imply that he's capable of it, and that can't be ignored. But by the same prior history, Shannon and Kanon could be dead before we, the audience, ever knew them.
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Old 2013-08-22, 16:36   Link #32871
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This isn't a strong arguing point, because it works for literally anybody.

You can literally say "Battler is dead" at any point, and be referring to Asumu's baby, or Eva is dead, and be referring to Eva Peron.

It's a word trick that is possible, I guess, but really, really unlikely to be in actual use anywhere.
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Old 2013-08-22, 16:48   Link #32872
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How strong a point does it have to be if it weakens every other point? When did anyone define their terms? "Battler is dead!" was asserted; did anyone define it as a temporal truth or contextual truth? Or a truth so absolute that even a resurrection could re-assert it?
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Old 2013-08-22, 19:48   Link #32873
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Oi, I guess you're right.
I just mean that it's a logic that can apply universally, not just to Shannon, Kanon, and George.
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Old 2013-08-23, 03:58   Link #32874
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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
Better question is "what's up with Beatrice being seen by Rosa giving the chapel key to Maria?" As hammy as she is across the board, she doesn't make an appearance on it unless that appearance serves some purpose.
To make it harder for Battler to dismiss her as not existing? I actually don't think that either Rosa or Kyrie saw anyone they didn't recognize; I think they just lied and said they did.

I still would like to know why Maria had to have the key at all. That's what I was asking about.

Also it just dawned on me that you seem to be suggesting that the adults decided to have a Halloween party in the chapel by themselves in the middle of the night. Can you expound on that?

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This is a clue that Shannon/Kanon had nothing to do with it, just like Beatrice appears to be out of the loop in the fantasy scenes.
I don't understand what you mean when you say "Beatrice was out of the loop in the fantasy scenes" when in the fantasy scenes she was, like, the whole orchestrator of George's trip to the parlor.

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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
Ach, this just occurred to me. After solving Berkastel's ep8 mystery, it was stated in Red "If George committed murder outside the island, sometime before this crime, he could be a 'culprit' without killing anyone on the island, and it would be possible for him to lie."

This means that Kanon and Shannon could've been alive until dead any time before the game started. Then it wouldn't matter when "Kanon is dead" or "Shannon is dead" was delivered, it would always be true.
Except that there are lots of reds that require them being alive at points during the games, like Kanon being the 9th victim in EP4 for example.
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Old 2013-08-23, 07:30   Link #32875
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Originally Posted by Wanderer View Post
To make it harder for Battler to dismiss her as not existing? I actually don't think that either Rosa or Kyrie saw anyone they didn't recognize; I think they just lied and said they did.
For the sake of the EP2 narrative they did.
This is most likely achieved through (A) Rosa's fragile mental state concerning Beatrice and a disguise (though simple) would possibly throw her off, and (B) Kyrie probably only saw her for a second and did not pay too special attention. It's a usual "disguise" trick in mysteries...it's forbidden for them to be employed on a larger scale, like for example if somebody disguised as Beatrice was constantly with them.

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I don't understand what you mean when you say "Beatrice was out of the loop in the fantasy scenes" when in the fantasy scenes she was, like, the whole orchestrator of George's trip to the parlor.
I think out of the loop rather refers to the fact that she is no longer the one calling the shots on the board. Actually, Gameboard-Beatrice seems to vanish from the Banquet board altogether once EVA has been crowned the witch of this game. The ghost-like being appearing to EVA seems to be the Beato from the meta-plane and seems qute different from the Beato who appeared on the board of the EP2 and EP4 narrative.

She appears to George and tells him of a "way to revive Shannon by borrowing his magic potential" but all these things fall pretty much out of the usual way she is shown...even further she has no influence on the board altogether, down to having to ask Ronove to take care of the stakes.
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Old 2013-08-23, 08:48   Link #32876
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For the sake of the EP2 narrative they did.
This is most likely achieved through (A) Rosa's fragile mental state concerning Beatrice and a disguise (though simple) would possibly throw her off, and (B) Kyrie probably only saw her for a second and did not pay too special attention. It's a usual "disguise" trick in mysteries...it's forbidden for them to be employed on a larger scale, like for example if somebody disguised as Beatrice was constantly with them.
Yeah, Kyrie saw her only very briefly. If someone is in a disguise, what are you going to think if they have some particularly distinct feature - like say, blonde hair - and you only got a quick look at them? No doubt Kyrie would've figured it out in time, but she didn't have that.

And as for Rosa, as you said there's the trauma explanation, but there's also the accomplice explanation. Beatrice meets Rosa, Rosa acts as the accomplice thereafter. Coincidence? Probably not. So it wouldn't matter if Rosa actually recognized Beatrice at some point after they met, because if she's in cahoots with Beatrice she's going to pretend like she doesn't know who she is regardless.
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Old 2013-08-23, 10:08   Link #32877
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To make it harder for Battler to dismiss her as not existing? I actually don't think that either Rosa or Kyrie saw anyone they didn't recognize; I think they just lied and said they did.

I still would like to know why Maria had to have the key at all. That's what I was asking about.

Also it just dawned on me that you seem to be suggesting that the adults decided to have a Halloween party in the chapel by themselves in the middle of the night. Can you expound on that?
Yeah, that part didn't become plausible until Battler insisted to Ange in EP8 that it wasn't unusual for the family to celebrate Halloween. It's possible that Beatrice was supposed to be the 'Santa' for the party, and everyone was playing along with her presence, whether or not they identified her as Shannon in costume (though that part seems unlikely.) Since Maria was Beatrice's apprentice and friend, Beatrice knew she would obey her, so she could be seen by Rosa placing the key without Rosa opening the envelope. Maria loves Beatrice, she would certainly be her most helpful and willing accomplice.

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I don't understand what you mean when you say "Beatrice was out of the loop in the fantasy scenes" when in the fantasy scenes she was, like, the whole orchestrator of George's trip to the parlor.
I thought I was talking about EP5, not EP4; that was the one where George and Jessica died but not Shannon and Kanon, and piece Beatrice acted surprised that the first twilight even happened.

But on the subject of EP4, George was found with a clean hole and little blood when everyone else had half a head. Battler isn't a doctor and didn't actually touch George's body, so his death at that time isn't certain. I suggest Shannon had disguised George as dead to protect him, but after Battler failed to remember his sin, Beatrice killed everyone remaining, including herself, before declaring in Red that everyone was dead except Battler.

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Except that there are lots of reds that require them being alive at points during the games, like Kanon being the 9th victim in EP4 for example.
I realized that after sobering up;] At the very least they would have to be present when their locations were declared, and would have to have died where Beatrice declared they died.
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Old 2013-08-23, 11:57   Link #32878
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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post
But on the subject of EP4, George was found with a clean hole and little blood when everyone else had half a head. Battler isn't a doctor and didn't actually touch George's body, so his death at that time isn't certain. I suggest Shannon had disguised George as dead to protect him, but after Battler failed to remember his sin, Beatrice killed everyone remaining, including herself, before declaring in Red that everyone was dead except Battler.
Wasn't George lying face up in the rain with his eyes open, though? I don't think you can fake that. Your blink reflex would give you away instantly.
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Old 2013-08-23, 12:35   Link #32879
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Wasn't George lying face up in the rain with his eyes open, though? I don't think you can fake that. Your blink reflex would give you away instantly.
The graphic shows him on his side, with glasses on, and the description doesn't contradict that, but it does say the rain was spraying into his eyes. The glasses would've shielded him from some of that, and he only has to keep his eyes open for the time Battler is looking at him. It doesn't seem as plausible that George would distrust Battler so much as to show that determination, to continue faking death, unless George knew Kyrie to be a culprit.

It's also possible that George and Jessica were forced to fight -- my suspicion is that the twilights of this episode were a complete free-for-all rather than single-culprit -- and all Shannon/Kanon did was watch when Jessica killed him.

EDIT: On another topic, does 'suspicious' have the same double connotation in Japanese as in English? When Nanjo in ep2 2nd twilight says, 'The most suspicious are usually the guilty,' it implies 'the most suspected', but might he be dropping a hint if he meant 'full of suspicion'. No one appeared more suspicious of everyone and anyone than Rosa.

Last edited by DokEnkephalin; 2013-08-23 at 12:55.
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Old 2013-08-23, 15:34   Link #32880
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Originally Posted by DokEnkephalin View Post

But on the subject of EP4, George was found with a clean hole and little blood when everyone else had half a head. Battler isn't a doctor and didn't actually touch George's body, so his death at that time isn't certain. I suggest Shannon had disguised George as dead to protect him, but after Battler failed to remember his sin, Beatrice killed everyone remaining, including herself, before declaring in Red that everyone was dead except Battler.
Actually, there may be a less convoluted explanation for that.

The simpliest explanation for the difference in the size of the holes is the range at which the gun was fired. In the case of George, this shot was most likely fired at medium to long range. George's expression is further evidence that this was an ambush kill from a long distance.

For the sake of argument, I call "bull" on the notion that it would be impossible to overpower Krauss even with his size. we're ignoring something quite interesting and not commonly known that definiately relates to the EP3 scenario, the scientific effects of martial arts training on the human body.

Much of the human body's strength potential is "locked" by mental barriers. This is intended to prevent self-destructive uses that would destroy tendons and the like.

Take X/Y. X represents "at will strength" aka strength that can be used consciously even with the "mental locks" activated. Y represents maximum strength potential.

Traditional strength training increases both X and Y because it works directly on the body's muscle strength.

Martial arts training on the other hand, acts by breaking some, but not all of the body's "mental locks". Enough to still be safe to use without wrecking self harm. In short, the primary effect is on X. This leads us to this:

Eva and George have the capability kill Kraus in EP3 without the use of sedatives.

I do admit there is a hole in this theory, namely that we are never told the fighting style of Eva and George.

It is reasonable to assume that George's martial arts style is the same or similar to his mother, since she was the one who taught him how to fight.

With the right style, for example one with extensive usage of leverage, grapples, and holds, the above blue is plausible.
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Last edited by magnum12; 2013-08-23 at 15:53.
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