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Old 2014-06-12, 15:46   Link #21
Triple_R
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IceHism View Post
There's probably a correlation between sales and discussion but it's not causation.
I probably should clarify what I wrote.

I'm not looking for causation here, merely evidence of correlation. If the position is "The shows that get talked about the most on 2ch tend to be the best-selling shows", then a high level of correlation would be enough to support that position.

I'd suggest tracking the 5 most talked about anime TV shows each season over a fairly good stretch of time (let's say we start from Summer 2009 given what's being talked about in this thread - This would give us 15/16 seasons worth of comparisons). Then track the 5 best-selling anime TV shows for each season over the same stretch of time. Finally, see how much overlap there is between the two lists.

For 2ch discussion volume to be considered generally indicative of sales success, I'd probably want to see a degree of overlap at/surpassing 75% for the full list.
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Old 2014-06-12, 23:28   Link #22
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2009 eh?

Wasn't that when Bakemongatari aired?

Piss poor year that one was anyway. I think my favourite of that year was the 2nd season of Spice and Wolf. And a Nodame Cantabile season. Oh and Time of Eve.
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Old 2014-06-12, 23:30   Link #23
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2009, where one overrated and overexposed series (Monogatari) replaced the dominance of another (Haruhi).
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Old 2014-06-12, 23:32   Link #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Archon_Wing View Post
2009, where one overrated and overexposed series (Monogatari) replaced the dominance of another (Haruhi).
Totally forgot that E8 was 2009 . Was Angel Beats 2009? Because if so, add that onto the list too.

Back on topic, hidden gems are called hidden gems for a reason. It's nothing new that some "good" shows are relatively unknown or remain not popular. Take my example of Time of Eve earlier. I wonder how many people cared about that one at the time.
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Old 2014-06-12, 23:49   Link #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pocari_Sweat View Post
Totally forgot that E8 was 2009 . Was Angel Beats 2009? Because if so, add that onto the list too.

Back on topic, hidden gems are called hidden gems for a reason. It's nothing new that some "good" shows are relatively unknown or remain not popular. Take my example of Time of Eve earlier. I wonder how many people cared about that one at the time.
Angel Beats was April 2010. That was a decent season. Some lesser-known gold in that one.
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Old 2014-06-13, 00:23   Link #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pocari_Sweat View Post
Totally forgot that E8 was 2009 . Was Angel Beats 2009? Because if so, add that onto the list too.

Back on topic, hidden gems are called hidden gems for a reason. It's nothing new that some "good" shows are relatively unknown or remain not popular. Take my example of Time of Eve earlier. I wonder how many people cared about that one at the time.
A lot of it is just exposure. Sometimes a work, regardless of medium, just doesn't get known by others and despite how good it is, just won't be recognized.

Hell, look at Citizen Kane being buried just through attempts at bad press and it took many years for vindication.

Honestly, the concept of masterpiece or of any extreme quality is so fragile that we won't really know until a long time in the future. In 10 years, stuff like Madoka and Steins;Gate may just be a distant memory.
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Old 2014-06-13, 01:09   Link #27
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I've set myself up to like a lot of classics, and half the time they don't cut it for me. More importantly, cherish the daylights out of the obscure indie darlings Yuu find. Yume no longer have the time to find Diamonds and Pearls.
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Old 2014-06-15, 00:19   Link #28
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Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Do you have any evidence that being talked about a lot on 2ch tends to lead to a lot of sales? I vaguely recall hearing such an idea hinted at before, but I don't recall ever seeing solid evidence of this, so it would be nice to see that.

In any event, it's possible that the "why" behind the discussion may well be as important as the level of discussion itself. I don't know for certain, but Kokoro Connect and Aku no Hana were likely talked about a lot as well based on the controversies connected to them, but they never sold that well.
I don't think there's anything in Taisho Yakyuu Musume that would cause controversy akin to Kokoro Connect or Aku no Hana's.

As for evidence that 2channel discussion leads to sales, all I'll say is no other show released in 2009 failed to translate 2channel discussion into sales the way Taisho Yakyuu Musume did except Umineko no Naku Koro Ni, which I recall getting roasted by fans of the source material.

Spoiler for supporting data:


Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Well, because of Mari-Mite, I'm a bit skeptical of your theory here. One could arguably counter with Rozen Maiden as well, given what many of the dolls are like ("Desu" was admittedly quite the meme generator in the west, but I'm not sure if that meme made her popular in Japan, given the J-SaiMoe controversy arising from her winning one year).

On the flip-side, I know some period piece anime shows that didn't sell well. Ikoku Meiro no Croisée and Dantalian no Shoka are two that come to mind for me, that we could add to TYM. I'm also inclined to think that this place/time setting difference could have played a role in the big sales difference between Durarara!! and Baccano! (two anime shows that are pretty similar in other ways).

I can't think of a lot of period piece anime shows, so we unfortunately might not have a "large sample size" to work with here. But what I can think of is suggestive to me. I also find the dominance of "modern", "Japan", and "high school" in anime settings to be suggestive.

The big exception to all of the above would admittedly be Jojo's, which is why I wrote "I have found that period pieces don't do that well with anime fans unless they're really stand-out in one way or another."
In the case of the action/adventure show, I think the difference is that Dantalion and Baccano are more or less just 30s style pulp adventures, whereas JoJo is a pulp adventure that also happens to be an over the top, old school shounen. Gives it a certain special sauce/cool factor the others lack.

Some of the most successful moe franchises out there also have their special sauces. K-On!'s characters, for example, gain a certain cool factor by virtue of their band, and also happen to play some popular moe character tropes very well (I think Azusa is good take on the tsundere archetype, for example - she's sometimes tsun because she's sometimes serious in a high strung way).

"Period moe shows" - basically, Ikoku Meiro no Croisee and Taisho Yakyuu Musume - don't really tend to go for cool factor or popular tropes the way that K-On or Saki do. So the fact they're less successful than those shows does not surprise me.

I'm less sure why they're less successful than shows like say Tamayura, Aria the Animation or Hidamari Sketch which also don't rely on cool factor or popular tropes. Those shows never reached K-On level sales, but some of them sold pretty damn well.

A couple notes I'd like to make here:
1) Aria managed to make a lot of money despite not being set in a modern Japanese high school.
2) Taisho Yakyuu Musume is set in a Japanese high school. The 1920s setting allows it to play with some ideas that would seem out of place in a modern setting, but I'd be hard pressed to spot anything important to a moe schoolgirl show that it's missing as the result of its setting - save a few character archetypes that work better in a modern setting and any cool factor they can provide.
3) Again - 31K 2channel posts first month. Even if you don't accept 2channel post count as an indicator of sales, isn't it an indicator of either popularity or controversy? And I'm hard pressed to think of anything in TYM that would be controversial.

It's the combination of those points that makes me unable to accept the theory that the 1920s setting in and of itself turns fans off from buying the discs. That would seem arbitrary and hence absurd.

On the other hand… maybe saying the characters are subdued isn't the right way to frame it, but I felt that TYM lacked characters that stood out from the crowd. And it wasn't exactly a small crowd, we're talking a baseball team of girls. A typical moe show is 4-6 core characters. Not nine.

That, to me, is a way more believable theory. I think attachment to particular characters can be a big driver of disc sales - and that attachment didn't happen here.

(I will note that I bought the R1, but I got it for a fraction the price of the Japanese release.)
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Old 2014-06-15, 09:52   Link #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0 View Post

As for evidence that 2channel discussion leads to sales, all I'll say is no other show released in 2009 failed to translate 2channel discussion into sales the way Taisho Yakyuu Musume did except Umineko no Naku Koro Ni, which I recall getting roasted by fans of the source material.
What you put in spoiler space is a pretty good argument, at least for 2009, but there's a side of this that's being missed a bit.

I mean, where's Haruhi 2009? That aired over Summer 2009, IIRC. It's sales were somewhat disappointing given what one might expect of Haruhi at the time, but it was still a hit seller.

For me, at least, it's not just a question of some shows being talked about a lot on 2Chan selling a lot. It's also a question of how many of the big sellers don't get talked about a lot on 2Chan.


Quote:
In the case of the action/adventure show, I think the difference is that Dantalion and Baccano are more or less just 30s style pulp adventures, whereas JoJo is a pulp adventure that also happens to be an over the top, old school shounen. Gives it a certain special sauce/cool factor the others lack.
Agreed. Which fits with the argument I made before of "I have found that period pieces don't do that well with anime fans unless they're really stand-out in one way or another."


Quote:
I'm less sure why they're less successful than shows like say Tamayura, Aria the Animation or Hidamari Sketch which also don't rely on cool factor or popular tropes.
Well, my period piece theory would account for this difference.


Quote:

A couple notes I'd like to make here:
1) Aria managed to make a lot of money despite not being set in a modern Japanese high school.
I never said there's not any exceptions at all. But you have to admit that "modern", "Japan", and "high school" are very common settings in anime, almost certainly accounting for a solid majority of all anime shows between the three of them. I think this does point to a very real setting preference on the part of the anime fanbase in Japan.

If there is an exception, a futuristic or sci-fi setting would be it (as we see right now with Knights of Sidonia). Aria has a very sci-fi setting, which I think distinguishes it from period pieces.


Quote:
3) Again - 31K 2channel posts first month. Even if you don't accept 2channel post count as an indicator of sales, isn't it an indicator of either popularity or controversy?
Perhaps there was some interest in it because it reminded some people of K-On.


Quote:
It's the combination of those points that makes me unable to accept the theory that the 1920s setting in and of itself turns fans off from buying the discs.
I don't think it's the full reason, but I think it's a factor. I don't think it's "arbitrary" or "absurd" to think that. Do you think there's something illegitimate about setting preferences? I don't think it's "wrong" for people to favor familiar settings over unfamiliar ones. Familiar settings can have an accessibility edge over less familiar ones for fairly obvious reasons. Now, if the unfamiliar setting seems "cool" in some fashion than maybe that can overcome the accessibility disadvantage. But I think that a past setting, one lacking all those neat gizmos that many of us modern people like, might have a harder time seeming "cool" to people.

I might have more to write later, but I'll leave it at this for now.
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Old 2014-06-15, 14:27   Link #30
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I wonder why Soreike! Anpanman (an insanely* popular kodomo anime series by Takashi Yanase**) never gets that much attention outside of the Japanese subcontinent^. It gets respectable airing in South Korea (for some reason unknown to the character himself) His closest rival (Doraemon) is humiliating him internationally (or at least in Spain, India, Vietnam, etc).

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*Insanely popular in Japan at least.
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^Reasons: NTV placing paywalls on their entire online TV service, TMS mass-murdering those who upload episodes to YouTube, and reluctancy to release any English versions (of any kind, sub or dub, by official means) Melonpanna-Chan^^ is not pleased.

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Old 2014-06-15, 15:43   Link #31
0utf0xZer0
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
What you put in spoiler space is a pretty good argument, at least for 2009, but there's a side of this that's being missed a bit.

I mean, where's Haruhi 2009? That aired over Summer 2009, IIRC. It's sales were somewhat disappointing given what one might expect of Haruhi at the time, but it was still a hit seller.

For me, at least, it's not just a question of some shows being talked about a lot on 2Chan selling a lot. It's also a question of how many of the big sellers don't get talked about a lot on 2Chan.
Main reason why I didn't look into that issue is I don't really see it affecting my thesis - that no other show in 2009 failed to translate discussion into sales like TYM did save an explainable case.

But since you asked about Haruhi specifically, as I admitted in my data section, I'm not including sequels in the list save Darker than Black II because the way 2channel threads work makes comparison with non-sequels a PITA - discussion is not separated by season. I can tell you, however, that the Haruhi franchise as a whole held the record for most discussed franchise on 2ch until Madoka.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
I never said there's not any exceptions at all. But you have to admit that "modern", "Japan", and "high school" are very common settings in anime, almost certainly accounting for a solid majority of all anime shows between the three of them. I think this does point to a very real setting preference on the part of the anime fanbase in Japan.

If there is an exception, a futuristic or sci-fi setting would be it (as we see right now with Knights of Sidonia). Aria has a very sci-fi setting, which I think distinguishes it from period pieces.
Maybe I'm missing a piece of the picture because I never watched much Aria, but I'm not sure I agree that "Venice with moe girls as the gondoliers" becomes very sci-fi just because the story says it's set on Mars. The plot says sci-fi, but I'd call the execution a "place piece", and hence I see it as much closer to TYM than Knights of Sidonia.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Perhaps there was some interest in it because it reminded some people of K-On.
If you look at it the right way, TYM does have some K-On similarities - ie. they both open with the lead girl late for school. But TYM is not Sora no Woto, whose K-On similarities were blatant and could be interpreted as trying to attract attention. If anything, I'd say that TYM got noticed because it's late for school opener is really good and might have even generated a few memes - things I'd expect to boost sales as well.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
I don't think it's the full reason, but I think it's a factor. I don't think it's "arbitrary" or "absurd" to think that. Do you think there's something illegitimate about setting preferences? I don't think it's "wrong" for people to favor familiar settings over unfamiliar ones. Familiar settings can have an accessibility edge over less familiar ones for fairly obvious reasons. Now, if the unfamiliar setting seems "cool" in some fashion than maybe that can overcome the accessibility disadvantage. But I think that a past setting, one lacking all those neat gizmos that many of us modern people like, might have a harder time seeming "cool" to people.
What makes it seem arbitrary or absurd to me is that I can't find an underlying, logical reason for it to be the case. You raise accessibility as a reason period anime fail, and in many case I'd agree. I don't agree that's the case with TYM.

I think that Baccano and Dantalion failed because anime fans just didn't have a taste for "pulp adventure in the 30s", and JoJo succeeded by finding other ways to make the series "cool". But while shows like K-On did get a boost from being cool, that's never been essential to a moe show.

I just don't think the accessibility issue applies to Taisho Yakyuu Musume. I can't see any accessibility issues that arise from the 20s setting (unlike with Dantalion and Baccano - the latter exacerbated by the storytelling method). )It's pretty much as accessible as any other schoolgirl anime. And the entire point of quoting the 2ch numbers is that they suggest that the 20s setting didn't stop people from watching it. I do not see how an accessibility issue could affect sales if it was not evident when the show was airing.

On the other hand, we know the show didn't sell well and we know that it's characters aren't nearly as well known and popular as those in K-On and Saki. Seems to me like the show's failure was in failing to get audiences pumped about the characters in a way that would drive sales - that, and getting released just after K-On and Saki had given moe fan's wallets a beating.
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