Ukrainian Conflict

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by konart

Okay, instead of being quiet they are trying to make everything worse:

https://vk.com/public62043361?w=wall-62043361_105232

Right wing leader Dmitri Yarosh asks Doku Umarov for assistance. Brilliant.

Nazi ask help from terrorist - best way to deal with current situation

Not sure if someone is suicidal or what....

[serenade_beta]

I haven't heard "Crimea" since I played the GC Fire Emblem... <-- random story

[sbg711]

Ukrainian military resigning en masse

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-military-russia-resign-437/

[konart]

Not sure if this was posted yesterday:

YouTube

https://youtu.be/GkiSPMpTp_I

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[Dhomochevsky]

From the spill of U.S. diplomatic cables via Wikileaks, here are some interesting bits that seem to predict the current situation.

The Wikileaks cables that anticipated the russian invasion of the crimea

This outcome seems to have been in the making for quite some time, which would explain the fast reaction from Russia.
On the other hand, with information like this and looking at what happened in Georgia, it shouldn't have come as a surprise to any western leaders either.

[RRW]

[konart]

Originally Posted by RRW

Old news: http://www.businessinsider.com/russi...-hacked-2014-3

[Tom Bombadil]

I think the Ukraine mess is almost your text book proxy-war, except no war has started yet. This follows the post-cold-war trend of NATO pushing its sphere influence into the the former eastern block, and in this case, right onto Russia's door step. The protest were instigated, made use of, or supported by the west. No matter whichever choice of word fits your point of view, the goal is crystal clear, to usurp Ukraine from the influence of Russia and install a pro-western government.

However, it is quite a miscalculation (remember the F**K EU quote?) since having a buffer zone between big powers is actually a lot more desirable than direct confrontations. There is a certain determination and tolerance for pain on the Russian side since their core interest is at risk. The pundits predicting no Russian intervention underestimated this determination. On the other hand, Ukraine is just something to gain for NATO. They get it, it is all good. If not, the mess is left with the Ukraine, even some bordering nations. They will pay some billions of dollars, but no other risks will be taken. That's why you see all these words are flying toward the wall. Maybe some of them will stick. Who knows.

Interestingly, Putin already explained the risk of Ukraine during a 2008 speech to NATO.

But in Ukraine, one third are ethnic Russians. Out of forty five million people, in line with the official census, seventeen millions are Russians. There are regions, where only the Russian population lives, for instance, in the Crimea. 90% are Russians. Generally speaking, Ukraine is a very complicated state. Ukraine, in the form it currently exists, was created in the Soviet times, it received its territories from Poland – after the Second World war, from Czechoslovakia, from Romania – and at present not all the problems have been solved as yet in the border region with Romania in the Black Sea. Then, it received huge territories from Russia in the east and south of the country. It is a complicated state formation. If we introduce into it NATO problems, other problems, it may put the state on the verge of its existence. Complicated internal political problems are taking place there. We should act also very-very carefully. We do not have any right to veto, and, probably, we do not pretend to have. But I want that all of us, when deciding such issues, realize that we have there our interests as well. Well, seventeen million Russians currently live in Ukraine. Who may state that we do not have any interests there? South, the south of Ukraine, completely, there are only Russians.

The Crimea was merely received by Ukraine with the decision of the KPSS Political Bureau. There were not even any state procedures on transferring this territory. We have been calm and responsible about these problems. We are not trying to provoke anything, we have been acting very carefully, but we ask our partners to act reasonably as well.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

It's not a proxy war if you have your actual troops on the ground. Russian soldiers are in Ukraine, so this is NOT a proxy war. If this is a proxy war we would be better off. But since Putin decided he is going to send his actual citizens to invade, this isn't proxy anymore; either his troops leave, or we have an actual hot war in our hands.

[Tom Bombadil]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

It's not a proxy war if you have your actual troops on the ground. Russian soldiers are in Ukraine, so this is NOT a proxy war. If this is a proxy war we would be better off. But since Putin decided he is going to send his actual citizens to invade, this isn't proxy anymore; either his troops leave, or we have an actual hot war in our hands.

I am talking about the whole picture rather than what has happened during the past two days.

As for the future scenario, I think Ukraine can pretty much say goodbye to Crimea unless they regain it as a scotched ground after the fire of war. The eastern Ukraine is a different matter, you have at least three options, (1) they stay in Ukraine but with great autonomy; (2)they form another independent state; (3) they get absorbed into Russia. I think option (1) is the likely course, since it is kind of compromise. Option (2) is just creating a north/south Korea or Vietnam situation, with infinite trouble down the road. Option (3) might be too bold even for Putin.

Of course, this is assuming that Russia have the upper hand, which they certainly do at the moment. If the western side has the upper hand (by whichever way), expect a purge in eastern Ukraine. If Mao Zedong has ever said anything correct, he has the following cruel message: revolution is not about inviting guests and sharing food.

[Der Langrisser]

Another view of the "mass resigning" of ukrainian troops in Crimea.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140302

[AmeNoJaku]

There is no way that Ukraine can remain united, both linguistic groups are supporting fascists and corrupt businessmen with conflicting interests. At best, the south-west will end up as Transnistria and Abkhazia. At worst, there will be a prolonged civil war, like in Yugoslavia. In any case, again many people will die and a lot more plunged into poverty so very few in Russia or the US and Germany can get a little richer.

[sbg711]

Commander of the Ukrainian navy defects and swears allegiance to people of Crimea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt9efnLV4UY

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by sbg711

Commander of the Ukrainian navy defects and swears allegiance to people of Crimea

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zt9efnLV4UY

Wasn't this the same guy who the ex-president tried putting in charge of the army when the armies loyalty was uncertain? This isn't exactly all that surprising.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Der Langrisser

Another view of the "mass resigning" of ukrainian troops in Crimea.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140302

"You don't just, in the 21st century, behave in 19th century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped-up pretext," Kerry told CBS program Face the Nation.

not a lot of credibility form the US here.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

not a lot of credibility form the US here.

I am not sure what you want him to say. Most in his country admit that America got into trouble doing occupations, so it's not like he is pretending that never happened. He is merely speaking for those who forced him to cancel the bombing of Syria.

I mean, what else do you want him to say? Support Putin?

[sbg711]

Originally Posted by Der Langrisser

Another view of the "mass resigning" of ukrainian troops in Crimea.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/...A1Q1E820140302

It's funny to hear and see such words as "Ukraine mobilizes", considering a mobilisation is not a cheap luxury, and Ukraine has exactly how much money now?

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by sbg711

It's funny to hear and see such words as "Ukraine mobilizes", considering a mobilisation is not a cheap luxury, and Ukraine has exactly how much money now?

Maybe Ukraine should ask the former ruler where all the money has gone. Oh, right, he is under Russian protection. No point mocking their finances when one of the people who sucked up the money is still being defended.

[sbg711]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Maybe Ukraine should ask the former ruler where all the money has gone. Oh, right, he is under Russian protection. No point mocking their finances when one of the people who sucked up the money is still being defended.

Then same goes for Timoshenko who signed a tax-robbing deal, and pretty much for every single Ukrainian leader in the past 20 years

[Haak]

Originally Posted by Tom Bombadil

The protest were instigated, made use of, or supported by the west. No matter whichever choice of word fits your point of view, the goal is crystal clear, to usurp Ukraine from the influence of Russia and install a pro-western government.

As far as I'm aware of, the only thing the West has actually done is try to facilitate a compromise between Yanukovich and the opposition, and when that didn't work they simply gave diplomatic support the people who were now effectively in power.