AnimeSuki Forums

AnimeFan188 · 2012-10-11, 18:11

"The short-run problems of the Middle East appear intractable because they are
irruptions of long-term problems, in a self-aggravating regional disturbance. It's
like August 1914, but without the same civilizational implications:"

"Egypt cannot achieve stability under a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood
regime any more than it could under military dictatorship, because 60 years of
sham modernization atop a pre-modern substratum have destroyed the country's
capacity to function.

Turkey cannot solve its Kurdish problem today because the Kurds know that time
is on their side: with a fertility three times that of ethnic Turks, Anatolian Kurds
will comprise half the country's military-age population a generation from now.

Syria cannot solve its ethnic and religious civil conflicts because the only
mechanism capable of suppressing them - a dictatorship by a religious minority -
exhausted its capacity to do so.

Iraq's Shi'ite majority cannot govern in the face of Sunni opposition without
leaning on Iran, leaving Iran with the option to destabilize and perhaps,
eventually, to dismember the country.

And Iran cannot abandon or even postpone its nuclear ambitions, because the
collapse of its currency on the black market during the past two weeks reminds its
leaders that a rapidly-aging population and fast-depleting oil reserves will lead to
an economic breakdown of a scale that no major country has suffered in the
modern era."

See:

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NJ10Ak02.html

It all reminds me of this quote from Syriana:

"You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred
years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's
heads off and that's where you'll be in another hundred years,"

Where is the Middle-East headed in the years to come?

Urzu 7 · 2012-10-11, 18:21

I'm concerned about humanity and the world. I ask the question "Where is the world heading in the years to come?".

As an American, I also think "Where is the USA heading in the years to come?".

james0246 · 2012-10-11, 18:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by AnimeFan188

Where is the Middle-East headed in the years to come?

I'm an optomist at heart, and I believe (or at least hope) that the Middle East will be entering a contextual period of Enlightenment (similar to Europe post Renassiance). I do not know what this period will look like, but I do believe that the minority fanaticism will be weakened considerably in the next 30 years, especially as global communication improves.

That being said, lets keep the discussion focused on the OP, and remember to always be considerate of others in this discussion. Otherwise, expect the eventual warning, infraction or potential ban .

Urzu 7 · 2012-10-11, 18:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by james0246

I'm an optomist at heart, and I believe (or at least hope) that the Middle East will be entering a contextual period of Enlightenment (similar to Europe post Renassiance). I do not know what this period will look like, but I do believe that the minority fanaticism will be weakened considerably in the next 30 years, especially as global communication improves.

I, myself, am an optimist. Even still, I have concerns about my nation and the world.

I hope what you speculate will happen for the Middle-East. That relatively soon it'll enter a sort of age of enlightenment. If I live to be an elderly man, I hope to see the world be better then than it is now, and I hope to see the Middle-East become better by then, too.

aohige · 2012-10-12, 01:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by james0246

I do not know what this period will look like, but I do believe that the minority fanaticism will be weakened considerably in the next 30 years, especially as global communication improves.

I've said this for years as well.
The globalization of communication has been the biggest advancement of mankind in the past century, even more so than discovery of nuclear energy, and it's the key in lowring the barriers between individuals.
The tyrants will try as they may, but the sheer fact is, people will inevidably feel attached to other individuals they can exchange with, instead of a dusty, old teachings of authoritarian values.

There will be resistences met, and it'll take time.
But I doubt it'll take centuries as some cynics predict, looking at how much changed in Asia and the West in the mere past fifty years.

risingstar3110 · 2012-10-12, 02:00

We can answer that by asking the opposite question, what Middle East is not heading toward?

A strong united Islamic block with greater influences toward the rest of the world

As unless Israel start to bend down, Israel will surely face the Islam wrath for what they are doing right now by that time (sorry Israel, but you have a really bad record so far in this 20th century with the Muslims). So Western nations won't allow that to happen; and any power the Middle East Islam possess, will have to be containable by a superior Israel or US forces.

Middle East Total War

Very less likely as the most rich and powerful countries there (except Israel and Iran) are doing very well without conflicts (UAE and Saudi). And they are also big lenders to US and Europe (as i remember). So unless some major crisis happens, they won't enter the tray, means a skirmish or one-side total military dominance is worst case scenario

Christianity

...

So to sum up, they will always be mostly Muslims, there will always be conflicts (military or not) between each countries but no major scaled war. And oil nations will always be filthy rich

aohige · 2012-10-12, 02:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

And oil nations will always be filthy rich

Because oil is such an infinite resource.

NoemiChan · 2012-10-12, 02:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by aohige

Because oil is such an infinite resource.

No its not...

aohige · 2012-10-12, 02:29

You may wanna have that sarcasm detector checked up.

NoemiChan · 2012-10-12, 02:37

Quote:

Originally Posted by aohige

You may wanna have that sarcasm detector checked up.

Oh, sorry.. I'm not used to it...

Anyway... As long as people in the Middle East continues to misinterprets the Book and goes on with their modern barbaric ways.. There is no good future there without blood shed

risingstar3110 · 2012-10-12, 06:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by aohige

Because oil is such an infinite resource.

It's not like they are living on oil only, you know....

UAE, Saudi Arab, Qatar have been major destination of FDI investments within these last few decades. True that when it counts by total accumulated FDI, US, France, UK and Germany (in order) is still the top destination with Hongkong, Belgium, Spain to follow . However if you count per capital, it will be something like this:

US: $7,900
Saudi: $7,300
UAE: $9,600
Qatar: $14,400

Shay · 2012-10-12, 06:50

For starters we need to win the war on terror. Easier said than done, I know. But they need to realise that fanatics who do things like shoot 14 year old girls in the head for speaking out against their barbaric beliefs must be stopped. And we, the west need to help them to do that.

Again, easier said that than done; but while these certain organisations still hold weight in any way shape or form, there is no hope.

DonQuigleone · 2012-10-12, 07:36

Here's what I don't get, why does the Middle East get this outsized amount of attention(particularly in the USA)? Why don't we pay more attention to South East Asia? Mexico and Central America (a lot closer to home that...)? South America? Sub Saharan Africa? All of these regions have social and political problems as bad as the Middle East.

LeoXiao · 2012-10-12, 10:50

Because there are terrorists in the Middle East that are hellbent on attacking us. Obviously.

aohige · 2012-10-12, 10:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

It's not like they are living on oil only, you know....

UAE, Saudi Arab, Qatar have been major destination of FDI investments within these last few decades. True that when it counts by total accumulated FDI, US, France, UK and Germany (in order) is still the top destination with Hongkong, Belgium, Spain to follow . However if you count per capital, it will be something like this:

US: $7,900
Saudi: $7,300
UAE: $9,600
Qatar: $14,400

Eh, but those FDI are fueled by (pun intended) oil interest.
They aren't investing into the country for no reason.

RRW · 2012-10-12, 13:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by aohige

Because oil is such an infinite resource.

sure but it will takes ages. and by the time it finish. pretty sure they have enough money to start new business investment

DonQuigleone · 2012-10-12, 13:23

Quote:

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

Because there are terrorists in the Middle East that are hellbent on attacking us. Obviously.

What about the drug lords in Mexico hellbent on profiting from...

Ah, of course, Capitalism is A-OK!

Ithekro · 2012-10-12, 14:29

War on Drugs....still going. Difference is the amount of explosives used to kill people.

Kyuu · 2012-10-12, 14:53

Through my church's ESL program, I managed to come across a middle aged man from Egypt. And he pretty much talked about the ground level problems over there.

And I can sum it up in this manner:
The Middle East is full of highly educated and skilled people -- with no work. The Arab Spring was a clear rebellion against the leadership, who did not provide the political environment helpful in the creation of jobs.

LeoXiao · 2012-10-12, 15:44

Quote:

Originally Posted by DonQuigleone

What about the drug lords in Mexico hellbent on profiting from...

Ah, of course, Capitalism is A-OK!

Everyone knows that the drug lords are also terrorists, they are brown and speak a funny language that I don't know.

But the real problems are in the Middle East, where our boys are protecting America in Afghanistan as we speak.

2012-10-11, 18:11	Link #1
AnimeFan188 Senior Member Join Date: Jan 2008	Where the Middle-East is headed. "The short-run problems of the Middle East appear intractable because they are irruptions of long-term problems, in a self-aggravating regional disturbance. It's like August 1914, but without the same civilizational implications:" "Egypt cannot achieve stability under a democratically elected Muslim Brotherhood regime any more than it could under military dictatorship, because 60 years of sham modernization atop a pre-modern substratum have destroyed the country's capacity to function. Turkey cannot solve its Kurdish problem today because the Kurds know that time is on their side: with a fertility three times that of ethnic Turks, Anatolian Kurds will comprise half the country's military-age population a generation from now. Syria cannot solve its ethnic and religious civil conflicts because the only mechanism capable of suppressing them - a dictatorship by a religious minority - exhausted its capacity to do so. Iraq's Shi'ite majority cannot govern in the face of Sunni opposition without leaning on Iran, leaving Iran with the option to destabilize and perhaps, eventually, to dismember the country. And Iran cannot abandon or even postpone its nuclear ambitions, because the collapse of its currency on the black market during the past two weeks reminds its leaders that a rapidly-aging population and fast-depleting oil reserves will lead to an economic breakdown of a scale that no major country has suffered in the modern era." See: http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NJ10Ak02.html It all reminds me of this quote from Syriana: "You know what the business community thinks of you? They think that a hundred years ago you were living in tents out here in the desert chopping each other's heads off and that's where you'll be in another hundred years," Where is the Middle-East headed in the years to come?

2012-10-11, 18:21	Link #2
Urzu 7 Juanita/Kiteless Join Date: Apr 2006 Location: New England Age: 40	I'm concerned about humanity and the world. I ask the question "Where is the world heading in the years to come?". As an American, I also think "Where is the USA heading in the years to come?". __________________

2012-10-12, 02:00	Link #6
risingstar3110 ✘˵╹◡╹˶✘ Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: Australia	We can answer that by asking the opposite question, what Middle East is not heading toward? A strong united Islamic block with greater influences toward the rest of the world As unless Israel start to bend down, Israel will surely face the Islam wrath for what they are doing right now by that time (sorry Israel, but you have a really bad record so far in this 20th century with the Muslims). So Western nations won't allow that to happen; and any power the Middle East Islam possess, will have to be containable by a superior Israel or US forces. Middle East Total War Very less likely as the most rich and powerful countries there (except Israel and Iran) are doing very well without conflicts (UAE and Saudi). And they are also big lenders to US and Europe (as i remember). So unless some major crisis happens, they won't enter the tray, means a skirmish or one-side total military dominance is worst case scenario Christianity ... So to sum up, they will always be mostly Muslims, there will always be conflicts (military or not) between each countries but no major scaled war. And oil nations will always be filthy rich __________________

2012-10-12, 02:29	Link #9
aohige ( ಠ_ಠ) Join Date: Jul 2006 Location: Somewhere, between the sacred silence and sleep	You may wanna have that sarcasm detector checked up. __________________

2012-10-12, 06:50	Link #12
Shay Monarch Programmer Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Liverpool Age: 42	For starters we need to win the war on terror. Easier said than done, I know. But they need to realise that fanatics who do things like shoot 14 year old girls in the head for speaking out against their barbaric beliefs must be stopped. And we, the west need to help them to do that. Again, easier said that than done; but while these certain organisations still hold weight in any way shape or form, there is no hope. __________________ Current Anime - Attack on Titan Current Manga - Naruto Current Book - Waiting for War of the Roses Current Album - Vessel by Twenty One Pilots

2012-10-12, 07:36	Link #13
DonQuigleone Knight Errant Join Date: Dec 2007 Location: Dublin, Ireland Age: 35	Here's what I don't get, why does the Middle East get this outsized amount of attention(particularly in the USA)? Why don't we pay more attention to South East Asia? Mexico and Central America (a lot closer to home that...)? South America? Sub Saharan Africa? All of these regions have social and political problems as bad as the Middle East.

2012-10-12, 10:50	Link #14
LeoXiao 思想工作 Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: Vereinigte Staaten Age: 31	Because there are terrorists in the Middle East that are hellbent on attacking us. Obviously.

2012-10-12, 14:29	Link #18
Ithekro Gamilas Falls Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: Republic of California Age: 46	War on Drugs....still going. Difference is the amount of explosives used to kill people. __________________

2012-10-12, 14:53	Link #19
Kyuu =^^= Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: 42° 10' N (Latitude) 87° 33' W (Longitude) Age: 45	Through my church's ESL program, I managed to come across a middle aged man from Egypt. And he pretty much talked about the ground level problems over there. And I can sum it up in this manner: The Middle East is full of highly educated and skilled people -- with no work. The Arab Spring was a clear rebellion against the leadership, who did not provide the political environment helpful in the creation of jobs. __________________ Japanese Mahjong Group \| Currently Watching List \| Click on this - I dare you.