2008-05-31, 18:13 | Link #1001 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Congratulations Florida and Michigan, you are both half a state.
Florida delegates are fully instated as per the election results with .5 votes each by a 27-0 vote. Michigan delegates are fully instated as per the statistical election results (55% Clinton, 45% Obama) with .5 votes each by a 19-8 vote. This is fair since this gives them the same weighting as they have in the republican primary and still punishes them for breaking the rules. Now, the real fun is going to be in counting the popular vote. FL is easy, but MI is going to be extremely hard since they altered the allocation. Last edited by bayoab; 2008-05-31 at 18:34. Reason: Added more, links |
2008-05-31, 18:18 | Link #1002 | |
Hina is my goddess
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Dec 2005
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2008-05-31, 18:23 | Link #1004 | |
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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Sokar, if they did that both state would have turn red.
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2008-05-31, 20:59 | Link #1005 |
Bittersweet Distractor
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 32
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I think they should have got all their delegates back. It is complete BS that certain states always get to go first. It gives an enormous influence in our primary elections that is just unfair. I personally supported them in standing up to our current system.
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2008-05-31, 21:12 | Link #1006 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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There is no mathematical way for a state to have any advantage by going ahead of another. The only advantage that can be gained is psychological and that is because people hype it up themselves. |
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2008-05-31, 21:28 | Link #1008 | |
Bittersweet Distractor
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 32
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2008-05-31, 21:29 | Link #1009 |
Hina is my goddess
Graphic Designer
Join Date: Dec 2005
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That itself can have a drastic effect on the outcome of the primary. If a candidate is doing poorly, they receive less donations. Less donations means less money on the campaign. Less money means they will do poorly. And it will snowball from there.
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2008-05-31, 22:20 | Link #1010 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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On a complete separate note, all of the Clinton supporters who claim the DNC just gave the election to McCain and then continue on to say they are voting for McCain if Obama is the nominee make me wishes bad logic could actually hurt people.
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There are some states that, no matter when they go, will not change. (Type I) [These are the ones where the polls start A>B and never change.] There are some states that the result will change no matter when they go. It will make a difference if they are twenty first or twenty second. (Type II) [These are the ones where the polls are constantly very close.] There are some states that, because they do not go first, will change. (Type III) [These are the ones where the polls flip after the primary starts. A>B => B>A] And lastly, there are the states will only change if they are placed in the end because the election has already been settled. (Type F) [These are when polling has been stopped because the election is over.] All states are Type I (or Type II) until something major happens psychologically or is pushed by the media into believing something is happening. Last edited by bayoab; 2008-05-31 at 22:40. Reason: Added first part... |
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2008-05-31, 23:10 | Link #1011 | |
Aria Company
Join Date: Nov 2003
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As for Clinton supporters who say they'll vote for McCain, they'll probably change their tune when he picks a runningmate. I expect a conservative vp candidate to be picked.
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2008-06-01, 02:06 | Link #1012 |
Prospective Cog
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Los Angeles, CA
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The Democratic Party is in a very precarious position: On one hand, they can take the approach exemplified by Kamui4356, wherein they tell Florida and Michigan to bug off because the didn't follow the rules, or, they attempt to accommodate them in some fashion.
Now, while the first position is perhaps the 'right' position to take (and I say that as a big Bill-ary Clinton supporter), it is also the stupid one. The fact of the matter is, Florida matters tremendously in this election. Basically, if B. Hussein Obama is going to have any shot of winning the presidency, he has to win two out of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. He has a pretty good shot at Pennsylvania but trails McCain in the other two states, especially in Ohio, which is filled with the white, blue collar, working class voters that seem to abhor him. Thus we come to one undeniable conclusion, Obama really needs Florida, and going about alienating the state by stripping it of its delegates is going to come back and really bite him in the...well, you know. |
2008-06-01, 12:30 | Link #1013 | |
Bittersweet Distractor
Join Date: Nov 2007
Age: 32
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The VP doesn't hold any power, so it really doesn't matter. Well maybe it does, Mccain is quite old...
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2008-06-01, 14:32 | Link #1014 |
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Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: Boston
Age: 35
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There's a reason why only four states are allowed to vote early: it gives less well known and less financed candidates a chance to make a name for themselves by concentrating their campaigning on small states. If the primary season just started out with one big super Tuesday with 20 states voting at once, Obama would've been recked by Clinton.
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2008-06-01, 14:46 | Link #1015 | |
Not Enough Sleep
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 48
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the 08 primary aside. 90% of the time the candidate who wins the first few states will win it all. Why iowa and California? Why Sout Carolina and Not Florida? Why NH and not New Mexico?
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2008-06-01, 15:03 | Link #1016 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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Now the problem with these two is, as the RBC said, they are mostly middle class whites. Thus they added South Carolina because they wanted a state with a large African American voting population and it would add a representative voice in the South. They added Nevada for a western state with a sizable non-upper class white population. Edit: I actually went and looked up the stats. NH has a 75% Nomination rate for Republicans, and a 50% Nomination rate for Democrats. Iowa has a 66% Nomination rate for both parties. Last edited by bayoab; 2008-06-01 at 15:13. |
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2008-06-01, 15:27 | Link #1017 | ||
Aria Company
Join Date: Nov 2003
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debate, elections, politics, united_states |
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