2011-08-28, 14:40 | Link #23941 |
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A problem with that, however, is that Bern had difficulties locating information about the epitaph solution. None of that would've been necessary if she could have gone and peeked outside the box. There's no reason she oughtn't be able to, right? It's just for informational purposes. It should be relatively trivial, in fact, but she makes it out to have been difficult to find.
If Bern can access external, irrelevant realities, reconstructing the incident actually becomes easy. Think about it for a little bit; you can only use fragments that fit the premise, but you can examine or reference fragments that don't. How much information would you be able to get out of that? Essentially, 99.9999999% of it. She's either not doing this, which doesn't appear to fit her personality (Bern is not sporting, and Bern has every reason to use all information available to her), or she can't do this, which means there's some arbitrary limit on what she can examine.
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2011-08-28, 14:49 | Link #23942 |
別にいいけど
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My initial theory was that Bern could only browse among fictions. In other words there are no mutiple universes at all in Umineko and the kakera are just the various fictions created in the real world.
That theory was disrupted at the time she established a precise probability for the existence of a kakera where Lion is accepted. It doesn't make absolutely any sense.
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2011-08-28, 15:05 | Link #23944 |
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The way I saw it, her limitations were "anything that could have conceivably have happened...so long as it ended the same way as Ange's reality dictates." That's why Lion's fragment had to end with death as well. Because they all represent what people could assume happened, for some reason.
I admit I never gave the matter much thought(at all) but that's generally how I interpreted it. Infinite possibilities, but with the same end. How that makes sense in meta(or at all) I have no idea. |
2011-08-28, 15:10 | Link #23945 | |
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However that's my speculation. Feel free to think different. |
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2011-08-28, 15:20 | Link #23946 | |
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Consider this fact, there are only two ways to determine the probability of an event.
One way is to know the variables that influence the outcome of an event. Let's take for example me writing a line on onscripter: rnd 1,10 I will then be able to claim with confidence that there is a 10% probability that the result will be "1". I know nothing about any actual sample, but the knowledge of the principle behind the program allows me to make that prediction. The second method is to examine the outcomes themselves. The ideal way is to check the "whole population". for example if I want to know how many black marbles are inside a pouch, I can count them all and then count the ones that are black. From that I'll be able to calculate an absolutely precise percent. More often, however, since it is impossible or very costly to examine a whole population, you take a sample and then use statistic. depending on how big is your sample you can get a probability very close to the real one. Now the first case would require Bern to know the variables involved in Natsuhi's decision to accept Lion. This is however something that shouldn't be part of Bern's talents. She'd need to be Laplace Demon. The second case is more plausible because we know Bern has the power to browse trough a lot of "kakera" therefore she is in the position to acquire any sample she needs at will. The problem here comes from the absolutely improbable number she pulled out: 2,578,917 Since a "kakera" where Lion is accepted must be an integer, to claim that the mathematical probability of such event to happen is 1 on 2,578,917, she must have at least browsed trough that many kakera. Now am I really supposed to believe that in the "real world" there were THAT many fictions about the Rokkenjima incident? Even supposing that Bern looked trough 2,578,917 kakera and only found 1 with Lion, she'd still prove to be absolutely ignorant about how statistic work by making such claim. Her sample should be several magnitude higher to give any statistical validity to such precise estimation. So I can either conclude that Bern just talked shit there or that she browsed trough something like 30 millions kakera. Quote:
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2011-08-28, 15:21 | Link #23947 | |
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EDIT: The story said there weren't so many forgery authors, right? So I think it's easier to rationalize the 2,578,917 number when you consider each fragment to be an interpretation or theory, rather than a written fiction. This thread itself is evidence that one person alone can invent hundreds of those, right?
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2011-08-28, 15:30 | Link #23948 | |
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But then I have two very big problems here. The first problem is obviously: who the hell made up that theory? There shouldn't be anyone alive capable of coming up with that. Except Tohya of course, but why would tohya make such a "theory"? He has no need to theorize that. Supposing he somehow came to know the whole story during the two dies prior of the explosions, then he'd also knew what truly happened. The second problem is how do you count it? "the theory of Lion being accepted" as a theory is a single theory. It's only natural that it's "one" theory and isn't in any way connected to the probability of Natsuhi accepting Lion. The other way you could count it is by the time someone in discussions brought up the idea. But then you could potentially duplicate it infinitely. Either way it makes very little sense.
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2011-08-28, 15:34 | Link #23949 | |
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However I've no idea how many messages Ryukishi07 might have received during that time so this is mostly a wild guess. |
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2011-08-28, 15:39 | Link #23950 | |||
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Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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Now, if he had intended Author Theory to be the only valid interpretation of Umineko, why would he do that? Quote:
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2011-08-28, 15:47 | Link #23951 | ||
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But then that still means that Bern was talking shit.
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2011-08-28, 15:56 | Link #23952 | ||
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2011-08-28, 16:07 | Link #23953 | ||
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It can still work sometimes, as it does in Higurashi. In Higurashi the moral agent is Rika and we care where Rika "ends up" even though, as Rika herself points out, in a bunch of other realities things didn't work out for her. Of course, there's no reason to believe that the universe must, by necessity, go in favor of a single girl in a single village on a single planet. Indeed, I'm sure quite a lot of moral situations or the lot of certain individuals is actually improved in universes where Rika Furude ends up dead. But that isn't what we're supposed to care about narratively, because Rika is cast as the agent and therefore we're supposed to care about her and her friends, not whether Rika getting into college in 10 years means no admission for a poor but brilliant girl who otherwise would have gone on to cure cancer. We're supposed to care about the judgment Rika makes about what world she would like to end up in and decide whether she made that decision correctly. If we stretch enough, we could condemn any decision she makes, but that isn't the point of what the fiction is supposed to be showing us. With Umineko, however, the problem is considerably stickier. Who is the moral agent?
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2011-08-28, 16:19 | Link #23954 | |
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Though I admit since we're told only at the last moment of 'Toya's existence' is pretty easy to forget about him... |
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2011-08-28, 16:21 | Link #23955 |
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It can only be Touya in a story where Touya's existence has primacy. In other words, if Touya is the moral agent, then R-Prime must be more important than other realities. If R-Prime is more important, there must logically be a reason why that's so.
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2011-08-28, 16:29 | Link #23956 | ||
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The goal for Battler is to solve the mystery around the tragedy on Rokkenjima and prove that there was no witch involved, when in fact it was possibly a something that benefited him in the first place. His whole journey of selfsatisfaction is a tragedy of errors, battling against a foe that actually isn't there. The goal for Ange is to arrive at the truth of the Rokkenjima incident and either avenge or regain the life she lost, not noticing that good things were around her as well. Her journey of selfsatisaction blinded her towards any good parts of her life and so she was battling foes that weren't there. Hey...they're not that different after all I think. The only problem I still admit to have as well is, that we don't arrive at the very same conclusion as those two, because the revelation that befalls them (Battlers finding of the truth and Anges reading of the diary) is not shared with the reader...so we stay behind those two and just have to accept the point that they reached without ever really knowing what the driving force behind their decision truly was. I don't know why it seems to be so important to you that there has to be just one moral agent in a narrative...especially when it is about conflicting morals and ideals in the first place. Quote:
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2011-08-28, 16:30 | Link #23957 | |
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For me Rokkenjima Prime is the world that works as inspiration for the forgeries, and the forgeries are nothing more than fantasies that you must interpretate to figure out the truth of Rokkenjima Prime. It's like asking me if I'm more curious to know the ending of a story or the ending of a fanfic based on that story. However other people might have different beliefs. I guess the upside/downside of Umineko is that although Ryukishi07 likely wanted to push us toward a certain idea he actually let open too many choices. |
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2011-08-28, 16:56 | Link #23959 | |
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2011-08-28, 17:16 | Link #23960 | |
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Tôya is not the moral agent of the story, BATTLER (that is the coherent developing character of Battler in all his forms but not the piece that is reverted to Zero each time...though as the games advance the borders start to weaken) and Ange are. Tôya is just a method through which the story can be continued into the time past 1986 within the narrative. He is just a container for the knowledge around the Rokkejima tragedy, but his character as Tôya has no effective influence on the story. He could as well have turned out as any kind of person passing those stories around. He's more like K.K.Koriander in The Neverending Story by Michael Ende. He has a connection to the book and has knowledge and control about it, but he has no further influence on the plot itself instead of allowing the main character Bastian to enter the story. Also, Bastian is not the center of the narrative for the first half, where Atreyu takes that position also serving as the moral guide through the chapters. He is replaced later and with a new main character the story also receives a slightly different moral trajectory. Also, while in the end everything in Fantastica is about Bastian finding his own path and resolution about his real life problems, the real world is not the center of the narrative structure. More or less Bastian's real life problems and answers to them can be constructed from his reaction towards the trials he has to go through. Therefore both layers of "reality" link and form a structure that cannot be explained by a mere hierachical structure. That's how I understood Umineko as well. |
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