Senkaku/Diaoyu/Tiaoyutai/Pinnacle Islands dispute

[Yu Ominae]

I've seen everything.

And now that ultranationalists have stepped up their game in the Greater Tokyo Area with protests...

[LeoXiao]

Irenicus's post deals with the CPC political infighting better than I could explain it.

Without knowing much on the loyalties of the PLA, I'd guess that they want funding, and funding comes from conflicts, so they are down with stirring up some incidents here and there.

Another issue that Irenicus touched on is that the 18th Party Congress is happening soon (it feels like a movie release to me for some reason ), and thus this is a sensitive time for Chinese politics, particularly in light of the Bo Xilai/Gu Kailai/Wang Lijun cases, which are tied up in a series of scandals. Also linked to this, various (and very sketchy) political figures appointed to their positions in the 90s and early 2000s are anxious to keep their present power, which otherwise would fade away as the changes accompanying the 18th Party Congress come into being. This is one reason for the Party to try to keep the people focused on trivial external matters.

Another reason is that the people themselves are indeed restless. Aside from the political scandals and power struggle, environmental problems, pervasive corruption, and to a smaller extent lack of freedom have caused a lot of people to become disillusioned. This has led to more and more protests every year and increasing criticism of the government. So this is another motivation to distract the populace and try to keep them loyal to the Party.

EDIT: Someone neg-repped me about the Chinese power struggle supposedly having been concluded a few months ago. This is not the case. Just as Wang Lijun was only the tip of the iceberg in the Bo Xilai scandal, Bo's ambitions were set in the context of a deeper, less discernible fracture within the Party. The background and details of the fracture are complex and not well understood but they exist and there is no doubt that they play a very big part in the CCP's political game, especially with the 18th Party Congress drawing near.

EDIT':

Hey, for the government, letting the rioters focus on Japan instead of the CCP's failures is not a bad plan

Not only that, in many cases the police themselves encourage the riots.

Do people here generally agree that Japan has more of a right to claim the islands than China?

Of course it has more claim to the islands, which are part of the same chain that Okinawa is a part of. Also, the treaty ending WW2 gave it to Japan.

[Dragonkid11]

I sort of predicted that China's economy will fail within several decades

Clearly I didn't calculate China "patriotic will" into the equation....

[SeijiSensei]

How factional infighting within the CCP and conflict between the civilians and the military over Chinese foreign policy factor into the dispute:

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/wo...-in-china.html

[kaizerknight01]

Face palm .... This suck there a lot pressing issue that both countries need to address ..... the hardliners and edger beaver hot heads are making things complicated

Hopefully there a couple level headed and wise diplomats on both sides to get this issue resolved

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

I've seen everything.

And now that ultranationalists have stepped up their game in the Greater Tokyo Area with protests...

Source? What does it look like now?

[Yu Ominae]

I saw it in a BBC news broadcast in Vancouver. It's just recent.

They just protest in the Greater Tokyo Area so far.

I also got more news.

Fire spotted at gate of Chinese school in Kobe

Demonstrators in Taipei burn Japanese flag

Here's an analysis on the Senkaku problem with some military aspects in it.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by GenjiChan

That's normal... They sent big surveillance ships on our seas, we say... "please get out"

When we sent small boats to the area... they shout.. "war!!!!"

Now who are the aggressors here?

I would say whoever shoot first.
Of course, if that happen erveyone will clain to have shoot after the other in self-defence...

[NoemiChan]

Originally Posted by ganbaru

I would say whoever shoot first.
Of course, if that happen erveyone will clain to have shoot after the other in self-defence...

That's what I'm saying... China is trying to provoke other nations in declaring war so she could defend herself. The first shooter is always assumed as the aggressor..

[Coldlight]

Originally Posted by Urzu 7

Do people here generally agree that Japan has more of a right to claim the islands than China?

I do. Japan first controlled the islands since what, 1895? Perhaps China knew about it earlier, but I doubt they actually controlled it, much less paid any attention to such uninhabited islets and rocks out in the sea.

By the same token, I'd say South Korea has more of a right to claim the Dokdo/Takeshima/Liancourt Rocks over Japan. And Japan has more of a right to the southernmost Kuril/Chishima islands currently controlled by Russia.

If Russia won't even think of returning the southernmost Kuril islands it seized from Japan in 1945 (Russia has never controlled those 3 islands + rocks before 1945; but Japan did as early as 1855), why should Japan hand over the Senkakus to China?

[willx]

Originally Posted by Coldlight

I do. Japan firstIf Russia won't even think of returning the southernmost Kuril islands it seized from Japan in 1945 (Russia has never controlled those 3 islands + rocks before 1945; but Japan did as early as 1855), why should Japan hand over the Senkakus to China?

Because Japan was defeated by the U.S. and the U.S. now doesn't want to piss off China vs. Russia being one of the "victors" by helping the allies defeat Germany?

EDIT: Ultimately.. Victors write the history books and determine the rules.. Although the age of imperialism was supposed to have ended, there's a lot of lingering anger all across the globe. It's funny if you read any of the Tom Clancy books, in one of them, Japan invades Saipan and uses military and economic warfare to try to sue for peace after their occupation. The premise being, if I recall: "The Western powers finished their empire building.. and then called the game off while they were ahead.."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt_of_Honor

I'm just saying.. I'm not wading into this debate because passions are flaring, so I'm just going to be the wry cynical guy sitting in the corner ..

[Jaden]

http://www.esl-world.net/masters/season7/news/203994/

Thank you China for being so damn lame over a couple soddy islands. I wouldn't even dare watch anime in there without fear of getting mobbed.

Meanwhile politicians do nothing except fan the flames. Can't they settle it like men, with a mahjong match?

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by Jaden

Meanwhile politicians do nothing except fan the flames.

Not exactly true, for now.

China clamps down on anti-Japan protests

Beijing (Sept 19, Wed): China moved quickly today to snuff out anti-Japan protests after days of angry demonstrations over a territorial dispute forced Japanese businesses to shut their doors and threatened an economic backlash.

Relations between Asia's two biggest economies have faltered badly, hitting their lowest point in decades yesterday when China marked the highly charged anniversary of Japan's 1931 occupation of its giant neighbour.

Tension had run high on land and at sea, with four days of major protests in cities across China and Japanese and Chinese boats stalking each other in waters around a group of East China Sea islands, known by Japan as the Senkaku and by China as the Diaoyu.

"It seems the protests in front of our embassy have subsided," the Japanese embassy in Beijing, the focal point of protests, said in an e-mail message to Japanese citizens.

Outside the embassy, police moved on a lone protester who had been shouting "Defeat small Japan" early today.

Japanese businesses shut hundreds of stores and factories across China, some sending workers back to Japan in fear the protests would get out of hand. Japan's Beijing embassy had been under siege by protesters throwing water bottles, waving Chinese flags and chanting slogans evoking Japan's occupation.

To prevent a repeat of those protests, large numbers of riot police were deployed around the embassy and Beijing's subway operator closed the station nearest to the Japanese mission.

REUTERS

It's a familiar page from a familiar playbook. Beijing knows very well that it is playing with fire whenever it tacitly allows such nationalistic protests to run wild — it won't not take much, after all, for protesters to suddenly realise that since they're already out in force, they might as well attack their corrupt and oppressive government too.

[Kyuu]

What really bothers me about this whole thing is: Taiwan.

It seems: they're so supportive of mainland China, such that the island might as well rejoin the mainland.

[SeijiSensei]

Panetta Says US "Rebalance" to Asia not Intended to Contain China

“Our rebalance to the Asia-Pacific region is not an attempt to contain China,” Mr. Panetta said Wednesday in a speech to People’s Liberation Army officers and cadets. “It is an attempt to engage China and expand its role in the Pacific.”

Seems to me, Leon, that the Chinese are already trying to expand their role in the Pacific. Perhaps you can explain to me how moving forces from Okinawa to Guam and Australia is designed to "engage China." I bet the Chinese are just thrilled to hear we are parking a few ships in Singapore and expanding joint exercises with the Philippines as well.

And, Secretary Panetta, here is a nice dish for you take home as a souvenier. Maybe Mrs. Panetta can use it to serve bing.

Images

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Originally Posted by Kyuu

What really bothers me about this whole thing is: Taiwan.
It seems: they're so supportive of mainland China, such that the island might as well rejoin the mainland.

Are you suggesting they should align themselves with Japan instead? Isn't there already a substantial faction in Taiwanese politics who support reintegration with the PRC? I can see the US coming to the aid of Japan or even the Philippines in the event of a military conflict with the PRC, but Taiwan? The days of Quemoy and Matsu are far behind us now. Last years sale of F-16s to Taiwan seems more symbolic than militarily significant. The notion that the Kuomingtang are now the party that supports closer ties with the mainland is remarkable to someone like me who remembers the days of Chiang Kai-shek and his lovely, if rather terrifying, wife. (I never heard the story in that article about her affair with Wendell Wilkie before. Their go-between, Gardner Cowles, later wrote that when he told Madame Chiang she would not be returning to the US with Willkie after all, "She reached up and scratched her long fingernails down both my cheeks so deeply that I had marks for about a week.” Ouch!)

[kyp275]

Originally Posted by Kyuu

What really bothers me about this whole thing is: Taiwan.

It seems: they're so supportive of mainland China, such that the island might as well rejoin the mainland.

lolwhut? says who?

as far as Senkaku/Diaoyu goes, Taiwan also claim the islands for itself, but that's hardly the same thing as claiming the islands belong to PRC.

Try to run for office in Taiwan on a platform of joining the mainland, and see how many seconds you'll last before you get lambasted into the ground.

[Urzu 7]

Originally Posted by kyp275

lolwhut? says who?

as far as Senkaku/Diaoyu goes, Taiwan also claim the islands for itself, but that's hardly the same thing as claiming the islands belong to PRC.

Try to run for office in Taiwan on a platform of joining the mainland, and see how many seconds you'll last before you get lambasted into the ground.

Someone in this thread said that you actually have a significant amount of people in Taiwan that want to be part of the PRC. They said something about Taiwan having a polarized populace on the issue.

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by Urzu 7

Someone in this thread said that you actually have a significant amount of people in Taiwan that want to be part of the PRC. They said something about Taiwan having a polarized populace on the issue.

GenjiChan mentioned it yesterday if I am not mistaken. Anyway, it has been the same feeling for me since the last few years: there is an increasing number of Taiwanese people who are willing to throw themselves into the arms of the PRC and it created quite some bipolarity.

What in the world is Panetta useful for in making this trip anyway? He looks like a clueless sitting duck to me, nothing less. I was hoping for someone with more authority in the US government doing the trip.

[Sumeragi]

There's a difference between being pro-unification and wanting to submit to PRC. Almost all pro-unification people base it on PRC changing and thus unification on equal grounds, rather than Taiwan being absorbed into PRC.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

There's a difference between being pro-unification and wanting to submit to PRC. Almost all pro-unification people base it on PRC changing and thus unification on equal grounds, rather than Taiwan being absorbed into PRC.

Well that is only if the PRC stop worshipping the hairy red man and go back to the sunny boy, then Taiwan will go back.

Otherwise, we still will have many a detente in the years to come between both of them.