[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Serpit]

Oh, Battler, you're killing me!

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by maximilianjenus

As put by bern and lambda, beatrice can't win, the only reason she could not win (at least for me) is because witches do not exist in rokkenjima. so the only thing a person could win by having the fight with battler is discovering the real culprit.

But, the reason she supposedly can't win is because if she ever gains an advantage, Lambda will turn on her and support Battler. Lambda also has some reason to think that she can keep the game going indefinitely, even though the red and blue truth rules seem to overwhelmingly favor Battler. I think the only way she can make that claim is if there is actually some supernatural element on the board, such as Beatrice exists as a supernatural entity on the island who does not count against the 17-human limit.

Battler could technically propose this and still win by showing that Beatrice didn't commit any of the murders. However, he's been encouraged by both Lambda and Bernkastel to take the position that there is no magic on the board at all, and to treat Beatrice as an absolute enemy, so he's unlikely to ever think of that. Moreover, based on the Ep. 4 witches' tea party, Bernkastel doesn't have perfect knowledge of the board like Lambda does, so it's possible that she herself believes there is a pure anti-fantasy solution. Beatrice can't state the supernatural element in red either because of the stalemate rules, so she has no way of conveying that information to Battler even if she wants to.

[Jan-Poo]

I wonder if that's true. It could be a secret card that Beatrice is unwilling to use right now and that stalemate thing is merely an excuse.

We need to consider this. Before Ep4 if anything supernatural would have been stated in red Battler would have just said that the red truth is a lie and refuse to believe in it.

However now Battler has a deeper meaning of the red truth. He knows how it works and he knows that what is false can't be said. He's also now used to accept the red truth as an absolute fact. He himself said that you can't trust anything but the red truth, in red.

Now Battler has been cooked up to the right point. If Beatrice tells him
I exist and I can use magic

What Battler would do? It could be a very hard blow on him, untill he realize that "magic" could be a metaphor. He fell for such tricks many times already.

[Nih]

Shouldn't we consider stalemate the same as draw? Because I was under the impression that Battler's game with Beatrice was under the rules of Armageddon. Meaning if there's a draw, 34 wins.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Now Battler has been cooked up to the right point. If Beatrice tells him
I exist and I can use magic

What Battler would do? It could be a very hard blow on him, untill he realize that "magic" could be a metaphor. He fell for such tricks many times already.

That might turn out to be a very beneficial statement in the long run. Even in wild anti-mystery scenes, Beatrice has been consistent about the idea that there are rules to how she can behave, even if she hasn't been consistent about what those rules actually are. Battler might be able to make a lot of progress quickly by attacking her location and capabilities with blue truth.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Nih

Shouldn't we consider stalemate the same as draw? Because I was under the impression that Battler's game with Beatrice was under the rules of Armageddon. Meaning if there's a draw, 34 wins.

as long as the stalemate doesn't prevent any further game yes. Otherwise Bern would just say: ok it's a draw see you again.

for 34 to "win" the game must not end in any way draw included.

[Nih]

Well, yea that's about my thoughts as well, except I was interpreting it more symbolically, like Lambda is after the eternal tie, so she eternally wins

I'm just saying that I'm not sure if Beato could "force" a draw with red, since that would be akin to Battler stating "witches don't exist" in red, imo.

[Squirrellord]

I don't think Metaphors work. I think what is said in Red is the actual LITERAL truth. However, it's not a collective, all encompassing truth. There are two worlds vying for control, the Anti-Fantasy and the Anti-Mystery. In the Anti-Fantasy world, a human is the culprit, and the red truth reflects that. In the Anti-Mystery, the Witch is the culprit, and the red truth reflects that.
Basically, when Beatrice says anything about herself in red, she's only talking about the Anti-Mystery world. For example, in episode 2, she says The letter I gave Maria. This doesn't work in the real world, because Beatrice does not exist there (if you'd like to know, she said Warawa, which is Beatrice's favored way of addressing herself). It's possible then that this is a lie in red... the letter BEATRICE gave her is one way, but the letter in anti-fantasy that was given to her might be different ;D

But point is, if Beatrice said I exist, I can do magic, then that only applies to the Fantasy world.
Also, when she says You are incompetent!... that's quite true! Battler had no idea what he was doing, and couldn't fight toe to toe with the witch. Red has never been said to be an absolute unchanging truth. He was incompetent then, but he might be competent now. The future rewrites the past and all~

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Squirrellord

I don't think Metaphors work. I think what is said in Red is the actual LITERAL truth. However, it's not a collective, all encompassing truth. There are two worlds vying for control, the Anti-Fantasy and the Anti-Mystery. In the Anti-Fantasy world, a human is the culprit, and the red truth reflects that. In the Anti-Mystery, the Witch is the culprit, and the red truth reflects that.
Basically, when Beatrice says anything about herself in red, she's only talking about the Anti-Mystery world.

Wouldn't this violate the integrity of the red though? If red can apply to Anti-Mystery without applying to Anti-Fantasy, then Beato can throw out a bunch of bogus statements to support her version of events, and Battler has no way of distinguishing these from Anti-Mystery truth. The fundamental assumption underlying the red text rule is that it's a limited observation of the "reality" that Battler and Beatrice are both trying to explain. It has to constrain both Battler's AND Beatrice's theories or you can't reason with it. Your example of "The letter I gave Maria" is explainable under Anti-Mystery by the idea that meta-Beatrice represents several people on the game board. Even if there isn't a real Beatrice, you could say that at that moment, Rosa or Natsuhi or whoever is acting as Beatrice.

Also, we've been given this idea that there's a dichotomy between pure Anti-Fantasy and pure Anti-Mystery, but it's not like there's only two possible theories. It just seems that way because those are the positions that Battler and Beatrice have officially staked out. Nothing is stopping Battler from adjusting to a middle ground position that permits supernatural elements so long as he can still achieve his goal of proving that a witch didn't commit the murders. Beatrice has actually been shifting between "I committed all the murders" and variations of "Some of the murders were mundane, but I did this one" even within the same game.

[k//eternal]

I always assumed that in the very end, the "final solution" would be partly supernatural, both to prevent Beato from dying forever and someone important in the family from committing the crimes.

Also that red text would apply to both anti-fantasy and anti-mystery, one way or another.

[Ithekro]

It would be interesting if the idea isn't to disprove the existance of the witches, but to prove they didn't commit the crimes. These could be mutually exclusive. The witches could exist and yet not have had anything to do with the murders.

Sort of like in a way that Higurashi provides the source of the mystery eventually, disproving that the supernatural had anything to do with the incidents, but not disproving the existance of the supernatural. (Hanyuu and the timeloops for example).

Just a thought.

[Squirrellord]

@LyricalAura
I guess I didn't explain what I meant well enough.
I didn't mean that Beatrice would say a vague truth which only applied to her truth, just because she wants it to. I meant a truth which, in some way or another, proves the existence of magic. Beatrice talking specifically about herself in red, her in the Golden Land with Ange in part 4, etc. It's just if you apply red to the Meta World truths, about Witches and Magic, then the whole game falls apart instantly, right?
I don't think Beatrice can say "I" when talking about someone else, since that would mean that person is herself. She could have just said "The letter that Maria received" or something along those lines, but she actually said "I"

I'm not saying I'm right, it could just be a fluke, but it's just something to think about

[Nih]

I think it's possible

[Jan-Poo]

I'm not sure I understand what are you trying to say squirrellord °°;

Are you saying that Beatrice can use red truths that apply to the meta-world? In that case she could use that to trick Battler, making him believe that those truths actually apply to the real world.

Anyway I'm still of the opinion that the concept of "truth" is meaningless if it isn't accepted that it's an absolute truth. If you start talking about "point of views" then any truth can become false just by changing perspective.

[k//eternal]

Originally Posted by Squirrellord

She could have just said "The letter that Maria received" or something along those lines, but she actually said "I"

I'm not saying I'm right, it could just be a fluke, but it's just something to think about

I'd consider it similar to the appearance of Suit-Beato on the board. There's a "Beatrice" on there somewhere, one way or another.

Similarly, the red statements about what her magic can/can't do probably apply to whatever the anti-fantasy equivalent is, as well (i.e., however the magic tricks like fixing the marshmallow were done).

[Squirrellord]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Are you saying that Beatrice can use red truths that apply to the meta-world? In that case she could use that to trick Battler, making him believe that those truths actually apply to the real world.

Exactly.
Like, let's say that she wants to talk about Hideyoshi and Eva's murders. If she said "She was killed by Beelzebub being driven into her head!" in Red, I don't think we could take something like that as fact. Since Beelzebub doesn't exist. But "She was killed by having a stake driven into her head!", then that's a real world truth.

[Jan-Poo]

Well in that case Belzeebub could simply be the name of the stake, I mean the real phsyical object.

I wonder if we will end up seeing Battler coming to such a conclusion. Like when he saw that magic battle between Virgilia nd Beato, he explained it with the schroedinger cat box.

Is he going to do the same with the red truths? Will he says that two different truths can exist at the same time? That would be a real mindfuck since the red truth so far was compared to the act of opening he box.

[Avisch]

Ok I got a theory. Sorry if it overlaps with someone else's. Im still reading all the pages of this thread

Spoiler for Ep4 Theory:

One of the survivors of the 1st twilight is the culprit, but only including: Krauss, Kyrie, Kanon, and Shannon.

Why them? They are all present within the "room supposedly in Kuwadorian"

After the the 1st twilight. S/he moves everyone to the room (it takes atleast ten minutes to do this, so s/he uses some sort of device).

S/he wakes up with everyone and pretends to be a victim and as such controls everything to lead to everyone's death.

This doesn't solve Gohda's and Kumasawa's death.

[Marion]

That theory can actually be supported as far as transportation method goes with my theory:

Originally Posted by Marion

An idea just got in my head: what if there was never a meeting that Kinzo attended to begin with?

The idea is that Kinzo came down to the discussion between the parents and then six people died, two escaped and five were captured. But the entire thing is odd considering the following elements.

Spoiler for EP 4:

1) Kinzo's presence, considering his status.
2) Magical elements, such as the Siestas, Ronove, Gaap and Virgilia
3) The time it took to transport the 5 hostages to the Kuwadorian.

Considering these elements the entire scene can easily be considered a scene that Beatrice manipulated for the viewer.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Squirrellord

Exactly.
Like, let's say that she wants to talk about Hideyoshi and Eva's murders. If she said "She was killed by Beelzebub being driven into her head!" in Red, I don't think we could take something like that as fact. Since Beelzebub doesn't exist. But "She was killed by having a stake driven into her head!", then that's a real world truth.

Rather than not being able to accept it as fact, I think we would have no choice but to accept it as fact, and rework our theories accordingly. That might mean looking for a loophole like "The name Beelzebub refers to a stake", but in the worst case we might have to accept it literally and move on. We shouldn't forget that Battler has staked out an untenable position before (no pun intended). The assertion that "there's no such thing as magic" may not be any more valid than "none of the people I know could be murderers" was.