2009-06-27, 16:03 | Link #1941 | |
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I'm kind of only arguing the possibility of the sums being different in each box to cover all the angles, but your counterarguments don't seem that compelling to me. I can't see what you mean about it being ineffective at all. It seems an excellent way of passing on the key and directions without letting anyone know who sent it. As for the question of why they should provide compensation if they were planning on killing Nanjo as well, I'll quote Beato. "I keep my promises." Whether the personality of the letter-sender has any relation to Beato's or not, it's possible they simply feel obliged to honour a promise. For the case that it was meant to implicate Nanjo, your problem with it was that the letter-writer should have done something to further implicate Nanjo afterwards. This was episode 3, where Eva survived. It's the episode that we know something went wrong for the letter-writer, so they likely weren't around afterwards, even if they usually are. If Nanjo's son hadn't been too honest even that wouldn't have been needed. If he had taken his sick daughter to expensive medical treatments immediately after he found the money, as might reasonably be expected, the police would surely have taken an interest in where he was getting the money. Mostly I'm just arguing this because assuming there's 2 billion in the vault cuts the suspect list dramatically, with little reason as far as I can see. 2 billion should be enough to solve any financial worries of all four siblings put together. If there's a smaller sum, it's more plausible to consider one of them being responsible. |
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2009-06-27, 16:16 | Link #1942 | |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
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1.) Natsuhi, in her head-ache induced state of mind and desperately craving for acknowledgement, imagined the whole scene in her head. 2.) Part of the discussion at least wasn't how we heard it. The fact alone that she supposedly had a talk with Kinzo, who was already dead and wouldn't be mistaken for anyone else, yet still calls him "father", implies that. 3.) Natsuhi may have known about Krauss' dual personality, and played along with it to not upset his state of mind. 4.) About the paper, there's the simple possibility Eva lied. We know that side of her from Episode 3 at least. 5.) Alternatively, Battler's theory of Kinzo hiding under the bed might be true as well. This time, I assume Krauss IS aware of his 2 personas. While he might show his KInzo-side to those who know of it (let's just say, for the sake of the example, that this includes Nanjo, Genji, Natsuhi, Kanon and shannon), he will obviously hide it from others, most importantly his siblings. For that reason, he had to avoid being seen by anybody else, in this case Eva, when she came to see "Kinzo" in his study. |
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2009-06-27, 17:22 | Link #1944 |
Umineko and Mabinogi fan~
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Florida
Age: 42
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Technically, Eva could of dropped the paper on the ground on purpose so that later she could. "IT WAS IN THE DOOR! I SWEAR!!!"
Actually, that's what I always figured. Because otherwise, it doesn't really make much sense for Eva to put the receipt in the door in the first place*.... Unless she was aware beforehand that something was going to happen.... *Yeah, Eva "explains" it as a "joke." But c'mon! |
2009-06-27, 19:11 | Link #1945 | |||
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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I agree that it is naive to rely on this inductive method, but usually there's no need to imagine that things are different than what they appear if there's no reason to think so. Of course you are perfectly legitimated to think they might be all different, but why? Even so 2 billion or less that's not really the matter. Now if you tell me that Nanjo's box is the only safe with money I'll call it bullshit. I can accept that that might be the most rich prize there, but the only one is simply insane. So it's still a big deal of money that we are talking about, and if I accept the "I keep my promise" theory I'd still reach the same conclusion: Beatrice is not driven by greed. There's no such a thing as a greed person capable to kill a whole family for money who would keep a promise to the dead. Your theory that Nanjo would have been caught if he used the money is far-fetched. You are forgetting the fact that the whole thing was labeled as an "unfortunate incident", it wasn't considered a crime at all. No one was prosecuted, the case was closed. Also Beatrice doesn't have any reason to frame Nanjo, else why didn't she write the stories in the bottle placing Nanjo as the culprit? It doesn't make sense to me. Quote:
It then all happened as Eva predicted. She forced Natsuhi to let her see Kinzo, and Kinzo wasn't there. Then Natsuhi showed to be suprised of such disappearance, just as Eva predicted. That's the very point of the piece of paper. Once they got back to everyone Eva explained the situation. She thought that with that she would prove that Natsuhi was behind the murders, but Battler with his twisted logic nullified her accusations.
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2009-06-27, 20:52 | Link #1946 |
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A minor issue: Natsuhi could have "spoken with Kinzo" in his study, while he was dead and not present in the room, through a writing, recording, or any number of other things. She could have found a note, a will, a tape player, something along those lines. She could have been remembering a scene that really did happen some time before. She could have been delusional and imagining Kinzo saying things to her she always wanted to hear from him. It could just be symbolic of her resolve to take charge of the situation. Nobody needs to have been in there with her, and honestly it makes a lot more sense if no one was.
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2009-06-27, 21:50 | Link #1947 | |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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Spoiler for Pondering Message Bottles:
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2009-06-27, 21:59 | Link #1948 | |
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Though this makes Genji an accomplice, considering he went into the room after Krauss and Nanjo left. Unless we're getting some weird time trickery here, and this is actually a scene from LAST year |
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2009-06-28, 00:32 | Link #1949 |
do you know ベアトリーチェ様?
Join Date: Dec 2003
Age: 35
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If Nanjo had known about Kinzo's Kuwadorian trips (since he evidently knew about the place and the Kuwadorian harbor), then it's possible that Kinzo had given him instructions along the lines of "When I go to Kuwadorian, tell people we were playing chess."
Nanjo may have assumed that Kinzo had gone there again, not realizing that he'd actually died. |
2009-06-28, 07:15 | Link #1951 | ||
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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@Foobar that's an interesting theory however unless you are calling for another "names are not exclusive" thing your theory cannot stand because Battler is Kinzo's grandson . Of course that "names are not exclusive" thing could completely fuck up the 60% of red truths we know.
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2009-06-28, 07:24 | Link #1952 | ||
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If it was to Beatrice's disadvantage to in any way imply Nanjo or anyone else was involved, sending the money to their relatives as some kind of gift would equally work against her if it was discovered, so I don't think that argument really works. What if Ange or any of them had thought to show their letter to the police, thinking it might have led to the capture of the person who killed their family? How likely is it that all the other people who got the letters would have hidden them if specifically asked if they got a similar letter? |
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2009-06-28, 07:36 | Link #1953 | |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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I cannot deny the possibility that the "unfortunate incident" only applies to ep3, but I find it unlikely. The only thing that went wrong imho is that Eva found the kuwadorian. But that's my personal opinion.
However in the case of Nanjo's son I'll have to ask you to quote where it is said that he's been questioned by the police, because I can't find it. What I can find is: Quote:
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2009-06-28, 07:55 | Link #1954 |
The unlucky one
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Hiding
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I just reread a huge part of Ep1 and also lookes inside the manga version (untranslated) ... and I've gotta say Jan-Poo's theory that Jessica's asthma fits are psychological conditioned isn't that icongruous. In the Sound Novel it says that her fits got a lot worse a few years ago. I bet the pressure as the future heir, not being able to meet the expectations of her family and Kinzo must have increased a lot. Her loneliness that she must have felt since she was a child (because she was always different from the other children, and that she lives on an island) could have increased after Battler left the family. And I think we should even add the rejection she got from Kanon, a girl her age is really sensible about such things and it must have hurt her a lot.
Also Jessica said that she had "a" talk witch "Shannon-san" about George. First...why the heck does she say Shannon-san all of sudden. Second, this seems like foreshadowing for Ep 2. I remember that some people (me included) that Jessica might have dressed up as Beato and tricked Shannon and Kanon. Seems really ridiculous, it could be a lot easier. Jessica and Shannon just talked to each other, like they always did and Jessica said some indelicate things, because we all now that she has a bad temper and is impatient, and Kanon cut through the discussion. We were shown a totally altered version of it, with loads of "magic", the same goes for the latter scenes with Beato, Shannon etc. Also don't we all forget a person?! Yes, I'm talking about unnamed Servant! Yup! The servant who had an unfortunate accident after speaking ill of Beatrice and had to quit because of the injury. Come on! You guys don't believe that this was a coincidence? I kinda believe someone "gently" shoved him down the stairs. Maybe it was Kinzo himself, or how about the servants? and am I the only person that thinks this "quit" is so similar to "transferred" Also, was there a red truth denying the suicide of either Hideyoshi or Eva in Ep 1? Oh and I have a question. I looked inside the Ep2 Manga and...was there really a talk between Kumasawa and Jessica before the start of the conference in front of the portrait. And what's up with that discussion of Natsuhi and Krauss after the Rosa&Maria scene. I can't remember those.
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2009-06-28, 08:23 | Link #1955 | |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
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-The two were killed by other people -It is not the case that after the creation of the closed room, one committed suicide after committing murder! -The one who carried out the murders did so in the same room as the victims! -No method exists for the person who carried out murder to do so from outside the room!
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2009-06-28, 08:30 | Link #1956 |
The unlucky one
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Hiding
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Hm~ gosh this kinda sucks~ I don't think that there is a method do destroy the chain go in, committ the murders, go out and then make a new chain. (I think someone said that back then in the Ep 2 thread or so).
So... did that chain really exist? Battler never saw it and if it was already cut. So there was no closed room to begin with and the closed rooms is just a big fat lie from the servants. I mean it like this: -Eva and Hideyoshi lock up (creation of closed room) -Culprit comes, cuts the chain and kills them, culprit leaves -Servants (Genji and Kanon at first) come and create the lie of the closed room Culprit and Servants don't necessarily need to be the same person(s)
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2009-06-28, 08:46 | Link #1957 |
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Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Even better: the servants entered the room with an excuse, they killed Eva and Hideyoshi without them realizing the danger, then they put on the chain and cut it from inside.
This way they recreated the closed room scenario. Of course this is just a possibility. While Hideyoshi could have been surprised while he was under the shower, I find it hard to believe Eva would be on the bed when she was killed. She might have been moved after her death, or maybe she was asleep and the servants entered from outside as you say, but I think it's strange she didn't awake after they opened the door and cut the chain. In that case she would have screamed And there's still the chance that the culprit was still inside the room when everyone arrived.
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2009-06-28, 09:00 | Link #1958 | |
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Second, it's pretty clear that, semantically, Beatrice is referring to the individuals in the main cast when she uses their names in red. Saying Maria is dead! would be pointless if she could use that to mean "any person who has ever been named Maria." She's clearly using it to describe Ushiromiya Maria. Can you prove that? No. But I think it's safe to assume that when Beatrice speaks of things in red to describe the game board, she mostly confines it to people and events on or related to the Rokkenjima incident of the 4th-5th. Given that, let me ask you something: If somebody posed as Kinzo ages ago, grew his fortune, fathered his children, and engaged in all his speculations and hobbies, isn't he "Ushiromiya Kinzo" regardless of who he was previously? It's utterly pointless to quibble over that sort of thing. If the man everyone acknowledged as Kinzo their entire lives wasn't "really" Kinzo, as far as everyone else is concerned he actually was. Same thing with Kanon (except nobody can take his name but him). If someone else is Kanon, or whatever, that person is the "Kanon" we know, because there isn't any other Kanon we know. The same would apply to the game; it would be completely cheap to do otherwise. |
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2009-06-28, 09:02 | Link #1959 |
The unlucky one
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: Hiding
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Actually it could have been everyone, since there is a really big gap between them locking up and being found.
So I don't think this closed room is that difficult. Actually none of the closed rooms are as closed as they seem to be. Also, i kinda start to think that the servants might remember everything. just a hunch. (In Ep 1 they talked like the murders happened often and it could have hit everyone) But this is way to anti-mystery xDD About the chapel murders in EP 2. Could it be that Rosa opened the letter before she did in front of Battler, just to check whats in it, cause she was worried what was inside? And then put it back without using it? After that someone sneaked in got the key and but it back.
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2009-06-28, 09:13 | Link #1960 |
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Join Date: Apr 2009
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Even Anti-Mystery can stomach something like this. It's a fact that different worlds exist, and even though the murders were most likely done by human means, the game is still palyed by the witches. Remember, Higurashi did the same thing - A human culprit is responsible, but a supernatural entity is involved, and Rika also remembered the previous worlds. Not to mention that in Episode 4 of Umineko, Kanon and Shannon basically outright state that they remember the different games. It's possible that this dialogue didn't happen either of course, but I wouldn't bank on it.
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