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Old 2009-06-27, 16:03   Link #1941
Valentine
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I agree that it's not set in stone, but I see not even a circumstantial proof or logical argument (beside: "it isn't outside the realm of the plausible possibilities") to think otherwise.
Got to say I'm seeing it the other way around, at least as regards the extra safe deposit boxes. All we actually know about the twenty safe deposit boxes is that they belong to the same account. Basically, that one account has retained twenty safe deposit boxes which can be opened if you have the PIN number, the card (of which more than one exist) and one of the individual keys to the boxes. Most people seem to assume that the boxes either belong to the Ushiromiya or Sumadera families, whether some part of the Ushiromiya fortune has been inherited by an unknown person or not. For either family, it just seems to me that they would have retained a number of boxes as a matter of course. I simply can't see how one box having 100 million in it, and two other boxes being used in similar letters, but remaining unopened, implies it's likely that they're all being used to pay relatives of the deceased, and that they should all contain the same amount of money.

I'm kind of only arguing the possibility of the sums being different in each box to cover all the angles, but your counterarguments don't seem that compelling to me. I can't see what you mean about it being ineffective at all. It seems an excellent way of passing on the key and directions without letting anyone know who sent it. As for the question of why they should provide compensation if they were planning on killing Nanjo as well, I'll quote Beato. "I keep my promises." Whether the personality of the letter-sender has any relation to Beato's or not, it's possible they simply feel obliged to honour a promise. For the case that it was meant to implicate Nanjo, your problem with it was that the letter-writer should have done something to further implicate Nanjo afterwards. This was episode 3, where Eva survived. It's the episode that we know something went wrong for the letter-writer, so they likely weren't around afterwards, even if they usually are. If Nanjo's son hadn't been too honest even that wouldn't have been needed. If he had taken his sick daughter to expensive medical treatments immediately after he found the money, as might reasonably be expected, the police would surely have taken an interest in where he was getting the money.

Mostly I'm just arguing this because assuming there's 2 billion in the vault cuts the suspect list dramatically, with little reason as far as I can see. 2 billion should be enough to solve any financial worries of all four siblings put together. If there's a smaller sum, it's more plausible to consider one of them being responsible.
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Old 2009-06-27, 16:16   Link #1942
Serpit
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
I've thought it myself, but I don't go as far as to explain everything with that.

For example the fact nobody was inside Kinzo's room can solve the problem of Eva's piece of paper. If you say that Krauss was inside you'd need to find an explanation. Also whether you think there was no one inside the room or Krauss was there, that discussion Natsuhi has with "Kinzo" is too strange to be considered normal. Even if Natsuhi recognizes Krauss as the next "Kinzo" why is she calling him father? You might answer that Natsuhi is unaware of that and mistook him for the real Kinzo but: no one would mistake Kinzo by sight and there's really no logical reason to think this can apply only to the fourth game.

In other words the "Krauss is Kinzo" theory is possible but I don't think you can justify all the "Kinzo scenes" with that alone.
I'm aware it's far from a fool-proof explanation for all scenes. Regarding the problem of Natsuhi talking to "Kinzo" and Eva's piece of paper, I'm just gonna be like Battler and throw a plethora of theories around =P

1.) Natsuhi, in her head-ache induced state of mind and desperately craving for acknowledgement, imagined the whole scene in her head.

2.) Part of the discussion at least wasn't how we heard it. The fact alone that she supposedly had a talk with Kinzo, who was already dead and wouldn't be mistaken for anyone else, yet still calls him "father", implies that.

3.) Natsuhi may have known about Krauss' dual personality, and played along with it to not upset his state of mind.

4.) About the paper, there's the simple possibility Eva lied. We know that side of her from Episode 3 at least.

5.) Alternatively, Battler's theory of Kinzo hiding under the bed might be true as well. This time, I assume Krauss IS aware of his 2 personas. While he might show his KInzo-side to those who know of it (let's just say, for the sake of the example, that this includes Nanjo, Genji, Natsuhi, Kanon and shannon), he will obviously hide it from others, most importantly his siblings. For that reason, he had to avoid being seen by anybody else, in this case Eva, when she came to see "Kinzo" in his study.
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Old 2009-06-27, 16:33   Link #1943
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As far as the receipt goes Eva asked Natsuhi beforehand if she threw something out after they went to get Kinzo. Natsuhi confirms this and Eva says that was the receipt.
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Old 2009-06-27, 17:22   Link #1944
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Technically, Eva could of dropped the paper on the ground on purpose so that later she could. "IT WAS IN THE DOOR! I SWEAR!!!"
Actually, that's what I always figured. Because otherwise, it doesn't really make much sense for Eva to put the receipt in the door in the first place*.... Unless she was aware beforehand that something was going to happen....

*Yeah, Eva "explains" it as a "joke." But c'mon!
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Old 2009-06-27, 19:11   Link #1945
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Originally Posted by Squirrellord View Post
I've mentioned this before, but that's simply taking a fact for granted. We *think* he knows, specifically because of the line in part one, where he says he was just playing Chess with Kinzo in the study. However, that could be a baldfaced lie, and Nanjo himself doesn't know where Kinzo is, or he believes he's in Kuwadorian.
Theory:
If Kinzo died within a day or two of October 4th, Genji and Nanjo may not know. Kinzo was prone to disappearing to Kuwadorian to visit Beatrice when she was alive, but there's no guarantee that he stopped going there even after she fell. It is possible that Genji and Nanjo were both told that, if Kinzo is not in his study, that he is at Kuwadorian, and is not to be disturbed. To keep Krauss and the rest from finding out, they are to say that they had just recently been with him in the Study, and that he is still there and in a foul mood. Regardless of all situations then, Nanjo will say he has been with Kinzo.

We only want to believe that Kinzo died a long time before, say more than a year, because
1. He stopped showing up at the conferencess
2. He stopped taking an audience with anyone but Genji or Nanjo
3. The corpse was burned to hide time of death
4. The "smell" of Kinzo's absinthe may be Embalming fluid.

But all of those could just be red herrings into making us thing there's a deep conspiracy than there actually is.
This is an interesting theory however it still doesn't explain the scene we have seen. I mean if I accept your theory, then I accept the fact Nanjo knows Kinzo disappeared. In that case the scene where both Nanjo and Krauss are seen talking to Kinzo from outside the door still doesn't have any explanation. In that scene there's no one except Krauss and Nanjo, so who are they trying to trick?


Quote:
Originally Posted by Valentine View Post
Got to say I'm seeing it the other way around, at least as regards the extra safe deposit boxes. All we actually know about the twenty safe deposit boxes is that they belong to the same account. Basically, that one account has retained twenty safe deposit boxes which can be opened if you have the PIN number, the card (of which more than one exist) and one of the individual keys to the boxes. Most people seem to assume that the boxes either belong to the Ushiromiya or Sumadera families, whether some part of the Ushiromiya fortune has been inherited by an unknown person or not. For either family, it just seems to me that they would have retained a number of boxes as a matter of course. I simply can't see how one box having 100 million in it, and two other boxes being used in similar letters, but remaining unopened, implies it's likely that they're all being used to pay relatives of the deceased, and that they should all contain the same amount of money.

I'm kind of only arguing the possibility of the sums being different in each box to cover all the angles, but your counterarguments don't seem that compelling to me. I can't see what you mean about it being ineffective at all. It seems an excellent way of passing on the key and directions without letting anyone know who sent it. As for the question of why they should provide compensation if they were planning on killing Nanjo as well, I'll quote Beato. "I keep my promises." Whether the personality of the letter-sender has any relation to Beato's or not, it's possible they simply feel obliged to honour a promise. For the case that it was meant to implicate Nanjo, your problem with it was that the letter-writer should have done something to further implicate Nanjo afterwards. This was episode 3, where Eva survived. It's the episode that we know something went wrong for the letter-writer, so they likely weren't around afterwards, even if they usually are. If Nanjo's son hadn't been too honest even that wouldn't have been needed. If he had taken his sick daughter to expensive medical treatments immediately after he found the money, as might reasonably be expected, the police would surely have taken an interest in where he was getting the money.

Mostly I'm just arguing this because assuming there's 2 billion in the vault cuts the suspect list dramatically, with little reason as far as I can see. 2 billion should be enough to solve any financial worries of all four siblings put together. If there's a smaller sum, it's more plausible to consider one of them being responsible.
The reason I don't see why the different safes should be different is that we have proof that the in all the three cases everything that we are told of is exactly the same (same envelopes, same way to delay their arrival, same contents, same PIN, same bank). It is as if you open a chocolate box of a brand you've never seen, all the chocolates are the same, same shape same color and all. You take one and you learn that it is dark chocolate. Everyone would assume that all the others are exactly the same. Why would you suspect one of them is actually white chocolate? In that case shouldn't the shape and color be different? Usually that's how it goes.
I agree that it is naive to rely on this inductive method, but usually there's no need to imagine that things are different than what they appear if there's no reason to think so. Of course you are perfectly legitimated to think they might be all different, but why?

Even so 2 billion or less that's not really the matter. Now if you tell me that Nanjo's box is the only safe with money I'll call it bullshit. I can accept that that might be the most rich prize there, but the only one is simply insane. So it's still a big deal of money that we are talking about, and if I accept the "I keep my promise" theory I'd still reach the same conclusion: Beatrice is not driven by greed. There's no such a thing as a greed person capable to kill a whole family for money who would keep a promise to the dead.

Your theory that Nanjo would have been caught if he used the money is far-fetched. You are forgetting the fact that the whole thing was labeled as an "unfortunate incident", it wasn't considered a crime at all. No one was prosecuted, the case was closed. Also Beatrice doesn't have any reason to frame Nanjo, else why didn't she write the stories in the bottle placing Nanjo as the culprit? It doesn't make sense to me.


Quote:
Originally Posted by lovelysan View Post
Technically, Eva could of dropped the paper on the ground on purpose so that later she could. "IT WAS IN THE DOOR! I SWEAR!!!"
Actually, that's what I always figured. Because otherwise, it doesn't really make much sense for Eva to put the receipt in the door in the first place*.... Unless she was aware beforehand that something was going to happen....

*Yeah, Eva "explains" it as a "joke." But c'mon!
That's what I used to think until Ep4. Once I came to understand that the adults suspected that Kinzo was dead since a long time I finally understood why Eva did that. In Ep1 she noticed Natsuhi was going to talk to Kinzo, but Eva was almost sure Kinzo was dead. If Natsuhi was still going to deny that fact even after what happened, then there was a high probability she was involved in the crime. This is what Eva probably thought. So she followed Natsuhi till Kinzo's studio, and placed the piece of paper at the door. Eva was already planning to force Natsuhi to let her enter the studio to see Kinzo with her own eyes, she didn't want Natsuhi to tell her then: "Oh Kinzo disappeared!".
It then all happened as Eva predicted. She forced Natsuhi to let her see Kinzo, and Kinzo wasn't there. Then Natsuhi showed to be suprised of such disappearance, just as Eva predicted. That's the very point of the piece of paper. Once they got back to everyone Eva explained the situation. She thought that with that she would prove that Natsuhi was behind the murders, but Battler with his twisted logic nullified her accusations.
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Old 2009-06-27, 20:52   Link #1946
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A minor issue: Natsuhi could have "spoken with Kinzo" in his study, while he was dead and not present in the room, through a writing, recording, or any number of other things. She could have found a note, a will, a tape player, something along those lines. She could have been remembering a scene that really did happen some time before. She could have been delusional and imagining Kinzo saying things to her she always wanted to hear from him. It could just be symbolic of her resolve to take charge of the situation. Nobody needs to have been in there with her, and honestly it makes a lot more sense if no one was.
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Old 2009-06-27, 21:50   Link #1947
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Actually we don't know the exact content of those letters. We can certainly draw a cross over the possibility that one of them narrates the events of Ep3 because they say everyone dies. But we don't know if they actually narrate the events of Ep1 and Ep2.
Depends. If we can trust the end scroll of Episode 1 (of course, that's a big "if"), the message bottle that the fisherman found describes the events that occurred in that episode. Also, when Ootsuki is discussing the bottle found by the police in Episode 3 (that is, Ange's future), an image of Suit Beatrice from Episode 2 is displayed. Granted, this is pretty thin evidence.

Spoiler for Pondering Message Bottles:
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Old 2009-06-27, 21:59   Link #1948
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
This is an interesting theory however it still doesn't explain the scene we have seen. I mean if I accept your theory, then I accept the fact Nanjo knows Kinzo disappeared. In that case the scene where both Nanjo and Krauss are seen talking to Kinzo from outside the door still doesn't have any explanation. In that scene there's no one except Krauss and Nanjo, so who are they trying to trick?
I never said Nanjo knew Kinzo disappeared. During that scene where Krauss is trying to draw out Kinzo, Nanjo is there to support, and Kinzo goes off into his rants about needing Genji. Nanjo believes Kinzo is in there then. After it begins raining and Rosa wants to know who gave Maria the umbrella, that's when Nanjo says that he was in Kinzo's study playing Chess until dinner. We could say then that, he went to Kinzo's study and found that Kinzo was not there (perhaps Genji let him in), and, as per his orders, he says that Kinzo was up there and they played chess, while he believes he snuck off to Kuwadorian.
Though this makes Genji an accomplice, considering he went into the room after Krauss and Nanjo left. Unless we're getting some weird time trickery here, and this is actually a scene from LAST year
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Old 2009-06-28, 00:32   Link #1949
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If Nanjo had known about Kinzo's Kuwadorian trips (since he evidently knew about the place and the Kuwadorian harbor), then it's possible that Kinzo had given him instructions along the lines of "When I go to Kuwadorian, tell people we were playing chess."

Nanjo may have assumed that Kinzo had gone there again, not realizing that he'd actually died.
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Old 2009-06-28, 04:12   Link #1950
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I don't know... This whole "who is Kinzo?" question feels like sort of a set up to me:

Spoiler for Wild speculations about Kinzo:
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Old 2009-06-28, 07:15   Link #1951
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Originally Posted by Squirrellord View Post
I never said Nanjo knew Kinzo disappeared. During that scene where Krauss is trying to draw out Kinzo, Nanjo is there to support, and Kinzo goes off into his rants about needing Genji. Nanjo believes Kinzo is in there then. After it begins raining and Rosa wants to know who gave Maria the umbrella, that's when Nanjo says that he was in Kinzo's study playing Chess until dinner. We could say then that, he went to Kinzo's study and found that Kinzo was not there (perhaps Genji let him in), and, as per his orders, he says that Kinzo was up there and they played chess, while he believes he snuck off to Kuwadorian.
Though this makes Genji an accomplice, considering he went into the room after Krauss and Nanjo left. Unless we're getting some weird time trickery here, and this is actually a scene from LAST year
So whose voice is the one they hear? °° So far I was responding to someone who was theorizing that Krauss is the new Kinzo, but in that scene we see both Krauss and Nanjo together. Of course you probably have another idea, but my point is no matter what kind of explanation one tries to come up with there doesn't seem a way to explain those scenes except with a "they are fake or partially fake".

Quote:
If Nanjo had known about Kinzo's Kuwadorian trips (since he evidently knew about the place and the Kuwadorian harbor), then it's possible that Kinzo had given him instructions along the lines of "When I go to Kuwadorian, tell people we were playing chess."
I was under the impression the Kinzo stopped to go to the kuwadorian since a long a time, and his many disappearances are a thing of the past. So I assumed that all ended at the time real Beatrice died. Of course Kinzo might have gone there some other times for whatever business but not that frequently.

@Foobar that's an interesting theory however unless you are calling for another "names are not exclusive" thing your theory cannot stand because Battler is Kinzo's grandson . Of course that "names are not exclusive" thing could completely fuck up the 60% of red truths we know.
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Old 2009-06-28, 07:24   Link #1952
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Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Even so 2 billion or less that's not really the matter. Now if you tell me that Nanjo's box is the only safe with money I'll call it bullshit. I can accept that that might be the most rich prize there, but the only one is simply insane. So it's still a big deal of money that we are talking about, and if I accept the "I keep my promise" theory I'd still reach the same conclusion: Beatrice is not driven by greed. There's no such a thing as a greed person capable to kill a whole family for money who would keep a promise to the dead.
I've no problems with this part. I don't really think there was nothing in the other boxes, and it wouldn't be surprising if there were another one or two boxes being used for the same thing for other relatives, and whatever the case, the 100 million we're sure of is quite a sum of money, and the bank setup says that it was arranged by someone the bank thinks of as a big customer. I just think that assuming every box owned by the account is being used for this is ridiculous, and that every relative is receiving the same amount is plausible but unfounded.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Your theory that Nanjo would have been caught if he used the money is far-fetched. You are forgetting the fact that the whole thing was labeled as an "unfortunate incident", it wasn't considered a crime at all. No one was prosecuted, the case was closed. Also Beatrice doesn't have any reason to frame Nanjo, else why didn't she write the stories in the bottle placing Nanjo as the culprit? It doesn't make sense to me.
It was labelled an unfortunate incident after episode 3, which is once again the episode we know things didn't go as planned, and even at that, Nanjo's son said that he was interviewed by the police a good number of times, trying to find out about anything Nanjo might have known or been involved with. In a world where Eva didn't return home either, I'd have to think that they'd have been looking even closer into what the relatives of the deceased knew and their finances afterwards.
If it was to Beatrice's disadvantage to in any way imply Nanjo or anyone else was involved, sending the money to their relatives as some kind of gift would equally work against her if it was discovered, so I don't think that argument really works. What if Ange or any of them had thought to show their letter to the police, thinking it might have led to the capture of the person who killed their family? How likely is it that all the other people who got the letters would have hidden them if specifically asked if they got a similar letter?
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Old 2009-06-28, 07:36   Link #1953
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I cannot deny the possibility that the "unfortunate incident" only applies to ep3, but I find it unlikely. The only thing that went wrong imho is that Eva found the kuwadorian. But that's my personal opinion.

However in the case of Nanjo's son I'll have to ask you to quote where it is said that he's been questioned by the police, because I can't find it.
What I can find is:

Quote:
That was an unfortunate accident. The only ones who want to make a fuss about it being a crime are the irresponsible TV shows and magazines.
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Old 2009-06-28, 07:55   Link #1954
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I just reread a huge part of Ep1 and also lookes inside the manga version (untranslated) ... and I've gotta say Jan-Poo's theory that Jessica's asthma fits are psychological conditioned isn't that icongruous. In the Sound Novel it says that her fits got a lot worse a few years ago. I bet the pressure as the future heir, not being able to meet the expectations of her family and Kinzo must have increased a lot. Her loneliness that she must have felt since she was a child (because she was always different from the other children, and that she lives on an island) could have increased after Battler left the family. And I think we should even add the rejection she got from Kanon, a girl her age is really sensible about such things and it must have hurt her a lot.

Also Jessica said that she had "a" talk witch "Shannon-san" about George. First...why the heck does she say Shannon-san all of sudden. Second, this seems like foreshadowing for Ep 2. I remember that some people (me included) that Jessica might have dressed up as Beato and tricked Shannon and Kanon. Seems really ridiculous, it could be a lot easier. Jessica and Shannon just talked to each other, like they always did and Jessica said some indelicate things, because we all now that she has a bad temper and is impatient, and Kanon cut through the discussion. We were shown a totally altered version of it, with loads of "magic", the same goes for the latter scenes with Beato, Shannon etc.

Also don't we all forget a person?! Yes, I'm talking about unnamed Servant! Yup! The servant who had an unfortunate accident after speaking ill of Beatrice and had to quit because of the injury. Come on! You guys don't believe that this was a coincidence? I kinda believe someone "gently" shoved him down the stairs. Maybe it was Kinzo himself, or how about the servants? and am I the only person that thinks this "quit" is so similar to "transferred"


Also, was there a red truth denying the suicide of either Hideyoshi or Eva in Ep 1?

Oh and I have a question. I looked inside the Ep2 Manga and...was there really a talk between Kumasawa and Jessica before the start of the conference in front of the portrait. And what's up with that discussion of Natsuhi and Krauss after the Rosa&Maria scene. I can't remember those.
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Old 2009-06-28, 08:23   Link #1955
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Quote:
Also, was there a red truth denying the suicide of either Hideyoshi or Eva in Ep 1?
yep:

-The two were killed by other people
-It is not the case that after the creation of the closed room, one committed suicide after committing murder!
-The one who carried out the murders did so in the same room as the victims!
-No method exists for the person who carried out murder to do so from outside the room!
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Old 2009-06-28, 08:30   Link #1956
Kitsu
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Hm~ gosh this kinda sucks~ I don't think that there is a method do destroy the chain go in, committ the murders, go out and then make a new chain. (I think someone said that back then in the Ep 2 thread or so).

So... did that chain really exist? Battler never saw it and if it was already cut. So there was no closed room to begin with and the closed rooms is just a big fat lie from the servants.
I mean it like this:
-Eva and Hideyoshi lock up (creation of closed room)
-Culprit comes, cuts the chain and kills them, culprit leaves
-Servants (Genji and Kanon at first) come and create the lie of the closed room

Culprit and Servants don't necessarily need to be the same person(s)
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Old 2009-06-28, 08:46   Link #1957
Jan-Poo
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Even better: the servants entered the room with an excuse, they killed Eva and Hideyoshi without them realizing the danger, then they put on the chain and cut it from inside.

This way they recreated the closed room scenario.

Of course this is just a possibility. While Hideyoshi could have been surprised while he was under the shower, I find it hard to believe Eva would be on the bed when she was killed.

She might have been moved after her death, or maybe she was asleep and the servants entered from outside as you say, but I think it's strange she didn't awake after they opened the door and cut the chain. In that case she would have screamed

And there's still the chance that the culprit was still inside the room when everyone arrived.
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Old 2009-06-28, 09:00   Link #1958
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Originally Posted by FooBar View Post
I don't know... This whole "who is Kinzo?" question feels like sort of a set up to me:

Spoiler for Wild speculations about Kinzo:
I want to address this general line of reasoning because I really don't think it's even remotely productive. First of all, it's patently ridiculous. There are much easier ways to skip the red text.

Second, it's pretty clear that, semantically, Beatrice is referring to the individuals in the main cast when she uses their names in red. Saying Maria is dead! would be pointless if she could use that to mean "any person who has ever been named Maria." She's clearly using it to describe Ushiromiya Maria. Can you prove that? No. But I think it's safe to assume that when Beatrice speaks of things in red to describe the game board, she mostly confines it to people and events on or related to the Rokkenjima incident of the 4th-5th.

Given that, let me ask you something: If somebody posed as Kinzo ages ago, grew his fortune, fathered his children, and engaged in all his speculations and hobbies, isn't he "Ushiromiya Kinzo" regardless of who he was previously? It's utterly pointless to quibble over that sort of thing. If the man everyone acknowledged as Kinzo their entire lives wasn't "really" Kinzo, as far as everyone else is concerned he actually was.

Same thing with Kanon (except nobody can take his name but him). If someone else is Kanon, or whatever, that person is the "Kanon" we know, because there isn't any other Kanon we know. The same would apply to the game; it would be completely cheap to do otherwise.
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Old 2009-06-28, 09:02   Link #1959
Kitsu
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Actually it could have been everyone, since there is a really big gap between them locking up and being found.
So I don't think this closed room is that difficult. Actually none of the closed rooms are as closed as they seem to be.

Also, i kinda start to think that the servants might remember everything. just a hunch. (In Ep 1 they talked like the murders happened often and it could have hit everyone) But this is way to anti-mystery xDD

About the chapel murders in EP 2. Could it be that Rosa opened the letter before she did in front of Battler, just to check whats in it, cause she was worried what was inside? And then put it back without using it? After that someone sneaked in got the key and but it back.
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Old 2009-06-28, 09:13   Link #1960
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Also, i kinda start to think that the servants might remember everything. just a hunch. (In Ep 1 they talked like the murders happened often and it could have hit everyone) But this is way to anti-mystery xDD
Even Anti-Mystery can stomach something like this. It's a fact that different worlds exist, and even though the murders were most likely done by human means, the game is still palyed by the witches. Remember, Higurashi did the same thing - A human culprit is responsible, but a supernatural entity is involved, and Rika also remembered the previous worlds. Not to mention that in Episode 4 of Umineko, Kanon and Shannon basically outright state that they remember the different games. It's possible that this dialogue didn't happen either of course, but I wouldn't bank on it.
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