[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

Hey, if you're arguing that Erika is really another person, how do you get by this red text?

Furudo Erika only increases it by one person.
古戸ヱリカが1人増えただけ。

I've explained that before and I have yet to see a refutation to that. All the way up until the end of Ep6, the people count is given as "no more than X" If you increase the X by one that does not necessitate an appearance of another person, just gives them room to exist, and that room is later taken away.

[Thunder Book]

Except that there is no definite red for the people count for episode 1-4. It could be 16, but then that deals with that stupid Shkanon thing, which is a theory I don't like.

Unless Jessica is Shannon, or something weird and stupid like that.

EDIT: Another idea I've had for a little while now is that Battler is dead before all games, and that his sin is killing himself, but that creates a lot of problems, particularly with the end of the Episode 4 Tea Party.

DOUBLE EDIT: Actually scratch that last edit. It doesn't make sense at all.

[Kylon99]

Judoh, if the count is up'd to 18 temporarily it breaks the red about there not being more than 17 people on the island. If the count of people on an island can be broken for one specific game, then there can be varying amounts of people whenever the count of people isn't given. So... there's 100 people in EP1-2, 18 people in EP3 and 17 in EP4?

Oliver, the red seems to me to be increasing the count of people by one, rather than increasing the maximum number by one.


You guys seem to be arguing about Erika like it was a new mystery presented in EP5, but I think it may be helpful to take example from EP1-4 for clues.

I think you're going to get more mileage by looking at Beatrice as an example. Beatrice defines herself as a 'witch' who is never included in the count of people. We can see this from the way she argues about how no humans are the cause for any action and therefore it must be her, a witch.

Beatrice however is a conspiracy between several people to maintain the illusion of a new person. Plus also probably some rigged explosion, a wig, some padding and maybe several dressed. 8)

Maybe Erika can be defined as a witch as well on the game board? In this case she should TECHNICALLY evade the count and give legitimacy to your ideas about her masquerading as someone else. In fact, if she follows Beatrice then she could be another conspiracy. As someone said before there's a theory that she was a hired detective working in conjunction with the Man From 19 Years Ago.

The only thing that trips this idea up is that red line I presented about her increasing the count.

(You could argue that Lambda's reds are untrustworthy or something but I have a feeling all the red text comes from her to begin with. And then you'd have to break down red by the person who spoke it... Battler, Beatrice, Eva, Lambda, Bern, Erika, Dlanor... even Natsuhi...)

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

Judoh, if the count is up'd to 18 temporarily it breaks the red about there not being more than 17 people on the island.

No it doesn't. That red is from episode 4 it has no bearing on any games afterward. Only the games previous to episode 4. Besides her early death nothing would be different from the previous games. The count stays at 17 even with her appearance.

Furudo Erika had no influence on any of Beato's games before now.
She does not exist in the worlds before this one, nor does she influence them.

Unless your talking about the episode 6 red. And for that I can just use Seagull's theory.

[Kylon99]

Oh, here's another example. Kinzo is a conspiracy to pretend someone is real when they're not. And Kinzo as well is not included in the person count.

What I'm trying to say is that instead of saying someone is 'acting' as Erika, which has the same shades as a Shannon Dual-Identity Disorder, it might be more useful to think of people with limited existences in terms of a conspiracy. We have both Beatrice and Kinzo as examples. With:

Kanon
Erika

It's possible that there is one or more conspiracies to create the illusion of these people.

Oh, the 'Man From 19 Years Ago' is definitely yet another conspiracy to create the illusion of another person... Man.. if you really think about it, what the @#$! is wrong with this family... 8)

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

Oliver, the red seems to me to be increasing the count of people by one, rather than increasing the maximum number by one.

If it were increasing count and not the maximum, it would also indirectly, but quite unambiguously for the first time ever be defining the number at exactly 17.

That would incidentally kill Shkanon, as with most varieties of Shkanon a 17th body does not exist. Since it's still a trump card in Ep6, I don't think Lambdadelta meant it quite that way.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

Oh, here's another example. Kinzo is a conspiracy to pretend someone is real when they're not. And Kinzo as well is not included in the person count.

What I'm trying to say is that instead of saying someone is 'acting' as Erika, which has the same shades as a Shannon Dual-Identity Disorder, it might be more useful to think of people with limited existences in terms of a conspiracy. We have both Beatrice and Kinzo as examples. With:

Kanon
Erika

It's possible that there is one or more conspiracies to create the illusion of these people.

Oh, the 'Man From 19 Years Ago' is definitely yet another conspiracy to create the illusion of another person... Man.. if you really think about it, what the @#$! is wrong with this family... 8)

Most people explain away the reds by saying that Erika is just a point of view that gets passed around. I don't know of anyone who says people "act as Erika". What would be the purpose of acting like a total stranger? You can also use a theory similar to Chronotrig's where X person who doesn't exist is an imaginary friend that exists only in people's minds. Somebody has to create this person though so since Maria is the first to meet her she'd probably be that person.

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Judoh

No it doesn't. That red is from episode 4 it has no bearing on any games afterward. Only the games previous to episode 4. Besides her early death nothing would be different from the previous games. The count stays at 17 even with her appearance.

Furudo Erika had no influence on any of Beato's games before now.
She does not exist in the worlds before this one, nor does she influence them.

Unless your talking about the episode 6 red. And for that I can just use Seagull's theory.

No, you had it. I am talking about the red from EP4. The red you just quoted me said that Erika has no influence, not that the red from previous games have no influence. However (this is the entire wall of red from Beatrice during her and Battler's conversation about his theory on Kinzo in EP4)


No matter what the disguise, they would not mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo!
Kinzo's life or death status is the same at the start of each of the four games.
The setup was not different for the fourth game alone...!
Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!
Before now, I have proclaimed that no more than 18 humans exist on this island.
I will lower that by one for Kinzo!!
No more than 17 humans exist on this island!!
That excludes any 18th person.
In short, this 18th person X does not exist!!
This applies to all games!!!


The no more than 17 humans ends up applying to all games. Beatrice said it herself. I don't think it's logical to say a later red can overwrite a previous red, if those two lines you quoted even referred to the count of humans. In fact, the clue from EP5 that reds applied without specific game contexts end up applying to all future games. And that line is like in the same conversation about the no more than 17 person limit. If future reds can overwrite old reds then really your current game is an entirely independent game. You cannot take any ideas from previous games.

Anyways, I'm just talking about the improbability that Erika can increase the count to 18. Or how anyone can increase the count to 18 temporarily. There's no problem if she never made it and is just a ghost or an idea...

Originally Posted by Oliver

If it were increasing count and not the maximum, it would also indirectly, but quite unambiguously for the first time ever be defining the number at exactly 17.

That would incidentally kill Shkanon, as with most varieties of Shkanon a 17th body does not exist. Since it's still a trump card in Ep6, I don't think Lambdadelta meant it quite that way.

I think you mean the 16 person count for prior games, assuming that Erika did add one and that the 17 person count in the end included Erika. I didn't catch it at the time, but yes, going back halfway through EP6, I thought that was such an obvious hint that I was ready for the 16 person count. 8) Not the first time almost all of us missed obvious clues like there being Knox rules but no Dine rules since EP2... ;__;

Anyways...

Both Kanon and Erika suffer from the same problem. That is they are both seemingly incorporeal and yet have the ability to do or affect things. If you can solve the issue for one you can probably solve the issue for the other. If I had to choose, I would tend to stick to a Kanon conspiracy however since he doesn't affect the count of red and he was in EP1-4, leading this to something you can solve without EP5 and 6. In fact, I wonder if Kanon was supposed to be the clue for Erika... and if that's the case there's an extra person. 8) I wonder if it was no coincidence the two were in the same room in EP6.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

No, you had it. I am talking about the red from EP4. The red you just quoted me said that Erika has no influence, not that the red from previous games have no influence. However (this is the entire wall of red from Beatrice during her and Battler's conversation about his theory on Kinzo in EP4)


No matter what the disguise, they would not mistake Ushiromiya Kinzo!
Kinzo's life or death status is the same at the start of each of the four games.
The setup was not different for the fourth game alone...!
Kinzo is already dead at the starting time for all games!
Before now, I have proclaimed that no more than 18 humans exist on this island.
I will lower that by one for Kinzo!!
No more than 17 humans exist on this island!!
That excludes any 18th person.
In short, this 18th person X does not exist!!
This applies to all games!!!


The no more than 17 humans ends up applying to all games. Beatrice said it herself. I don't think it's logical to say a later red can overwrite a previous red, if those two lines you quoted even referred to the count of humans. In fact, the clue from EP5 that reds applied without specific game contexts end up applying to all future games. And that line is like in the same conversation about the no more than 17 person limit. If future reds can overwrite old reds then really your current game is an entirely independent game. You cannot take any ideas from previous games.

Anyways, I'm just talking about the improbability that Erika can increase the count to 18. Or how anyone can increase the count to 18 temporarily. There's no problem if she never made it and is just a ghost or an idea...

I think your overcomplicating things. The red says she increases it by one person. How she does that is the problem. All my solution does is make her an 18th person while still having 17 people on the island. That's why it's temporary.

That and episode 5 hadn't been made yet. Bern and Lambda took that into account. That's why they give all those reds for her not influencing any of the previous games. All games would then equal all games that existed when that red was proclaimed.

[Renall]

"All games" is implied to mean "all games, including this one and all previous games." If she'd meant "all games ever," she might have had to further clarify that.

It's like if Battler suddenly kills someone in ep7. Yes, Virgilia said Battler has not killed anybody in ep5, and applied it to all games. But she has to have meant existing games at the time of the red. Besides, we use this for "x is dead," which we already know means "x is dead at the time of this statement." Any universalized red can't possibly apply to all games ever to exist unless explicitly stated to apply to all future games as well. Otherwise things would stop making much sense.

[Judoh]

Beato is not a fortune teller. When she talks about "all games" in episode 4 it should only reference games she knows about. If all games really meant ALL GAMES EVEN IN THE FUTURE NO EXCEPTIONS than we'd have to include fangames and games that Battler might have experienced that we never read. That's why the Kinzo red had to be repeated so many times in episode 5.

How was she supposed to know that a new character was going to appear later?

[Renall]

Well, the reds about people being dead are actually a great example about this. Kinzo's death has to explicitly be stated to apply as a start condition for all games, which would universalize it. But we can't say "George is dead, this applies to all games!" because at the start of a new game, George isn't dead yet, and indeed this red makes no sense as George may die at some point in all games, but there seems to be a point at which he's always alive in all games.

So yes, it can't apply to the future.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Renall

Well, the reds about people being dead are actually a great example about this. Kinzo's death has to explicitly be stated to apply as a start condition for all games, which would universalize it. But we can't say "George is dead, this applies to all games!" because at the start of a new game, George isn't dead yet, and indeed this red makes no sense as George may die at some point in all games, but there seems to be a point at which he's always alive in all games.

So yes, it can't apply to the future.

Right, unless otherwise specified, the red truth only applies at that specific moment in time, in that game.

So the statement You are incompetent! applies to Battler in Episode 2, but it may or may not hold through throughout the rest of the games.

If I were to say "Team X lost the soccer game," it doesn't mean that Team X will continue to lose for all eternity; rather, they lost this particular game at this particular time.

[Kylon99]

If Beato can't predict the future then all of a sudden someone CAN recognize Kinzo via a disguise? The proof that red holds for all games (when the context is not game specific) is that one line. It held for EP5 when it was stated in EP4.

This is what gave rise to the author theory, by the way. The idea that someone ELSE knew there's only 16 people but realized the count so far hadn't gone down to it.

[Renall]

If there are universalized reds that apply absolutely to all games, we don't necessarily know at this time which ones those are.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

If Beato can't predict the future then all of a sudden someone CAN recognize Kinzo via a disguise? The proof that red holds for all games (when the context is not game specific) is that one line. It held for EP5 when it was stated in EP4.

This is what gave rise to the author theory, by the way. The idea that someone ELSE knew there's only 16 people but realized the count so far hadn't gone down to it.

There is a difference between a statement like Natsuhi is dead and No one could mistake anything for Kinzo.

I guess it depends on the situation, but something like "no one could ever" would apply ALWAYS, whereas something describing someone's state would apply at the moment.

It becomes difficult to figure out what applies where, though.

[Judoh]

No one would mistake Kinzo by sight is not time specific. So disguises of Kinzo still wouldn't work even if Kinzo wasn't dead at the start of all games.

This red is descriptive of the character not the time. The red about his death is time specific and this had to be repeated to Erika because she was ignoring it. But you don't have to set that up for future games for it to be universal.

[Kylon99]

That's true... however, if you go through all the reds you can see the ones not specified for a particular episode can be applied to all games. Or rather things where they talk about some truth of a person or situation. Things like "Natsuhi is not the culprit" or "Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo are not murderers." In these cases they're talking about their personality.

It might be a worthwhile exercise to sort through them all again and see which ones are clearly specific to an EP and which ones may have been intentionally vague.

There is one exception which I have not checked yet. And that's "Rosa was holding all the master keys." This may have occured in a discussion about EP2 though (in EP4.)

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Judoh

No one would mistake Kinzo by sight is not time specific. So disguises of Kinzo still wouldn't work even if Kinzo wasn't dead at the start of all games.

This red is descriptive of the character not the time. The red about his death is time specific and this had to be repeated to Erika because she was ignoring it. But you don't have to set that up for future games for it to be universal.

I'm reading the red about the limit of people on the island to also not be time specific either. I mean, if you think about it, we've been using the limit from EP1-4. Why should it suddenly break in EP5-6? The only reason I can think of is because Beatrice is not there to control the game so a new gamemaster can totally subvert what was originally true for EP1-4.

But if that's true of the count of people, then that can be true of almost anything else. Now, Kinzo COULD be alive. Battler could commit murders, or worse yet, he could actually be useful! *gasp*

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

That's true... however, if you go through all the reds you can see the ones not specified for a particular episode can be applied to all games. Or rather things where they talk about some truth of a person or situation. Things like "Natsuhi is not the culprit" or "Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo are not murderers." In these cases they're talking about their personality.

It might be a worthwhile exercise to sort through them all again and see which ones are clearly specific to an EP and which ones may have been intentionally vague.

There is one exception which I have not checked yet. And that's "Rosa was holding all the master keys." This may have occured in a discussion about EP2 though (in EP4.)

I haven't really though about this, but the statement Kinzo is dead at the start of all the games is very, very vague.

This is said at the end of Episode 4, isn't it?
So we can only guarantee that the statement is true for Episodes 1-4.

Now. Let us assume that all the kakeras coexist and that they exist "simultaneously."

A kakera could exist such that Kinzo did not die (like maybe Episode 5) but since the statement Kinzo is dead at the start of all games was not said before said kakera was created/examined, it could be granted immunity from this particular red.

Let's take, for example, human beings. The statement A human requires a functional brain to survive may apply now, but who's to say that this won't be false in the future?
After all, with developing medical procedures, maybe humans will be able to live off life support without a functional brain.

That's something to think about, I guess.

EDIT: Gah, Kylon99 beat me to it.

EDIT2: Forgot to add this, but the statement Kinzo is already dead (whatever form that is used in Ep.5, anyway) may be false FOR Episode 5, but is not a lie because he is dead in Ep.1-4! Since all the kakera exist at the same time, then one version of Kinzo could be dead while the Ep.5 one isn't.

...But that would have very bad effects on every other game, so actually never mind :/