[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Neofio3]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

However I find it hard to believe he was killed by a trap or a bomb or something like that. If there is a "time bomb" or something similar in Rokkenjima then why was there no sign of such an event in any of the police investigations, and why did Eva survive in episode 3 since presumably she didn't actually know where Kuwadorian was?

Regardless, Eva was found in Kuwadorian. She obviously made her way there at some point.

In any case, it doesn't have to be a trap specifically for Battler but a general trap for everyone. See here for my theory on what that trap is (barring some implausible ones, like Rube Goldberg devices, or unexploded WWII ordinance).

Originally Posted by Tsuyi

For the animal theory, wouldn't it be the animal who killed Battler, and not Beatrice? Considering the red text in which she specifically says that she will kill him. After all, an animal can not be viewed the same way as an object or a weapon, it is another life form altogether....

Alternatively, Beatrice can be a "confluence of events" - more like a concept of the "rules of the game" in Rokkenjima. I.e. She symbolizes all the events, circumstances and factors that lead to people dying in the island. Going by that theory, Beatrice would be like Bernkastel and Lambdadelta, more incarnations of fate than anything (as these two were similarly representations of the conditions in Higurashi)

[rogerpepitone]

Being somewhat contrarian:
- What if the the mastermind X's main plan didn't involve the deaths of most of the people on Rokkenjima? What if it the typhoon, instead of being the key that enabled X to carry out the crimes, was as unforseen circumstance that forced the murders?
(Perhaps there was an event that would occur on Rokkenjima at 12:01 on the sixth and could not be rescheduled. X had been assuming that everyone would be gone by then and was most upset about having to change plans.)

- Is there any possible objective other than the Ushiromiya fortune?

- Is there anything Maria might know, or be able to do, that could be of value to anyone else?

[Arkwright]

Originally Posted by Neofio3

Regardless, Eva was found in Kuwadorian. She obviously made her way there at some point.

In any case, it doesn't have to be a trap specifically for Battler but a general trap for everyone. See here for my theory on what that trap is (barring some implausible ones, like Rube Goldberg devices, or unexploded WWII ordinance).

Well, as I said, if the trap was set for everyone in general, and is set to go off every time, wouldn't the event (in this case the destruction of the mansion by an explosion) appear in the police reports/in Ange's investigation?

Originally Posted by Neofio3

Alternatively, Beatrice can be a "confluence of events" - more like a concept of the "rules of the game" in Rokkenjima. I.e. She symbolizes all the events, circumstances and factors that lead to people dying in the island. Going by that theory, Beatrice would be like Bernkastel and Lambdadelta, more incarnations of fate than anything (as these two were similarly representations of the conditions in Higurashi)

I also thought of the possibility that Beatrice might be some sort of concept or intangible entity (a plan, conspiracy, etc.), but my thought was that that would go against the "I am here" section of the red. A concept can't really be "here."

[Neofio3]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

Well, as I said, if the trap was set for everyone in general, and is set to go off every time, wouldn't the event (in this case the destruction of the mansion by an explosion) appear in the police reports/in Ange's investigation?"

The "large trap" would work as the opposite. It would in fact destroy all evidence found (as found in the police reports, the entire tragedy was an "accident"). What that "accident" was has not been revealed as of yet. A tragic boiler explosion would appear as an accident in police reports, as is some natural calamity, like a landslide or a tsunami (and indeed, there is even an indication of a landslide blocking the way to the mansion when Ange tries to visit it in Ep4).

The greater question you should be asking is if there is no large, catastrophic event which wipes out the mansion (and by extension all evidence), the police would find the rather obvious indication of murders having taken place by people with what appears to be bulletholes in them, and stakes in their foreheads.

It would stand to reason that something wipes out all evidence the police can find, enough to blur the possibility of Eva being a murderer in Ep3.

[Arkwright]

They were able to find Mammon's stake at least, so presumably not all evidence was destroyed. My memory is clearly unreliable but I seem to remember a feeling of "the site was intact but everyone was missing." Surely their disappearance is a question that begs answering, though.

Also there were Kinzo's books that Eva sold but I don't remember whether it was stated that they came from the main mansion or Kuwadorian.

[Kurizu204]

For Battler's death in Ep.4 I always thought it would be funny if he drowned in a puddle. LOL Since before Beatrice showed up the day Battler was drinking. What if he passed out in the rain. I'd lol hardcore but probably will never be true since he is asked "Who am I?"

[Ithekro]

Beatrice is Jack Daniels?



How long before the police arrived on the island? The only reason for there to be police would be when the boat came and no one was there to great it...the Captain or whoever else was on board (other servants prehaps) went looking for someone, since the family was suppose to be going home. Someone found something before calling for an investigation...that's just how it works. It wouldn't be, "And the next morning when the police arrived, they found nothing at the mansion. An expanded search found the eldest daughter of the family crying in a second house on the other side of the island. It seems like there was a terrible accident and only the eldest daughter, Eva, survived. The rest of the families are survived by the youngest son's little daughter, Ange, who was not on the island this past few days."

Things just don't work like that. The police don't move on something unless they have a reason to move. So aside from the boat that was suppose to pick them up, the first people that would notice they were missing would be business partners, local friends...schoolmates...and of course Ange, but what's she going to do about it at age six? After that, then the police might be called and unless the boat captain reported something, it would be a little while before anyone arrived.

Unless there was something major that happened that would have someone out their looking to see if everyone was alright...like say...a major damaging Typhoon. But then...the answer to the riddle of Beatrice, the reason the survivors in the mansion die, and why Eva survived on the other side of the island...is the Typhoon.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

They were able to find Mammon's stake at least, so presumably not all evidence was destroyed. My memory is clearly unreliable but I seem to remember a feeling of "the site was intact but everyone was missing." Surely their disappearance is a question that begs answering, though.

Also there were Kinzo's books that Eva sold but I don't remember whether it was stated that they came from the main mansion or Kuwadorian.

All of the books that Eva had were recovered from Kuwadorian. Ootsuki said that the Ushiromiya Library was actually much larger, but the rest of it had been destroyed in some unspecified way. Presumably that means something happened to Kinzo's study and possibly the library in the guesthouse.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

All of the books that Eva had were recovered from Kuwadorian. Ootsuki said that the Ushiromiya Library was actually much larger, but the rest of it had been destroyed in some unspecified way. Presumably that means something happened to Kinzo's study and possibly the library in the guesthouse.

I would doubt that Kinzo gave any of his valuable books to the library in the guesthouse, knowing that Krauss built it as a resort. Most books should be in his study or in Kuwadorian (probably Kinzo has reconstructed this place into his research laboratory after cliff-falling Beatrice died).

Most likely his study was destoryed and so a large portion of his books were lost forever.

[Neofio3]

Originally Posted by ijriims

I would doubt that Kinzo gave any of his valuable books to the library in the guesthouse, knowing that Krauss built it as a resort. Most books should be in his study or in Kuwadorian (probably Kinzo has reconstructed this place into his research laboratory after cliff-falling Beatrice died).

Most likely his study was destoryed and so a large portion of his books were lost forever.

The library in the guesthouse is specifically stated to contain normal books, the bookspace in the main building gradually being taken up by arcane volumes until no space was left. The normal books (presumably encyclopedias, novels, etc...) were pretty much shafted into secondary status in the second building.

This says nothing about possible books in Kuwadorian, of course.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

All of the books that Eva had were recovered from Kuwadorian. Ootsuki said that the Ushiromiya Library was actually much larger, but the rest of it had been destroyed in some unspecified way. Presumably that means something happened to Kinzo's study and possibly the library in the guesthouse.

I'd like to point out that Otsuki specifically said that "it was explained" that those books "escaped" the Rokkenjima disaster. In another instance it is said that the books were recovered from the Kuwadorian.

This tells us two things:

- Some kind of disaster actually happened and it was big enough to involve stuff, including books.
- Since an explanation was necessary, then this means that the general public knows what kind of disaster happened, and it was something that would normally make you think books didn't survive.


There is practically no doubt about it. It is 90% certain, a disaster occurred. With the remaining 10% you'd have to think the police is covering up the truth

Now if a disaster occurred then it must have happened everytime or almost everytime. This logic isn't 100% certain, but let us suppose it is the case. Then let's put the facts together and try to figure out what kind of accident could it be


- I have already said that it is something that would involve books
- From episode4 you can deduct that it is something that made the police believe it was an accident and not a crime
- From episode1's end roll, it is said that several "body pieces" were found. It was an unimaginably gruesome scene. The cousins were thought to have survived until the end, however any hope was abandoned when they found a piece of Maria's Jawbone
- It is hinted that only by staying on the Kuwadorian side it is possible to survive. Eva was there and survived, the books were there and survived.


Putting together the body pieces fact and the books, I would think about an explosion and consequent fire. The boiler room theory could work. However this doesn't satisfies the rest. Why Eva had to find refuge in Kuwadorian? Why didn't she wait for rescue at the main port? Why inside a hidden mansion that no one was supposed to know? It is totally possible that Kawabata informed the police, but Eva wasn't supposed to know.
Eva should have waited in the guesthouse. Of course there is the possibility that Eva went completely insane.

Personally I'm doubtful that a simple gas leak could lead to such a destructive power. Then maybe an old remnant bomb from WWII? But a single bomb doesn't explain this event, unless it's "Fat Boy II" (which can't be).

The animal theory doesn't work. It would explain the gruesome scene, it would explain why Eva had to escape far away, but it doesn't explain the books.

The typhoon theory doesn't work. Mainly because at the end of October5 the typhoon ends, and that's when the disaster occurs. But also because a typhoon can't mincemeat people.

The landslide theory can work. But it must be of a very high magnitude and include a lot of rocks. That way you can expect the bodies to be completely crushed by it.
This would explain why Eva couldn't stay there. This also would explain the disappearance of other bodies. However this means Ange shouldn't really expect to find a Mansion in Rokkenjima anymore. Well this kinda match. It looks that the port itself was gone.

The tsunami theory doesn't work at all. The Mansion is located way high above the sea level. There's no tsunami that could reach up there, and it wouldn't mincemeat the bodies.

The volcano theory isn't very likely. While it would explain why Eva can't stay in the area, it would hardly explain the state of the bodies. If they were engulfed by lava you wouldn't find "pieces". If they weren't, you'd find them burned up but there's no way you can justify a piece a jaw.



Is there another theory? Well in the end landslide is the most probable one. I'm thinking more of the possibility that the rock where the mansion and guesthouse were crumbled down, rather than imagining something from above. This way you can imagine a "ground zero" scenario afterward. Also this would explain why the port was gone.
However this doesn't completely match Ep4 because it looks like a portion of the winding path is still there.

[ijriims]

If one could trigger a landslide with that magnitude with some bombs, then I think the bomb can also be used to blow the whole mansion away.

But why could Maria's notebook be recovered? I suppose Eva took it after killing them. (When Eva tried to kill Maria, Maria should be shouting "Beatrice, why have you broken the promise!!". So she suddenly realized that Maria was colluding with someone.)

She deduced that there was a Beatrice working behind the whole scene from the notebook? Because she found the explosives or boiler room going wrong after killing Battler so she immediately escaped?

Many case can happen. But I think tremendous amount of explosive were used to reduce the whole mansion into dust and bodies into pieces, if Rokkenjima was really not a normal island from the beginning. In this case, police would also have incentive to hide up the whole event because of the secret nature of the island.

Landslide...... can it reduce human body into pieces? I suppose if I put a person into a tornato of rocks and detris then it is possible. If not, then the body should just be slide down with the debris and soil.

[Jan-Poo]

If such a huge amount of explosive was used, then I doubt it wouldn't leave any trace. It wouldn't be called an incident but a planned mass murder.

[Neofio3]

The problem with the landslide theory (as with any natural disaster) is that its ultimately unstoppable, effectively screwing everyone. There is nothing anyone can do about it, aside from getting the hell out of dodge, and running away doesn't exactly seem as a dramatic sort of climax.

Not that it isn't actually plausible, given what we know, especially with details seen in Ep4.

[ijriims]

If Rokkenjima was secret military base during the WWII... after the police arriving at the island and discovered its hidden nature.... the government has enough incentive to define the whole incident as accident.

And to trigger artificial landslide, trace would also be left. (Natural disasters almost never happen at a particular time across episodes, as you and I would agree)

Speculation indeed...

[Arachanox]

I do like the logic of the landslide, but I don't think it could be the "accident" we are looking for simply because I haven't gotten the impression that Rokkenjima has steep enough cliffs to cause such a landslide.

The island does have a steep cliff going along its edges, and it is mentioned that there is a winding path upwards to the mansion, but it is never mentioned that there was any hills or cliffs on the island which were above the elevation of the mansion. We can't assume there's a random mesa next to the mansion which collapsed.

Also, if you believe that the mansion is sufficiently inland to protect it from tsunamis, then I say that the mansion is sufficiently inland to not be affected by a coastal landslide; a situation where perhaps the cliffs around the port collapse. Maybe that whole part of the coastline would fall into the sea, but the mansion is still really far inland exemplified by everyone noting how long the 'long winding path' is.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Neofio3

The problem with the landslide theory (as with any natural disaster) is that its ultimately unstoppable, effectively screwing everyone. There is nothing anyone can do about it, aside from getting the hell out of dodge, and running away doesn't exactly seem as a dramatic sort of climax.

Not that it isn't actually plausible, given what we know, especially with details seen in Ep4.

The event was supposed to be unstoppable.

I hypothesize the reason why Beatrice had to such a random method to send the money to Nanjo's, Kumasawa's relatives and Ange (at least they were the people shown to have received the letter) was because no one else could send the money for her (or him) as all people involved should have died after the 5th Oct (including Beatrice and accomplices (if any)).

Because she did not want to let any more people to know about the money, so she must resort to this method for she was supposed to die in the event.

Therefore I said the 00:00 disaster was designed to be unstoppable.

[Arkwright]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Is there another theory? Well in the end landslide is the most probable one. I'm thinking more of the possibility that the rock where the mansion and guesthouse were crumbled down, rather than imagining something from above. This way you can imagine a "ground zero" scenario afterward. Also this would explain why the port was gone.
However this doesn't completely match Ep4 because it looks like a portion of the winding path is still there.

There's doesn't necessarily have to be a connection between the books and the disaster. If you want another theory, Eva could have just not sold the books that "didn't survive" and hidden them somewhere.

As for a disaster theory, I don't really imagine an exploding boiler destroying an entire mansion of that size, unless there were explosives involved as well. Judging by the estimated size of the boiler room it would not be a particularly large boiler. So it would be rather unreliable as a "time's up" device - even if it somehow caused a fire in addition to rupturing, I would think that anyone who wasn't in the room or maybe an adjacent room would have time to escape.

[Arachanox]

And yet Eva survived. If it is "unstoppable", it is at least "localized" to not affect Kuwadorian.

[ijriims]

Of course, the disaster was not a nuke, so the effect should not destory Kuwadorian in any case.

But we should not jump to the conclusion that the gold was in Kuwadorian or Eva hid in Kuwadorian actually.

My guess was there was extensive underground tunnel system and the location of the 10t gold was hidden well within the maze. Kuwadorian was just another route of the tunnel system. If we believe Eva did solve the epigraph in EP3, then she shoud only know about the route to gold but not Kwadorian.

Actually, it was unlikely for the gold to be in Kwadorian. It was initially a residence for cliff-falling Beatrice. And there must be someone (at least one female, in this case Kumasawa) other than Kinzo to take care of her when she was still a child. If the gold located within the Kwadorian, then it would be too risky concerning Kumasawa's nature...

The reason for Kumasawa's temporary leaving should be that she tried to find the gold hidden in the tunnel system but lost, then Kinzo found out and fired her. She latter pleaded to him and successfully came back to the family. (also the reason she was never given the right to bear the one-wing eagle symbol as she was proven untrustworthy.)