The Syria Crisis

[Draco Spirit]

When it comes to creditability,its not like this is the first time Russian planes have got 'lost' in recent memory, through this is the first time its included explosions.

[lateumn]

Originally Posted by Haak

The Guardian

I see no links to original source of the release. So I guess this "official release" is the fake leak the Russian MoD was talking about.

Meantime, "both the American and Turkish air forces halted their strikes on Syrian territory around the time Russia deployed S-400 air defense complexes at the Khmeimin airbase, from which it stages its own incursions against Islamic State."

Originally Posted by Draco Spirit

When it comes to creditability,its not like this is the first time Russian planes have got 'lost' in recent memory, through this is the first time its included explosions.

It doesn't seem like the Russian plane violated Turkish airspace, but even if it did, Turkey violated basic protocols by shooting it down without giving a visual warning and/or confirming its identity. Considering many foreign warplanes cross the area, it might have just as accidentally shot down a NATO warplane. So the story just stinks of rotten fish from all sides.

[lateumn]

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/bel...ed-russian-jet

Belgian Physicists Calculate that Everyone Is Lying About the Downed Russian Jet

Excerpts:

... the physicists take that speed and compare it to the distance the jets traveled in Turkish airspace according to the Turkish map, around 2 kilometers. When flying at a speed of 980 km/h, an object would cover that distance in seven seconds, instead of the 17 seconds according to Turkish reports. To cross that distance in 17 seconds, the plane should have been traveling at a meager 420 km/h. The video shows this simply could not be true, if the crash site is accurate. Physics 1, Turkey 0.
...
According to those facts, the warnings couldn’t possibly have been issued in the time the jets were in Turkish territory. Unless Turkish air controllers can speak impossibly fast, issuing ten warnings in seven seconds seems kinda improbable. Physics 2, Turkey 0.
...
“A change of course of 90 degrees can only be achieved with an object that’s many times heavier or faster than the jet,” the physicists write. From this we can conclude that the jets were not actively trying to avoid Turkish territory, which is the Russian side of the story. Physics 3, Turkey 0, Russia 0.

I'm not entirely sure about the last point, since they identify the 90 degree turn based on a scaled map. If the fins of the plane were damaged by the missile, it could have been forced into a sharp turn, certainly not a instant 90°, but planes are extremely tiny in relation to the scale of the map. So that point is kinda dumb unless I'm missing something.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by lateumn

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/bel...ed-russian-jet

Belgian Physicists Calculate that Everyone Is Lying About the Downed Russian Jet

Excerpts:



I'm not entirely sure about the last point, since they identify the 90 degree turn based on a scaled map. If the fins of the plane were damaged by the missile, it could have been forced into a sharp turn, certainly not a instant 90°, but planes are extremely tiny in relation to the scale of the map. So that point is kinda dumb unless I'm missing something.

Unless Turkey considers Syrian Turkoman territory part of Turkey of course....

[SaintessHeart]

A sobering read.

No Better Friend, No Worse Enemy : A Former Marine's Take On The Refugee Crisis

Take in the neighborhood kids. Feed them well. And if dad comes around with liquor on his breath and anger in his heart, drop him to the pavement.

[risingstar3110]

Russian Defense Ministry just provided evidences of Turkey- ISIS oil smuggling. I actually want Turkey to response on this, because it's so freaking obvious that Turkey had a hand in this, if they a) allow fleet and fleet of obviously oil trucks coming into their border, and b) even build infrastructure to handle and process these oil fleets

[Haak]

Turkey has been doing much worse that helps ISIS. (though that doesn't have anything to do with the jet downing.)

[KiraYamatoFan]

Seriously, if that's how Turkey thanks NATO for decades of support through thick and thin after 1945, they are as good as kicked out from NATO. Honestly, I would happily trade Turkey away for Ukraine if I was one of the NATO higher-ups.

As long as that two-faced fa**** Erdogan is there, that's what Turkey (the government, not the people) deserves. Meanwhile, the Turkish people better start smelling the coffee and act if they still value their lifestyle and old alliances.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

Seriously, if that's how Turkey thanks NATO for decades of support through thick and thin after 1945, they are as good as kicked out from NATO. Honestly, I would happily trade Turkey away for Ukraine if I was one of the NATO higher-ups.

As long as that two-faced fa**** Erdogan is there, that's what Turkey (the government, not the people) deserves. Meanwhile, the Turkish people better start smelling the coffee and act if they still value their lifestyle and old alliances.

The thing is that Turkey is sort of a backup plan against the Shia Iran in the 1980s. The Saudis aren't very keen on them, and Turkey, being neutral, acts as an intermediary and balancing force.

It is Erdogan. He must go.

[c933103]

Originally Posted by lateumn

http://motherboard.vice.com/read/bel...ed-russian-jet

Belgian Physicists Calculate that Everyone Is Lying About the Downed Russian Jet

Excerpts:



I'm not entirely sure about the last point, since they identify the 90 degree turn based on a scaled map. If the fins of the plane were damaged by the missile, it could have been forced into a sharp turn, certainly not a instant 90°, but planes are extremely tiny in relation to the scale of the map. So that point is kinda dumb unless I'm missing something.

I think the change in course might be an response to enemy jet instead of territorial identification.

Also, those warning might be issued in the process of russian jet approaching, within and leaved the turkish region, or have turkish claim all the warnings were given strictly within their territory ?

[AnimeFan188]

US and Russia reportedly set up Syrian airbases
within 30 miles of each other:

"The US and Russia are working to establish air bases in Northern Syria,
within 30 miles of each other, an activist group has claimed. Russian
warplanes are expected to begin using the Qamishli International Airport,
according to the British-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

The base needs fortification, but teams of Russian experts had arrived to
"explore its readiness and to check what is needed to develop and use
it", the Observatory said. The activist did not say when the base, which
is currently controlled by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar Assad,
would be operational."


"Less than 30 miles away from the Russian base, US special operations
troops have reportedly taken over the Rmeilan Airbase, near Syria's
Iraqi and Turkish borders."

See:

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/us-russia-r...-other-1539716



War makes strange bedfellows?

[yulinard]

Are you ready for World War 3?

[AnimeFan188]

Defense Secretary Carter Says UAE Agreed to Send
Special Ops to Syria:

"U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter said a key Persian Gulf ally has
agreed to send special forces soldiers to Syria to assist in the
development of local Sunni Arab fighters focused on recapturing the ISIS
stronghold of Raqqa."

See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/de...-syria-n517531


==========================


Saudi Arabia To Send Jets To Turkey As Russia Says 'A
New Cold War' Has Begun:

"Changes are already underway following Secretary of Defense Ashton
Carter’s attempt to reboot the anti-ISIS coalition while in Brussels.
Saudi fighter jets will be heading to Turkey, and a Turkish-Saudi
ground offensive in Syria looks like it could be a real possibility—an
idea that Russia despises."

See:

http://foxtrotalpha.jalopnik.com/sau...rms-1758964169


==========================


More countries sticking their fingers in the Syrian pie. Where will it all
lead?

[yulinard]

Originally Posted by AnimeFan188

More countries sticking their fingers in the Syrian pie. Where will it all
lead?

World War 3.

[Ithekro]

Hopefully not. The Christian fundamentalists are basically waiting for it to happen around Israel so the end times will come, Jesus will return and they all go to heaven and let the world burn. To rebuild afterwards in their own image.

I'd rather we live as a species, go to the stars. That sort of thing.

[yulinard]

World war only happen when two superpower collide and drag everyone into it.

WW I happen between Russia and Germany over Serbia.
WW II happen between Axis and the combined power of Britain and France over Poland.

WW III will happen over Syria if the last option left for Russia for Mediterranean access is denied to them.

[Ithekro]

Only if they think that is important enough to escalated the fighting to drag in the Americans and NATO (again) along with the local Arab counties and Iran. It Turkey doesn't cut them off in the Black Sea, which it could do even without the Russians having a base in Syria.

What is the state of Russia's allies these days? It has been a long time since the end of the Cold War and their rebuilding process from the late 90s to present. Who is left that will back them if this gets out of hand (and hopefully non-nuclear).

The trouble might be 2017 and whoever the new US President is. Do any of the candidates seem even remotely reasonable if Russia pushes in Syria?

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Do any of the candidates seem even remotely reasonable if Russia pushes in Syria?

Is it even "pushing" if they were invited?

I don't see the issue of the Syrian government seeking military aid from their biggest ally. Why should anyone complain, if a government asked for help, and obtained it? Why should the Syrian government be punished for wanting to be helped?

[yulinard]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Only if they think that is important enough to escalated the fighting to drag in the Americans and NATO (again) along with the local Arab counties and Iran. It Turkey doesn't cut them off in the Black Sea, which it could do even without the Russians having a base in Syria.

Their choice to abandon Mediterranean access which is important both economic and military. Back then in the cold war they have Egypt in their side but no longer when Egypt defeated by Israel. And then Turkey ability to shut down Bosporus strait on their will. Syria is their last hope. Cutting it will prevent Russia from having any influence in the region but they wont give it up easily.

Originally Posted by Ithekro

What is the state of Russia's allies these days? It has been a long time since the end of the Cold War and their rebuilding process from the late 90s to present. Who is left that will back them if this gets out of hand (and hopefully non-nuclear).

BRIC

Originally Posted by Ithekro

The trouble might be 2017 and whoever the new US President is. Do any of the candidates seem even remotely reasonable if Russia pushes in Syria?

None. Only Donald Trump want to allow Russia to keep Syria, the rest of them even Bernie want to either invade or nuke Russia. But I don't think Donald Trump idea of letting Russia to have Syria well received by other Arabs.

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Is it even "pushing" if they were invited?

I don't see the issue of the Syrian government seeking military aid from their biggest ally. Why should anyone complain, if a government asked for help, and obtained it? Why should the Syrian government be punished for wanting to be helped?

It is a big Issue to other Sunni government, like Turkey and Saudi Arabia who has been founding FSA and eventually ISIS.

You see you make war to make friend. War is necessary for international relation. Just hope it was locally contained, not to drag others into it. But if Russia involved, then it will going to be really big.

[Ithekro]

Haven't heard of BRIC before. That's a new one for me. Though my last political science class was early 2001 and I think the last one that dealt with the way the world was working was 2000 as we were still talking about the Euro as a new thing and the concept of the European Union and United States having to hold together to counter China's economy by basically now. Russia was a mess and considered a non-issue at that point.