Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (March 11, 2011)

[Evil_Sephiroth]

AIEA said again that radiaction level continuosly fall down near Fukushima...

Fukushime daiichi is more similar to thre mile island...and definitivly is close to impossible obrati same result of Chernobyl..

Ok it's not a good thing..but is wuite different from what the terrible wester mass media try to say (a Chernobyl 2 OMGOMGOMGOMG)

[RRW]

70% chance that a Magnitude 7.0 earthquake will occur in the same place before March 16th at 10:00 AM local time.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by rrw

2b is okay for year at least until japan become stable.

different from Kobe. japan are more prepared on this one (thought tsunami will caused more damage on agriculture and land instead of high rise building which Japanese now strengthen it )

like i said before it will be hurt japan economy for short term (say 1 year) but after that japan economy is bounced back which can make the become 2nd strongest economy again.

considering trend we see pretty much it is safe to speculate this

I don't know lol. With rising food prices, inflation from the lost decade stacked with that from the subprime crisis, PLUS the rising cost of energy thanks to zenga-zenga, I seriously doubt 2b is enough.

The $2b has to last for at least 4-6 months since they have to construct quake-proof buildings which might take longer to build. The abovementioned points are simply going to make the cost of rebuilding much higher subsequently.

In trading, there is something called the 6-month rule, in which a major news event will take 6 months for the real results to surface. This market delay might give the government a window of opportunity to get materials at spot prices (which may be much lower than later), but there is too little room for error because Japan has a high standards and cost of living.

[RRW]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

I don't know lol. With rising food prices, inflation from the lost decade stacked with that from the subprime crisis, PLUS the rising cost of energy thanks to zenga-zenga, I seriously doubt 2b is enough.

The $2b has to last for at least 4-6 months since they have to construct quake-proof buildings which might take longer to build. The abovementioned points are simply going to make the cost of rebuilding much higher subsequently.

In trading, there is something called the 6-month rule, in which a major news event will take 6 months for the real results to surface. This market delay might give the government a window of opportunity to get materials at spot prices (which may be much lower than later), but there is too little room for error because Japan has a high standards and cost of living.

i just double checked the source. it seem the now preparing 2b and expected to increased. so pretty much this is just for to help japan to back to stable (basically mean this simply cleaning up. not included replacing building etc)

[Jinto]

Originally Posted by rrw

25% is BIG and most of power shortage is come from disaster area like Sendai. sure many of infrastructure is demolished but 25% is quarter of japan (the damage of disaster is barely that big)

that why the starting Rolling blackout so that they can focused on disaster area

But it is necessary, especially at night time. Rescue operations need the energy for the lighting.

Originally Posted by rrw

about your debate. currently reactor one is under control. pressure is been released and radioactive is down. look doesn't mean pressure is been released saying that the reactor is exposed to open air. is not like the reactor suddenly open

I never claimed it was exposed to open air. Thats what Tri-ring was trying to interprete into my post. What I was saying is, that it cascaded its way into the environment from the inner containment to the outer and then the outer containment blew away.

My argumentative chain is like this:

The outer containment's explosion is most likely a result of oxyhydrogen exploding inside the outer most containment.

If oxyhydrogen is in the outer containment, there must be a H2 source. The most likely H2 source is the core containment. Under high temperatures the inner coolant (water) reacts with the zirkonium in the fuel/moderator rods:

Zr + 2 H2O => ZrO2 + 2 H2.

However, this reaction requires tremendous temperatures. Temperatures that are likely reached in a (partial) melt down of the rods (not the whole reactor, just the rods). If these rods melt down however, they expose the radioactively long living fuel to the coolant (now a mixture of H2, ZrO2 and H2O). Typically the H2 will be at the ceiling of the inner containment because it not as dense as the H2O. This however, further reduces the cooling capacities of the top of the core containment. So, the in a sense, partial melt down (only parts of the rods melt), is at the top of the core containment. This is where the H2 is, and hence it is very likely that the H2 gets very contaminated with isotopes of the fuel (which are also exposed at the top).

When this process is going on, and the pressure reaches critical limits, the inner coolant must be vented off partially in order to prevent worse things happen (like a breach of the inner containment). You can call this a malfunction by design. However, you can as well call it what it is: for the moment of the release of the inner coolant the inner containment was not intact. Purposefully not intact.

Now, under normal conditions, the released coolant is caught in the outer containement. Typically, it is expected to be just activated water vapor, that means water that contains a higher ratio of tritium. However its possible to let this decay into normal water vapor using special treatment.

However, it is very likely that the released coolant was not just water vapor but the fission by-product contaminated H2. One of the nastier isotopes that can be released this way is Caesium 137.

The inner containment was certainly closed after the pressure was released, but the contaminated coolant is now in the outer most containment, the last casing that keeps it away from the environment.

Now lets assume they released H2, and the H2 was contaminated with Cs 137 and it mixed with the surrounding air into oxyhydrogen, then all that was needed now is enough heat to make the contaminated oxyhydrogen explode. At this point all the containments are more or less contaminated already.

When the outer containment was blown away, most of the contaminated inner coolant was released into the environemt. But still, the highest contamination should remain inside the reactor containments in this order:

1) core containment - steel (most contaminated)
2) pressure release system (severly contaminated)
3) inner concrete containment (severly contaminated)
4) outer containment - now blown away (contaminated)

What they do now, is to flood the contaminated containment (my guess is either the inner conrete containment or the outer containement). But there will be radiatioactive isotopes in both anyway, so it is not important to know that in details.

There won't be a continuous (over a longer period of time) release of the Cs 137 and other fission by-products as in the case of Chernobyl. But that doesn't make the already released material go away.

It will be lingering there in the surrounding areas for years to come. Radioactivity is nothing that is harmless until you reach a certain dosis. It is always a game of probability when you are exposed to it. There is natural radioactivity, background radiation that can cause leukemia and cancer in you at any given time with a certain probability. If you add to the natural radiation the radiation from the fission products of the powerplant (that btw. is not equally distributed over an area) this probability can only increase. The question that remains is, how much does it increase the risk.

And personally I wouldn't trust the officials in this matter. If you live next to such an accident and you find out, that you were lied at or they merely miscaclulated the risks ... in a few years from now. Then it might already be too late and you have leukemia/cancer. Of course you could still argue then, that it was beause of the natural radiation and not from the power plant... but personally I am not into gambling so much, that I would want to stay in that region.

Originally Posted by rrw

unleash if government is lying IT IS A FACT! yes staying away from nuclear reactor is obvious action. but is not as dangerous as you think

Well, what do I think? Do I think there is imminent danger? No. So, we basically agree on that part. But I am more concerned with long term results.

[RRW]

wait so let me get this clear. are you saying inner containment is broken or what? one sentenced if you can. no need for epic explanation

[SaintessHeart]

I did some trading analysis and discussed it with a couple of my friends working in banks this morning. We based it on the simple idea of money flow, so it is mostly fundamental and nothing technical.

Money is flowing into Japan according to the forex charts (anything against the JPY was dropping, so which means money is flowing into the country from all directions), so this means the JPY is highly valuated. But the problem is -overvaluation-, which caused the US subprime crisis because people are thinking that the USD has strong backing of assets.

The overvaluation can be due to the homes being rebuilt, but one has to know that these homes are not for sale, so it means that there are absolutely no profits earned. One might argued that the construction firms are the ones being paid, so technically a profit is still being earned, however the bidding process for government construction projects are usually reverse bids or at generally low market prices with business incentives applied to the construction business when operating in Japan.

Energy and food prices are pretty high right now, so the money flowing into Japan might be flowing out once the mass-purchasing begins. I have yet so see which rate is faster, so I probably need a week or a month to be able to do a more critical analysis.

[Jinto]

Originally Posted by rrw

wait so let me get this clear. are you saying inner containment is broken or what? one sentenced if you can. no need for epic explanation

No its not broken, it was opened for a brief period of time though. This is what I call malfunctioning by design. It had to be opened/vented to stay intact, which caused it to be not intact (on purpose) for a brief period of time. However, the stuff that is inside the core containment is most likely is broken and partly melted.

[I_am_Kami]

The to aru majutsu no index light novel author illustrator and staff for the anime is all safe.

http://r-s.sakura.ne.jp/

[RRW]

Originally Posted by Jinto

No its not broken, it was opened for a brief period of time though. This is what I call malfunctioning by design. It had to be opened/vented to stay intact, which caused it to be not intact (on purpose) for a brief period of time. However, the stuff that is inside the core containment is most likely is broken and partly melted.

i see. look here. the reactor indeed partly melted. however it in containment. there is no malfunctioning on the design (to be honest japan nuclear have high standard. there is reason why it survived hundred of quake for 40 years). reason why there is radiation on pressure because the pressure is from inside the nuclear which also already been filtered.

by the way can you make your post less complicated

[Zetsubo]

My question to the Anit-Nuclear groups: What happens when humanity eventually develops fusion power ?

Are they going to protest that too ?

I got wind that these reactors were originally marked by TEPCO for shut down and retirement, before the earth quake and tsunami. Is this true ?

[Jinto]

Originally Posted by rrw

i see. look here. the reactor indeed partly melted. however it in containment. there is no malfunctioning on the design (to be honest japan nuclear have high standard. there is reason why it survived hundred of quake for 40 years). reason why there is radiation on pressure because the pressure is from inside the nuclear which also already been filtered.

Lets take a different example, maybe you'll understand this:

Imagine you have a balloon that is filled with poison. Imagine the balloon can withstand high temperatures, but it cannot take too much pressure. Now, imagine the poison becomes very hot and is increasing the pressure to the balloons hull.

Imagine there is a release valve at the bottom of the balloon, that releases the contained material (poison) until the pressure is within the allowed levels, so that the balloon is not rupturing (and possibly releasing all the material/poison that is inside of it).

Now if you defined, that the function of the balloon is, to never release any poison. What do you call it, when it has to release part of the poison, to prevent its own destruction (and complete malfunctioning). Thats what I call malfunctioning by design. It had to be not intact for brief period of time (releasing poison against its defined purpose) to stay structurally intact. You can also call it a trade off. However, the result is, that it still released poison in the end.

Originally Posted by rrw

by the way can you make your post less complicated

No, since the matter is complicated. I can't help it, nor is english my first language.

edit:

@Zetsubo:

fusion power is by way of camparison much safer then fission power in a case of emergency (that there is less fuel inside, and that the fusion will stop immediatly if the fuel becomes "dirty" in an accident is only one reason)

[RRW]

Originally Posted by Zetsubo

My question to the Anit-Nuclear groups: What happens when humanity eventually develops fusion power ?

Are they going to protest that too ?

I got wind that these reactors were originally marked by TEPCO for shut down and retirement, before the earth quake and tsunami. Is this true ?

are want to start Nuclear flame war here (i am supporting nuclear power anyway)

about the reactor thing IIRC the planned to upgrade it this year. i am thinking after this quake they decide to retired it anyway

[MakubeX2]

Food for thought :-

Is any American here, especially the ones living in California, prepared for a disaster of that scale ?

[RRW]

Originally Posted by Jinto

Lets take a different example, maybe you'll understand this:

Imagine you have a balloon that is filled with poison. Imagine the balloon can withstand high temperatures, but it cannot take too much pressure. Now, imagine the poison becomes very hot and is increasing the pressure to the balloons hull.

Imagine there is a release valve at the bottom of the balloon, that releases the contained material (poison) until the pressure is within the allowed levels, so that the balloon is not rupturing (and possibly releasing all the material/poison that is inside of it).

Now if you defined, that the function of the balloon is, to never release any poison. What do you call it, when it has to release part of the poison, to prevent its own destruction (and complete malfunctioning). Thats what I call malfunctioning by design. It had to be not intact for brief period of time (releasing poison against its defined purpose) to stay structurally intact. You can also call it a trade off. However, the result is, that it still released poison in the end.



No, since the matter is complicated. I can't help it, nor is english my first language.

it seem you just explain what just happening in last 24 hour. but with bit of exaggeration.

by the way my english is also not 1st but my writing style is simple.

[Solafighter]

Before - After satelite photos

https://picasaweb.google.com/1180792...3600944/Japan#


http://www.examiner.com/natural-disa...=30773646#main

[RRW]

Volcano Shinmoedake in the southwest errupted




Hiromitsu Arakawa’s tiny home in the town of Minami-soma was torn from its foundations by the first wave of the tsunami that crashed ashore Friday afternoon, the defense ministry said. Mr. Arakawa saw his wife slip away in the deluge, and he clung to the roof as the house drifted away. He was discovered late Sunday morning, still on his roof, 9 miles south of his hometown and 9 miles out to sea

[monir]

Originally Posted by rrw

Volcano Shinmoedake in the southwest errupted

We saw that coming considering Japan is home to one of the most volcanically active region in the world.

Can I also ask people to hold those debates about the consequence of fission for a later time, or at least till the dust settle? The bad news for the Japanese people are piling up without adding any other incentive. When things are really really bad, all we can do is to stay positive, hope against hope. These type of debate is for people who are not in the midst of this chaos. This type of debate also won't encourage the people who can use every ounce of encouragement at this very bleak time.

Keep them in your prayer and well wishes and do what you can to help them. We will have plenty of time talk about the rest later. They are not out of it yet.

[Kyero Fox]

i had to open my big mouth -_-

[Ithekro]

For that scale disaster? No. No one can be prepared for 10+ meter waves after a nearly 9.0 earthquake. My preparedness is living about 20 miles inland and 30 meters above sea level.