International Saimoe League 2012

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Remember the current format is new to this year. It has not been fully tested to see what happens after a cycle.

A test is not necessary to know some things about this system. Some things are structurally-based, as I'll get to later on in this post.

And besides, a full year for a test isn't bad.

If Kanade had won the crown last year as expected, she would be in Stella by default and not interfering with Nova results.

You'd still have 2nd-Year girls curbstomping new girls even if Kanade wasn't there.

Not that a single top character can shift everyone that much.

People tend to focus on the top, especially on the top. Getting to be the top would be a good experience for a new girl. It would help her strength.

This isn't even as change vs ststus quo argument. This is a "if you are going to change things, at least let the changes be tested before you decide to change them again" argument.

They are being tested, right now. And some of us don't like what we're seeing, and we can see further similar problems down the line.

I've explained why that is. Instead of getting into this meta-level debate over "tests", it would be nice if people would address the actual structural-based points I have raised. Those structural-based points will be valid no matter how long this "test" goes on for.

What is the point of having a system if you change it every year without seeing if the results work for all the changes? It was pretty flat out obvious that the high tier 2011 girls would dominate Nova.

My point is that it doesn't matter who dominates in Nova if you go with the two-year approach. Either way causes problems. It's a structural defect of the format.

If 2nd-Year Girls dominate, then that limits the ability of 1st-Year Girls to develop a following, which undermines the entire point of the current format.

If a 1st-Year Girl takes the division by storm (like a Kanade) then people will naturally want to see her go head-to-head with strong vets in her 2nd year. Under the current format, that simply can't happen, and it will be disappointing to many people. Again, this is a structural certainty due to the way the system is set-up. We don't need to "test it" to know this.

It's a classic Catch-22 situation. One that can be avoided if ISML switches to an one year system.

But come 2013, the 2012 girls will not be at as much a disadvantage, if they have worth.

But they also will have wasted much (if not all) of their "prime" simply getting to the top of Nova alone. The staggered approach limits how fast a new girl can rise. It effectively limits change.

Have some faith in what has been crafted but not fully tested.

It's not a matter of faith. Tightly-structured systems can only give certain outputs - If next year features a new Kanade-level girl, then she's stuck in Nova for two years, and there's an obvious negative there. Period. Again, we don't need a "test" to know this.

There will always be girls on the bottom of the list.

And I think it's better to change them up as much as possible so at least the girls at the bottom of the list are fresh faces.

[ion475]

You'd still have 2nd-Year girls curbstomping new girls even if Kanade wasn't there.

It's more of the fact that the Top 7 all finish in Top 16 last year WITH the veterans around. A 8th finish 17th (Victorique, although she's bound to fall), then you have Mato who's more or less Nova since her "true" anime comes out within this year.

If 2nd-Year Girls dominate, then that limits the ability of 1st-Year Girls to develop a following, which undermines the entire point of the current format.

If a 1st-Year Girl takes the division by storm (like a Kanade) then people will naturally want to see her go head-to-head with strong vets in her 2nd year. Under the current format, that simply can't happen, and it will be disappointing to many people. Again, this is a structural certainty due to the way the system is set-up. We don't need to "test it" to know this.

Your whole argument about 2nd year girls is just that they gain familiarity b/c they were around last year. But I've yet to see such cases. Weak girls ARE weak and yes, Top 7 are all 2nd year but 6 out of 7 are Top 16 last year (Kirino is the exception, but she's only 12-2 b/c she has faced nobody). Where am I getting to? It's not like the top returning girls in Nova right now only beat up new girls, they have already beat a bunch of veterans to the curb last year and are THAT strong, and the new girls, much like the veterans, are going nowhere for the most part.

Of course, this whole time and I'm still going back to my arguing point against a 1st year only system - "Unpredictable matches doesn't necessarily draw excitement". Weaklings v. weaklings are that - weak.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by ion475

Your whole argument about 2nd year girls is just that they gain familiarity b/c they were around last year.

No, that's not my argument. My argument is that whether 2nd year girls dominate, or a 1st year girl dominates, you have problems either way. I already clearly pointed out why you have problems either way.

My argument is that the two-year approach creates a Catch-22 situation which the one-year approach would not create.

With the one-year approach, new girls get a chance to truly shine and gain a following. Furthermore, with the one-year approach, new girls who take ISML by storm only have to wait a year to compete with strong vets. A "new Kanade" (which is not an impossibility, it could one day happen) wouldn't need to languish pointlessly in Nova for two years if we went with an one-year approach.

Of course, this whole time and I'm still going back to my arguing point against a 1st year only system - "Unpredictable matches doesn't necessarily draw excitement". Weaklings v. weaklings are that - weak.

Unpredictability is inherently exciting. Does anybody here honestly think differently?

And weakness is perceived on the basis of won-loss record and stats. And Wins vs. Losses is a Zero/Sum game.

So if, say, Kyouko had a .500 record (from defeating other new girls that aren't currently in the Nova Division), she wouldn't look so weak any more, by sheer virtue of the fact that she would now have a .500 record.

Your weaklings vs. weaklings fear would never materialize in any truly perceivable way.

[Last Sinner]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Unpredictability is inherently exciting. Does anybody here honestly think differently?

Those trying to win the Fantasy League probably do.

Regardless of what you sample, there will always be a select few that dominate, a midfield and a stragglers section. And as your sample size gets bigger, the variation/unpredictability will usually lessen. Unpredictability mainly comes from changes in who votes from fatigue.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Last Sinner

Those trying to win the Fantasy League probably do.

Why?

And what about those of us who don't care about winning the Fantasy League? Are we just chopped-liver?

Regardless of what you sample, there will always be a select few that dominate, a midfield and a stragglers section.

And that's exactly my point to ion475!

Unpredictability mainly comes from changes in who votes from fatigue.

Unpredictability comes with first-time ever matches. The more brand new, 1st-year girls you have, the more first-time ever matches you have.

[ion475]

Triple_R: I did misread your point...

As far as unpredictable - it goes both way. Tier 1 v. Tier 1 matchups are both unpredictable (for the most part...) and exciting. Tier 6 v. Tier 6 matchups are unpredictable, but for the most part, do people really care who win? Hack, not even a mid-tier v. mid-tier matchup generate that much excitement (Using this year's example, Elsie v. Ayase would be fairly unpredictable. But a win by either is not going to generate that much buzz...)

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by ion475

Triple_R: I did misread your point...

It takes a big person to admit something like that. Kudos to you for it.

As far as unpredictable - it goes both way. Tier 1 v. Tier 1 matchups are both unpredictable (for the most part...) and exciting. Tier 6 v. Tier 6 matchups are unpredictable, but for the most part, do people really care who win? Hack, not even a mid-tier v. mid-tier matchup generate that much excitement (Using this year's example, Elsie v. Ayase would be fairly unpredictable. But a win by either is not going to generate that much buzz...)

Well, what I find personally, is that an unpredictable 5th or 6th tier match can somewhat make up for a predictable 1st Tier match (which does occur sometimes, of course).

Now, you raised Elsie vs. Ayase. I agree, a win by either is not going to generate that much buzz. You know one reason why? Because we already have a very good idea of Ayase's strength due to her being around for over a year now. So unless she pulls off a major upset (or someone pulls a major upset on her), tight matches involving her aren't necessarily exciting.

I think this would be different with an all-first year girl match though. Because then these tight matches would be more helpful in determining how strong the new girls are relative to one another.


Now, all of the above aside, my point when it comes to won-lost record is that more new girls isn't going to mean more bottom tier match-ups - It just means that some new girls will rise up a tier or two (as other new girls take her place in the lower tiers), making her seem a bit stronger in the process.

[Sackett]

1 year vs 2 years is missing the real argument I think.

There are several different arguments in favor of:

Nova = never been in ISML before
Stella = been in ISML before

(Notice that this is not the same as Nova = 1 year old series, which I think is very important point.)

1: The first argument, and the one I'm thinking more and more is a key problem, are characters like Shinobu, the Fire Sisters, and Hecate. These are characters who were secondary characters in an older season of a show, and then when they get a season that focuses on them they get enough nominations to get into ISML... they end up facing all the Stella characters?

How is that fair? I think Shinobu would be having a much better year if she was over in Nova. Characters that are new to ISML are the ones that need their own division, and a time to develop their own ISML fanbase.

Now granted Nova will be mostly brand new characters, but shouldn't secondary characters from an old series that got a big boost from a spinoff or second season also be allowed a time to shine in Nova?

I can even identify a few characters that this could happen too: Uiharu from Railgun (because you know there is going to be another Railgun, and Uiharu never really got her own arc like Saten); Kongou Mitsuko also from Railgun, who has a much bigger role in the manga, which might get her more screen time in a later season; several girls from The World God Only Knows who turn out to be reoccurring characters instead of one arc girls (this assumes a 3rd season, which granted is not the most likely, but the anime did break even, so you never know for sure).

I think it makes more sense for these types of characters to be in Nova.

2: The argument that being a second year gives an advantage in Nova. An advantage that could either stunt the growth of a fanbase first year girls (under one theory), or result in second years always dominating (under another theory). Both make Nova less interesting.

3: It means really strong first year girls like Kanade and Ruri are trapped in Nova for two years instead of getting to go on to Stella. If their series does not get another season, they might never get to be in Stella at their peak level. Plus we miss out on a more interesting Stella division.

4: Finally, what was the main reason for dividing into Nova and Stella anyway? The point that I remember was to make sure there were new faces in ISML. A way to increase the variety instead of seeing the same faces.

Well if Nova is restricted to characters that have never been in ISML, then there will always be 32 new characters every year in ISML.

Under the current method there will always be less new characters in ISML, because there will always be some girls in Nova who are in their second year. If variety is the true goal, then Nova = new to ISML is the way to go.

It also will eventually result in a Stella that is a "the best of ISML" division instead of "girls from old series" division.

Originally Posted by ion475

Okay, let say you remove all returning girls from Nova. That means 13 new slots. Then using prelim results and I'll fill in those 13 slots...
1 & 2 - Mami & Madoka (Madoka)
3 & 4 - Shirayuki & Reki (Aria)
5. Tomoka (RKB)
6. Ika-chan (Ika Musume)
7. Alice (Kamimemo)
8. Misaki (Kaichou wa Maid-sama)
9. Tsugumi
10. Shinobu (She would qualified for Nova if using the "Never been here" criteria)
11-13 = Mayuri? Kirika (C3)? Ayumi (Kaminomi)? Dalian? Haruka (Amagami)? Ohana (Hanasaku)?

The only difference I really see is even more Madoka girls and even more Aria girls. #5-#7 are actually way up top on my personal list (aka personal bias).

The thing is, yes, I would rather see Mami, Tomoka, Ika-chan, and Alice getting in (Instead of...cough, Iwasawa who has been hated ever since last year and Sora), but it's a fact that they didn't generate enough excitement to get out of prelim in the first place.

I might point out that the nominations would have had different outcomes too. We'd probably see the Fire Sisters in the mix as well.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

It would be better if it was just the previous year, period. That would give a true newcomer a chance to be the star of her division, which in my mind is a lot more helpful than this odd idea of somehow gaining "worth" by getting to be the latest curbstomp victim of an Angel Beats! girl.

In my experience, there's three things that can shift power levels (and hence "worth") in ISML:

1) Building up fame/notoriety through winning a lot.
2) Having a currently airing anime featuring that character in question.
3) Not having been featured in an anime in a looong time (hence gradually weakening over time).

Letting a new girl dominate a division could cause 1 for her - Getting curbsomped by Kanade won't. 2 and 3 will have their impacts regardless of division setup.

I would point out that it's also hard on a character like Shinobu or the Fire Sisters, when they have to go up against strongly established ISML characters in Stella instead of getting a chance to grow in Nova.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Sackett

1 year vs 2 years is missing the real argument I think.

There are several different arguments in favor of:

Nova = never been in ISML before
Stella = been in ISML before

(Notice that this is not the same as Nova = 1 year old series, which I think is very important point.)

Ok, yes, I agree.

I got so caught up in the "one year" and "two year" debate (due to the terminology that was being used) that I forgot about this factor that you rightly raised.

Yes, I completely agree with you on what would be best for Nova and Stella.

So, basically, I stand by the arguments I've made in the last few pages, but by "first-year" and "new girls" I mean "first year in ISML" or "new girl for ISML". Even if the girl in question isn't new to anime, if she is new to ISML, she should go in Nova, agreed.


tl;dr I fully support Sackett's stand on this issue, and advocate for the same changes as what he's advocating for.

[RegalStar]

Kuroneko won.

That's all I need to say.

[hinakatbklyn]

A 100 vote difference from Shana over her closest competition...
But Ruri beats Taiga by just as much and holds off both Shana and Taiga by less than 1/2 a percentage point to win Amethyst. A surprisingly excellent result!

[ion475]

Congrats Kuroneko. The votes is certainly close, which benefits the 3rd overall finisher in Kuroneko due to her SDO lead.

Saber certainly surprise me with the amount of vote she's getting, though. Okay, votes going to Shana probably hurt Taiga a little bit (I mean, it's 5 votes margin, so vote splitting DO matter). No matter what, though, I expect Saber to finish at Yui-nyan level but she's hanging with the pack.

As for the exhibitions...
Exhibition 1 - Victorique is certainly falling, and Kirino is steady = Kirino win
Exhibition 2 - Seriously, Haruhi? HARUHI? HA-freaking-Ruhi? Mio is millions times more moe but it's Haruhi that won? SERIOUSLY?
Exhibition 3 - Meh group is meh, you can tell recognition is the solo factor in Ritsu's win...
Exhibition 4 - Holo is so close, but Ikaros somehow squeeze one out (I guess she's 2nd in a bunch of places...)
Exhibition 5 - Meh...
Exhibition 6 - Meh...
Exhibition 7 - Uguu is seriously being forgotten...
Exhibition 8 - Hard to argue against the Zombie girls since they're actually moe. The picture helps also. And Hyouka is not exactly a moe anime...(Chitanda is kawaii, but doesn't have enough moe element)

[Sackett]

So neither a three-peat nor a step by Shana to winning every necklace.

Oh well. Congrats to Ruri.

[Triple_R]

Lovely pic of Kuroneko. Good work, KholdStare.

For me personally, the best thing was seeing Haruhi edge out a win over Mio (who herself would have been my 2nd or 3rd choice in that match).

[HasuMasu]

Err, is that a temporary poster?

I believe the same thing happened with Yuki last year.

[Ichuki]

Originally Posted by ion475

Congrats Kuroneko. The votes is certainly close, which benefits the 3rd overall finisher in Kuroneko due to her SDO lead.

Saber certainly surprise me with the amount of vote she's getting, though. Okay, votes going to Shana probably hurt Taiga a little bit (I mean, it's 5 votes margin, so vote splitting DO matter). No matter what, though, I expect Saber to finish at Yui-nyan level but she's hanging with the pack.

As for the exhibitions...
Exhibition 1 - Victorique is certainly falling, and Kirino is steady = Kirino win
Exhibition 2 - Seriously, Haruhi? HARUHI? HA-freaking-Ruhi? Mio is millions times more moe but it's Haruhi that won? SERIOUSLY?
Exhibition 3 - Meh group is meh, you can tell recognition is the solo factor in Ritsu's win...
Exhibition 4 - Holo is so close, but Ikaros somehow squeeze one out (I guess she's 2nd in a bunch of places...)
Exhibition 5 - Meh...
Exhibition 6 - Meh...
Exhibition 7 - Uguu is seriously being forgotten...
Exhibition 8 - Hard to argue against the Zombie girls since they're actually moe. The picture helps also. And Hyouka is not exxactly a moe anime...(Chitanda is kawaii, but doesn't have enough moe element)

For Haruhi maybe people are more familiar with her than Mio is my guess or Mio is having a "tiara effect".

[ars89]

Congrats to Ruri

[Rajura]

And Holo gets screwed over again...

Sooo tired of these multi-group, second place finishes.

Ikaros isn't that moe...

[Team Rocket Elite]

Shana pretty much costs Taiga the necklace here. Well, Taiga could have won anyways if her fanbase just put a little more effort into the match but they didn't.

Taiga pretty much costs Shana the necklace here. Well, Shana could have won anyways if her fanbase just put a little more effort into the match but they didn't.

It's still a pretty nice job by Shana to win the group despite Taiga being in the group. It was a good try by Yuki to take first place but she fell short.

Kirino ends up winning her match easier than I expected. Victorique does quite well in taking out Rin. Victorique has looked quite a bit better as of late.

Unsurprisingly Mio and Haruhi totally waste. While in second place, Mio get three times as many votes as third place. Mio vs Haruhi pretty much went the way you would expect a one on one match between the two to go.

Ritsu does quite well in trashing her opponents.

Holo really does seem to do better in multi way matches. Unfortunately, in the past it only seemed to bump her up to Ikaros level. This time, it fell a bit short of repeating that feat.

I had pretty high expectations for Chitanda Eru and Ibara Mayaka and they failed them spectacularly. I guess we'll have to wait a bit longer before Kyoani manages to put out another strong Saimoe character. I wouldn't mind seeing Chris and Ariel again. I'm curious to see if they are surprisingly strong. They would need to be quite a bti stronger than Haruna before Eru and Mayaka start to look decent, though.

[KholdStare]

So basically, we all know Kuroneko isn't the strongest out there, but the Shana/Taiga split made it happen. The question is, will Shana and Taiga yield the last 3 necklaces to Mikoto, Eucliwood, and Yuki?