International Saimoe League 2012

[ion475]

And results are out...

1. Niku didn't even reach 5000 against that group of weaklings. Sad, VERY sad.
2. On the other hand, Biribiri, Shana, and Taiga all went over 5000. Shana is the only one that's in a group that's not extremely weak, though.
3. And my complaint start. Seriously, what's with those results in Nova anyway?
Group 7 - Okay, Victorique actually win against Kurisu? Not that I'm unhappy, just surprised. On the other hand, though, she is the same girl that only lose to Biribiri in last year's JST b/c of stupid fakes...
Group 8 - Poor Akarin, getting ignored as usual. Shoko gets a LOT more love than I expected, though.
Group 9 - Mato gets 4000+? But Elsie only like 3000? Come on...
Group 10 - No love for Poplar is one thing. No love for Yamada either? On the other hand, Ayase is getting a LOT more love than I expected.
Group 11 - Not much comment, the group is weak outside of Niku and she still can't get over 5000...On the other hand, last year's 0-49 in Laura actually finish 4th in this group...
Group 12 - Seriously, Iwasawa gets more vote than Haqua? SERIOUSLY? On the other hand, Madoka girls will crash and burn in no time, when your suppose ace can't even dominate this group of weaklings...(I mean, Homuhomu 3700 > Iwasawa 3100? And Iwasawa is 7-42 last year...)

At the end, still same complaint as last round - what's with people wanting to make ISML 2012 a repeat of the boredom of ISML 2011? I mean, new girls not winning is one thing. New girls not even winning against last year's ultra weaklings is just sad.

On the other hand, maybe the vote is just too spread out for different new girls...

Of course, if this continues, Kanade might as well just go 35-0 again this year in Nova...

[Chaos2Frozen]

Stella 1 -> Just as intended

Stella 2 -> Wow, for sure I thought Hanekawa would be safe...

Stella 3 -> Just as intended, but poor Fate

Stella 4 -> Alice... It was a long shot but still...

Stella 5 -> No comment

Stella 6 -> No comment

Nova 7 -> Just as intended

Nova 8 -> LOL, 'good' results

Nova 9 -> Horizon...

Nova 10 -> Kirika... But at least Irisviel and Ayase made it...

Nova 11 -> Surprised that Riko actually made it...

Nova 12 -> Airi... Well at least Haqua...

[ion475]

Chaos: You know that this is not elimination, right? There's no "making it" here, and elimination only begin in Phase III of prelim, which is FAR away...

[RegalStar]

When I counted arena totals, it seems that Stella generally have a total vote of about 17ks while Nova arenas generally have 16ks. It reinforces the theory that people simply don't know about the newcomers yet, which is a bit of a relief.

[Chaos2Frozen]

Originally Posted by ion475

Chaos: You know that this is not elimination, right? There's no "making it" here, and elimination only begin in Phase III of prelim, which is FAR away...

Sorry, force of habit Yeah I know it's not elimination

[hinakatbklyn]

Since no one can get eliminated yet, I'll use the results to see who will make it concerning my favorites, and who is still in contention.

Personal favorites with a good chance at making the regular season (from the 1st 2 days):
Kanade, Gokou Ruri, Hasegawa Kobato, Nadeko, Charlotte Dunois (5 Hanazawa reps already)
Mikoto, Nakamura Yuri, Yui-nyan, Azusa, Mio Akiyama, Hinagiku

Still in contention:
Sakura Kyouko, Erio Touwa, Fear, Konjiki no Yami, Rin Tosaka, Last Order, Kyou, Shiina Mafuyu, Nakagawa Kanon, Kirishima Shouko, Haqua

[Triple_R]

Well, I guess that's the death knell for iDOLM@STER.

Homura's victory in Nova 12 is actually a bit disappointing. Asami was one of the weaker ISML 2011 girls, and Homura's victory over her was by a significant amount, but not massive.

Similarly, the top Hagani girls look strong, but not top-tier powerhouses. Solid mid-tiers perhaps.

Shinobu beating out both Tsumugi and Fate for second place was the most interesting thing for me, as I don't think Shinobu was in ISML 2011 as a regular competitor. This suggests something of a Nise bounce that could lift her up a bit.


These results are pretty disappointing for me personally, but I kind of expected that this round...

[Ichuki]

At this rate it looks really awful for the new girls minus Sena and Kobato here.

[Rajura]

Late, but as promised...

ARENA 01: Erza Scarlet [Hecate] Hyūga Hinata [Index L. Prohibitorum] Misaka Mikoto Suigintō Yūki Mikan
ARENA 02: Hanekawa Tsubasa Hoshina Utau Izumi Konata Kushieda Minori Nagato Yuki [Saten Ruiko] [Shiina Mafuyu]
ARENA 03: [Fate Testarossa] [Kamio Misuzu] Kanzaki Kaori Kotobuki Tsumugi Nakano Azusa Okazaki Ushio Oshino Shinobu
ARENA 04: Alice [Haibara Ai] [Hiiragi Kagami] Hinamori Amu Sakurano Kurimu Shana Shirai Kuroko
ARENA 05: Aisaka Taiga [Holo] Kotegawa Yui [Kuronuma Sawako] Maria Suiseiseki Tainaka Ritsu
ARENA 06: [Fujibayashi Kyō] [Hiiragi Tsukasa] Illyasviel von Einzbern Katsura Hinagiku Kinomoto Sakura Lala Satalin Deviluke Ryūgū Rena
ARENA 07: Astarotte Ygvar [Makise Kurisu] Miki Sayaka [Nakagawa Kanon] Shiina Mayuri Shinonome Hakase Victorique de Blois
ARENA 08: Akaza Akari Anjō Naruko [Kanzaki H. Aria] Kirishima Shōko Kōsaka Kirino [Minato Tomoka] Oshimizu Nako
ARENA 09: Amami Haruka [Dalian] Elucia de Lute Irma Hasegawa Kobato Horizon Ariadust (P-01s) Kuroi Mato [Yarizui Sen]
ARENA 10: Aragaki Ayase Irisviel von Einzbern Shiomiya Shiori [Ueno Kirika] Uryū Minene Yamada Aoi [Yuzuriha Inori]
ARENA 11: Amaha Miu [Haruna] [Hoshii Miki] Kaga Rin Kashiwazaki Sena Laura Bodewig Mine Riko
ARENA 12: Akemi Homura [Hakamada Hinata] Haqua du Lot Herminium Iwasawa Asami Nanasaki Ai [Sena Airi] Toshinō Kyōko

[Last Sinner]

Those results suggest Sena, Kurisu, Kobato, Homura and Inori are mid tier at best. Tomoka's 9k last year was merely a fluke from a scenario enforcing voting. Idolmaster is not a factor at all. Maybe a couple can go deeper past the regular season. But this looks like Stella domination in 2012 the way things are going.

Which is fine by me. I didn't like 2011 and neither did the majority of my IRL friends.

[Eater of All]

Only one thing needs to be said. KURISUTIIIIIIIIINAAAA

[FlareKnight]

Well just another reminder how far down Rozen Maiden has gone with Suigintou barely edging out Hinata to grab second last, but time will do that for you. Of course shows how many of these I'm missed since didn't think Fate had fallen like that either. Could be some internal issues with Mafuyu beating out her president Kurimu . Didn't expect Victorique to get the most votes in her group, but good job. Also nice job by Aria. As expected Sena ran away with her group, but congrats to Riko for getting second.

Overall not too bad of a result for my votes .

[Sphire]

So, since I have time and no life top 32 via votes for both groups as of round 1 are:

Spoiler for Nova:

1. Tachibana Kanade (no one even comes close)
2. Yui
3. Eucliwood Hellscythe
4. Hasegawa Kobato (decent result, but kinda weak group)
5. Gokou Ruri (in a somewhat strong group)
6. Kousaka Kirino
7. Kashiwazaki Sena
8. Kuroi Mato (highest 2nd place)
9. Victorique de Blois
10. Yuzuriha Inori
11. Kanzaki H. Aria
12. Akemi Homura
13. Charlotte Dunois
14. Nakamura Yuri
15. Makise Kurisu
16. Iwasawa Asami (wtf)
17. Haqua du Lot Herminium
18. Nakagawa Kanon
19. Touwa Erio
20. Elucia de Lute Irma
21. Irisviel von Einzbern
22. Honma Meiko
23. Kirishima Shouko
24. Mikazuki Yozora
25. Gasai Yuno
26. Kaname Madoka
27. Sakura Kyouko
28. Aragaki Ayase
29. Fear Kubrick
30. Mine Riko
31. Haruna
32. Shiomiya Shiori (4th in group)

Next 6 likely to challenge for final few spots:
Kasugano Sora - Himeji Mizuki - Konoe Subaru - Matsumae Ohana - Suzutsuki Kanade - Ika Musume

My thoughts: top 27 will probably get through. Last 5 slots up for grabs really.

Spoiler for Stella:

1. Shana
2. Misaka Mikoto
3. Aisaka Taiga
4. Nakano Azusa
5. Nagato Yuki
6. Suzumiya Haruhi
7. Akiyama Mio
8. Katsura Hinagiku
9. Saber
10. Sengoku Nadeko
11. Hirasawa Yui
12. Senjougahara Hitagi
13. Louise Valliere
14. Tousaka Rin
15. Illyasviel von Einzbern
16. Oshino Shinobu
17. Hiiragi Kagami
18. Last Order
19. Sakagami Tomoyo
20. Furukawa Nagisa
21. C.C.
22. Ikaros
23. Holo
24. Izumi Konata
25. Fujibayashi Kyou
26. Asahina Mikuru
27. Shirai Kuroko
28. Ibuki Fuuko (4th in group)
29. Hecate
30. Index L. Prohibitorum
31. Hirasawa Ui
32. Sanzen'in Nagi (4th in group but likely should be higher)

Next 6 likely to challenge for final few spots:
Konjiki no Yami - Ichinose Kotomi - Nymph - Kushieda Minori - Erza Scarlet - Tainaka Ritsu

My thoughts: Top 25 will probably get through + Nagi. Also, probably more girls than just those extra 6 have a chance at the remaining spots.

So, it'll be interesting to bring this back up once we get our regular season candidates, and see how close or far round 1 was for predicting. Of course, it may not be wholly accurate, so forgive me if a mistake was made.

[AbZeroNow]

There weren't any big shocks to me this time. I am a little surprised that Inori is one of the strongest of the new girls, but then again Guilty Crown is a popular series(even if it isn't a series that ever plan on watching). Haganai girls have been pretty strong. I wonder if Haganai is this year's Angel Beats (although I doubt any of the girls is at the Kanade level of domination). At least it seems that Haqua and Elsie have a chance at making it, and Kanon and Shiori had decent showings too(something I noticed. Kami Nomi apparently is popular in Vietnam, Mexico and South America. Kanon and Haqua won in those countries and Elsie won Vietnam.)

Japan apparetly went against the ISML consensus with Akari and Aoi both being tops there.

Glad that Illya is apparently stronger this year, and Iri had a good showing too(and they both carried Russia).

[Last Sinner]

I understand that Inori is popular...

I understand that people think she's hot...

How the hell is she moe? She reminds me of AV stars more than anything.

Haganai won't be this year's Angel Beats. The adaptation was botched. Sena and Kobato will do relatively well but the fact that show amounted to stuff-all in character development in the last few episodes ruined any epic moments outside of the first 4-5 episodes.

If Kurisu can't beat someone like Victorique already, she's mid tier at best. I can't see the concept of people not having watched Steins;Gate by now being that common a factor. And the fact she's a non-typical tsundere will hurt her chances as much as is strengthens them.

[Team Rocket Elite]

The Fire Sisters failing to make preliminaries was a huge error on the part of the nominators. Myself included in that error since I didn't nominate them either. Looking at how strong Oshino Shinobu is, Karen and Tsukihi may have ended up missing the regular season by only a handful of nominations. Illyasviel put up one hell of a performance and managed to take down Kyou. That's quite the improvement from losing easily to Index last year. A pretty disappointing performance by Fate here. She'll need to work harder if she wants to make the regular season. However, nothing good awaits her if she does make the cut so maybe it would be better for the original champion to finally take a rest. Homura doesn't look like she's quite able to live up to her exhibition match with Kuroneko. However, Homura does seem quite a bit stronger than last year.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Last Sinner

I understand that Inori is popular...

I understand that people think she's hot...

How the hell is she moe?

Vaguely Rei Ayanami-esque personality. ISML voters always seem to go for that (i.e. Yuki Nagato and Kanade doing very well over the years). Guilty Crown's relatively low level of popularity (compared to giants like NGE, tMoHS, and Angel Beats!) might actually be holding Inori back a bit.

Inori is typically presented as the quiet, soft-spoken girl, regardless of her flashy and somewhat fiery appearance/outfit.

Haganai won't be this year's Angel Beats.

Agreed. Squeaking out over Kuroi Mato is respectable, perhaps, but it's nothing that impressive. And while Sena dominated her arena, she had fewer total votes than Kobato did.

If Kurisu can't beat someone like Victorique already, she's mid tier at best. I can't see the concept of people not having watched Steins;Gate by now being that common a factor. And the fact she's a non-typical tsundere will hurt her chances as much as is strengthens them.

Sadly, I think you're right.

[RegalStar]

Mato has an ongoing series that's quite largely talked about everywhere, though. Also, I do think lack of viewing is a factor still for some of the new entrants, given that we're still in the massive arena phase. Many of the newcomers may do better once we get to phase II and III.

[Demi.]

Wishful thinkinggggg!

It was already a foregone conclusion that the Nova group would be considerably weaker than Stella(and the few strong older Nova [2011] characters will be stronger than any of the new Nova [2012] characters). And if ISML has taught anyone anything, it's that the vast majority of new characters consistently wane in strength throughout the regular season. A few stay the same, but rarely do they gain strength. Unless one of the new characters has more content animated for them...That would help their strength.

More voters this contest gets, the more it will continue to regress into popularity contest status...Which seems to be this contests main goal. Facebook widget and all.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Originally Posted by RegalStar

Mato has an ongoing series that's quite largely talked about everywhere, though. Also, I do think lack of viewing is a factor still for some of the new entrants, given that we're still in the massive arena phase. Many of the newcomers may do better once we get to phase II and III.

Despite doubling her screentime, Mato didn't really seem any stronger to me. Maybe Elsie, Kobato and Matou are all stronger than I think. I don't think many new characters that aren't from an ongoing series will get much stronger from here. Most characters are at their peak during the weeks just after their series ends and fade from there (like Victorique did). If that timeframe has already passed, generally you just get weaker until you get a new series. There are exceptions like Taiga who get stronger years after their series ends but they are rare.