[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[ALPHA-Beatrice]

Indeed, let us do so . I am ALPHA-Beatrice. A Witch created by the Great Lady Lambadelta in the 21st century to reveal the truth of the games. In discussing Lady Erika, we must reference to the 5th game and the accusation that Natushi and Krauss hid Kinzo's death.(Actually, Battler also made this claim at the start of the 4th game).

However, neither Natsuhi nor Krauss lied about Kinzo's death

Think about it, we know from Natsuhi's perspective That she believes Kinzo's still alive. So why would she lie about something she believed? It might not be factual, but not intentionally so.

So, all I the Great Alpha Witch has to do is prove that Krauss didn't lie, right? Well, let's first look at the reason why Krauss would lie about Kinzo's death.

It's said that Krauss would lie about Kinzo's death if Kinzo in fact didn't choose him as the successor, but rather Rosa(in the case of Rosatrice) or one of the other siblings. However, I have to state this in red.

Kinzo would most certainly never hand the position over to Rosa.

We know this because from Eva's perspective, she had always seen herself as superior to Krauss. And even Kinzo admitted as such. But Kinzo rejected Eva on the grounds that a woman is to bear a man's child and that the Ushiromiya successor is to be a male.

We also know Kinzo to look unfavorably towards the other siblings. In fact, if we're to believe any of 'Kinzo's' testimony he most favorably looked at Natsuhi, rather than any of the other siblings

We can then simplify it like this(Eva Voice): Ushiromiya Kinzo would have never chosen any of the adult siblings as successors.

I, for the record am not denying Rosatrice. I'm denying that Kinzo chose any of the adult siblings as a successor, and especially above all Rosa.

There's one other point of contention, which arose in the 4th game. "Kinzo" proclaimed to the other siblings, that he would choose one of their grandchildren as the next heir, bypassing all of them. However, the two siblings left in this case were Maria and Battler which frankly doesn't make sense from Kinzo's perspective.

Ignoring how Ryukishi portrays Battler as the Endless Sorcerer for a minute and looking at the facts of the story, we know Battler to have effectively disowned the Ushiromiya name for at least 6 years. In that time span, Hideyoshi had a successful middle-class business and George was a fine young man.

If Kinzo were to choose a successor among the grandchildren, Ushiromiya George would be the most obvious choice. This is seen in the magical scene where George chooses to kill all of the other siblings and Gapp pronounces him the next Demon King

Yet George was chosen as one of the 13 sacrifices, why? Well, let's go back to I believe it was either the first or second game, Dr. Nanjo advises Kinzo on writing a will. Kinzo at first utterly denies the proposition, but after some convincing, he begins to write it.

But I present the theory that he never completed it.

The Seven Stakes of Purgatory pronounced in Red: That 'Ushiromiya Kinzo' died at the starting time of all games

In other words, Ushiromiya Kinzo died at the First Twilight. Ignore all magical interpretations, ignore all scenes. Kinzo died At the very first twilight

Now, Lady Beatrice was stopped from making a proclamation. She was about to say that 'no one died an accidental death.' Since there wasn't an accidental death, that means someone died a natural death.

That someone is Kinzo! **Lambda cackle**

If Kinzo died a natural death, let's say a heart attack No one would benefit more than Krauss. Krauss has absolutely no reason whatsoever to conceal Kinzo's death!

However, a natural cause of death isn't the same thing as not denying of homicide In other words, I can prompt a heart attack by agitating the heart in some way. The victim died of a heart attack, but it was still a homicide.

Here's where I'll use Blue for the majority of my thesis: It's known that the servants are incredibly obedient, it's also known that Shannon isn't well-versed in the ingredients of food.

Rosa manipulated Shannon into adding some kind of addictive(whether it be sweetner or something else.) That may have been fatal to Kinzo, causing him to die a 'Natural Death' but it was still a homicide.

Then afterwards, At some point, Kinzo's body was discovered by Genji(this occurs during the First Twilight). Rosa meets up with Genji and tells him that she'll personally take care of Kinzo's body. Since Nanjo is Rosa's accomplice, he gladly obliges. Genji is generally obedient to the siblings, but due to Rosa's killing the Kuwadorian Beatrice it's also possible that Genji feels responsible to Rosa, more than the others. Rosa steals the Head's Ring from Kinzo and disposes his body in the furnace, possibly to hide his being poisoned.

With this theory, I've firmly established Rosatrice, I've also utterly shattered Erika's theory that Krauss and Natsuhi were lying about Kinzo's death.

Krauss didn't know of Kinzo's death and Natsuhi earnestly believed in Kinzo's well-being, before and after death!

My Golden Truth is effective .

[GreyZone]

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Now, Lady Beatrice was stopped from making a proclamation. She was about to say that 'no one died an accidental death.' Since there wasn't an accidental death, that means someone died a natural death.

This is no red truth. Even if you claim that that was about to be said, it wasn't.


Also...

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Krauss didn't know of Kinzo's death and Natsuhi earnestly believed in Kinzo's well-being, before and after death!

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented. Where was it ever indicated that Krauss is unaware of Kinzo's death?

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

My Golden Truth is effective .

No, it is not, until Knox's 8th is satisfied. And as you are not the gamemaster, your golden truth holds no power on this board.
Instead: Kinzo died a natural death caused by alcohol poisoning, just as Nanjo predicted.

Sometimes the simplest answer is actually the right one...


Also about Kinzo choosing from the grandchildren: As you said he only accepts males, so with that you could already ignore Jessica and Maria. Then there are George and Battler. While what you said about George is true, you should realize how many parallels there are between Battler and Kinzo. It is indeed possible that Kinzo sees himself in Battler, which could potentially be a reason to make him the head. Also Battler was one of the people in the story, shown to have the potential to solve the epitaph. Additionally, the portrayal of Battler is questionable in the first four games and espacially in the first two games.

[AuraTwilight]

Man I always love when people pseudo-RP as witches and shit. *Popcorn*

[Dormin]

I don't think red truth should be even used in discussion if it isn't a direct citation from the game. I like how many people have been using it previously for some things that are totally opinion based.

[GreyZone]

Originally Posted by Dormin

I don't think red truth should be even used in discussion if it isn't a direct citation from the game. I like how many people have been using it previously for some things that are totally opinion based.

Well you can use red truth for things that are 100% sure deductable by logic, for example me saying "this is no red truth" is possible, because Beato never finished that sentence, so it cannot be considered a red truth. As long as I don't say anything like "she was not about to say that" in red, then I am fine.

But aside from that, I completely agree with you. Reds are thrown around too much. I wonder how many forum posters would be trapped in logic errors by now

[fg204]

The biggest flaw in Erika's initial theory in EP5 that I noticed was the timeline regarding Rosa's "murder". Upon further analysis, it seems pretty clear that nobody could have committed the crime according to Erika's specifications. Consider these red truths given in EP5:

1. From 1:00 AM until the discovery of the crime, it was impossible for the crime to occur in the cousins' room!!

2. Of all the people in the dining hall, not one of them left the dining hall until 1:00 AM...!

3. During the short break at 1:00 AM, the first two to leave the dining hall were Rosa and Eva. Until Eva returned, everyone in the dining hall remained there. After seeing Rosa off, Eva went to the waiting room and sealed it. Of course, she did not enter the room at all at this time.

4. After George's death, his corpse was never moved!
After Jessica's death, her corpse was never moved!
After Maria's death, her corpse was never moved!
After Rosa's death, her corpse was never moved!

#1 implies that if there was any "crime" at all that happened in the cousins' room, it must have been committed BEFORE 1:00AM. #2 and #3 imply that Rosa left the dining all at 1:00AM and, therefore, could only have arrived at the guesthouse AFTER 1:00AM. #4 precludes the hypothetical "crime" from being committed anywhere else other than in the cousins' room (where the "corpses" were "discovered"), since otherwise the "corpses" would have had to be moved back into the cousins' room after the culprit committed the crime.

Therefore, how is it possible that the culprit commit the crime BEFORE 1:00AM when Rosa was not even present in the guesthouse until AFTER 1:00AM?

Erika explicitly says that after playing cards with the cousins until midnight (confirming they're still alive at 12:00AM), she got the key to the guesthouse library from Gohda in the servant room, sealed the servant room (and also Kumasawa's room), and went with Nanjo to the guesthouse library and stayed there discussing mystery novels until 1:00AM. Afterward (i.e. AFTER 1:00AM), she then met Rosa (who had just returned from the mansion) on the way back to the servant room where she noticed the seal still intact (providing an alibi for Gohda) and spent the rest of night until 3:00AM with Nanjo and Gohda in the lounge (where she'd be able to notice anyone entering the second floor). Therefore, the time from midnight to 1:00AM is the only hour when Erika would not be able to notice someone from the mansion sneaking into the guesthouse. Here's a more succinct timeline:

12:00AM Erika confirms cousins are still alive, borrows guesthouse library key from Gohda, seals Kumasawa and Gohda's rooms, heads to library with Nanjo

1:00AM Erika heads back to Gohda's room (servant room), meets Rosa along the way, notices Gohda's room's seal still intact, heads to lounge with Gohda and Nanjo and stays there with Gohda and Nanjo until 3:00AM

3:00AM Erika seals both Gohda and Nanjo before heading to her room to listen to Battler sleep all night (alibi for Battler)

7:00AM All seals intact until they were broken in the morning, providing alibi for Kumasawa, Gohda, and Nanjo.

Even if the culprit entered the 2nd floor from 12:00AM to 1:00AM and hid there, the red statements I brought up make it impossible for the crime to be committed after 1:00AM (otherwise it would have said something like "From 1:00AM until the discovery of the crime, it was impossible for the culprit to enter the cousins' room" which leaves open the possibility of the "crime" being committed after 1:00AM). But Erika's initial theory against Natsuhi make it necessary for the culprit to wait until Rosa had returned and commit the crime after 1:00AM in order for Rosa to be dead the next morning. This contradiction can only be resolved if we consider some ridiculous definitions of "discovery", "crime", or "the cousins' room" that would make the red text all but meaningless.

I guess the one possible exception would be if we were to define "the cousins' room" as "the entire universe outside of where the crime was committed", similar to (but not quite the same as) Renall's epic solution to the EP6 logic error (ROFL at "The microbacteria of Tau Ceti VII were in the cousins' room"). But that idea here just doesn't quite workout very well considering how the "corpses" must NOT be "discovered" in "the cousins' room" that morning in order for them not to be moved after their deaths. The best logical explanation is that the crime that directly resulted in their deaths occurred after the "corpses" disappeared the following morning.

[Renall]

The red text isn't meaningless though, in the sense that it's true: There wasn't any crime. That's the point of it. There's no contradiction because nobody was murdered during the period Erika is constructing an argument around. She's just chosen to ignore (I guess) that conclusion and jump to a different one (i.e. "Natsuhi has no alibi during the only period where a crime could have been committed -> a crime appears to have been committed -> a crime was committed -> Natsuhi must have done it").

What's annoying is that nobody just explicitly points this out. Yet another reason the trial segment is one of the low points of the series even for a logic battle, as nobody makes the right arguments and bullshit is permitted or prohibited seemingly at random.

[ALPHA-Beatrice]

Originally Posted by GreyZone

This is no red truth. Even if you claim that that was about to be said, it wasn't.

Then, can you present another theory as to what Lady Beatrice would've said? She damn near finished the sentence before Ronove covered her mouth. The only reason it never ended up being a Red Truth is because of Ronove's interference, I merely stated the facts.'

It also happens to be a fact that denies the Witches Side. Since a 'Natural Death' occurred, that means that it could've been done without a Magical method. That one crack would allow Battler to conclude that all murders were 'natural' and thereby done by Humans.

Originally Posted by GreyZone

Also...

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented. Where was it ever indicated that Krauss is unaware of Kinzo's death?

His very defiance itself, as I said earlier If Kinzo dies a Natural Death, the very last person that has to(or would want to hide it) is Krauss since he becomes the successor. A natural death even escapes Kyrie's persecution of him in the 3rd game.

Since Krauss has no logical reason to hide it, Knox's 8th has been satisfied. My logic is a reasonable deduction anyone could've reached. On the contrary, allow me to ask you a question: When was it ever shown that Krauss was purposefully being deceitful?

Definition of purposefully: Knowingly withholding information or clues with an intended goal in mind.

I'd argue it's Erika's theory that flies in the face of Knox's 8th! It's never shown, just speculated miserably by the family members and Erika.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

No, it is not, until Knox's 8th is satisfied. And as you are not the gamemaster, your golden truth holds no power on this board.

Lady Beatrice used the Gold Truth to confirm to herself the validity of her own Magic. At that time, Lady Beatrice wasn't acting in the role of the Game Master. A Golden Truth is simply an "accepted truth" by Humans(or in Beatrice's case, an accepted truth among the participants)

I used the Gold Truth because My theory establishes without any reasonable doubt that Krauss had absolutely no reason to conceal Kinzo's death, nor was he truly aware of his death.

I'll elaborate more as it regards Krauss's actions on the game board.

We know that Kinzo's door has an automatic lock, we also know only Genji possesses the key to actually enter this door. In other words, it would have been impossible for Krauss to truly oversee Kinzo and especially during the heated Family Conference during the two days of Rokkenjima.

We also know for a fact that Krauss had tried on numerous occasions in the First Game to have Kinzo come down to the family conference. That very confrontation confirmed in Krauss's eyes that Kinzo was alive.(At least for the time he knew)

You could argue that Krauss faked his confrontation with Kinzo, but this is highly implausible. Krauss is shown to be a no-nonsense, serious type of guy. And as demonstrated before, Krauss has no real reason to fear or even suspect that Kinzo would supplant him with one of the siblings.

If Kinzo died a natural death, Krauss has the most to gain. Unless of course the will was completed, which I again heavily doubt it was.

But even if it was completed, allow me to address the issue of Kinzo's "decision" of Battler right here in this segment.

What connections did Ushiromiya Battler have to Kinzo?We know for a fact that Battler betrayed Shannon. If you believe in Shkanontrice or the Yasu theory, we know this to be the entire reason for the mass murders!

Kinzo, on the contrary was in love with Beatrice to the point of being obsessed. While we can obviously disregard the whole reincarnation via tubing. I believe the Kuwadorian Beatrice may very well have been a result of incest between Kinzo and some relative


Irregardless of whoever Kuwadorian Beatrice's mother might actually be, if not incest then Some kind of mental defect occurred.

I mean, the girl's barely responsive. And when she does answer to Battler(Kinzo) it's more akin to a child.(We also saw this in the third game).

Whereas Ushiromiya Kinzo is interested in the Occult, Battler's main objective is to deny everything.

Literally, the only connection between the two is Beatrice's bringing him along for the ride. Battler has neither the love-struck feelings, nor the desire to even truly acknowledge anything about Lady Beatrice.

Oh and on the 4th game in particular: By that point, the epitath no longer had any meaning. What Kinzo wanted to find out, was who among the grandchildren had the most resolve. Which, clearly was proven to be George.

Yet George was among the 13 candidates, and I doubt that it's due to some flimsy connection between Battler and Beatrice. Presuming that Kinzo's will wasn't followed, somebody sabotaged it.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Instead: Kinzo died a natural death caused by alcohol poisoning, just as Nanjo predicted.

Sometimes the simplest answer is actually the right one...

I had read that in Yasu's game, she proclaimed that Kinzo died in 1984. However, I'm not ready to accept it. While my Master Lambda-sama was in charge of the 5th game, it's heavily implied that Lady Bernkastel had plenty of input.

And we all know how much Bern loves to fictionalize things.(IE: The Kyrie Culprit "theory". Implausible, considering she died at the very first twilight in the first game.

However, that could be my theory as a reader, I merely wish I were a witch. So should I accept writer's authority as it regards the timing of Kinzo's death?

If I do, I still have a huge question: Why would Krauss want to hide his death? Why wait over 2 years to burn his corpse? Why would Krauss and Natsuhi care about 1986? Both Krauss and Natsuhi are about as anti-magical as you can get.(with the lone exception being her charm mirror in what, the 2nd game?)

[Dormin]

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Since Krauss has no logical reason to hide it, Knox's 8th has been satisfied. My logic is a reasonable deduction anyone could've reached. On the contrary, allow me to ask you a question: When was it ever shown that Krauss was purposefully being deceitful?

Definition of purposefully: Knowingly withholding information or clues with an intended goal in mind.

I still don't think this should be in red, is it just me or does anyone else find it annoying as hell? Maybe I take the truth values too seriously, even though umineko itself uses red "truths" sometimes in totally different context than "truth".

Also Krauss was deceiving all the time. His probably most important function in the story was hiding records of him stealing money. I think this kind of action is totally in line with your definition of being deceitful.

We also know for a fact that Krauss had tried on numerous occasions in the First Game to have Kinzo come down to the family conference. That very confrontation confirmed in Krauss's eyes that Kinzo was alive.(At least for the time he knew)

Wasn't it like, stated clearly in chiru that the death of kinzo was a huge ruse because krauss had been embezzling the money? Wasn't he waiting for money from the investments to kick in before announcing the death? Why isn't this a valid motive for hiding the death of kinzo? I don't see how krauss could have believed him to be alive and why kinzo should be alive in the game boards as it was heavily implied otherwise.

And we all know how much Bern loves to fictionalize things.(IE: The Kyrie Culprit "theory". Implausible, considering she died at the very first twilight in the first game.

And why is this relevant? Are you implying that dying on boards is somehow relevant? I think pretty much everyone died on the boards but depending on interpretation the boards can be seen as total fiction.

To be honest kinzo being alive could work as interesting theory, but I think it would pretty much mess up the game and collide with the reds.

[fg204]

Leaving aside all this complete and utter nonsense regarding Rosatrice as well as Natsuhi/Krauss's ignorance of Kinzo's death (based on a foundation of "reasoning" that's shakier than a bobblehead in the middle of an earthquake), the discussion over Erika's true motivations throughout EP5-6 is quite interesting.

The point I had been making was that upon thorough analysis, significant flaws can be found in Erika's initial theory regarding the first twilight of EP5. Furthermore, these possibly fatal flaws in Erika's argument do not even require the level of understanding that Battler achieves (presumably regarding Beatrice's true identity) in the Tea Parties and can largely be traced back to the inconsistencies in Erika's proposed timeline regarding Rosa's "murder". Though, it probably wouldn't have made for a very satisfying "End of the Golden Witch" if Battler had also noticed these flaws during the trial and hadn't pursued any further in the level of understanding that he achieved. Still, it would be interesting to consider how Erika/Bern/Lambda would have responded to these objections: would they continue the game in hopes of further conspiring to frame Natsuhi or would they just start over in the next game to keep conspiring to frame the innocent until Battler finally reached the truth?

As for Erika, I was initially under the impression that her main motivation throughout EP5-6 was pride, that as long as her theory is proven correct in the court of public opinion, the truth couldn't matter less. But after considering the glaring flaws in some of her theories as well as the obvious conspiracy between Erika/Bern/Lambda throughout these two episodes, serving to solidify Battler's understanding of the truth of the series, I'm left wondering if Erika was ever truly capable of independent action or thought/reasoning without the approval of Bern? It's not until the very end of the EP6 Tea Parties when Bern had already left the cathedral that the narration states (regarding Erika), "I'm not anyone's piece anymore. ... I can finally... control my own role...!!" (and then she proceeds to act like the same trollish villain that she had been since EP5, lol). Either way, we're left to speculate regarding exactly what Erika's true nature is outside of Bern's influence and whether it would be any different from how she's initially portrayed.

[GreyZone]

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Then, can you present another theory as to what Lady Beatrice would've said? She damn near finished the sentence before Ronove covered her mouth. The only reason it never ended up being a Red Truth is because of Ronove's interference, I merely stated the facts.'

He may have protected her from commiting a logic error. This makes the actual content, of what she was about to say, redundant.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

It also happens to be a fact that denies the Witches Side. Since a 'Natural Death' occurred, that means that it could've been done without a Magical method. That one crack would allow Battler to conclude that all murders were 'natural' and thereby done by Humans.

As long as Battler didn't directly refer to the body, Beatrice could have used the "sucession of titles" to dodge that attack and could even claim that "Kinzo didn't die by a natural death" in red.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

His very defiance itself, as I said earlier If Kinzo dies a Natural Death, the very last person that has to(or would want to hide it) is Krauss since he becomes the successor. A natural death even escapes Kyrie's persecution of him in the 3rd game.

The story showed clearly that even becoming the new head would still not release him from paying his siblings their part of the inheritance. Following that, his embezzelment of money could also be easily exposed.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Since Krauss has no logical reason to hide it, Knox's 8th has been satisfied. My logic is a reasonable deduction anyone could've reached.

The "logical reason to hide it" was just given in the previous paragraph

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

On the contrary, allow me to ask you a question: When was it ever shown that Krauss was purposefully being deceitful?

Irrelevant! Natsuhi was the one who wanted to protect the honor of the family. The story showed multiple times that Krauss was a loving and caring family father. With that in mind it is only natural that Krauss would help his wife to protect the family's honor. And his embezzelment of money behind everyone's back is "deceitful" as well

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Definition of purposefully: Knowingly withholding information or clues with an intended goal in mind.

OK, I agree with that. Krauss doing it to help Natsuhi, satisfies this definition, as well as Krauss doing it to hide the fact that there is no money for his siblings to squeeze out of him.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I'd argue it's Erika's theory that flies in the face of Knox's 8th! It's never shown, just speculated miserably by the family members and Erika.

It was shown by the narration itself. Even if it "could" be a lie, a more blatant exposition (or "clue") than directly by the narrative, aside from red truth, doesn't exist.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Lady Beatrice used the Gold Truth to confirm to herself the validity of her own Magic. At that time, Lady Beatrice wasn't acting in the role of the Game Master. A Golden Truth is simply an "accepted truth" by Humans(or in Beatrice's case, an accepted truth among the participants)

"It takes at least 2 people to create a universe" this could be seen as a metaphor for "it takes at least 2 people to create a gameboard". If we assume that they created their own little gameboard outside of the running "big" gameboard, then the older Beatrice could indeed fill in the role of the "game master". That scene did happen in an unknown place in the meta-world, so it is possible. And even if not: It did not influence the logic battle at all. Yours doesn't as well.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I used the Gold Truth because My theory establishes without any reasonable doubt that Krauss had absolutely no reason to conceal Kinzo's death, nor was he truly aware of his death.

It was indeed established! At least before I posted this *ahaha.wav*

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I'll elaborate more as it regards Krauss's actions on the game board.

We know that Kinzo's door has an automatic lock, we also know only Genji possesses the key to actually enter this door. In other words, it would have been impossible for Krauss to truly oversee Kinzo and especially during the heated Family Conference during the two days of Rokkenjima.

Why did he have to oversee a corpse? Also as I said, the one who did that was actually Natsuhi. Of course Genji was part of the "scam-group".

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

We also know for a fact that Krauss had tried on numerous occasions in the First Game to have Kinzo come down to the family conference. That very confrontation confirmed in Krauss's eyes that Kinzo was alive.(At least for the time he knew)

That scene was very likely an illusion and didn't happen at all, just like "Beato's and Virgillia's fight in the garden" from EP3 and "Natsuhi drinking tea with the family's alchemist Beatrice" from EP5. Bringing Kinzo to the conference was a lie to help Natsuhi protect the honor of the family and to appease the heated emotions of his siblings. (and to make sure no one find out about his embezzelment of money)

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

You could argue that Krauss faked his confrontation with Kinzo, but this is highly implausible. Krauss is shown to be a no-nonsense, serious type of guy. And as demonstrated before, Krauss has no real reason to fear or even suspect that Kinzo would supplant him with one of the siblings.

As said above, it simply didn't happen. He was scared of the vegenance of his siblings, should they find out that all the money from Kinzo is gone.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

If Kinzo died a natural death, Krauss has the most to gain. Unless of course the will was completed, which I again heavily doubt it was.

Having the siblings expose all of his money embezzlements, is certainly not equal to "most to gain"

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

But even if it was completed, allow me to address the issue of Kinzo's "decision" of Battler right here in this segment.

What connections did Ushiromiya Battler have to Kinzo?We know for a fact that Battler betrayed Shannon. If you believe in Shkanontrice or the Yasu theory, we know this to be the entire reason for the mass murders!

Kinzo, on the contrary was in love with Beatrice to the point of being obsessed. While we can obviously disregard the whole reincarnation via tubing. I believe the Kuwadorian Beatrice may very well have been a result of incest between Kinzo and some relative


Irregardless of whoever Kuwadorian Beatrice's mother might actually be, if not incest then Some kind of mental defect occurred.

I mean, the girl's barely responsive. And when she does answer to Battler(Kinzo) it's more akin to a child.(We also saw this in the third game).

Whereas Ushiromiya Kinzo is interested in the Occult, Battler's main objective is to deny everything.

Literally, the only connection between the two is Beatrice's bringing him along for the ride. Battler has neither the love-struck feelings, nor the desire to even truly acknowledge anything about Lady Beatrice.

Oh and on the 4th game in particular: By that point, the epitath no longer had any meaning. What Kinzo wanted to find out, was who among the grandchildren had the most resolve. Which, clearly was proven to be George.

Yet George was among the 13 candidates, and I doubt that it's due to some flimsy connection between Battler and Beatrice. Presuming that Kinzo's will wasn't followed, somebody sabotaged it.

Oh I just realized that this is completely irrelevant to both the "rosatrice vs shkanontrice" discussion and the "is Kinzo alive or dead?" discussion, so I will simply skip it as it would be waste of time to argue about that!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I had read that in Yasu's game, she proclaimed that Kinzo died in 1984. However, I'm not ready to accept it. While my Master Lambda-sama was in charge of the 5th game, it's heavily implied that Lady Bernkastel had plenty of input.

Before I answer that I must correct you first: You said "Kinzo died at the starting time of all games", and interpreted the "starting time" as the first twilight. The mistake you made was that it wasn't "died", but "is dead" instead. It was actually "Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games". Sure you can argue that "he died one second before the starting time of the game", but then we are back to Knox's 8th, as you have not given any clues yet, that show a certain time of death for Kinzo. I can still base everything on both the scene you just quoted and the very first scene in EP1 where Nanjo tells his prediction about Kinzo's estimated point of time of death. Also the "starting point" of the game was hinted to be the start of the first day, so 4th of October at 0:00, long before Battler reached Rokkenjima.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

And we all know how much Bern loves to fictionalize things.(IE: The Kyrie Culprit "theory". Implausible, considering she died at the very first twilight in the first game.

Can you proof that Bernkastel was the game master of the main game of EP7 (aside from tea party)? It is more likely (or at least just as likely) that Aurora was the game master.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

However, that could be my theory as a reader, I merely wish I were a witch. So should I accept writer's authority as it regards the timing of Kinzo's death?

Sometimes the most simple answer is the right one: Yes.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

If I do, I still have a huge question: Why would Krauss want to hide his death?

To win enough time to get back his money that he lost, to pay his siblings' share of the inheritance and by that also abiding Natsuhi's wish to "protect the honor of the family".

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Why wait over 2 years to burn his corpse?

Natsuhi probably said something along the lines of "we cannot simply burn the head's corpse or bury it somewhere in the wilderness! that would be too disgraceful! We have to preserve it for now!" or something along these lines. Of course during the conference in 1986 they had no other choice, or it was simply Yasu doing it out of her own convenience.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Why would Krauss and Natsuhi care about 1986? Both Krauss and Natsuhi are about as anti-magical as you can get.(with the lone exception being her charm mirror in what, the 2nd game?)

For the endless ninth time! Because of "family honor" and "money embezzlement"


I guess that should do it for the "kinzo is alive" part for now. If you think you can argue back, I still have a hidden ace in my sleeve and also A LOT of "Knox's 2nd" for every single invalid red truth that you wrote.

But I, the Chaos Sorcerer will for now leave you alone with all these counter arguments (don't forget the ones from Dormin as well!)

So I guess... good luck! *ahaha.wav*


Oh, I almost forgot:

I hereby announce that this is the longest post on this forum, that I made until now.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by fg204

Leaving aside all this complete and utter nonsense regarding Rosatrice as well as Natsuhi/Krauss's ignorance of Kinzo's death (based on a foundation of "reasoning" that's shakier than a bobblehead in the middle of an earthquake), the discussion over Erika's true motivations throughout EP5-6 is quite interesting.

The point I had been making was that upon thorough analysis, significant flaws can be found in Erika's initial theory regarding the first twilight of EP5. Furthermore, these possibly fatal flaws in Erika's argument do not even require the level of understanding that Battler achieves (presumably regarding Beatrice's true identity) in the Tea Parties and can largely be traced back to the inconsistencies in Erika's proposed timeline regarding Rosa's "murder". Though, it probably wouldn't have made for a very satisfying "End of the Golden Witch" if Battler had also noticed these flaws during the trial and hadn't pursued any further in the level of understanding that he achieved. Still, it would be interesting to consider how Erika/Bern/Lambda would have responded to these objections: would they continue the game in hopes of further conspiring to frame Natsuhi or would they just start over in the next game to keep conspiring to frame the innocent until Battler finally reached the truth?

As for Erika, I was initially under the impression that her main motivation throughout EP5-6 was pride, that as long as her theory is proven correct in the court of public opinion, the truth couldn't matter less. But after considering the glaring flaws in some of her theories as well as the obvious conspiracy between Erika/Bern/Lambda throughout these two episodes, serving to solidify Battler's understanding of the truth of the series, I'm left wondering if Erika was ever truly capable of independent action or thought/reasoning without the approval of Bern? It's not until the very end of the EP6 Tea Parties when Bern had already left the cathedral that the narration states (regarding Erika), "I'm not anyone's piece anymore. ... I can finally... control my own role...!!" (and then she proceeds to act like the same trollish villain that she had been since EP5, lol). Either way, we're left to speculate regarding exactly what Erika's true nature is outside of Bern's influence and whether it would be any different from how she's initially portrayed.

Essentially let's take your question (does Erika have free will independent of the role Bern gave to her?) and add it to mine (did Erika believe her Natsuhi culprit theory to be correct, or did she knowingly advance a falsehood?). Let's consider the following possibilities, just while we're on this subject:

• Erika didn't know her theory was wrong.
• Erika did know her theory was wrong, but had no problem advancing it anyway.
• Erika did know her theory was wrong, but had no choice in whether to advance it or not.

#1 and #2 require Erika have free will, obviously. #3 does not. #3 is easiest because she's just a pawn of Bern's and her behavior is dictated by Bern's whims. She need not be consistent because she's just there to do as Bern demands. I don't think this is likely, and I'll explain why in a bit.

#1 requires she be gullible, imperceptive, and incapable of considering flaws in her own evidence. It also requires that she have somehow failed to establish Natsuhi's alibi purely by accident or oversight despite going to extraordinary lengths to ensure everyone else was monitored in some fashion, and to have not noticed that she did this (assuming perhaps that Bern prevented her from doing so, she still ought to realize it).

#2 requires she be actively malevolent, as she has absolutely no investment in Natsuhi's guilt and no particular reason to think Natsuhi any more guilty than anyone else available to her. If she has free will, she may be doing it because Bern wants her to; we know that she sucks up to Bern unapologetically and is afraid of her wrath... which in and of itself seems to prove she has free will independent of Bernkastel, as a tool that Bern controls 100% would have no need to prove herself useful and worth keeping around.

However, is that really how Erika looks at truth? What does the text say?

Originally Posted by ep6, Erika

"...Without love, it cannot be seen? ...Hah. That's backwards. Because of love, you end up seeing things that don't even exist. ...It's nothing more than an illusion, one that no one except you can see, and one that even you can never touch. Without love, humans would never need to sift through truth and lies. Because we can see those, ...we doubt. We suffer. We cry out loud."

"...Right now, I am happy. ...Though it may be temporary, I have become the Witch of Truth. ...As I am now, ...I no longer need to worry about being tormented by non-red words."

Originally Posted by ep6, Erika Compares Quantity of Evidence

"<Good>. Blue and blue cancel each other out, but the number of pieces used to construct each is overwhelmingly unbalanced." When both opponents meet with the blue truth, the decision is almost always based on which side has more pieces of evidence, regardless of the actual circumstances. ...This is especially true in the human world. So, by the standard rules, Erika would win...

Originally Posted by ep6, Erika's Response To The Claim "I Still Love You"

"Not the red truth, so that's ineffective. Even if it was red, that'd be a stalemate. After all, I'd have no move to counter with."

Originally Posted by ep6, Erika Thinks About Winning

Erika had succeeded in crushing her opponent with the truth she espoused... that her former boyfriend no longer loved her and was cheating on her. ...After all, humans are not allowed to use ――――.

A splendid game, a splendid finish from a superior position.

Regardless of the truth of her opponent, Erika could win.

A splendid... victory.

Okay, so according to Dawn, Erika has realized that she can win a fight just by assembling more apparent evidence, but it doesn't matter because it can't prove her right. So she's growing from ep5, where she was apparently okay with doing that... but now... she isn't?

Originally Posted by ep6, End of Dlanor/Erika Conversation

"Even before you became Lady Bernkastel's piece, you truly were a splendid wielder of the blue TRUTH. ...However, Lady Erika. Humans are only allowed to use the blue TRUTH. And the only thing that can counter blue truth is red TRUTH. And humans are not allowed to use the red TRUTH. ...In that case, ...how should your opponent have shown his TRUTH?"

"...Who knows. ...Maybe he should have used that gold truth or whatever, which is supposed to be stronger than the red truth at times."

"...You certainly were the victor in that GAME. However, allow me to say this as a protector of the TRUTH."

"What? ...I imagine it's something unpleasant, so say it and go away."

"...YES. ...This game is your VICTORY. However, ...you still have not denied the six points of blue truth evidence that I showed to claim that I still loved YOU. ...Even you are HUMAN. You cannot use red truth to deny those POINTS."

"Later on, I used the detective's authority to have all 84 points transformed into red truth. By the power of my master...! I am human, yet superior to humans. A detective and a witch. I am the Witch of Truth, Furudo Erika. Any other questions? Parting remarks?"

"...I have NONE. ...In that case, please excuse ME."

Dlanor bowed and disappeared. ...After that, all that remained was a single Witch of Truth laughing off a bitter past with an equally bitter smile...

Right, so clearly Erika is definitely changing because she's understanding doubt. Why didn't she understand that before, anyway? Did she only just now connect her own past to her horrible miscarriage of justice the episode before? Where did this growth come from? Where were the hints of it in ep5? Why didn't it bother her before?

Originally Posted by ep6, Post-Logic Error With Lambda & Bern

"From my point of view, ...both the hell my master fell into, which could only be escaped by a miracle, ...and the hell you fell into, which I don't know about but could be escaped from with certain willpower... were 'hells made to be escapable'."

"Aha... So you say."

"I am the Witch of Truth. ...My hell was nothing more or less than the truth. ...When faced with the harsh reality of truth, no sort of willpower or miracle matters. I reached this place by overcoming that truth. ...I don't believe my power of withstanding the truth is in any way inferior to yours or my master's."

"And what is this 'power to withstand the truth'?"

"...Those who don't know cannot understand. Perhaps you two couldn't become Witches of Truth because you couldn't bear to look at it directly..."

"...Heh...heheheheheheheheheh. ...I'll forgive you for those impudent words. Letting them pass with a slight nod is my present to you for your recent victory."

---

Then, she understood. ...Bernkastel was also a witch running from boredom. If it caught up with her, ...she would remember. ...Those never-ending days of hell...

This is proof... that even my master still hasn't gotten over the pain and fear of hell. It means...that she lacks the power to withstand the truth.

...For the first time, ...Erika felt just a little disdain for her master.

I'm not even sure what this means but it seems to suggest that Erika is definitely growing away from Bernkastel due to a difference of opinion, right? I mean that's her whole deal leading up to the part where she dies, yeah?

Originally Posted by ep8, Erika & Ange

"I... like exposing the truth."

"I know that."

"I like exposing secrets, then watching those people turn pale as they wonder how I figured it out. ...That's when I know I've reached the truth, and it's a moment of ecstasy."

"There's something seriously wrong with you."

Oh nevermind it turns out Erika gets a sexual thrill out of exposing secrets and this is equivalent to truth for her now.

Originally Posted by ep8, Battler & Erika

"...Both Ange and I were Witches of Truth. ...So...just what was the difference between the two of us?"

"...Yes, what could it be?"

"I was...a witch who suffered through the truth. ...However, I turned my back from that truth. ...She, on the other hand, was a witch who continued to believe in her truth, even after learning the truth. ...If she was the real Witch of Truth, ...then what kind of witch was I?"

"That's right. ...You...aren't a witch."

"..."

"After all, you're the detective."

"...<Good>. ...I'd forgotten."

"We'll meet again, someday. ...Wherever there's a crime, the detective's sure to be there, right?"

"Yes. When another crime occurs in the Ushiromiya family, I promise to appear."

And also Erika was only ever a stock detective character, according to Battler, so none of that shit matters anyway.

...Seriously, what? Erika is a different character in her three appearances. She has absolutely no sense of remorse or repentance in ep5 and by all indications must have been pursuing Natsuhi just to accumulate the most evidence and prove her truth right because it's uncounterable (and Natsuhi's wriggling will be the most enjoyable). Except it was outright wrong and she seems to have enough free will to have known this and did it anyway. Then all of a sudden in ep6 she derives no enjoyment from that sort of victory. Then in ep8 she's suddenly an asshole again, and in the end she's sucking Bern's dick and hanging out with the Voyager witches like nothing ever happened.

The only conclusion I can reach is that #2 was true in ep5 and Erika was entirely fine with it... then suddenly she has an apparently-unmotivated attack of conscience in ep6 - none of which prevents her from arranging the Logic Error - then has another such attack at the end when Beatrice beats her, but in ep8 is basically right back to being the archetype she was before.

So, like Ange, this is another instance of a character in Twilight just outright being different from previously-established character growth (even if Erika's ep5 -> ep6 growth appears to make no sense and is basically betrayed immediately in ep6). Was this Erika 2.0, like neo-Beatrice? What was the point in musing over Erika's fate and whatnot at the party if this is a different Erika anyway? Was ep6-Erika's whole deal just an act with Dlanor? It sure doesn't read that way, and I'm pretty sure Dlanor meant what she said. Is it even a scene Battler could see? What about the part that says she felt contempt for Bern? That wasn't even on the board, so it must've been something Erika genuinely thought, and...

...argh, my head hurts.

[GreyZone]

Maybe Dlanor was a positive influence. In EP8 that was gone, as they had become opponents.

[AuraTwilight]

Maybe Battler was writing Erika nicer than she actually is? I mean, as the Territory Lord and being Genius Battler he's effectively on a higher meta-layer than she is so like.

[ALPHA-Beatrice]

Originally Posted by GreyZone

He may have protected her from commiting a logic error. This makes the actual content, of what she was about to say, redundant.

How so? If Beatrice is caught in a Logic Error, isn't it Battler's victory? It doesn't make it redundant, it proves there's a weak point in Lady Beatrice's theory.

Originally Posted by GreyZone

As long as Battler didn't directly refer to the body, Beatrice could have used the "sucession of titles" to dodge that attack and could even claim that "Kinzo didn't die by a natural death" in red.

You criticize my red for being weak, but then you propose such a weak Red Truth on the part of Lady Beatrice that we both denied, because we both know for a fact That Kinzo died a natural death


Even if Beatrice claimed the succession of titles theory, It doesn't change that a Natural Death occurred. At least one death can be explained without magic. It's basic assumption to go: "If one death was natural, logically that means all other deaths are logical or at the very least can be explained away logically and without magic."

Originally Posted by Greyzone

The story showed clearly that even becoming the new head would still not release him from paying his siblings their part of the inheritance. Following that, his embezzelment of money could also be easily exposed.

The "logical reason to hide it" was just given in the previous paragraph

I acknowledge the possibility Krauss was embezzling money from Kinzo. But I still don't resign.

Turn the Chessboard Over, we state that Krauss's reason for covering up Kinzo's death is because he embezzled money. Is Natsuhi keeping up her delusion for Krauss? The Golden Sorcerer Battler clearly stated at the end of the 5th game: That Natsuhi was pure and faithful

As such, there's no way that Natsuhi would purposefully manipulate her siblings, just to cover Krauss's behind. Is Natsuhi truly delusional? Knox's 8th! A case cannot be solved without presentation of evidence

It was never confirmed that Natsuhi is or ever was delusional.

If Krauss really did embezzle money from Kinzo, it makes even less sense for Krauss to allow Kinzo's corpse to be on the island on October 4th, 1986.(IE: The day of the conference).

The very last thing Krauss wants is for the Siblings to find out he was embezzling money, correct? So the very last thing Krauss would want at that time in 1984, is for the siblings to raise suspicion about him.

It would be more logical, presuming that Krauss was the embezzlement culprit to announce Kinzo's death in 1984, have him buried and establish trust as the Family Head. Eva's investigation is nowhere complete by this time, and it's entirely possible to move assets, etc overseas.

However, I don't believe Krauss embezzled money. Because the Ushiromiya wealth as a whole was drying out.

All of the Adult siblings were losing money hand and foot, Kasumi pretty much admitted this in her pursuit of Ange during the 4th game. The 'Glory' of the Ushiromiya family was shaky in 1986, and only got shakier after Rokkenjima Prime.

Gold is an Asset, not money. It cannot be used per say as bartender(IE: You can't take gold out of a ATM machine). Sure, you could convert it and trade for it. But it's confirmed that Jessica, Natsuhi and Krauss lived at the main island with Kinzo.

We could use the argument that Kinzo established some kind of bank firm at the island. Though it can't be proven, it is plausible with his assets. Provided they haven't dried out like I think they have.

How can I prove that the Ushiromiya wealth died out, other than the situation of the Siblings? It was mentioned specifically in the games that Kinzo could call upon a miracle, but the cost of that miracle was everything.(IE: It only happened once). Using a Real-World analogy, Kinzo probably had his fair share of initial successes to restore the Ushiromiya's wealth.

However, there wouldn't be a 2nd success, or a second wave of successes. And eventually, via giving away money to his entire family they ended up right back where they started.

That could be the true reason that Kinzo hates the siblings(IE: his children)!

In fairness, I'll now reveal a scene that I just recalled that prove that Erika's theory was partially correct. A witch should truly be honorable, even in defeat.

In the first game, Krauss reveals to Natsuhi that the Gold actually existed. This would prove that Krauss had a deceitful personality or at least intention.


**The Red Sword I created pierced my body, drawing blood. As I gushed out of my mouth, I smirked.**

However, this Red Truth will also prove Natsuhi's innocence without doubt.

Natsuhi was genuinely shocked and upset at the 'betrayal' of Krauss. That she fought on his behalf and honor, and yet he manipulated her even covertly.

But it's important to note that Krauss got that bar of gold through various sources. The original gold bar that Kinzo allowed a friend to examine. At no point is Krauss remotely aware of Kuwadorian or the mansion, and thereby where the gold resides.

I present a different theory surrounding the embezzlement. Krauss didn't(or rather, couldn't) embezzle Kinzo if his only real tangible asset was the gold. But rather, the Ushiromiya Family used the wealth it had and the pond dried up. When that pond dried up, the siblings concocted the scheme known as 'embezzlement'. If there was embezzlement, the entire family is guilty of it.

Well, I have to be careful. When I say 'Entire Family', I could've spoken of the Cousins, invalidating my Blue Truth. All of the Adult Siblings took on more than they could chew. This doesn't implicate the cousins in any way.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Irrelevant! Natsuhi was the one who wanted to protect the honor of the family. The story showed multiple times that Krauss was a loving and caring family father. With that in mind it is only natural that Krauss would help his wife to protect the family's honor. And his embezzelment of money behind everyone's back is "deceitful" as well

But then, why damage that said honor by engaging in embezzlement? Krauss himself said that he established business connections across Japan(I refuse to say the world, let's just say Japan for in all reasonable likelihood). There's no reason for Krauss to directly embezzle Kinzo(if in fact, he had any wealth remaining by 1984 as I speculate he didn't)

Originally Posted by Greyzone

OK, I agree with that. Krauss doing it to help Natsuhi, satisfies this definition, as well as Krauss doing it to hide the fact that there is no money for his siblings to squeeze out of him.

If Natsuhi's main goal in the Umineko story is to protect the honor and glory of the Ushiromiya family, then Krauss's embezzlement and deceit of even his wife is the furthest thing from helping Natsuhi.

And I've stated above my hypothesis, that the reason there's no money is because all of the siblings, including him soaked all the water out of the pond.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

It was shown by the narration itself. Even if it "could" be a lie, a more blatant exposition (or "clue") than directly by the narrative, aside from red truth, doesn't exist.

Red Truth accepted. However, I use it against you as well to establish the truth of my hypothesis.

I believe it was early in the First Novel(one of the earlier games, first or second, I'm not sure) that the narration pointed out just how charitable Kinzo was, and how much the Ushiromiya siblings relied on it for upstart capital. So, by the narrative, my blue theory is plausible.

The 'Narrative', as well as the white text used by the characters in the Umineko Story exist in a kind of warped space in the middle of the Red and Blue. In a sense, as a "Golden Truth" of the reader. We can choose to accept certain parts of the narrative or white text that's believable, or deny that which is seemingly implausible to us individually as readers.

Just as the Golden Sorcerer proclaimed there's no way to truly identify Kinzo's corpse, there's also no way to independently verify the truth of what happened. No matter how many bottles Maria/Rosa wrote, the catbox would always remain closed.


In this sense, I have to agree with Lady Bernkastel. Because we can't independently verify the truth, we cannot accept any of it as truth. Or in other words, Clair had hoped that someone in the world would understand her. But if she's not believable, how can she be 'understood'? Or, even if someone understood her, they wouldn't know if they truly did and could only speculate. There really is no hope in any of the many worlds for Clair/Beatrice(Rosa)

Originally Posted by Greyzone

"It takes at least 2 people to create a universe" this could be seen as a metaphor for "it takes at least 2 people to create a gameboard". If we assume that they created their own little gameboard outside of the running "big" gameboard, then the older Beatrice could indeed fill in the role of the "game master". That scene did happen in an unknown place in the meta-world, so it is possible. And even if not: It did not influence the logic battle at all. Yours doesn't as well.

Ryukishi himself proclaimed that the Gold could be used by the game's "pieces". Which would concur to the theory that the Golden Truth is an accepted truth of participants. However, the reason it can be inferior to red is quite simple: An Accepted Truth is inferior to the actual truth.

In other words, theories cannot replace actual fact. A theory that Man can defy gravity cannot replace the known fact that the Law of Pull exists. We're stuck on the ground whether we like it or not.

It might not have influenced the logic battle, but it gave us a clearer definition of the Golden Truth and its laws and how it works.

We're independent readers who exist both in and outside of the cat box at the same time. All of our theories may eventually one day pierce the heart of the truth. It might have been too early to use Gold for Krauss.

But even you can agree that I can use gold for Natushi. The Red statements from Battler, and facts from the previous games conclude overwhelmingly that Natsuhi didn't participate in Krauss's deception(if he did indeed deceive)

Originally Posted by Greyzone

It was indeed established! At least before I posted this
*ahaha.wav*

Not necessarily in the red text, and primarily by Yasu's theory. The closest we come is "Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead at the starting time of all games."

However, I now intend to make another argument to support my theory that Kinzo died on October 4th, 1986 before the Family Conference.

According to Ronove, my master Lambda-Sama set it at a 24:00 session. Kinzo could've only existed within this session(IE: Within the Games themselves). To declare Kinzo alive or dead outside of the two-day session would mean that Kinzo only existed outside the Cat Box.

Which is utterly illogical, wouldn't you say? One of the most important characters in the series, might as well not have been a character? And rather than pretending a dead man's alive for 2 years, it's much more logical to presume he died on the day of the Conference.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Why did he have to oversee a corpse? Also as I said, the one who did that was actually Natsuhi. Of course Genji was part of the "scam-group".

We've already solidly confirmed that Natushi is 'pure and faithful' and therefore isn't deceitful. However, we also know it hasn't been proven that Natsuhi is clinically insane.(She's the most critical of Jessica for her talking in a rough masculine manner. Hardly the type of ridicule I'd expect from an insane person(who generally doesn't care about perceptions. The crazies just are crazy)

I don't believe Natushi is deceitful nor insane. I believe she truly believed(or had reason to believe) in Kinzo's existence. We cannot deny for example that any of Natsuhi's conversations with Kinzo happened before he died. Giving the impression that he was still alive.


And I have proof of this hypothesis, the first game!(or was it the second?) Eva placed a note inside Kinzo's door, this was used to fabricate against Natsuhi. But what it proved was that Kinzo 'existed' at some point and then for some reason left the room. This scene, to me is an allegory. An allegory that Kinzo existed at the start of the game, then shortly afterwards died.(This incident happened at the First Twilight, and I believe before any murders were discovered. Though I could be mistaken)

Originally Posted by Greyzone

That scene was very likely an illusion and didn't happen at all, just like "Beato's and Virgillia's fight in the garden" from EP3 and "Natsuhi drinking tea with the family's alchemist Beatrice" from EP5. Bringing Kinzo to the conference was a lie to help Natsuhi protect the honor of the family and to appease the heated emotions of his siblings. (and to make sure no one find out about his embezzelment of money)

This lie however, wasn't close to a solution for Krauss or Natsuhi. By this point, the siblings had grown impatient with Krauss and Natsuhi's dancing around, and some temporary lie only brought them a little bit of time.



I also argue that if the first game isn't Rokkenjima Prime, none of the games can be Rokkenjima Prime. Because the first game is literally a time where the reader knew nothing of the Meta-World, or of Beatrice's existence.In other words, it's the closest thing to(and IMO it is) what happened during the actual two day crisis.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

As said above, it simply didn't happen. He was scared of the vegenance of his siblings, should they find out that all the money from Kinzo is gone.

And if they did an audit and compared their own financial records, it's just as plausible that they have themselves to blame for the Ushiromiya's downfall in my hypothesis.

At the very least, it can't be disputed that the other siblings are less than judge worthy characters themselves for wanting to grab inheritance money as their main means to solve their problems.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Having the siblings expose all of his money embezzlements, is certainly not equal to "most to gain"

Here, I'll reference the first game. In the siblings conditions, of the 20 million they thought to believe to have had in assets, Krauss would recieve 12.5 million. Also, Eva allowed Krauss to conduct the audit. As long as the siblings themselves could confirm the amounts matched up.

It wouldn't take much(if Krauss was indeed embezzling)to have the amount match up artificially with a paux-audit. Allowing him to get away with the majority of cash shares.

Hence, at no time did Krauss ever really show panic about the situation. In fact, it was always Natushi who acted indignant to the questioning. His position as successor basically made him the chicken watching over the hen house. The only way for the siblings to truly get an independent audit would be to drag Krauss down from succession.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Oh I just realized that this is completely irrelevant to both the "rosatrice vs shkanontrice" discussion and the "is Kinzo alive or dead?" discussion, so I will simply skip it as it would be waste of time to argue about that!

Very well, I confirm in Red that we may never agree on this part of the Umineko story and thereby its meaningless to our debate.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Before I answer that I must correct you first: You said "Kinzo died at the starting time of all games", and interpreted the "starting time" as the first twilight. The mistake you made was that it wasn't "died", but "is dead" instead. It was actually "Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games". Sure you can argue that "he died one second before the starting time of the game", but then we are back to Knox's 8th, as you have not given any clues yet, that show a certain time of death for Kinzo. I can still base everything on both the scene you just quoted and the very first scene in EP1 where Nanjo tells his prediction about Kinzo's estimated point of time of death. Also the "starting point" of the game was hinted to be the start of the first day, so 4th of October at 0:00, long before Battler reached Rokkenjima.

I realized my reading error, ironically when I went to sleep over it. I thought about the words 'is', and 'at the' and I realized that those words strongly implicate a death before the start of the games.

However, that by itself doesn't mean my theory about the time of Kinzo's death is denied! I'll teach you starting now, that Kinzo is neither alive nor dead except at the start of the game! Behold, my Red Truth!

Dr. Nanjo projected that Ushiromiya Kinzo had 3 months to live. According to Yasu, he died in November of 1984. According to this theory, he should've died in August of 1984, not November!(August is 3 months before the October date)

Well, it depends on how one goes about counting. If one excludes August, it's possible for November to fit the 3 month time frame(IE: You don't count August as a 'month', because it's already the month of August).

So I'll admit that my red has a little bit of wiggle room, but not much.



Magical scenes themselves of course, obviously aren't real. But we can use them as allegories. Both in the anime and the novel, we see that to begin the game, Kinzo throws his ruby ring into the storm. We can signify this as the last living moment for Kinzo. In real world terms, what if Kinzo handed the ring to Genji and shortly died thereafter?


Even if Rosa(or anyone one else besides Kinzo) inherited the ring after Kinzo's death. They themselves could not have sent the invitation to the Family Conference. The invitation was sent while Ushiromiya Kinzo was still alive.

The Conference itself is absolute proof that Kinzo was alive at least until 0:00:00 of October 4th, 1986.

Theoretically speaking, it could have been his servant(Genji) to write the invitational letters. But I've no doubt it was on Kinzo's behalf or suggestion.

Knox's 8th! It's forbidden for cases to be resolved without clues. Can it be shown that Krauss at any point knew(or at the very least suspected) Kinzo's death? If it can't be shown, then the theory that Krauss covered up Kinzo's death can't possibly be accepted.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Can you proof that Bernkastel was the game master of the main game of EP7 (aside from tea party)? It is more likely (or at least just as likely) that Aurora was the game master.

The 8th game! Aurora proclaimed that "It's Battler's game, and it is his right to weave his own game." She also acknowledged Lady Bernkastel as another Master of the Game.

She also proclaimed(or at least showed) more interest in reading the book then actually creating it. That's why she asked Bernkastel to write the truth. If she wanted to do it, she could've easily done it herself. She just didn't want to.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

To win enough time to get back his money that he lost, to pay his siblings' share of the inheritance and by that also abiding Natsuhi's wish to "protect the honor of the family".

He had 2 years! And I doubt Eva's investigation was anywhere near complete by 1984(we can also doubt its veracity considering how spiteful Eva is of Krauss as well as the other siblings. In fact, she's the most antagonist of them all.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

Natsuhi probably said something along the lines of "we cannot simply burn the head's corpse or bury it somewhere in the wilderness! that would be too disgraceful! We have to preserve it for now!" or something along these lines. Of course during the conference in 1986 they had no other choice, or it was simply Yasu doing it out of her own convenience.

I can concur to this. In the event of Kinzo's death in 1986. Don't you think it's unreasonable for a rich, elite, wealthy family to be unable to plan a basic funeral for 2 years? However, I can concur to this theory if in 1986, Natsuhi discovers Kinzo's dead corpse and within those 48 hours of being stuck between the typhoons, they may have had no choice but to burn the body, considering the siblings false suspicions. But I think burning the body makes no sense from Krauss's perspective. We know that the stench filled the entire mansion and basically alerts everyone to Kinzo's body. What was the point of that?

Turn the Chessboard Around.

If Krauss embezzled Kinzo, there's no way Krauss would want his corpse, or anything at all to do with him to be found by the siblings. And as you state, there's no way Natsuhi would've concurred to burning Kinzo's corpse

Originally Posted by Greyzone

For the endless ninth time! Because of "family honor" and "money embezzlement"

I listed my contentions above, my good friend. If you want to make it easier on yourself, you can concise my argument into categories, ignoring my specific statements or theories. As long as the same meaning is kept. Don't worry, the meaning of all of my words are the known meaning in which they are used in the English Language.

So indeed, I apologize for any repetiveness and if I give you the privilege to concise the argument to eliminate any such in my recent counterargument here.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

I guess that should do it for the "kinzo is alive" part for now. If you think you can argue back, I still have a hidden ace in my sleeve and also A LOT of "Knox's 2nd" for every single invalid red truth that you wrote.

Though I used the Red, my argument isn't consistent of the Magic Theory. Nor did I use the Magic Theory as a detective technique. By this, Knox's 2nd has no authority over my proposed theories. Red is simply more authoritative(as well as my favorite color). If you prefer me only to use Blue, then I'll use only blue from here on.

Originally Posted by Greyzone

But I, the Chaos Sorcerer will for now leave you alone with all these counter arguments (don't forget the ones from Dormin as well!)

This has been a very pleasant debate, Chaos Sorcerer. I look forward to your response. And perhaps later I'll overlook Dormin's post but I believe I may have covered all theories against my statement that Kinzo at least died on October 4th, 1986.

[NarutoAnimeLoverRyan]

I say..Interesting...reminds me of stories that my old home boys use to me back in high school.

[GreyZone]

From now on I will clearly state, which part of the discussion has become "offtopic", because we either agree on it more or less, or it has nothing to do with the main points (Kinzo's death time and "Beatrice") that we disagree with. Beware the power of copy & paste!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

How so? If Beatrice is caught in a Logic Error, isn't it Battler's victory? It doesn't make it redundant, it proves there's a weak point in Lady Beatrice's theory.

I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

You criticize my red for being weak, but then you propose such a weak Red Truth on the part of Lady Beatrice that we both denied, because we both know for a fact That Kinzo died a natural death

I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Even if Beatrice claimed the succession of titles theory, It doesn't change that a Natural Death occurred. At least one death can be explained without magic. It's basic assumption to go: "If one death was natural, logically that means all other deaths are logical or at the very least can be explained away logically and without magic."

I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I acknowledge the possibility Krauss was embezzling money from Kinzo. But I still don't resign.

Very well. Struggle as you wish!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Turn the Chessboard Over, we state that Krauss's reason for covering up Kinzo's death is because he embezzled money. Is Natsuhi keeping up her delusion for Krauss? The Golden Sorcerer Battler clearly stated at the end of the 5th game: That Natsuhi was pure and faithful

"sacrificing herself to protect her family (preventing Krauss's siblings from law suiting him) and the family's honor (prevent Krauss's inability of using money to become public knowledge)" would, as far as I see it, fit that red truth. Usually people would say that her actions are "noble". So I don't see a problem with that.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

As such, there's no way that Natsuhi would purposefully manipulate her siblings, just to cover Krauss's behind. Is Natsuhi truly delusional? Knox's 8th! A case cannot be solved without presentation of evidence

It was clearly shown that Natsuhi loves her family and would do anything to protect them (Krauss and Jessica). In this case, the only way to save them is to lie, as "appeasing the siblings somehow" is impossible, as all of them are after money to save their own asses as well, which does not exist anymore because of Krauss's incompetence.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

It was never confirmed that Natsuhi is or ever was delusional.

Oh, look! Natsuhi is drinking tea together with the family alchemist Beatrice! Nope... "Right now Natsuhi is drinking tea alone in the garden". And even if you say "that scene was a complete narrative lie", if she had to lie in order to protect what was dear to her, she would do it. She was doing it all for her faithfulness and convinction. I would consider that "pure" as well.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

If Krauss really did embezzle money from Kinzo, it makes even less sense for Krauss to allow Kinzo's corpse to be on the island on October 4th, 1986.(IE: The day of the conference).

The very last thing Krauss wants is for the Siblings to find out he was embezzling money, correct? So the very last thing Krauss would want at that time in 1984, is for the siblings to raise suspicion about him.

Let me propose the following theory: Krauss did indeed want to get rid of the corpse. As he was convinced that he was the new family head, he ordered Genji to do it, while being sure that he would follow his order. However the true family head, Yasu (also known as Beatrice), ordered him to preserve and hide Kinzo's corpse instead, to be able to use it for blackmailing Krauss and Natsuhi at a later point, or possibly as revenge against Natsuhi for throwing her down the cliff. This theory is only possible with BOTH Shkanontrice being the truth and Kinzo being dead, so it is impossible for you adapt it for own use.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

It would be more logical, presuming that Krauss was the embezzlement culprit to announce Kinzo's death in 1984, have him buried and establish trust as the Family Head. Eva's investigation is nowhere complete by this time, and it's entirely possible to move assets, etc overseas.

That doesn't change the fact that his siblings would want to have part of the inheritance. So when they would come to the mansion and say "give us our share", what was he supposed to do?

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

However, I don't believe Krauss embezzled money. Because the Ushiromiya wealth as a whole was drying out.

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Has there been any indication that the siblings, aside from Krauss himself, had access to Kinzo's bank account? If not, then "Kinzo's wealth" would remain untouched and it is known, that Kinzo has always been successful with money (in emergencies he also had access to the gold). So it is out of the question that Kinzo would go bankrupt by himself

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

All of the Adult siblings were losing money hand and foot, Kasumi pretty much admitted this in her pursuit of Ange during the 4th game. The 'Glory' of the Ushiromiya family was shaky in 1986, and only got shakier after Rokkenjima Prime.

You just hurt yourself with that! This just makes my point stronger, that the only person who is known to be truly successful in terms of money in the Ushiromiya family, has died in 1984!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Gold is an Asset, not money. It cannot be used per say as bartender(IE: You can't take gold out of a ATM machine). Sure, you could convert it and trade for it. But it's confirmed that Jessica, Natsuhi and Krauss lived at the main island with Kinzo.

Krauss said, that he has contacts to the black market, that could convert the gold into money over time!
But wait... why am I arguing against that?
I shouldn't have entered this part of the discussion, as it does not strenghten the point of any of us.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

We could use the argument that Kinzo established some kind of bank firm at the island. Though it can't be proven, it is plausible with his assets. Provided they haven't dried out like I think they have.

Knox's 8th. It is forbidden for the case to be resolved with clues that are not presented! Also I don't see the relevance of that.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

How can I prove that the Ushiromiya wealth died out, other than the situation of the Siblings? It was mentioned specifically in the games that Kinzo could call upon a miracle, but the cost of that miracle was everything.(IE: It only happened once). Using a Real-World analogy, Kinzo probably had his fair share of initial successes to restore the Ushiromiya's wealth.

However, there wouldn't be a 2nd success, or a second wave of successes. And eventually, via giving away money to his entire family they ended up right back where they started.

That could be the true reason that Kinzo hates the siblings(IE: his children)!

Knox's 2nd. It is forbidden for supernatural agencies to be employed as a detective technique! All of that is pure speculation and doesn't have the power of red truth at all! The "miracle" could also be just referring to the so-called "resurrection of Beatrice".

Dlanor said that pieces can not be out of character! Therefore neither the description in the initial Episodes, nor the description in Episode 8 can be considered "out of character". Since both are "in character", the description of neither is absolute and must be somewhere between strict and kind. Therefore him "hating" his children is not an established fact!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

In fairness, I'll now reveal a scene that I just recalled that prove that Erika's theory was partially correct. A witch should truly be honorable, even in defeat.

In the first game, Krauss reveals to Natsuhi that the Gold actually existed. This would prove that Krauss had a deceitful personality or at least intention.


**The Red Sword I created pierced my body, drawing blood. As I gushed out of my mouth, I smirked.**

However, this Red Truth will also prove Natsuhi's innocence without doubt.

Natsuhi was genuinely shocked and upset at the 'betrayal' of Krauss. That she fought on his behalf and honor, and yet he manipulated her even covertly.

But it's important to note that Krauss got that bar of gold through various sources. The original gold bar that Kinzo allowed a friend to examine. At no point is Krauss remotely aware of Kuwadorian or the mansion, and thereby where the gold resides.

I present a different theory surrounding the embezzlement. Krauss didn't(or rather, couldn't) embezzle Kinzo if his only real tangible asset was the gold. But rather, the Ushiromiya Family used the wealth it had and the pond dried up. When that pond dried up, the siblings concocted the scheme known as 'embezzlement'. If there was embezzlement, the entire family is guilty of it.

Well, I have to be careful. When I say 'Entire Family', I could've spoken of the Cousins, invalidating my Blue Truth. All of the Adult Siblings took on more than they could chew. This doesn't implicate the cousins in any way.

So you finally admit defeat at least regarding Krauss? A wise decision! Now just Natsuhi, Kinzo and Rosa are left! You sacrificed Krauss to strenghten Natsuhi's defense, but don't worry, I will crush that as well!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

But then, why damage that said honor by engaging in embezzlement? Krauss himself said that he established business connections across Japan(I refuse to say the world, let's just say Japan for in all reasonable likelihood). There's no reason for Krauss to directly embezzle Kinzo(if in fact, he had any wealth remaining by 1984 as I speculate he didn't)

But his buisness connections are what almost led him to being bankrupt to begin with! He said himself, that he used the ideas that his buisness partners gave him, but none of those worked out! Just like the idea to "turn Rokkenjima into a holiday resort" didn't work out!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

If Natsuhi's main goal in the Umineko story is to protect the honor and glory of the Ushiromiya family, then Krauss's embezzlement and deceit of even his wife is the furthest thing from helping Natsuhi.

Krauss embezzlement already happened before Kinzo's death in 1984! He was sure he could get all his money back by "borrowing" some money from from his father, but due to his own incompetence, he only had losses as well. After Kinzo's death in 1984, Natsuhi, who was hiding behind her husband all the time, started to involve herself into that matter as well and Krauss started to be more careful with his money, but he was not able to gain back what was lost until the conference in 1986.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

And I've stated above my hypothesis, that the reason there's no money is because all of the siblings, including him soaked all the water out of the pond.

Again, your assumption, that Kinzo lost all of his money by himself like his children, is very unlikely, escpacially considering that he was still in possession of the gold. In fact I still didn't see any clue regarding Kinzo going bunkrupt, aside from "that miracle" which you can interpret in many different ways aside from yours. And what about the 1 billion credit card? Will you dismiss it as a "narrative lie" as well?

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Red Truth accepted. However, I use it against you as well to establish the truth of my hypothesis.

I believe it was early in the First Novel(one of the earlier games, first or second, I'm not sure) that the narration pointed out just how charitable Kinzo was, and how much the Ushiromiya siblings relied on it for upstart capital. So, by the narrative, my blue theory is plausible.

Again, Kinzo is still in possession of the gold and there is still the "1 billion credit card".

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

The 'Narrative', as well as the white text used by the characters in the Umineko Story exist in a kind of warped space in the middle of the Red and Blue. In a sense, as a "Golden Truth" of the reader. We can choose to accept certain parts of the narrative or white text that's believable, or deny that which is seemingly implausible to us individually as readers.

Just as the Golden Sorcerer proclaimed there's no way to truly identify Kinzo's corpse, there's also no way to independently verify the truth of what happened. No matter how many bottles Yasu/Beatrice wrote, the catbox would always remain closed.


In this sense, I have to agree with Lady Bernkastel. Because we can't independently verify the truth, we cannot accept any of it as truth. Or in other words, Clair had hoped that someone in the world would understand her. But if she's not believable, how can she be 'understood'? Or, even if someone understood her, they wouldn't know if they truly did and could only speculate. There really is no hope in any of the many worlds for Clair/Beatrice(Yasu)

FIXED! And I have to disagree. According to the Ikuko=Yasu theory, she can (almost, more or less) live happily ever after with Tohya.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Ryukishi himself proclaimed that the Gold could be used by the game's "pieces". Which would concur to the theory that the Golden Truth is an accepted truth of participants. However, the reason it can be inferior to red is quite simple: An Accepted Truth is inferior to the actual truth.

In other words, theories cannot replace actual fact. A theory that Man can defy gravity cannot replace the known fact that the Law of Pull exists. We're stuck on the ground whether we like it or not.

It might not have influenced the logic battle, but it gave us a clearer definition of the Golden Truth and its laws and how it works.

We're independent readers who exist both in and outside of the cat box at the same time. All of our theories may eventually one day pierce the heart of the truth. It might have been too early to use Gold for Krauss.

But even you can agree that I can use gold for Natushi. The Red statements from Battler, and facts from the previous games conclude overwhelmingly that Natsuhi didn't participate in Krauss's deception(if he did indeed deceive)

No, I've got a valid reason why Natsuhi must have lied at least once, but I will write that at the end of this post...

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Not necessarily in the red text, and primarily by Yasu's theory. The closest we come is "Ushiromiya Kinzo is already dead at the starting time of all games."

However, I now intend to make another argument to support my theory that Kinzo died on October 4th, 1986 before the Family Conference.

According to Ronove, my master Lambda-Sama set it at a 24:00 session. Kinzo could've only existed within this session(IE: Within the Games themselves). To declare Kinzo alive or dead outside of the two-day session would mean that Kinzo only existed outside the Cat Box.

Which is utterly illogical, wouldn't you say? One of the most important characters in the series, might as well not have been a character? And rather than pretending a dead man's alive for 2 years, it's much more logical to presume he died on the day of the Conference.

Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games! The starting time itself was never told in red. However it was said multiple times that the game spans 2 days: October 4th and October 5th. Since it was never said that one day is "longer" than another and no one has narrowed down the time of beginning more than by the date, which is October 4th, I can only reach the conclusion that the game lenght is the whole two days, or in other words: 48 hours from 4th of October at 0:00 until 5th of October at 24:00! At 4th of October at 0:00 Ushiromiya Kinzo was definitly dead and his moment of death must have been before that. But I like your argument that his "actual death date" is outside the catbox. So to respect that, all I say is this: It is impossible for Kinzo to be alive during the game and also impossible to actively influence the game in any way!

I actually don't even need Krauss "embezzlement" anymore, because you just admitted that he is deceitful and admitted defeat regarding him! You also didn't deny Kinzo's access to the gold and the 1 billion credit card yet, both that prove that Kinzo simply could not have been in a dire situation!

From now on I will skip things that I already covered!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

And I have proof of this hypothesis, the first game!(or was it the second?) Eva placed a note inside Kinzo's door, this was used to fabricate against Natsuhi. But what it proved was that Kinzo 'existed' at some point and then for some reason left the room. This scene, to me is an allegory. An allegory that Kinzo existed at the start of the game, then shortly afterwards died.(This incident happened at the First Twilight, and I believe before any murders were discovered. Though I could be mistaken)

Kinzo is dead at the starting time of all games! I covered the "most likely starting point of the game" already too, which is the 4th of October at 0:00!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

This lie however, wasn't close to a solution for Krauss or Natsuhi. By this point, the siblings had grown impatient with Krauss and Natsuhi's dancing around, and some temporary lie only brought them a little bit of time.

Krauss always needed "just a bit more time". Even if that sounds like an excuse to us, as long as they believe that they can get out of the crisis with that, they will go through with it. All of them are desperate, he and his siblings. They even evidently seriously tried to solve the epitaph, but that just didn't work out in most games.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I also argue that if the first game isn't Rokkenjima Prime, none of the games can be Rokkenjima Prime. Because the first game is literally a time where the reader knew nothing of the Meta-World, or of Beatrice's existence.In other words, it's the closest thing to(and IMO it is) what happened during the actual two day crisis.

Woa, hold on there! I agree that none of the games are actually Rokkenjima prime, but to say that EP1 is prime is a very daring claim! For an individual episode to be "prime" you must meet following 2 conditions:

1. At the end of the game, Battler must have enough time to escape the "Reaper" and must still be alive at that point!
You already don't fulfill this condition as he is still in the mansion at 5th of October at 23:59!

2. At the end of the game, Eva must have enough time to escape the "Reaper" and must still be alive at that point!
But Eva is probably already dead!

So even if you would try to make an Eva culprit theory there at this point, you still cannot explain how Battler escapes!

This may not be relevant to our discussion, but I just had to correct that.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

And if they did an audit and compared their own financial records, it's just as plausible that they have themselves to blame for the Ushiromiya's downfall in my hypothesis.

At the very least, it can't be disputed that the other siblings are less than judge worthy characters themselves for wanting to grab inheritance money as their main means to solve their problems.

Embezzleing money is more than just "incompetence" or "inability to deal with money" though. Embezzlement is already going into criminal territory. Even more hiding Kinzo's death is. Natsuhi and Krauss gambled with a second crime to hide the first crime. And should any of his siblings find out about even just one of those "crimes".... then he should probably prey to whatever god(s) he believes in.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Here, I'll reference the first game. In the siblings conditions, of the 20 million they thought to believe to have had in assets, Krauss would recieve 12.5 million. Also, Eva allowed Krauss to conduct the audit. As long as the siblings themselves could confirm the amounts matched up.

It wouldn't take much(if Krauss was indeed embezzling)to have the amount match up artificially with a paux-audit. Allowing him to get away with the majority of cash shares.

Hence, at no time did Krauss ever really show panic about the situation. In fact, it was always Natushi who acted indignant to the questioning. His position as successor basically made him the chicken watching over the hen house. The only way for the siblings to truly get an independent audit would be to drag Krauss down from succession.

As long as no one has proof that he hid Kinzo's death or embezzled money, he had nothing to fear about.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I realized my reading error, ironically when I went to sleep over it. I thought about the words 'is', and 'at the' and I realized that those words strongly implicate a death before the start of the games.

However, that by itself doesn't mean my theory about the time of Kinzo's death is denied! I'll teach you starting now, that Kinzo is neither alive nor dead except at the start of the game! Behold, my Red Truth!

Dr. Nanjo projected that Ushiromiya Kinzo had 3 months to live. According to Yasu, he died in November of 1984. According to this theory, he should've died in August of 1984, not November!(August is 3 months before the October date)

Well, it depends on how one goes about counting. If one excludes August, it's possible for November to fit the 3 month time frame(IE: You don't count August as a 'month', because it's already the month of August).

So I'll admit that my red has a little bit of wiggle room, but not much.

You should reread what you just wrote. I could claim victory regarding Kinzo now, because you actually admitted either way that Kinzo died by 1984, be it August (in that case he was missing from that year's family conference as well), October or November. But the "game" begins about 2 years later in 1986! Do you see your mistake now? I allow you to revise it though. Of course if you simply changed your mind, then it is OK too.

Or I completely misunderstood you, so assuming that: August is the 8th month of the year and November is the 11th month of the year. The prediction was "3 months". So using basic math: 8+3=11! And also imagine, it would just be one month! Would you say the time that Passes would be August to August? Of course not! You would say from August to September! The same applies to the 3 month period which means from August to November!

*Cackle Cackle* Maybe you should go back to primary school! *ahaha_low_pitch.wav*

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Magical scenes themselves of course, obviously aren't real. But we can use them as allegories. Both in the anime and the novel, we see that to begin the game, Kinzo throws his ruby ring into the storm. We can signify this as the last living moment for Kinzo. In real world terms, what if Kinzo handed the ring to Genji and shortly died thereafter?


Even if Rosa(or anyone one else besides Kinzo) inherited the ring after Kinzo's death. They themselves could not have sent the invitation to the Family Conference. The invitation was sent while Ushiromiya Kinzo was still alive.

The Conference itself is absolute proof that Kinzo was alive at least until 0:00:00 of October 4th, 1986.

The storm only comes when the all people already arrived, in other words after the 4th of October at 0:00, which means after the game started. And as we know, Ushiromiya Kinzo is dead at the starting point of all games! so the Kinzo we saw there was most certainly not "Ushiromiya Kinzo". That scene could not happen like that!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

Theoretically speaking, it could have been his servant(Genji) to write the invitational letters. But I've no doubt it was on Kinzo's behalf or suggestion.

Knox's 8th! It's forbidden for cases to be resolved without clues. Can it be shown that Krauss at any point knew(or at the very least suspected) Kinzo's death? If it can't be shown, then the theory that Krauss covered up Kinzo's death can't possibly be accepted.

Insolence! How dare you ask me something that I answered in the post before already? You even wrote that you accepted my red truth regarding that!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

The 8th game! Aurora proclaimed that "It's Battler's game, and it is his right to weave his own game." She also acknowledged Lady Bernkastel as another Master of the Game.

She also proclaimed(or at least showed) more interest in reading the book then actually creating it. That's why she asked Bernkastel to write the truth. If she wanted to do it, she could've easily done it herself. She just didn't want to.

I was actually referring to the tea party of the 7th game! Regarding the 8th game I agree, as Aurora herself clearly stated that.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

He had 2 years! And I doubt Eva's investigation was anywhere near complete by 1984(we can also doubt its veracity considering how spiteful Eva is of Krauss as well as the other siblings. In fact, she's the most antagonist of them all.

Nothing suggests that 2 years was actually enough time for him to get the money back, escpacially considering that he is deemed incompetent. That Eva is antagonistic toward her siblings is of course an established fact, as is the fact that Krauss and Natsuhi did expect the siblings to be more aware of Kinzo's absence in 1986's conference than they were in 1985's conference. But I don't know what Eva is supposed to have to do with our discussion.

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I can concur to this. In the event of Kinzo's death in 1986. Don't you think it's unreasonable for a rich, elite, wealthy family to be unable to plan a basic funeral for 2 years? However, I can concur to this theory if in 1986, Natsuhi discovers Kinzo's dead corpse and within those 48 hours of being stuck between the typhoons, they may have had no choice but to burn the body, considering the siblings false suspicions. But I think burning the body makes no sense from Krauss's perspective. We know that the stench filled the entire mansion and basically alerts everyone to Kinzo's body. What was the point of that?

Turn the Chessboard Around.

If Krauss embezzled Kinzo, there's no way Krauss would want his corpse, or anything at all to do with him to be found by the siblings. And as you state, there's no way Natsuhi would've concurred to burning Kinzo's corpse

All of this can be explained if the person responsible for that was actually Yasu!

Originally Posted by ALPHA-Beatrice

I listed my contentions above, my good friend. If you want to make it easier on yourself, you can concise my argument into categories, ignoring my specific statements or theories. As long as the same meaning is kept. Don't worry, the meaning of all of my words are the known meaning in which they are used in the English Language.

So indeed, I apologize for any repetiveness and if I give you the privilege to concise the argument to eliminate any such in my recent counterargument here.




Though I used the Red, my argument isn't consistent of the Magic Theory. Nor did I use the Magic Theory as a detective technique. By this, Knox's 2nd has no authority over my proposed theories. Red is simply more authoritative(as well as my favorite color). If you prefer me only to use Blue, then I'll use only blue from here on.



This has been a very pleasant debate, Chaos Sorcerer. I look forward to your response. And perhaps later I'll overlook Dormin's post but I believe I may have covered all theories against my statement that Kinzo at least died on October 4th, 1986.

I acknowledge that you use "red" only for cosmetic purposes. I however will try to keep my usage of red tied to the rules.




And now my first attack that is not of responsive nature, so beware:

If you claim that Natsuhi is always truthful, then tell me, how is Natsuhi's claim that Kinzo was in his study possible? We don't have enough details for EP1, but for EP5 we know exactly that it isn't possible!

The windows were never opened after it started raining!




From now on I will narrow down the discussion as much as possible...

[Dormin]

Lately there has been some discussion about umineko manga

I'm especially curious how they have "fixed" the episode 8 to a form it was supposed to be before rushed release. In what sense have things changed? I'm having hard time believing the original content could be changed much.

I have been waiting for the official english translations and they are slow as hell. So far I've managed to get a hold of three volumes, going up to about halfway of ep 2. I must say that even if the manga is better than the anime (that shouldn't be any surprise at this point) it is still far below the vn. Maybe pacing is better, but I myself don't like the art, as it seems very generic and bland. Compared to, let's say Higanbana, the art lacks emotion so far.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Dormin

I'm especially curious how they have "fixed" the episode 8 to a form it was supposed to be before rushed release. In what sense have things changed? I'm having hard time believing the original content could be changed much.

To provide a quick summary:

• A lot of dialogue is expanded upon or clarified. The riddles segment is basically replaced with a more manga-friendly format that gives better depth into the "reward scenes" than were in the VN. This expands greatly on some of the characters (especially Rudolf and Rosa, from what I've seen).
• Some confirmation of things that were either only implied in the VN (how anybody knew about Battler being Kyrie's son outside the island, how anyone knew the explosives existed, etc.), or that simply had no confirmation at all (how Beatrice creates magic symbols and such quickly).
• Ange gets a lot more internal narration and seems somewhat more conflicted about things. Kyrie/Rudolf/Asumu is humanized a bit more and Rudolf's seemingly ridiculous actions are slightly better-justified. Battler is slightly (ever-so-slightly) less of a dickhead.

Of course there's still lots of time for it to go off the rails, but I've been impressed with its handling of what I considered a very kludgy and weak section of a weak episode so far.

[Cao Ni Ma]

I'd love to know if supergoat's theories are the same as in the visual novel. Just looking at some of the pics make me think some of them are different.