Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Renegade334]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

at the right time of course, when Russia is too busy to prevent said outcome.

The point I'm trying to make is that Russia essentially already has pre-positioned units within Belarus for such a scenario. The second Moscow learns that Belarus is leaning towards a breakaway from the Russian sphere towards NATO, we will see a not-so-subtle "Green Men" scenario with reports of gunfire in shared Belarussian-Russian military bases followed by armored vehicles speeding towards Minsk for a chat with Lukashenko.

Also, NATO candidacy isn't that straightforward. Sweden and Finland were actually in good standing with their Western neighbors for a long time and it's only Turkey blocking the door that slowed down this fast-tracked induction process. Ukraine vied for it for years after the 2014 invasion and NATO, in response, shuffled its feet for a number of reasons - to avoid goading Russia into a broader military or economic response...and wariness towards Ukraine's endemic governmental corruption issues. How do you think Lukashenko measures up compared to a pre-2022 Ukraine that had its big pool of oligarchs and bribers? Think NATO will see him as a reformed leader (don't forget - he's still known as "Europe's last dictator") that's seen the light? Nope.

[Ithekro]

I imagine any "Green Men" scenario in Belarus will quickly earn a bunch if Ukrainians coming across the border to intercept the Russians.

[Renegade334]

Provided they can spare the manpower, and I'm not too sure about that. While I do not know how many reserves it still has, its current recruitment numbers and its unit regeneration capability, the UA has been subjected to combat attrition for a while already and it's still got three regions to retake. They'll need every man in the fight during the spring offensive, on top of (less critical, but still numerous) personnel needed to hold the other borders (the North, for one) fast. And that's not taking into account Russian counter-offensives and escalation -- and the price that comes therewith.

No, what is of bigger interest is how the Belarussian military will react to a hypothetical takeover, when they've already got Russian boots on the ground mingling with them. One can fantasize about an ouster of Lukashenko by a military junta followed by a Ferdinand Marcos-style exile, but I'm not holding my hopes up -- the Belarussian armed forces could've sided with the political opposition during the demonstrations that preceded the 2022 invasion, but they didn't.

I do see however see Lukashenko stalling Moscow for time to prevent the country from getting subsumed into the greater Russian body.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

The point I'm trying to make is that Russia essentially already has pre-positioned units within Belarus for such a scenario. The second Moscow learns that Belarus is leaning towards a breakaway from the Russian sphere towards NATO, we will see a not-so-subtle "Green Men" scenario with reports of gunfire in shared Belarussian-Russian military bases followed by armored vehicles speeding towards Minsk for a chat with Lukashenko.

The thing is, the "little green men" scenario is no longer as feasible after one year of war attrition, where they have lost most of their highly trained personnel and those still alive are fighting in Ukraine without being rotated at all.

So yeah, there are russian boots on the ground, but are easily identifiable and can be arrested on short notice because they are not highly motivated to do anything else, see Armenia for an example.

Also, NATO candidacy isn't that straightforward. Sweden and Finland were actually in good standing with their Western neighbors for a long time and it's only Turkey blocking the door that slowed down this fast-tracked induction process. Ukraine vied for it for years after the 2014 invasion and NATO, in response, shuffled its feet for a number of reasons - to avoid goading Russia into a broader military or economic response...and wariness towards Ukraine's endemic governmental corruption issues. How do you think Lukashenko measures up compared to a pre-2022 Ukraine that had its big pool of oligarchs and bribers? Think NATO will see him as a reformed leader (don't forget - he's still known as "Europe's last dictator") that's seen the light? Nope.

Yeah, luka at the helm is a non-starter, but a fresh new government eager for reform could do wonders in record time without luka to oppose them.

The simple reason NATO would not give membership to Ukraine after 2014 is precisely because they were already invaded and theoretically any new government could trigger article 5, triggering a direct confrontation with russia, a no no.

Originally Posted by Renegade334

No, what is of bigger interest is how the Belarussian military will react to a hypothetical takeover, when they've already got Russian boots on the ground mingling with them. One can fantasize about an ouster of Lukashenko by a military junta followed by a Ferdinand Marcos-style exile, but I'm not holding my hopes up -- the Belarussian armed forces could've sided with the political opposition during the demonstrations that preceded the 2022 invasion, but they didn't.

They could be secretively bribed by the west, I mean, a pocket full of money and you get to play the hero of the movie, that is a win-win situation. From what I hear nowadays the belarusian army is fed up with having russian federation army personnel in their territory, because they treat them as inferior.

[Roger Rambo]

The little green men contingency has greater problems than Russia not being able to spare the proffessional operators to pull that stunt, but it is an issue. The Russian takeover of Crimea partly worked because the Russians managed the takeover smoothly and professionally enough, that Russian control over the peninsula provided an appearance of stability that looked more attractive than the Chaos and uncertainty going on with Maidan on the mainland.

Those circumstances don't apply to Belarus today. Belarus being annexed doesn't offer its citizens even a promise of stability, but an express ticket to getting fed into the Ukraine blender. This is pretty awkward for the Belarusian government since their own military is one of the demographics that doesn't want to fight. An FSB backed LGM type operation won't work if a bunch of Belarusian generals decide that a handful of Spetnaz and FSB spooks are easier to defeat with tanks than Javelin and HIMARS equipped Ukrainians.

[Yu Ominae]

https://armourersbench.com/2023/01/1...r-rpg-warhead/

Armorer's Bench has a page (and YT video) on the use of the makeshift fire extinguisher as an improvised RPG warhead by the Sheikh Mansur Battalion.

[Key Board]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ts-2023-04-12/

MOSCOW, April 12 (Reuters) - As many as 354,000 Russian and Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the Ukraine war which is grinding towards a protracted conflict that may last well beyond 2023, according to a trove of purported U.S. intelligence documents posted online.

If authentic, the documents, which look like secret U.S. assessments of the war as well as some U.S. espionage against allies, offer rare insight into Washington's view of one of Europe's deadliest conflicts since World War Two.

probably old news by now. Civilian casualties must be even higher.

//

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/st...95415725187077

The guy who posted the tweet (He's active military in the Ukrainian military) translated unencrypted Russian Army chatter that their troops fighting can't retreat.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/st...95415725187077

The guy who posted the tweet (He's active military in the Ukrainian military) translated unencrypted Russian Army chatter that their troops fighting can't retreat.

This is nothing new, have been hearing about it for months, where the second line of defense purpose is to shoot anyone attempting to retreat. No doubt this order comes from the kremlin, putin is a one trick pony whose only solution to any problem is to kill somebody.

[ganbaru]

Airman suspected of leaking secret US documents hit with federal charges
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man...rt-2023-04-14/
Can someone tell me how a U.S. Air National Guard got his hand on that kind of intel? The info about the situation on Ukraine ( like th actual number of KIA on both side or the level of Ukraine's stock of SAM) I could maybe see how, but the more geopolitical stuff seem a bit more of a far stretch.

[ramlaen]

Originally Posted by ganbaru

Airman suspected of leaking secret US documents hit with federal charges
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/man...rt-2023-04-14/
Can someone tell me how a U.S. Air National Guard got his hand on that kind of intel? The info about the situation on Ukraine ( like th actual number of KIA on both side or the level of Ukraine's stock of SAM) I could maybe see how, but the more geopolitical stuff seem a bit more of a far stretch.

The short version is anyone with a given security clearance could access it, it's just that most with said clearances aren't 21 year olds trying to impress their gamer buddies on discord.

[Liddo-kun]

[scififan]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

The short version is anyone with a given security clearance could access it, it's just that most with said clearances aren't 21 year olds trying to impress their gamer buddies on discord.

It also depends on his job. Someone on Youtube says the 21 year old is an IT guy. The information is not confirmed. The case is strikingly similar to the story of a 22 year old who sold information to Wikileaks for transgender surgery and then he was later saved by the former president. The reason on the news was that frontline guys complained that they were in dangerous situation when intel was not shared with them.

[Renegade334]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

The short version is anyone with a given security clearance could access it, it's just that most with said clearances aren't 21 year olds trying to impress their gamer buddies on discord.

Could've been worse - it could've been some random schmuck trying to get the last word in a heated technical debate on the War Thunder forums.

And yes I know it is no consolation.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by ramlaen

The short version is anyone with a given security clearance could access it, it's just that most with said clearances aren't 21 year olds trying to impress their gamer buddies on discord.

Even with security clearance, shouldn't there be some kind of compartment; some of the infos were clearly more state department stuffs that pentagon one.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by ganbaru

Even with security clearance, shouldn't there be some kind of compartment; some of the infos were clearly more state department stuffs that pentagon one.

Back in the XX century, my answer would have been "That is impossible, there must be some kind of error or conspiracy behind". But we are now in the XXI century, so the only answer I can muster is "Duuuude, it is 'murrica we are talking about, the government is snafu, as expected".

[Yu Ominae]

Vladimir Kara-Murza is sentenced to 25 years for spreading misinformation on the Russian military and treason. He's been a critic of the Kremlin.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

Vladimir Kara-Murza is sentenced to 25 years for spreading misinformation on the Russian military and treason. He's been a critic of the Kremlin.

TBT I am surprised putrid hasn't gone full stalin mode and started sending anyone that even does even some light criticism to Siberia. Maybe he is sending them to the donbas frontline, it is hard to tell.

[Yu Ominae]

Can only find this video on reddit.

Someone in Kyiv recorded this strange green light.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/com...light_in_kyiv/

[Roger Rambo]

Forbes has an intersting article on how imported high end ball bearings are potentially an even bigger bottleneck to Russias tank production/refurbishment than even sanctioned western electronics. And may be a reason we've seen this recent transition at least on a modest scale to much lower and less mechanicall complex tanks like the T-62 andT-54

The ball-bearing problem might be even harder for Moscow to solve. Even after trading Sosna-Us for 1PN96MT-02s, Uralvagonzavod and Omsktransmash still were at an impasse. Workers were building or restoring most of a tank, then running out of parts.

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Yes, there were small stockpiles of ball-bearings in Russia when the wider war kicked off. But Russian rail-operators needed those bearings, too. If anything, the railways' hunger for bearings grew as their 13,000 locomotives moved more and more replacement men and equipment to the Ukraine front.Given a choice between building fewer tanks or freezing transport across Russia, Moscow did the smart thing—and chose the former.

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The older tanks require fewer modern components and fewer ball-bearings. They're hopelessly outmatched in a stand-up fight with better-equipped Ukrainian forces, but they at least slow down the Ukrainians. "The T-55 in this sense is a resource-saver and an opportunity to buy time," a Kremlin source told Volya Media.

There's some intersting implications here. Especially since UkrOboronProm recently setup shop in Poland to do tank repair and refurbishment work, and theoretically could be better positioned to turn a relic T-64 tank into a battle worthy vehicle due to their easier access to electronic components and high quality ball bearings than Russia could.