[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 6 Dawn of the golden witch

[Shiro Kaisen]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

@ Shiro Kaisen

Wait at this point I need you to quote, because the way I remember it, the first time we see the metaroom as soon as it finishes we see Erika and Dlanor in the guesthouse room.

The part you mention where Erika comments the game should be before the metaroom scenes.

@ Renall

So your point is that Battler didn't make the best possible choice because "else it wasn't interesting", and since he concocted a needlessly complicated plot, he's a genius?


and what's with that slippery slope argument thing? Where my argument was as slippery slope?

I'll go find it later, I need to get some work done right now.

And he had to do it this way, rather than do it with just Beatrice, because he needed to kill Erika at the same time. And of course, Bernkastel would totally ruin his plan if he hadn't done it this way. Plus, Beato might not have had the same sense of urgency without Bern and Lambda talking about how screwed he was, believing he was dead.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

@ Renall

So your point is that Battler didn't make the best possible choice because "else it wasn't interesting", and since he concocted a needlessly complicated plot, he's a genius?

I'm not sure what's "needlessly complicated" about a plot that is foreshadowed to closely mirror Kinzo's plot to resurrect Beatrice.

and what's with that slippery slope argument thing? Where my argument was as slippery slope?

"If x was just a faked scene to convince Beatrice of something, then so could (next level of meta-abstraction from x)!" Essentially. You're right, you can question where that ends. But I think it rationally can only end one level higher.

Come on, do you really want to think Battler is that dumb?

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen

Question on the seals, since we've gotten to a certain point where we can talk details.

If Shannon is Erika, how does she seal the room while being inside it? She's confirmed to be inside at the time of the sealing. The duct tape seals are referred to as "duct tape seals" several times, so I don't really think we can dismiss them as a meta construct.

Well, there's a funny thing about that. The only instance where Erika is confirmed to have sealed something with duct tape is when she repaired the chain lock on the guest room. In every other case, there was a strange difference in the wording Dlanor used: instead of "Erika sealed X with duct tape", she said that "X was hermetically sealed". Not only was the term for "seal" different, but the phrasing even avoided confirming that Erika was the one who sealed the room.

[Shiro Kaisen]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Well, there's a funny thing about that. The only instance where Erika is confirmed to have sealed something with duct tape is when she repaired the chain lock on the guest room. In every other case, there was a strange difference in the wording Dlanor used: instead of "Erika sealed X with duct tape", she said that "X was hermetically sealed". Not only was the term for "seal" different, but the phrasing even avoided confirming that Erika was the one who sealed the room.

Yeah, I know that it doesn't use "duct tape" in most cases, but it clearly does in Episode 5's red, so I see it as unlikely they were different.

...though that other part is definitely true. In other words...

What if Kanon was the one to seal the two rooms' doors, and Jessica sealed the cousins' room's window?

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen

Yeah, I know that it doesn't use "duct tape" in most cases, but it clearly does in Episode 5's red, so I see it as unlikely they were different.

It's beyond improbable for her to have climbed the exterior guesthouse walls in the middle of a hurricane just to seal the windows shut. That is probably the single most stupid thing she claims to have done, ever.

There is no way Erika could have physically sealed anything, and indeed, there's no red that explicitly states she did. Just constant references to "Erika's seals", without any red confirmation as to what they were.

...Of course, there is something that could undermine my argument, and it's that Eva's seals are the same type as <Miss> Erika's, and if Erika's seals don't exist, why is Eva specifically stated to be sealing the servant's room?

[Shiro Kaisen]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

There is no way Erika could have physically sealed anything, and indeed, there's no red that explicitly states she did. Just constant references to "Erika's seals", without any red confirmation as to what they were.

Eva's seal was of the same type as <Miss> Erika's. That is because this method of sealing was one that <Miss> Erika and Eva conceived of together after DINNER.
It is impossible to tear off any of the seals by any method without leaving marks.
There were no suspicious marks on any of the seals...!
All of Erika and Eva's seals were not tampered with in any way that hindered their ability to act as seals, such as being scraped off.

Those are pretty much physical characteristics...so I dunno how those reds could apply to a meta construct.

Though the "Erika alone didn't apply them" explanation still works.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen

Eva's seal was of the same type as <Miss> Erika's. That is because this method of sealing was one that <Miss> Erika and Eva conceived of together after DINNER.

Actually, that makes for an interesting complication.

Suppose we're in the Erika-doesn't-exist camp, (well, I am, I should say) and claim that Piece-known-as-Erika-in-red and Meta-Erika are distinct entities, not joined at the hip like the other piece-meta pairs. Red seems to support this decently well because they're distinctly referred by different name formats. Meta-Erika is then able to use the meta-concept of a sealed room as a special ability move against the Gamemaster, which can be used a limited number of times, and does not require the physical seal to exist, while physical seals made by Eva exist and possibly, physical seals made by Piece-known-as-Erika also exist in some cases of Meta-Erika sealing the rooms, but not necessarily.

The red about Erika's seals being untampered with and having no suspicious marks is trivial to defuse, because something that doesn't exist physically cannot be tampered with anyway. It is similarly impossible to remove a meta-seal physically, as a physical seal doesn't exist. Seals can still be of the same type if one of them exists and the other doesn't.

But that chunk of red also seems to state that the Piece-known-as-Erika actually colluded with Eva about the idea of sealing rooms. Eva is the originator of sealing idea in the first place all the way back in episode 1, and duct tape is just a foolproof version of the same, so that's nothing particularly new. Eva getting someone else to help her with sealing or inventing a more foolproof sealing method also feels slightly normal. (Considering that using a piece of paper with an official stamp on it glued to the door and the door frame is standard sealing practice for police and other officials around my part of the world, it's hardly even an invention, anyone could have picked up the idea somewhere even if they can't think of it themselves.)

It works up until we remember that our only candidate for the Piece-known-as-Erika that remains is Shannon, whom Eva never trusted to any serious degree in any game. Shannon and Eva conceiving of something together is a problem, because Eva trusting Shannon with something like that would be quite out of character...

...unless Eva wanted to achieve something else in this manner, maybe.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Oliver

It works up until we remember that our only candidate for the Piece-known-as-Erika that remains is Shannon, whom Eva never trusted to any serious degree in any game. Shannon and Eva conceiving of something together is a problem, because Eva trusting Shannon with something like that would be quite out of character...

...unless Eva wanted to achieve something else in this manner, maybe.

I actually brought this up a few pages ago: This can be solved by assuming that both Eva and Shannon are part of the Scare-the-Crap-Out-of-Natsuhi conspiracy. In fact, for most of Ep5 to work, everyone but Natsuhi and Krauss (and probably Gohda, but he doesn't count) would have to be in on this conspiracy.

[Raiza Sunozaki]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I actually brought this up a few pages ago: This can be solved by assuming that both Eva and Shannon are part of the Scare-the-Crap-Out-of-Natsuhi conspiracy. In fact, for most of Ep5 to work, everyone but Natsuhi and Krauss (and probably Gohda, but he doesn't count) would have to be in on this conspiracy.

Which wouldn't be too difficult to do. Most of the family members would love to do something like this to Natsuhi and Krauss, Krauss, for being a totalitarian older brother, and Natsuhi... well, most of the family doesn't seem to have a thing against Natsuhi, but I know Eva would probably love to pull one over her. The bitch.
For the servants, I'm sure Kanon would love to do something like this to her, considering how much he appears to hate her. Shannon, after some convincing, might come onboard, considering how much she gets bullied. Genji and Nanjo would be tricky though, as Nanjo doesn't really have a reason to do it, and Genji is the "responsible and devoted butler" of the family. Still, excluding Nanjo, it wouldn't be that difficult to get the servants onboard. Battler can just order them with the power of the head.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

In fact, for most of Ep5 to work, everyone but Natsuhi and Krauss (and probably Gohda, but he doesn't count) would have to be in on this conspiracy.

I swear, Gohda better at least get out of this whole mess in some semblance of one piece. The poor guy has twice the portraits and lines of Genji and half the relevance. Then again, I'm not sure he can be trusted not to blow every conspiracy he's let in on.

Unless he's secretly Genius Gohda.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki

Battler can just order them with the power of the head.

And Battler, of course, is being manipulated by his parents.

This fact could probably be what he reveals at the end of Ep5, actually.

Originally Posted by Renall

Unless he's secretly Genius Gohda.

Your avatar have any relevance to this?

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Your avatar have any relevance to this?

More of a "Magical Gohda Chef" corruption thing, combined with a really bad pun (sound it out).

But actually, if anyone's going to turn out to be a cop, it'd be Gohda. Nanjo has too many ties to people, but Gohda? He doesn't even have family.

His behavior is totally out of keeping for a cop though. An actual policeman would never allow himself to be locked in a shed. Unless he's just a really bad cop. Who happens to be a really good cook.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Renall

But actually, if anyone's going to turn out to be a cop, it'd be Gohda. Nanjo has too many ties to people, but Gohda? He doesn't even have family.

Giving Gohda a purpose would be the best thing Ryukishi'd ever do.

[Laserworm]

Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki

Which wouldn't be too difficult to do. Most of the family members would love to do something like this to Natsuhi and Krauss, Krauss, for being a totalitarian older brother, and Natsuhi... well, most of the family doesn't seem to have a thing against Natsuhi, but I know Eva would probably love to pull one over her. The bitch.
For the servants, I'm sure Kanon would love to do something like this to her, considering how much he appears to hate her. Shannon, after some convincing, might come onboard, considering how much she gets bullied. Genji and Nanjo would be tricky though, as Nanjo doesn't really have a reason to do it, and Genji is the "responsible and devoted butler" of the family. Still, excluding Nanjo, it wouldn't be that difficult to get the servants onboard. Battler can just order them with the power of the head.

Kanon doesn't seem like he hates Natsuhi all that much, if we take that scene where he is rushing to save Battler into account.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Giving Gohda a purpose would be the best thing Ryukishi'd ever do.

I can see it all now.

"We survived! What a miracle!"
"Yes, and now you're all under arrest for embezzlement, conspiracy, fraud, blackmail, assault, and child abuse!"
"Damn you, Inspector Gohda!"

[Laserworm]

Originally Posted by Renall

I can see it all now.

"We survived! What a miracle!"
"Yes, and now you're all under arrest for embezzlement, conspiracy, fraud, blackmail, assault, and child abuse!"
"Damn you, Inspector Gohda!"

yeah that is why it Ry07 said it won't be a happy ending

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Renall

Come on, do you really want to think Battler is that dumb?

You know I think the main problem is that I have more problems with dumb villains than with dumb heroes. A dumb hero can work, a dumb villain just sucks... unless it's a comedy.

And it is even more true when the hero was stated to be incompetent and the villain is supposed to be extremely intelligent.

With the kind of development you are suggesting we have not only a completely clueless Erika, but also a completely clueless Bernkastel.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

With the kind of development you are suggesting we have not only a completely clueless Erika, but also a completely clueless Bernkastel.

Well, we have to factor in a few things. Bern and Lambda have been surprised before, so they're not omniscient. A particularly devious plan could fool them, if what they're being shown is tailored to being exactly what they expect to see.

But even if Bern weren't fooled, she might leave Erika out to dry. She's already shown herself to be quite unfond of Erika, and she likes to torment her almost as much as her enemies. So Erika herself being completely fooled is no problem for me; she is overconfident and has been from the moment she appeared, so thinking she's won is fine. Whether Bern thinks the same doesn't really matter, and if Bern is the GM of ep7, it would seem that she caught on to something going on. She just chose not to bring it up, because she's a jerk.

And we can't prove Lambda wouldn't have just let it happen even if she did know, as it seems like the sort of thing she likes doing to mess with Bern. In ep5 it was fairly clear she was not always operating in concert with Bern, and they've always avowed themselves to be enemies.

Basically, I don't see why anyone fooled by this is fooled because they're stupid. Erika falls to hubris, the witches don't realize what Battler is up to (or do and want to see if it works, because it's interesting), his allies may or may not know but won't say for Beatrice's sake, and Featherinne may have suspected it all along (or, uh, wrote it, depending). The only person who absolutely must be stupid is Battler if Genius Battler isn't true. Everyone else can come out of it fooled but not foolish.

[Jan-Poo]

Why? I don't really get how can that be different.

It's either that the GM is omniscent on what happens in the gameboard or he isn't omniscent.

If it's omniscent, then Bern and Erika are stupid or clueless for not knowing a basic rule of the game. Not to mention Dlanor who always seemed to know how the game works should be clueless as well on this part.
You can't explain this with "pride". If you base your strategy on a false premise you are simply totally clueless. If you don't know something about the battlefield, you don't "suppose" something and create your strategy on that assumption. I think that should be on strategy 101.
And you can't even say it's Battler's great deceit, because he's not the one who made the rules of this game.
If Erika thought she could do stuff under the gamemaster's nose while everyone with a brain would think it's not possible then you can only say Erika is dumb.

And if the GM is not omniscent, then it's actually not the GM's fault. I mean I suppose that Battler knows he's not omniscent (in fact it's not like he shows he find it strange that Erika can do things under his nose), then why is he dumb? What can he do about that?

And if you say he's dumb because he let Erika get the seals, yeah he was dumb, but then... this time it is overconfidence, and that's not me who says this, Dlanor says it.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Why? I don't really get how can that be different.

It's either that the GM is omniscent on what happens in the gameboard or he isn't omniscent.

If it's omniscent, then Bern and Erika are stupid or clueless for not knowing a basic rule of the game. Not to mention Dlanor who always seemed to know how the game works should be clueless as well on this part.
You can't explain this with "pride". If you base your strategy on a false premise you are simply totally clueless. If you don't know something about the battlefield, you don't "suppose" something and create your strategy on that assumption. I think that should be on strategy 101.
And you can't even say it's Battler's great deceit, because he's not the one who made the rules of this game.

It's possible for the Game Master to not necessarily be omniscient as to the goings-on on the board, but for Meta-Battler himself to be. His deeper realization of The Truth means he knows not simply what is possible under a given set of circumstances, but what actually does happen in the Witch's Darkness. Lambda and Bern may simply not be aware that this is how far he has come. They may likewise not have been aware of the extent of understanding Beatrice herself possessed, and are underestimating just how powerful a GM is.

If Erika thought she could do stuff under the gamemaster's nose while everyone with a brain would think it's not possible then you can only say Erika is dumb.

Why? Who told her how the GM works? She's never been the GM herself. And her previous clash with Battler was certainly different. From her perspective, she tried something and it worked. Battler then reacted as though he didn't know what was going on. From Erika's point of view, things work the way she initially assumed them to. Erika would not be stupid for being wrong, merely overconfident.

And if the GM is not omniscent, then it's actually not the GM's fault. I mean I suppose that Battler knows he's not omniscent (in fact it's not like he shows he find it strange that Erika can do things under his nose), then why is he dumb? What can he do about that?

It's just not plausible. Nobody in Beatrice's games ever behaved independently of what Beatrice seemed to expect, desire, or at least was sufficiently prepared to react to. Allowing Erika an undeclared retroactive move makes no sense unless Battler fundamentally misjudged the nature of the pieces on the board (and that this, somehow, permits the pieces to act independently of the GM's designs, which we can't prove). That's contradictory to what ryukishi has said about Battler.

And if you say he's dumb because he let Erika get the seals, yeah he was dumb, but then... this time it is overconfidence, and that's not me who says this, Dlanor says it.

Dlanor says a lot of things, but Battler's response to this sort of criticism suggests to me that he is well aware that the move appears overconfident.

Gross pride and cocksure overconfidence are out of character for Battler. He is confident, and he talks a big game, but he has always been easy to frustrate and fluster and he has always acknowledged when he is in a bad situation or losing. You ask me to either believe that:

1) Battler was both acting grossly out of character and fundamentally mistaken about some critically important detail related to the truth and GMing the game that he made a ridiculous mistake, in direct contradiction with what we've been told about his enlightenment at the end of ep5.

OR

2) No matter what Battler knows or does, he bungles everything, because he's stupid and his character exists to screw up, which is bad writing.

OR

3) Battler had an ulterior motive for his behavior, or a risk which was worth either potentially being entrapped by Erika or actually being entrapped by Erika.

It's not hard for me to know which one I would prefer be true.