History and Counterfactual speculations discussions

[Ithekro]

If I recall, the Soviets were using their tried and true Napoleonic Wars tactic of burn everything useful to the Nazis on the way out. It is a long ways from the Volga to Poland and any useful fields for the German soldiers. While the Russians would in theory have a similar problem on their run back across that region in 1944, they did have the right gauge trains to run on the rails.

Germany's Army only really worked as long at it had momentum. The Russians outnumbered the Germans in almost all areas if I recall, and the Russians had been preparing to invade German Europe at the time the Germans attack in June of 1941. If the Germans delayed, I am positive Stalin would have invaded Germany in 1942.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by DonQuigleone

Well Moscow and Stalingrad are on the Volga. Go beyond them and you've basically taken the Volga river region.

I don't doubt Partisans would be a problem, but put it this way, the rest of Europe was also pretty populated, and had tons of Partisans (Vive la Resistance!), but didn't cause the Germans that much trouble. It certainly would have made a post war occupation hell though.

They are on the Volga, but they are quite far west if you look at how that river curves. The Germans were already at the breaking point as it was. They'd be hard-pressed to send and supply troops any further. Partisans in Europe were in small nations that were easy to traverse, close to supply lines, and had little to no outside support. Partisans in Russia were and would be constantly given the aid of Red Army personnel and supplies. Lastly the Germans treated Russians worse than most countries they had conquered and made no effort to win their trust or loyalty, which made them into great recruits for the resistance.

[Ridwan]

Let's discuss another topic :

Yuan empire launched two failed invasions to Japan in AD 1274 & 1281. Both failures are usually attributed to the storms that damaged both expeditions severely, thus left only a minority of the initial size of invasion troops to face Japanese defense. Therefore, say, had the Mongol forces landed on Kyushu intact on either occasion due to absence of the storm, how would things proceed from there ? Will the Mongols be able to conquer Japan entirely ? Or will their invasion ultimately fail anyway ? Or instead, somewhere in between ?

My own amateur take on the question : even if Kamikaze was absent in either expedition, Mongols would still have difficulties in conquering the whole Japan. Even so, facing an intact Mongol invasion force should still be of significant effect to Japanese history (especially if there were important Japanese figures present in the front line, and any of them should fall). At minimal, more damage inflicted upon the defending Samurai forces would likely to bear internal political consequences on Japanese side. I'm honestly tempted to predict more favorable outcome for the Imperial court, but still suspect that it could've gone the opposite direction instead. On the other hand, should the Mongols prevail over defensive forces in Kyushu, will they be really able to expand beyond ? Seems likely that they'll be able to continue the invasion to Honshu and even reaching Kyoto, but saying that they will subdue the entire Japan is another question. Kyushu, however, seems far enough from Japanese power center and close enough to Asian mainland....

Thoughts ?

[Sumeragi]

I wrote about this back at a certain forum. I'll get the notes from it later.

[DonQuigleone]

They may have been able to conquer Japan similar to how they conquered China.

Ultimately they would have also lost it in a similar fashion. I'd say it would have been extremely difficult for them to manage the region given how far it was from their powerbase. Furthermore, the terrain of Japan(lots of mountains) was not really good for their kind of warfare, so they may have had difficulty conquering it in the first place.

[LeoXiao]

I think Japan would have been difficult to deal with. It's on islands, so reinforcement on the part of the Mongols is more costly. And its people are warlike and prone to put up obstinate resistance. The Mongol troops might take Kyushu and then get annoyed to death by samurai ambushing them in the mountains. They might stay there for several years and then get driven out.

[DonQuigleone]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

I think Japan would have been difficult to deal with. It's on islands, so reinforcement on the part of the Mongols is more costly. And its people are warlike and prone to put up obstinate resistance. The Mongol troops might take Kyushu and then get annoyed to death by samurai ambushing them in the mountains. They might stay there for several years and then get driven out.

Yes, but keep in mind that this is the late 1200s, Samurai, as we know them, did not yet exist. The Samurai were not so skilled in warfare at this stage, I would say.

[Xellos-_^]

As Don said the terrain favors the Japanese but i think like Romans and Britain. The Mongols would be able to establish control over a part of Japan and only be driven when the rest of the Mongol Empire collaspe.

I think a more interesting question would be the development of the Middle East if the Mongol Empire never got off ground? It has been estimated that after the Mongol Invasion it took the middle east around 400 yrs to recover to its pre-invasion population. if the Mongol invasion never took place how different would the Middle East look today.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

I think a more interesting question would be the development of the Middle East if the Mongol Empire never got off ground? It has been estimated that after the Mongol Invasion it took the middle east around 400 yrs to recover to its pre-invasion population. if the Mongol invasion never took place how different would the Middle East look today.

With these sort of ancient scenarios it's better to look at how the area in question would've ended up not in the present day but in the era right after the scenario starts, since a lot of unpredictable things can happen in 800 years.

Regarding the Middle East, my understanding is that it was incredibly scientifically and culturally advanced, especially compared to Europe. Baghdad was a metropolis and a great cultural hub. One likely outcome is that Europe would be more influenced by the Middle East.

Yes, but keep in mind that this is the late 1200s, Samurai, as we know them, did not yet exist. The Samurai were not so skilled in warfare at this stage, I would say.

Oh, didn't know that. But I guess as long as you have no end of men hiding in mountains with javelins and bows it could create the same effect.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by DonQuigleone

Yes, but keep in mind that this is the late 1200s, Samurai, as we know them, did not yet exist. The Samurai were not so skilled in warfare at this stage, I would say.

they need to be that advance to hold off the Mongols int he mountains. The Scots with their Ax and scream in skirts manage to hold off the Romans.

[LeoXiao]

Can someone provide me some sources that do a good job in describing and summarizing Japanese politics around the 1900s to the 1920s? I don't know much about how it worked beyond "get more powerful, a little bit more democratic, then militarists take over and everything gets bad".

[Sumeragi]

LeoXiao, is it for that Communist Japan timeline, or just separate?

[LeoXiao]

It's for the TL. Wikipedia doesn't have very good information on many of the figures of the period, which especially in the case of Japan is problematic because there were a lot of people did various things that may have been important within Japan itself but weren't too famous elsewhere.

The leftist scholar Takahashi Kamekichi, for instance, has no wiki article despite having come up with the very interesting idea of petty imperialism.

[Ridwan]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

I wrote about this back at a certain forum. I'll get the notes from it later.

I hope you won't get distracted by another emergency business trip this time

Originally Posted by DonQuigleone

They may have been able to conquer Japan similar to how they conquered China.

Ultimately they would have also lost it in a similar fashion. I'd say it would have been extremely difficult for them to manage the region given how far it was from their powerbase. Furthermore, the terrain of Japan(lots of mountains) was not really good for their kind of warfare, so they may have had difficulty conquering it in the first place.

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

I think Japan would have been difficult to deal with. It's on islands, so reinforcement on the part of the Mongols is more costly. And its people are warlike and prone to put up obstinate resistance. The Mongol troops might take Kyushu and then get annoyed to death by samurai ambushing them in the mountains. They might stay there for several years and then get driven out.

I'd say it will depend on how will be the shape of Japanese politics after Kyushu. Will it drive the opinions to reach consensus to act as one, or instead splintering them apart ? After all, the defeat should tarnish the prestige of the Taira Shogunate, which acted against the desire of Imperial court to simply submit to Mongol demands. The later of course, was already politically impotent by this time around, but they still vyed for return to temporal power, which they only completely abandoned a while later IOTL. I also wonder what will become of Zen Buddhism as well, which was provided a boost by victory over Mongols...

Kyushu is maybe mountainous, but it's also small enough, and just across the strait from Korea. And knowing that Korea had been involved in the whole project since day one (they were the ones who encouraged the Khan to invade and provided all the navy after all. Oh, and the then Korean king was the Khan's son in law), I think we should assume Korean troops as part, or even majority of the garrison in the occupied territories. I won't even count out that Kyushu will become essentially or even de jure Korean fiefdom, assuming the conquest won't make it beyond.

This is, of course, all sketchy extrapolation of mine based on my superficial grasp over this part of Japanese history (and Japanese history in general). But this semi-overdone topic has never gotten the actual dissection it deserves...

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

I think a more interesting question would be the development of the Middle East if the Mongol Empire never got off ground? It has been estimated that after the Mongol Invasion it took the middle east around 400 yrs to recover to its pre-invasion population. if the Mongol invasion never took place how different would the Middle East look today.

Iraq was already in general environmental and thus political decline by the time the Mongols came. But averting the utter diabolical destruction Mongols unleashed upon it will still make it a much better place contra OTL. They didn't only massacred everyone, but also salted all the fields, dismantled the irrigation infrastructure and basically exterminated the intellectual class. If this didn't happen, Iraq will at least remain a stable and prestigious if decadent urban society where the Caliph resides, vulnerable to patronage of any nearby power(by this time it was the Kharazm Sultanate) but also with a chance for resurgence later, instead of a turbulent one dominated by tribal and nomadic polities post-Mongol.

[Sumeragi]

Here is an edited and compiled version of the various posts and responses I made on the Mongol Invasion of Japan over at A Certain AH Forum:


The Mongol-Goryeo forces were pretty close to taking all of Kyushu in the first invasion, but it failed when the Mongol commanders chickened out and ordered the retreat to the boats, eventually being sunk. The second invasion, on the other hand, had almost no chance of succeeding, with the Japanese being ready.

If the Mongols hadn't boarded their ships during the typhoon of the first invasion, they could have taken Kyushu in that attempt. There seemed to have been a clash between the Koreans (who advocated staying on land) and the Mongols (going back onto the ships), and OTL was decided by the Mongols. With the Japanese forces having their back to the wall (only one fortress remained), an intact invasion force would have been able to conquer Kyushu and perhaps head for Western Honshu.

The one change which would be needed to have the first invasion be successful (not necessarily conquering Japan, but succeeding in invading Japan): Don't get on the ships. Really, the thing was that Kyushu was about to fall, with reinforcement being weeks away. One more push by the Mongol-Goryeo forces would have meant complete occupation of Kyushu.



Should the invasion had succeeded, I can see Korean influence being dominating in Japan. The unique position of Goryeo within the Yuan sphere had allowed the Goryeo king to have the title "King of Shenyang," a basis that would later result in Yi Songgye's rebellion when he was sent to invade Liaodong. Given that the most important fighters of the Mongol forces were the Koreans, and it was the Goryeo King at the time (Chungnyeol) who ultimately pushed for the invasion of Japan, I can certainly see the Goryeo court having great influence over the affairs of the conquered Japanese islands.



The question is, how would the Goryeo court have influence in the conquered parts of Japan. I can see three ways to this:

1. Trade/Cultural exchange: With the subjection of Japan, the threats from the Wakou pirates would have decreased, and as such trade and cultural exchange would most likely have been higher. Korea would most likely have recovered far faster from the damages of the Mongolian invasions, and the higher population would only have to face the dangers mostly from the north. Also, influence would naturally grow.

2. Population movement: The "King of Shenyang" title was originally given because of the large amounts of Koreans who moved to and lived in Liaodong. If Japan is occupied, I can see a sizable number of Koreans going to Kyushu, and setting up communities. This means that Koreans would be setting root in Japan as never before since the fall of Baekje, and that in itself would be another strength for Goryeo.

3. Title: It was the Goryeo King that pushed for the invasion, and as such he would have a say in the administration of Japan. Even a small role would have large repercussions, and there is always the possibility that he would have received an honorable title concerning Japan. This would most likely link Korea to Japan. Add in possible intermarriages between the royal families of Yuan, Goryeo, and Japan, and you have in-laws connecting from Dadu to Kyoto.



On the Second Invasion:

I doubt they would have gotten even Kyushu. While the Japanese were outnumbered, they had the advantage of being in fortified positions. In addition, the Mongol strategy was not some broad assault as they did in the first invasion, but more a multiple landing one which played into the Japanese advantage. Having too many men (initial starting force of 140,000) actually hindered the Mongol operation rather than help it. Furthermore, it was the design of the ship, not the construction time, that doomed the Mongols during the typhoon. The Song barely used sea-worth ship, instead focusing on the flat-bottomed river boats. As indicated by records, it was almost only the Goryeo sea-going boats that survived the typhoon and returned home.



In Korea, there is a multi-volume AH novel where the First Invasion does succeed, turning into a Korea Wank with a Goryeo Empire stretching from Korea to the Pacific Islands and more. I'll see if I can get my hands on more details about this.



Finally, something relevant that I wrote for a thread by the title of "Famous Insults that Never Were":

The Winds of the Gods have saved us!
- Japanese commander before being overrun by the Koreans who had disobeyed Mongol orders to board the ships, effectively making Kyushu part of Goryeo.

[NoemiChan]

Uhmm... Question.

If Alexander the Great, continue and decided to conquer India, would he ever had a chance or he might have ended up dead by being step down by elephant????

It was said that other than the mutiny... the rumor about facing a lot more of these animals made Alexander change his mind to proceed for his dream...

[Ridwan]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Here is an edited and compiled version of the various posts and responses I made on the Mongol Invasion of Japan over at A Certain AH Forum:


The Mongol-Goryeo forces were pretty close to taking all of Kyushu in the first invasion, but it failed when the Mongol commanders chickened out and ordered the retreat to the boats, eventually being sunk. The second invasion, on the other hand, had almost no chance of succeeding, with the Japanese being ready.

If the Mongols hadn't boarded their ships during the typhoon of the first invasion, they could have taken Kyushu in that attempt. There seemed to have been a clash between the Koreans (who advocated staying on land) and the Mongols (going back onto the ships), and OTL was decided by the Mongols. With the Japanese forces having their back to the wall (only one fortress remained), an intact invasion force would have been able to conquer Kyushu and perhaps head for Western Honshu.

The one change which would be needed to have the first invasion be successful (not necessarily conquering Japan, but succeeding in invading Japan): Don't get on the ships. Really, the thing was that Kyushu was about to fall, with reinforcement being weeks away. One more push by the Mongol-Goryeo forces would have meant complete occupation of Kyushu.



Should the invasion had succeeded, I can see Korean influence being dominating in Japan. The unique position of Goryeo within the Yuan sphere had allowed the Goryeo king to have the title "King of Shenyang," a basis that would later result in Yi Songgye's rebellion when he was sent to invade Liaodong. Given that the most important fighters of the Mongol forces were the Koreans, and it was the Goryeo King at the time (Chungnyeol) who ultimately pushed for the invasion of Japan, I can certainly see the Goryeo court having great influence over the affairs of the conquered Japanese islands.



The question is, how would the Goryeo court have influence in the conquered parts of Japan. I can see three ways to this:

1. Trade/Cultural exchange: With the subjection of Japan, the threats from the Wakou pirates would have decreased, and as such trade and cultural exchange would most likely have been higher. Korea would most likely have recovered far faster from the damages of the Mongolian invasions, and the higher population would only have to face the dangers mostly from the north. Also, influence would naturally grow.

2. Population movement: The "King of Shenyang" title was originally given because of the large amounts of Koreans who moved to and lived in Liaodong. If Japan is occupied, I can see a sizable number of Koreans going to Kyushu, and setting up communities. This means that Koreans would be setting root in Japan as never before since the fall of Baekje, and that in itself would be another strength for Goryeo.

3. Title: It was the Goryeo King that pushed for the invasion, and as such he would have a say in the administration of Japan. Even a small role would have large repercussions, and there is always the possibility that he would have received an honorable title concerning Japan. This would most likely link Korea to Japan. Add in possible intermarriages between the royal families of Yuan, Goryeo, and Japan, and you have in-laws connecting from Dadu to Kyoto.



On the Second Invasion:

I doubt they would have gotten even Kyushu. While the Japanese were outnumbered, they had the advantage of being in fortified positions. In addition, the Mongol strategy was not some broad assault as they did in the first invasion, but more a multiple landing one which played into the Japanese advantage. Having too many men (initial starting force of 140,000) actually hindered the Mongol operation rather than help it. Furthermore, it was the design of the ship, not the construction time, that doomed the Mongols during the typhoon. The Song barely used sea-worth ship, instead focusing on the flat-bottomed river boats. As indicated by records, it was almost only the Goryeo sea-going boats that survived the typhoon and returned home.



In Korea, there is a multi-volume AH novel where the First Invasion does succeed, turning into a Korea Wank with a Goryeo Empire stretching from Korea to the Pacific Islands and more. I'll see if I can get my hands on more details about this.



Finally, something relevant that I wrote for a thread by the title of "Famous Insults that Never Were":

The Winds of the Gods have saved us!
- Japanese commander before being overrun by the Koreans who had disobeyed Mongol orders to board the ships, effectively making Kyushu part of Goryeo.

I've suspected the impotentiality of the second invasion as much. Besides, even if it should succeed, by that time Japan was already mobilized socially to Shogunate's advantage, so I doubt there was any hole for the Imperial court to exploit. Successful first invasion however, would probably be a real blow to the Tairas' face that I'm quite suspectful that a civil war will likely follow, which in turn will render Honshu open to Mongol-Korean advance, but I'm not yet married to that idea and still personally prefer Korean Kyushu scenario. Either way however, Goryeo will come out the biggest winner. All of Japan or not, everything east of Tsushima will be their "domain", so to speak, in whatever fashion they will manage.

I always like the idea of a stronger Korea and more open Japan. I guess that in the long term, this PoD will eventually benefit Japan since they'll be exposed to Korean and mainland technologies and sophistications earlier then they did IOTL, in which they only acquire some of them through brutal plunder and kidnappings of Korean artists and craftsmen during Imjin War. In this scenario, I think Japan will stay opened to the outside world pretty much indefinitely. More interlinking with the rest of eastern Asia especially through royal marriages will drag them deeper into regional politics and even dynastically-excused territorial conflicts. Perhaps, this Japan will actually stand a chance to leave a participation mark in the competition for Chinese Mandate of Heaven during one of the later warlord periods, depending on how their relations with Korea would be going at the moment.

Another curiosity I have regarding this PoD would be how it will impact Yuan Empire itself. If nothing else, it will boost their confidence for overseas subducation. The next target after Japan would be Java, so I wonder whether Mongol expedition here will happen ahead of OTL schedule, probably enabling them to meet Kertanegara of Singhasari himself (IOTL Mongol invasion happened 9 years after the second invasion to Japan, 2 years after Kertanegara got overthrown by a Kediri claimant).

Originally Posted by GenjiChan

Uhmm... Question.

If Alexander the Great, continue and decided to conquer India, would he ever had a chance or he might have ended up dead by being step down by elephant????

It was said that other than the mutiny... the rumor about facing a lot more of these animals made Alexander change his mind to proceed for his dream...

Everything was against him in India, every single thing you mention. At the very best case, there might be a remote possibility that he might be able to convince and keep enough of his followers to continue, and then manage to gather some Indian allies in the way, and then carving up a sufficient domain, afterwhich will may either have to be abandoned, or be kept in expense of the previous empire west of Afghanistan, or perhaps he'll be handling over the Indian affairs to the assigned line up of generals and then personally leave back for Babylon. But I'm pushing my optimism to the limits here

[NoemiChan]

Originally Posted by Aegir

Everything was against him in India, every single thing you mention. At the very best case, there might be a remote possibility that he might be able to convince and keep enough of his followers to continue, and then manage to gather some Indian allies in the way, and then carving up a sufficient domain, afterwhich will may either have to be abandoned, or be kept in expense of the previous empire west of Afghanistan, or perhaps he'll be handling over the Indian affairs to the assigned line up of generals and then personally leave back for Babylon. But I'm pushing my optimism to the limits here

I read one rumor that the next Raja he will be facing if he cross a river has a horde of 9K elephants and ready for battle... I can't even imagine the area that will cover....

[Ridwan]

Originally Posted by GenjiChan

I read one rumor that the next Raja he will be facing if he cross a river has a horde of 9K elephants and ready for battle... I can't even imagine the area that will cover....

Wise of him to retreat then. He really should've content with Persia.

[NoemiChan]

Originally Posted by Aegir

Wise of him to retreat then. He really should've content with Persia.

He wished to see the ends of the Earth which he thought was only 1000k away... that's what I think.... damn... he may end up seeing his own end..