North Korea Crisis

[Irenicus]

You people say it like South Korea *can't* hold for 7 minutes.

Even if the US is out of the picture for some reason, the Republic of Korea armed forces are actually much more likely to win a prolonged war than the starving Best Korea. It will just cost that much more in lives, in the destruction to Seoul, and so on.

And even the so-called "Zerg rush" ignores the fact that the ROK possesses, aside from obvious technological superiority, mandatory conscription -- in theory, essentially the entire male population can be returned to service with relatively minimal effort. It will not be a war of many against few.

/obviously I prefer no war at all, but I think that doesn't need to be stated every post.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

You mean Shrike ARMs? The US doesn't have enough. Besides aircraft are not as effective in mountain terrains; the best you can effectively are Apaches/Cobras/Little Birds with a dash of Chinooks to deploy large number of Airborne/Rangers on the mountains.

Besides, the NK are using VHF radars instead of the UHF bands, meaning which there are more concealable radar signals which are difficult to home in on. The dense foliage of the North makes it worse.

The US can make this easier by training more mountain/ski troops (10th Mt Div) + Rangers. Mountain Warfare is treacherous, combined with jungle elements means making a headway in is incredibly difficult. With an urban setting in the South, NK has all the advantage if they can knock out enough US/SK aircraft before US reactivates one of their trump cards : the Iowa Class Battlecruiser, which can drop un-interceptable shells over hundreds of clicks.

But it's still doable. And you do need to reduce their radar systems if you want to achieve air superiority.

No one's saying you can bomb DPRK into submission. Nutjob LeMay tried in the 1950 war only to achieve nothing but murdering countless civilians and giving himself a hard on.

The nightmare on land though....that's like the biggest playground for all those special operators fresh out of Afghan mountains



Anyway, is no one even attempting to publicly talk to fat boy in Pyongyang? I mean, has anyone even tried to ask him what he wants?

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

The whole thing is zerg rush until they are so close is over. Remember how the Russians beat the completely technically superior Germans? Yes, it was the winter, but the second major reason was they went point blank range with the Germans so close Air support/Artillery became impossible. I believe the Germans once bleakly joked "we capture the living room, but there is still fire fight in the kitchen"

Are you really going to open fire on Seoul if it is full of NK troops?

That was in Stalingrad. It won't work outside the cities

[SaintessHeart]

SK can only "hold the line" with their numbers; and theier tech supremacy is their advantage.

And I call BS when the article notes about the NKSF are notorious for their headshots. Personal experience tells me that the SKSF can do the same - with their automatic Daewoo K2s weighted down by 2kg suppressors. So does the HK Flying Tigers, British SAS (who can swap weapons and do it on the fly) and the US Navy SEALs.

Silhouette reflecting is not a difficult technique to learn. And applying it to shooting someone in the head is not impossible, just that it required months of practice. Lapsing in consistency is still like riding a bicycle , you can pick that up again with 100-200 rounds and half a week.

[ArchmageXin]

SK can only "hold the line" with their numbers; and their tech supremacy is their advantage.

But North Korea isn't "that" behind. Sure, they might not be able to go toe-to-toe with the U.S Air Force, but the average man with two boots is still "man with two boots". Unless SK imported Gundams or Mobile Armor piloted by Lolis from Japan while I am not looking .

That was in Stalingrad. It won't work outside the cities

The entire NK+ SK is about the size of Idaho. This is not the Eastern Front we are talking about. Once you hold key cities it will be very hard to dislodge them without massive SK civilian causalities.

Also, remember Afghanistan and Iraq, and tell me what good did U.S Air Power against insurgents in dense urban areas.

Even if the US is out of the picture for some reason, the Republic of Korea armed forces are actually much more likely to win a prolonged war than the starving Best Korea. It will just cost that much more in lives, in the destruction to Seoul, and so on.

I have strong doubts NK troops are starving...their people probably are, but not their troops. Also, the reverse is also true, would you bet on a SK trooper who have his IPOD listen to his favorite idols all day, and eat at any restaurant any day of the week while waiting for his conscription period is up, or harden grunts from NK who is taught live and breathe for King Kim and train over and over?

mandatory conscription -- in theory, essentially the entire male population can be returned to service with relatively minimal effort. It will not be a war of many against few.

That apply to both countries you know. And NK can also conscript kids and women too.

Now mind you, ultimately I am not a fan of NK. I would like to see Kim and his regime dismantled once and for all. All I am pointing out getting ridding North Korea would be a ALOT harder than say, crushing Saddam's army.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

I dunno if this article is to believed, but this SK soldier apparently think a direct North Korean invasion cannot be defended against.

http://www.vice.com/read/how-to-prep...orean-invasion

I'm somewhat skeptical.

For one thing, this doesn't seem like an entirely professionally written article. It's mainly talking about strategic stuff, but there's ALLOT of hyperbole. Plus "anonymous soldier" without any particular credential doesn't exactly sound too convincing.

Actually this bit makes me really doubt this is legit.

VICE: So where does South Korea keep all of their soldiers?
Anonymous soldier: During a South Korean marine’s 24-month conscription they patrol a piece of real estate assigned to them on the DMZ (Demilitarized Zone). A company is made up of around 120 infantry soldiers defending South Korea from a potential invasion by the North. It’s the most fortified place on Earth, with something like 10 million installed and active landmines.

Really. So the ENTIRE South Korean army is just sitting there on the border? This doesn't exactly sound like somebody answering a question, so much as being part of a long running tirade.

[SaintessHeart]

North Korea's offensive force is far behind, by 30-40 years. Their combined arms is infantry centric, that is why they train their soldiers into superhumans.

Their tanks are temporary cover for anything less than a 20mm. Their infantry are taught to rush in an kill with bare hands, that is why SK put alot of emphasis on CQC on multiple opponents. And also that is why the SK still have bullet/flak firing AA guns that can be deleveled to use as anti-infantry weapons.

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

Really. So the ENTIRE South Korean army is just sitting there on the border? This doesn't exactly sound like somebody answering a question, so much as being part of a long running tirade.

I think you have heard of the term "Defence Squadron". That is what they are. They also have an internal QRF of no more than 2 sections that are to reinforce any position that are facing surges, or to chase retreating probes by the enemy.

They have only 1 objective - hold for as long as they are commanded. If they succeed, they will be absorbed into the reinforcing division under that unit. If they are to be wiped, they are to take out as many as they can.

It is a suicide unit, single battle use only.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

North Korea's offensive force is far behind, by 30-40 years. Their combined arms is infantry centric, that is why they train their soldiers into superhumans.

Their tanks are temporary cover for anything less than a 20mm. Their infantry are taught to rush in an kill with bare hands, that is why SK put alot of emphasis on CQC on multiple opponents. And also that is why the SK still have bullet/flak firing AA guns that can be deleveled to use as anti-infantry weapons.

Boots on the ground still matters. We can't just assume Air Force is a magic eraser that can end all conflict without a problem. If America couldn't carpet bomb Afghanistan into a giant graveyard due to political reasons, I doubt turning South Korea into a glowing hole in the ground would be even less acceptable.

[Irenicus]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

I have strong doubts NK troops are starving...their people probably are, but not their troops. Also, the reverse is also true, would you bet on a SK trooper who have his IPOD listen to his favorite idols all day, and eat at any restaurant any day of the week while waiting for his conscription period is up, or harden grunts from NK who is taught live and breathe for King Kim and train over and over?

The thing about hardcore state propaganda-fed vs "weak" modern humans is just a stupid myth. Humans adapt damn fast under fire -- or die. Yes, I will bet Mr. iPod.

Because see, "man with two boots" is actually "man with two boots + lots of heavy artillery" vs "man with two boots + superior artillery + superior air force + the Americans' overwhelming firepower coming in 7 minutes away, oh shit."

There is no possible way North Korea can take Seoul in seven minutes, three days, a week, a bloody month, whatever, before the Americans arrive in force. Infantry centric conventional warfare died with the maturing of the air era.

It's not like they have air bombardment-proof tunnels into the heart of Seoul across the DMZ line.

"Cleaning up" is different, but you're arguing it as if NK can choose to occupy Seoul if it wants to. Nuh-uh, it can't. It can *really* hurt Seoul, but it's not about to *take* it.

That apply to both countries you know. And NK can also conscript kids and women too.

Now mind you, ultimately I am not a fan of NK. I would like to see Kim and his regime dismantled once and for all. All I am pointing out getting ridding North Korea would be a ALOT harder than say, crushing Saddam's army.

And I'm saying you're dismissing how well militarized South Korea is. There's a world of difference between one versus ten or twenty, and one versus two or three.

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Boots on the ground still matters. We can't just assume Air Force is a magic eraser that can end all conflict without a problem. If America couldn't carpet bomb Afghanistan into a giant graveyard due to political reasons, I doubt turning South Korea into a glowing hole in the ground would be even less acceptable.

Shock and awe annihilated Saddam's army and broke his military machine very, very quickly. Similar things happened to the Taliban.

The part where the Americans had problems with were the occupation and counterinsurgency.

Vietnam is different, but the Americans were fighting in jungles and in well tunneled "enemy territory" (which SK is most definitely not).

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

North Korea's offensive force is far behind, by 30-40 years. Their combined arms is infantry centric, that is why they train their soldiers into superhumans.

If you can train people into being superhuman, it's not really super human, is it?

And quite frankly, this current generation of North Korean boys who grew up malnourished don't exactly seem like prime candidates for super human training.

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Their tanks are temporary cover for anything less than a 20mm. Their infantry are taught to rush in an kill with bare hands, that is why SK put alot of emphasis on CQC on multiple opponents. And also that is why the SK still have bullet/flak firing AA guns that can be deleveled to use as anti-infantry weapons.

...in case you haven't noticed, April first was a couple days ago.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Boots on the ground still matters. We can't just assume Air Force is a magic eraser that can end all conflict without a problem. If America couldn't carpet bomb Afghanistan into a giant graveyard due to political reasons, I doubt turning South Korea into a glowing hole in the ground would be even less acceptable.

I know it is McNamara's fallacy to bank on ratios, but the current kill ratio for SK:NK infantry wise is 1:4.5.

That is the best simulation we can do while both sides are waving their sabres. We simply don't know to what extent how both armies will fare because the border might or might not be a Battle of Tra Binh Dong.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

The entire NK+ SK is about the size of Idaho. This is not the Eastern Front we are talking about. Once you hold key cities it will be very hard to dislodge them without massive SK civilian causalities.

I am saying....you cannot hope to beat NK by taking its cities alone.

And the hugging tactic simply reduces effectiveness of firepower, that's all. It's still easier for western forces to retake ROK than to do the same against the North

Also, the reverse is also true, would you bet on a SK trooper who have his IPOD listen to his favorite idols all day, and eat at any restaurant any day of the week while waiting for his conscription period is up, or harden grunts from NK who is taught live and breathe for King Kim and train over and over?

Keep stereotyping like that or banking on such stereotypes and you have a really terrible planner

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Boots on the ground still matters. We can't just assume Air Force is a magic eraser that can end all conflict without a problem. If America couldn't carpet bomb Afghanistan into a giant graveyard due to political reasons, I doubt turning South Korea into a glowing hole in the ground would be even less acceptable.

The problem in Afghanistan is that the US is fighting an insurgency that'd blended in with the local population. That's not something you can really bomb.

Hundreds of thousands of North Korean infantry trying to stage large scale regimental infantry attacks into South Korea? That's not nearly as inconspicuous.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

The problem in Afghanistan is that the US is fighting an insurgency that'd blended in with the local population. That's not something you can really bomb.

Hundreds of thousands of North Korean infantry trying to stage large scale regimental infantry attacks into South Korea? That's not nearly as inconspicuous.

Not for the 130,000 SOF blended in with the Southerners. That is their trump card. The nuke is meant for if this fails.

It will be incredibly painful for both sides, so it is actually a one-shot attack.

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

If you can train people into being superhuman, it's not really super human, is it?

And quite frankly, this current generation of North Korean boys who grew up malnourished don't exactly seem like prime candidates for super human training.
...in case you haven't noticed, April first was a couple days ago.

That is the best assessment I can do for an overwhelming infantry force vs an advanced combined armed force, assuming each side is to play their strength.

Murphy's Law can't be ignored, that is why I agree with Hagel's call for seriousness.

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

And NK can also conscript kids and women too.

Well, you know what they say:

Once that first bullet goes past your head, politics and all that shit just goes right out the window (Eric Bana, as Sgt. Norm "Hoot" Hooten)

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. (George S. Patton)

If NK are really willing to go this far to die for their country, then no one has to back down among US/SK forces whenever they see anyone armed and hostile... because the only way to survive inside that kind of mess is to shoot at your enemy before he/she does.

We can also discuss for hours about NK's SOF blended here and there in the South, but who says the ROK has not already done the same up in the North? Those guys are fully autonomous and received joint training with the best too. For all that I know and with a new South Korean president who doesn't give a rat's about North Korean lives as long as her country is the only thing that matters, there might be instructions already given to those ROKSOF guys to be ready to hit targets that we may not suspect as Westerners.

[Irenicus]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Not for the 130,000 SOF blended in with the Southerners. That is their trump card. The nuke is meant for if this fails.

And how exactly are you going to cross the DMZ with 130,000 elite special force insurgents-to-be unnoticed again?

And for the last time, North Korea does not possess an overwhelming infantry force. That would imply overwhelming numbers, parity in infantry military hardware, and superior operational capabilities -- enough to counter modern combined arms.

I leave seriousness to the generals -- if they aren't serious about an obvious military threat, they might as well be court-martialled. I challenge alarmist and vaguely gleefully militarist predictions of some sort of epic struggle.

In any case, it's not like I believe this will escalate into a war anyway, unless someone does something very, very stupid.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

The entire NK+ SK is about the size of Idaho. This is not the Eastern Front we are talking about. Once you hold key cities it will be very hard to dislodge them without massive SK civilian causalities.

Idaho starts looking pretty fucking big when you have to face the prospect of marching across it. The Chinese managed quite a bit during the Korean war thanks to veteran light infantry...but even they eventually got slogged down because foot armies have VERY short supply lines.

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

I have strong doubts NK troops are starving...their people probably are, but not their troops. Also, the reverse is also true, would you bet on a SK trooper who have his IPOD listen to his favorite idols all day, and eat at any restaurant any day of the week while waiting for his conscription period is up, or harden grunts from NK who is taught live and breathe for King Kim and train over and over?

The probelm isn't even active starvation. The problem is childhood malnutrition. Severe malnutrition while going through a growth spurt will mess you up physically in more than just being shorter than average.

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Not for the 130,000 SOF blended in with the Southerners. That is their trump card. The nuke is meant for if this fails.

How the bloody fuck do over a hundred thousand North Korean commandos infiltrate and *blend in* with the South Korean population? Will South Korean highways suddenly be swamped by thousands of covert command hitchhikers marching shoulder to shoulder down the road while singing about what normal South Korean civillians they are? Infiltration operations into enemy territory do not scale up like that.

I'm reminded of that scene in Project A-ko where all the *secret* agents of earth infiltrate the alien ship. Literal mobs of inconspicuous guys in suits hanging around. The joke there was literally how implausible it was for anybody to ignore that many guys sneaking around.

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

That is the best assessment I can do for an overwhelming infantry force vs an advanced combined armed force, assuming each side is to play their strength.

I'll be honest man. Your best isn't very good.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

Well, you know what they say:

Once that first bullet goes past your head, politics and all that shit just goes right out the window (Eric Bana, as Sgt. Norm "Hoot" Hooten)

The object of war is not to die for your country but to make the other bastard die for his. (George S. Patton)

If NK are really willing to go this far to die for their country, then no one has to back down among US/SK forces whenever they see anyone armed and hostile... because the only way to survive inside that kind of mess is to shoot at your enemy before he/she does.

We can also discuss for hours about NK's SOF blended here and there in the South, but who says the ROK has not already done the same up in the North? Those guys are fully autonomous and received joint training with the best too. For all that I know and with a new South Korean president who doesn't give a rat's about North Korean lives as long as her country is the only thing that matters, there might be instructions already given to those ROKSOF guys to be ready to hit in targets we may not suspect as Westerners.

What I think is that the South is banking too much on Combat Police/SWAT and the NIS Special Teams to deal with these well-trained terrorists. I may be wrong and that theae units are able to operate well enough with little or no SKSF help, but the cynic in me says the NK cells are too dynamic for that.

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

I'm reminded of that scene in Project A-ko where all the *secret* agents of earth infiltrate the alien ship. Literal mobs of inconspicuous guys in suits hanging around. The joke there was literally how implausible it was for anybody to ignore that many guys sneaking around.
I'll be honest man. Your best isn't very good.

They operate in cells and not everyone goes out.

Most just stay at home to coordinate; their number is probably used to attack different places in different states all at once to overload the police force, draw the army in and force martial law and chaos, meaning less troops for the frontline.

[Terrestrial Dream]

Originally Posted by Irenicus

In any case, it's not like I believe this will escalate into a war anyway, unless someone does something very, very stupid.

It won't, all this discussion about potential war, while interesting, is pointless.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Like I said....it will either die down with no solution. Or someone actually approaches fat boy officially and opens up communication. Don't see what's so bad about trying the latter myself...

How the bloody fuck do over a hundred thousand North Korean commandos infiltrate and *blend in* with the South Korean population? Will South Korean highways suddenly be swamped by thousands of covert command hitchhikers marching shoulder to shoulder down the road while singing about what normal South Korean civillians they are? Infiltration operations into enemy territory do not scale up like that.

You think...if they do use that strategy, they will be so obvious about it? There's plenty of ways you can infiltrate a country, going the roundabout way from international entry routes, fake papers, sleeper agents etc. How many tourists, foreign business men etc etc. go in and out of a normal country's borders a day?

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Terrestrial Dream

It won't, all this discussion about potential war, while interesting, is pointless.

KJU doesn't look very bright to me.