[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Hareoic]

Originally Posted by zeroexia

for me, i believe that Ryukishi07 probably will give us an epic revelation that will make everybody go.....WHAT?!!!!

my take is that all naku koro ni have the Hinamizawa virus at fault. Imagine if all the characters in the end turn out to have Hinamizawa virus.
Symptoms of Hinamizawa virus could be to blame for everything. People seeing things, killing each other, etc. Specifically Lv. 4 .However there could always be Oyashiro-sama Hanyuu types in the story just evil. That meaning true supernatural beings.

He specifically stated in an interview that he won't pull the Hinamizawa Syndrome trick again.

[Metaler]

The subway theory is actually pretty good. I just believe that if there really is a subway system in Rokkenjima, then it doesn't connect to outside the island. Not even Kinzo has enough money to do such thing, I think. Unless he bribed the government.

[Jan-Poo]

Yeah I'd say it is absolutely impossible that a subway connects to the outside. A fast boat needs 30 minutes to get there from Niijima, that must be quite a distance. At that time not even the great Seikan tunnel (which was the longest underwater tunnel for a while) was built how could there be such a thing already?

[Workworkwork]

Originally Posted by zeroexia

for me, i believe that Ryukishi07 probably will give us an epic revelation that will make everybody go.....WHAT?!!!!

my take is that all naku koro ni have the Hinamizawa virus at fault. Imagine if all the characters in the end turn out to have Hinamizawa virus.
Symptoms of Hinamizawa virus could be to blame for everything. People seeing things, killing each other, etc. Specifically Lv. 4 .However there could always be Oyashiro-sama Hanyuu types in the story just evil. That meaning true supernatural beings.

...Recycling the same tweest? That's hardly a shocking revelation.

[Metaler]

I was thinking about something regarding all the EPs (except EP5, which I haven't read yet, and which is also the reason I'm not posting this in the Spoilers thread), specifically Maria's withered rose: I noticed that Beato uses some kind of accessory on her head which resembles a rose (or some other flower, which would destroy my theory). Maybe she used Maria's rose as said accessory? Because this really seems like a big coincidence.

Maybe I'm wrong... But it's just a quick theory I thought of. ^^'

[Arkwright]

Originally Posted by ijriims

For all the intermediate murders, most were done by Genji in EP1 & 2,

Regarding Ep1: Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!

Actually, I'm pretty sure there was discussion about this before, but how does a Kyrie-centric theory explain the events of Episode 1?

I don't remember all of the problems being covered so I was probably never really satisfied with the answer.

Those being,

Regarding unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist! I'm pretty sure this was mentioned before and I know a lot of people attempt to claim fuzziness regarding the definition of a "corpse" and other things. However "body double" is not a vague term, that means anything that involves passing something else off as your own body is disallowed here.

Even though it's a bit of a stretch, I guess you could also say "Well, the identities of unidentified corpses are guaranteed, but what about unidentified living people?" However, there was another aspect to the first twilight, which to my knowledge was never mentioned again after the Episode 1 tea party, so I forgot about it for a while, and I don't really see people mention it. Specifically, after the first twilight's "corpses" were discovered, they were locked back up inside the shed with a new lock. The only key happened to be given into the care of Natsuhi, the final murder victim. So unless she used the key or lent it to someone else, they were still stuck there.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

Regarding Ep1: Genji, Kumasawa, and Nanjo are not murderers!

Actually, I'm pretty sure there was discussion about this before, but how does a Kyrie-centric theory explain the events of Episode 1?

I don't remember all of the problems being covered so I was probably never really satisfied with the answer.

Those being,

Regarding unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist! I'm pretty sure this was mentioned before and I know a lot of people attempt to claim fuzziness regarding the definition of a "corpse" and other things. However "body double" is not a vague term, that means anything that involves passing something else off as your own body is disallowed here.

My latest response is that this red texts Regarding unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist!, Beatrice was using it to rebuke Battler's account on 6-8 twilights that Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo that they had not died but using body-double trick to fake death. In fact, when Battler accounted for 2nd twilight that someone from the 1st twilight killed Eva and Hideyoshi then hid somewhere in the room, Beatrice did not show any disagreement at all.

Then Lambda, because of her intention not to let Battler win this game, use Beatrice's red text but re-interpret it as applicable to the whole episode1, while in fact the contexts suggested that the red texts should be only used for 6-8 twilights at all. She successfully fooled Battler and readers

Spoiler for spoiler:

until the end of EP5, when Battler realized all the truth from Lambda and Bern intentionally confusing him throughout the episode by using red texts

.

So anyone from episode 1 could still put out the trick without contradicting Beatrice's red texts. Lambda's re-interpretion was false.

I don't need Genji to be murderer in EP1, as long as Kyrie was alive in EP1 till the end.

----------------------------------------

I merely need Kyrie to be the mastermind and real Beatrice, not necessarily murderers. As long as someone else could accomplish her plan (Genji), Ep2 can be explained. I think the fact that she died in Ep2 was because Rosa accidentally murdered all the adults inside the chapel. She knew the truth from Genji and Shannon afterwards (Shannon was told to impose as suit-Beatrice in that episode.)

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ijriims

My latest response is that this red texts Regarding unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist!, Beatrice was using it to rebuke Battler's account on 6-8 twilights that Genji, Kumasawa and Nanjo that they had not died but using body-double trick to fake death.

"Therefore, no body double tricks exist" doesn't sound like it's up to that kind of interpretation, to be honest.

I can see it only applying to those twilights if she said "they didn't use body doubles", but she said "no body double tricks exist".

"Regarding unidentified corpses" seems to apply to all of them, as well, the way she words it. There are no unidentifiable corpses in any episodes other than Ep1, after all.

Originally Posted by ijriims

In fact, when Battler accounted for 2nd twilight that someone from the 1st twilight killed Eva and Hideyoshi then hid somewhere in the room, Beatrice did not show any disagreement at all.

I've said before, but Shannon.

Originally Posted by Arkwright

The only key happened to be given into the care of Natsuhi, the final murder victim. So unless she used the key or lent it to someone else, they were still stuck there.

Was it ever stated that duplicates of that key do not exist? I don't believe it was... >_>

The best explanation for Ep1 I've still heard of is Kanon and Shannon being the killers, with Nanjo and Genji (and probably Kumasawa) as accomplices. Kyrie is impossible, as she'd have to be wearing extreme amounts of convincing makeup to get past that red.

This and Ep2's first twilight are why no one takes the Kyrie theory seriously; she dies much too early in the first two games.

Originally Posted by ijriims

I merely need Kyrie to be the mastermind and real Beatrice, not necessarily murderers. As long as someone else could accomplish her plan (Genji), Ep2 can be explained. I think the fact that she died in Ep2 was because Rosa accidentally murdered all the adults inside the chapel. She knew the truth from Genji and Shannon afterwards (Shannon was told to impose as suit-Beatrice in that episode.)

"Accidentially murdered all the adults" is about the stupidest thing I've ever heard, I'm sorry. >_>

How would Rosa, given her psychology, accidentally murder six people? And no, child sedatives isn't a good enough explanation.

[ijriims]

Looking just at the red texts, your account should be more appropriate, but when you read the whole dialogues between Beatrice and Battler on episode 1, my interpretation will work too. (For twilight 6-8th), regarding unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist (for twilight 6-8th)!

Child sedative is not enough, but child sedative with alcohol will be enough. THey were having quite a dinner at the chapel, right? I supposed Beatrice prepared some alcohol for these Adults. (and they need alcohol to sober themselves about the revelation of the three gold bars.)

[Arkwright]

The idea that "no body double tricks exist" applies only to the murders of Kumasawa, Genji, and Nanjo, is hard to believe, not just because I'm assuming it applies to the entire episode, but because of the reason why the red was stated.

Battler: We can explain the one who performed the murder with culprit X, who hid away using an unidentified corpse. In the first place, their three faces were also smashed. It's completely possible that one of them was a body-double corpse!

While he does also introduce the possibility that one of the 3 faked their deaths, the blue also includes the possibility that a "culprit X" from an earlier murder had been using an unidentified corpse.

So the red truth here must prevent any "culprit X" that could have avoided the murders via a body double, not just prevent body doubles of Kumasawa, Genji, and Nanjo, otherwise the blue truth succeeds because he didn't restrict it to body doubles of those 3.

As a result, it seems to me that this red truth applies to anyone who could have killed the trio, not just the trio themselves.

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Was it ever stated that duplicates of that key do not exist? I don't believe it was... >_>

It doesn't describe it too much, but the lock was "brand-new" inside a sealed package, so presumably no one could have interacted with the key beforehand, and the key was immediately given to Natsuhi.

[ijriims]

They could just cut open the lock.

-------------------------------------------

Let's say someone from 1st twilight used not an unidentified corpse but a mannequin, but Battler's blue texts only covered corpses as a means. So how could Beato say in her red texts, just telling him it was not a corpse but mannequin was possible as well? No, at best she could just rebuke Battler's blue texts that an unidentified corpse was used, and thus it was not body-double trick (meaning a body for another body here).

She wants Battler to think further that it could be something otherthan a real corpse.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Arkwright

It doesn't describe it too much, but the lock was "brand-new" inside a sealed package, so presumably no one could have interacted with the key beforehand, and the key was immediately given to Natsuhi.

Actually, don't those padlocks normally come with two keys? In case you lose one?

Originally Posted by ijriims

They could just cut open the lock.

This too. Battler is about the worst detective ever, since he never checked the shed once after the first twilight.

Could we get Hercule Poirot flown in, please?

Originally Posted by ijriims

Child sedative is not enough, but child sedative with alcohol will be enough. THey were having quite a dinner at the chapel, right? I supposed Beatrice prepared some alcohol for these Adults. (and they need alcohol to sober themselves about the revelation of the three gold bars.)

This actually works, to be honest, but child sedatives wouldn't even affect them, period. Rosa would have to be an idiot for giving them child sedatives, let alone mixed in alcohol.

And Rosa certainly isn't stupid. She solved the epitaph.

Originally Posted by ijriims

She wants Battler to think further that it could be something otherthan a real corpse.

Using a doll as a fake body would also count as a body double trick, I'd imagine, at least in detective fiction. Furthermore, that would have to be one detailed mannequin, especially for 1986.

I'm going to to with "the simplest explanation is usually the best" here and say that Kyrie is dead.

[ijriims]

I would presume that Rosa did not want to kill the adult but only put them into a sleep, so she could confront suit-Beato face-to-face, after she heard from Maria that "this" Beatrice was getting with Maria every family meeting without her knowing it.

As child-sedative usually assume to be used on children only, I don't think they will have a warning on it saying that "Never to be used with alcohol at the same time". So Rosa did not know sedative with alcohol could prove fatal, and probably if she planned to use child sedative on adult, she must place a lot.

I presumed she used it not inside the chapel but inside the mansion actually , when they were urging Genji to bring suit-Beatrice here. Because those were child-sedative, the effect did not occur instantly so they still get into the chapel. It was only after in the chapel, Beatrice pull out some alcohol and they drank it then they fell asleep (and later died). Rosa just thought that the pills took effect and did not realize she had killed them after she confronted suit-Beatrice in the chapel.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Looking just at the red texts, your account should be more appropriate, but when you read the whole dialogues between Beatrice and Battler on episode 1, my interpretation will work too. (For twilight 6-8th), regarding unidentified corpses, all of their identities are guaranteed. Therefore, no body double tricks exist (for twilight 6-8th)!

Child sedative is not enough, but child sedative with alcohol will be enough. THey were having quite a dinner at the chapel, right? I supposed Beatrice prepared some alcohol for these Adults. (and they need alcohol to sober themselves about the revelation of the three gold bars.)

I think you should be aware that with this kind of argument you can defy any kind of red text.

For example

Kumasawa, nanjo and Genji are not murderers (in respect of the JFK case)

or

No more than 17 humans exist on this island!! (and by "this island" I mean a desert island near Rokkenjima)

or

(Ryuichi) Nanjo is dead not Terumasa Nanjo

and so on...

[ijriims]

Basing on the context of course.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ijriims

As child-sedative usually assume to be used on children only, I don't think they will have a warning on it saying that "Never to be used with alcohol at the same time".

This is common fucking sense. NEVER mix drugs.

Rosa is rather an alcoholic, she'd know better.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

(Ryuichi) Nanjo is dead not Terumasa Nanjo

Actually, this one kind of works, to be honest.

Originally Posted by ijriims

Basing on the context of course.

Which means you need to look at the surrounding lines... which was proven earlier to be in regards to all unidentified bodies.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

I'm going to to with "the simplest explanation is usually the best" here and say that Kyrie is dead.

I think the criterion of parsimony should be applied AFTER the models could be used to account ALL questions.

For Shannon=Beatrice theory, it has little difficulty in accounting EP1, but some in EP2 and quite a bit in EP3. THe motive was not clear as well (sometimes she colluded with George, I presumed she was loving George or how could she become a murder. But at the end, one said she actually loved Battler but this was not relevant to previous episodes at all...)

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

This is common fucking sense. NEVER mix drugs.

Rosa is rather an alcoholic, she'd know better.

This was a common sense for foreigners who went to bar often, but Rosa? She did not take sleeping pills at all (unlike Natsuhi). I don't expect a Japanese to know such a "common sense ".

-----------------------

What is the meaning of "body-double trick"? The contexts suggested that Battler was thinking about using a real unidentified body to fake one's death.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Basing on the context of course.

But the problem is that the wording used implies a general assessment. If the intended purpose was to deny their involvement in that particular case, then a better statement would be "nanjo, genji and kumasawa aren't the culprits".

But Lambda says murderers "殺人者".

While "culprit" is always related to something, so you can be culprit about something but innocent about the rest, this doesn't work with "murderer". You are either a murderer or not a murderer, if you have killed one person you are a murderer and that will never change.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by ijriims

I think the criterion of parsimony should be applied AFTER the models could be used to account ALL questions.

No, I mean that if you have to result to "mannequins" to explain things, I can just point to Battler never seeing Shannon's corpse clearly and I've explained things in a much easier way.

Originally Posted by ijriims

For Shannon=Beatrice theory, it has little difficulty in accounting EP1, but some in EP2 and quite a bit in EP3. THe motive was not clear as well (sometimes she colluded with George, I presumed she was loving George or how could she become a murder. But at the end, one said she actually loved Battler but this was not relevant to previous episodes at all...)

But there's actually some evidence for that theory, as well as Jessitrice.

Kyrie being Beatrice has no evidence whatsoever other than conjecture you pulled out of your ass, apologies for the language. Sure, she's smart and collected enough to plan out murders, but Beatrice has been shown to be impulsive, irrational, and rather silly, much like, hmm, Jessica?

What we've seen of Beatrice and what we've seen of Kyrie don't match up at all.

Kyrie might be a culprit in Ep3 or 4 (very likely in 4), but by any normal interpretation of the red she's dead from the First Twilight onward in Eps 1 and 2.

Originally Posted by ijriims

This was a common sense for foreigners who went to bar often, but Rosa? She did not take sleeping pills at all (unlike Natsuhi). I don't expect a Japanese to know such a "common sense ".

WHAT? Anyone, anywhere, who is as smart and drinks as much as Rosa does, should know to not mix pills or bad shit will happen. It's not localized to the West alone.

MIXING DRUGS IS BAD. PEOPLE DIE.

Originally Posted by ijriims

What is the meaning of "body-double trick"? The contexts suggested that Battler was thinking about using a real unidentified body to fake one's death.

Now you're just reaching, seriously.

A body-double trick, although never defined in-game, implies faking one's death through the use of a false body. It does not matter whether this false body is an actual corpse or not.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

While "culprit" is always related to something, so you can be culprit about something but innocent about the rest, this doesn't work with "murderer". You are either a murderer or not a murderer, if you have killed one person you are a murderer and that will never change.

This may only be true for Ep1... I find it, ah, difficult to explain Ep3 without Nanjo killing someone. You have to resort to a) Eva actually killing someone besides Battler, which I don't like given Ange's perspective at the end of Ep4, or b) a contrived series of coincidences.