[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[stray]

Originally Posted by Marion

Whole thing is that the homonculus thing is pretty anti-mystery :P

Anti-mystery FTMFW.

So anyway before this topic drives me completely up the wall...

Assuming Battler was born from Asumu, and she is somehow his mother and yet he is not her son... Well, forgetting the 2nd part contradiction, he wasn't able to say "It was from Asumu that I was born."

So anyway if he was born from Asumu and he couldn't say it... that could mean that saying something in red does not satisfy a burden of proof... and therefore can't be said in red. Beato could never say "magic exists" or "witches are real."

Hrmm... it's a thought.

[metronome]

dunno, what homunculus exactly is?
to me actually kinzo is more doing cloning research rather than homunculus research.
if it is cloning research, it is still considered anti fantasy.

if I would go deeper into even wilder theory, may be everyone that's married to ushiromiya's male can't have child, including rudolf, and then kinzo use this chance to actually put a "tube baby"(may be kinzo's sperm combined with the egg cell from beatrice, I am not sure if this technique is called tube baby but I know this exist)to the woman they are married too(the woman gonna act like the baby's surrogate mother) including kinzo's own wife and even his daughter.... may be. but then well, still, this theory is defeated by the statement where both of the women rudolf courting were actually pregnant before married, hmm, may be only rudolf is fertile?:P

edit:
ok found out the technique name: in vitro fertilisation, it is already out there from 1977..., heh.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by metronome

dunno, what homunculus exactly is?
to me actually kinzo is more doing cloning research rather than homunculus research.
if it is cloning research, it is still considered anti fantasy.

if I would go deeper into even wilder theory, may be everyone that's married to ushiromiya's male can't have child, including rudolf, and then kinzo use this chance to actually put a "capsule baby"(may be kinzo's sperm combined with the egg cell from beatrice, I am not sure if this technique is called capsule baby but I know this exist)to the woman they are married too(the woman gonna act like the baby's surrogate mother) including kinzo's own wife and even his daughter.... may be.

Homunculus is considered a human body or something like that, which didn't form in the womb of a woman. Beatrice claimed that the 1967 Beato was a homunculus Kinzo made as a vessel to keep her trapped.

....wtf XD

George is screwed if he wants a family then lol

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Alipes

Hey there, up until now I've been lurking and reading the interesting bits of speculation, but I had some interesting ideas to post in regards to the final mystery from Episode 4. Sorry if this is a little long!

Spoiler for More detailed theory:

So, based on these facts and bits of speculation, here's the theory I have about the final mystery:

I find it incredibly peculiar that Kinzo would do something as generous as build an orphanage out of the kindness of his heart, so I find them suspect and think perhaps there's something more going on there than simply an orphanage.

I think perhaps part of the orphanage's real duty is to do shadier work for Kinzo to achieve his goals and expand on his vast wealth. I also think perhaps Kinzo knew that someone would try to kill him from his own family (he never does seem to have much faith or confidence in them), and so had a plan to "get back" at them if something premature happened.

My theory is that instructions were left with the servants/orphanage that if he died prematurely, explosives would be planted around the main mansion, the only one that was known of by the family, so that all people present still at midnight on October 5, 1986 would be killed in the blast.

We already know that the servants are fairly suspect, due to the fact that Kinzo is dead at the start of each game, and it seems that at least Genji/Kanon/Shannon should all know the truth based on what we've seen. So they play along with whoever actually killed Kinzo, acting as meek servants, and then pass along to the orphanage that Kinzo is dead, so that they can carry out his final request.

I think between many servants "cleaning" the mansion that something on a grander scale such as setting up an explosion could take place, so that even though said servants are not present at the island to be players on the game board, they have still had a human influence.

I also think this is the real reason why there are fewer servants on the island on the day of the conference, as the servants present are basically sacrifices to Kinzo's revenge. But, obviously you need some servants present still. Natsuhi seems like she'd be easy to lead along to an idea like that, just make a suggestion so she gets the idea that only a very few trusted servants should be present, to protect her family and Kinzo's best interests.

This would also explain why Eva is never charged with any crime, as there really wouldn't be evidence left to suggest that anyone was murdered viciously. Eva could have either discovered the explosives planted while she had the house all to herself, or could have been in Kuwadorian purely on accident (maybe that's where the gold is, I'm not sure).

This still leaves the big question of who is committing the murders on the island in the first place, and I think it's entirely possible that there are two (or more) different agendas in place here.

In regards to the witch's world/meta world, I think there's some hints that could support this. The servants, except for Kanon (who may still get one) all have a demon/witch/magical counterpart, which I think hints at some additional use for the servants besides just servants. In conversations, Shannon and Kanon always seem resigned to the fate that they will die as part of the "ritual", perhaps hinting at the fact that they have accepted the fact that they will die for Kinzo's revenge on his family. The servants also always claim that Beatrice or something magical is the culprit, which I think is used to stir up the family and freak them out, so they don't accidentally discover what blows the mansion up at midnight. I think also the epitaph may be Kinzo's last laugh in regards to his instructions -- he suspects an early death, so a year or so earlier than our events, he constructs an epitaph that allows his family (who would be worthy if they solved his riddle) to survive the destruction of the main mansion.

So this theory would really cover more than just the final mystery from Ep4, but would explain what happens at the end of each episode. I think perhaps that one of the rules of success that governs this world is that they must discover the explosives or whatever destroys the mansion before midnight, or it's still a failure.

In summary: orphanage is more than just an orphanage, house go boom

Well, a lot of it is just wild guessing, but I find it interesting and would be curious to hear what you think.

Alright then, I'll bite.

Spoiler for Kinzo's Contingency Plan:

For this plan to make sense, two things would have to be true:

1) Kinzo's contingency on the event of his death would have to be the result of more than merely dying of natural causes, as having a revenge plan makes no sense if he dies naturally. So the cause of his death would have to be known!

2) This plan must be flexible enough to be put in place before any given family conference in the year in which (or any time after) Kinzo dies "prematurely."

So let's attack the first point. Given Kinzo's age and health, the most reasonable explanation for his death is natural causes! It may be a Devil's Proof that he can't be shown to have died from foul play, but neither can it be denied that his death was entirely natural! We can't infer the motives of actors from a hypothetical event, so we only have a flimsy rationalization for a contingency plan involving explosives we haven't seen!

Now, point two. Kinzo could very well have been dead for over one year! Why wait to bomb the conference? If it took a lot of time and effort, it would have been very difficult for Krauss not to notice the servants up to something. I'll go one further! Krauss would absolutely have noticed the gradual wiring of the mansion house with explosives if it took almost two years to rig. It's a big house, but that sort of thing can't go unnoticed forever. And what if it was discovered by accident?

It's not a bad theory. But I haven't even begun my counterattack. Let's assume your speculation about the servants is in fact true after all. What happens if we accept that?

Spoiler for What Had To Go Wrong:

Let's accept that Kinzo was killed by nefarious means - or that his servants believed this was true - and the mansion was in fact set up to be destroyed on midnight of October the 5th/6th. The consequences of this are disastrous.

First of all, if the servants expected the conference to last only one day, as it usually did, they would have set the explosives for midnight of the 4th/5th. Without the typhoon, there was no reason to push the time back! But even WITH the typhoon, there was no reason to do it! Everyone would have been just as dead if the mansion blew up on the 4th as on the 5th, and there was a small chance of the boat arriving despite the storm on the morning of the 5th. The house would have exploded with most of the family already gone!

Second, the First Twilight of episode 3 makes no sense. A legitimate reason to kill the servants, if we assume the theory to be true, was to stop them from doing what they were about to do, or to kill the conspirators and encourage the family to flee. But Nanjo (or whomever did the First Twilight) had all the time in the world the next day, with all the servants dead, to warn them about the explosives or the plot and get them to safety at Kuwadorian, a place he knew existed! The killer wanted the servants killed, but wound up making the killings just as mysterious as many of the others. But why else would you want to kill the conspirators if not to save everyone? Why go about it in that fashion? Surely it was no mere accident that an entirely unrelated ritualistic killer happened to select all the people who would have been in on the plot...

Finally, the plan would reasonably be expected to fail! Battler had not been to a family conference in many years, and Ange fell suddenly ill! Someone would have still been alive after the explosion to inherit the family's fortune. The plotters, working on such a tight schedule, would have no way of knowing well ahead of time that Battler was coming, and especially not that Ange wasn't coming. If Kinzo's goal was to kill the whole family, he would have failed because one or the other would not have been on Rokkenjima.

You might counter this by speculating that Kinzo actually intended to REWARD Battler for throwing the family name away, since he had come to loathe the family as well. But Kinzo surely wouldn't have wanted Battler killed if so. He probably would have left instructions to the suicide servants to make sure of Battler's survival. It's possible he didn't want to have him killed UNLESS he tried to return to the family, but in that case the servants should have known that Ange was not present and delayed their plan, hoping Battler would stay in attendance the next year and Ange would also arrive so they could finish the family off.

And finally, the most obvious problem!

Spoiler for 'Suicide' Servants?:

Why have the servants sacrifice themselves? They knew Kuwadorian existed (or they could have been told). They would have been safe there, and could have even fled the island in secrecy. Most of them are orphans, so no one would have even noticed that Shannon and Kanon were missing. Plus, with so many servants not attending the conference, it would be easy to claim they were not on duty that day!

[Alipes]

Originally Posted by Renall

Alright then, I'll bite.

Spoiler for Kinzo's Contingency Plan:

For this plan to make sense, two things would have to be true:

1) Kinzo's contingency on the event of his death would have to be the result of more than merely dying of natural causes, as having a revenge plan makes no sense if he dies naturally. So the cause of his death would have to be known!

2) This plan must be flexible enough to be put in place before any given family conference in the year in which (or any time after) Kinzo dies "prematurely."

So let's attack the first point. Given Kinzo's age and health, the most reasonable explanation for his death is natural causes! It may be a Devil's Proof that he can't be shown to have died from foul play, but neither can it be denied that his death was entirely natural! We can't infer the motives of actors from a hypothetical event, so we only have a flimsy rationalization for a contingency plan involving explosives we haven't seen!

Now, point two. Kinzo could very well have been dead for over one year! Why wait to bomb the conference? If it took a lot of time and effort, it would have been very difficult for Krauss not to notice the servants up to something. I'll go one further! Krauss would absolutely have noticed the gradual wiring of the mansion house with explosives if it took almost two years to rig. It's a big house, but that sort of thing can't go unnoticed forever. And what if it was discovered by accident?

It's not a bad theory. But I haven't even begun my counterattack. Let's assume your speculation about the servants is in fact true after all. What happens if we accept that?

Spoiler for What Had To Go Wrong:

Let's accept that Kinzo was killed by nefarious means - or that his servants believed this was true - and the mansion was in fact set up to be destroyed on midnight of October the 5th/6th. The consequences of this are disastrous.

First of all, if the servants expected the conference to last only one day, as it usually did, they would have set the explosives for midnight of the 4th/5th. Without the typhoon, there was no reason to push the time back! But even WITH the typhoon, there was no reason to do it! Everyone would have been just as dead if the mansion blew up on the 4th as on the 5th, and there was a small chance of the boat arriving despite the storm on the morning of the 5th. The house would have exploded with most of the family already gone!

Second, the First Twilight of episode 3 makes no sense. A legitimate reason to kill the servants, if we assume the theory to be true, was to stop them from doing what they were about to do, or to kill the conspirators and encourage the family to flee. But Nanjo (or whomever did the First Twilight) had all the time in the world the next day, with all the servants dead, to warn them about the explosives or the plot and get them to safety at Kuwadorian, a place he knew existed! The killer wanted the servants killed, but wound up making the killings just as mysterious as many of the others. But why else would you want to kill the conspirators if not to save everyone? Why go about it in that fashion? Surely it was no mere accident that an entirely unrelated ritualistic killer happened to select all the people who would have been in on the plot...

Finally, the plan would reasonably be expected to fail! Battler had not been to a family conference in many years, and Ange fell suddenly ill! Someone would have still been alive after the explosion to inherit the family's fortune. The plotters, working on such a tight schedule, would have no way of knowing well ahead of time that Battler was coming, and especially not that Ange wasn't coming. If Kinzo's goal was to kill the whole family, he would have failed because one or the other would not have been on Rokkenjima.

You might counter this by speculating that Kinzo actually intended to REWARD Battler for throwing the family name away, since he had come to loathe the family as well. But Kinzo surely wouldn't have wanted Battler killed if so. He probably would have left instructions to the suicide servants to make sure of Battler's survival. It's possible he didn't want to have him killed UNLESS he tried to return to the family, but in that case the servants should have known that Ange was not present and delayed their plan, hoping Battler would stay in attendance the next year and Ange would also arrive so they could finish the family off.

And finally, the most obvious problem!

Spoiler for 'Suicide' Servants?:

Why have the servants sacrifice themselves? They knew Kuwadorian existed (or they could have been told). They would have been safe there, and could have even fled the island in secrecy. Most of them are orphans, so no one would have even noticed that Shannon and Kanon were missing. Plus, with so many servants not attending the conference, it would be easy to claim they were not on duty that day!

Thanks for your response Renall! Very well thought-out post, but here are my thoughts in regards to your points:

Spoiler for In Regards to Contigency Plan:

Yes, obviously this plan would rely on the fact that the cause of Kinzo's death is known. However, my opinion is that not only was Kinzo's death not a natural death, but the "trusted" servants (in this case, Genji/Kanon/Shannon) are well aware of the cause!

The most reasonable cause of death for Kinzo WOULD be natural, but in that case, why burn the body? As it stands, if Kinzo dies naturally, Krauss would benefit greatly by becoming the heir, but a burned body implies to me that they were trying to hide or preserve the body, or disguise an unnatural cause of death. Especially considering Kyrie's conditions as presented during Episode 4 for the successor of the Ushiromiya fortune, Krauss would have everything to lose and nothing to gain by burning Kinzo had he died naturally.

Considering the position of the trusted servants in regards to Kinzo, I also don't think it's possible for them to be out of the loop on this. They must obviously know that Kinzo was dead, and it's entirely possible they helped burn the body even. So the ability for them to know cause of death in this cause is not impossible.

As to your second point, Kinzo was alive at the previous family conference, and had died before this one took place. Further, the preparations for the family conference, in regards to cleaning the mansion, were used as a cover to set the explosives with a minimum of suspicion. I don't think the explosives would have taken two years to rig, if many servants "cleaning" were present in a flurry of activity, and could have been done in a shorter period of time. Also, I get the impression that if anyone would have noticed, it would have been Natsuhi and not Krauss, as he seems to be more aloof and she more involved in their activites. But I think during the preparations, it could have still gone unnoticed under many circumstances. Natsuhi's headaches, or Genji could have been given the task of keeping the servants in line for cleaning, or any number of ideas could explain this I think.

Spoiler for In Regards to What Goes Wrong:

Honestly, the biggest hitch to this theory is in regards to the length of the family conference. I didn't remember that it only lasted one day, but it's entirely possible that the mansion was rigged to explode after the conference had ended, and only catch the skeleton crew of servants, Krauss, Natsuhi, and Jessica in the blast. Perhaps the regular schedule of servants was set to continue on the 6th, and only Kinzo's murderer, if he/she was known of, were set to be killed. This is the toughest question to answer, and the biggest sticking point to this theory in my opinion.

Second, my opinion is that only the trusted servants, aka Genji and the servants raised from the orphanage, were aware of the explosives. Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Gohda may have their own ulterior motives, and so could not be trusted with the information, or trusted to sacrifice their lives for the sake of revenge. It seems pretty obvious at least that Nanjo is suspect in many cases, and may be working with the person carrying out the killings on the island. And in this case, I still maintain that the explosives and the murders on the island aren't necessarily carried out by the same people. It truly seems that there is more than one agenda at work on the island at any time anyway, in regards to the killings.

The idea that Kinzo only meant to catch his killers (in this case, Krauss/family would be suspect) in the blast also supports the idea of your final point. It's possible only Kinzo's killers were meant to be caught in the blast, so as to preserve an heir. This idea also means that in regards to whether the explosion happens, Battler's presence or lack thereof has no effect.

And finally!

Spoiler for In Regards to the Suicide of the Servants:

I don't doubt that the servants probably knew of the existence of Kuwadorian and could have saved themselves. However, in order for the orphanage to avoid suspicion as the culprit, some "trusted" servants would need to die in the resulting blast. Trusted in this case refers to the ones allowed to wear the One-Winged Eagle, which would be Genji and those servants from the orphanage.

Why is this? Because if no servants from the orphanage die when the mansion explodes, this immediately casts suspicion on the orphanage as the culprit. Certainly, having none of their own die makes it seem that they knew of the explosion in advance, so several servants were necessary sacrifices to ensure that the orphanage was not blamed. It would be easy for Shannon and Kanon to save themselves, but mysteriously being in Kuwadorian also places great suspicion here.

Anyway, thanks for your great analysis Renall, I look forward to hearing your further thoughts on this.

[Hareoic]

Spoiler for Why Battler probably isn't a girl:

You'd think "she" would be aware of it at some point and stop trying to say "I am Ushiromiya Asumu's son" and try "I am Ushiromiya Asumu's daughter" instead.

Of course, the hole in this are that meta-Battler might be a completely different Battler who is somehow not aware of this fact. Then again, considering that he's a bit of a pervert who has jumped at a few sexual innuendos, both in and out of the meta-world, it seems unlikely that he'd confuse male and female anatomy.

Pugatorio = Meta-World, right?

Originally Posted by Marion

Homunculus is considered a human body or something like that, which didn't form in the womb of a woman. Beatrice claimed that the 1967 Beato was a homunculus Kinzo made as a vessel to keep her trapped.

....wtf XD

George is screwed if he wants a family then lol

Maybe she's a test-tube baby? Though I doubt that kind of advancement was around back then, so...

[rogerpepitone]

1)

Originally Posted by Professor

However, at that point, not even half a year had passed since the accident, and despite the extraordinary circumstances, it was not established that the others had been missing long enough to be presumed dead.

If the person had last been seen in a house that exploded, and a search of the island failed to find them, then that's probably enough to get them declared legally dead.

2) The ending scroll to episode 1 implies that the bodies were found afterwards.

3) Was just the mansion rigged to explode, or both the mansion and the guesthouse? Just one exploding could be passed off as an accident, but not both. If just the mansion, there's a good chance of missing people.

4) Why not do something like rigging the boat to explode? Or even just "Genji takes a gun, shoots the appropriate people, then turns himself in."

5) If there was a simple surface explanation, why didn't Okonogi give it? "Krauss didn't perform proper maintenance on the boiler, and it exploded, wiping out your family. The end."

Anybody else bothered by the Prof's complete failure to recognize Ange or the name Sumadera?

[Marion]

The professor is just a guy working at a university. He researches the incident and Beatrice. Ange wasn't at the conference, nor was she involved in the murders. He probably read about her once, but didn't care since she isn't involved.

[Knicknevin]

A rather general note on the discussion between Alipes and the rest: Back in Episode 3, when Kinzo 'died' during the first twilight, Beato shot some red out regarding the victims. First of all, All of the six are dead. Well, that wasn't really the issue here anyway.

Now at this point, Battler theorizes that one of the six killed themselves. But instead of demanding that Beatrice state that "None of the six committed suicide", he instead demands she repeat "All of the six were killed by other people"! Beato and Ronove are shocked: Ronove calls Battler's demand a 'painful move'. Beato tries to deflect Battler by saying None of the victims committed suicide. So we can rule out Kinzo killing himself at least. Beato is getting worked up, and Ronove calls a break so she can cool down before she gives away something major.

Think about this for a moment- if Kinzo had been killed by Krauss or somebody for some reason, the first twilight could have wound up a sticking point so tight that Battler is made to surrender right at the start. Beatrice simply has to say All of the six were killed by other people. and Battler is suddenly without a leg to stand on. But she didn't, and even in Episode 4, when speaking about that case, she even went as far as to say The five other than Kinzo were killed by other people. Something along those lines at least.

All of this leads me to believe that Kinzo had died of natural causes, a good amount of time before the game began, and Beato was hiding it in order to keep Battler as in the dark as possible. I admit you can argue that Beatrice is still hiding things and she's still hiding some major information about Kinzo's death. This could have been an elaborate deception.

[Alipes]

@Knicknevin: actually, that's not quite right from what I'm seeing Beatrice said in red in regards to the murders, and I think it's an important distinction.


6 people: Kinzo, Genji, Shannon, Kanon, Gohda, and Kumasawa are dead!
The 6 people died instantly!
The 6 people were not killed by traps!
None of the 6 people committed suicide!
When the five other than Kinzo were murdered, the murderer was definitely in the same room!


This is misleading, as it doesn't necessarily say that Kinzo was not murdered, just that the murderer was present in the room with the other five who were dead. It's possible he died of natural causes, certainly, but this also doesn't rule out the idea that Kinzo could have been poisoned.

[k//eternal]

I wonder, does poison count as a "trap", though?

[Ithekro]

I doubt it. Traps are usually something left behind that someone can trigger at a later time. Poision is directly applied to a food or drink intended for a person. While a trap can be left for a specific person, poison is generally not classied as a trap in most mysteries.

[Knicknevin]

Originally Posted by Alipes

@Knicknevin: actually, that's not quite right from what I'm seeing Beatrice said in red in regards to the murders, and I think it's an important distinction.


6 people: Kinzo, Genji, Shannon, Kanon, Gohda, and Kumasawa are dead!
The 6 people died instantly!
The 6 people were not killed by traps!
None of the 6 people committed suicide!
When the five other than Kinzo were murdered, the murderer was definitely in the same room!


This is misleading, as it doesn't necessarily say that Kinzo was not murdered, just that the murderer was present in the room with the other five who were dead. It's possible he died of natural causes, certainly, but this also doesn't rule out the idea that Kinzo could have been poisoned.

Ah, quite right. Didn't have my notes handy so I was quoting from memory. Still, the sticking point here is that Beato went into damage control mode when Battler demanded Beatrice say 'All of the six were killed by other people'. Though we can attribute all sorts of reasons to that. A cyanide surprise with breakfast would certainly kill Kinzo instantly, and the killer does not have to be in the same room.

I'll grant that Kinzo doesn't like his family much. I've speculated myself that Kinzo was in some way aware of what was going to happen, and left the epitaph behind as a test of worthiness- if someone solves it soon enough they might be able to prevent the massacre in the first place. And whoever solves it becomes the next head, as they have just 'saved' the family from certain destruction, just as Kinzo did in the past.

And I'll grant that the highest ranked servants- Genji, Kanon and Shannon, all seem to have a rather indifferent attitude about their own deaths. Genji is a friggin robot, Kanon seems to be bent on rejecting all human contact, and Shannon is content just with George's intentions.

But this theory is ignoring the feelings of the person most important to it- Kinzo. The general feeling that most of the siblings share is that Kinzo placed Beatrice, whoever or whatever she is, as a higher priority than any of them. And from what we've seen and heard, the family's pride and honor were more important than any member as well. Considering the scene at the very start of Episode 1, Kinzo was very insistent that all of his life's work must be completed while he is still alive- he cared little for what happened after he died, since he wanted to settle things with his own hands pretty much. And the planting of a not-so-small bomb in the mansion just doesn't seem his style. The man spent his life focused on two things- the prosperity of the Ushiromiya family, and later, the revival of 'Beatrice'. Blowing up his house doesn't really fit with either of those criteria. And runs counter to both.

And anyway, if the servants are intent on killing everyone with a massive bomb, why are they (presumably) also taking part in the killings? Since in many games it seems like all but a foregone conclusion that some of them are assisting the killer. Why all the magical trickery? And who is 'Beatrice'? Someone on the island has their own agenda. In cases like this, with a massive inheritance on the line, one of the rules of thumb that I've always been advised to use is "Follow the money". And if you follow the money trail, it always leads you to the same place- the Sumadera family. I really doubt Kinzo had that in mind...

[Sylum]

First time posting, didn't feel like reading 131 pages so hopefully this wasn't posted before, but felt like adding my theory on Battlers mother (since I see a large number of people guessing)

Kyrie is Battlers real mother:

Asumu and Kyrie were to give birth on the same day, Kyrie was also to give birth to a boy, she claims that Asumu had succeeded in giving birth and she had ended up with a stillbirth. However, lets assume that Asumu had infact given birth to the stillborn and Kyrie had given birth to Battler, but Asumu or someone else had payed off the doctor attending Kyrie to tell her that the baby wasn't able to birth successfully and had died, and then had given the baby to Kyrie.

The thing with the second Battler can be explained that Asumu had already named the fetus inside of her Battler, and that was the name it would of been given on birth, so the Battler that was a fetus is dead, and the baby she stole from Kyrie was named Battler. Of course, this all depends on if Rudolf had been there during the birth, but he had probably been busy with some form of work, or something similar.

Another theory that goes along the same lines is that Asumu had hated Kyrie severely but had in fact given birth successfully to her baby Battler, however she had still taken the baby Kyrie had given birth to and tricked her into thinking that it was a stillborn since she feared that if Kyrie had given birth successfully that Rudolf would side with Kyrie. She then had people raise the baby in secret, giving it the same name of Battler, then her baby had died somehow and she took that Battler to be her son.

That's how I view it, so unless there was something spouted earlier that contradicts this, I think this is a theory that makes perfect sense in regard to the red truth.

[vandakiara]

ok I haven't read about this yet so it seems people are forgeting about it - about battler's true mom... when beato asks him to repeat the first thing in red in that conversation, ange asks her to stop 'I know what you're trying to do' is what she says right?

how does she know that? how did she know what beato was going to do? well, I have no answer for this, just thought it'd help you people make some more crazy theories

[metronome]

Originally Posted by Hareoic

Maybe she's a test-tube baby? Though I doubt that kind of advancement was around back then, so...

test tube has been around after 1977. so that means 1986 is like 8-9 years after that, should be really more than possible.

edit: I thought u are talking about george since you quote marion, not sure about 1967, but well, may be that's what kinzo is researching, but for people that dunno about it , they gonna call it homunculus may be.

now something is coming to my mind too(I think other people has stated this, but since I am late comer, ok : there are at most 17 people on the island by the time the game start, but what about the number of corpses. We know that kinzo is always already dead by the start of each game, means it is easy to manipulate his corpse to fit the situation. You need 1 more corpse during the first 6 sacrifice? easy, add kinzo's corpse, you need corpse to cover skipped sacrifice, easy, just put that stake on the burnt body of kinzo. This person that acts as kinzo can really easily move around this way...

[Ithekro]

That might work for Ange....but not Battler. 1968 is a good deal before 1986 and 1977 in medical terms. Maria is out as all getout since it was a new proceedure...there weren't very many done then, and not in Japan. Also the first test tube baby was born in 1978. Ange is
problematic since there were only 14 pregnancies and 9 births of test tube babies between 1978 and 1981. The chances of Ange being one are remote to none. The chances of Battler (any form) being one are zero.

That reduces the options. Stolen baby, twin, adoption, female, and symantics on terminology of born and/or family name at birth (bastard).

[metronome]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

That might work for Ange....but not Battler. 1968 is a good deal before 1986 and 1977 in medical terms. Maria is out as all getout since it was a new proceedure...there weren't very many done then, and not in Japan. Also the first test tube baby was born in 1978. Ange is
problematic since there were only 14 pregnancies and 9 births of test tube babies between 1978 and 1981. The chances of Ange being one are remote to none. The chances of Battler (any form) being one are zero.

That reduces the options. Stolen baby, twin, adoption, female, and symantics on terminology of born and/or family name at birth (bastard).

Hmm, actually I am not talking about the battler part(I am talking more about the part where beatrice said kinzo is making homunculus, and trying to guess what it may be in term of anti fantasy. like that tv tube, before people know what is inside the tube, they say some small goblin create the picture). but well, since it is included into it, let's just have fun talking about this batler guy too.

basically, the first recorded official theory came around 1977, and the first official proof came around 1978. But then I think people has started doing this research from even before, but keeps failing, or may be not enuff data (in term of statistic) even if you succeed a couple of times to be called safe. some people might conduct the research in secret, such as kinzo.

but well, I already said this is one of the wild guess to what I think could be one of the crazy theories.
battler should really ask help from conan, kindaichi, sherlock holmes, hercule poirot, or even jane marple from agatha christie to help him, I dont think they mind.

[Exilon]

Considering everything I've read thus far, and taking into account that Kinzo has a vast wealth, I wouldn't find it surprising that he invested lots of money in that kind of thing.

In fact, my theory for Beatrice (the one in Kuwadorian), is that she was born in that exact same way. Today it might be common knowledge, but at the time, it could be considered "magic" and "producing homonculus".

[WhiteFrost]

What I find problematic in the theory of baby-switching in the case of Battler, is that apperantly Rudolf married Asumu because she was pregnant. If Kyrie was pregnant at almost the exactly same time, if he actually preferred Kyrie over Asumu, wouldn't it be more likely that he'd pick Kyrie to marry?