International Saimoe League 2010

[Demi.]

Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite

Because characters voiced by Tamura Yukari are awesome.



I think they've been releasing Disappearance related official art for years now.

It will up the release levels I mean.

@Khold: Because It's Nanoha...

[Noe]

Yukari Tamura is pretty cool.

[Seishi]

Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite

Because characters voiced by Tamura Yukari are awesome.

Eternally QFT

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by hinakatbklyn

Before J-saimoe's Final 8, regardless of the random drawing, on paper who would be the final match and I said hands down (Koromo and Yui). As it turns out the winner couldn't beat taiga. Anywho, Koromo and other extreme moe characters might have trouble outside of Japan, but Koromo should burn Eruru with room to spare.

Even in Japan, Eruru survived against Suzumiya Haruhi and Nagato Yuki. In Korea, Eruru made it to round of 96 while Amae Koromo failed to do so. In ISML, Japan never casted vote over 100 until the last match in 2009, and not even over 50 until middle of DE 2009. Korea always maintained vote number over 100, and usually over 200 for most of ISML history. Finally, in the non-Asian anime community, I dare say Utawarerumono has slight edge in recognition due to the fact that its licensed DVDs are readily available while Saki has not been licensed. Koromo might still win due to large Loli-zion factions in moe tourney community, but not by more than 2~3 % at best. I still think Eruru will win by 52 to 48 margin given all the facts and history that is available to me.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Haruhi and Yuki didn't exactly look like powerhouses in Japan Saimoe 2009. Eruruu being as strong as those two is not bad, but it doesn't mean that much. Koromo was a lot stronger than Eruruu in Japan Saimoe 2009. But this probably doesn't matter too much since Japan doesn't vote very much in ISML.

I'm not too familiar with KSaimoe, but it looks like Eruruu got killed in her Round of 96 match. Based on how the other Saki character did, I don't think Eruruu would have an easy time beating Koromo. This is a very rough guess, though since I don't actually know how or why Koromo failed to reach the Round of 96.

For the most part, I agree with the rest of your post.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite

Haruhi and Yuki didn't exactly look like powerhouses in Japan Saimoe 2009. Eruruu being as strong as those two is not bad, but it doesn't mean that much. Koromo was a lot stronger than Eruruu in Japan Saimoe 2009. But this probably doesn't matter too much since Japan doesn't vote very much in ISML.

I'm not too familiar with KSaimoe, but it looks like Eruruu got killed in her Round of 96 match. Based on how the other Saki character did, I don't think Eruruu would have an easy time beating Koromo. This is a very rough guess, though since I don't actually know how or why Koromo failed to reach the Round of 96.

For the most part, I agree with the rest of your post.

Another thing to factor is that Utawarerumono OVA keeps coming out, while Saki has the manga ongoing. The trouble is that while Utawarerumono can attract even female audience and has elements that can broaden its fan base, Saki's fan group is mostly set and it is not easy to find attributes with which to diversify the viewer types. In easier words, I believe Saki will fade faster than Utawarerumono, thus while Koromo can beat Eruru, it won't be easy.

In Jsaimoe, however, Koromo will probably make it to top 16 again in 2010.


On unrelated note, I believe melange will be very happy knowing that Saten Ruiko will appear during the nomination phase, which pretty much seals her place in prelim.

[KholdStare]

Hey wontaek, do you know that the http://internationalsaimoe.com/ in your signature links to the KBM site? 0.o

Speaking of which, our site design has been updated thanks to Crisu. We do have only one banner though, so if you want to help make some, please contact us somehow.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by KholdStare

Hey wontaek, do you know that the http://internationalsaimoe.com/ in your signature links to the KBM site? 0.o

Speaking of which, our site design has been updated thanks to Crisu. We do have only one banner though, so if you want to help make some, please contact us somehow.

I found the old relic that did that. It has been fixed.

[Eisdrache]

Originally Posted by wontaek

I still think Eruru will win by 52 to 48 margin given all the facts and history that is available to me.

Predictions with so exact percentages always make me smile. I have yet to see one of those that actually comes close to the actual result.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

Predictions with so exact percentages always make me smile. I have yet to see one of those that actually comes close to the actual result.

It depends how much of the character we've already seen in ISML and how far away the match being predicted is. With characters that I've seen a bit of and a match that's only a few days away, I've been able to make numerous predictions that were within a single percentage point of the actual result. I'm not the only person who has done this either. It's not as big a feat as you make it sound.

[KholdStare]

It's better if you guys practice predicting percentages, because in ISML Fantasy 2010, you get bonus points for predicting percentages of certain matches.

Today's Fantasy. Which characters do you think would win in 2010? Percentages are welcome.

[Team Rocket Elite]

1
1
1

What did Tamao do to get paired up with Shana? >_> Shana will slaughter her. I think Hanyuu vs Misaka Mikoto would be a good fight. Saten is going to be a good step below Misaka. Hanyuu shouldn't have any trouble winning. After the performance Hitagi put up on Mio, I don't think Nagi would have problems with Hitagi. I'm not familiar with the character ranking in Bakemonogatari but I believe Hitagi was at the top. This means Nadeko defintely doesn't stand a chance against Nagi.


Shana (SnS) [80.97%] vs Suzumi Tamao (SP) [19.03%]
Hanyuu (HNKN) [58.14%] vs Saten Ruiko (TAKR) [41.86%]
Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [61.69%] vs Sengoku Nadeko (BKMN) [38.31%]

[KholdStare]

Lies, we all know Tamao once defeated Shana.

[wontaek]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

Predictions with so exact percentages always make me smile. I have yet to see one of those that actually comes close to the actual result.

I forgot to add that all of my prediction comes with error margin of +- 2.9%. That means that for something like 52 to 48, I believe I will be predicting the wrong winner about 20% of the times.

Originally Posted by KholdStare

It's better if you guys practice predicting percentages, because in ISML Fantasy 2010, you get bonus points for predicting percentages of certain matches.

Today's Fantasy. Which characters do you think would win in 2010? Percentages are welcome.

Match 1: I vote for Shana and expect Shana to win close to 90 to 10 margin, if everyone votes on mere preference. The actual results will be around 80 to 20 as there are many people who would want Shana to lose for whatever the reason

Match 2: I would vote for Saten Ruiko, and will enthusiastically campaign for her. Given the proximity of Railgun episodes, I actually will say 51 to 49 Saten, but will also claim slightly bigger margin of error of +- 5%. The reason is that I think more people knows about the Railgun series compared to Higurashi, given the Railgun's success in the anime blog world, but there are many hard core Higurashi fans lurking the Moe Tournament world.

Match 3: I vote for Sengoku Nadeko, hands down, but in ISML world, Sanzennin Nagi will win by margin close to 70 to 30. However, Nadeko has very fervent fan base, with much more zeal compared to Nagi fans, who are more of Hayate series fan or Kugimiya Rie fans. Every new episode that may come out with Nadeko having good number of dialogue lines will swing percentage about 5 % to her favor, meaning that 4 ~ 5 good episodes of her may give her chance for upset win.

[Demi.]

Wontaek voting Shana?

Anyways, fantasy for those three are blaringly obvious.
Shana, Hanyuu, Nagi.

80-20
65-35
58-42

[KholdStare]

If only Hanyuu's win was blaringly obvious.

[Demi.]

65-35 for Hanyuu is a whole lot of confidence.

[Team Rocket Elite]

I'll echo what Demi. said. Saten has virtually no chance to win that match.

[KholdStare]

I guess it's easy to take Higurashi characters for granted. Since she's one of my favorite characters, I keep track of how well she did in 2009, and there is no certainty she can win anything over a popular currently airing character. Hanyuu's performance in 2009 was more facepalm than Sakura's performance, and I'm not talking about final standings.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Hanyuu being from Higurashi didn't factor into my choice at all. I think Hanyuu will win because Hanyuu herself has shown how much power she has. Saten hasn't had any matches yet so I do base her strength on other characters from her series. Misaka was a fairly weak character for most of ISML 2009. She recived a massive boost thanks to Railgun but that only brought her close Hanyuu. Index and Railgun character were just that weak before Railgun came out. Saten is a popular character but she's going to be a tier of strength weaker than Misaka which in turn means she isn't close to Hanyuu. I'm sure Hanyuu has bad matches like everyone else, but it would take something like the Rozen Maiden collpase in ISML 2009 DE for Saten to have a chance. Hanyuu isn't exactly weak. Boosting Misaka to Hanyuu's level is a pretty good feat. However, it takes more than that to start pushing secondary characters into the upper tiers.