Current Events in Iran

[Jinto]

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

and demonizing israel is what the DO
with or without an excuse
and world public opinion buys into it regardless to whether or not its true
might as well get blamed for what you actually DID (and rob them of their nuke producing ability) then get blamed for stuff ANYWAY and allow them to get nukes
judging historiclly, people will condamn you today and thank you tomorrow
and that goes for the entire region (most of the arab states are also pissing themselves at the idea of an atomic iran

Then Israel would have convinced even the last moderate iranian that having nukes is essential in this region. How many times do you think Israel is able to bomb those facilities to ashes while the world is just watching on the sidelines?
They have the raw uranium in their backyard and mastered the enrichment technology. If they really want that bomb they get it.
The last two wars against iran's proxies turned out to be bad PR for Israel. At the end of such a war (or many wars) however there will be no winners only loosers. There must be another way.

Okay now something that is more on topic:

Currently irian protesters are mourning the dead. The number of protesters seems to remain high. I think there is a good chance that the number of demonstrators will raise over the weekend.
edit:
I regard it as a good thing if the whole situation calms down a little bit. This will make demonstrations a whole lot safer. There need not be an overly violent approach to change the ruling system of a country (as former GDR citizen I see great potential in peacefull demonstrations).

[bladeofdarkness]

the numbers of protestors might increase
but the protests themselves are growing less and less violent in nature
the regime is getting things back under control, and they are already talking about starting to forbid farther protests in the coming days
if after all this time you dont see millions floading the streets, i dont think your likely to see this later
this whole thing is dying down

edit:
if things die down without making a real change
then it was all for nothing and those who died did so for nothing

[Zippicus]

Originally Posted by Jinto

How many times do you think Israel is able to bomb those facilities to ashes while the world is just watching on the sidelines?

Until the leadership in Iran can assure the rest of the world that they're not going to nuke Israel because it's their sacred duty, as many times as it takes I'd guess.

[bladeofdarkness]

when israel bombed the reactor in iraq
people said it would be back up in a few years time
it wasnt
reactors cost money and material
the've spent YEARS getting to the point where the would have a bomb in a matter of years
earsing all that work would go a LONG way in canceling it out altogether

[iLney]

Do what you must but don't look for support anywhere. Worry not about the consequences though.

[Sazelyt]

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

the numbers of protestors might increase
but the protests themselves are growing less and less violent in nature
the regime is getting things back under control

It is not because the regime is gaining the control, it is because the civil way is the best way to gather more people to their side and attract the attention of the people in the middle. That is why the government is trying to be more careful than usual, and why the religious leaders are acting more flexible (though I am guessing that may be partly because Ahmedinejad was not the primary choice for the majority of the mullahs). Currently, no one can guess what may happen if the government starts to use extreme force on them.

[Vexx]

Aye, you've got a great percentage of the middle class, professionals, intellectuals, etc as well as many of the moderate clerics irritated enough to be marching. The best way to attract the rest of those classes is by showing you're being civil. The paramil thugs might as well have shot themselves and their masters in the foot rather than the protesters they killed.

Also, the Guard, the military, and the police are split on this --- one of the defeated candidates was a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard. At the moment, there's no guarantee for any side that if they pull the trigger for violence - it won't go down badly within those organizations.

[Claies]

Originally Posted by Vexx

Also, the Guard, the military, and the police are split on this --- one of the defeated candidates was a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard. At the moment, there's no guarantee for any side that if they pull the trigger for violence - it won't go down badly within those organizations.

There are unsubstantiated reports that the police are either neutral or sympathetic to the protesters, telling them that they will not use violence and telling them that they must flee should the Basij militia show up. The government has been shipping in non-Tehran countryside policemen instead. Quite a parallel to Tienanmen there.

Their paramilitary is a scary group. 10+-million strong staunchly religious people who ran into minefields in front of tanks 30 years ago, and stick-waving mob now? I'm hoping America doesn't get a bunch of those in later years.

Also, why is Israel even brought up in this? It's only tangentially related.

Key places to look at:
http://iran.twazzup.com

#iran@irc.anonnet.org

[bladeofdarkness]

looks like we got an ultimatum

Spoiler for Khamenei to Mousavi: Support regime or be cast out:

http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7...733806,00.html
The Times says Iran's supreme leader demanded that defeated presidential candidate stand beside him during Friday's prayers to call for unity; McCain to Obama: Help democratic supporters in Iran

now its just a question if musavi has the courage of his convictions

[Vexx]

Khamenei may have to "cast out" a third to a half of the clerics as well as Mousavi ... not unexpected but wow, this might turn into a spectacular mess. Khamenei appears to have stake his entire credibility with the masses on "nothing to see; move along". o.O

One of the other defeated candidates has also called for a new election:

Originally Posted by BBC article

Defeated candidate Mehdi Karroubi has joined calls for the election to be declared void.
In an open letter to the electoral authorities, he wrote: "By deciding fairly to cancel the election and hold it again, you would be accepting the nation's will and guaranteeing the permanence of the system."
The Guardian Council - Iran's main electoral authority - has invited Mr Mousavi, Mr Karroubi and the other defeated candidate to discuss their objections on Saturday.

[Sazelyt]

I believe Khamenei is the only one supporting Ahmedijenad. So, his actions follow his will.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Vexx

Khamenei may have to "cast out" a third to a half of the clerics as well as Mousavi ... not unexpected but wow, this might turn into a spectacular mess. Khamenei appears to have stake his entire credibility with the masses on "nothing to see; move along". o.O

One of the other defeated candidates has also called for a new election:

Khamieni has got the backing of the Basij Force and most of the military, so if politics don't work, violence will.

But one serious issue to note if that happens, the destabilisation of Iran can very quickly lead to the destruction of the Mideast. On the contrary, since Iran doesn't have many allies in their region, it could also be viewed by the local Muslims as "not our problem".

[bladeofdarkness]

how would the destabilisation of Iran lead to the destruction of the mid east ?
it may lead to the collapse of iran's goverment and effect the country itself
but what possible effect would it have on the rest of the middle east ?
apart from leading to excessive partying from all moderates nations and the weakening of all extreimists forces (syria, hizballa, hamas) in the area that is ?

edit:
claims of a suicide bombing at the shrine of the ayatolla Khomeini
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/8110582.stm

Spoiler for the part of the bomber:

There were also reports of a bombing at the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini.
Two Iranian news agencies reported that the suicide bomber died and two people were injured in the bombing near the shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini, leader of the 1979 revolution.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Vexx

Aye, you've got a great percentage of the middle class, professionals, intellectuals, etc as well as many of the moderate clerics irritated enough to be marching. The best way to attract the rest of those classes is by showing you're being civil. The paramil thugs might as well have shot themselves and their masters in the foot rather than the protesters they killed.

Also, the Guard, the military, and the police are split on this --- one of the defeated candidates was a former commander of the Revolutionary Guard. At the moment, there's no guarantee for any side that if they pull the trigger for violence - it won't go down badly within those organizations.

one of the biggest headache for the government is that the leaders of the opposition were a big part of the original revolution. These were senior clerics help drive out the shah and the US. Unlike Tianenment sq this riot/revolution/protest the younger generation are the followers not the leaders.

Originally Posted by Claies

There are unsubstantiated reports that the police are either neutral or sympathetic to the protesters, telling them that they will not use violence and telling them that they must flee should the Basij militia show up. The government has been shipping in non-Tehran countryside policemen instead. Quite a parallel to Tienanmen there.

Their paramilitary is a scary group. 10+-million strong staunchly religious people who ran into minefields in front of tanks 30 years ago, and stick-waving mob now? I'm hoping America doesn't get a bunch of those in later years.

Also, why is Israel even brought up in this? It's only tangentially related.

Key places to look at:
http://iran.twazzup.com

#iran@irc.anonnet.org

where did you get the 10+ mil for the basij militia? NK has the biggest army in the world and that i htink is only 1 mil. I would put the militia's number in the thousands not millions.

[Jinto]

In general the deomnstrators don't appear to be non-violent on various videos. They build burning barricades and generally make it too easy for the Bajitis to find a pretext to fire into the crowds.

In some of the videos on youtube they show those Bajitis throwing rocks, which the demonstrants throw back at them. How stupid is that? Thats like giving them back their amunition. And they can use it as pretext to shoot at the now violent demonstrants.

[Speculation]
I could imagine however, that those radical demonstrators are Bajitis themselves, that want to give their armed comrades a pretext to fire at demonstrators.
[/Speculation]

[bladeofdarkness]

reports have it that there are already 8 deaths today
including some from gunfire

[Mushi]

We are witnessing an unprecedented moment in history due to the significance of the impact the internet is having on this event. This is the power of digital information in the hands of common people.

Originally Posted by bladeofdarkness

...the weakening of all extreimists forces (syria, hizballa, hamas) in the area that is ?

You do realize the absurdity of minimizing that effect, don't you?

reports have it that there are already 8 deaths today
including some from gunfire

I'm going to give this link with some reservation... it's graphic and violent. This young woman was merely standing next to her father and she was singled out by basij. Please note the commentary by the doctor responding and the apology of the website for posting this. It's done in hope of securing some justice for this innocent life.

I'm only passing this along because I agree with what they say at the end of the commentary... please let the world know.

http://breakfornews.com/KarekarAveShooting090620.htm

There's a link to where the video is. Go there at your own discretion... it's very disturbing.

[bladeofdarkness]

make that at least 19 dead possibly more
http://www.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/meast/...ion/index.html

and i second that warning
and that video WAS disturbing
take note anyone who still hasnt watched it

[yezhanquan]

Seems that we're one step closer to a Tiananmen. Those who want to uphold the status quo are the ones with the guns. I don't like where this is going.

[bladeofdarkness]

and i for one would like to say how much i respect president barak obama for his swiftness and deceisiveness in expressing his total and complete support for the iranian people in their struggle to protect their freedom of expression and right to protest, against the opressive tyranical regime that they live under and in the face of the brutal opression they now face at the hands (and boots) of the regime
and for his call to the western world to unite in supporting these breave souls in their struggle, and to make sure that they know that they arent alone
to let them know that freedom loving people from all around the world, are with them ...

is what i would be saying if he did any of that
i guess "yes we can" doesnt extend to people who cant vote for him