Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 (Japan)

[bhl88]

Will they tie or not tie?

[BaKaBaKaOtaKu]

Originally Posted by Hachiko

Sayaka has now hit 100 votes. 109-101 Madoka.

And the anti-votes are becoming more apparent now.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

This is just your theory though. And I'm saying it's a pretty flimsy theory since you have nothing concrete to go on here.

Yes, it is a theory but it's likely too. I'll take Sayaka-Mami fight as an example here, as well as Kuroneko-Madoka.

Character boosting based on the most recent anime installment featuring that character is not at all unusual, and there's several pretty obvious cases of it (ex. Ayase in ISML this year was clearly boosted by the final season of Ore no Imouto; ex 2. Tomoka was likely boosted by the final episode of her anime, helping her win a Block in J-SaiMoe 2013).

I never said it's not possible to be boosted by something, but in the PMMM faction's case, I'd say nothing has change which characters the faction prefer more than the other.

So there's much more precedent and basis for that idea than your relatively wild and speculative "Anti-PMMM faction still cares even if its major PMMM girl vs. major PMMM girl" theory.

Nope, it's not a wild speculation since we're very well aware that the non-Madoka voters are still alive and that was proven by the Kuroneko-Madoka match.

And to add to that there's a difference between Madoka and Sayaka. Madoka isn't just a major character, she's the most supported character remaining in the competition outside of the faction. Where as Sayaka is a just Sayaka, and it's pretty much a common knowledge that she's the least liked girl. So, anti-faction's still at play and they could very well support Sayaka to spite.

We don't really know what the maximum of the faction is. The PMMM faction may have 500 voters left, but many sat out Madoka vs. Kyouko because they didn't have a significant preference between the two girls.

I think Madoka's votes against Kuroneko was the maximum of the faction. I don't see any reason why the faction would hold back during that time when their favorite was losing. 500 voters? No, they should have appeared early on if that's the case, but where were they when Madoka was facing a very strong opponent? I'd say 500 voters left for PMMM faction is farfetched at this point. The admins had banned A LOT almost sparing no one if you ask me.

Why would they sit out during that match? Madoka could very well lose by the anti-voters by supporting Kyoko instead. No significant preference? There clearly was a significant preference and that's Madoka, dude.

I think that Madoka faction, and anti-Madoka faction, isn't necessarily the only way to view it. You could also think of it as Madoka faction, and "neutral voters". It's possible that neutral voters may have their own personal preference between the two finalists, and aren't voting out of spite at all.

Neutral voters might have been there but they're only very few. I don't think they could change a game, but hardcore anti-voters can.

Madoka getting more votes than Homura in Round 2 should tell you that there may well have been changes in relative character strength within the Madoka faction (Ion may well be right about Madoka now being favored over Homura by SaiMoe voters). Sayaka defeating Mami hot off the heels of the third Madoka Magica movie should also make this a possibility to be seriously considered.

Nope, there's no indication that Homura was more popular than Madoka back then among the Saimoe voters, Homura was kicked out earlier, and there's no three-way person round during that time in 2011 to test which one was going to be dropped for the other one to be saved.

You act like character boosting is some strange thing, but it isn't. Not at all. And it sometimes benefits certain characters more than others. Going back to Ayase, Ore no Imouto's 2nd Season benefited her more than it did Kirino, even though Kirino is the more important character of the two.

Again, I never said character boosting is a strange thing, but it doesn't mean it's going to apply to every faction or character. Kirino was always hated anyway lol. I see no change in the faction favorites anyway.

Now as I've mentioned earlier, if Madoka loses gaining only around 120 or 130, while Sayaka goes ahead of her, that would be the time I'd say Sayaka was prefered over her this time. But then again there are still factors to consider like "what could have been the result if it weren't for the bans?"

[Coldlight]

Originally Posted by BaKaBaKaOtaKu

And the anti-votes are becoming more apparent now.

I beg to differ. I doubt that the so-called anti-voters would be a factor in this match now, because 1.) They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to support a girl from a series they dislike and 2.) Tactical voting is already useless at this point, where there are only PMMM girls left in the running.

Either way it's already a victory for the PMMM faction, so it's a lot more likely these anti-voters have already packed up and left the moment the last non-PM girl lost. Come on, look at these vote totals for the Final Match: do you seriously believe there are still a lot of anti-voters bothering to participate and make a difference here now?

It's a lot more plausible to consider this a close fight between the core supporters of Sayaka and the core supporters of Madoka with the rest of the PMMM voters reserving judgment until the final hour. Anti-voters would be negligible at this point since I doubt they'd vote for girls they don't care about: for them, Saimoe 2013 has already ended (or died as the naysayers love to say).

In my view you're one of those who frequently underestimated Sayaka, after all. No matter how many wins she got or how far she went, there were those who never gave her the respect she's due. Even when she's already fighting in the Final Match and giving the favorite girl a good run for her money.

[Hachiko]

Spoiler for Saimoe 2013 in a nutshell:

114-104, Madoka.

[iamadooddood]

*coughJapaneseACGNcough*

I'm not for banning past champions though; MadoMagi would have been knocked out earlier if not for what the admins did. Under normal circumstances, the final wouldn't have been a Puella Magi against a Puella Magi.

Originally Posted by bhl88

They should kick out the ones that reached at least the semifinals repeatedly

No, those who keep coming close but never win it, shouldn't have to suffer any more than they already do.

I pity Hinagiku.

Originally Posted by BaKaBaKaOtaKu

I agree though. But there's still a lot of time, the anti-voters might come in late. In any case, Madoka winning this match is the natural way to go.

Well, the anti-voters came in too early for the Kuroneko-Madoka match. The Madoka voters had only a few hours to react, but a few hours was enough for them to edge Kuroneko out.

Them antis aren't about to come in this early, now.

Originally Posted by Hachiko

Spoiler for ibm?:

LOL.

Originally Posted by Coldlight

I beg to differ. I doubt that the so-called anti-voters would be a factor in this match now, because 1.) They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to support a girl from a series they dislike and 2.) Tactical voting is already useless at this point, where there are only PMMM girls left in the running.

Either way it's already a victory for the PMMM faction, so it's a lot more likely these anti-voters have already packed up and left the moment the last non-PM girl lost. Come on, look at these vote totals for the Final Match: do you seriously believe there are still a lot of anti-voters bothering to participate and make a difference here now?

It's a lot more plausible to consider this a close fight between the core supporters of Sayaka and the core supporters of Madoka with the rest of the PMMM voters reserving judgment until the final hour. Anti-voters would be negligible at this point since I doubt they'd vote for girls they don't care about: for them, Saimoe 2013 has already ended (or died as the naysayers love to say).

In my view you're one of those who frequently underestimated Sayaka, after all. No matter how many wins she got or how far she went, there were those who never gave her the respect she's due. Even when she's already fighting in the Final Match and giving the favorite girl a good run for her money.

I'm sure the general consensus even among anti-voters is that Madoka is the favourite to win, so it's likely at least some of them will vote for Sayaka to win, because they don't want the fan favourite to win.


119-109 now...

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by BaKaBaKaOtaKu

And the anti-votes are becoming more apparent now.

lol, a slight swing and here comes the anti-voters.

Yes, it is a theory but it's likely too. I'll take Sayaka-Mami fight as an example here, as well as Kuroneko-Madoka.

Sayaka defeating Mami could be due to a few different things, or some combination thereof. Kuroneko-Madoka is just two strong girls having a close match. Kuroneko has her own supporters, and has been one of the stronger SaiMoe girls for awhile now. She doesn't need anti-Madoka Magica voters to help her get strong showings.

I never said it's not possible to be boosted by something, but in the PMMM faction's case, I'd say nothing has change which characters the faction prefer more than the other.

You have no good reason for claiming that, especially given the results of the Ayase/Homura/Madoka match.

Nope, it's not a wild speculation since we're very well aware that the non-Madoka voters are still alive and that was proven by the Kuroneko-Madoka match.

It is wild speculation since Kuroneko-Madoka didn't prove any such thing. Besides, Kuroneko-Madoka has nothing to do with an all-PMMM final where there's no resistance members left. It's very clear that anti-PMMM voters should care about Kuroneko-Madoka. It makes much less sense for them to care about an all-PMMM final.

And to add to that there's a difference between Madoka and Sayaka. Madoka isn't just a major character, she's the most supported character remaining in the competition outside of the faction.

On what basis do you make this claim?

Where as Sayaka is a just Sayaka, and it's pretty much a common knowledge that she's the least liked girl.

On what basis do you claim this? Sayaka defeated Mami, and she certainly did better this year than Kyouko did. She's doing better against Madoka right now than Kyouko did in the Semis.

By the way, where were your anti-voters during Madoka vs. Kyouko? Watashi was still around when this match was being held, so if the anti-voters felt that Madoka was significantly stronger than Kyouko, then why not use Kyouko to snipe Madoka?

No, I think you're greatly overestimating the role of anti-voters in this. Kuroneko did well against Madoka because Kuroneko is legit strong, period. Sayaka did well against Mami either because voters now prefer Sayaka to Mami, or they wanted a different Madoka girl to win it this year, or some combination thereof. That's what I think.

I think Madoka's votes against Kuroneko was the maximum of the faction. I don't see any reason why the faction would hold back during that time when their favorite was losing.

IIRC, Madoka was leading the match comfortably until HanaKana voters pulled off a late-stage surge. It could be that Madoka faction voters simply were lulled into a false sense of security.

Neutral voters might have been there but they're only very few.

You don't know this. This is just pure speculation on your part. There could very well be more neutral voters than there are strictly anti-voters.

Nope, there's no indication that Homura was more popular than Madoka back then among the Saimoe voters,

Sure there was indication of that. Homura's vote total in the match she lost to Mikoto Misaka in 2011 was much higher than any vote total Madoka achieved in 2011, IIRC.

Again, I never said character boosting is a strange thing, but it doesn't mean it's going to apply to every faction or character. Kirino was always hated anyway lol. I see no change in the faction favorites anyway.

For a long time, Kirino was clearly stronger than Ayase, at least in ISML. That changed in ISML 2013. Kirino has always been polarizing, but she was still clearly stronger than Ayase until recently.

Now as I've mentioned earlier, if Madoka loses gaining only around 120 or 130, while Sayaka goes ahead of her, that would be the time I'd say Sayaka was prefered over her this time.

If Sayaka ends up with more votes than Madoka, then she's preferred, period. And if Madoka ends up with more votes, than she's preferred, period. This is the J-SaiMoe Championship match. You only vote for a girl at this point if you're at least comfortable with her winning it all. It's frankly very silly to think that strategic voting overrides that at this point. No, every vote in this match is a vote of approval for whichever girl receives it.

But then again there are still factors to consider like "what could have been the result if it weren't for the bans?"

This argument could be used no matter who wins it all this year.

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

I'm sure the general consensus even among anti-voters is that Madoka is the favourite to win, so it's likely at least some of them will vote for Sayaka to win, because they don't want the fan favourite to win.

Why? Why is this "likely"? Why would they even care? There's no real basis for the speculation that you and Baka are making here.

If anti-voters were this much against Madoka "the favorite" in particular, then one would expect them to anti-vote Madoka during the Madoka vs. Kyouko semi-final. Clearly, they didn't.

[BaKaBaKaOtaKu]

Originally Posted by Coldlight

I beg to differ. I doubt that the so-called anti-voters would be a factor in this match now, because 1.) They'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they were to support a girl from a series they dislike and 2.) Tactical voting is already useless at this point, where there are only PMMM girls left in the running.

I've mentioned this already earlier, 1.) They won't be shooting themselves in the face if they were to vote for the girl that's widespread the least PMMM favorite girl against who the faction wants to win 2.)spite-voting over a series that has dominated for two years is a possibility, you cannot rule that out.

Either way it's already a victory for the PMMM faction, so it's a lot more likely these anti-voters have already packed up and left the moment the last non-PM girl lost. Come on, look at these vote totals for the Final Match: do you seriously believe there are still a lot of anti-voters bothering to participate and make a difference here now?

Yep, and yep.

It's a lot more plausible to consider this a close fight between the core supporters of Sayaka and the core supporters of Madoka with the rest of the PMMM voters reserving judgment until the final hour. Anti-voters would be negligible at this point since I doubt they'd vote for girls they don't care about: for them, Saimoe 2013 has already ended (or died as the naysayers love to say).

I don't think the same clearly, in any case, I am still theorizing since the match hasn't yet ended.

In my view you're one of those who frequently underestimated Sayaka, after all. No matter how many wins she got or how far she went, there were those who never gave her the respect she's due. Even when she's already fighting in the Final Match and giving the favorite girl a good run for her money.

Sayaka was pretty fortunate to face weak opponents. She had a free pass, I cannot give her credit with those one-sided matches. Her fight with Mami was a product of tactical voting for me after seeing the vote counts between Kyouko-Madoka AND Madoka's total against Kuroneko

Originally Posted by Triple_R

lol, a slight swing and here comes the anti-voters.

And they're possibly are

Sayaka defeating Mami could be due to any number of things. Kuroneko-Madoka is just two strong girls having a close match. Kuroneko has her own supporters, and has been one of the stronger SaiMoe girls for awhile now. She doesn't need anti-Madoka Magica voters to help her get strong showings.

IMO, she definitely did and that's how I see it after analyzing the votes.

And you have no good reason for claiming that, especially given the results of the Ayase/Homura/Madoka match.

I have good reason since I've always thought if not tied with Homura, Madoka was the favored one over Homura in Saimoe. Also given that Madoka was picked over Homura with the fight against Ayase, we're gonna take that into account.

It is wild speculation since Kuroneko-Madoka didn't prove any such thing. Besides, Kuroneko-Madoka has nothing to do with an all-PMMM final where there's no resistance members left. It's very clear that anti-PMMM voters should care about Kuroneko-Madoka. It makes much less sense for them to care about an all-PMMM final.

The Kuroneko-Madoka AND Sayaka-Mami matches are likely to have something to do with it if Sayaka gets to still win against Madoka's over 160 or 190 votes. Relying on that crucial match [ruri-MAdoka] was important to figure out how far PMMM's votes could go.

On what basis do you make this claim?

A lot. I hope you aren't blind not to see it.

On what basis do you claim this? Sayaka defeated Mami, and she certainly did better this year than Kyouko did. She's doing better against Madoka right now than Kyouko did in the Semis.

And imo, that has only have to do with the anti-voters supporting her...

Frankly, your strong personal bias is showing. It's quite obvious that you're motivated by a personal dislike of Sayaka, and hence are trying to delegitimize her performance in J-SaiMoe 2013. I find it rather petty on your part, frankly.

You can look at it as you like but I'm just observing here, to predict something. It's rather petty on your part to be bothered by my posts then?

The anti-faction may welll not be at play any more.

They're still there, only a few of them are left I guess

IIRC, Madoka was leading the match comfortably until HanaKana voters pulled off a late-stage surge. It could be that Madoka faction voters simply were lulled into a false sense of security. Given how weak most non-PMMM girls have been since the rule change, I can see how that could happen.

Madoka was NOT leading the match comfortably during the match with Kuroneko given that one was a one major non-intraseries match. It could be but I don't see that. PMMM faction should have been alarmed with how Kuroneko kept on coming closer to her.

You don't know this. This is just pure speculation on your part. There could well be more neutral voters than there are strictly anti-voters.

Maybe, but maybe my speculation is right

Sure there was indication of that. Homura's vote total in the match she lost to Mikoto Misaka in 2011 was much higher than any vote total Madoka achieved in 2011, IIRC.

Sorry, but that doesn't say anything. Madoka was totally unchallenged in the whole competition and even that Madoka-Mami match back then has had some controversy.

For a long time, Kirino was clearly stronger than Ayase, at least in ISML. That changed in ISML 2013. Kirino has always been polarizing, but she was still clearly stronger than Ayase until recently.

Again, you cannot apply that every show...

If Sayaka ends up with more votes than Madoka, then she's preferred, period.

LOL Nope. Period.

This argument could be used no matter who wins it all this year.

That is where I agree with you No contest on that...

[Hachiko]

Heading into the 6 p.m. hour in Japan, and it's 127-112 Madoka, so there is a little separation, but not much.

[Ithekro]

It may become a photo finish...but with disappointingly low numbers.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Why? Why is this "likely"? Why would they even care? There's no real basis for the speculation that you and Baka are making here.

If anti-voters were this much against Madoka "the favorite" in particular, then one would expect them to anti-vote Madoka during the Madoka vs. Kyouko semi-final. Clearly, they didn't.

I said "some", not "most" or "all". Many of them won't care. Some do. A reason why they would care, would maybe be to troll the MadoMagi fanbase one last time or something (you'll be surprised how many people do that kind of thing). Most fans, neutrals and haters alike would be expecting Madoka to win.

It's likely they saw that they had no chance of succeeding in that regard in the semi-final so they neglected to bother with it, but they did see such a chance in the final. And it shows; Kyouko trailed by a lot all the way. Compare that to Sayaka's performance.

Still, the last hour of the match will be interesting, one way or another.

EDIT: 141-122 Madoka. Sayaka's trailing by only 19 votes (pending removal of votes). How much of a difference will these 19 votes make?

[Wanderer]

Go Sayaka.

[Demi.]

After Homura lost to Madoka...Madoka losing to Sayaka wouldn't surprise me. That way, the Madomagi's popularity can be in the reverse order of what I assumed they were.

[Hachiko]

151-125, Madoka now heading into the last three hours.

[npal]

Originally Posted by Hachiko

151-125, Madoka now heading into the last three hours.

What's the typical fake vote count this year? Seems like a strange spike seeing as they were mostly head to head.

[scineram]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

While I certainly share your desire for Sayaka to win, what makes you think Madoka has been cheating? Just curious.

She lost already.

[Hachiko]

Originally Posted by npal

What's the typical fake vote count this year? Seems like a strange spike seeing as they were mostly head to head.

Fake votes seem to be minimal this time around, as the organizers have run a tight ship after enacting the new rule. 165-131 Madoka heading into the penultimate hour.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by npal

What's the typical fake vote count this year? Seems like a strange spike seeing as they were mostly head to head.

No, just the usual final surge.


166-138 now. Sayaka pulled back a bit.

[Hachiko]

We're into the final hour of voting in this entire competition. 178-141 Madoka now.

[Triple_R]

@BaKaBaKaOtaKu

I edited that post after I made it, and the edit included some important new points.

One being - Where were your anti-voters during Madoka vs. Kyouko? If anti-Madoka faction voters are as against Madoka winning it all as you seem to think they are, then they should have at least tried to have Madoka eliminated in the semi-finals match against Kyouko.

Clearly, they didn't do this, which I think throws the argument that you and iamadooddood are making into complete discredit. Your argument just doesn't make any good sense whatsoever given that anti-voters didn't show up in Madoka vs. Kyouko (which was close enough in absolute votes that anti-voters ought to have at least tried here if they were that against Madoka winning it all).

Anti-voters also had Watashi as a consideration during Madoka vs. Kyouko, whereas no such resistance member consideration is in play for Madoka vs. Sayaka. So anti-voters had much more reason to show up in Madoka vs. Kyouko than they have for showing up now when no resistance members are left.

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

I said "some", not "most" or "all". Many of them won't care. Some do. A reason why they would care, would maybe be to troll the MadoMagi fanbase one last time or something (you'll be surprised how many people do that kind of thing). Most fans, neutrals and haters alike would be expecting Madoka to win.

It's likely they saw that they had no chance of succeeding in that regard in the semi-final so they neglected to bother with it, but they did see such a chance in the final. And it shows; Kyouko trailed by a lot all the way. Compare that to Sayaka's performance.

Or maybe Sayaka is just stronger than Kyouko is? Maybe you and Baka ought to acquaint yourselves with Occam's Razor.

Kyouko was close enough to Madoka that there's no good reason for anti-voters to fail to show up in that match if they're that against Kaname Madoka winning it all. The argument that you and Baka are making here is very flimsy and speculative, and should be dropped as a serious consideration. It just does not fit all the facts well, and is a needlessly complicated speculation given that perfectly viable and more simple explanations are readily available.

Originally Posted by BaKaBaKaOtaKu

Sayaka was pretty fortunate to face weak opponents.

Mami's opponents weren't necessarily significantly strong themselves, given the affect of the rule change.

Madoka is obviously pretty fortunate that a 2nd chance system even exists. In any previous year, she would have been gone for good in the 2nd Round.

And they're possibly are

No, not really. The vote totals in this match are not that high. You're being overly speculative here.

IMO, she definitely did...

Why? Why do you think Kuroneko definitely needed anti-vote support? Kuroneko won a Block with no Madoka Magica girl in it. She did very well in J-SaiMoe 2011. There's every reason in the world to consider Kuroneko legit strong of her own accord.

I see no good reason whatsoever for your low estimation of Kuroneko's strength.

I have good reason since I've always thought if not tied with Homura, Madoka was the favored one over Homura in Saimoe.

Based on vote totals through the 2011 matches, you're simply wrong here.

So no, you don't have any good reason for your speculations, or your assumptions.

Sorry, but that doesn't say anything. Madoka was totally unchallenged in the whole competition and even that Madoka-Mami match back then has had some controversy.

What controversy was there in Mami's victory over Madoka in 2011? I don't recall there being any controversy there.

Homura getting way more votes in the match against Railgun says plenty when we evaluate her strength at the time compared to Madoka's strength. There's plenty of reason to think that Homura was stronger than Madoka in J-SaiMoe 2011, and would have went farther than Madoka if not for Railgun voters cheating.

LOL Nope. Period.

I gave a perfectly good argument for why the winner of this match is the girl that is preferred by the voters, period. If you think differently, then please explain your reasoning. As is, your arguments and words are far from compelling, as you're simply making bold proclamations without the slightest element of supporting argumentation.

[Hachiko]

Madoka has now cracked 200. Sayaka to crack 150 soon. 205-149, the Goddess.