[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

Now if you want to argue he's some kind of yakuza assassin or something, maybe, but generally the police don't go around killing old men so they can impersonate them.

Judoh was the one who suggested the possibility of an undercover cop. I only meant to say that room for replacing Dr. Nanjo still exists.

I don't think an undercover cop is a very plausible use of it. Even though it is not impossible that Dr. Nanjo died of natural causes (his age is on par with Kinzo's after all, that wouldn't be too unusual) and the undercover cop took the chance to replace him because insertion in this manner was justifiable for reason X, that would stretch plausibility rather thinly.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Renall

That wouldn't really square with the "undercover cop" theory though. The police wouldn't actually kill Dr. Nanjo. Now, if he were already dead, that's one thing, but he'd have to die and have his death be covered up in some manner by the police or something. Even in Japan, I can't see them going quite that far.

Now if you want to argue he's some kind of yakuza assassin or something, maybe, but generally the police don't go around killing old men so they can impersonate them.

Uh... I didn't say he had to die and be replaced by anybody to be an undercover cop. I just thought that'd be interesting if they used the LIG sprite for that. To maybe Give Nanjo a cool costume or something like they did with Tomitake in minagoroshi-hen.

I was also thinking that might give him some decent character development. I wasn't looking to turn him into a culprit or anything. More like a detective.

It was a shot in the dark anyway.

[Sentou]

I personally don't sit well with Shkanon. The concept bugs me to no end, and I really like Joshua as his own character. That being said, there's more for it than against it.

The reason why I don't sit well with Shkanon beyond my appreciation of Joshua is Jessica. She's best friends with Shannon and is shown to hang out with Kanon three years prior to the series. But sitting well or not, I must keep an open mind.

Therefore, I propose that if Shkanon is true, Jessica would know about it.

However, let this not be taken to say that she is the culprit, mastermind, or Beatrice. Rather, take this as a positive thing.

I think that if Shkanon is true, Jessica's role this entire time has been to subtly lead Battler to the truth.

In one sense, we can take her actions in episode 4 as proof of this. I propose Jessica's blatant lies towards Battler were really just an attempt to have him remember his sin.

Or perhaps she truly is clueless and in the dark. In which case, I propose Jessica is living in a lie, perhaps a joint lie between Shannon and Kanon.

Anyone else have any theories pertaining to just how Jessica does or does not fit in with Shkanon?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Sentou

However, let this not be taken to say that she is the culprit, mastermind, or Beatrice. Rather, take this as a positive thing.

I think that if Shkanon is true, Jessica's role this entire time has been to subtly lead Battler to the truth.

...which is pretty much the definition of Beatrice, mind you.

[Shiro Kaisen]

Originally Posted by Sentou

I propose Jessica's blatant lies towards Battler were really just an attempt to have him remember his sin.

I actually agree with this, but not in a Shkanon-y way.

Jessica knows that Shannon is the bomber and Beatrice, and is trying to force Battler to accept magic and witches so that she could confront him as Suit Beatrice, allowing him to remember his sin. If he did so, Shannon promised Jessica she would disarm the bomb.

[Sentou]

I never have considered that Jessica was Suit Beato.
I have always thought there is but one Beatrice.

I like the idea though, I do. So, what you are saying, is that Jessica dressed up as Suit Beato so Shannon would disarm a bomb? My only complaint is that Jessica wouldn't just play nice with the murderer of her parent. I don't quite think this is a thing that Jessica would just "stumble" onto, there has to be some pregame setup.

I propose that If Jessica was Suit Beato in episode 4, she must have had time to practice or even "be" Beatrice, as the Beatrice Battler met in episode 4 was very convincing.

In other words, From the beginning of the episode, Jessica had a specific role she knew she was going to play.

[Shiro Kaisen]

Originally Posted by Sentou

I never have considered that Jessica was Suit Beato.
I have always thought there is but one Beatrice.

I always thought it was obvious. No one else has blonde hair, and I dunno if I can buy Shannon wearing a wig.

I like the idea though, I do. So, what you are saying, is that Jessica dressed up as Suit Beato so Shannon would disarm a bomb? My only complaint is that Jessica wouldn't just play nice with the murderer of her parent. I don't quite think this is a thing that Jessica would just "stumble" onto, there has to be some pregame setup.

"Beatrice," or Shannon, is not the culprit. She organizes the Fake First Twilight and only commits circumstantial murders, like Kanon. Jessica discovers Shannon's plan during the course of the game and tries to talk her out of it. Shannon did not kill Natsuhi.

[Sentou]

Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen

I always thought it was obvious. No one else has blonde hair, and I dunno if I can buy Shannon wearing a wig.

Well, the best way to hide something is to put it in plain view, I suppose. And the location works out fine.


"Beatrice," or Shannon, is not the culprit. She organizes the Fake First Twilight and only commits circumstantial murders, like Kanon. Jessica discovers Shannon's plan during the course of the game and tries to talk her out of it. Shannon did not kill Natsuhi.

Hm. Then who killed Jessica? And if Shannon is not the culprit, why detonate a bomb? I would love to believe that our beloved Beatrice is not a murderer, I would. But just as a check: If Shannon and Kanon are seperate entities, I think that Jessica would not play along with someone or in a plan that resulted in Kanon's death.

Jessica being relatively normal and just trying to communicate effectively towards Battler makes sense, but only so long as we have Shkanon in there or Shannon as someone who did not kill anyone.

That being said, it's a fact that Jessica has very strange movements in episode 4, and I think we're onto something here.

[Shiro Kaisen]

Originally Posted by Sentou

Hm. Then who killed Jessica? And if Shannon is not the culprit, why detonate a bomb? I would love to believe that our beloved Beatrice is not a murderer, I would. But just as a check: If Shannon and Kanon are seperate entities, I think that Jessica would not play along with someone or in a plan that resulted in Kanon's death.

Jessica being relatively normal and just trying to communicate effectively towards Battler makes sense, but only so long as we have Shkanon in there or Shannon as someone who did not kill anyone.

That being said, it's a fact that Jessica has very strange movements in episode 4, and I think we're onto something here.

When Jessica failed to induce Battler's memory, Shannon chose to lay Jessica to rest in her bedroom rather than have her experience the pain of being blown to bits in the explosion. This explains the scene with Dress Beato and Suit Beato towards the end of 4.

It is also very likely that the fake death team and the culprit are different people, for obvious reasons. We see Beatrice speaking to the adults in Episode 2 before the First Twilight. Those same adults are the ones who are found dead in the chapel later, fake death plan clearly ruined. But if Beatrice was the one who organized the plan, then Beatrice wouldn't have been their killer.

In other words, Beatrice isn't the culprit.

Also, Jessica would want to go along with Shannon, because she could save Kanon's life by getting Shannon to disarm the bomb.

[ameskitty]

Originally Posted by Shiro Kaisen

When Jessica failed to induce Battler's memory, Shannon chose to lay Jessica to rest in her bedroom rather than have her experience the pain of being blown to bits in the explosion. This explains the scene with Dress Beato and Suit Beato towards the end of 4.

Actually, I think the opposite, mostly because you wouldn't have time to experience dying in an explosion. It'd be painless and completely unexpected (?). But you would have time to experience getting stabbed in the back.

Whenever the second twilight doesn't involve the lovers and excluding EP5 (the first twilights also seem to be "special", as many have pointed out), Jessica survives to the end. And I've always found that odd.

The one who's doing most of the killing seems to prefer to give her a quick and peaceful death (or perhaps they don't know about the explosion and would actually prefer to leave her alive) rather than have her murdered for some unknown reason. Love? Friendship? A bribe/deal with somebody? She's an accomplice?

[Judoh]

I don't think we should have a special classification of culprit called a "bomber" in the first place. And I wish Klyon99 had not listed that like he did. I just don't like how people fixate on the explosion. Sure it's confirmed, but a lot people had already believed it was a bomb at the time and we weren't so obsessed with who did it we just accepted that it explained why only a couple people were left. That and we know Ryukishi loves disasters.

It's best not to over complicate things

[Sentou]

Originally Posted by ameskitty

The one who's doing most of the killing seems to prefer to give her a quick and peaceful death (or perhaps they don't know about the explosion and would actually prefer to leave her alive) rather than have her murdered for some unknown reason. Love? Friendship? A bribe/deal with somebody? She's an accomplice?

You see, it is indeed true that Jessica has the longest survival rate out of anyone, barring Battler of course. She even makes it to the end alive more than he does, if you consider him to die at the end of 3, 4, and 5. However, I very much doubt that Jessica would make a deal or be an accomplice. She's simply(and this sounds so corny) too pure to do that. Murder is a line that she simply won't cross without being "possessed". Episode 6 worded it best: "But even though they were pieces, Jessica felt that they deserved right to live."

Whatever Jessica's involvement, as a villain I cannot see her.

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Judoh

I don't think we should have a special classification of culprit called a "bomber" in the first place. And I wish Klyon99 had not listed that like he did. I just don't like how people fixate on the explosion. Sure it's confirmed, but a lot people had already believed it was a bomb at the time and we weren't so obsessed with who did it we just accepted that it explained why only a couple people were left. That and we know Ryukishi loves disasters.

It's best not to over complicate things

Well, it's possible that the explosion is random, weather induced or an accident. But I think most people are thinking that the explosion happens at midnight, and that indicates some kind of rigging.

If you have rigging, then you have a human culprit responsible for setting it off. If you have a human, then you have to have some kind of motive. I think we've had several pages already discussing how this guy's motive doesn't match the motive of the other funny things going on such as the Faking, or Kinzo, or the (re)killer. I think it's important that we work it out.


But, I thought we all worked out some very possible culprit(s)? Namely Kinzo or Krauss due to opportunity and somewhat of an already presented motive. Or was that in a different thread?

Anyways, working this guy out is important because it *may* remove one more person from the culprit list... (the re-killer, I guess.)

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

Well, it's possible that the explosion is random, weather induced or an accident. But I think most people are thinking that the explosion happens at midnight, and that indicates some kind of rigging.

Actually, it is possible for an accidental explosion of a non-natural origin to be inevitably induced exactly at midnight without human intervention, it just requires rather silly things to happen, like being triggered by the clock chime or another event that inevitably happens at midnight.

In particular, certain kinds of failures in analog electronics can result from changes happening at a human-exact time boundary, because the changes are caused by humans in the first place, and humans like precise time boundaries. If your TV is about to spontaneously combust due to wear, the chance for it happening exactly when a certain advertisement runs that excites the high voltage circuits that drive the CRT Just So is slightly higher than in any other moment.

Not that this is a possibility that should be considered too seriously, mind you.

[rogerpepitone]

As for longest-surviving, my opinion is that George and Nanjo tend to live the longest. Note that Jessica is confirmed dead early in Episode 2, but there are very few deaths after George or Nanjo is confirmed dead:
After George: Nanjo in Episode 3, Beatrice in Episode 4
After Nanjo: Natsuhi in Episode 1, Battler in Episode 3


Principle: Any person might be willing to engage in fake witch-related activities for innocent reasons (to please Maria, to distract Krauss, because they think it's part of Kinzo's will) before they learn about the real murders. After learning about the murders, such a person would probably simply stop quietly (if admitting the actions solely made themselves suspicious), but might say what they did if they could connect somebody else with the crimes.


Reread the first letter from Episodes 1 and 2. Note that it doesn't refer to death at all.
Hypothesis: The letter is independent of the murders. After the letter was produced, the killer decided to change plans to blame the witch.

Note the strong similarities between the discord letters in Episodes 1 and 2, the similar circumstances under which both appeared, and their ambiguity of threat.
Conclusion: The discord letter was produced by the same mind behind the first letter and was not connected to the murders.

Then, why did the letter appear in those two Episodes?
- First, Battler and Maria are the only two present when the letter appears. Genji is also alive at both times, but is under observation the entire time. George is present in Episode 1 and might (though very unlikely) be alive in Episode 2 sometime between when they leave the parlor and find the envelope. (Jessica and Natsuhi are dead long before the envelope appears in Episode 2; Nanjo and Kumasawa are found dead too soon after they leave the parlor.)
Battler's out as the detective, but Maria is a natural for this. In addition to everything else, of all the characters, she's the only one who might continue on with innocent witch actions after the deaths start (believing everything to be part of the game).

Maria can't have done the letters entirely on her own (she couldn't have sealed it without Kinzo's ring), so I think she received them from somebody else and was under instructions to make the discord letter appear around 9/10 PM if the epitaph hadn't been solved, and not to break character until the game ends. So why didn't this person cancel the later letter after learning about the real murders? Through Episode 2, Rosa was watching Maria like a hawk after the first twilight, but Maria was unattended through much of Episode 1; the author could have spoken with her privately and asked for the letter back.

Conclusion: The author of the first two letters is very likely somebody who died at the first twilight in Episode 1, and possibly at the first twilight in Episode 2.

Shannon: is a natural Beatrice. She's of the physical type, could have gotten the ring, and is the sort of person who could have been playing Beatrice in past years. Slight difficulty: failure to cancel the letter in Episode 2
Krauss: is possible. He could have gotten the ring, and given everything to Maria, say, around noon, and told her to separate from everyone else in the afternoon and lie about when she got the letter. Difficulty: it's out of character for him to have been playing Beatrice in past years.
Kyrie and/or Rudolf: Out. While Rudolf is up to something with his "I'll probably be killed tonight" comment, there's no way either of them could have gotten Kinzo's ring.
Rosa: Out. Unless she has DID, it's out of character for her to be playing Beatrice in past years. She couldn't have gotten Kinzo's ring, and could have very simply canceled the letter in Episode 2. Also, knowing that the letter was fake, she could have simply ignored it.
Gohda: Out. He couldn't have gotten the ring, and hasn't been there long enough to have been playing Beatrice in past years.

I'd also include Kumasawa as a maybe. While her failure to stop the discord letter in Episode 1 is odd, it is in character for her to be the person who was playing Beatrice in previous years.

[Raiza Sunozaki]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Actually, it is possible for an accidental explosion of a non-natural origin to be inevitably induced exactly at midnight without human intervention, it just requires rather silly things to happen, like being triggered by the clock chime or another event that inevitably happens at midnight.

In particular, certain kinds of failures in analog electronics can result from changes happening at a human-exact time boundary, because the changes are caused by humans in the first place, and humans like precise time boundaries. If your TV is about to spontaneously combust due to wear, the chance for it happening exactly when a certain advertisement runs that excites the high voltage circuits that drive the CRT Just So is slightly higher than in any other moment.

Not that this is a possibility that should be considered too seriously, mind you.

Geez Oliver, you always pick the most ridiculous realistic explanations to explain what happens...
Problem is, we don't have any proof that the any of the televisions on Rokkenjima are close to collapse. In fact, considering Natsuhi's obsession with the quality of the mansion, she'd probably replace the televisions at any point that they start to look slightly worn. Not like the family can't afford it.
The initial explanation for the explosion, and the one I personally still like the best, is the boiler. We're given plenty of proof that the thing is close to collapse, and when I asked my science teacher, she said an exploding boiler could easily cause quite the explosion. And it wouldn't be hard to rig it up to explode at a certain time, providing the boiler doesn't go before that time. All you would need would be a smaller explosion beside it to trigger a chain explosion.
There are some problems with it though. Despite it being a large explosion, it doesn't explain why there's a freakin' crater on the island. As I said before, for a large-scale explosion such as that, the explosion would have to be twenty or thirty metres down below the island to trigger a crater that large.

[ArcticHelm]

It depends how many tunnels are under the island and their location. I don't think it'd be too hard to think that a boiler explosion could cause a chain reaction where the mansion, etc collapse into the tunnels. I think it's possible to even combine the bomb theory and the boiler theory. Perhaps someone planned to blow up merely the mansion, but was unaware of explosives in the underground tunnels.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Shannon: is a natural Beatrice. She's of the physical type, could have gotten the ring, and is the sort of person who could have been playing Beatrice in past years. Slight difficulty: failure to cancel the letter in Episode 2

Then, let me add a little to your chain of reasoning for EP2.

The wounds for the first twilight were uncharacteristically brutal and complicated, compared to the culprit's usual M.O. The scene also appears to have been staged for Maria's benefit due to the "Happy Halloween for Maria" graffiti on the chapel door. However, creating fake intestines and chest wounds would be a relatively easy process.

Conclusion: The supposed cause of death was part of the first twilight fakery, and the victims were actually killed by something unobtrusive that nobody noticed. As a result, the fakers didn't stop the performance at this point.

The taunting letter that Jessica found after the first twilight was out of character for the true culprit, and the text assumed it would be found by one of the children even though it should have been impossible to predict this.

Conclusion: Jessica was among the performers, and intended to set up the second twilight. In other words, all the way up until Jessica's body was discovered, the fakers hadn't realized that anyone was dead.

After this point, the servants were separated from the other survivors because of Rosa's suspicion, so Shannon wouldn't have had any chance to talk to Maria at all.

[Raiza Sunozaki]

Originally Posted by ArcticHelm

It depends how many tunnels are under the island and their location. I don't think it'd be too hard to think that a boiler explosion could cause a chain reaction where the mansion, etc collapse into the tunnels. I think it's possible to even combine the bomb theory and the boiler theory. Perhaps someone planned to blow up merely the mansion, but was unaware of explosives in the underground tunnels.

While there's no evidence against other tunnels, the only one we have proof for existing is the one connecting the mansion area to the Kuwadorian. I guess in a bit of twisted logic, you could say the existence of one permits the existence of others, but it's too loose. I don't like it.

[DgBarca]

Originally Posted by Raiza Sunozaki

While there's no evidence against other tunnels, the only one we have proof for existing is the one connecting the mansion area to the Kuwadorian. I guess in a bit of twisted logic, you could say the existence of one permits the existence of others, but it's too loose. I don't like it.

and the tunnel that leads to the gold...or maybe it's the same hohohohoho *mackerel*