North Korea Crisis

[Shadow Kira01]

Communist party surges as Japan's economy withers

Japan products found on NKorea missile kit vessel

People are supporting the communists who most likely had a role in product mislabeling involving Chinese goods and mostly likely are involved with exporting parts to North Korea that can be used as a type of missile kit against Japan, it is definitely unbelievable.

On the contrary, this rising concern can also be blamed on Aso's impressive capabilities. If only he could have fixed the economy, as well as other matters. Things wouldn't have go downhill now. Perhaps, now is a good time to call for general elections considering that Ozawa isn't doing too well either. Then again, what happens if the Liberal Democrats actually lose..?

The Democratic Party of Japan consists of people with multiple beliefs in which some have conflicting views. There are the hawkish conservatives and at the same time, there are also the socialists and communists. How will their policies play out if they take control of the government?

Let me guess.. First, Ozawa will schedule a trip over to China. After that, Ozawa will be having a meeting with Obama to discuss his anti-American views, such as not supporting the Afghan mission and then, what will come next? I cannot imagine.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

It's highly debatable if katyushas have the range to hit Seoul. They certainly lack the accuracy to do much damage. Unless you're referring to something else?

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

As for using chemical weapons, that's a great way to get a bad end for the North. The US may consider using nukes in response. North Korea's chemical sites are going to be high proprity targets too, so unless they use them quickly, they might not get a chance to at all.

Keep in mind that they don't really care who or what they hit. Even if they went to hell, they would certainly drag others with them too.

Artillery rockets are different from shells, because of their jet-assisted capabilities, they can be GUIDED using things as simple as only a gyroscope.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

They can be intercepted by the patriot family of missiles. Patriots have been refined since 1991 when they saw marginal success against Iraqi scuds fired at Israel and Saudi Arabia, and at the ranges we're talking about here, the North Korean scuds shouldn't break up as frequently as the Iraqi scuds did, something which greatly limited the patriot's effectiveness. Frogs shouldn't have that issue at all.

You forgot about multiple warheads deployment. I am not sure if N.K has that, but they are pretty much a norm in modern warfare where interceptors are present.

Also, a Patriot missile is more expensive than a Scud, the kill vehicle itself is around 1.5x - 2x the cost of a Scud, minus the missile system, radar, tracker, launch module, etc.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

There's only so much you can do to extend the range before you simply need a bigger gun. I highly doubt the North's 155mm and smaller guns are going to be hitting Seoul from their positions on border. Of course I'm sure there are civilian population centers closer that they certainly can hit with those, but they'd be more effective used against border fortifications. Of course I fully expect the North to focus on causing civllian casualties rather than pure military effectiveness i hopes it'll stop the enevitable.

Having trained their armed forces extensively in special operations, killing the North Korean's launch sites, sabotaging their chain of command, raiding their supplies and collecting field intelligence can prove to be significantly more challenging for elite units like the USSOCOM and SAS compared to the latter's other theatre of operations.

Originally Posted by Spectacular_Insanity

The US Air Force and Navy would take care of that problem. Stealth bombers would take care of any anti-air and artillery they might have, then the US simply brings in whatever heavy stuff they need by boats, or helicopter/aircraft carrier. Or they could use their destroyers to pelt them with artillery from the sea. Why would they advance by land? That would mean going through the DMZ, which would be retarded to say the least. The US military is technologically and tactically superior in all regards to North Korea.

The problem is that, we DON'T know exactly what the REAL statistics of N.K's army. It isn't Afghanistan in which U.S took using ONLY their Special Forces assets. Who knows if they actually have the fighting potential equivalent of Iran's? Unless we plan to level the entire N.K using Iowa class battlecruisers, a "humantarian invasion" might prove to be costly.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Keep in mind that they don't really care who or what they hit. Even if they went to hell, they would certainly drag others with them too.

Artillery rockets are different from shells, because of their jet-assisted capabilities, they can be GUIDED using things as simple as only a gyroscope.

Katyushas aren't guided. Also I think they do care about whether they hit an empty field as opposed to something worth hitting.

You forgot about multiple warheads deployment. I am not sure if N.K has that, but they are pretty much a norm in modern warfare where interceptors are present.

Scuds don't have multiple warheads.

Also, a Patriot missile is more expensive than a Scud, the kill vehicle itself is around 1.5x - 2x the cost of a Scud, minus the missile system, radar, tracker, launch module, etc.

That doesn't really matter considering the vast disparity in economics between the two sides. Even if a patriot costs more in absolute terms, in terms of percentage, that scud represents a much larger investment by North Korea than the patroit does for South Korea, let alone the US. Factor in preventing damage the scud would have caused if it hit, and it comes out even further ahead.

Having trained their armed forces extensively in special operations, killing the North Korean's launch sites, sabotaging their chain of command, raiding their supplies and collecting field intelligence can prove to be significantly more challenging for elite units like the USSOCOM and SAS compared to the latter's other theatre of operations.

Which will help them avoid a gps guided bomb how exactly? The US wouldn't send in specops to take out a missile site. They'd hit it from the air.

The problem is that, we DON'T know exactly what the REAL statistics of N.K's army. It isn't Afghanistan in which U.S took using ONLY their Special Forces assets. Who knows if they actually have the fighting potential equivalent of Iran's? Unless we plan to level the entire N.K using Iowa class battlecruisers, a "humantarian invasion" might prove to be costly.

No, the US used a lot of air assets and the special forces were more to coordinate with indigninous Afhgan troops. It wasn't done with just special forces. Further the only reason that worked at all was because the Taliban had enemies in Afganistan that allied with the US to defeat them. If that hadn't happened, it would have taken a lot of ground troops.

On the other hand, we have North Korea, a nation that can barely feed it's people. A nation who's borders can be seen from orbit at night because that's where the lights from towns and cities in South Korea and China stop. The only reason they can even field what they have is because they ignore pretty much all other areas of their economy and throw money into rockets while children starve.

[Zippicus]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

The problem is that, we DON'T know exactly what the REAL statistics of N.K's army. It isn't Afghanistan in which U.S took using ONLY their Special Forces assets. Who knows if they actually have the fighting potential equivalent of Iran's? Unless we plan to level the entire N.K using Iowa class battlecruisers, a "humantarian invasion" might prove to be costly.

I think you would be pretty surprised at the level of detailed intelligence available, especially for a potential hot spot like North Korea. As far as a plan of action, they already have plans drawn up for virtually all of the plausible combat scenarios involving a war with North Korea, hell they've been drawn up and regularly updated for years.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Katyushas aren't guided. Also I think they do care about whether they hit an empty field as opposed to something worth hitting.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Scuds don't have multiple warheads.

I was implying that the appropriate apparatus can be fitted, not that they are already installed.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

That doesn't really matter considering the vast disparity in economics between the two sides. Even if a patriot costs more in absolute terms, in terms of percentage, that scud represents a much larger investment by North Korea than the patroit does for South Korea, let alone the US. Factor in preventing damage the scud would have caused if it hit, and it comes out even further ahead.

Like I said, the North knows that they are going to fight a losing war with US, so they would probably drag others down with them. The cost of the missile doesn't matter anymore when the war is bound to reach a stalemate.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

Which will help them avoid a gps guided bomb how exactly? The US wouldn't send in specops to take out a missile site. They'd hit it from the air.

Guided bombs don't just fall free. They need designations, like a beacon or a call-for-fire from the ground. Recon teams are sent in for that purpose. Satellites just relay information to the missile.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

No, the US used a lot of air assets and the special forces were more to coordinate with indigninous Afhgan troops. It wasn't done with just special forces. Further the only reason that worked at all was because the Taliban had enemies in Afganistan that allied with the US to defeat them. If that hadn't happened, it would have taken a lot of ground troops.

What I was saying is that regular ground troops like infantry and mass invasion scale assaults with armour isn't present. The SpecOps did most of the groundwork, planting beacons, sabotaging supplies, etc. Most of the engagements are strike force sized (engagements are often less than a battalion or division). Afghan tanks are PICKED off from the desert using superior range of the Abrams (with a kill range of over 2 km and are using APDS shells versus Afghan light tanks with STEEL PENETRATORS), and man-to-man combat is pretty imba since the US have body armor, superior training, precision weapons, etc.

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

On the other hand, we have North Korea, a nation that can barely feed it's people. A nation who's borders can be seen from orbit at night because that's where the lights from towns and cities in South Korea and China stop. The only reason they can even field what they have is because they ignore pretty much all other areas of their economy and throw money into rockets while children starve.

They pretty much not even have an economy to begin with, other than exporting chemical weapons and rockets to countries like Iran.

You got a point on that one though, IMO at least India is better. They don't have money to maintain their tanks but at least can feed their soldiers. North can't even do both.

Originally Posted by Zippicus

I think you would be pretty surprised at the level of detailed intelligence available, especially for a potential hot spot like North Korea. As far as a plan of action, they already have plans drawn up for virtually all of the plausible combat scenarios involving a war with North Korea, hell they've been drawn up and regularly updated for years.

I am not surprised if it all actually would result in landing a Peacekeeper in the worst case scenario. Besides, the land is pretty mountainous, so there is a chance that air superiority might be rendered useless. "Shaving" the hilltops (shelling the hills till it is bald and black) is a no-no as it might cause extensive environmental damage. However, this is a perfect place for both sides to conduct guerilla warfare, which might prolong the war and drain Special Forces assets in the long run.

Personally I would recommend sending in SAD to kill off the generals (in whatever way they deem fit) and the brainwashed military personnel, to me the country is pretty much a basket case with little left for salvaging.

[Zippicus]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

I am not surprised if it all actually would result in landing a Peacekeeper in the worst case scenario. Besides, the land is pretty mountainous, so there is a chance that air superiority might be rendered useless. "Shaving" the hilltops (shelling the hills till it is bald and black) is a no-no as it might cause extensive environmental damage. However, this is a perfect place for both sides to conduct guerilla warfare, which might prolong the war and drain Special Forces assets in the long run.

Personally I would recommend sending in SAD to kill off the generals (in whatever way they deem fit) and the brainwashed military personnel, to me the country is pretty much a basket case with little left for salvaging.

While it was used slightly differently, there was plenty of air force action in the Korean war. With all the guided munitions we use now it would be no problem, hell Afghanistan is rougher terrain and it works just fine there. For the most part, special forces units are very small, they're not really used in normal combat. Notable exceptions would be paratroopers. But in any case the heavy fighting would be done by regular units, most likely the ones already stationed along the DMZ. The only real major concern is China and how they would react.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Zippicus

While it was used slightly differently, there was plenty of air force action in the Korean war. With all the guided munitions we use now it would be no problem, hell Afghanistan is rougher terrain and it works just fine there. For the most part, special forces units are very small, they're not really used in normal combat. Notable exceptions would be paratroopers. But in any case the heavy fighting would be done by regular units, most likely the ones already stationed along the DMZ. The only real major concern is China and how they would react.

China's reaction depends completely on who fire the first shot. If the US attack i am not sure who China would react but if Kim was stupid to fire first. The only thing China would do seal their side of the border to prevent the massive deluge of refugees form the crossing the border.

However, this is a perfect place for both sides to conduct guerilla warfare, which might prolong the war and drain Special Forces assets in the long run.

Don't think so. i really doubt the NK troops are that loyal maybe the core but the majority of the army would surrender. Currently as it stands NK can't even feed its own troops. Of course it would be better for the South if NK troops would fight to the death. Otherwise they would be saddle with a million of so former NK soilders who have no applicable skills in modern society but is train to kill.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

I was implying that the appropriate apparatus can be fitted, not that they are already installed.

This is a much bigger task than you seem to think. You're talking about designing a new weapons system here. For guided katyushas, it's a complete waste, as their whole point is being small, cheap rockets you can fire in mass. For scuds with updated capabilities, hasn't North Korean been working on that?

Like I said, the North knows that they are going to fight a losing war with US, so they would probably drag others down with them. The cost of the missile doesn't matter anymore when the war is bound to reach a stalemate.

No, they'd try to do as much damage as possible, but not to try to drag others down with them. It'd be to try to get their enemies to agree to a ceasefire.

Guided bombs don't just fall free. They need designations, like a beacon or a call-for-fire from the ground. Recon teams are sent in for that purpose. Satellites just relay information to the missile.

You're thinking of laser guided bombs, not GPS guided ones. While laser guided bombs can work with a team on the ground doing the spotting, the target can be designated by a laser on the launch platform as well. They prefer to use ground based targeting when possible because it means the plane doesn't have to hang around until the bomb hits, you don't have to worry as much about cloud cover obscuring the target, and there's a better chance that the guys on the ground are going to paint the correct target. Advantages for sure, but not necessary, especially for a large chemical site.

What I was saying is that regular ground troops like infantry and mass invasion scale assaults with armour isn't present. The SpecOps did most of the groundwork, planting beacons, sabotaging supplies, etc. Most of the engagements are strike force sized (engagements are often less than a battalion or division). Afghan tanks are PICKED off from the desert using superior range of the Abrams (with a kill range of over 2 km and are using APDS shells versus Afghan light tanks with STEEL PENETRATORS), and man-to-man combat is pretty imba since the US have body armor, superior training, precision weapons, etc.

True, but that was because the US was able to make allies with Afgan warlords opposed to the Taliban who provided the ground troops. The US just gave them very heavy air support and the SpecOps forces gave support. Once again, without that ready supply of Afgans willing to fight, that wouldn't have been possible.

They pretty much not even have an economy to begin with, other than exporting chemical weapons and rockets to countries like Iran.

But what economy they do have is used to support their military. They're on pretty much a constant warfooting. This means they have no strategic depth to replace losses.

You got a point on that one though, IMO at least India is better. They don't have money to maintain their tanks but at least can feed their soldiers. North can't even do both.

What does India have to do with anything?

I am not surprised if it all actually would result in landing a Peacekeeper in the worst case scenario. Besides, the land is pretty mountainous, so there is a chance that air superiority might be rendered useless. "Shaving" the hilltops (shelling the hills till it is bald and black) is a no-no as it might cause extensive environmental damage. However, this is a perfect place for both sides to conduct guerilla warfare, which might prolong the war and drain Special Forces assets in the long run.

Wait, are you claiming the US wouldn't bring as much firepower as they can to bare on targets because of possible environmental damage?

Personally I would recommend sending in SAD to kill off the generals (in whatever way they deem fit) and the brainwashed military personnel, to me the country is pretty much a basket case with little left for salvaging.

Something tells me the North Koreans won't be as keen to support their dear leader as you think when it comes down to war.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Kamui4356

This is a much bigger task than you seem to think. You're talking about designing a new weapons system here. For guided katyushas, it's a complete waste, as their whole point is being small, cheap rockets you can fire in mass. For scuds with updated capabilities, hasn't North Korean been working on that?

Dumb bombs are not redesigned in the first place. They just added a few stuff to make them JDAMs. And the Katyusha rockets are of a much simpler design, so wouldn't it be easier to add frills?

No, they'd try to do as much damage as possible, but not to try to drag others down with them. It'd be to try to get their enemies to agree to a ceasefire.

Ceasefire? Nah. Judging from their type, their ceasefire would be only a pretext to just "live to fight another day". Any puppet government would be doomed to have to fight an insurgency for the next 5-10 years.

You're thinking of laser guided bombs, not GPS guided ones. While laser guided bombs can work with a team on the ground doing the spotting, the target can be designated by a laser on the launch platform as well. They prefer to use ground based targeting when possible because it means the plane doesn't have to hang around until the bomb hits, you don't have to worry as much about cloud cover obscuring the target, and there's a better chance that the guys on the ground are going to paint the correct target. Advantages for sure, but not necessary, especially for a large chemical site.

They still need coordinates, since Global Positioning REQUIRES reference points (in Desert Storm a CIA agent walked into the US embassy, took the coordinates and used it as a reference for GPS weapons like the Tomahawk). Besides, GPS jamming devices are available in most Soviet bankrolled militaries.

True, but that was because the US was able to make allies with Afgan warlords opposed to the Taliban who provided the ground troops. The US just gave them very heavy air support and the SpecOps forces gave support. Once again, without that ready supply of Afgans willing to fight, that wouldn't have been possible.

That is actually to a more covert extent, usually for uprising in Taliban controlled strongholds where US has totally NO FOOTHOLD. I didn't consider the Special Activities Division to be part of the USSOCOM, which I actually meant for that overt and semi-covert MILITARY operations, not INTELLIGENCE operations, so sorry for the bad point that caused the misinterpretation on your part.

But what economy they do have is used to support their military. They're on pretty much a constant warfooting. This means they have no strategic depth to replace losses.

I am not sure, but given how Kimmy can buy Henessy Cognac by the pound, there has got to be some illegal trafficking underneath which we don't know. I suspect arms smuggling, black market tax (take money for illegal transaction of arms, drugs as authorised BY THE COUNTRY, etc), and probably a few others which I don't want to know.

What does India have to do with anything?

It is a military example of which number of soldiers surpass the technological capabilities. I am absolutely sorry, but I can't say more due to certain limitations over here.

Wait, are you claiming the US wouldn't bring as much firepower as they can to bare on targets because of possible environmental damage?

I wouldn't think they would since NK isn't a desert, it has pretty much of nature. There are a few big prominent talkers in US and around the world. Agent Orange and napalm aren't banned for nothing during and after Vietnam.

Something tells me the North Koreans won't be as keen to support their dear leader as you think when it comes down to war.

I will PM you my argument. It is something not to be spoken here for me.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Dumb bombs are not redesigned in the first place. They just added a few stuff to make them JDAMs. And the Katyusha rockets are of a much simpler design, so wouldn't it be easier to add frills?

Bombs aren't launched from a tube. Katyushas are, which complicates matters. At the very least you need things like folding fins. Also there's the issue of aerodynamics and weight, neither of which are as much of a problem with a gravity bomb since it's carried to the target area by a plane and then gravity does the rest. Add a heavy guidence package to the front and the rocket might simply slam into the ground just after launch. Add weight to the back to balance it out, and it might work well at launch, but what about halfway through the flight when the propellent is almost gone? Of course all that weight reduces the range. You could reduce the size of the warhead so it weighs the same as the original unguided model instead, but now it lacks the punch of the original. You could add a new, more powerful rocket to make up for the added weight of the guidence package and keep the range and payload, but now you basicly have a new weapon that's probably not going to be as effective as one designed from scratch for that role.


Sure it probably could be done, but that's missing the point of having cheap rockets you can fire in mass when you start to add guidence packages and making them not so cheap. This applies double for a nation like North Korea which is already diverting just about everything they have into their military. Sometimes you just want something cheap you can fire in mass. That's what katyushas are for. Even the US didn't modify all their old dumb bombs with a guidence package.

Ceasefire? Nah. Judging from their type, their ceasefire would be only a pretext to just "live to fight another day". Any puppet government would be doomed to have to fight an insurgency for the next 5-10 years.

I'm not sure about that. Once the people start getting actual food and their standard of living improves, an insurgency would lose support very quickly. It might be easy to think of the people in North Korea as brainwashed zombies who will support their dear leader to the death, but that's very unlikely to be true.

They still need coordinates, since Global Positioning REQUIRES reference points (in Desert Storm a CIA agent walked into the US embassy, took the coordinates and used it as a reference for GPS weapons like the Tomahawk). Besides, GPS jamming devices are available in most Soviet bankrolled militaries.

You don't have to be at the location to know the coordinates. We know where a lot of the sites are thanks to satellite recon. Once we know where a target is, we can hit it, eventually. As for GPS jamming, it's unlikely North Korea

That is actually to a more covert extent, usually for uprising in Taliban controlled strongholds where US has totally NO FOOTHOLD. I didn't consider the Special Activities Division to be part of the USSOCOM, which I actually meant for that overt and semi-covert MILITARY operations, not INTELLIGENCE operations, so sorry for the bad point that caused the misinterpretation on your part.

Oh there were obviously operations like that. Though things like that tend to remain classified for quite some time. However, even when they were opperating in taliban controlled areas, they still had support from the air they could call in if needed. It's not a case of special forces taking over a country unaided.

I am not sure, but given how Kimmy can buy Henessy Cognac by the pound, there has got to be some illegal trafficking underneath which we don't know. I suspect arms smuggling, black market tax (take money for illegal transaction of arms, drugs as authorised BY THE COUNTRY, etc), and probably a few others which I don't want to know.

That's North Korea's second biggest industry, the glorifaction and person comfort of their leader. Plus North Korea's illegal dealings aren't exactly unknown.

It is a military example of which number of soldiers surpass the technological capabilities. I am absolutely sorry, but I can't say more due to certain limitations over here.

India has quite a number of high tech toys though. For example, the most advanced SU-30 variant. I don't have much knowledge of India's army, I only really have a interest in airpower, but I'd bet they keep their equipment in much better shape than North Korea can.

I wouldn't think they would since NK isn't a desert, it has pretty much of nature. There are a few big prominent talkers in US and around the world. Agent Orange and napalm aren't banned for nothing during and after Vietnam.

Neither are banned for environmental reasons. Napalm is banned because of images of little Vietnamese girls covered in burns after their villiage was hit with it. Agent orange is banned because it can cause cancer and a lot of soldiers and civilians got sick from it. Environmental impact from them is a distant second at best. Neither are needed to bomb the hell out of a hill though. The environmental impact of a war tends to be something you start caring about after the war is over.

I will PM you my argument. It is something not to be spoken here for me.

Ok then.

[Shadow Kira01]

ELECTION 2009--BATTLE FOR POWER / Scant airing of abduction issue

It seems that resolving the abduction issue is a task of extreme difficulty as that North Korea is unwilling to cooperate while the United States don't seem to care much, not mentioning that South Korea is in the same boat. Nonetheless, the issue of the abduction should not be forgotten as that the abductees are most likely still alive and are figuring a method out of North Korea.

ELECTION 2009--BATTLE FOR POWER / How Japan should treat DPRK

It seems that the main reason why North Korea won't abandon its nuclear arsenal is to use it as a possible deterrent when they try to unify the two Koreas by military force as that the United States will not be able to rescue their allies due a nuclear threat. For that matter, the issue is actually very serious yet it won't be resolved easily.

[AnimeFan188]

North Korean comics, a key element of state control, are under attack by reality,
and losing badly. North Korea is having lots of problems with its propaganda
efforts. While few North Koreans (usually only trusted government officials) have
free access to the Internet, and a few more (along the Chinese border) can use
Chinese cell phones to communicate with the outside world, many more have
access to CD players that can display (mostly pirated) foreign movies on their TV
sets. These CDs are smuggled in from China, and many of them contain movies
and TV shows from South Korea. This stuff is immensely popular in North Korea,
where the standard TV and radio fare is relentless, and poorly executed,
propaganda.

But South Korean comics are getting in as well, some of them on CDs, in scanned
format. The South Korea comics, called manhwa, are heavily influenced by the
Japanese version, called manga. The South Korean manhwa originally came out of
China, more than Japan (which occupied Korea from 1905-45, and created an
intense hatred of all things Japanese in Korea). But in the last few decades, the
explosive growth, and influence, of manga, has influenced South Korean manhwa,
and the less creative North Korean comixs."

See:

http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/hti.../20101019.aspx

[LeoXiao]

North Korean manga? That might be interesting (and absolutely hilarious) to have a look at.

[TooPurePureBoy]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

North Korean manga? That might be interesting (and absolutely hilarious) to have a look at.

It's probably just old copies of dragonball with Kim-Jong's face pasted over goku's.

[AnimeFan188]

Originally Posted by TooPurePureBoy

It's probably just old copies of dragonball with Kim-Jong's face pasted over goku's.

Kim Jong Il, Pokemon Master:

[Jaden]

Easiest thing in the world, have the CIA or whatever stage a "North Korean nuclear launch" or "massive terrorist attack on Japan" then send in the rangers. Or maybe it would be a bad idea to use that move for a while?

Just kidding.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by AnimeFan188

Kim Jong Il, Pokemon Master:

Read the katakana! It's "Pikadong!"

[Kaijo]

At the moment, China is having real issues with North Korean refugees spilling over the border and into China. As long as NK continues to be the way it is, China will keep getting refugees that it doesn't want. So, in a sense, China wants a stable NK.

So the US and it's allies should do nothing. Ignore NK. Don't offer it anything, don't provoke it, don't attack it. Let it continue to be a failed state. Sooner or later, Kim is gonna die, and odds are there will be changes at that time. Or China will get so fed up with NK, that they will back any plan the US wants to do.

Nukes? Give me a break. Nukes are freakin' HARD to make. You have to construct them in just the right way, with just the right materials, which are also hard to make. You need a specific form of plutonium, refined a certain way. You need your explosives to trigger in just the right way to uniformly compress the ball of nuclear material so that it triggers the chain reaction. If you're off by one atom in your calculations and implementation, it ain't goin' off.

That's the simplest layman's version, but all it means is that NK will never have a working nuke. They simply don't have the resources nor brainpower. And no one would be willing to help them, because no one wants a nuclear North Korea. Right now, the only reason NK is used against the US+allies, is because the US+allies are showing interest in the region.

So, if we simply ignore it, no other countries will have reason to support it. And thus, China is left holding the sack with hundreds of thousands of starving refugees flooding it's country.

[justsomeguy]

I have to agree with Kaijo. People are seriously overestimating NK's capabilities, when it's nothing more than a state that has been run into the ground waving its fists and threatening other people for help. Any blatant actual attempt to start something would result in its end, and China will either make nominal complaints while doing nothing, or take over the place itself.

[mindovermatter]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

At the moment, China is having real issues with North Korean refugees spilling over the border and into China. As long as NK continues to be the way it is, China will keep getting refugees that it doesn't want. So, in a sense, China wants a stable NK.

So the US and it's allies should do nothing. Ignore NK. Don't offer it anything, don't provoke it, don't attack it. Let it continue to be a failed state. Sooner or later, Kim is gonna die, and odds are there will be changes at that time. Or China will get so fed up with NK, that they will back any plan the US wants to do.

Nukes? Give me a break. Nukes are freakin' HARD to make. You have to construct them in just the right way, with just the right materials, which are also hard to make. You need a specific form of plutonium, refined a certain way. You need your explosives to trigger in just the right way to uniformly compress the ball of nuclear material so that it triggers the chain reaction. If you're off by one atom in your calculations and implementation, it ain't goin' off.

That's the simplest layman's version, but all it means is that NK will never have a working nuke. They simply don't have the resources nor brainpower. And no one would be willing to help them, because no one wants a nuclear North Korea. Right now, the only reason NK is used against the US+allies, is because the US+allies are showing interest in the region.

So, if we simply ignore it, no other countries will have reason to support it. And thus, China is left holding the sack with hundreds of thousands of starving refugees flooding it's country.

a nuke is not *technically* hard to make...
at a certain critical mass, uranium^235 will explode. All you gotta do is refine less pure uranium^238 to get there. Refining it is basically like using a washing-machine sized centrifuge. Everything else is just details. That's why every dictator and his son wants to do it.