[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 6 Dawn of the golden witch

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Heatth

Well, she did just that. It was said in red wasn't it? You can either complain about bad writing or trust Ryuukishi and try to understand what he meant.

I did the last. The Games are not real worlds, they are fictional stories. Real world laws and logic do not work in the games, they are after all games.

It is my belief that trying to see the games as real world is wrong. In order to truly understand the games you need to accept that they are games.

In my opinion you are the one that make Ryuukishi look like a bad writer by thinking that he'd really try to do something that ridiculous.

If the games aren't supposed to be consistent, the internal bad writing is just the character's fault. It's not like ryuukishi made a mistake he made the Game master Battler make obvious inconsistencies to make it clear that the games aren't set in a real world and do not follow real logic.

But if the games are supposed to be realistic, then if the logic behind them just doesn't work, it's Ryuukishi's fault.


So my explanation to all the inconsistencies found in EP5 and EP6 are simply explainable as "narrative artifacts". Erika can do all those ridiculous things, because she's just a character in a badly conceived story.

[Exilon]

Well, my theory for the closed room... Pretty easy, actually. for starters, one should know I don't really believe on Shkanon (but as someone else stated, I probably have to conform to it), and that I believe Erika never really got to Rokkenjima. Her being there in the gameboard does not contradict the events of real Rokkenjima as the events are the same.
Also, I think Kanon is Beatrice. Feel free to tell me why I'm wrong (so far I didn't see anything said against this).

Kanon was never in the sealed rooms to start with. He was the one who placed the letter outside so as to lure someone to Battler's guest room. Obviously, they don't find Battler, but they end up finding Kanon in the closet. Kanon dies because he becomes Yoshiya or stops being a furniture that goes by the name of Kanon.

It's quite plausible that, since many people have died, some servants, for example Kanon which has this immense complex with himself, breaks free from being "furniture".

Of course, this can also be explained by Shkanon (and trice as well). Seriously, there has been so much around this, I have no idea how people are indeed suppose to conclude anything. If we're left with more than 1 theory, how are we supposed to realize which one is the right one? I certainly can find ways of making Kanon-Trice work on all other episodes, and it's been stated that we also don't really need to worry about the 'why-dunnit' yet.

[Heatth]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I did the last. The Games are not real worlds, they are fictional stories. Real world laws and logic do not work in the games, they are after all games.

It is my belief that trying to see the games as real world is wrong. In order to truly understand the games you need to accept that they are games.

In my opinion you are the one that make Ryuukishi look like a bad writer by thinking that he'd really try to do something that ridiculous.

If the games aren't supposed to be consistent, the internal bad writing is just the character's fault. It's not like ryuukishi made a mistake he made the Game master Battler make obvious inconsistencies to make it clear that the games aren't set in a real world and do not follow real logic.

But if the games are supposed to be realistic, then if the logic behind them just doesn't work, it's Ryuukishi's fault.


So my explanation to all the inconsistencies found in EP5 and EP6 are simply explainable as "narrative artifacts". Erika can do all those ridiculous things, because she's just a character in a badly conceived story.

I disagree, Jan-Poo.

I believe the games in the Game Board are both "real" and a game. I believe Real!Erika killed the five for her won reason and because Meta!Erika made her do so to win the game against Meta!Battler. Shannon/Kanon changed many times their personality so many times because it was the only option to avoid the red and because their own motives.

I do agree that, at first glance, the Episodes 5 an 6 seems a bit inconsistent and feel not "real". However, if you assume everything is a prank, an acting, then most of the reactions make sense. Figuring out the rest is difficult, but not impossible. Aside from Erika's murdering and the adults willing to play a prank, do you find a hole in my reasoning? It is not like I spend much time on it so the game make sense, most I figures as soon Meta!Battler revealed it was a prank and I figured Shannon and Kanon must be the same.

The main problem in admitting Ep5 and 6 are not "real" is that it would mean Ep1-4 aren't real either (with a sole exception, maybe). Admitting it would make the whole thing pointless. All the sympathy I get for the characters would be lost. And I don't want it. I consider that being bad writing.

Also, by the rules of the Meta World, I believe Battler can't make the characters act out of character without being trapped in a Logic Error. Remember what Dlanor said about Piece!Battler in Ep5? If I remember correctly, it was how Piece!Battler could only do what he did because it is what "Battler" would do. If I interpreted it correctly, the Game Master (and, I presume) his/her opponent can only make their piece act as the piece would act. They must stay in character. In that Ep5 example, just Battler would be able to spot the hole in Kinzo's 'closed room' study. Or, even more important, even if other person could see the hole, only Battler would go as far as jumping through the window to protect Natsuhi. If I interpreted correctly, although it was Lambda who 'made' Piece!Battler act that way, this just happened because 'Battler' would do the same. Similarly, although it was Meta!Erika who ordered the five to be killed, this is only person because Meta!Erika had a reason to kill then.

PP:
I have been saying "real" with "" because, of course, the Game Board is not real. It is just an story in a Japanese game. It might be obvious, but I wanted it to be clear.

PPP:

Originally Posted by Exilon

Well, my theory for the closed room... Pretty easy, actually. for starters, one should know I don't really believe on Shkanon (but as someone else stated, I probably have to conform to it), and that I believe Erika never really got to Rokkenjima. Her being there in the gameboard does not contradict the events of real Rokkenjima as the events are the same.
Also, I think Kanon is Beatrice. Feel free to tell me why I'm wrong (so far I didn't see anything said against this).

Kanon was never in the sealed rooms to start with. He was the one who placed the letter outside so as to lure someone to Battler's guest room. Obviously, they don't find Battler, but they end up finding Kanon in the closet. Kanon dies because he becomes Yoshiya or stops being a furniture that goes by the name of Kanon.

It's quite plausible that, since many people have died, some servants, for example Kanon which has this immense complex with himself, breaks free from being "furniture".

Of course, this can also be explained by Shkanon (and trice as well). Seriously, there has been so much around this, I have no idea how people are indeed suppose to conclude anything. If we're left with more than 1 theory, how are we supposed to realize which one is the right one? I certainly can find ways of making Kanon-Trice work on all other episodes, and it's been stated that we also don't really need to worry about the 'why-dunnit' yet.

Yeah, that theory make sense too. I like it, actually. The problem is explain what is Erika then. Or why they are pretending to be dead (well, it is not like 'playing a prank' is exactly believable).

The main problem it is Erika entered the Guest Room. That was said in Red. Unless you can explain it, Erika must exist. And if Erika exist, it is hard to both Kanon and Shannon exist as well (due to the people count cap).

[Jan-Poo]

@Exilon

Don't make the mistake to think that people believe in shkanontrice because they can't see any other way to explain the last riddle. They do because the whole love trial and the words spoken by Zepar and Furfur (which are confirmed to be part of the asnwer by Ryuukishi himself) are blatantly suggesting shkanontrice is true.

The fact that then shkanon happens to solve the last riddles, is just a confirmation, but that's really not the main point.


@Heatth

Your opinion, but no one so far was really able to give a credible explanation of EP5 and EP6, and at its extreme it just requires to think that 99,9% of what we have seen was a lie. Which would make EP5-6 totally pointless. Basically you'd have to recreate the story from scratch.
I don't believe that EP1-4 are pointless simply because the fact that the games are fictional stories doesn't mean that they cannot represent an accurate account of the reality. In my opinion Beatrice created consistent stories.

[winter 923]

I have a meta solution for that closed room. The game was already on hold so everything works instantious? at the same time? Kanon saves Battler and dies. He died in the second twilight which startet before the hold and ended in the hold. lame excuse but so is Erika going on rampage.
Anyway world 5-6 are crazy with these new Game Masters and with Bern as the new one i do not see much hope. I just hope it will keep some focus on the Gameboard instead of jumping from meta world to meta world to...

[Leafsnail]

Well, remember what Ronove said about Lambda's game? He said it "lacked love" and was the equivalent of throwing chess pieces at her opponent. This might mean that she wasn't making a great effort to keep the story consistant, and was just trying to be as mean as possible. That may mean the story does make less sense (Battler made a similar comment about the way Beatrice got him out of his closed room).

[Heatth]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Your opinion, but no one so far was really able to give a credible explanation of EP5 and EP6, and at its extreme it just requires to think that 99,9% of what we have seen was a lie. Which would make EP5-6 totally pointless. Basically you'd have to recreate the story from scratch.

My opinion, of course. I am sorry if I am being too pushy. However, I plan to continue that fight (discussion) until the end (we both reach a conclusion). So bear with me or tell me to stop when you get annoyed.

Anyway, why 99,9% must be a lie? What exactly you think to not match? I made a long post with everything I thought it was inconsistent at first and why I concluded it wasn't (mostly). Please tell me what you don't agree about that.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I don't believe that EP1-4 are pointless simply because the fact that the games are fictional stories doesn't mean that they cannot represent an accurate account of the reality. In my opinion Beatrice created consistent stories.

Ah, that. Well, if they are consistent they are also 'real'. Or better said, if they are 100% consistent, they are as good as real.

What make the 100% consistent fiction inferior to reality? The fact they are not real. Now, do you believe in multiple dimensions? Lets say 'yes' and lets say 'it is impossible for one dimension effect another. These dimensions are real and, yet, they do not matter at all for us, in our dimension. That mean, that, despite being real, they are irrelevant to us, they are as good as fiction (actually, worse, since we can't even see them).

Now, in Umineko world (or, better, in the When They Cry universe) there are multiple 'dimensions', the Fragments(Kakera). Although they can effect each other, it don't happen frequently, so, most of time, they are irrelevant, as good as fiction. Assuming what happen in the Game Board is fiction, it is still "real", because in the world of Umineko it exist infinite Fragments.

You could also see that way: Assuming the change of the events of the Game Board occur is not zero (which should be not if they are consistent), there is some Fragment, in the infinite Sea of Fragments in that these events occur. It is the Infinite Monkey Theorem Lambdadelta talked about.

Considering this, our opinion about EP1-4 are, more or less, the same. You say they are fiction, I say they are "real", but since you also say they are consistent, it mean they are also "real", even if they are fiction.

Now, about why Ep5-6 must be the same. Well, this was the whole point wasn't it? The reason Battler created the EP6 in the first place was to prove he had understood the truth. How could he have archived that goal if he made an inconsistent story? Wouldn't that prove the opposite? That he didn't understood Beato's games at all? Ep5 is similar, Lambda knows the truth, therefore she also should probably conform to the consistence. Well, my arguments about Ep5 are not as strong as the ones about Ep6, but, anyway, don't you agree, then that Ep6 should be as consistent as Ep1-4 as it was the whole point of the episode, by the Meta!World point of view?

[Kylon99]

Originally Posted by Heatth

What make the 100% consistent fiction inferior to reality? The fact they are not real. Now, do you believe in multiple dimensions? Lets say 'yes' and lets say 'it is impossible for one dimension effect another. These dimensions are real and, yet, they do not matter at all for us, in our dimension. That mean, that, despite being real, they are irrelevant to us, they are as good as fiction (actually, worse, since we can't even see them).

Now, in Umineko world (or, better, in the When They Cry universe) there are multiple 'dimensions', the Fragments(Kakera). Although they can effect each other, it don't happen frequently, so, most of time, they are irrelevant, as good as fiction. Assuming what happen in the Game Board is fiction, it is still "real", because in the world of Umineko it exist infinite Fragments.

I introduced my Author Theory around January of this year. I believe this is what Jan Poo is talking about regarding the fiction of each episode.

The Author Theory came from my initial attempt at trying to deny the Meta World as well but after Hachijou admitted to writing some of the episodes I (finally!) had the confidence to put forth my theory.

The Author Theory explains the message bottles, why Beatrice wants us to figure out the truth, why Hachijou can claim to have written episodes a bit better than the Kakera Theory. They also explain things like why George and Shannon's relationship develops over time and why Shannon's personality develops. It also explains why the Meta World reflects back into the Gameboard. It also finally explains how Moetrice, a Piece on the Gameboard went to the Meta World and then to Featherine's study which was supposed to be observing the Meta World at the same time. EDIT: Oh also, it explains why the episodes conform to Knox rules because 'reality' cannot.

Also, I developed a Historical Method theory as well to explain why you shouldn't say that because it's fiction that it's all useless. In short, this is because even if it's fiction you can take into account the fact that the author knew what was going on on Rokkenjima and has hidden clues in her episodes to point back at that truth. EDIT: Since the episodes conform to Knox and you know from the story that Beatrice wants Battler to find the truth, you can also conclude that the truth is available to you if you take EP1-4, even if they are fiction.


Anyways, here are my earlier posts: I should really do a formal write-up for this.


There's a lot of other theories that go with it but it's here:
http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...10#post2857510

That message kinda got submerged a bit until the discussion came up again:
http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...97#post2971597

And that went on for a page until Renall summed it up for me pretty well, and added some extra thoughts:
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=6980

[Jan-Poo]

@Heatth

You might have made some good points but not all of them are. let's say that the majority are "a little bit of a stretch", something that can pass even if unusual. Taking them each one singularly they might pass (yet not all of them). However if you put them together you get a story that is full of these "little bit of a stretch", the result ins't that great.

I didn't really try to answer all of your points because I think we will inevitably end to a disagreement of what is credible and what is not. So I'd rather just say my opinion in what I think it's totally not credible no matter what, which in this case is the explanation of Erika's murder.

I'll let you explain why a single point could led to a complete revision of the story. Just think about the point of Erika killing Kyrie because she thought she was the culprit and she didn't want to take the risk of letting her kill more people so she killed her.

As I pointed out, the Erika as we know her, would never do such a thing. It would be completely out of character because a real detective and especially a detective like Erika would only care about proving to everyone who is the culprit. She wouldn't care about other people dying.
In order to make this credible you'd have to think that Erika's real character is different, but since all the scenes with Erika we've seen show her as a totally cruel and heartless intellectual rapist, you'd have to think they are all fake and you'd have to rewrite them.

Anyway, just the fact that Erika severed the heads of the 5 victims should be by itself a proof that she couldn't have acted rationally or for a good (even if misguided) cause.


As for the other matter. I simply don't think that the manyworld interpretation works in Umineko. I think Ryuukishi by simply adding Bernkastel prepared a very dirty trap to make us take for granted that the manyworld interpretation works for Umineko.
But where that was actually stated without any doubt?
Beatrice never talked about choosing kakera. Battler never talks about choosing Kakera. The "Game Master Battler" TIPS doesn't mention anything of the sort either. In all cases the only thing that has been said is that the games are created. A process of creation has been carefully described. But a process of "selection" was never described, it's completely lacking.

The closest thing you have to claim that the manyworld interpretation works in Umineko is present is Bern's sea of kakera. However this is not something that Beatrice or a Game Master has clearly done. In addition, it's incredibly suspicious that the only thing that Bern could see where the past games Beatrice's made.
In other words, the "sea of kakera" in umineko is just a collection of stories.

If the games really are real, and if Bern has the power to travel to different real worlds. Why is she bound to Beatrice's games? Why can't she simply look for any kakera of Rokkenjima without having to deal with Beatrice's fake scenes and Beatrice's cuts?

That being said. I do believe that EP1-4 can be for the most part considered real, but not totally. Since I only believe in a single real world, the game Beatrice's made are close to what really happened but with some variation. Regardless of that, even the parts that were invented follow real world logic for the most part.


As for EP5-6 well maybe you can still imagine there's some kind of relevant info in EP5. For example I believe that the man from 19 years before was an important piece of the puzzle.
But don't forget what Ryuukishi said. At the point of EP4 all the elements needed to reach a solution have been shown already. There is no need for any additional game. So there's no problem with EP5 being that strange, it still gives us hints, but they are more like hints related to how the game works. If you remember Ronove did say something like that.

As for EP6. How can that really be relevant? It stops in the middle of the second twilight, and the only murderer is Erika, which she never had anything to do with beatrice's game. You can't really understand a thing about the real culprit.
Basically EP6 is all about the Metaworld, at this point the gameboard has already lost importance.

[winter 923]

consistent? where? the last 3 world had 3 differents Game Master
EP4 was 95% Magic "If someone says its magic. do not doubt or provoke him" While the adults in 1-3 never thought about magic
EP5 created Knox rules and a Detective that can order other Pieces around.
EP6 Battler totaly misses the Point, only wants Beato back and no one killed in his Gameboard
EP7 there are hints that Van Dine rules will get implimented and Bern is gona go crazy

what annoyes me the most in EP 6 is after the Dinner with Erika. These are all qoutes from the game even the text without quotes: "I don't read as much as you..." "Me? Haha, I don't read books." but Erika knew from the previous game that 'Battler' was actually quite an avid reader. AND "in other words, all things not covered by the red truth are left to the observer's interpretation." "What are you talking about...? Is that a quote from some novel...?"
So she is even stronger then rika in higurashi, not only knowing past worlds but also the meta world AND abusing it. She clearly didnt talk as Meta-Erika to Meta-Battler

give me back Beatrice as Gamemaster. or Shannon! she has enough love for 3 People clearly she could see it.
/edit changed umineko in higurashi, silly me

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Lol I've totally missed chronotrig's explanation for Erika's killing spree.
Sorry, but I've rarely seen something more ridiculous.

1) Erika is the detective, declaring who is the culprit is her greater joy. Killing the culprit just means you fail as a detective. There isn't such a thing as a detective that kills the prime suspect. Unless he really doesn't have any other choice.

Unfortunately, this point argues in my favor, as opposed to the other way around. We are very, very clearly shown that though Erika calls herself the detective, her motives are nearly the opposite of most detectives. While she may be the detective in name, no detective novel would have a detective like this. So it's more likely that she'll disobey the customs of normal detectives than the other way around.

Also, keep in mind that she is physically weak, and she doesn't know who to trust in this mansion. Plus, they're on an isolated island. Even if she does expose the truth to everyone else, there's no guarantee that the culprit won't attack anyone, even her. And if she tells only a few people, there's no guarantee that one of them won't be an accomplice.

Remember, in EP5, Erika took the six death pattern to mean a reference to the epitaph. So, she must have expected the murders to continue. Proving just one culprit guilty wouldn't necessarily make everyone safe.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

2) Suppose that everything we know about Erika's character is completely and totally false (at which point you might just erase everything and just look at the red text). I argue that the last thing 99.9% of the persons would do in such situation was to kill a suspect culprit that just pretends to be dead. You can't really invoke the legitimate defense if you kill a defenseless person, no matter if he's a killer.

Again, she's doing this in self-defense, since she believes that more murders are to follow. Better to kill the culprit than risk the loss of more innocent lives. At least to a kid, that sort of reasoning makes perfect sense.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

3) Erika's act had to be premeditated. In order for this to work she should have had already a knife (why she brought a knife with herself? If she really thought she was in danger, why she didn't ask the guys with the guns to escort her?) and more importantly she had to cover her whole body with plastic bags. There is absolutely no way she could have severed someone's head without being smeared with blood. Not to mention several heads! If she really had the time to do all that stuff then she'd better call for Hideyoshi and the other adults with the guns.

Then again, what if she suspected them as well? Remember up to six people might have been killed, so it was very possible that there were a large number of culprits. Add on the likelihood of a fake corpse being thrown into the mix, and the ones who discovered the corpses rise to the top of the suspicious list. Only by taking matters into her own hands could she be sure. Again, this sort of thinking makes perfect sense inside a book, and it's very obvious that Erika lived in that sort of dream world.

Of course, when six corpses are discovered together, it's very possible that a fake was mixed in (everyone reading Umineko figured this one out pretty soon). So it makes sense that she'd expect a fake corpse to be thrown in. Also, even if she does find someone faking, you don't expect any of the other survivors to believe that Erika killed them in self-defense, right? So she needed the sheets to prevent anyone from figuring out. The truth could all come out when the police finally came, but until then the priority was to stop the killers from killing anyone else.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

4) There was absolutely no need to sever the whole head. This is confirmed in red, this was the method of killing. Seriously what the hell Erika was thinking? That Kyrie was some kind of terminator? Yeah go explain to the judge how it was legitimate defense.

Actually, it was said in red that the heads were severed after the 5 people died. And even this makes sense from a childish mind. After all, these people had already played dead once. Erika probably hadn't ever performed an actual corpse examination before, so she wanted to be absolutely sure. Her desire to be absolutely sure of everything is already obvious because of those seals. There was no need to seal the guesthouse rooms and Battler's room unless she wanted to know for sure what everyone's movements were.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

5) Let's say that Erika is a total psycho, which at this point is the only credible thing you can say. Why she didn't kill Battler? She didn't have the time? That's quite a lame excuse. Erika's seal aren't thing that can be placed in a few seconds. They need to have her signature, and she also needs to make some cuts in them. If you rush in doing all of these delicate operations you may invalidate them.

Wait a second, you've forgotten. We're even shown the scene in the game. Erika made up those seals long before the murders were discovered. She even asked Kumasawa for them, meaning that this wasn't just a meta-scene. If she sealed the inside of the windows, all she needed to do was tear off a few strips of duct tape and slap them on. It could be done in less than a minute.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

7) Suppose that there is a reason for all that. Why the hell Erika sealed the cousin's room and the next room over? Exactly what she was going to gain from that? At that point she wasn't a detective anymore. She couldn't use the seals to prove her point in front of everyone, nor to the police. It simply had no purpose at all. She also was simply unable to prove the validity of the seals, because she had to break them first to let the people see them. basically it would be just her word.

I've already provided an explanation for this. She sealed those rooms to prove to herself that no one had left. If she came back after hiding the evidence and saw that the seals were intact, it would prove that no one had seen what she had done. If someone had left, then she would know that someone in that room was a possible threat.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

8) Am I supposed to believe that a girl with the body of a middle-schooler, was able to kill so easily 5 persons, without causing any ruckus? Imo you have seen too many action movies.

A girl who takes detective novels so seriously as to actually go around calling herself a detective (and for someone who's at least in middle school, it already sounds like she has problems), it's perfectly likely that she'd know some method of killing or knocking out that works quickly. Remember, the other people were playing dead for Erika's sake. Even if Erika walked right up to them, they wouldn't have budged or made a sound. From that position, there should be some kind of relatively quiet killing method X that a fan of murder mysteries might know about.

[Tibba]

The point of these Chiru games, in my opinion, is not to give us a new scenario of murder and mystery, but to give us a look at the true natures of some of the characters that might have been hidden previously. I'm gonna agree with Jan-Poo about Erika. She wouldn't kill someone she thought was the culprit to stop the culprit from killing more. She lives to expose the culprit. I don't think characters are allowed to act differently then they normally would across the games. So, because we saw Jessica being capable of murder in EP6, she was just as capable in EP1 - EP5. If you accept that as fact, then that really puts some serious heat on Kyrie, who was shown to be not only sinister, but intelligently aware of her surroundings.

But yeah, "How we act in front of people VS. Our true nature," seems to be a common theme throughout the series, and I think that EP6 really made a point of that. It let us look at the true natures of some of the characters and kind'a made the murder and mystery a side plot. In both EP5 and EP6, the murders aren't nearly as intelligent as the EP1 - EP4 murders are. Even the closed room of EP6 is tainted by the ridiculous meta-rules and retroactive actions. I think it was Erika who said that a mystery is only solved when you figure out the who, the how, and the why, something to that effect. EP1 - EP4 was mostly about the who and the proposing the how, and EP5 - EP6 is mostly about answering the how and addressing the why.

Also, I remember reading it that Erika killed the victims by various methods, and then beheaded them postmortem. If that's true, then she could've slipped them poison while they were pretending to be dead. Not wanting to alert Erika to the trick, they ingested it unaware of what they were taking in, and died while she ran to the next person. There's still the process of beheading and the factor of time which is questionable, but at least with this method, its a little more realistic.

[Heatth]

Originally Posted by Kylon99

I introduced my Author Theory around January of this year. I believe this is what Jan Poo is talking about regarding the fiction of each episode.

The Author Theory came from my initial attempt at trying to deny the Meta World as well but after Hachijou admitted to writing some of the episodes I (finally!) had the confidence to put forth my theory.

The Author Theory explains the message bottles, why Beatrice wants us to figure out the truth, why Hachijou can claim to have written episodes a bit better than the Kakera Theory. They also explain things like why George and Shannon's relationship develops over time and why Shannon's personality develops. It also explains why the Meta World reflects back into the Gameboard. It also finally explains how Moetrice, a Piece on the Gameboard went to the Meta World and then to Featherine's study which was supposed to be observing the Meta World at the same time. EDIT: Oh also, it explains why the episodes conform to Knox rules because 'reality' cannot.

Also, I developed a Historical Method theory as well to explain why you shouldn't say that because it's fiction that it's all useless. In short, this is because even if it's fiction you can take into account the fact that the author knew what was going on on Rokkenjima and has hidden clues in her episodes to point back at that truth. EDIT: Since the episodes conform to Knox and you know from the story that Beatrice wants Battler to find the truth, you can also conclude that the truth is available to you if you take EP1-4, even if they are fiction.


Anyways, here are my earlier posts: I should really do a formal write-up for this.


There's a lot of other theories that go with it but it's here:
http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=5167

That message kinda got submerged a bit until the discussion came up again:
http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...97#post2971597

And that went on for a page until Renall summed it up for me pretty well, and added some extra thoughts:
http://forums.animesuki.com/showthre...39#post2971739

I can't open your links, a shame.

Anyway, I never read any 'Kakera Theory' but I suppose I can infer it content by the name right? What I was saying, is that the 'Kakera Theory' and your 'Author Theory' are not mutually exclusive.

So, Hachijou told she wrote some of the games. So what? Does this proves the Kakera theory is false? No. Assuming the number of Fragments are infinite, then one Fragment that just happen to be similar/exactly the same as the tale might exist. It is the same as the Infinite Monkey Theorem. That assuming the tale is 100% consistent, of course.

Anyway, my argument was not that 'if it is fiction then it is pointless because it don't help me to find the truth'. As I said, being fiction or not do not make any difference by my theory. What I said is that I feel it was pointless because I find harder to empathize with character I don't perceive as "real". If I perceive everyone from Ep1-4 as no better the dolls I won't be able to care about them. If so, half of the point of the game is lost for me. I don't want I game which the sole point is solve a mystery. I want a tale who touch me and a puzzle. That is what Umineko is for me. Both a puzzle game and a simple fiction tale.

Anyway, I don't really disagree with you points.

PP:
About the Knox rules. I am not entirely convinced it follow all of then literally. The one about secret passages, for example. It is highly likely there is at last one leading to Kuwadorian. I don't believe it really violate the 'spirit' of the Knox rules, as there have been plenty hints for the existence of these passage. Knox is all about hints and foreshadowing, after all. I know the rules was said in red, but that is just the rules itself, not the conclusion. That is it, "Knox's 3rd. It is forbidden for hidden passages to exist." do not really mean 'hidden passages do not exist'. I won't deny it, at last, follow most of them.

For why the "real" would follow Knox. Well, I already agreed that, although it is "real", it is also "fiction". It is not impossible to a real story just happen to follow Knox. If you believe Beatrice just creates the stories from her mind (while following the rules of consistency), they she created a tale following (most of) Knox Rules. That tale happen to exist in a "real" world. IF you say Beatrice only reproduces (and embellish with 'magic') then she just choose a "real world story" that follow Knox. Either way, it is certainly not chance the games follow Knox.
/PP:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

@Heatth
You might have made some good points but not all of them are. let's say that the majority are "a little bit of a stretch", something that can pass even if unusual. Taking them each one singularly they might pass (yet not all of them). However if you put them together you get a story that is full of these "little bit of a stretch", the result ins't that great.

I see were you a getting at. Well, I can only say I disagree, I suppose. There is no much more I can say. Just remember that I am not proposing everything was planed. It is not like I am saying, for example, Battler was planing stay in the room and scape by luck in the last instant thanks to an elaborated trap. I am saying that he just adapt to Erika's actions and prayed to it work. It is not like, in his mind (since he didn't know about the murders) something important would happen if she spotted him. The game would be over but that is it, not a big deal (for him). Getting the the chance to scape and change places with Kanon was a very improbably luck, indeed. A "little bit of a stretch". Even with the others "little bit of a stretch"s, it don't make the tale 'impossible' or 'unreal'. Just 'improbable'. 'Improbable' things does happen, and they don't make bad story. After all, the most 'likely' things it can happen in a real life wouldn't make a 'good story'.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I didn't really try to answer all of your points because I think we will inevitably end to a disagreement of what is credible and what is not. So I'd rather just say my opinion in what I think it's totally not credible no matter what, which in this case is the explanation of Erika's murder.

Fair enough. I won't even try to defend Erika's murders. Not because you say you won't believe no matter what. But because I, myself, don't have a good enough answer. I used chronotrig 'truth' because I couldn't find a better 'truth' myself. If someone is going to defend this 'truth' it have to be it author (how he have done above).

I have to say, however, that while I am not entirely convinced I don't think it is impossible either. After all, before this episode I would argue to the end Shkannon should not be real, because it open too much inconsistencies. Now I can't see other option then Shkannon, and I am rereading the episodes so I can think in a way it make sense.

I'll let you explain why a single point could led to a complete revision of the story. Just think about the point of Erika killing Kyrie because she thought she was the culprit and she didn't want to take the risk of letting her kill more people so she killed her.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

As for the other matter. I simply don't think that the manyworld interpretation works in Umineko. I think Ryuukishi by simply adding Bernkastel prepared a very dirty trap to make us take for granted that the manyworld interpretation works for Umineko.
But where that was actually stated without any doubt?
Beatrice never talked about choosing kakera. Battler never talks about choosing Kakera. The "Game Master Battler" TIPS doesn't mention anything of the sort either. In all cases the only thing that has been said is that the games are created. A process of creation has been carefully described. But a process of "selection" was never described, it's completely lacking.

It don't matter. Your points are pretty good, I admit. However, this is completely meaningless for my theory.

Lets make something clear: I don't care if Beatrice is just telling a tale that already happened or if she is inventing everything from her head. What I am proposing is that, regardless of Beatrice knowledge, the worlds of Ep1-4 are "real". It don't matter if it change anything or not either.

I am using the Infinite Monkey Theorem for that theory. If the number of worlds, Fragments, are infinite, then all the possibilities exist. If there is a chance, even if small, of Ep1 to happen, then it has happened. The only way to deny it is to deny the Sea of Fragments and the multiple world. I can't see a way to do so if you believe in the Meta World. In the tips of Ep4 it say about the kinds of Witches and about the Voyagers. There is is kind explicit about the existence of the Kakera. The only way to deny the multiple worlds is assume the word 'Kakera'(Fragment) has a different meaning of the one in Higurashi. For all it has already said in the past few Episodes, I don't see any reason for reaching that conclusion.

Anyway, I am going to repeat: If Beatrice is choosing Fragments, creating Fragments, making illusions of Fragments it don't matter. If said illusion is plausible, then the Fragments exist, being Beatrice aware of it or not. In other worlds, it don't matter if he Fragment did exist before Beatrice's game. Had her wrote a tale that originated some Fragment, or had this Fragment the reason she wrote the tale, the results are still 'Beatrice wrote a tale and a Fragment identical of it exist'.

For why Bern can't see those Fragments except the ones Beatrice presented to her. No idea. Maybe she can't, since it is Beatrice territory. Everything that happen in Rokkenjima is Beatrice's, no matte where. I believe Beatrice only exist in a simple Fragment (she is not a Voyager, after all). But, she can see what happen in the other Fragments. Not because of 'magic', but because, since she knows the truth, she can imagine every possibility of these 3 days in Rokkenjima. She may be able to deny Bern these possibilities as well. (but not Lambda, I suppose, since she also can guess what happen in these Fragments).

That or this would spoil the game. Bern just wants to kill time, after all. Knowing the mystery would ruing the whole thing.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

That being said. I do believe that EP1-4 can be for the most part considered real, but not totally. Since I only believe in a single real world, the game Beatrice's made are close to what really happened but with some variation. Regardless of that, even the parts that were invented follow real world logic for the most part.

Yeah, I don't disagree. But, knowing I am being repetitive, I say that, since it follow some logic, it 'happened'. Somewhere.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

As for EP6. How can that really be relevant? It stops in the middle of the second twilight, and the only murderer is Erika, which she never had anything to do with beatrice's game. You can't really understand a thing about the real culprit.
Basically EP6 is all about the Metaworld, at this point the gameboard has already lost importance.

Now, here I is where I completely disagree of you. Even if the murder here is Erika, it don't mean we can't discover things about the true culprit. Even if you couldn't discover things about the true culprit, it don't mean you couldn't discover hints to get there (even if it is only a hint to a hint).

To be more precise, the importance of Ep6 is 'Shkannontrice'. It is hard to not believe Shannon have been playing 'Beatrice' for some time after Ep6. We know now that 'Beatrice' was made to be loved Battler Seeing the flashback about Battler 'ideal woman', we know it can't be Kanon (since he wasn't there at time). It can't be Jessica either, since Battler said something like "I would like someone similar Jessica". It is improbably Battler was saying it to Jessica herself. Now, unless you believe this was an adult or George, Shannon is the only option left.

We know Battle sin is the cause of the deaths. We know that sin is related to Beatrice and, we can infer, Shannon. Therefore, Shannon (and, be extension, Kanon) is related to the deaths. Of course, they might not be the true culprits (I on't think it is even possible for then to carry all murders in all games). But we know thy are related. Of course, the hints for all this conclusions exist since a long time. The Shkannon theory and the Shannontrice theory existed since before Ep5. For whose already reached that conclusion, Ep6 may do not have any use. For the others, however, it is almost the answer.

[Renall]

For that matter, Jan-Poo, why can Bern only select kakera in which the family actually goes to Rokkenjima? I mean, surely in a many-worlds universe, there would be scenarios in which the family doesn't all get to the island. Rosa's train is delayed, the plane has mechanical problems, Captain Kawabata eats some bad shellfish and they have to stay over in Nijima the night of the 4th, thus getting cut off from the island for the rest of the weekend...

If any reality is possible, we either have to argue that the Ushiromiya Family Conference of 1986 is an immutable fact of the multiverse, or we have to conclude that the only "fragments" that matter are the ones in which that event occurs. Since that really makes no sense unless the only existing fragments are the ones "important" to Beatrice, even if we believe that it's not fiction, Beatrice has limited the possible pool of worlds to ones which would conform to the fictional realities of the message bottles.

In that respect, it largely doesn't matter whether the worlds are "really possible" or fiction, as the full set of "possible" existences is assuredly locked out. If it weren't, you could come up with a story in which Ushiromiya Kinzo was never born and his family never existed. But that story would be useless to Beatrice. In theory, it should be accessible to Bern. But it apparently isn't... or at least she never suggested that that particular "story" exists in her sea.

[Heatth]

Err, either you or I didn't get what Jan-Poo was saying. Unless you are agreeing with him and I didn't get it?

Your arguments are more or less the same as his: It is weird Bern can only see a limited set of Fragments if, supposedly, she should see then all.

If I guessed correctly, Jan used it as an argument for the multiple Rokkenjima we see being mostly fake, don't existing even as Fragments.

Anyway, I proposed as solution Beatrice 'locking' the other Kakera from Bern (since she is the master of that 'territory') or Bern don't doing so because she don't want to. It would spoil the game, make it predictable and boring.

[Renall]

Yes, I am agreeing with him. And I'm not sure anyone could prevent Bernkastel from viewing kakera/fragments if she wanted to, unless within Umineko's fictional universe she simply cannot. Certainly the Bernkastel of Higurashi wouldn't have that restriction, especially by a witch of "lesser" power like Beatrice.

[Leafsnail]

I thought she could just view one at a time, and keep trying until she got the one she wanted. So yeah, she could see a bunch of ones without the incident, but that would be boring, riiight?

[Jan-Poo]

Yeah Renall Heatth already answered. What I meant was precisely that Bern can only see games that were already created and no game was created with such premises. Most probably the rules of the game forbid them.

Since Bern talks about other kakera, I can only guess that she could also travel among the other many "forgeries" that are mentioned in EP6.
Supposedly some of these forgeries proposed various interpretation of the epitaph and one of them happened to be correct or very close to it.

If my interpretation is correct, Bern has the power to travel through any kind of fictional creation. And she herself is the product of one of those fictions.
Although... the fact that she's sometimes referred as a human... makes me wonder....

[Heatth]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

I thought she could just view one at a time, and keep trying until she got the one she wanted. So yeah, she could see a bunch of ones without the incident, but that would be boring, riiight?

Ah, there is that too. Even in Higurashi she can't choose the Fragment she wants right? She must keep trying. Maybe what Beatrice do is just allow Bern to see the fragments she already witnessed without having to try a thousand of times.

PP:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Yeah Renall Heatth already answered. What I meant was precisely that Bern can only see games that were already created and no game was created with such premises. Most probably the rules of the game forbid them.

Since Bern talks about other kakera, I can only guess that she could also travel among the other many "forgeries" that are mentioned in EP6.
Supposedly some of these forgeries proposed various interpretation of the epitaph and one of them happened to be correct or very close to it.

If my interpretation is correct, Bern has the power to travel through any kind of fictional creation. And she herself is the product of one of those fictions.
Although... the fact that she's sometimes referred as a human... makes me wonder....

Ok, now I am not getting you. So you do agree with me the fiction is "real" at last inside it Kakera?

[Renall]

If you lived in a fictional world, how would you know?