[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[Marion]

Kasumi was a half-blooded sister to Kyrie I suppose (Kyrie's father latter remarried a different wife, probably the Sumadera family treated the run-away-Beatrice as dead and quickly arranged another political marriage). That's why only Kyrie had a so westernized name but not Kasumi.

In a family like the Sumaderas if this was true then Kyrie wouldn't even be considered a candidate for the head, because she wasn't born from the current head (her mother).

[Knicknevin]

I was thinking about that PIN number and the cases of money, and I think I figured them out. That led me to who I think may be the culprit in Episode 3. And to take a page from Higurashi, I think I've figured out the 'rules' that are in play for this game. I'll start with the PIN number. Coincidentally, this also covers the first 'rule':

The money in those cases are Kinzo's inheritance.

Realistically speaking, there were somewhere in the area of 20 cases, and we can only assume they all had the same amount of money in them. Even if they were in good financial shape, I doubt that any of Kinzo's children could afford to blow 4 billion yen in a crazy plan to take or buy control of the family. Only Kinzo had the means to put that amount of money in a safety deposit box and let it sit for years.

So why put all that money there? It's the carrot. And the epitaph is the stick.

Lets back up a bit. Kinzo's fortune is huge and his ability to predict future trends is well known. People say he could see decades into the future. Now consider this- do you really think Kinzo didn't predict what would happen after he died? Krauss was already up to his eyeballs in debt when Kinzo died. The rest of his children were probably already in the process of getting themselves into their own situations, even if they were still a ways off. For someone like Kinzo, it would probably be no problem to deduce that Krauss would hide his death, and that within a few years the rest of his children would be near ruin as well.

He devises a test for his family, and then attaches appropriate rewards and punishments for it- The portrait is made, and the epitaph is hung. Cases of money are prepared. And a trap is built, to ensure that if noone can pass his test, that the Ushiromiya family is brought to an end instead of the headship passing to an unworthy heir. As for the trap, it might be a large bomb, demolition charges set to collapse the entire mansion area, or maybe there is a pocket of trapped volcanic gasses with a mechanism to release them (this would be pretty ironic... but it would also fit with what happens to Rosa and Maria in Episode 2).

He calls Beatrice to him, and leaves her with a last will to carry out after his death: When the time is right, Beatrice will mail out the keys to the safety deposit boxes using the gimmick shown in Episode 4. She will then arm the trap, and deliver a letter to the family telling them that this is their last chance to solve the epitaph.

If they solve it- great. The headship is passed on by Beatrice and the gold is given to this new head. As for everyone else- the keys to their own 'Golden Land' will be arriving at their houses shortly... cases containing 200 million yen apiece- one for every family member and servant. This lets his children settle their problems, his servants retire, and his grandchildren a head start on whatever they want to do with their lives.

If they fail- boom. Or Whoosh. Or whatever.

Rule 1: The epitaph, money cases, and the day 2 disaster are all part of Kinzo's plan to test if anyone of the Ushirimiya family is worthy to carry on his legacy, or if they should just be buried. Beatrice is the executor of his will.

I should point out though that even Kinzo couldn't have predicted the storm. The exact details were left to Beatrice, and she had her own spin to put on things... but that's the second rule.

I'll go through Episode 3 next since it's on my mind... later. Now, sleep.

Originally Posted by DarknessLord

So is it okay to ship KinzoXBomb now?

Wouldn't it be BattlerXBomb now?

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Marion

In a family like the Sumaderas if this was true then Kyrie wouldn't even be considered a candidate for the head, because she wasn't born from the current head (her mother).

The head was just a figurehead, just like Kinzo was chosen to be the head of Ushiromiya because he did not belong to any faction, Kyrie was chosen to be the family head initially because she belonged to a powerless faction (as his father was said to be powerless and her biological mother just ran away, so she was living under the mercy of Sumadera family). Just like Kinzo, it was her ability that Kyrie proved that she was extraordinary as a family head.

Kyrie's departure caused Kasumi to bear the name of family head, but you realized that Kasumi was just under the order of her mom (in my theory a different person and not Kyrie's mother)

In case anyone still does not understand what I say:

Kyrie's father + initial wife, 1952 Beatrice (who ran away to Kinzo) --> Kyrie + Rudolf --> Battler & Ange

Kyrie's father + latter wife, Kasumi's mother --> Kasumi

[Marion]

Originally Posted by ijriims

The head was just a figurehead, just like Kinzo was chosen to be the head of Ushiromiya because he did not belong to any faction, Kyrie was chosen to be the family head initially because she belonged to a powerless faction (as his father was said to be powerless and her biological mother just ran away, so she was living under the mercy of Sumadera family). Just like Kinzo, it was her ability that Kyrie proved that she was extraordinary as a family head.

Kinzo was picked because the Kanto Earthquake killed all the main members of the family and he was the only survivor from the branch family. He was part of the Ushiromiya family, just not the main family (example: main family is considered Krauss's family and all the other three are branch families). It has nothing to do with different parentage or not being related to the family by blood.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

I was thinking about that PIN number and the cases of money, and I think I figured them out. That led me to who I think may be the culprit in Episode 3. And to take a page from Higurashi, I think I've figured out the 'rules' that are in play for this game. I'll start with the PIN number. Coincidentally, this also covers the first 'rule':

The money in those cases are Kinzo's inheritance.

Spoiler for save space:

Realistically speaking, there were somewhere in the area of 20 cases, and we can only assume they all had the same amount of money in them. Even if they were in good financial shape, I doubt that any of Kinzo's children could afford to blow 4 billion yen in a crazy plan to take or buy control of the family. Only Kinzo had the means to put that amount of money in a safety deposit box and let it sit for years.

So why put all that money there? It's the carrot. And the epitaph is the stick.

Lets back up a bit. Kinzo's fortune is huge and his ability to predict future trends is well known. People say he could see decades into the future. Now consider this- do you really think Kinzo didn't predict what would happen after he died? Krauss was already up to his eyeballs in debt when Kinzo died. The rest of his children were probably already in the process of getting themselves into their own situations, even if they were still a ways off. For someone like Kinzo, it would probably be no problem to deduce that Krauss would hide his death, and that within a few years the rest of his children would be near ruin as well.

He devises a test for his family, and then attaches appropriate rewards and punishments for it- The portrait is made, and the epitaph is hung. Cases of money are prepared. And a trap is built, to ensure that if noone can pass his test, that the Ushiromiya family is brought to an end instead of the headship passing to an unworthy heir. As for the trap, it might be a large bomb, demolition charges set to collapse the entire mansion area, or maybe there is a pocket of trapped volcanic gasses with a mechanism to release them (this would be pretty ironic... but it would also fit with what happens to Rosa and Maria in Episode 2).

He calls Beatrice to him, and leaves her with a last will to carry out after his death: When the time is right, Beatrice will mail out the keys to the safety deposit boxes using the gimmick shown in Episode 4. She will then arm the trap, and deliver a letter to the family telling them that this is their last chance to solve the epitaph.

If they solve it- great. The headship is passed on by Beatrice and the gold is given to this new head. As for everyone else- the keys to their own 'Golden Land' will be arriving at their houses shortly... cases containing 200 million yen apiece- one for every family member and servant. This lets his children settle their problems, his servants retire, and his grandchildren a head start on whatever they want to do with their lives.

If they fail- boom. Or Whoosh. Or whatever.

Rule 1: The epitaph, money cases, and the day 2 disaster are all part of Kinzo's plan to test if anyone of the Ushirimiya family is worthy to carry on his legacy, or if they should just be buried. Beatrice is the executor of his will.

I should point out though that even Kinzo couldn't have predicted the storm. The exact details were left to Beatrice, and she had her own spin to put on things... but that's the second rule.

I'll go through Episode 3 next since it's on my mind... later. Now, sleep.

I think you're on the right track. But allow me to challenge your proposal here and there.

For one thing, how does it tie into the red truth that Battler's sin caused the murders to be able to take place? We can review the exact wording.
Ushiromiya Battler has a sin.
Because of your sin, people die.
Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.
(And yet, Eva escapes. Hmm.)

Then let's assume that the sin was against the person who eventually became "Beatrice". Does she offer her own degree of variability? And to what extent?

If we assume Shannon is "Beatrice", and she kills the servants and herself after realizing that Battler doesn't remember something from six years ago, was she trying to bring an end to the Epitaph single-handedly? Or was she trying to hand off the task to someone else? Such as Nanjo?

Since Kinzo doesn't trust his own family, we can guess that he trusts the following people the most (not necessarily in the correct order):
1) Nanjo
2) Shannon
3) Kanon
4) Genji

My guess is that they were all likely candidates to receive the PIN code. If we assume that Nanjo also knows what his will is, he probably explained it to George and gave him the PIN, shortly before George climbed out Nanjo's window to run to the mansion. Maybe George explained that Eva discovered the gold. Hmm.

In any case, I'm about halfway through my analysis. I have lots of notes, but for the sake of organized thought, I will present it all at once.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Marion

Kinzo was picked because the Kanto Earthquake killed all the main members of the family and he was the only survivor from the branch family. He was part of the Ushiromiya family, just not the main family (example: main family is considered Krauss's family and all the other three are branch families). It has nothing to do with different parentage or not being related to the family by blood.

When could you find Kyrie was not linked to Sumadera family by blood? As long as his paternal bloodline was Sumadera's, there was no problem at all. And she belonged to main family as well.

And there was no rigid rules governing choosing the next family head in Umineko or in the real world. I just don't see any strong or apparent reason that just because Kyrie's mother ran away from Sumadera family so they would not choose her as the next head of family despite her brilliance and intelligence shown throughout the games.


By the way, if you try to discredit my theory, give another account why a traditional family like Sumadera would name one of their children as Kyrie (well, Kasumi was not named Katherine...). Of course they were not Kinzo...

You can insist it was just a coincidence (a red herring), or Kyrie changed her name after entering Ushiromiya family though.

But consider Ryukishi07 particularly made all the Ushiromiya family bearing with westernized names, Kyrie was just quite strange, especially it was revealed that Kyrie's family was a very traditional one, wasn't it?

"Rokkenjima syndrome", "Tengu special force", "hallucinatory dust from butterfly", "village being family tree", "Battler as culprit",etc, had been mocked and foreshadowed by Ryukishi07 already. I found it strange that Kyrie having such a outstanding westernized name had not been discussed in the game if it was wrong...

[Knicknevin]

Originally Posted by TeeHee

I think you're on the right track. But allow me to challenge your proposal here and there.

For one thing, how does it tie into the red truth that Battler's sin caused the murders to be able to take place? We can review the exact wording.
Ushiromiya Battler has a sin.
Because of your sin, people die.
Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die.
No one escapes, all die.
(And yet, Eva escapes. Hmm.)

Then let's assume that the sin was against the person who eventually became "Beatrice". Does she offer her own degree of variability? And to what extent?

Spoiler for space saver:

If we assume Shannon is "Beatrice", and she kills the servants and herself after realizing that Battler doesn't remember something from six years ago, was she trying to bring an end to the Epitaph single-handedly? Or was she trying to hand off the task to someone else? Such as Nanjo?

Since Kinzo doesn't trust his own family, we can guess that he trusts the following people the most (not necessarily in the correct order):
1) Nanjo
2) Shannon
3) Kanon
4) Genji

My guess is that they were all likely candidates to receive the PIN code. If we assume that Nanjo also knows what his will is, he probably explained it to George and gave him the PIN, shortly before George climbed out Nanjo's window to run to the mansion. Maybe George explained that Eva discovered the gold. Hmm.

In any case, I'm about halfway through my analysis. I have lots of notes, but for the sake of organized thought, I will present it all at once.

I'll go over this in part when I talk about the second 'rule' I thought of, which governs Beatrice's motives, the epitaph murders, magic circles and letters, and any accomplices. For now though, let me put out the theory regarding Episode 3 that I came up with after devising this rule. Bear in mind that for the time being, I am assuming that Shannon is Beatrice, so that will of course guide my train of thought...

Brace yourself. It's a big one.

Spoiler for The first twilight:

Now, I've already gone over the conversation the cousins and Shannon had on the beach, where Shannon talks about how Battler acted 6 years ago and Battler gets embarrassed and denies it all. Judging from her behavior in other episodes, it's possible that she simply lost the will to live. She then plans out the first twilight, choosing herself as one of the sacrifices. It's also possible she intended to fake her death...

To help her with the groundwork for the first twilight, she enlists Nanjo to help move Kinzo's body and perhaps help her with killing the other servants and eventually herself. Now, I'm not certain if Nanjo was aware of this plan from the beginning, but Shannon was probably able to buy his help by telling him about the money that was being given to each of the people on the island. Shannon calls each of the servants to the various rooms, Nanjo shoots them, Shannon draws the circles, and then they toss Kinzo into the boiler and place the letter. Then the two of them enter the final room after constructing the closed room loop and Nanjo shoots Shannon. This may have been a betrayal on his part, but it's not certain. Nanjo takes her key, locks up, and pockets it for the time being. The next morning, he 'finds' the key in her pocket.

Another possibility is that the final room in the loop was actually the boiler room. If you recall from Episode 1, it was stated that the boiler room opened up into the courtyard. And that since the courtyard was completely enclosed by the mansion, there wasn't any point to put locks on the doors there... In that case, the killer doesn't even need to keep a key. That line about the locks might have only referred to the surface entrances to the mansion however, it wasn't made clear if the boiler room door to the courtyard had a lock or not.

So later that morning, the family discovers the crime, and if need be, Nanjo slips the key back into Shannon's pocket as he examines her. The siblings take Kinzo's gun collection for protection, and make their way to the guest house to hole up until the police come. A few hours later, Eva and Rosa solve the epitaph. Eva solved it first, so Rosa agrees to hand over the rights to the gold as long as she gets her fair share. Eva decides to keep the matter of finding the gold between them until she can plan out how and when to announce it. The two of them return to the guest house.

Spoiler for The second twilight:

Some time later, Rosa and Maria sneak out to look at the roses. Eva sees them go, and tells Hideyoshi to cover for her while she goes to talk to them. She had probably told Hideyoshi about the gold already, and that she's not telling the rest of the family yet, so he probably feels a bit of stress and smokes a cigarette while he waits. Eva meets with Rosa, and the two discuss their plans a bit more. Maybe some kind of agreement is reached. Eva leaves.

Then, the 'killer', who saw Eva leave and followed her out, moves in and kills Rosa and Maria. It was someone they knew, so Rosa let her guard down and didn't even get to fire a shot. So who was it? At the time this took place, Hideyoshi was in his and Eva's room, smoking a cigarette (we have this in red). The cousins were all together in their own room (aside from Maria of course). And Krauss, Natsuhi, Rudolph and Kyrie were all in the lounge. If we assume that Eva didn't kill them, the only other person we don't have a concrete place for is Nanjo, who was supposedly in his room alone, reading.

Nanjo's greed, or maybe his desperation to get the money needed to treat his sick grandchild, drove him. He saw Eva leaving and followed her out, perhaps intending to kill her. But Eva's guard was up, and Rosa was distracted with Maria... He walks up nonchalantly, greets them, and while Rosa's guard is down he knocks her gun away and shoves her onto the fence spike. Then he chokes Maria to death before she can try and escape. Then he goes back to the guest house and into his room before the alarm is raised.

Now, it might seem unbelievable that he could get in and out this many time without anyone noticing, but really- Eva and Rosa both got out twice without anyone other than them noticing. George got out without anyone besides the killer noticing. Krauss and Natsuhi got out without Eva noticing. For supposedly being on guard, I'm pretty sure the people holding down the fort were pretty much half asleep the entire time. One more person slipping in and out a few times doesn't really bring up any problems to me.

Spoiler for The fourth through sixth twilights:

So Rosa and Maria are found, and everyone is on guard again. Kyrie found the cigarette butt in Eva and Hideyoshi's room, so she suspects Eva was the one to sneak out and kill them. She tells Rudolph about this, and the two of them come up with the idea of making a supply run to the mansion with Hideyoshi and questioning him there. The three of them head to the mansion. Nanjo follows a little while later.

Now, Nanjo doesn't have a gun. So I don't think he made the first move in this case. Probably, when Rudolph and Kyrie confronted Hideyoshi about the crime, he couldn't come up with any valid arguments. Tensions rose, and they started shooting. Since he was the one cornered, I'd guess Hideyoshi shot Rudolph first, then Kyrie. Nanjo sees his chance, grabs Rudolph's gun while Hideyoshi is leaving, and shoots him. Hideyoshi goes down, seriously wounded, and loses consciousness. It's also possible that Rudolph or Kyrie shot Hideyoshi before they were killed and Nanjo just followed things up. Nanjo has an inspiration at this point- he'll continue with the epitaph murders to throw the others off his trail. Presumably he knew where Shannon was keeping the stakes, or maybe Kinzo's study was left open. He quickly stakes the victims and rushes back to the guest house again.

Again, the crime is discovered. During his examination of the bodies, Nanjo must have noticed that one of the victims was actually still alive... He kept his mouth shut however, since he couldn't take the chance Hideyoshi would regain consciousness and finger him. The wound was a fatal one anyway, so he'd die soon enough.

Spoiler for Seventh, eighth, and ninth:

After this, everyone returns to the mansion. After getting a cup of coffee, George gets possessed by the notion to go see Shannon. Now, maybe Nanjo put the idea into his head, or maybe he just was stuck by a sudden inspiration. Either way, George jumps out the second story window. Nanjo notices this, locks up behind him and gets rid of the cup of coffee George left behind (I think the coffee cup is significant- if anyone other than the killer found a full cup of coffee sitting on the floor, they'd probably say something about this, right?). Nanjo prepares to leave, when he notices Krauss and Natsuhi in the lounge by themselves.

Now, he might have lured them out to the arbor by saying something along the lines of "I know who the killer is, but we need to talk about this where Eva can't hear" or something, but I can't really imagine he could pull off a double garrote on two conscious people, one of them with a gun. The two of them had probably dozed off while Eva was making coffee or washing up. Or maybe there was a sedative in their coffee. Nanjo strangled them while they slept, dragged them out to the arbor, and staked them. Then he rushed to the mansion and killed George as he cried over Shannon's corpse, wrote the PIN Shannon told him on the door, and blitzed back to his room again.

... This is the stickiest spot in my explanation of Episode 3. But it's still the best scenario I could think of- a few alternatives would be that Kyrie was the survivor and she killed George. Or that George killed himself. But which of them wrote the PIN on the door, and why did they know it? Why would either of them write it? I don't want to believe that Hideyoshi killed his son and wrote those numbers there. And, for Kyrie or Hideyoshi to kill George, they'd have to wake up, kill him, write the number, and then go back to playing dead until everyone passed by and found George. Again, all that leaves are Eva and Nanjo, and I can't think of a good reason for Eva to know that number. So somehow, Nanjo pulled it off. Maybe under that flabby exterior, he's actually pretty hulked out.

As for why Nanjo would write the PIN up like that... it might be that he was told the number by Shannon but she didn't tell him what it meant. It's purpose might have simply been to make finding George easy. Or maybe it was just to confuse things again. He did suggest that those numbers could be an alternate form of magic circle after Eva and the rest found it written there.

Spoiler for Endgame:

So Eva, Battler, Jessica and Nanjo make their way to the mansion yet again, finding Krauss and Natsuhi along the way. They see the PIN, speculate as to it's meaning, and enter to find George dead. Eva goes ballistic, Jessica accuses her, and while the two are fighting over the gun it goes off. The muzzle flash burns Jessica's eyes, blinding her. Eva panics and goes charging off into the mansion in search of the killer, and Battler follows her after Nanjo tells him he'll take Jessica to the servants quarters to treat her.

A short while later, Battler and Eva find Nanjo dead by the servants quarters, and Jessica back in the parlor. Eva's in such a state that when Battler accuses her of the murders, she probably believes it too. She shoots Battler dead. While this is taking place, Jessica says and does nothing.

Now then, lets back up a bit. Battler and Eva just left the parlor. Nanjo is alone with Jessica. Does he really take Jessica to the servants quarters? At some point around this time, Hideyoshi regains consciousness. He staggers to his feet, finds his gun, and sees Nanjo near the door to the servants quarters. He shoots Nanjo point blank, walks away, and then loses consciousness again. Shortly afterward, he dies.

If Nanjo really took Jessica to the servants quarters, how did she make it back to the parlor? Did Hideyoshi guide her? Now, we know that Jessica was alive when Nanjo was killed. So I suspect that either Nanjo drugged her or knocked her out somehow, or she just passed out. He left her in the parlor, maybe in search of a gun.

At this point, everyone aside from Eva is dead. She might have killed Jessica as well, or just left her to die. Maybe she fled to Kuwadorian to escape from the reality of the situation. Maybe she knew about the 'bomb' (but I doubt it).

Holy cow that got huge. Now I'll admit, this theory is probably not 'perfect'. There are a few fuzzy spots. It's the only good single culprit theory I could come up with though. Aside from Eva, but Battler played that one out for us already.

I'll talk about the second 'rule' I thought of a little later.

Oh, and TeeHee- I'm not trying to steal your thunder here. I still want to see your theory... seeing your line of thought might help me see where I went wrong with mine.

[Knicknevin]

Originally Posted by ijriims

I found it strange that Kyrie having such a outstanding westernized name had not been discussed in the game if it was wrong...

My problems with a Kyrie=Beatrice theory are... well, numerous.

As to this particular point though, I'd argue against such a theory simply because noone has ever discussed the oddity of her name. Knox's 8th (as it appears in the game): The mystery cant be solved with unknown clues. To turn it on it's head, you could then say that if Kyrie's name was considered odd, or that she had some kind of connection to Kinzo/Beatrice, clues must have been presented that show this.

I don't remember any. Was it even said that Kyrie and Kasumi were half sisters? I don't recall.

I'll admit, I've got my own theories about Kyrie. Episode 5 made it clear that she's the mastermind behind the plan to extort Krauss. And she was the one to confront Krauss about Kinzo in Episode 4 and cage him in with the agreement about the caretaker's 'duties'. I just don't think there's any meat to the theory that she's Beatrice, or has some connection or relation to Beatrice.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

My problems with a Kyrie=Beatrice theory are... well, numerous.

Spoiler for Just add shortening! :):

As to this particular point though, I'd argue against such a theory simply because noone has ever discussed the oddity of her name. Knox's 8th (as it appears in the game): The mystery cant be solved with unknown clues. To turn it on it's head, you could then say that if Kyrie's name was considered odd, or that she had some kind of connection to Kinzo/Beatrice, clues must have been presented that show this.

I don't remember any. Was it even said that Kyrie and Kasumi were half sisters? I don't recall.

I'll admit, I've got my own theories about Kyrie. Episode 5 made it clear that she's the mastermind behind the plan to extort Krauss. And she was the one to confront Krauss about Kinzo in Episode 4 and cage him in with the agreement about the caretaker's 'duties'. I just don't think there's any meat to the theory that she's Beatrice, or has some connection or relation to Beatrice.

Not to mention that the discovery of the gold was publicly announced, thereby satisfying "Beatrice's" need to perform the twilights.

And yet... someone (else?) decided to kill six people and make some shoddy magic circles anyways? That's a little strange. I'm not sure that Kyrie would do anything with magic circles... but I haven't done a full-fledged investigation yet on Ep5 yet.

Edit:

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

Oh, and TeeHee- I'm not trying to steal your thunder here. I still want to see your theory... seeing your line of thought might help me see where I went wrong with mine.

Don't worry about it. I'm struggling to put my piece together. Actually, your post helped me to notice some mistakes I made. It goes both ways.

[Kaiba]

Now, I've already gone over the conversation the cousins and Shannon had on the beach, where Shannon talks about how Battler acted 6 years ago and Battler gets embarrassed and denies it all. Judging from her behavior in other episodes, it's possible that she simply lost the will to live.

Perhaps I'm wrong, but didn't we see that conversation only in Episode 2? I mean, it is reasonable to assume it did occur in the other Episodes, but as I don't think Shannon loses the will to live in the other Episodes, one would think then that that conversation which would make Shannon suicidal would only occur in the Third Arc. Still an interesting idea.

[Knicknevin]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Perhaps I'm wrong, but didn't we see that conversation only in Episode 2? I mean, it is reasonable to assume it did occur in the other Episodes, but as I don't think Shannon loses the will to live in the other Episodes, one would think then that that conversation which would make Shannon suicidal would only occur in the Third Arc. Still an interesting idea.

It was in Episode 3. Second scene- "My preparations are complete" It's just a few pages into that scene.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Knicknevin

My problems with a Kyrie=Beatrice theory are... well, numerous.

As to this particular point though, I'd argue against such a theory simply because noone has ever discussed the oddity of her name. Knox's 8th (as it appears in the game): The mystery cant be solved with unknown clues. To turn it on it's head, you could then say that if Kyrie's name was considered odd, or that she had some kind of connection to Kinzo/Beatrice, clues must have been presented that show this.

I don't remember any. Was it even said that Kyrie and Kasumi were half sisters? I don't recall.

Maybe, maybe not. The game went in length to say how much the Ushiromiya family having the strange westernized names except Kinzo, and suddenly you had a supposedly outsider, Rudolf's wife, being called Kyrie.

It was natural that Ryukishi07 was putting something in it, but if you don't believe Kyrie to play any major roles from EP1-3, then you could just ignore and say it was just a red herring.

And Ryukishi07 made particularly clear that the EP1-4 may not completely follow the Knox rules, and usually they were reserved for mystery murder parts. Usually in detective novels, the motive was confessed by the culprit and sometimes the clues of whydunit could not be found at all. However, Umineko should have given us idea why the culprit could do this and it was central to solving some of the mysteries since the culprit do not necessarily adopt the "best" strategies sometimes. Kyrie could just be named Kirie, Kazue, Kameko, etc.

I suppose the whydunit would be revealed in EP7, until then, my hypothesis is no different from you that it was just an opinion. Propose also your complete theory and see whether which one got closer to Ryukishi07, will you?

Though I have to say in advance that I got some problem with Shannon or Jessica=Beatrice as well. Basically there were no clues to Jessica or Shannon secretly loving Battler at all, rather we have a pile of counter-evidence that Jessica and Shannon truly loved Kanon and George respectively. So any theorys saying that Battler's sin was to cause a heartbreak to Jessica and Shannon six years already failed in my eyes.

[Knicknevin]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Maybe, maybe not. The game went in length to say how much the Ushiromiya family having the strange westernized names except Kinzo, and suddenly you had a supposedly outsider, Rudolf's wife, being called Kyrie.

It was natural that Ryukishi07 was putting something in it, but if you don't believe Kyrie to play any major roles from EP1-3, then you could just ignore and say it was just a red herring.

And Ryukishi07 made particularly clear that the EP1-4 may not completely follow the Knox rules, and usually they were reserved for mystery murder parts. Usually in detective novels, the motive was confessed by the culprit and sometimes the clues of whydunit could not be found at all. However, Umineko should have given us idea why the culprit could do this and it was central to solving some of the mysteries since the culprit do not necessarily adopt the "best" strategies sometimes. Kyrie could just be named Kirie, Kazue, Kameko, etc.

I suppose the whydunit would be revealed in EP7, until then, my hypothesis is no different from you that it was just an opinion. Propose also your complete theory and see whether which one got closer to Ryukishi07, will you?

Fair enough, and I'm working on it.

Though I have to say in advance that I got some problem with Shannon or Jessica=Beatrice as well. Basically there were no clues to Jessica or Shannon secretly loving Battler at all, rather we have a pile of counter-evidence that Jessica and Shannon truly loved Kanon and George respectively. So any theorys saying that Battler's sin was to cause a heartbreak to Jessica and Shannon six years already failed in my eyes.

First, let me direct you here, it's not far back but just for reference. Or better yet, go re-read that scene (Ep3 scene 2, My preparations are complete), the part in question is right at the start of the scene. The general feeling of that scene might not directly state that Shannon had feelings for Battler, but the impression is certainly there, and it sounds like the reverse can't be said for Battler at least.


Now a few items of indirect support-

Spoiler for Image:

Beato sounds like she's a few bricks short of a pile here. But she repeats it so many times during this scene, I have to wonder if she didn't suffer some sort of 'abuse' at Kinzo's hands... I wouldn't put it past him, right? Granted, this doesn't actually grant any clarity as to who Beatrice is, but it does fit with the same theme we saw in Episode 2 about 'don't trust men, love is a lie, wait till George gets you in the sack, I can't wait to see you and George break up' etc.

And then

Spoiler for One more:

...

Well, I'm out of arguments. I suppose if you don't follow the Shannon=Beatrice line of thought by now, you must be pretty solid on your own theory. I'll keep thinking about things and see where that takes me...

[Geekodot]

I have a Shannon theory myself, but I hope I am wrong, because I don't want any of the servants to be the culprit.

Shannon is probably the culprit... even though I don't want it. I mean, no one else could've done all of it.

[Zork]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Though I have to say in advance that I got some problem with Shannon or Jessica=Beatrice as well. Basically there were no clues to Jessica or Shannon secretly loving Battler at all, rather we have a pile of counter-evidence that Jessica and Shannon truly loved Kanon and George respectively. So any theorys saying that Battler's sin was to cause a heartbreak to Jessica and Shannon six years already failed in my eyes.

Actually, I am somewhat suspicious about George and Shannon. I don't ever recall Shannon expressing any feelings for George in Battler's presence. He always seems to learn about the relationship from Jessica. Moreover, I don't recall Battler ever seeing Shannon wear George's ring while alive. The anime - though obviously not the most reliable of references - is surprisingly consistent on this point; throughout the second arc there are several shots in which her hands are displayed quite clearly and she is not wearing any rings.

Of course, I might just have forgotten where in the second game they mention her ring, but unless they did it seems entirely possible that she did not return George's affections. In fact, if someone were so inclined I imagine they could construct a fairly solid theory wherein a jilted George is the killer.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by Geekodot

I have a Shannon theory myself, but I hope I am wrong, because I don't want any of the servants to be the culprit.

Shannon is probably the culprit... even though I don't want it. I mean, no one else could've done all of it.

I'm crying with you.
(I didn't know we had that smily.)

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Zork

Actually, I am somewhat suspicious about George and Shannon. I don't ever recall Shannon expressing any feelings for George in Battler's presence. He always seems to learn about the relationship from Jessica. Moreover, I don't recall Battler ever seeing Shannon wear George's ring while alive. The anime - though obviously not the most reliable of references - is surprisingly consistent on this point; throughout the second arc there are several shots in which her hands are displayed quite clearly and she is not wearing any rings.

Of course, I might just have forgotten where in the second game they mention her ring, but unless they did it seems entirely possible that she did not return George's affections. In fact, if someone were so inclined I imagine they could construct a fairly solid theory wherein a jilted George is the killer.

I don't think the anime is a good source of info like that. If you recall, back with EP 2 when Beatrice met with Shannon in the anime the former was wearing Kinzo's ring, even though it was only 1984.

[Zork]

Originally Posted by Marion

I don't think the anime is a good source of info like that. If you recall, back with EP 2 when Beatrice met with Shannon in the anime the former was wearing Kinzo's ring, even though it was only 1984.

Well, the date of that particular scene is not made entirely clear. It could have been any time between October 1984 (the preceding scene) and December 1985 (the smashing of the mirror). According to EP5 the 1986 conference is the second since Kinzo died, so he kicked the bucket some time between October 1984 and October 1985. There's plenty of overlap between those two time frames.

It's not that big a deal, though. I was using only the anime as a reference because it's easy to skip around in episodes and look for something like that. The true test would be to go through to the visual novels again to see if Battler ever sees Shannon wearing the ring while she's alive, but I've been having difficulty finding the time for a second play-through.

[Knicknevin]

Rule 2: The epitaph murders, magic circles, and letters were all Beatrice's plan to make Battler remember his sin. Most of the servants might be assisting her in various episodes.

Spoiler for Size:

6 years ago, something Battler said or did had a marked effect on someone, and this set the ball rolling until everything comes to a head in 1986. From what we know about Battler, it was likely connected either to his leaving the Ushiromiya family (although Beatrice said it was not), Battler's tendency to say things without thinking them through, or something to do with Beatrice's legend (though Beatrice said she hadn't 'manifested' yet at that time).

I won't name names. Jessica, Shannon, Kyrie, Rosa, even Kumasawa, can all have valid theories constructed around them with the right manipulation and interpretation of both what we know, and what we don't. But from the various conversations above, it's not unreasonable to assume that Beatrice came into being in the mind of one of the women connected to the Ushiromiya family after they suffered some kind of abuse, physical, mental, or sexual, at the hands of Kinzo. Battler's percieved rejection or abandonment of them became a focus of this new alternate persona, Beatrice, who was created to carry the burden of whatever her host couldn't deal with, like Kinzo's abuse and Battler's sin. Beatrice became a confidant of Kinzo, accepting his last will to oversee the Ushiromiya family's final test.

Beatrice had her own agenda though- to test Battler and settle her regrets. In her persuit of this, she writes up a number of various plans in which she tries to remind Battler of his sin: in some cases she uses indirect methods like killings and stakings, while in others she confronts Battler directly.

There might be some significance to the pattern of stakings- it's been pointed out that a few people get hit with the same stake almost every time. But that hasn't been made clear.

The magic circles, on the other hand, are a clear message to Battler. Remember Maria's interpretations of them? Beatrice is a friend of Maria. She taught Maria each of those symbols, so she knows Maria can explain them to Battler.

Now, we know Maria is involved with Beatrice in some manner. Who else might be a part of her scheme? The most realistic suspects, regardless of Beatrice's identity, would be the servants. With their help, a number of the more puzzling crimes become possible. A few of the closed room revolve around the keys in the servants quarters: none of these keys are marked. While someone like Erika might be able to tell them all apart after only being told which was which once, it's more likely that a servant helped the killer (or was the killer) in those cases.

So which servants are helping, and why? I could construct theories in which only one of the servants helps in each game, but it's possible that several, or even all of them are in on it.

Each has their own buttons that Beatrice might be able to push: Kanon has no love for the Ushiromiya family. He might help on the promise that Jessica or Shannon (or both, if neither is Beatrice) be left out of the killings. Shannon might help as long as George is left alone. Her only condition might be that Eva and Hideyoshi die since they are her biggest obstacles(Ep5 aside, ever notice that if Shannon lives through the first twilight, Eva and Hideyoshi die, and vice versa?). Kumasawa wants to leave her children and grandchildren enough money that they could live in luxury (she was trying to solve the epitaph on her own, right? Or did she write it...). Nanjo needs money to pay for and possibly even research a treatment for his grandchild. Genji might go along with it as long as he thought it was following Kinzo's wishes.

Gohda is the only wild card- we don't really know too much about him. But after 5 episodes, I'm starting to doubt there's much to know. Murder doesn't seem like it's in his nature though. He's probably in the dark, same as with the Kinzo conspiracy.

They don't all have to be involved in every episode. Beatrice might choose one or two among them each episode to assist her, depending on which plan she is carrying out.

Also, about the letters- they're really more a part of Kinzo's test, but a few came with magic circles in the envelope, or were signed as 'Beatrice', and many were found with murder victims, or at the scenes of the crime etc. They fall somewhat into both plans.



Now let me make this clear- my personal interpretation of this makes me place my primary suspicion for Beatrice's identity to be Shannon. This doesn't mean, however, that this is going to end with Shannon leaving George for Battler. Though who knows what her real feelings about George are. Beatrice certainly doesn't seem to like him.

I look at Beatrice as representing the feelings Shannon couldn't let go of. When she first became interested in George, she couldn't reconcile that with her feelings for Battler, who she had been waiting for while suffering Kinzo's abuse. So her mind simply split. Shannon moved on with her life, Beatrice stewed and schemed while she waited for Battler to return. Beatrice found a kindred spirit in Maria, whose innocence allowed her to believe Beatrice really existed and was a real witch. But as time went on Rosa's neglect became plain even to Maria, and Maria's character began darkening, perhaps effecting Beatrice in turn. Or maybe it was Beatrice who changed Maria. Either way is fine probably.

Recall also that Beatrice wants Battler to 'kill her'. This may be taken to mean settling Shannon's regrets so she can move on with her life. Until Battler admits that he had feelings for her and apologises for leaving her behind for so long, she won't be able to commit to her relationship with George.

... I'll admit, however, that last part is just a guess on my part. All things considered, Bratrice seems ready to die in a more literal sense if things don't go as she planned.

I tried to construct this rule and the previous one in such a way that it could fit with almost any of the possible 'Beatrice' theories. Though some suspects, like Kumasawa, don't fit it too well.

Alright, that's done with. Next up, I think I'l go over my theory about Episode 5, which also covers my third and final rule: Kyrie's plan.

[TeeHee]

Episode 3 Map, version 5.0
(5.0 means that I watched EP 5, and this is my first iteration. The next iteration would be 5.1, if I apply it.)

My original intent was to explore various complete applications of theories, but it became something a bit different. In a word, a map.

My objective isn't to be complete (we all know what a "closed room" is, for example), but to gather all of the necessary context and clues for the murders. After all, this episode in particular is the most difficult Wolf and Sheep puzzle I have ever seen.

Spoiler for First Twilight:

First twilight:

In order of discovery:
Shannon (parlor, 1st floor, mansion)
Kumasawa (seldom used guest room, 2nd floor, mansion)
Gohda (waiting room, 3rd floor, mansion)
Genji (honored guest room, 2nd floor, mansion)
Kinzo (burnt in boiler room, basement, mansion)
Kanon (chapel)

Except for Kinzo, all were killed with a weapon assumed to be a gun or a spear-shaped object.

Red truths, etc:
- Five master keys, one for each servant, each in their corpse's posessions.
- No traps, no suicides (almost said "no accidents", but SHE NEVER DID)
- No auto-locks, no special windows.
- They are all dead at the time of their discovery.
- All deaths were instant.
- Only the victims were in the rooms upon discovery. (No hiding allowed.)
- Wounds resembling gunshots were fatal. (EP4)
- All of the murders took place inside thier respective rooms. (EP4)
- "When the five other than Kinzo were murdered, the murderer was definitely in the same room."
- Of course, Kinzo was dead to begin with.

Blue truth:
- "After the murder of each person in their respective rooms, the culprit created a linked closed room. But the culprit just couldn't return the key for the last room to the inside of that closed room no matter what they did. But they were able to return it. The first person to discover a corpse just had to pretend to find the key and show that they'd pulled it from the pocket of one of the corpses!!"

Notes:
- Is this the last twilight using both Kinzo-sealed letters and magic circles? If it is, then "Beatrice" could very well be one of the deceased.
- Nanjo returned to his room early that night.
- Those who entered the first room: Krauss, Natsuhi, Eva, Hideyoshi, Rudolf, and Nanjo. Nanjo was then asked to check her condition.

Possible culprits:
- Anyone except Battler and Jessica (innocent in red)
- Likely innocent: Krauss, Natsuhi, Eva, Hideyoshi, Rudolf, Kyrie, and Rosa (meeting)
- Culprits/accomplices among the dead: Minimum 0, Maximum 5
- Culprits/accomplices among the living: Minimum 1

Spoiler for Second Twilight:

Second twilight:

Rosa (medulla oblongata pierced by fence, rose garden)
Maria (strangled, rose garden)

Red:
- Nanjo's diagnosis of their deaths is correct. In other words, they were definitely dead upon discovery.
- They were killed by other people.
- Hideyoshi was in the "headache" room at the time, both before and after.

Notes:
- Eva acting sick looks like a huge cover-up. But that's just my subjectivity at large.
- Meanwhile:

• The adults are in the lounge chatting, trying to ignore Maria.
• The kids are watching TV and chatting.
• Nanjo is supposedly in his own room reading a book.

- Hideyoshi told them to be quiet before they went outside. Did Eva deliberately follow them outside knowing that the two of them would be alone in the open rain, or did she happen to be outside anyways?
- Rosa was killed when she had a gun in her posession, still fully loaded. Whoever killed her was able to do it when her guard was down.
- My guess is that someone killed Rosa by slamming her into the fence, and then strangled helpless Maria. "Uuu! Uuu! **Ugggghhh!!**"

Possible culprits:
- Eva and/or Nanjo

Spoiler for Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Twilights:

Fourth, Fifth, and Sixth Twilights:

Rudolf (forehead pierced by a stake, mansion hall)
Hideyoshi (chest pierced by a stake, mansion hall)
Kyrie (stomach pierced by a stake, mansion hall)

Red/facts:
- Kyrie had other reasons than food to go to the mansion with Rudolf and Hideyoshi.
- Kyrie had a cigarette in her pocket. It matches Hideyoshi's brand.

Notes:
- Rudolf and Hideyoshi had guns. Kyrie was in charge of the cart.
- Eva is "feelin' pretty darn bad right now. We can't let her stay hungry." Is this a cover-up?
- By the way, they all have stakes stuck in them. Epitaph-centric.
- Afterwards, Eva "wakes up from a nightmare about a witch", says that Hideyoshi "broke his promise", the "witch is outside!!", "Thirty minutes?? [...] We have to quickly go to where they are!!".
- Battler, Eva, George, and Nanjo headed the investigation.
- Ronove refused to repeat that they are dead in red. EVA-Beatrice later said that they were all dead but never specified a time.
- George is the slowest to cry. Bad acting?
- "Rudolf's group had gone out holding two guns and one master key. But those had been lost. It was already clear that those had been stolen by the culprit." So they locked up the guest house in defense, locking the front and back doors with chains.
- Were they necessarily unable to leave through the kitchen door? Where did that cart end up?

Possible culprits (likely or unlikely):
- Rudolf
- Hideyoshi
- Kyrie
- Nanjo
- Eva
- Krauss
- Natsuhi

Spoiler for Seventh & Eighth Twilights:

Seventh & Eighth Twilights:

Krauss (strangled w/ stake in thigh, rose garden arbor)
Natsuhi (strangled w/ stake in calf, rose garden arbor)

Notes:
- This would be easier to explain if two culprits simultaneously killed them, unless they were killed one at a time and lured/dragged them to the arbor.
- More stakes, eh? I wonder if this person is necessarily behind the 4th, 5th, and 6th twilights as well. If not, there must have been some advance planning involved.
- Meanwhile, Battler, George, Jessica, and Nanjo were upstairs in the guest house. But then Nanjo hides in his own room.
- Eva: Goes to wash her face, make more coffee. Then the twilights occur; they die, get "dragged outside", and Eva comes back to find them missing.
- It could mean that Eva goint to the lavatory is her checking to see if George made it outside. Of course, that depends on the layout of the guesthouse.
- Were they even declared dead in red?
- Afterwards, doors were locked from the inside with chains.

Possible culprits:
- Rudolf
- Hideyoshi
- Kyrie
- Nanjo
- Krauss
- Natsuhi
- Eva
- George

Spoiler for Post-Twilight (Part 1):

Post-Twilight (Part 1):

George (gun or spear-shaped weapon, parlor, joined Shannon, 07151129)

Red:
- George did not go down the stairs of the guesthouse. The windows were locked. (EP4)

Blue:
- "Everything works out as long as someone locked the window after George-aniki escaped through it!"

Notes:
- Was he really dead when he was found with dead Shannon? Who checked his corpse?
- There is no weapon in the room. Did someone kill him and lock the door?
- George asked everyone upstairs if they wanted coffee. But then he didn't go downstairs to make it. He (might have) left the mug in the floor hallway upstairs; otherwise, it's in Nanjo's room.
- Nanjo probably helped George crawl out through his window and then locked the window behind him.
- The mansion - and his room - was locked before his body was discovered.

Possible culprits:
- Rudolf
- Hideyoshi
- Kyrie
- Nanjo
- Krauss
- Natsuhi
- Eva
- George

Spoiler for Post-Twilight (Part 2):

Post-Twilight (Part 2):
Nanjo (gun or spear-shaped weapon, half his head blown off, hallway in front of servant's room)

Red:
- When Nanjo's body is discovered:

• Only Battler, Eva, and Jessica are alive.
• Of these three, none of them killed Nanjo.

- "Jessica has not committed murder." Meaning at all. Neither has Battler.
- In short, someone shot him at point blank. And then he/she died somehow.

Possible culprits:
- Rudolf
- Hideyoshi
- Kyrie
- Krauss
- Natsuhi
- George

Spoiler for Post-Twilight (Part 3):

Post-Twilight (Part 3):
Battler (Shot to death by Eva, mansion)
Jessica (Missing, blinded by the shotgun blast)

I also added my own general questions:

Spoiler for Questions:

Questions:

Who has all of the master keys after the first twilight?
- The adults? If we assume one per family (Krauss, Eva, Rudolf, and Rosa), wouldn't that mean that Nanjo has a key? If so, he could easily lend one to George.

Was the mansion door locked before they found George's body?
- Yes. And then Eva unlocked it when they reached the mansion.

Who has the guns?
- After the first twilight four guns. Initially:
* Krauss - missing after his "death"
* Eva
* Rudolf - missing after his "death"
* Rosa - taken by Hideyoshi - missing after his "death"

".... At the time of the accident, why was Eva oba-san in a place 2 kilometers away from the mansion, all alone? And on the night of a storm." How was Eva able to locate Kuwadorian?
- Perhaps Nanjo told her how to locate it. Or she found it by chance.

What about the occult stuff? (Stakes, magic circles)
- Assuming that "Beatrice" was killed with an accomplice (Nanjo?), she delegated this task to the accomplice. If so, either the accomplice in turn delegated the same task to other individuals, or he performed them himself. Doing that singlehandedly would be difficult with there being a chain on the guest house door.

What about "Beatrice's" appearance? Her letters?
- That all ends at the first twilight. It could mean that "Beatrice" dies in the first twilight, though not necessarily.

What about the PIN code? (07151129)
- Someone on the forums suggested that (contrary to my other theory) Asumu's and Kyrie's sons have been swapped in secret. If it really is true, then the PIN could possibly be both dates of Battler's "birth", both from Asumu (0715) and from Kyrie (1129). And if that is true, maybe Kyrie or Rudolf had a means of knowing what the PIN was for whatever reason. But that's hard to support.
- Setting aside the symbolism, If we assume that Kinzo handed down this secret code to his trusted servants and long-time acquaintance Nanjo, then Nanjo would be the only one left to know what the PIN is. When Nanjo saw it on the door, he broke a sweat and said that it must be the witch's doing.
- In any case, Eva wrote it down in her notebook. Either she was told to write it down, per se, or she's just attentive.

Is there a means of automatically discovering whether or not the gold has been discovered?
- I suppose that with a triggered electrical system, it can be easily done. Let's say on the door to the "Golden Land". And if there is a

I have some scenarios that I will need to test and see if I can get them to work. I need to try them out with various assumptions; mix and match to see if I can get them to work out in a way that makes sense. Feel free to add your own. Even better, try to put some assumptions together to make a masterpiece Ep3 theory.

My test lab will be a mess, unless I can get some more definitive constraints.

Spoiler for Assumptions to Test:

Assumptions to test:

(A) "Beatrice" dies in the first twilight and hands off the task to "EVA-Beatrice".
- If you know me, you know that I think that Shannon is "Beatrice".

(B) Eva is a murderer.
- We know that, but to what extent?

(C) Hideyoshi is a murderer.
- This can be possible if he coordinated with Nanjo for a fake autopsy, and he gave him three stakes in addition.
- If there is anyone who has a 99.99999% chance of knowing about the gold, it's him.

(D) George is a murderer.
- Maybe he got a key to the mansion from Nanjo.
- Maybe Nanjo told him the PIN.
- Maybe he worked in coordination with Eva, Hideyoshi, and Nanjo.
- Maybe Eva told him that she discovered the gold.

(E) Nanjo is a murderer.
- He may or may not be coordinating with other murderers, whether for mutual gain or under a threat.
- He probably has all of the remaining stakes.
- He is the most likely supplier of stakes for Krauss and Natsuhi.

(F) Rudolf and/or Kyrie are murderers.
- This can be possible if they coordinated with Nanjo for a fake autopsy, and he gave them stakes in addition.
- They were suspicious about the cigarette, so they question him. Kyrie can be scary when she's aggressive, and Rudolf is a fan of Westerns. Two wolves, one sheep.
- Also, it wouldn't be hard for the two of them to hide their guns and keys in a work of espionage. But then they would have to play dead for every time people come to the door.

(G) Krauss and/or Natsuhi are murderers.
- Boy, that would be hard to support. Is anyone willing to humor this idea?

(H) After the first twilight, Nanjo is the only one left who knows the pin.
- The other possibilities would be:

(J) After the first twilight, someone other than Nanjo only/also happens to know the PIN.

(K) After the first twilight, someone independently figures out what the PIN is by deduction and feels the need to announce it on the door.

Edit: Ooops, I particularly wanted this one in here:
(J) Eva's family members (Eva, Hideyoshi, George) would never murder each other, unless there is an accident.
- But in a mystery, we shouldn't count on accidents.