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Old 2013-09-27, 11:11   Link #1241
Subayai
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Looking at today's stats, Nodoka voters had indeed some preference for Tomoka over Kyouko. I don't think this would surprise anyone because Saki fans had reasons to eliminate Kyouko.

However, the bias in favor of Tomoka is relatively small. Without it, it would have been a close victory by Kyouko by about 25 votes only. Tomoka had considerable strength of her own and without that, she couldn't have won. All things considered, I coincide with others above that Tomoka could be as big of a threat for the other Saki's in group D as Kyouko would have been.

The stats also show a very good affinity between Tomoka and Yoshino, and Nodoka and Yoshino. The bias in these two cases is much more pronounced that in the case of Nodoka-Tomoka. This would explain Yoshino's convincing victory today.



And yeah today Saori all the way. Panzer Vor!
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Old 2013-09-27, 11:18   Link #1242
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I think Tomoka won because the final episode of Ro-Kyu-Bu was airing during the final 30 minutes of voting time. The episode was showing Tomoka in her best and so those who were watching it voted for her. I am glad that Tomoka won this match because of what happened in the episode. I guess "shougakusei wa saikou daze".

Not surprised Nodoka won because in every year she participated she reached the semifinals. Misaka probably could have won if the final episode of Railgun S were airing an hour earlier which would have been during the final 30 minutes of voting time. It probably could have helped her getting more votes.

Yoshino's victory was no surprise especially when the latest volume of Date A Live novel just came out last week.
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Old 2013-09-27, 11:20   Link #1243
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I'm going to wait to see how Arata does today before taking a position on Tomoka.

I do think that the Saki voters have done a great job on the strategic side of things with Block D, but they haven't really had a truly stand-out performance by one of their girls in that block yet. For Saki to win Block D, they will eventually have to hit the high 300s, I think, if not even higher.

Can Arata do that, and defeat Saori? If so, it would go a long way to suggesting that Saki will win Block D. If Arata either doesn't hit the high 300s, or fails to defeat Saori, or both, then I do think that Block D is still open regardless of how good Saki faction voters have been on the strategic voting side of things.

I like Arata, so I'm going to go against the prevailing mood here and say I hope she wins her match.
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Old 2013-09-27, 11:34   Link #1244
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shinhwa View Post
What do you mean by that? o.o
The same what happened with Index's votings e.e

Fanboys spamming votes for their fav character.


Yoshino <3
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Old 2013-09-27, 13:59   Link #1245
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Wilfriback View Post
The same what happened with Index's votings e.e

Fanboys spamming votes for their fav character.


Yoshino <3
Well at least Yoshino won @__@
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Old 2013-09-27, 15:53   Link #1246
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As far as sniping...I don't understand why people say Saki faction wants TOSHINO KYOUKO out, especially when that effectively also eliminate Koromo.

Mokkan herself is not weak at all...just bc RKB doesn't get flashy wins (up until now) doesn't mean they're that weak, especially Mokkan and Hinata (Okay, Hina is doom thanks to Niku losing to a certain white devil). I don't see how Mokkan makes things easier for the Saki girls either, when Mokkan won against Awai with ease (Yes, Awai is not that strong, but she could still easily won against a bunch of girls)

Nodocchi won against Biribiri on the other match. Since I'm not a fan of either (I don't hate them, just don't like them as much as some girls), I don't particularlycare one way or the other. Biribiri choking is nothing new, though...

Yoshino won, so much for YRYR combo vote...

For today:
D2-4: Pick/Predict: Arata. Saori is no Miborin...
E2-4: Pick/Predict: Himawari. Upset pick of the day. Yes, TOSHINO KYOUKO lose, but YRYR still cannot be underestimate
F2-4: Pick: AhoMaho, Predict: Nyaruko. Strongest of the 3, at least according to stats
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Old 2013-09-27, 16:19   Link #1247
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
As far as sniping...I don't understand why people say Saki faction wants TOSHINO KYOUKO out, especially when that effectively also eliminate Koromo.
The Saki faction is simply too strong and too large in sheer numbers to care that much about girls that have already lost.

When you have as many strong girls as Saki does, it's best to prioritize the girls that manage to at least win a couple rounds. Getting into the Sweet 16 through winning a block is quick and simple and involves minimal variables. Getting in through repechage is much more of a gamble with all sorts of variables in play.


Quote:
Mokkan herself is not weak at all...just bc RKB doesn't get flashy wins (up until now) doesn't mean they're that weak, especially Mokkan and Hinata (Okay, Hina is doom thanks to Niku losing to a certain white devil).
Tomoka is certainly stronger than much of the field, or she wouldn't be going to the third round.

But let's be honest here - Prior to her 2nd round victory, nobody here talked about Tomoka like they did TOSHINO KYOUKO. It was clear just from what people on this thread were saying about the girls in this tournament that TOSHINO KYOUKO was perceived as being stronger than Tomoka was. Maybe that perception was wrong, but snipers often pick their targets on the basis of perceived strength, since that's often all they have to go by.

Edit: I think that some faction supporters take time to size up blocks, to try to determine if their faction has a realistic shot at winning that block. If they determine that they have a realistic shot, then there's a decent chance they'll aim to snipe the girls in that block that they perceive to be the greatest threats to them winning the block. So I think the Saki faction voters took aim at Sena and Kyouko Toshino, based on the strength reputations that those two girls have. All of this makes perfectly good sense to me.
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Old 2013-09-27, 17:40   Link #1248
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Another preliminary round result get overturned. Kyouko fights hard but can't beat Tomoka in the end. Tomoka does have a chance to win the block so it's not all bad for Kyouko but I imagine Kyouko fans would rather be carrying Tomoka than being carried. Yoshino won the second match which followed my prediction. Chitose didn't seem to get much love from Kyuoko's match. Misaka puts up a strong fight but Nodoka is as tough to beat as ever. Similar to Kyouko, Misaka has a good chance of getting revived but it won't be an easy road at all for Nodoka.
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Old 2013-09-27, 22:08   Link #1249
KanbeKotori
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Yay! Nodoka survived and beat Mikoto!

Am surprised that Kyouko fails to beat Tomoka(I prefer Tomoka and voted for her but I didn't expect Kyouko would lose).

Yoshino won her match. It's a good day.


My votes

<<鷺森灼@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
<<高鴨穏乃@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
<<三沢真帆@ロウきゅーぶ!>>


I hope another Ro-Kyu-Bu girl can win :/
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Old 2013-09-27, 23:32   Link #1250
AP24
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In this year's tournament if their favorite characters lose then the voters would vote for the characters that beat them. So, TOSHINOU KYOUKO fans will have to support Mokkan until she wins the group block if they want Kyouko to still continue. Given the number of votes Kyouko and Tomoka got in Round 2, Tomoka should get quite a large number votes in Round 3 and possibly win the block.

The same goes for Nodocchi and BiriBiri. Misaka fans will have to support Nodoka until she wins the group block if they want Misaka to still continue. Given the number of votes Misaka and Nodoka got in Round 2, Nodoka should also get quite a large number votes in Round 3 and possibly win the block.

In the end, facing against strong characters is tough but it benefits for the winners because in the next rounds they are likely to gain more support from voters whose favorite characters lost in 2nd place to the winners. If the characters the winners beat are weak or don't have a lot of fans, then they won't get much more support in the later rounds. That's why, when predicting who's going to win in each match, the characters that they defeated in the previous rounds should also be considered.
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Old 2013-09-28, 09:17   Link #1251
Subayai
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Official Results for Round 2 Day 8

D2-4
1st 246 Arata Sagimori @ Saki
2nd 222 Saori Takebe @ Girls Und Panzer
3rd 84 Misaki Shokuhou @ Toaru Kagaku No Railgun

E2-4
1st 275 Shizuno Takakamo @ Saki
2nd 197 Himawari Furutani @ Yuru Yuri
3rd 87 Honoka Kousaka @ Love Live!

F2-4
1st 226 Maho Misawa @ Ro-Kyu-Bu!
2nd 179 Nyaruko @ Haiyore! Nyaruko-san
3rd 128 Suguha Kirigaya (Leafa) @ Sword Art Online

EDIT: Results are now official. No changes.
They were slow in releasing results today.
==============================================

Last edited by Subayai; 2013-09-28 at 09:31.
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Old 2013-09-28, 09:46   Link #1252
Aya Reiko
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Probably the last chance I can put this to good use...



Spoiler for The Big Board:


Tomorrow's Guesses...
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Old 2013-09-28, 10:15   Link #1253
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Arata, Saori, and Misaki all lost votes compared to their first round performances? That's just weird, man.

Anyway, yeah, Tomoka definitely has a chance to win Block D now. In fact, I'd now say she's the favorite to win it. Arata won her 2nd round match, but that was not an impressive performance by her.
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Old 2013-09-28, 11:01   Link #1254
ion475
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Sigh...Sakurako is crying somewhere...

Saki, after not looking that strong in Round 1, is back in business with both Arata and Shizu going through. AhoMaho continues RKB's run with a win against Nyaruko.

Since I don't think I will have Internet for the next two days, I will just post my G/H 2-1 pick/prediction

G2-1: Pick/Predict: Kuroneko. As much as KN is now behind Ayase in my Oreimo rank, she still has a place deep down <- Getting cut apart by Ayase
H2-1: Pick: Kuroko, Predict: Wakana. Pure guess bc I'm on my phone and it's not easy to get all the stats...
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Old 2013-09-28, 11:05   Link #1255
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Back from a long hiatus from this thread.

I'll give a quick check regarding the results so far. Replies to past posts later.

Glad to see Yoshino do so well so far. In fact she's the only DAL girl who actually won rounds (though Kurumi and Origami might still have a chance via repechage). Her first real test will be against a Saki character come Oct 10th. Good luck! ^_^

Speaking of Saki, more than 1/3 of the 24 round 3ers so far are Saki girls. Even if none of the remaining 8 round 3ers are Saki girls (and only 1 at most) make it to round 3, that's still 9/32, or more than a quarter. It remains to be seen how well Saki will do this Saimoe. OTOH Girls und Panzer are floundering, with only 1 girl (out of 24 so far) in round 3 with at most 1 more of the remaining 8. That's almost as bad as Date A Live.

Ayase knocked out both Homura and Madoka. I did not see that coming. Part of me wishes to see Ayase knocked out before the block finals so both Homura and Madoka will be ineligible for repechage, but... ah well. Not like that'll happen since the MadoMagi fanbase will start voting for Ayase to make sure Madoka at least makes it to repechage. But Madoka having more votes than Homura... well, that was quite unexpected too. I'm starting to think that Homura and not Sayaka is actually the weakest of the 5 MadoMagi girls. Sayaka still needs more love though.

Mikoto Misaka seems like she did quite well actually, narrowly losing to Nodoka in round 2. I think the AST voters are more or less over that '11 Misakagate already?


And for the first time ever, I'm going to actually make picks and predictions. I'm just going by the Big Board's order because I'm simply too lazy to copy the names. So here goes:

Picks
Block G: 1/3/1/2
Block H: 3/3/1/2

Predictions
Block G: 1/3/3/3
Block H: 2/3/2/2

Most of them are just random picks because I don't know the girls or the anime they're from. Of course, Sayaka is an exception...

Also, picks for round 3. All blocks. Yes, even G and H. I'm predicting that no matter who wins round 2, round 3's results won't be affected. (Eg. Even if Sayaka somehow loses in round 2, I predict that whoever beat her will win round 3, mainly due to MadoMagi voters voting for the winner so Sayaka can make it through repechage.)

Round 3
Picks: 1/1/1/1/1/2/2/1/1/1/1/2/1/2/2/2
Predictions: 1/2/1/2/1/2/1/1/1/1/1/1/1/2/2/1

This should give me a reprieve for the next 2 weeks or so.


On a side note, I just realised that even though my favourite colour is red, it seems like I have a thing for blue-haired girls. That must be it. Sayaka, pleeease grow your hair out so I have more reason to vote for you...

And also, I predict that 2014's winner will be a girl from Hyperdimension Neptunia: The Animation. Even if Date A Live season 2 (which'll introduce another blue-haired girl) comes out in Spring 2014. I'll be rooting for Nepgear then, but I think Noire will win. Surprise surprise, neither has blue hair.


Over and out till later.
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Last edited by iamadooddood; 2013-09-28 at 12:02.
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Old 2013-09-28, 12:50   Link #1256
hinakatbklyn
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- Arata wins her match and evens the score with GuP. That guarantees that there will be two (or maybe three) Saki reps continuing on after the group D finals no matter who wins the group. But since Arata's win wasn't quite as convincing, Having three Saki reps in the same group might not be enough to win against one Tomoka.

I did think Kyouko had the best chance at Group D, but I thought Tomoka was close enough to challenge and used her series as a reason to choose Tomoka as a darkhorse prediction before the main tournament. Turns out my prediction to win Group D is still possible.

- Shizuno on the other hand was a convincing win and still appears to be my choice for Group E (Even though Yoshino ended up with the most winning votes in Group E). Kobato currently looks like the other candidate to challenge for Group E.

- It's unlikely that the winner will win against Nodoka, but with Repchange and the fact that Nodoka has a 50/50 chance of winning Group F, it's possible to lose the round three match and still get another chance. Maho holds on to her Ro-Kyu-Bu series boost and wins her match against Nyaruko and Suguha to advance to round 3.

(Early predictions on next matches)

(G) Chiho might challenge for the win, but my current prediction is still Ruri (Kuroneko)

(H) I'm not totally convinced Kuroko can win her match. Maho had the higher vote total for GuP, while Kuroko and Wakana had almost similar convincing wins (Vote difference)
Supporting: Wakana Prediction: Kuroko (maybe)
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Old 2013-09-28, 12:55   Link #1257
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Kuroko will win if the Raildex faction rallies behind her in the wake of Mikoto's lost to Nodoka. Otherwise, I think that Wakana wins, but it is a close call.

I think that Kuroneko wins her next match.
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Old 2013-09-28, 14:04   Link #1258
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Good effort by Saori but not enough to take down Arata. My worries about Shizuno turn out to be unfounded. Himawari doesn't get close to taking down Shizuno. I expected Suguha to be the one give Nyaruko problems but it's Maho who wins in the end. I suppose I didn't expect Maho to be too far behind the other two but I didn't really think she would win. Maybe she was getting help from the end of Ro-kyu-bu season 2. I still need to get around to watching that.
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Old 2013-09-28, 15:20   Link #1259
KanbeKotori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by subayai View Post
official results for round 2 day 8

d2-4
1st 246 arata sagimori @ saki
2nd 222 saori takebe @ girls und panzer
3rd 84 misaki shokuhou @ toaru kagaku no railgun

e2-4
1st 275 shizuno takakamo @ saki
2nd 197 himawari furutani @ yuru yuri
3rd 87 honoka kousaka @ love live!

F2-4
1st 226 maho misawa @ ro-kyu-bu!
2nd 179 nyaruko @ haiyore! Nyaruko-san
3rd 128 suguha kirigaya (leafa) @ sword art online

edit: Results are now official. No changes.
They were slow in releasing results today.
==============================================
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!i

All my 3 girls are in

AM VERY HAPPY!i
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Old 2013-09-29, 01:06   Link #1260
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Wow these last few days have been awful. I've been watching without comment, but it's just gotten to me. Prepare for a small rant.


Really? Sakurako over Dekomori? Dekomori is adorable. Sakurako is a brat.

Tomoka over TOSHINOU KYOUKO? TOSHINOU KYOUKO is hilarious and lovable. So, what's so great about Tomoka? (No really, someone tell me; I couldn't stand to watch past episode one of Ro-Kyu-Bu)

Nodoka over biribiri is just sad. Boring vs Awesome? Let's pick boring!

And Arata over Saori? Saori is quite charming (I'd be happy to help her with her boyfriend problem). But Arata? Is she even moe? If she were from any other series, she'd be first round fodder.



Now that that's over with, some more level-headed comments.

None of these results the last few days really surprised me that much, except perhaps Sakurako over Sanae. Mostly the close matches just all went a way that I didn't like.

Group D:

Dunno who will win, except it won't be Arata. With Saori and Kyouko both out, it's hard for me to care about this group. I like Ryuuka, but as a finalist she wouldn't do much except for pad -Saki-'s ridiculous stats. Only thing to really hope for from group D is a Kyouko repechage.

Group E:

Go Kobato. I doubt she can beat the winner of Shizuno vs Yoshino, but she's got a good shot against Sakurako. With a win there, she's secured at least a repechage spot.

Group F:

I hate Nodoka. To be more precise, I hate how popular she is and continues to be in AST when I find her entirely mediocre. I hope Watashi can take her down, but it looks tough.

Next matches:

I've just gotten around to watching Hataraku Maou, and Chi-chan is reaaaally cute. Kuroneko herself is also very charming and probably has the advantage, but I'll be hoping for Chi-chan to surprise everyone with an upset.

For the other match, I just hope that the Railgun supporters show up. How will the react to biribiri's loss against Nodoka? Kuroko not having done much in Railgun S2 doesn't help. I don't know Tari Tari, but Wakana looks pretty threatening, stat-wise.
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