[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by Renall

Maybe if the person being "trapped" is daft. No rational person would have given her any conditional partial detective authority. It's either take the full thing or don't. If she doesn't, she can't do jack. If she does, she can't trap him.

Only a moron or a genius would allow her something so arbitrary as three room sealings. Why three specifically? Why not one, or two, or eight?

It happens to the best of us. We handicap ourselves when victory is imminent; we have pity on our opponents. Now it was a stupid thing for him to do, but it's understandable.

And three was just a random number. He could have given her only one, and she could have very easily done something similar to him.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

Only a moron or a genius would allow her something so arbitrary as three room sealings. Why three specifically? Why not one, or two, or eight?

If we take the story at face value, it was because three was less than six. Even if she guessed the three most likely to be faking death and sealed those rooms, it wouldn't stop Battler since all six were faking.

Maybe if the person being "trapped" is daft. No rational person would have given her any conditional partial detective authority. It's either take the full thing or don't. If she doesn't, she can't do jack. If she does, she can't trap him.

Well, unless he was expecting her to actually be the murderer, he has nothing to gain from giving her the full authority. I think it's fair to say that Erika killing everyone was far from an obvious conclusion.

[Renall]

I think it helps to look at it with the whole Kinzo and Devil's Roulette thing.

A Bernkastel approach would be to wait for events to transpire in which the necessary conditions for the revival are met. It's patient. If it doesn't happen now, it will happen eventually. Bern can wait.

A Kinzo/Battler approach would be to set up the conditions necessary to force the revival to its highest possible chance of occurrence, and if it fails, to bet everything on the chance. In other words, it's all or nothing. You put it all on the wheel and bet everything on chance. Either you fail and get destroyed or you win.

The question is, did Battler put it all on the table intentionally, and if he did, did he think it would lead to the outcome he predicted? Or was his recklessness just coincidentally the same lucky trait that brought Kinzo success?

Originally Posted by chronotrig

If we take the story at face value, it was because three was less than six. Even if she guessed the three most likely to be faking death and sealed those rooms, it wouldn't stop Battler since all six were faking.

...

Well, unless he was expecting her to actually be the murderer, he has nothing to gain from giving her the full authority. I think it's fair to say that Erika killing everyone was far from an obvious conclusion.

Two problems:

1) Three is coincidentally exactly the number she needs to trap him. Two is not enough, four is too many.

2) He seems very keen on not simply forcing her to take the detective privilege. For all her claims that she can't do it and can beat him without it and his suspicions that Bern won't let her, why would he make a compromise that Bern would readily and immediately accept and not be even slightly suspicious?

And I think it was easy to guess the lengths Erika would go to, especially given her stubborn refusal to take the detective privilege. There is one and only one reason she benefits from not having it. Battler isn't a moron. He had to have been able to suppose.

[Judoh]

I really have to think Battler could've predicted Erika could've been the murderer. If he didn't think of that he would've said that she wasn't in red with Hideyoshi and company and he predicted possibilities of everything else he could've said in red and refused on. Why wouldn't he notice the consequence on just this one red? If Battler really was ignorant of this he could've said she isn't the murderer at that time simply because he thought she's the detective.

[UsagiTenpura]

I think that question is similar to arc 5 in a way. Did LD planned out for Battler's revival as endless sorcerer at the end? It felt that way to me at least from her early arc conversations.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Renall

1) Three is coincidentally exactly the number she needs to trap him. Two is not enough, four is too many.

2) He seems very keen on not simply forcing her to take the detective privilege. For all her claims that she can't do it and can beat him without it and his suspicions that Bern won't let her, why would he make a compromise that Bern would readily and immediately accept and not be even slightly suspicious?

And I think it was easy to guess the lengths Erika would go to, especially given her stubborn refusal to take the detective privilege. There is one and only one reason she benefits from not having it. Battler isn't a moron. He had to have been able to suppose.

Your last statement isn't exactly true. Erika didn't tell Battler that she abandoned all of her detective privileges, just the detective proclamation. With that alone she still was the detective and still wasn't allowed to kill anyone. Which is why both Battler and Beatrice looked surprised later.
And Battler has been deceived before, I wouldn't really consider him a person that would never be deceived. Just because he became the GM in EP6, it doesn't mean that he suddenly shed off his gullibility.

On point 2, Battler did try to force Erika to take the detective privilege, he even threatened to kick Bern out of the gameboard, but ultimately that wouldn't work. Even supposing Battler made Erika accept to use detective authority, Bern would have removed her from the game.

On point 1, What Chrono said is something that was actually said by Erika herself. If she didn't use that "murder" trick Battler's "gift" would have been totally useless. Which is why Erika remarks that Battler has been sly for giving her only 3 rooms to seal. Incidentally Dlanor seems to be of the same opinion and she accuses Battler to be blinded by his own pride.
As to why exactly 3 I don't think it's such a big coincidence. It had to be a number less than 6 and 1 or 2 are too few. "3" is such a conventional number for "tries" that it's very likely to be picked by anyone.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Your last statement isn't exactly true. Erika didn't tell Battler that she abandoned all of her detective privileges, just the detective proclamation. With that alone she still was the detective and still wasn't allowed to kill anyone. Which is why both Battler and Beatrice looked surprised later.
And Battler has been deceived before, I wouldn't really consider him a person that would never be deceived. Just because he became the GM in EP6, it doesn't mean that he suddenly shed off his gullibility.

If he continues to be remarkably stupid after ascending to a level "above the others," then it's terrible writing. He can't possibly remain that stupid, every game, every time. It makes him useless as a protagonist.

On point 2, Battler did try to force Erika to take the detective privilege, he even threatened to kick Bern out of the gameboard, but ultimately that wouldn't work. Even supposing Battler made Erika accept to use detective authority, Bern would have removed her from the game.

Why didn't he kick her out? It seems like he was never very serious.

On point 1, What Chrono said is something that was actually said by Erika herself. If she didn't use that "murder" trick Battler's "gift" would have been totally useless. Which is why Erika remarks that Battler has been sly for giving her only 3 rooms to seal. Incidentally Dlanor seems to be of the same opinion and she accuses Battler to be blinded by his own pride.

Dlanor has been known to be acting for Erika but not necessarily in her best interest. What exactly is sly about 3 rooms over 4, or 2?

As to why exactly 3 I don't think it's such a big coincidence. It had to be a number less than 6 and 1 or 2 are too few. "3" is such a conventional number for "tries" that it's very likely to be picked by anyone.

If we are honestly relying on coincidence then ep6 was pretty terribly written. You're essentially saying "he gave 3 because Erika needed exactly 3, and had no particular reason himself to select that number." That may be true, but it's awful writing.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

If he continues to be remarkably stupid after ascending to a level "above the others," then it's terrible writing. He can't possibly remain that stupid, every game, every time. It makes him useless as a protagonist.

Come on, even if he gets a bit more knowledgeable during the games and used to fighting them, that doesn't necessarily mean his intelligence should magically increase. I think it very likely that Battler planned most of EP6 to happen, but it would be in character even if he didn't.

Also, it's not just stupidity. This is being gullible and overly trusting. Remember, this is the same Battler that fell for Beato's troll in EP3 and now apparently trusts her again. The games have hardened him up a lot, but he's still the same person he was before. It's possible that he didn't think Erika capable of murder, so the idea didn't even cross his mind. I know I didn't see it coming.

Originally Posted by Renall

Why didn't he kick her out? It seems like he was never very serious.

Battler needed Erika as an opponent to finish this game. He didn't really have a choice.

Originally Posted by Renall

If we are honestly relying on coincidence then ep6 was pretty terribly written. You're essentially saying "he gave 3 because Erika needed exactly 3, and had no particular reason himself to select that number." That may be true, but it's awful writing.

No, that's not what he's saying. Think about it. 3 is actually the best number of rooms for him to give. If he chooses 4 or 5 rooms, then when more impossible murders come, Erika can just suspect the 1 or 2 people left over of being the culprits, and Battler won't be able to use any pieces except for those. If he just gives her 1 or 2 rooms, it would hardly seem like a handicap at all. Remember that his stated reason for giving Erika those was to make her think she had an advantage when she didn't, so that he could take her off her guard. Just giving 1 or 2 wouldn't have had that effect when 6 closed rooms had already been presented so early on.

[Jan-Poo]

I subscribe to everything that chrono said but I want to put emphasis on that "a level above the others".

That's what Battler thought in my opinion. He's always thought that being the Game Master was an enviable position, that at that point he couldn't possible lose, that it was " a level above the others".

But that was false. This is exactly the "pride" Dlanor was talking about. The way I see it Battler didn't transcend his own self. He's the same as before, he just gained knowledge he didn't gain a band of intellect +6.
Not like he's stupid actually, he's simply gullible and shortsighted for certain matters. I'd say that what would be actually terrible writing would be to make one character's personality completely change just because he earned some knowledge.

[UsagiTenpura]

Yet simply the idea that Battler, a person who figured the entire truth about everything, is unable to find a way out of a closed room half the internet fans found ways out of, is very hard to believe.

Unless Ryukishi looks down on us as much as Featherine does (and thought we couldn't find ways out of it) it's ridiculously hard to make us believe he would make a character who knows the truth less competent then us.

Also Beato had such an easy time to solve it, sorta showing if you know the truth it shouldn't even have been a problem. The moment she was "reborn" she had a solution in hands.

[Renall]

When has an excess of pride been one of Battler's flaws? He has had a degree of certitude in the non-existence of magic, but he was also right.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Come on, even if he gets a bit more knowledgeable during the games and used to fighting them, that doesn't necessarily mean his intelligence should magically increase. I think it very likely that Battler planned most of EP6 to happen, but it would be in character even if he didn't.

Also, it's not just stupidity. This is being gullible and overly trusting. Remember, this is the same Battler that fell for Beato's troll in EP3 and now apparently trusts her again. The games have hardened him up a lot, but he's still the same person he was before. It's possible that he didn't think Erika capable of murder, so the idea didn't even cross his mind. I know I didn't see it coming.

Are you kidding me? If I hadn't known ahead of time, I absolutely would have seen it coming. I'm not trying to belittle anyone, as I'm sure it's really more of an either/or depending on how other people view Erika, but I've been too suspicious of Bern for far too long to believe anything, and the "won't take the detective proclamation" was a screaming red flag.

Battler needed Erika as an opponent to finish this game. He didn't really have a choice.

Then why even raise the suggestion? What was his angle? Nobody even seems to care, just touting how good Erika's "trick" was. When, I should point out, it completely failed. Are we forgetting that whole Beatrice thing? Or that the Logic Error had a solution? Or that Battler's setup of the scenario permitted Kanon to be an option? Are we going to declare that was an accident? Wow, great resolution. Beatrice accidentally discovers a key Battler accidentally left lying around.

No, that's not what he's saying. Think about it. 3 is actually the best number of rooms for him to give. If he chooses 4 or 5 rooms, then when more impossible murders come, Erika can just suspect the 1 or 2 people left over of being the culprits, and Battler won't be able to use any pieces except for those. If he just gives her 1 or 2 rooms, it would hardly seem like a handicap at all. Remember that his stated reason for giving Erika those was to make her think she had an advantage when she didn't, so that he could take her off her guard. Just giving 1 or 2 wouldn't have had that effect when 6 closed rooms had already been presented so early on.

No, actually, 2 is the best number of rooms for him to give her. Any concession of retroactive moves to Erika is a considerable handicap. 3 just coincidentally allows her to do all of the things she did, exactly the way she did them.

So why did Battler select 3? This is pretty important!

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I subscribe to everything that chrono said but I want to put emphasis on that "a level above the others".

That's what Battler thought in my opinion. He's always thought that being the Game Master was an enviable position, that at that point he couldn't possible lose, that it was " a level above the others".

I don't think he thought this after he became GM though. He talks to Beatrice at one point about the witch's side and how it's like playing that game where you put knives in a barrel and try not to stab the mustache man inside. That's pop up pirate btw. He basically admits in this scene that he thought that it's a huge advantage to be on the witch's side before, but he says that he realizes that's ridiculous now that he's on it. He understands that any random shot could hurt him, while the human side just has to fear the red.

[sacul097]

I don't think anyone has proposed this theory (but there are so many pages on this thread that it would take forever to check them all) But maybe the "woman" is beatrice but also Kinzo before becoming the family head. Think about it. She has the head's ring and although it was stated that kinzo is dead at the start of all games, people having multiple names was not, and in fact could not be, spoken in red. So maybe the "man" they new as kinzo died and is living in "his" real persona as beatrice. It has been stated that Zepar and Furfur are the biggest clue we have, but I really hate the shkanontrice theory simply because of the fact that it is too obvious. So maybe the trap is kinzo. The family could of had kinzo pose as a man because it would look better if a man was the Ushiromiya head. And the man could be nanjo, idk.

If this theory is ridiculous then I'm sorry but I have a massive headache and I'm probably not thinking straight.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura

Unless Ryukishi looks down on us as much as Featherine does (and thought we couldn't find ways out of it) it's ridiculously hard to make us believe he would make a character who knows the truth less competent then us.

In a way, that's true, and it's why I think Battler did plan for it to happen as it did.

Still, back in the question arcs, a lot of people managed to stay ahead of Battler most of the time. At the very least, I'm sure many of us could have thought of better things to make Beato repeat than Battler did. So I place his intelligence at about that of the Watson: very, very slightly below the average reader. Even with his extra knowledge, if the problem is a simple logic problem, the knowledge won't necessarily help him much.

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

Are you kidding me? If I hadn't known ahead of time, I absolutely would have seen it coming.

If you did hear about it ahead of time, then you're in no position to talk. Sorry, but everything looks easier if you know the answer first. I think this is the problem with your whole argument here. Of course Battler was stupid in retrospect. That's not the point.

[Used Can]

I wouldn't call it stupidity. Battler was really trying to get on good terms with Erika. He did mention something like that when he mentioned how in his previous games with Beato, he had thought of themselves as enemies, but Beato had never considered themselves to be so. Thus, he didn't want a game between enemies, but a game in which both of them tried the best to win. Whether he or Erika won, for Battler it was the same, since in the end, it brought the same result he wanted for the game.

Now, I'm not saying he's not naive, because he definitely is, but that's just Battler for better or worse.

[UsagiTenpura]

So I place his intelligence at about that of the Watson: very, very slightly below the average reader.

I fully agree with that, even if it's frustrating to think Watson found the truth before us...


Completely unrelated but after all the references to her novel I was thinking it'd be interesting if the new "possibly girl" was to be based on Agatha Christie.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura

Completely unrelated but after all the references to her novel I was thinking it'd be interesting if the new "possibly girl" was to be based on Agatha Christie.

To be honest I thought Erika looked like a younger Agatha Christie.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

If you did hear about it ahead of time, then you're in no position to talk. Sorry, but everything looks easier if you know the answer first. I think this is the problem with your whole argument here. Of course Battler was stupid in retrospect. That's not the point.

You don't get to tell me what I would have noticed. Because you don't know anything about me.

If I had not known ahead of time, I would have noticed. It is obvious enough that people who did not believe a word out of Erika or Bernkastel's mouth would have been inclined to take that perspective. I was suspicious of everything about those two before I knew anything about ep6. The spoiler confirmed I was right to be suspect, and the translation confirmed my suspicion that people who did not believe them would find threads that do not make any sense to the Battler/Erika interactions.

You shouldn't underestimate people's capacity to doubt after five to six episodes of constant betrayals.

[DaBackpack]

Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura

Yet simply the idea that Battler, a person who figured the entire truth about everything, is unable to find a way out of a closed room half the internet fans found ways out of, is very hard to believe.

Unless Ryukishi looks down on us as much as Featherine does (and thought we couldn't find ways out of it) it's ridiculously hard to make us believe he would make a character who knows the truth less competent then us.

Also Beato had such an easy time to solve it, sorta showing if you know the truth it shouldn't even have been a problem. The moment she was "reborn" she had a solution in hands.

One of Van Dine's rules (don't remember each one) says that there can only be one detective. To be honest, it's not much saying that we found multiple solutions because really, look at how many people are contributing on this forum.
I doubt that each of us, individually, could get this far. With multiple detectives, it becomes a group effort and therefore much easier.
With that in mind, Battler did pretty well. I would agree that he is pretty naive but his big problem is that he gets flustered easily.

For all we know, he could be pulling a biiiiiig EP3-Beatrice on us and is just playing along. We can't say for sure that he didn't plan the events in advance. As was mentioned before (sorry I don't remember who) but maybe this logic error was all a ruse to lead to Beatrice's revival. Who knows.

Or, perhaps, I remember one of Ryukishi's interviews saying that his own readers have figured out individual mysteries, but haven't been able to tie them together. As he said, they have found "the key," but need help putting it into the "keyhole."

After all, how do you know when you have found "the key?" You can't until the solution has been revealed and there is no information that conflicts with your theory. Maybe Battler has a false key and still continues to struggle? These are all possibilities.