[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Sute443]

Originally Posted by Renall

Of course, that assumes it was a natural disaster. If so, it would paint Ange's search for "the truth" in a very different light, as well as her character. Basically, it would make her the hardheaded one who couldn't accept the truth everyone else knew, and Eva was trying to protect her somehow. But that's contingent on knowing what the "disaster" really was. We don't know, and Ange and Okonogi are strangely evasive on the matter.

How would it really change Ange's character? The only character who a natural disaster could theoretically have killed in Episode 3 was Jessica (and Battler, if we assume that we can't trust what he saw). Everybody else who died was confirmed dead with the red text before midnight. All other deaths were murders.

Of course, that doesn't mean Eva knew what happened. I favor the theory that Battler's accusation, in combination with Hideyoshi and George's deaths, drove her insane.

Originally Posted by ijriims

For a landslide or any major catastrophe to happen exactly at 00:01 Oct 6 were most unlikely if it was randomly caused.

For a landslide or any major catastrophe to happen exactly at 00:35:23 on Oct 6 would be extremely unlikely. For a landslide or any major catastrophe to happen exactly at 13:55:22 on Nov 26 would be extremely unlikely.
A landslide or any major catastrophe happening would be extremely unlikely no matter when it happened. The only reason one happening at 00:01 Oct 6 seems any more unlikely is because it is a time humans put more importance on. It really isn't any less likely than it happening at any other time.
Like Jan-Poo said, chaos theory doesn't apply to this example. Humans just aren't big enough that their actions over a 2-day period could avert a natural disaster.

[Ithekro]

I'd point out that the historical typhoon dumped over ten inches of rain on Guam just a few days before Oct. 6th. Ten inches would be enough to loosen earth, or cause a flash flood. Mixed with high winds...there are probably plenty of disasters waiting to happen. It is just a matter of figuring out what could cause so much damage that the bodies are gone.

In a way, Ange's trip to the island in 1998 is like the detectives and Rena's trip to Hinamizawa in the 2000s...looking for clues of what happened despite the official story. The problem here is...we don't have the official story to compare with what Ange finds.

[ijriims]

I admit that I am wrong, since 2 days' time would not be enough to affect the weather by random human actions.

For such a landslide (if it was a landslide) to happen in any particular time, the probability is zero. What should be relevant was the probability of the landslide happening WITHIN a period a time.

We knew that somehow the event happened after 00:00 Oct6 and before the police came to the island for investigation. This time period should be less than 9 hours of time (considering the captain arrived at Rokkenjima at 9:00am and no one showed up since the disaster had already happened) This time period of 9 hours were extremely short compared to these 34 years after the mansion was built. The fact that the probability this natural disaster hit within this 9 hours of time and killed the remaining family memebers but not before or after were so small that one should suspect it was not natural at all. (I am talking about Poisson distribution here).

Still, the probability for the event to occur still exist. If the disaster was truly random and natural, then I should say the whole Ushiromiya family was doomed from the beginning since even the murders did not occur, they were going to die whatsoever. And no one should have predicted a truly random disaster at all. How could someone expect a landslide would occur on 6 Oct even though it had not occured during the past 34 years of time? So unless someone had a premonition (Final Destination?), the whole family could never escape the disaster in any kakera.

I suggest we should try to think about under what situation the police would classify the event as "accidents" in EP3:

1. The police would not find any body since all things were buried under the rock and debris. And they identified the disaster as naturally caused. So it was a misfortune and the responsibility lied on the construction firm for the mansion? (How could they find Eva was mysterious in this case..)

2. Someone or some organizations bribed the government (Eva? Tokyo?) not to classify the event as accidents?

3. They found the bodies (pieces), and found the evidence that the disaster was not naturally caused, but since they lack any direct evidence to sue Eva and being unable to figure out what was going on (uncooperative Eva), so they dropped the case as accidents?

Any more ideas? We do not know how the police classify the case in other episode though...

(I suppose they did find the bodies inside the garden shed in EP1, just that the children's bodies were nowhere to find (pieces, jawbone...).

Maybe the whole disaster include both bomb inside the mansion and a landslide. So anyone remained inside the mansion would be killed and then evidence would be covered by the landslide triggered (unintentionally, the murderer did not foresee a landslide but since the bomb caused the soil to loosen up and landslide ensued?).

[hodil]

I got a question.

In episode 4, it was revealed that the family members of the deceased received some gold in a vault. The pass code (that mysterious number) was sent to them.

Well, whose gold was this? was it part of the 10 tonnes? If so, why didnt Eva notice it?

[Marion]

Originally Posted by hodil

I got a question.

In episode 4, it was revealed that the family members of the deceased received some gold in a vault. The pass code (that mysterious number) was sent to them.

Well, whose gold was this? was it part of the 10 tonnes? If so, why didnt Eva notice it?

It's not explained IIRC

[Jan-Poo]

It wasn't gold, it was cash. Nanjo's son clearly state they were banknotes. about 100 million yen.

If the other 20 or so vaults all have the same amount of money then the total amount is about 2 billion yen. approximatively 10% of the whole gold value.

[Sute443]

Well, since it's been a few days since anything was posted here, I'll post something that occurred to me a while ago...

From the perspective of Battler actually trying to win the game and defeat Beatrice, it's a pity that Battler hasn't figured out how to use Hempel's Raven to attack. By the end of Episode 4, he could have used it to disprove the witch's claim, which I'm pretty cure would have given him the victory.

Beatrice claims that the murders are part of a ritual, described by the Epitaph on the portrait, aimed at her resurrection. Yet the ritual doesn't really get pulled off properly very often. You'd think that a great witch would be able to pull off a little resurrection ceremony, right?

In the first game, the Fourth Twilight's victim was already dead, so he couldn't have counted for the "kill" part. In the second game, there was no Third Twilight at all (unless you count the exchange in which Battler agreed with Maria about Beato's existence and guilt). Then there's the issue with the timing of Nanjo and Kumasawa's deaths, which the witch's claim would put at occurring before the Fourth Twilight. In the third game, one of the First Twilight's victims was dead, and there was no Third Twilight. In the fourth game, well, it might have been pulled off accurately here. We don't know.

Essentially, Battler could claim that if the witch's argument is true, then the ritual should be pulled off without fail each time. Yet in at least the first three games, the ritual, as presented by the witch's argument, did not occur as it should have.

[Jan-Poo]

That's a valid argument. However Battler can't win just by that, since from Ep4 it appears that he needs to explain any mystery to win. In other words even if Beatrice couldn't explain how witches did it, that would become a stalemate and not a victory.

That would be perfectly okay for Lambda, and even for Battler if he was planning a long term battle. but in that very moment Battler wanted to win at all costs to get back to Ange.

[rogerpepitone]

In the fourth game, the 5th-8th twilights all gouged the head, and the 4th gouged the chest.

[Marion]

"Third Twilight" is really just an interval when a letter comes with the wax seal, telling the reader to "Praise my Name" or some variation of that. As long as the letter comes then the Twilight occurs, whether you read it or not.

The only time I don't remember such a letter appearing is in EP 3 and 4.

[Renall]

The gross inconsistencies in the magic side stories has never been addressed. I assume Battler just doesn't think it's that important. And it probably isn't, really. Since his assumption is it all covers up what really happened, and he doesn't believe it anyway, why should he care if it's inconsistent?

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Renall

The gross inconsistencies in the magic side stories has never been addressed. I assume Battler just doesn't think it's that important. And it probably isn't, really. Since his assumption is it all covers up what really happened, and he doesn't believe it anyway, why should he care if it's inconsistent?

Well yeah it covers things up. But I wonder how much does it really cover up. After all, ignoring magic scenes also ignores a very large chunk of the story.

Still I wonder if Battler realizes that, otherwise he pretty much ignored many key moments (Kyrie saying she had a miscarriage, Shannon being okay with dying since she has a ring from George, George willing to give up everything for Shannon, Rosa's willingness to protect Maria at all costs, etc etc)

[Sute443]

Originally Posted by Marion

"Third Twilight" is really just an interval when a letter comes with the wax seal, telling the reader to "Praise my Name" or some variation of that. As long as the letter comes then the Twilight occurs, whether you read it or not.

The only time I don't remember such a letter appearing is in EP 3 and 4.

When did one appear in Ep. 2? Are you talking about the Witch's Letter III? That didn't strike me as Third Twilight-ish, but I suppose that could work...

Originally Posted by Renall

The gross inconsistencies in the magic side stories has never been addressed. I assume Battler just doesn't think it's that important. And it probably isn't, really. Since his assumption is it all covers up what really happened, and he doesn't believe it anyway, why should he care if it's inconsistent?

The inconsistencies are important in that they are evidence that the magic side stories aren't really what is happening and Beatrice is arguing that the side stories are what is happening. Battler should be going after any weakness in Beatrice's arguments. At the very least, it would force Beatrice to go on the defensive for a little while and maybe draw out some more red.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Sute443

The inconsistencies are important in that they are evidence that the magic side stories aren't really what is happening and Beatrice is arguing that the side stories are what is happening. Battler should be going after any weakness in Beatrice's arguments. At the very least, it would force Beatrice to go on the defensive for a little while and maybe draw out some more red.

They're not narratively important. Battler will recognize any inconsistency or detail necessary to uncover the truth when the time comes to magically (no pun intended) realize what happened. For the players the inconsistencies are very important, but Battler quibbling over every inconsistent detail in the presentation of each episode would needlessly bog down the story.

Basically, Battler isn't fighting full-bore because it would be annoying to read through. The inconsistencies are clearly hints to the reader trying to figure it out. Just trust that Battler will note them when the time comes... if they're really that important anyway.

[ijriims]

The inconsistency is not an inconsistency to pieces but only to Meta-characters.

Piece-Battler never knew about the red texts so the epitaph was a ritual made sense to Piece-Battler in each episode.

Inconsistency only appeared as we knew events from different games and red texts as well. What was important was that the culprit wanted to make the whole murders like a ritual to resurrect Beatrice, this was a consistency.

Anyway, even meta-Battler had observed this inconsistency, there was a long way remained. He showed that epitaph as a ritual could not be the cause enabled him little to escape from the murders, as to prevent the tragedy one must know all the truth first.

[Arachanox]

In the underground dungeon scene, it seems that Kanon and Shannon know about the existence of the previous games, since they note that it's rare for both of them to live after the first twilight. Also, Shannon recalls the Golden Land. Is it possible to consider that they have powers akin to Rika from Higurashi, or do anti-fantasy people simply deny this scene since Battler wasn't there?

Otherwise, you must accept the existence of magic.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

Is it possible to consider that they have powers akin to Rika from Higurashi

If they do, then it explains a lot about their behaviour.

[Arachanox]

If they don't, then the scene is definitely fake. How many oddities about Shannon/Kanon can be better explained assuming they are time-psychic like Rika? If there are a lot of them, perhaps we can form a good argument for the possibility that they are time-psychic.

If not, then the scene is just fake and we can move on.

[Jan-Poo]

do anti-fantasy people simply deny this scene since Battler wasn't there?

There are a lot of odd things that happen in that chapter. it's not just because Battler isn't there, the whole scenario is a magic scene. Kinzo still alive, goats, Kanon cuts metal bars with his loci, and they watch George and Shannon fighting against demons through a sort of magic mirror.

Either magic exists or you should admit that the possibility that what happens there isn't real is quite high.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

If they don't, then the scene is definitely fake. How many oddities about Shannon/Kanon can be better explained assuming they are time-psychic like Rika? If there are a lot of them, perhaps we can form a good argument for the possibility that they are time-psychic.

It would just explain how fatalistic Kanon is, and how Shannon seems so willing to die in every game...

I don't know... I just like the idea of there being some kind of magic in the real world... there was in Higurashi. Sort of. Not that that's a good indication.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

There are a lot of odd things that happen in that chapter. it's not just because Battler isn't there, the whole scenario is a magic scene. Kinzo still alive, goats, Kanon cuts metal bars with his loci, and they watch George and Shannon fighting against demons through a sort of magic mirror.

Every magic scene has to contain some hints, though.