[Anime] Umineko - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[Karlson]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

This isn't necessarily true. Niether the anime nor any other original medium showed conclusively without a doubt that these events happened in such an order with a 5 minutes timeframe. The way it was presented seemed to have hinted more that all these were scenes of what everyone was doing at the EXACT moment of the clock hitting 12mn.

Ah I figured so. Yeah it was a pretty crazy theory but an interesting one that I thought may have been possible.

[MeoTwister5]

Originally Posted by Karlson

Ah I figured so. Yeah it was a pretty crazy theory but an interesting one that I thought may have been possible.

This was initially my impression but I realized two main things that pointed away from this that was more apparent in the anime episode:

1. The clock tolls while the scenes were being played.
2. 5 minutes is entirely too short for anything to be done.

The problem is that the scenes helps establish alibis for pretty much everyone. If the presentation is trustworthy then the killings could not have occurred at 12mn by any of the 18 because the scenes show everyone doing something. If in fact one of them was the murderer, it could only realistically happen anytime between 12mn and the time the bodies were discovered. We don't know anything of what occurred between that time, and that time itself is enough for someone to get the job done.

[risingstar3110]

Ah btw, another thing that may important: Maria's rose.

Why some1 needs to steal a harmless rose , and why they does so if it does not connecting with the plot?

If the letter really from Beatrice (sound like so), then can she look through time and space and see that's the way she can approach Maria alone?

If the letter is not from Beatrice, then we can assume that spot is the only place that can spot where Kinzo threw the ring. So the rose may attract attention from people (in case Maria want to protect the rose when it's rain and the kids decide to stay with her). If Maria's alone then it's fine since she is short and she can't see through the rose bush.

Notably there could be more than one ring, and from now on the letter from Beatrice could come from both Beatrice or the one who got Kinzo's ring

[Karlson]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

The problem is that the scenes helps establish alibis for pretty much everyone. If the presentation is trustworthy then the killings could not have occurred at 12mn by any of the 18 because the scenes show everyone doing something. If in fact one of them was the murderer, it could only realistically happen anytime between 12mn and the time the bodies were discovered. We don't know anything of what occurred between that time, and that time itself is enough for someone to get the job done.

Well one thing is confirmed, when the bodies were discovered it was concluded they have been dead for at least 6 hours. Too bad I never got to see what time they discovered the bodies at.

[Unknown Soldier]

The golden butterfly was following Shannon through the mansion. She hears or sees something behind her and starts, then she sees nothing behind her and continues. Then she dies. If Beatrice is a witch, maybe she can change her form into that of a butterfly. The OP all but confirms this since you see Beatrice at the end (after Maria's insane grin) dissolving into a mass of golden butterflies.

Of course that implies that some magical force, possibly Beatrice herself in another form, is the murderer as opposed to a human. That would also imply the murders occurred at midnight or very close to midnight.

However, there is something else I noticed while examining the 2nd episode closely. Shannon is shown twice walking through the darkened mansion at midnight. Both times, she is holding a kerosene lamp to light her way in her left hand. Careful examination of her hand (it's really hard to see) really looks to me like she is not wearing the ring on her left index finger. I can post screencaps if you want, or you can just go look yourself. That means, later on she decided to put the ring on, possibly much later, then she was killed. Her left hand clearly has the ring on the index finger in the shed. This implies SHE WAS NOT KILLED AT MIDNIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY MUCH LATER.

[Mirakuru]

Originally Posted by Karlson

Well one thing is confirmed, when the bodies were discovered it was concluded they have been dead for at least 6 hours. Too bad I never got to see what time they discovered the bodies at.

I think the clock struck 6 AM when Kanon and Genji were walking together and when Natsuhi woke up. Afterwards, Natsuhi got ready, talked briefly with Genji, Kanon, Kinzo, and Eva & Hideyoshi, and the group walked over to the shed which held all of the dead bodies. I'm assuming this all took less than an hour, and given what Dr. Nanjo said about the bodies being dead for over six hours, the murders should have happened immediately after midnight. D: But everybody has alibis for what they were doing around midnight... except for Eva and Hideyoshi, right? They did say they left the inheritance discussion shortly after midnight, but weren't Krauss, Rudolf, Kyrie, and Rosa talking at/abruptly before midnight? So why weren't Eva and Hideyoshi still there?

Ahh... right now I have way too many questions floating around in my head. =P If the culprit(s) is/are indeed one of the household members and not a supernatural figure, how did he/she/they kill everybody and get all of the bodies in the shed without anybody noticing? And I was a bit surprised that Natsuhi didn't wake up when the bloody handprints were being put on her door... her migraine must have been pretty bad. XD;; I'm also curious as to how Rudolf accurately predicted his own death that evening. And what did he want to tell Battler?! I'm also looking forward to Maria's reaction next episode to the murders. =P Even though Rosa was killed, I can assume that she might say something like "I told you so." I also wonder what the rest of the surviving characters will do... will they stick together (if they all decide to stay in one room... that'll definitely get complicated)? Become paranoid and start an all-out war? Start worshipping Beatrice? Oh gee, my anticipation for episode I-III is building up~ XD

[Unknown Soldier]

Originally Posted by Mirakuru

But everybody has alibis for what they were doing around midnight... except for Eva and Hideyoshi, right? They did say they left the inheritance discussion shortly after midnight, but weren't Krauss, Rudolf, Kyrie, and Rosa talking at/abruptly before midnight? So why weren't Eva and Hideyoshi still there?

I noticed this as well watching the 2nd episode a second time. That is a serious flaw in Eva and Hideyoshi's alibi. The fact that the flaw is so clear, however, also raises the possibility it's a red herring that was put in to mess with us. Phoenix Wright would have saw right through it and yelled "OBJECTION!" and slammed his hands down on his podium and demanded to know exactly when they went to bed, and then produced his evidence they were, in fact, not at the discussion when they claimed they were, but this isn't a Phoenix Wright game and I think this is either actually very important or it's a blatant red herring because Ryukishi07 enjoys messing with our heads.

[Mirakuru]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

I noticed this as well watching the 2nd episode a second time. That is a serious flaw in Eva and Hideyoshi's alibi. The fact that the flaw is so clear, however, also raises the possibility it's a red herring that was put in to mess with us. Phoenix Wright would have saw right through it and yelled "OBJECTION!" and slammed his hands down on his podium and demanded to know exactly when they went to bed, and then produced his evidence they were, in fact, not at the discussion when they claimed they were, but this isn't a Phoenix Wright game and I think this is either actually very important or it's a blatant red herring because Ryukishi07 enjoys messing with our heads.

I agree. XD And the fact that their entire 'family,' as in Hideyoshi, Eva, and George, are alive makes it a little too obvious. =P And since Eva has already shown some hostile personality traits and even lingered around after Natsuhi left Kinzo's room... she may very well be a distraction from the actual culprit(s).

[cicero]

I just finished watching up to two. It's too late at night for me to think coherently, so I'm just going to throw these two out there:

Perhaps Maria is (or has) the key. She does, after all, go to Beatrice's portrait in ep. 2 and complain about how no one will believe her. Perhaps the six who were killed were the ones she was feeling most hurt by: that is, Rosa, Klaus (who repeatedly said the letter was "insane"), and Rudolph (who says the same thing). The remaining ones who were killed were the ones who were closest in association to these: Rudolph's wife, Klaus's chosen servant Gouda, and Klaus's wife (Shannon-hastily substituted because Natsuhi obtained the scorpion medal and was in the room right next to her). Battler and Jessica are protected because they appear to have been the nicest to her and agreed that Beatrice existed.
Further, Maria is the one who got the letter, obtained the umbrella, and tied the mysterious rose (which might have been removed by Beatrice to make sure Maria would be out there). Kyrie even says to Battler at one point "Maria is the Key" (to knowing who "Beatrice" is, but this feels like hinting to me).
Basically, Maria has some sort of connection with the witch and her whims are helping to direct the deaths.

I'd also guess, based on the second twilight in the epitaph poem, that the next ones to go are eva and her husband, killed by someone else among the survivors because they think eva and hideyoshi are behind the previous killings. But this is just a guess.

Also, Unknown soldier, technically it's possible that whoever killed her put the ring on her finger, but I agree she probably died later. Maybe the blood on the door was the blood-stained hands of the witch trying to break through to Natsuhi, but eventually she gave up and went for Shannon, much later in the night.

Yes I know I just went full-out supernatural, but it seems so logical...

EDIT: pf. Three posts while I was typing mine. Well, my suspicion is that exactly the kind of red herring reasoning being discussed above leads to someone deciding to kill Eva+Hideyoshi out of paranoia...thereby fulfilling the second twilight.

[Ithekro]

This is going to be one of those long and fun threads...I can see it coming already.

[xKeen]

I rewatched the first episode,maria already had an umbrella,but at 20:50 when battler was shouting for maria,theres a figure with ANOTHER white umbrella.My guess is another person is on the island since there are no guards/watchmen near the jetty.

[Paranoia833]

Originally Posted by Mirakuru

I'm also curious as to how Rudolf accurately predicted his own death that evening. And what did he want to tell Battler?!

More curious is why Rudolf seemingly did nothing to avert his oncoming death. I mean he doesn't particularly like his sibling I don't think, so I doubt he'd just let them kill him. I also don't think he was trying to manipulate Battler or Kyrie in this instance, since he really had nothing to gain from doing so, in fact that statement would do nothing but attract suspicion.

From the way he said it and his manner I imagine he has some guilty secret, saw something that confirmed it had come back to haunt him, and was too guilt-ridden to make any serious attempt to escape and merely warned his immediate family (albeit in a half-hearted way that probably won't do anything). Whether or not that was connected to what actually killed him, well who knows?

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

2. 5 minutes is entirely too short for anything to be done.

The problem is that the scenes helps establish alibis for pretty much everyone. If the presentation is trustworthy then the killings could not have occurred at 12mn by any of the 18 because the scenes show everyone doing something. If in fact one of them was the murderer, it could only realistically happen anytime between 12mn and the time the bodies were discovered. We don't know anything of what occurred between that time, and that time itself is enough for someone to get the job done.

With modern weaponry, this is entirely possible. For example, the killer might be expert in poison gas. Release poison gas to all the victims and, since it doesn't seem that they had the special breathing mask, they're all pretty much dead. Then move them all to the shed within 6 hours, entirely possible. Mutilate then draw the demon circle with the blood. (The killer must be an artist) Guns with silencer could also be a solution. Take this into account, nobody has alibi.

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

However, there is something else I noticed while examining the 2nd episode closely. Shannon is shown twice walking through the darkened mansion at midnight. Both times, she is holding a kerosene lamp to light her way in her left hand. Careful examination of her hand (it's really hard to see) really looks to me like she is not wearing the ring on her left index finger. I can post screencaps if you want, or you can just go look yourself. That means, later on she decided to put the ring on, possibly much later, then she was killed. Her left hand clearly has the ring on the index finger in the shed. This implies SHE WAS NOT KILLED AT MIDNIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY MUCH LATER.

Remember that since the faces of the victims are mutilated, only DNA check could confirm their identity which I don't think even exist for their time. In other words, one or more of the victims might still be alive and these are the actual killers.

Originally Posted by Mirakuru

Ahh... right now I have way too many questions floating around in my head. =P If the culprit(s) is/are indeed one of the household members and not a supernatural figure, how did he/she/they kill everybody and get all of the bodies in the shed without anybody noticing? And I was a bit surprised that Natsuhi didn't wake up when the bloody handprints were being put on her door... her migraine must have been pretty bad. XD;; I'm also curious as to how Rudolf accurately predicted his own death that evening. And what did he want to tell Battler?! I'm also looking forward to Maria's reaction next episode to the murders. =P Even though Rosa was killed, I can assume that she might say something like "I told you so." I also wonder what the rest of the surviving characters will do... will they stick together (if they all decide to stay in one room... that'll definitely get complicated)? Become paranoid and start an all-out war? Start worshipping Beatrice? Oh gee, my anticipation for episode I-III is building up~ XD

With modern weaponry, it's all possible. Considering that they're all rich enough to buy some, everyone is a suspect.
There should be nobody walking around between 12-6AM. If there is one, then this person should've been attacked and is one of the 6 victims.
I don't think smearing blood at the door would make any loud noises.

[MeoTwister5]

With modern weaponry, this is entirely possible. For example, the killer might be expert in poison gas. Release poison gas to all the victims and, since it doesn't seem that they had the special breathing mask, they're all pretty much dead. Then move them all to the shed within 6 hours, entirely possible. Mutilate then draw the demon circle with the blood. (The killer must be an artist) Guns with silencer could also be a solution. Take this into account, nobody has alibi.

There's actually a rebuttle for this but I can't use it for this thread since it's something of a spoiler. I'll make sure to answer it when the series has reached the point where I can use it.

Remember that since the faces of the victims are mutilated, only DNA check could confirm their identity which I don't think even exist for their time. In other words, one or more of the victims might still be alive and these are the actual killers.

The problem really wasn't if DNA testing existed in 1986, it's that being trapped on the island means that the only person who's remotely capable of an autopsy is Nanjo, and being on the island he's also a possible suspect.

With modern weaponry, it's all possible. Considering that they're all rich enough to buy some, everyone is a suspect.
There should be nobody walking around between 12-6AM. If there is one, then this person should've been attacked and is one of the 6 victims.
I don't think smearing blood at the door would make any loud noises.

The servants shifts actually has them patrolling the mansion even during the night into the wee hours of the morning, its really the guesthouse that's questionable if anyone was up and about. So far Shannon being one of the patrolling servants was attacked and killed while Kanon was not. This leads to the assumption that the killer didn't kill based on opportunity, rather chose the victims for a personal selection basis.

[Alaya]

Umm, please remember one thing too. The story is set in the year 1986. Some of the elaborate device/weapon might not exist yet.

[D3monicWolv3s]

I really don't believe any of the family members are capable of carrying 6 bodies from the house to that shed alone. Even if its two people doing it. They had to kill, move the bodies, (possibly clean up), mess up Natushi's door, and write the symbol on the shed. Seems like to much work for one person to me. I'm imagining 3-8 people to make this whole thing happen. I'm curious if there were signs of a struggle/damage/blood left inside the house. If it was Beatrice, I can't imagine her moving the bodies herself. Unless she used magic, or had help.

As for Rudolfs death, maybe the others who died knew as well. Rosa didn't look well before hitting Maria, but that could be because of Krauss from the previous discussion. Anyways in horror movies characters try to stay together if they know they are going to die, thinking they have a better chance at survival. (well typically the smart ones stay in a group... the ones who run off typically die, which is odd since Eva and her husband left, and didn't die)

[Marion]

Originally Posted by xKeen

I rewatched the first episode,maria already had an umbrella,but at 20:50 when battler was shouting for maria,theres a figure with ANOTHER white umbrella.My guess is another person is on the island since there are no guards/watchmen near the jetty.

I'll just post here to tell you that other person is Kanon :P

[Tamad]

The fact that both the supernatural and logical theories are plausible and make sense don't exactly make this easy, but I that's also what makes it fun, and it shows just how well they created this mystery. I wouldn't have it any other way.

One theory that piqued my interest is the chance that one of the "murdered" isn't exactly dead and actually was the murderer. Thing about that is, out of all six of them, what would any of them gain from killing members of their own family, where is the motive? The only one who I can think of with any suspicion is Rudolf, and in a sense he could have told Battler that "he was going to die tonight" to raise some paranoia and suspicion later on, since Battler looks like he's going to be a main player in this mystery. That aside, pulling off something like this would have required tons of preparation and planning beforehand, and Rudolf would have had to known and researched the epitaph and how everyone would move before or the short time frame they were on the island.

If that were the case though, he definitely would have to be working with Eva and Hideyoshi, as all three of them seem to be the most interested in the inheritance. I've always thought that it would be easy for Eva to dress up as Beatrice and fool Maria into thinking she was talking to the witch herself. If this were all true though, then what about the doctor and his autopsy report? It all doesn't really add up, but I'd figure it wouldn't hurt to throw out that possibility.

On a different note, I sort of agree when some say the butterflies are Beatrice. They could just be Beatrice's "eyes" to observe the course of events that's happening around the mansion, as she uses those to project or record what's happening so she can view them from wherever she is on the island. I'm only saying this because I still strongly disagree on the idea of supernatural killings as of right now.

Before I forget, I also like the idea that Maria is the "key". Not that I would have liked it if that were the case, but it's a theory that makes a lot of sense.

[Karlson]

Originally Posted by Unknown Soldier

However, there is something else I noticed while examining the 2nd episode closely. Shannon is shown twice walking through the darkened mansion at midnight. Both times, she is holding a kerosene lamp to light her way in her left hand. Careful examination of her hand (it's really hard to see) really looks to me like she is not wearing the ring on her left index finger. I can post screencaps if you want, or you can just go look yourself. That means, later on she decided to put the ring on, possibly much later, then she was killed. Her left hand clearly has the ring on the index finger in the shed. This implies SHE WAS NOT KILLED AT MIDNIGHT, BUT POSSIBLY MUCH LATER.

If I go by my rather flawed theory on what time all those events happened that might explain why she wasn't wearing the ring that precise moment she was looking out the window.

She could've been killed much later tho since I have reason to believe she was not supposed to be one of the sacrifices that night but ended up being one in Natsuhi's place since Natsuhi had the medallion.

Originally Posted by cicero

I'd also guess, based on the second twilight in the epitaph poem, that the next ones to go are eva and her husband, killed by someone else among the survivors because they think eva and hideyoshi are behind the previous killings. But this is just a guess.

Yeah I think those 2 might be next as well although looking back at the Kinzo/Natsuhi conversation in the study has me thinking it could be them as well.

Nanjo I believe is gonna be the next victim after when the gouging phase starts happening. As mentioned it'll be hard to kill someone by gouging their leg/knee as all that can really kill them from that is bleeding to death (something I'm sure the doctor can easily treat) unless

a) Nanjo is the culprit (I'm actually pretty suspicious of him too) or
b) Nanjo is killed off before the knee and leg phase

Originally Posted by Tamad

One theory that piqued my interest is the chance that one of the "murdered" isn't exactly dead and actually was the murderer. Thing about that is, out of all six of them, what would any of them gain from killing members of their own family, where is the motive? The only one who I can think of with any suspicion is Rudolf, and in a sense he could have told Battler that "he was going to die tonight" to raise some paranoia and suspicion later on, since Battler looks like he's going to be a main player in this mystery. That aside, pulling off something like this would have required tons of preparation and planning beforehand, and Rudolf would have had to known and researched the epitaph and how everyone would move before or the short time frame they were on the island.

If that were the case though, he definitely would have to be working with Eva and Hideyoshi, as all three of them seem to be the most interested in the inheritance. I've always thought that it would be easy for Eva to dress up as Beatrice and fool Maria into thinking she was talking to the witch herself. If this were all true though, then what about the doctor and his autopsy report? It all doesn't really add up, but I'd figure it wouldn't hurt to throw out that possibility.

If we were in fact to suspect the killer being among those 6, I think it should be noted as well that Ghoda's face seems far more...destroyed compared to the others (this could be blamed on the camera angle and the dark tint tho), especially the teeth. We also never got a good look at Shannon's face either. Problem is both of those 2 lack a known motive to gain at this current time so it seems like a stretch to assume they're still alive at best

I do agree on Rudolf tho since him predicting his death comes off as really strange but then you have to take into account if he's still alive right nowthan what of his wife Kyrie? She's another one of the victims

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Karlson

If we were in fact to suspect the killer being among those 6, I think it should be noted as well that Ghoda's face seems far more...destroyed compared to the others (this could be blamed on the camera angle and the dark tint tho), especially the teeth. We also never got a good look at Shannon's face either. Problem is both of those 2 lack a known motive to gain at this current time so it seems like a stretch to assume they're still alive at best

Uhm I think a little knowledge from the VN could help here.

Rudolf's, Kyrie's and Rosa's faces are completely destroyed
Gohda's face is almost completely destroyed but the mouth is still visible
Shannon's and krauss's faces are partially destroyed but they are still recognizable.

I didn't check if this actually matches with what is shown in the anime though.