2011-04-05, 08:49
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Link #22521 |
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Member
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: United Kingdom.
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Good answer. Of course, we'd have to imagine that the goat men and the stakes may be the same people. We'd also have to infer that more than one person is represented as beatrice.
One thing I liked was that since schrodinger's cat is a 'hard to understand "science" theory, the introduction of multiple fictions was introduced. Still, like I said, we have fiction and mystery, and I believe either could be considered the truth; so I'm not here to disagree. Yeah, and doublethink for the win. |
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2011-04-05, 11:22
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Link #22522 | ||
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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However I can give you all the things that I was able to "collect" during that though process. I basically tried to analyze the situation from the perspective of a competent group of witch hunters in 1998 trying to find all the clues about what happened. However some parts require a bit of speculation. In other words there are some things that must be known by the general public but we are not made to know. -The Rokkenjima incident involved an enormous explosion that left a crater 1km wide and several dozens of meters deep. -The reported time of the incident was 5 October 1986 24:00 or 6 October 1986 0:00 ^- Possible speculation: how much precise was this time? Couldn't be actually a few seconds or a minutes or two off? Is there a possibility that the actual time was different but it was approximated to support the theory of a man made event? -Fact: there is 1 chance on 1440 that a random event would happen at exactly midnight (not considering seconds). Unlikely but far far from being a miracle. -Several witnesses reported that Kinzo used to claim that he created a special device that would make the whole island explode and that he used that as an incentive for his mad financial gambling. Of course nobody thought he was serious, but after the incident it became a serious possibility. Some witch hunters believe that such device existed. However since this is the only element suggesting that this device existed, there is apparently no better evidence than this. -There was a secret military base on Rokkenjima during world war II, and Kinzo was dispatched there at the time. Remnants of that base still exist on the other side of the island. -Apparently the official assessment of the situation is that it was an "unfortunate incident". No one was convicted for a crime by the police and the case was archived. -Very early after the incident a bottle with a message inside was found by the police. It was a massive manuscript describing an implausible story where a witch named Beatrice performs a serial murder using magic killing all the Ushiromiya and the servants in the end. Everyone dies in the end. The police archived the bottle as a proof thinking that there could be some connection with the incident. It was however forgotten. -Several years later a fisherman found another bottle with similar contents and apparently written by the same person. The first message was therefore reexamined. The two messages were then shown to the public and they caused an uproar. The witch hunt phenomenon started from here. -Both stories are told from the perspective of Maria Ushiromiya in a diary-like manner. However it was confirmed that the calligraphy wasn't Maria's. ^-It should be possible to confirm that the writing style doesn't match with anyone of the Ushiromiya. -The details included in the stories strongly suggest that the writer knew the Mansion and the family very well. -As a consequence of the uproar caused by the discovery of those messages and the spreading of theories that saw Eva as the culprit the case was reopened, however nothing was found against Eva and so it was closed again. -There is a secret house called Kuwadorian on the other side of the islands. Several people, including Kawabata, can confirm that someone lived there until 1967. Rumors say that it was a woman named Beatrice, Kinzo's lover. -A photograph of this woman exists, it could be a fake but it is very unlikely. This photo was found in the hand of an artist who claims it was given to him by Kinzo in order to make a painting based on it. Ange can confirm that a painting based on that photo was exposed in the great hall of the mansion. ^-Supposing that the story told in EP7 was true, it should be possible to confirm that a high officer of Salò republic existed and that he had a daughter named Beatrice. Both should have been reported as missing at the same time. A submarine should have been reported as missing or lost in action at the same time. -Fact: Several tons of gold were reported as missing during the second world war from Italian banks. As of today the vast majority of that gold wasn't retrieved. It is speculated that Nazi stole it and diverted it into swiss bank accounts. -No corpse nor piece of any corpse was found, the only exception is what is thought to be a piece of Maria's mandible. The few teeth remaining match with the dental print of Maria's. -Eva is thought to be the only survivor of the incident. She was found in the Kuwadorian. -Eva refuses to say a thing about what happened on those two days. ^-It is unlikely that Eva planned everything. If she did she would have planned a story to tell afterwards. She either doesn't remember a thing, or she wants to forget, or she doesn't want the truth to ever be disclosed. -Apart from all the Ushiromiya, confirmed deaths are: Nanjo and Kumasawa. Sadly we have no 1998 proof of the existence of Gohda, Kanon, Shannon and Genji. ^-Official reports of the victims of the incident would most certainly not contain "fukuin names". It is most probable that the reported victims were: Terumasa Nanjo, Genji Ronove, Toshiro Gohda and Sayo Yasuda. From an exchange of Jessica and the Goats in EP8 it can be inferred that the existence of the servant Kanon isn't confirmed anywhere. ^-However there are probably a few witnesses that can confirm that Jessica Ushiromiya brought her boyfriend to the last cultural festival she attended on Niijima. That boy is supposedly the Kanon that appear in the stories found in the bottles. ^-It should be possible to confirm the existence of Sayo Yasuda. Since she attended the school at Niijima her name should figure on different documents and there should be a lot of witnesses that can remember her. ^-It should be possible to confront Sayo's calligraphy with the one found in the messages. The calligraphy was probably altered but an expert should still be able to tell if they are from the same person. -The same calligraphy can be found on Maria's diary in Ange's possession. -The same calligraphy was used for several letters addressed to the "victims" of the incident. They were all sent shortly before the incident. The addresses were fake and later the letters returned to the fake senders which are close relatives of the deceased. ^- If what Masayuki Nanjo said was the truth, it should be possible to retrace some of those letters and check the bank accounts. However there shouldn't be that many of them. All the Ushiromiya from direct bloodline have no other surviving relative with the exception of Ange who only received one letter. Hideyoshi has no close relative. Likewise Shannon doesn't have any relative nor friend. That only leaves out: Nanjo, Kumasawa, Natsuhi, Kyrie, Genji, Gohda. With the exception of the first two the rest has no alive descendant, so you could only speculate that they have siblings who received a letter (it is unlikely that they have parents still alive). -Battler Ushiromiya survived as well escaping to the military base, but this is not known to the public. ^- If Eva was the only one you could still think that she was there by chance, but with Battler too and on another route it is almost certain that they knew about the incoming disaster and that they tried to flee from it. However if they knew, it is very unlikely that they would flee without their close relatives. In other words the chance that they were already dead is pretty high. So the real problem here is not what caused the disaster, but what prevented everyone to escape from it. ^- From 1998 or beyond DNA testing would allow to confirm that Hachijo Tohya is definitely Battler Ushiromiya. Supposing that there are still Kyrie's and Battler's belonging preserved it should be possible to prove that Battler is actually Kyrie's son. ^- Unfortunately the chance that some of Sayo Yasuda belongings still exist is very remote. In that remote case it should be possible to confirm that she was related to the Ushiromiya. ^-All that has been said about the Ushiromiya's financial situation is probably all true. It would be very easy to confirm and Ange firmly believe in that story. So Rosa really cosigned a loan (It should be therefore very easy to find Maria's dad's name), Krauss really made poor investments (to say the least), Hideyoshi's company was about to get overtaken, and Rudolf was about to lose a trial that was going to cost him a lot of money. ^-Rudolf was most certainly a swindler and engaged in several different illicit activities. There are too many reports of this being true, so there's no surprise that he was put under trial in america and that he was going to lose. If he went as far as to kidnap a baby then it's certain that he had a criminal mind. That being said, none of those crimes are as bas as murder and even less as bad a massacre. ^-Kyrie was most certaintly Rudolf's accomplice in several of Rudolf's crimes. There is also the fact that she grew up in a yakuza family. We should assume that her view of human life and her willingness to kill are not those of an average Japanese. Then again the fact that she escaped from that family could suggest that she hated that way of life. -Because of the above the theory of Rudolf and Kyrie being the culprits of the Rokkenjima tragedy became very popular for the joy of Ange. ^-It should be possible to confirm whether Kyrie and Rudolf actually knew how to handle weapons. -^It should be possible to confirm that Kinzo possessed firearms. ^-For what concerns Krauss, while it is almost certain that his economic situation was bad, nothing can be said about him being on the verge of recovering. Should we actually trust that he suddenly was going to actually gain money? -Eva's family situation was the least problematic. In the end Hideyoshi wasn't going to lose anything from an economic standpoint, he was only going to lose the leadership of his company. He'd still get the same share of the revenue as he got until that point. ^- That being said it is suggested that Hideyoshi begun his career as a smuggler and he had therefore connections in the black market. His connection with the yakuza is however probably made up since he was probably just a small fish without any importance. Being a restaurant tycoon in present times he might have completely lost any contact he had at that time. -A person named Furudo Erika existed and she disappeared on October 4 after sailing with a pleasure boat. ^-Consider these facts: only an idiot would go out to the sea when a typhoon was announced. It is suggested that Erika's past made her skeptical towards any hope to find love and happiness. Bern seems to favor girls with suicidal tendencies as her pieces. It is therefore extremely probable that Erika wanted to die and succeeded. The theory that she somehow washed on Rokkenjima is however extremely far fetched. ^-The real people involved in the incident could be different from how they were described. For example it is known that George was shown in a very bad light by the mass media. The Goats in EP8 suggest he was an hikikomori, the total opposite of that boy with a bright future that was shown in the stories. George was also described as exceptionally good with children, however Ange who was a very young child at the time never liked him. Maria was shown as very bright and lovable child (when she's not creepy) however it is a fact that she never made a single friend at school and apparently only her creepy side was seen by her peers. Conversely Kinzo could have been shown in a worse light. Battler suggests that Kinzo actually loved his grandchildren and that he was capable of joking. The fact that he could make tall talks and not be taken too seriously suggests that he wasn't that stern. This is completely at odd with what was said twice in Beatrice's story: Kinzo doesn't like Maria. So there is a chance that Yasu presented a heavily romanticized version of Rokkenjima with the cousins (whom she loved) idealized and the adults's flaws overexaggerated. ^- If that gold ingot that was taken by that bank representative really existed, it should be possible to confirm it. Although a single ingot doesn't prove much, since Kinzo could have simply made it. - There is absolutely no confirmation of the gold's existence from the 1998 perspective. However if the gold really blew up, it should be possible to find traces of it on the site of the explosion and below the surrounding waters. - In EP4 it was made clear that Eva had Kinzo's ring. Okonogi even said that the artist that made it confirmed it was the real thing. ^-That ring in Eva's hands suggests that the epitaph was solved (probably by herself). There is a chance that that ring was simply taken from Shannon but it's not as likely as the other hypothesis. Shannon certainly didn't carry that ring on herself, and she probably wouldn't tell a thing if no one solved the epitaph. Whatever plan she had in mind, if someone solved the epitaph she should have stopped it. This is what she certainly wrote in her stories. ^- It should be possible to confirm that no one had seen Kinzo alive from 1985 to the day of the tragedy. Ange should remember that she didn't see him on the last family meeting (this would also explain why she doesn't remember the usual halloween party, since she'd be only 4 the last time she participated). - The fukuin oprhanage's existence is confirmed, however no shady activity or dark secret related to it was found. finally I guess it can help the timeline comprehensive of all the inputs of the later episodes. Note however that not all the dates are reliable: Quote:
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Last edited by Jan-Poo; 2011-04-05 at 11:51. |
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2011-04-05, 12:41
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Link #22523 | |
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BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
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However, just about everyone who would have close, intimate personal contact with Kinzo on a day-to-day basis died in 1986. It's even possible Eva and Battler never happened to see him during that weekend, which means even they might not be able to confirm anything. Consequently, we're left to conclude that unless it was well-known even beyond the island that Kinzo had not been physically seen by anyone (at least anyone not involved in a potential coverup), it is completely irrational to speculate that he was actually dead. Mind, it is possible that his disappearance from view was a well-regarded fact, but we don't know that it is, and even if we take the siblings' phone calls about it as true, that merely proves they didn't see him, not that no one had. Why do we believe it? Because the message bottle stories and subsequent tales use it as a plot device. However, there is no reason they have to; notice Battler's tale in ep6 is explicitly mentioned to ignore Kinzo's life-or-death status and not focus on it as a major issue. Of course, we also have Battler's ep8 presentation of Kinzo very much alive; technically we also have the Bern/Lion presentation where Kinzo is stated to be present at the alt-1986 conference, where his views on the succession are made clear. His behavior is so starkly different that it seems an immediate indication that the story is false, and while that may be true, why do we think this Kinzo is any less likely than the office-cowering ghost of prior episodes? The sole evidence Kinzo is dead is that some stories tell us he is, and Battler's narration never encounters a living Kinzo directly. But of course, Battler's perspective is only as reliable as the reality in which his story is set, and if Kinzo is dead "in fact" in that story, then Battler's behavior will operate in that fashion. However, that doesn't prove Kinzo-Prime was at all the same. Bluntly, we can never prove Kinzo wasn't alive until the very moment of the incident. We actually can't prove he was present at all. Arguably the only reliable witness who can clearly state whether anyone was brought to Rokkenjima on Oct. 4 was Captain Kawabata, who would have seen everyone he brought and anyone who came to meet the boat (which, I believe, is usually listed as the arriving family, Jessica, Kumasawa, and Gohda). There might also be off-island records of servant shifts, which would pin any other servants present there. However, there's basically nothing that proves Krauss, Natsuhi, or Kinzo were there other than the expectation that they should be.
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2011-04-05, 13:35
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Link #22524 |
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Renall you are forgetting Manon, Runon and Renon. Well it doesn't even need to be them, but everything suggests that there's always been 2 or 3 fukuin servants working for the family other than Shannon.
Those servants have been working until the very day before the conference and as far as we know they are still alive and well. And all of them were living on the very same Mansion for the duration of their service. The second thing that you are forgetting is that there is evidence that Kinzo wasn't conducting such a secluded life until the end of 1984. There is evidence that he never failed to meet the family members during their visits, not only at the family conferences but even on other days like when that time that they discussed about George's marriage proposal described in EP2. There is also evidence suggesting that it wasn't unusual for him to stroll around the garden. Surely servants other than those who died might have seen him and they can report if there was a significant change in Kinzo's appearances from a certain point. You can find those servants and ask them who was the last to have seen Kinzo and when. To that you can add Ange, who apparently remember Kinzo although not very well, so maybe with some efforts she can remember if she saw him in 1985 or not. Granted that wouldn't prove by itself that Kinzo died, but it could be seen as a good circumstantial evidence.
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2011-04-05, 14:02
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Link #22525 |
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The True Culprit
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: The Golden Land
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Uh...so what? Manon, Runon, and Renon weren't One-Winged Eagle servants, so they're not going to get to see Kinzo even if he was alive, what with the office-cowering.
Moreover, who cares if Kinzo wasn't living a secluded life prior to 1985? He wasn't claimed to be dead then.
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2011-04-05, 14:19
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Link #22526 |
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The thing is, there are two ways of looking at the scenario, and only one is falsifiable, and the one that is isn't the useful one. Essentially we can phrase the statement two ways:
The second statement, by the way, is impossible to falsify. We can get proof if someone comes forward, but we can never disprove it; basically we'd have to demonstrate that everyone who exists or existed didn't see him at any point after his supposed death. For every person who didn't see him, we know only that they didn't, not that there wasn't someone else who did. Granted, the circumstantial evidence point is there, but that's really all it is: Circumstantial evidence. One could just as easily argue from circumstantial evidence that Kinzo alone could have been the culprit, set the explosives to blow the mansion, and slipped away in secret. One's initial reaction to that would be to say "That seems quite unlikely," but I could probably dig up enough evidence to support it. On hard facts it's equally as likely as his death being a conspiracy, arguably less so as I could argue Kinzo alone was involved in the planning and execution.
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2011-04-05, 15:06
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Link #22527 |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2010
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[QUOTE=Jan-Poo;3559043]I've been thinking about doing something like that myself but I gave up because I really can't find a way to make everything match with every single hint in a satisfying manner.
yep it hard to put the clues together without knowing who is the culprit. well its so hard to find out the name of the culprit ep7 just told us about the culprit of the epitapt murder.maybe there's multiple culprit but i don't have facts to support it. |
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2011-04-05, 15:21
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Link #22528 |
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Renall this circumstantial evidence is as much as circumstantial as the evidence of Kawabata suddenly stopping to deliver goods to the Kuwadorian, no more no less.
What I'm proposing to check if verifiable elements match or don't with the theory described in the stories that Kinzo was dead before 1986. If we can prove that servants used to see Kinzo around until a certain point in time and then suddenly no one ever saw him again I think that's not a completely irrelevant element. Then the fact that someone actually saw Kinzo after the supposed time of his death and he can testify it, would disprove the theory of Kinzo being already dead, and I wonder how you can tell me that this would be irrelevant.
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2011-04-05, 15:27
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Link #22529 |
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Reread what I said, because you're just repeating it. Only someone coming forward and saying they saw Kinzo can prove he was still alive, but if no one can so prove it, it does not mean he was dead. I'd also be careful to avoid pulling circumstantial evidence about R-Prime from the stories, since as we all know you can pretty much put anything in the stories.
For all we know, Kinzo was rather frequently seen, just not by anyone now alive and able to confirm it. It seems unlikely, but it's possible. I think that's part of what Battler was driving at.
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2011-04-05, 15:33
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Link #22530 | |
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Why don't you read what you quoted at the beginning then?
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There is only a very limited number of people still alive that can confirm or debunk this so it's definitely possible to check. Of course I don't think it is necessary to specify that you can't ask anything to the dead. It was implied that it's "no one had seen Kinzo among those who can still talk"
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Last edited by Jan-Poo; 2011-04-05 at 15:52. |
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2011-04-05, 15:51
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Link #22531 |
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BUY MY BOOK!!!
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You said it should be possible to confirm no one had seen him. That's not true. You can confirm only that, for each individual person you ask, he or she had not seen him during that period of time. You can confirm that someone had seen him, if any such person exists. But you can never confirm that nobody saw him, unless you propose that the Witch Hunters ask every person on earth. And then there's the problem that he may still have been seen, just by dead people.
In other words, you can confirm he was alive with just one person's testimony. But the only thing that can confirm he was dead is if someone who wouldn't mistake Kinzo for anyone else saw his dead body. Hell, even if no one on earth saw Kinzo for those years, it doesn't mean he was dead. That's the falsifiability angle I'm getting at.
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2011-04-05, 16:03
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Link #22532 | |
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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So in other words you're just nitpicking at how I phrased my statement, sorry for not being precise, but the falsifiability angle is what I was getting to.
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Therefore I think it should be worthwhile to check. Then they can confirm that they hadn't see Kinzo in the time he was theorized to be dead, they might even confirm that Kinzo suddenly stopped showing up from their perspective or they can flat out deny the theory. Either way you get some useful information. Even in the worst case scenario where they hadn't seen Kinzo for ten years (despite working in the Mansion), you'd still get to know something more about Kinzo. P.S: seriously though it is common practice to say that no one as seen person X after time Y when after an inquiry no one can testify he saw him.
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2011-04-05, 16:06
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Link #22534 | |
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Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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2011-04-05, 16:12
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Link #22535 |
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Ten minutes is a bit too much, but two or three should be a given.
That's why I brought this up. Naturally if we then learn that the explosion actually happened at 0:02 and 45 seconds the man made theory would still be plausible. But at the same time the chance that it just randomly happened would double.
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2011-04-05, 16:14
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Link #22536 | |||
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The police who responded to the disaster should've said something interesting about the condition of the blast or what debris was located other than the few things we're actually told. Yet we know nothing about this. Why not? Does everyone on R-Prime know and we just don't? Did the police adamantly refuse to make a statement at all? That's interesting information in and of itself... but it's not there. Yet, as you said, some things seem unlikely to have not been checked. Surely somebody asked the surviving servants about the people on the island they worked for, and at some point, surely someone would have said something about Kinzo one way or another. But again, since we're not told, we don't know whether anyone has even inquired. Quote:
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2011-04-05, 16:24
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Quote:
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The clock in the basement was a bit off by one or two minutes. The explosion happened with such a margin of error. People on Niijima and other islands close enough heard the explosion. Those who checked the time reported it was at midnight by simplicity, because they all had some slightly different time in their respective clocks. The newspapers then all reported it happened at midnight as all the witnesses claimed. (And because a big explosion that happens at exactly midnight is a lot more interesting and sells more). A few days later a more in depth inquiry establish a 100% accurate time for the explosion. However at that point it is already too late. For the whole world it happened at midnight. While the true time is reported nobody bothers or care about a single minute off. two or more years after, Witch Hunters would probably just decide to ignore this small error because they want to think there is some great conspiracy behind the incident.
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2011-04-05, 17:21
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Link #22538 |
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Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
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How could the police determine the time of explosion more accurately?
Is there any mention of the Rokkenjima-Niijima distance? (AFAICT, Battler implies the boat trip will be 20 minutes early Ep. 1; the boat is later mentioned have a top speed of 40 knots, and the speed of sound is about 11 nautical miles per minute. Putting that together suggests a delay of about a minute between the explosion and when people on Niijima would hear it, assuming that the typhoon didn't disrupt the sounds.)
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2011-04-05, 17:55
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Link #22539 |
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別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Yeah that's also true.
As for how the time of the explosion could be determined more accurately I'm thinking about seismographic detection. An explosion of that magnitude should have triggered a response and Japan is practically all covered being a region with high risk of earthquakes. The izu island should be especially monitored since they are all volcanic. Naturally this is just an assumption but I think it's pretty plausible.
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2011-04-05, 22:51
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Link #22540 |
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It's assumed to have happened on Oct. 5/6. There must be some reason why people believe that, instead of pretty much any other time. I mean, why can't it have happened on the afternoon of the 4th? Unfortunately, no reason is given. Do people know, or is that just their assumption?
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