Brexit Vote

[Botan_TM]

In meantime in preparation to No-deal Brexit:

UK-Japan trade talks sour after letter from Hunt and Fox

The UK’s latest attempt to persuade Japan to agree a quick post-Brexit trade deal has backfired after officials in Tokyo reacted with dismay at British tactics.
[...]
Although Japan acknowledges that progress has naturally slowed while their UK counterparts have been pulled into preparations for a no-deal Brexit, officials say there have been several occasions when British negotiators have come to the table without the necessary specialists to take negotiations forward.

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by James Rye

And Labour split. Well, lets see if some Tories split as well in the coming weeks once hard brexit becomes more and more likely to happen.

Its less of a split and more of splinter, tbh. Among the defectors, the only one I can say that had very good reasons for leaving Labour is Luciana Berger, who's treatment by the leadership had been shameful. Everyone else is just looking for an opportunity to be in a better position in the post-Brexit political scene.

The situation is still developing, but it does seem some Tory ministers are planning on jumping to the Indies. Says it all on how fucked the political landscape is when we already have a Centrist party (the LibDems) but their reputation and electability is so bad it is wiser to start a new Centrist party instead.

Its not exactly the time nor the place, but given how much of a catastrophe a No-Deal situation will be, people poising themselves to be in the "I wash my hands of this situation" are likely making a good bet for the future.

Then again, given that the new Independent party is a) not a party (yet) and b) doesn't have any meaningful policy positions, just a lot of fluff

Anyways, back to reality where No-Deal is becoming more of certainty

Originally Posted by Botan_TM

In meantime in preparation to No-deal Brexit:

UK-Japan trade talks sour after letter from Hunt and Fox

The UK wants a deal to put in place of the EU-Japan trade agreement, which came into force on February 1. It has already given up doing this by March 29.

Japan has agreed to extend existing trade terms for the duration of Britain’s planned transition period with the EU. But in case of a no-deal Brexit, the EU-Japan agreement would no longer apply to the UK.

Despite 18 months of talks, Japan and the UK have failed to make significant breakthroughs on a new trade deal.

The differences of position, which the Hunt/Fox letter acknowledges as “challenging issues”, centre around Japan’s refusal to accept a simple “cut and paste” of the terms of the EU-Japan agreement ratified last year.

Instead, its officials have been told to negotiate as they would any other trade accord, and to seek better terms from the UK than Japan won through its long haggle with the much larger EU.

So yeah, a preview of things to come. Worth remembering that the UK had made use of EU diplomats and negotiators for the period it was in the EU quite extensively, to the point where the UK doesn't actually have a seasoned crop of diplomats that are able to handle and manage such a situation.

Another reminder that the EU-Japan deal that just came into effect took nearly 5 years from start to finish, and had not even been a guarantee until 2016 when talks really turned intense and it took a year until there was any significant breakthrough. So the idea that they would just "cut-and-paste" the same agreement from the EU-Japan deal was really naive. But what would one expect from the current lot in charge, eh?

---

Its sadly going to get much worse before it starts getting better. May is going to dig in her heels, going to run the clock until March 28th, 23:59 where she will (again) put her deal up to a vote, practically threatening everyone into voting for it this time.

Corbyn is going to bid his time as well, since he will expect that once the dust and ash has settled, he can remake Britain in the way he envisions. Brexit, as much as a disaster it is, will allow him the path to make the country he wants. Or so he would hope.

The Independent party will be formed out of all the people who either washed their hands out of being pro-Brexit, former Brexiteers who suddenly realised they were wrong/forgot what they once stood for, and opportunists smelling a chance to have a top position in the country's government post-Brexit.

The LibDems will continue being irrelevant, the SNP will call for an independent Scotland, the Irish Border is going to be a mess, Gibraltar is going to the Spanish, and God help anyone who is sick, poor or in the middle class going forward.

Only 6 weeks left, and everyone in charge either wants to play games, or just wait it out to the final second.

[Dextro]

Brexit is sounding like a badly written anime at this time. Looks like we're 10 episodes into the 13 episode season and new plot points are still being thrown out without any being resolved. And then the writers rush the ending and end up turning the show into a catastrophe.

[Ithekro]

"Art imitates life"

[Anh_Minh]

YouTube

https://youtu.be/ncHAwux70u8

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Fighting stupidity with stupidity.

[James Rye]

3 Tories gone from May, doubt she cares but having people flee her party alone shows how much she lost control, plus now her lead is only 8 votes so she really needs everyone of her own party and the DUP vote for her deal which will never happen due the Backstop she herself put into the deal. If I had money left over I would bet on hard Brexit. This stuff is going so crazy I am not even sure the parliament can agree on an extension, that is the EU would accept it if they hear no plans from the british side anyway besides that the EU is to blame for everything.

[Sheba]

I am feeling a little sorry for May. She'd not be in that position of public humiliation if Farage actually took his responsibilities and didnt run away like a fucking rat from the mess he started.

[Xellos-_^]

GB is now facing a bad choice (may's deal), very bad choice (no deal) and humiliating but brave choice (brexit cancel and another vote).

Does May really want to go down in History as the PM that crash England and Wales out of the EU and presides over the disintegration of GB (Scotland and N.I. will leave GB over this)?

[James Rye]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

GB is now facing a bad choice (may's deal), very bad choice (no deal) and humiliating but brave choice (brexit cancel and another vote).

Does May really want to go down in History as the PM that crash England and Wales out of the EU and presides over the disintegration of GB (Scotland and N.I. will leave GB over this)?

Lets not forget Gibraltar, there is no way they can survive with a hard border and a continent and an ocean away from UK. Spain knows when UK crashes out the chances that they get Gibraltar, alone for UK to reduce costs, will rise.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

GB is now facing a bad choice (may's deal), very bad choice (no deal) and humiliating but brave choice (brexit cancel and another vote).

Does May really want to go down in History as the PM that crash England and Wales out of the EU and presides over the disintegration of GB (Scotland and N.I. will leave GB over this)?

But it doesn't depend on May alone, does it? All it takes is enough MPs who don't believe it'll be that bad (and it probably won't be) and who don't want to be seen as caving in to the Remainers (whatever they may think of Brexit).

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

But it doesn't depend on May alone, does it? All it takes is enough MPs who don't believe it'll be that bad (and it probably won't be) and who don't want to be seen as caving in to the Remainers (whatever they may think of Brexit).

i think among the MP, the majority are for remaining only a small percentage are diehards who want to leave whatever the cost.



the question now is how does May want to be remember in the history books.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Cancelling Brexit is the only choice left. The only sane choice, anyway.

I still hold out hope that May could go down in a blaze of glory as the one who did what had to be done, but I don't know enough about her to know if she had it in her to do it.

Any other choice? Riots and actual deaths in the streets. The fact that Britain can consider hard Brexit at all is a failure of the government. The idea that doing what's best for the country is somehow a bad thing.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

i think among the MP, the majority are for remaining only a small percentage are diehards who want to leave whatever the cost.



the question now is how does May want to be remember in the history books.

No, the question is how many MPs depend on being seen as Brexiteers for re-election. They don't have to worry about history books.

[SeijiSensei]

If May had taken seriously the crisis Brexit posed, she would have convened an all-party conference to come up with a solution. Instead she kept everything in Tory hands, and once her Brexiteers bolted, she was left on an island without a majority.

Are the LibDems tainted from their time in coalition with the Tories?

[James Rye]

34 days left. Man, to think people thought that there would be a signed deal months ago and everyone would prepare for the leave itself with new laws and whatsoever. Instead the european nations are passing hard brexit laws and the UK still discuss with itself what it wants from brexit.

[DracoS]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Cancelling Brexit is the only choice left. The only sane choice, anyway.

I still hold out hope that May could go down in a blaze of glory as the one who did what had to be done, but I don't know enough about her to know if she had it in her to do it.

Any other choice? Riots and actual deaths in the streets. The fact that Britain can consider hard Brexit at all is a failure of the government. The idea that doing what's best for the country is somehow a bad thing.

But what kind of membership would we have if we stayed? It pretty clear that what we want and were the EU is going is badly out of line as it is.. and failing to leave now will add fuel to EU hate like crazy.

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

All it takes is enough MPs who don't believe it'll be that bad (and it probably won't be)

This is sort of tangential to your point, but a no-deal Brexit being bad or not depends on where you are in society now.

Upper class people? Probably not that bad, but the economic hit will be felt.

Middle class people? Pretty bad from a daily life compared to now

Lower class people? Those who need urgent medication? The NHS? British Expats living in the EU/married to EU citizens? EU citizens living in the UK? For the people of Northern Ireland and Gibraltar?

It's not going to just be bad, its going to change the way they go about their lives for the foreseeable future.

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

If May had taken seriously the crisis Brexit posed, she would have convened an all-party conference to come up with a solution. Instead she kept everything in Tory hands, and once her Brexiteers bolted, she was left on an island without a majority.

There are so many small mistakes done over the course of the past 2 and a half years, that you could see how they all added up to the eventual disaster unfolding now. A wiser and more able leader would have foreseen the need for the creation of a coalition that would have the majority of government and opposition agree on what would be the direction of the country for such a decision, or at the very least would have taken into consideration the difficulty in the realization of leaving the EU in such a short amount of time and considered delaying triggering Art. 50 until a general idea was agreed upon.

Alas, May was not that leader. And had there been a leader, they didn't come to the forefront precisely because everyone competent and able to do so realized how much of a mistake Brexit was.

Looking back on it, from where May stood, the opportunity to be Prime Minister presented itself, and she thought she would be the heroine that would help the nation navigate through this period into safety and be written down in history, even if she failed, as the one person who tried to save the UK. Instead, history will look down on her as being weak and made critical mistakes that led to the country plunging further into chaos. c'est la vie

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Are the LibDems tainted from their time in coalition with the Tories?

Considering that the newly formed Independent Party is polling better than them, yeah

The taint is less of the agreement of the coalition and the actions that they took during that time, in particular raising student loans in direct opposition to what the party stood for and promised their electoral who were (at the time) mostly students. The consequences of breaking a core tenant that LibDems voters considered to be important (Student fees) has resulted in them becoming unable to find any room other to fade into the backdrop. Shame, since they are the only (major?) party that is Anti-Brexit, but voting for them now is a wasted vote. There is little trust left now in them.

Originally Posted by James Rye

34 days left. Man, to think people thought that there would be a signed deal months ago and everyone would prepare for the leave itself with new laws and whatsoever. Instead the european nations are passing hard brexit laws and the UK still discuss with itself what it wants from brexit.

Man, looking back now

Even the most cynical predictions ended up being optimistic when faced with this reality lol. We should have already signed a deal and agreed on the final pointers, but instead, the deal agreed upon is not agreed upon by the UK, and the UK has no idea what it wants out of any of this.

Only about a month to go fellas. weeeeee

[judasmartel]

Sorry if I'm too lazy to back read, but I can't believe it's been 2 years since the UK voted to leave EU. From what I read about why Leave won, my impression was those who voted Leave wanted to go back to the time of "Glorious Britain" as I call it, and are very concerned about immigration.


I realize I am not that familiar with EU politics, but if their real concern is immigration, especially with the Middle Eastern refugee crisis going on and populism gaining support worldwide at the time, I know it's not that easy but can't UK just put tighter restrictions on immigration or would the EU (and the world) hold that against them (cuz racism lul) for supposedly being heartless towards refugees displaced by the wars in ME?

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

This is sort of tangential to your point, but a no-deal Brexit being bad or not depends on where you are in society now.

Upper class people? Probably not that bad, but the economic hit will be felt.

Middle class people? Pretty bad from a daily life compared to now

Lower class people? Those who need urgent medication? The NHS? British Expats living in the EU/married to EU citizens? EU citizens living in the UK? For the people of Northern Ireland and Gibraltar?

It's not going to just be bad, its going to change the way they go about their lives for the foreseeable future.

Yeah, but it won't turn into Venezuela overnight either. It may even get to keep Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Sure, it'll be (as always) worse for the poor, the sick, the immigrant, and the melanin-endowed, but how many MPs fit into even one of those categories?

Man, looking back now

Even the most cynical predictions ended up being optimistic when faced with this reality lol. We should have already signed a deal and agreed on the final pointers, but instead, the deal agreed upon is not agreed upon by the UK, and the UK has no idea what it wants out of any of this.

Only about a month to go fellas. weeeeee

That does raise the possibility that the best way to predict what they'll do is to figure out what the absolute worst they could do is.

So it's a toss up between prolonging the negotiations and declaring war on the rest of us.

Originally Posted by judasmartel

Sorry if I'm too lazy to back read, but I can't believe it's been 2 years since the UK voted to leave EU. From what I read about why Leave won, my impression was those who voted Leave wanted to go back to the time of "Glorious Britain" as I call it, and are very concerned about immigration.


I realize I am not that familiar with EU politics, but if their real concern is immigration, especially with the Middle Eastern refugee crisis going on and populism gaining support worldwide at the time, I know it's not that easy but can't UK just put tighter restrictions on immigration or would the EU (and the world) hold that against them (cuz racism lul) for supposedly being heartless towards refugees displaced by the wars in ME?

You have to distinguish between EU and non-EU migrants (who are actually the huge majority of immigrants in the UK). As a member of the EU, the UK couldn't do anything about EU migrants.

As for non-EU migrants, yes, they could do what they wanted, and did. In fact, they had some favorable treaties to keep them off their shores.

[Sheba]

I'd add one thing, Sarkozy signed an agreement with UK to keep the migrants on his country. Which is why the entire "Meanie Merkel want to flood Holy Albion with Brown People" rhetoric that some Brexiteers kept spreading is all the more infuriating. If France didnt respect the agreement and let the non-EU migrants go to UK, Calais may have not become the mess, and one of the arguments for the french far-right, it is now.

This is one of the little privileges UK enjoyed.