[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 6 Dawn of the golden witch

[Renall]

As with most episodes, it works if he's a mastermind, but works poorly if he's a killer. The core of the George Culprit theory basically requires somebody else be doing the killings for him, which in turn requires a reason why they would do this for him (beyond, of course, a reason why he is doing it).

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Renall

As with most episodes, it works if he's a mastermind, but works poorly if he's a killer. The core of the George Culprit theory basically requires somebody else be doing the killings for him, which in turn requires a reason why they would do this for him (beyond, of course, a reason why he is doing it).

Well, everyone is supposed to die anyway. No reason the mastermind can't be caught by some friendly fire as a result of unexplained betrayal X.

The point is that it's a plausible explanation outside of Kyrie intentionally MacGuyvering together a stake hurling contraption with which to commit suicide.

[Renall]

Well, if George is the mastermind, speaking hypothetically... he's godawful at it. He almost never survives to fruition of his hypothetical plans. Arguably, he never does in a single episode.

That is one lousy mastermind. Then again, the Kyrie culprit theory has the same problem, and...

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Renall

Well, if George is the mastermind, speaking hypothetically... he's godawful at it. He almost never survives to fruition of his hypothetical plans. Arguably, he never does in a single episode.

That is one lousy mastermind. Then again, the Kyrie culprit theory has the same problem, and...

It's George. He's a momma's boy with magic martial arts skills. Despite being incredibly fat.

And for crying out loud, look at the series protagonist. The entire Ushiromiya family is incompetent outside of Kinzo, and that man's nuts. And old.

No matter who the ultimate mastermind is, ultimately theyre gonna appear to be incompetent, that's just how the games have been set up.

[Renall]

Murdering everyone wouldn't be that hard. Folks have the right idea: Just run around shooting people. Do it late at night. Bring a gun and shoot people through pillows. Poison the tea. Or just use that freaking bomb. It's not like anybody's expecting to get murdered.

Eva says in ep1 she'd do it "right" as evidence it can't be her. And in fairness her plan makes more sense than a serial murder.

[Leafsnail]

I thought they quite clearly handed the key over to Gohda and Kumasawa. I mean, I guess it could be a fake, but how did they open the shutters in the first place?

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Renall

That is one lousy mastermind. Then again, the Kyrie culprit theory has the same problem, and...

Although everything screams Jessica is innocent on Maria and Ange levels. I have to admit as far as killing people and faking her death goes I at least get the impression that Jessica would actually be competent at it.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

I thought they quite clearly handed the key over to Gohda and Kumasawa. I mean, I guess it could be a fake, but how did they open the shutters in the first place?

Step 1: Use real key to open/close shutter.
Step 2: While fiddling with the lock, palm the real key and produce another key.
Step 3: Hand key to Gohda through window.

That's pretty much all you have to do. If you have another key on you - basically any key - the odds of anyone noticing are basically nil unless they got a good look at both keys.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Renall

Murdering everyone wouldn't be that hard. Kyrie has the right idea: Just run around shooting people. Do it late at night. Bring a gun and shoot people through pillows. Poison the tea. Or just use that freaking bomb. It's not like anybody's expecting to get murdered.

Except for Shannon and Kanon, for some reason. And Gohda. Nothing escapes his ever watchful gaze.

That being said, Kyrie is intelligent enough to think through the aftermath. Look at what happened with Eva, a circumstance like hers as it was presented is far and away the exception. Normally, Eva would have been outright arrested herself, the only evidence supporting her innocence was the fact that Hideyoshi and George didn't make it off the island. That eliminated her from contention, as she'd have no motive to off them.

Had Kyrie done it, she wouldn't have been able to escape suspicion. Maybe if her plan all along had been to off Rudolf and Battler then escape herself, but that act isn't consistent with someone who's been shown to be pining for her victim for 18 years. To the point of contemplating murder in order to get him for herself.

With that in mind, Kyrie had the right idea for execution (hurr durr), but the way her plan was presented would have been pretty crappy in setting up her ability to enjoy the benefits of offing the competition for the Ushiromiya fortune afterwards.

A frontal attack doesn't work because it's too obvious. In the long-run, the investigation would eventually pin the culprit by process of elimination if nothing else.

[Leafsnail]

Wouldn't Gohda and Kumasawa, being long time servants, notice? I mean, they're likely to know a unique key which has nothing in common with the master key from pretty much all the others. Unless they notice and don't say anything, I guess.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

Wouldn't Gohda and Kumasawa, being long time servants, notice? I mean, they're likely to know a unique key which has nothing in common with the master key from pretty much all the others. Unless they notice and don't say anything, I guess.

Actually, Gohda and Kumasawa are consistently portrayed as the laziest servants on the island. It's entirely possible they outright couldn't tell the difference because they never bothered with it.

Think about it. What are the odds of the chef being tasked with tending the garden, and the lazy old lady being saddled with handling gardening tools/equipment/duty?

[Renall]

Except that the explosion/disaster completely conceals all evidence. I assure you, I could not convict Eva without a confession. There simply isn't any evidence that can plausibly explain how she "got away with it." If nothing else, there is no way I could explain how she set up the disaster to happen when she doesn't own the island, doesn't live there, and can't be shown to have gone there regularly to install whatever causes it.

All Eva's lawyers have to do is hammer home to the judge or jury that I can't provide a rational or reasonable explanation for how she arranged to destroy everything so perfectly. Yeah, she's circumstantially questionable as all hell, but she'll be found not guilty for certain if she's tried for murder.

I honestly can't even prove murder. George/Hideyoshi alone destroys intent.

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, but they'd still probably be able to tell if it were one that fitted to one of the locks in the mansion. The chapel key is ruled out by Battler's investigation, but I guess one of the keys to Kinzo's study could work for this, actually, since they never turn up.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

Yeah, but they'd still probably be able to tell if it were one that fitted to one of the locks in the mansion. The chapel key is ruled out by Battler's investigation, but I guess one of the keys to Kinzo's study could work for this, actually, since they never turn up.

If they used a padlock key or something (I don't remember which was used to lock the shed in ep4), George could just pull out a mailbox key or apartment key or something. Generic machined tumbler keys are all alike.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Renall

Except that the explosion/disaster completely conceals all evidence. I assure you, I could not convict Eva without a confession. There simply isn't any evidence that can plausibly explain how she "got away with it." If nothing else, there is no way I could explain how she set up the disaster to happen when she doesn't own the island, doesn't live there, and can't be shown to have gone there regularly to install whatever causes it.

Which is why she was able to escape conviction despite being the "obvious" culprit, and the only survivor.

All Eva's lawyers have to do is hammer home to the judge or jury that I can't provide a rational or reasonable explanation for how she arranged to destroy everything so perfectly. Yeah, she's circumstantially questionable as all hell, but she'll be found not guilty for certain if she's tried for murder.

Yep.

I honestly can't even prove murder. George/Hideyoshi alone destroys intent.

Rudolf's survival alone ensures intent in Kyrie's case. She isn't presented as being capable of killing Rudolf. She would know this.

Kyrie is not stupid enough to not consider the long term outcome of a murder spree. Moreover, she has not been presented as being capable of taking the steps to ensure she'd be able to escape conviction like Eva was able to, for the reasons you just said. Therefore, it's illogical to consider her a possible mastermind.

[TehChron]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

Yeah, but they'd still probably be able to tell if it were one that fitted to one of the locks in the mansion. The chapel key is ruled out by Battler's investigation, but I guess one of the keys to Kinzo's study could work for this, actually, since they never turn up.

There are only five Master Keys is the only limitation placed on the number of keys on the island. Any one that looked similar enough could have worked for the sake of a possible switch.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Renall

Step 1: Use real key to open/close shutter.
Step 2: While fiddling with the lock, palm the real key and produce another key.
Step 3: Hand key to Gohda through window.

That's pretty much all you have to do. If you have another key on you - basically any key - the odds of anyone noticing are basically nil unless they got a good look at both keys.

Incidentally it's George the one who handed the key to Gohda. If this is the trick that was used, then George was the performer.

[Renall]

You're forgetting though, there's no proof of a murder at all short of the disaster itself. If Eva's being tried for murder, it's for murdering everyone with the incident, not any sort of serial murder. The serial murder is message bottle Witch Hunter hysteria; there remains not a scrap of evidence that anything killed the Ushiromiya family besides the explosion.

To successfully convict someone of murder for this crime, I as a prosecutor have to show:

• That the survivor set up the explosion (which is all but impossible for almost anyone, and I have little evidence to explain even to me how it was done), or knew of the explosion and did nothing to prevent it (which they would have to confess to, or I'd need evidence they knew well ahead of time).
• That the person knew everyone would die and wanted them to die.
• That no one else could have done it.

There are dozens of ways to poke holes in this even if Rosa mysteriously walks out of there with Maria (and only Maria) intact.

• "I didn't know anything about this happening."
• "I knew, but it was too late, so I had to flee for my own safety."
• "It was an accident, I was just lucky. Prove otherwise."
• "<deceased person> did it, I struggled with him/her and was able to incapacitate him/her and escape. It was self-defense that they died too."
• "How could I possibly have set any of this up?"
• "Why would I commit such an obvious crime and then make myself the only suspect?"

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by TehChron

Kyrie is not stupid enough to not consider the long term outcome of a murder spree. Moreover, she has not been presented as being capable of taking the steps to ensure she'd be able to escape conviction like Eva was able to, for the reasons you just said. Therefore, it's illogical to consider her a possible mastermind.

Except Kyrie is a former Yakuza. Arguably if she has a way of escape she could ask a favor and go to L4 private citizen levels for her Battler and Rudolf (basically something like the US citizen's protection program) and disappear from the planet entirely.

[winter 923]

About the fake key. If it was a fake key then this was all along planned that at least some flee or act as they flee from the dinning room. The Key had a plate attached that identified him as the shed key so you can't just throw any key in there and hope noone notices.
I don't think a simple "on the fly" switch of the plate would have worked if the keys follow the "old building sheme" so this was all prepared beforehand.