2009-12-25, 17:38 | Link #161 | |
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Florida
Age: 37
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Quote:
@Khold: Because It's Nanoha...
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2009-12-26, 05:21 | Link #164 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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Quote:
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2009-12-26, 05:51 | Link #165 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Haruhi and Yuki didn't exactly look like powerhouses in Japan Saimoe 2009. Eruruu being as strong as those two is not bad, but it doesn't mean that much. Koromo was a lot stronger than Eruruu in Japan Saimoe 2009. But this probably doesn't matter too much since Japan doesn't vote very much in ISML.
I'm not too familiar with KSaimoe, but it looks like Eruruu got killed in her Round of 96 match. Based on how the other Saki character did, I don't think Eruruu would have an easy time beating Koromo. This is a very rough guess, though since I don't actually know how or why Koromo failed to reach the Round of 96. For the most part, I agree with the rest of your post.
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2009-12-26, 06:34 | Link #166 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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In Jsaimoe, however, Koromo will probably make it to top 16 again in 2010. On unrelated note, I believe melange will be very happy knowing that Saten Ruiko will appear during the nomination phase, which pretty much seals her place in prelim.
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Last edited by wontaek; 2009-12-26 at 06:49. |
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2009-12-26, 11:26 | Link #167 |
ISML Technical Staff
Graphic Designer
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Hey wontaek, do you know that the http://internationalsaimoe.com/ in your signature links to the KBM site? 0.o
Speaking of which, our site design has been updated thanks to Crisu. We do have only one banner though, so if you want to help make some, please contact us somehow.
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2009-12-26, 11:44 | Link #168 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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Quote:
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2009-12-26, 15:50 | Link #170 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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It depends how much of the character we've already seen in ISML and how far away the match being predicted is. With characters that I've seen a bit of and a match that's only a few days away, I've been able to make numerous predictions that were within a single percentage point of the actual result. I'm not the only person who has done this either. It's not as big a feat as you make it sound.
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2009-12-26, 16:27 | Link #171 |
ISML Technical Staff
Graphic Designer
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It's better if you guys practice predicting percentages, because in ISML Fantasy 2010, you get bonus points for predicting percentages of certain matches.
Today's Fantasy. Which characters do you think would win in 2010? Percentages are welcome.
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2009-12-26, 16:58 | Link #172 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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1
1 1 What did Tamao do to get paired up with Shana? >_> Shana will slaughter her. I think Hanyuu vs Misaka Mikoto would be a good fight. Saten is going to be a good step below Misaka. Hanyuu shouldn't have any trouble winning. After the performance Hitagi put up on Mio, I don't think Nagi would have problems with Hitagi. I'm not familiar with the character ranking in Bakemonogatari but I believe Hitagi was at the top. This means Nadeko defintely doesn't stand a chance against Nagi. Shana (SnS) [80.97%] vs Suzumi Tamao (SP) [19.03%] Hanyuu (HNKN) [58.14%] vs Saten Ruiko (TAKR) [41.86%] Sanzen'in Nagi (HnG) [61.69%] vs Sengoku Nadeko (BKMN) [38.31%]
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2009-12-26, 19:50 | Link #174 | ||
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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I forgot to add that all of my prediction comes with error margin of +- 2.9%. That means that for something like 52 to 48, I believe I will be predicting the wrong winner about 20% of the times. Quote:
Match 1: I vote for Shana and expect Shana to win close to 90 to 10 margin, if everyone votes on mere preference. The actual results will be around 80 to 20 as there are many people who would want Shana to lose for whatever the reason Match 2: I would vote for Saten Ruiko, and will enthusiastically campaign for her. Given the proximity of Railgun episodes, I actually will say 51 to 49 Saten, but will also claim slightly bigger margin of error of +- 5%. The reason is that I think more people knows about the Railgun series compared to Higurashi, given the Railgun's success in the anime blog world, but there are many hard core Higurashi fans lurking the Moe Tournament world. Match 3: I vote for Sengoku Nadeko, hands down, but in ISML world, Sanzennin Nagi will win by margin close to 70 to 30. However, Nadeko has very fervent fan base, with much more zeal compared to Nagi fans, who are more of Hayate series fan or Kugimiya Rie fans. Every new episode that may come out with Nadeko having good number of dialogue lines will swing percentage about 5 % to her favor, meaning that 4 ~ 5 good episodes of her may give her chance for upset win.
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2009-12-27, 04:10 | Link #179 |
ISML Technical Staff
Graphic Designer
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I guess it's easy to take Higurashi characters for granted. Since she's one of my favorite characters, I keep track of how well she did in 2009, and there is no certainty she can win anything over a popular currently airing character. Hanyuu's performance in 2009 was more facepalm than Sakura's performance, and I'm not talking about final standings.
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2009-12-27, 04:58 | Link #180 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2008
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Hanyuu being from Higurashi didn't factor into my choice at all. I think Hanyuu will win because Hanyuu herself has shown how much power she has. Saten hasn't had any matches yet so I do base her strength on other characters from her series. Misaka was a fairly weak character for most of ISML 2009. She recived a massive boost thanks to Railgun but that only brought her close Hanyuu. Index and Railgun character were just that weak before Railgun came out. Saten is a popular character but she's going to be a tier of strength weaker than Misaka which in turn means she isn't close to Hanyuu. I'm sure Hanyuu has bad matches like everyone else, but it would take something like the Rozen Maiden collpase in ISML 2009 DE for Saten to have a chance. Hanyuu isn't exactly weak. Boosting Misaka to Hanyuu's level is a pretty good feat. However, it takes more than that to start pushing secondary characters into the upper tiers.
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Tags |
contest, isml, saimoe, tournament, voting |
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