[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Workworkwork]

Yknow, I was thinking about Eva and Hideyoshi's first twilight, and it hit me..

Battler himself only saw the chain cut, right? The killer cut the chain, waltzed in, and killed Eva and Hideyoshi.

[ameskitty]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

It's by finding little patterns like this that should tell us who died in Ep5... and the order of deaths in Ep4.

FYI, the death order in EP4 is available (aka which twilight is who), but you have to look at the credits. It's absent in the TIPS for some reason.

My best guess is that it's based upon a set of rules that is, while not overly complex, hard to deduce when working backwards :/. Here's some of my "general idea" guesses:
* The first twilights are the only remotely random set in the group, but all people who are killed fall into one concrete "group". It's also possible that dying in the first twilight overrides certain rules regarding death order.
* There are no death order rules regarding pairings (slight exclusion below) - after all, Beatrice wants to see them suffer, but she doesn't care how, and this can happen whether one dies before the other, vice versa, or simultaneously.
* The death order rules are arranged such that certain suspicious people appear more suspicious than they really are (Kanon, Nanjo, Rosa). (aka they die later unless killed in a first twilight or necessitated in a second twilight)
* The second twilight can only involve a few specific pairs (a few couples and a few close family members). The pairs are in a specific order on a priority "list" and are narrowed down by who dies in the first twilight. Jessica and George dying in EP4 though kind of throws this off, because otherwise we have:
Eva and Hideyoshi
Jessica and Kanon
Rosa and Maria
???

Spoiler for EP 5:

and we can perfectly guess that Eva will die next in EP5. :/

Not that it's a very clean rule anyways :/.
* Battler may not be killed in any of the ordered twilights.
* The ninth twilight on is irrelevant to the rules.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by the_rogue

FYI, the death order in EP4 is available (aka which twilight is who), but you have to look at the credits. It's absent in the TIPS for some reason.

And you believe it?

(This isn't a taunt or anything; personally I don't, and in fact I think it's probably impossible the way the record states)

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Hideyoshi outlives both of them in episode 3.

Er, I meant except in Ep3. That's the only time Hideyoshi outlives Kanon/Kumasawa, and that's because they die in the first twilight.

Originally Posted by Renall

And you believe it?

(This isn't a taunt or anything; personally I don't, and in fact I think it's probably impossible the way the record states)

What he said.

I meant that if there's a particular pattern to the deaths, we should be able to use it to figure out what really happened in Ep4.

...Battler's game might be useful in understanding this, but only if we get to see ALL the deaths and their exact order.

[ameskitty]

I don't believe it as a death order at all - I just believe it as who was chosen for each "twilight", which I think is the thing we're supposed to be able to predict.

The reason I think the twilights are predictable and not the actual death order is because of the messed-up order in EP2. (how Nanjo and Kumasawa were killed but not staked until a LONG time later, and how the order in which Gohda/Shannon/George supposedly died was not the order in which they were staked)

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by the_rogue

The reason I think the twilights are predictable and not the actual death order is because of the messed-up order in EP2. (how Nanjo and Kumasawa were killed but not staked until a LONG time later, and how the order in which Gohda/Shannon/George supposedly died was not the order in which they were staked)

Actually, was it ever confirmed that Nanjo and Kumasawa were dead at that point?

But ah, I see what you're getting at... Did Ryukishi say "twilights" or "deaths" in that interview?

Edit: chronotrig's post just says Ryukishi says we should be able to guess "what happens next"... so I guess going with twilights is far easier than death order, since we don't know Ep4's for certain and Ep2's is fucked up.

[ameskitty]

I don't think they were ever confirmed dead, but since they were missing between their supposed death and the staking it's not too naive to assume.

Hmm, looking back...what he said could go either way, but it does seem to imply twilight:

Spoiler for interview snippet:

but people who know the "answer" should be able to predict what happens next in the second twilight and beyond.

EDIT: Yeah, you got it XD.

[Tyabann]

So, if it's twilights that fall into that pattern, I need to revise my charts... actually, does anyone else have the time and/or energy to make a chart with all the twilights on it, and post it up here? Figuring out who died in Ep5 might be very, very useful...

[rogerpepitone]

@Kaisos: http://rogerpepitone.webs.com/uminek...eko-notes.html

[ameskitty]

Taking a stab at it (death order in EP5):

Spoiler for EP5:

Second Twilight part deux: Eva
Fourth: Rudolf
Fifth: Kyrie
Sixth: Kanon
Seventh: Shannon
Eighth: Gohda
"Survives" at least to the 9th: Battler, Natsuhi, Nanjo, Kumasawa, Kinzo

However this was based on a ton of random tiny patterns...I don't think that constitutes an "answer" :/. And, um, that's a strange set of survivors to say the least...

[Kit]

Looking at the notes...It seems like the only one who dies at different twilights each time is Kanon. He seems to also be the only one that doesn't have a common death twilight.

Other patterns include:

Kyrie is gouged by Mammon in both ep 3 and 4 (not on chart, but in game, Battler picks up Mammon's stake). She is the only victim to be gouged by mammon twice! Battler also removes the Stake from her head.

Aside from episode 3, Eva and Hideyoshi always perish together.

For me, episode 3 definitely screws up the patterns a lot. Though I guess having all servants die right off the bat is a nice contrast to having all parents die right off the bat in episode 2...

[Renall]

Natsuhi would probably die around the Fourth Twilight in ep5.

The real killer would finish the Second Twilight, after which point Natsuhi is no longer valuable as a patsy (they'll keep her under close watch, so the next time someone is killed it will be clear she isn't guilty). Erika would also make sense as a victim, while she's still reeling from being wrong.

Beyond that, no idea.

[artirian]

Originally Posted by the_rogue

Hmm, if you want to theorize that, I'd alter that a bit and say that Kanon will always go after the culprit (but get killed in the process, at least so far), unless he is immediately killed in the first twilight or he is not given an opportunity to pursue.

The fact that his body is missing in 2 and 4 means that he likely got close to the correct culprit, as the culprit pretty much has to be somebody who's sneaking around in strange places (like the well, perhaps) and, if they can say, throw his body off a window onto the roof (what I think happened in EP2) and make him look like the culprit, what better revenge for trying to stop them? What he did in EP1 is essentially plain vanilla pursuing the culprit .

I don't see how he could be getting the culprit wrong (at least in all episodes), but the idea of a rule revolving around him and the culprit is a good shot . Things don't tend to stay consistent across episodes and it's important to notice when they do.

Well, I have to say that it´s only one possibility based mainly on speculations and only one of my theories I have in mind about kanon. Hovever, I have some faith in a role between kanon and the culprit as you just said.

Spoiler for Some "evidence":

One of my hypothesis: In EP1 he could just killed Natsuhi, thinking that she was the mastermind. After that and all the panic (as we see in Battler et al), he just appear in front of them trying to justify his action. After that everybody got calm. I know that it sounds weird, it´s more obvius that nobody listened to Kanon and battler/Jessica just kill him with the weapon (maybe she just got form battler).

The problem in that hypothesis is if Shannon is dead in that point or not. However, in both versions it´s possible to keep up with a curse of actions that gives some strong arguments about "George as the mastermind and/or one of the culprits (the main culprit could be Shannon et al)

In EP3, maybe it´s related with the "closed room scene". I have to think more about that, but I think about this as a fake one (in the sense of "closed room").

In EP2 and EP4, it´s possible he got close to the real culprit (even is with his evidence he got confused and "made the mistake"), although the real one could just planned to give him the "avatar of guilty" from the start.

At the end, I agree with you, some inconsistency have to be analized before

Spoiler for About the "patterns":

Well, I thought the same as you except the Sixth and Seventh (Shannon before Kanon) and about Natsuhi death (I think that it is before, maybe she is not more useful), not only because thinking about "possible Rule Z", besides I have the feeling after reading the Epitaph once more (the symbolic meaning if it represents in some sense the way of killing).

Spoiler for Some extra stuff:

I had been looking for "Beatrice" in the library, related with the words "Economy", "England" and "Russia". I had found some information about someone called "Beatrice Webb". Some inconsistency: She was born before the first "Beatrice" we are talking about. However, it´s very interesting to have found some information that it´s bothering me (too much coincidence?).

[ameskitty]

Yeah, I BS'd a couple of those because it made using the existing patterns a little easier. Not expecting it to be right but I'm curious as to how much of the "predeceasing" patterns hold. (a few are kind of "sticking" in my head but not enough to make a complete ruleset or anything really coherent)

Plus I just kind of wanted to make one .

It'd be fun to see Natsuhi die so we can see Erika bawling and ripping her own hair out - and it'll probably happen for irony's sake (and by "the rules", of course). All I really know is that Eva has a very high chance of being the next victim and that Shannon and Kanon have a very low chance of survival.

...as for Erika, who knows? She'll probably be whacked off fairly early just to make her shut up - and she probably won't be staked.

[momobunny]

Originally Posted by the_rogue

Yeah, I BS'd a couple of those because it made using the existing patterns a little easier. Not expecting it to be right but I'm curious as to how much of the "predeceasing" patterns hold. (a few are kind of "sticking" in my head but not enough to make a complete ruleset or anything really coherent)

Plus I just kind of wanted to make one .

It'd be fun to see Natsuhi die so we can see Erika bawling and ripping her own hair out - and it'll probably happen for irony's sake (and by "the rules", of course). All I really know is that Eva has a very high chance of being the next victim and that Shannon and Kanon have a very low chance of survival.

...as for Erika, who knows? She'll probably be whacked off fairly early just to make her shut up - and she probably won't be staked.

A note will be left by her corpse.
"Uhh yeah, usually the third twilight is just so that you can all praise Beatrice's name on high, but uhhh... I made an exception."

[ameskitty]

And they shall all shout "Praise Beatrice! The heretic has been slain!"

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Kit

Other patterns include:

Kyrie is gouged by Mammon in both ep 3 and 4 (not on chart, but in game, Battler picks up Mammon's stake). She is the only victim to be gouged by mammon twice! Battler also removes the Stake from her head.

I reread that part of Episode 4, and although Battler pulls out the stake, he isn't able to identify it. We don't actually know anything about which stakes were used in that episode, since the magic scenes all showed the victims being killed by Siestas.

Mammon's stake is the one with the most abnormal circumstances around it, though.
Episode 1: Stabbed into Kinzo's corpse, rather than a genuine victim; Maria spent a long time staring at it as if something was weird about it
Episode 2: Left by the head of Shannon, the only gunshot victim; was the only stake not stabbed into a wound
Episode 3: Found by the police, but not believed to be a murder weapon, despite having supposedly been stuck in Kyrie's stomach

Originally Posted by Kit

Aside from episode 3, Eva and Hideyoshi always perish together.

They didn't in Episode 5 either, and I'm not really buying the arguments that Eva's supposed to be the other victim in that round. In Episodes 1-3, the second twilight victims were always a pair of people who were isolated from the others, and their corpses turned up at the same time. But in Episode 5, it looks like Hideyoshi faked his death, and he deliberately separated himself from Eva to do it. In that case, Eva can't be the other victim, because she was needed to hear Hideyoshi's "death throes" and summon the others.

There aren't any other survivors missing at that point, but Kinzo's corpse isn't accounted for. If we build on the "let's frame Natsuhi" theme of Hideyoshi's death, wouldn't it be suspicious if the corpse turned up in the boiler room?

My guess at the death order:

2nd: Hideyoshi (Lucifer), Kinzo (Mammon)
4th: Kanon (Satan)
5th: Gohda (Beelzebub)
6th: Natsuhi (Asmodeus)
7th: Kumasawa (Leviathan)
8th: Nanjo (Belphegor)
10th: Battler, Erika, Rudolf, Kyrie, Eva, Shannon

It has the benefit of a showdown at the tenth twilight with Erika trying to pin the crime on Battler's parents

[ameskitty]

I have always thought that about the 2nd twilight (that it's simply two isolated pawns that get knocked off), but the need to be able to predict its outcome is causing real problems with that :/. It's probably a lot more complicated than "Couple X" or "Couple Y" - I agree.

[Marion]

I doubt it's couple X or couple Y - in EP 4 Jessica and George are considered to be the 2nd twilight, but they're definietly not romantically involved at all

As far as EP 5 you have to consider something...

Spoiler for EP 6 spoilers:

According to the teaser screens we saw Ange and the 1998 world returns (Juuza mentioned '12 years ago' so we know for sure it is 1998). Normally this shouldn't happen, considering Kasumi taking Ange and presumably killing her in secret. Which makes me think in EP 5 at least one person does survive the murders and then adopts Ange. Considering what Juuza says in that same cap I doubt it was anybody from her family (Battler, Rudolf and Kyrie). It probably isn't Natsuhi either.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Marion

I doubt it's couple X or couple Y - in EP 4 Jessica and George are considered to be the 2nd twilight, but they're definietly not romantically involved at all

And that's if those two even died at the second twilight in the first place. With the foggy timeline there's nothing to prove the death order except Beato's magic scenes, and we know how much those are worth. You could just as easily say that Gohda and Kumasawa were the second twilight victims.

Originally Posted by Marion

As far as EP 5 you have to consider something...

Spoiler for EP 6 spoilers:

According to the teaser screens we saw Ange and the 1998 world returns (Juuza mentioned '12 years ago' so we know for sure it is 1998). Normally this shouldn't happen, considering Kasumi taking Ange and presumably killing her in secret. Which makes me think in EP 5 at least one person does survive the murders and then adopts Ange. Considering what Juuza says in that same cap I doubt it was anybody from her family (Battler, Rudolf and Kyrie). It probably isn't Natsuhi either.

Spoiler for EP 6:

Considering that Juuza is Ange's bodyguard again, I'd say it's almost certain that Eva survived and she hired him like she did in the Episode 3 aftermath. So that's another reason not to pick Eva as the other second twilight victim.