The Syria Crisis

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Wow, military defections too?

That's a genuine mess. You don't see that often.

[AnimeFan188]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Wow, military defections too?

That's a genuine mess. You don't see that often.

"The army is falling apart, with desertions growing. Many units are kept in their
bases, essentially under guard by the more loyal troops. But desertions are taking
place anyway. The government wants to avoid entire units deserting, and taking all
their weapons with them. To make up for a manpower shortage, the government
has organized militias from it loyalists. These guys are little better than undisciplined
thugs and are responsible for most of the atrocities."

See:

http://www.strategypage.com/qnd/syri.../20120613.aspx

[AnimeFan188]

US official: Russia sends troops to Syria as peace hopes fade:

"Russia is sending armed troops to Syria amid escalating violence there, United
States military officials told NBC News Friday, in a move certain to frustrate Western
efforts to put pressure on the regime of President Bashir Assad.

Moscow has sent a ship carrying a small contingent of combat forces to guard
Russia’s deep-water port and military base at the Syrian city of Tartus, the US
officials said."

See:

http://worldnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news...opes-fade?lite

[Ithekro]

The second paragragh makes more sense (politically) than the first.

[AnimeFan188]

turkish f 4 being shot down by syrian s 300:

"(Updated 17.35): The Turkish Chouriet that actually transmits the Turkish fighter
(not confirmed if it was F-4E 2020 or fighter / ID RF-4E) had violated Syrian
airspace, but after his fall, the Syrians gave permission to Turks and approached
the area while their pilots and delivered.

----------

(Updated 16.48) Final: Shot down by fire from the air defense systems S-300PMU2
impact the Turkish fighter F-4E 2020 (providing other sources of RF-4E) who
violated the Syrian airspace and two pilots captured. The Reuters transmits that
shot up from the Syrian territory. Also the Lebanese channel "Al Bagianter"
conveys that was shot down by Syrian air defense fire."

See:

http://www.topix.com/forum/world/mac...7MUT1D86LULSKG


================================================== =====


No information about missing pilots: Turkish PM:

"Turkish Prime Minister says cannot say whether Turkish warplane shot down or
crashed, no news on pilots.

The plane was taken down by Syrian forces, an official Turkish source confirmed to
Hürriyet Daily News.

The pilots of a crashed Turkish military still missing and Turkish military is
searching for the two pilots PM Erdoğan said."

See:

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/syr...&NewsCatID=341

[ganbaru]

^ That's probably another step toward a armed intervention in Syria.

[Ridwan]

So it has come to this ??

Turkey might not going to actually invade, but Assad is now in for a cruel butt hurt...

[sbg711]

There were rumours of Russia reinforcing Syria's air defences for the past ~6 months or so. NATO is eager to "install a no-fly zone" over Syrian airspace (which, in other words, means bomb the hell out of Assad's ground forces), but the probable presence of a viable air defence capability is what's keeping NATO at bay.
The Turkish jet was flying at high speed and low altitude, unarmed. This was a reconnaissance mission in order to confirm Syria's ability or inability to respond to an invasion.

However, Erdogan had to make an idiot out of himself and claim that the Turkish military aircraft had penetrated Syrian airspace due to "flying too fast". I guess the arms and thugs that are regularly pouring from Turkey into Syria are also "running too fast", hence being unable to stop before breaching the poorly protected border.

Mark my words, until the west manages to strike a deal with Putin on the Syrian question, there will be no no-fly-zones nor invasions, unless someone's really eager to start WWIII, but then again, definitely someone is.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Still, even Syria is playing down the incident by claiming they shot id down "accidentally", whatever that means. Something to do with how they didn't know what it was, so they shoot it down as a precaution. It seems had they knew it was Turkish they would have tried to handle this peacefully.

Syria knows they can't afford a new enemy right now.

[sbg711]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Syria knows they can't afford a new enemy right now.

Please... Syria's enemies, since the beginning of the insurgency, were NATO and pro-western Arab states. Any NATO member today is by default an enemy of Syria. The fact that they're not yet in a state of proclaimed war is thanks to Chinese, Russian and Iranian initiatives in the UN and other political and military sectors, as well as thanks to those Syrians who are actively fighting the massive information war that has been waged against their country. The lack of NATO's acclaimed military involvement in the conflict does not discard the fact that the insurgency is receiving finances, intelligence, arms and manpower from abroad.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by sbg711

Please... Syria's enemies, since the beginning of the insurgency, were NATO and pro-western Arab states. Any NATO member today is by default an enemy of Syria. The fact that they're not yet in a state of proclaimed war is thanks to Chinese, Russian and Iranian initiatives in the UN and other political and military sectors, as well as thanks to those Syrians who are actively fighting the massive information war that has been waged against their country. The lack of NATO's acclaimed military involvement in the conflict does not discard the fact that the insurgency is receiving finances, intelligence, arms and manpower from abroad.

If the plane had been American, they would have been more angry. But the fact is they wouldn't have tried to diffuse the situation by saying it was all an accident, unless they genuinely rather Turkey not escalate the situation.

I will believe you are right if Syria demand an apology from Turkey. Which they have not done.

[Ridwan]

Actually from what I heard, it was Syria who apologized.

And also, that Russia and NATO are coming into terms with the inevitable and making plans so as to allow Assad to leave peacefully and avoid turning his country into Somalia.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...hes-power.html

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Aegir

Actually from what I heard, it was Syria who apologized.

And also, that Russia and NATO are coming into terms with the inevitable and making plans so as to allow Assad to leave peacefully and avoid turning his country into Somalia.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...hes-power.html

Well :

1. Syria was economically blocked and can't make money.
2. Russia was selling arms to Syria.
3. Russia is not getting back their money.
4. US was giving away arms to the Syrian rebels without getting any money or oil deal back.

Glad to see there are still sensible people working in the administrations of the Cold War foes.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Aegir

Actually from what I heard, it was Syria who apologized.

And also, that Russia and NATO are coming into terms with the inevitable and making plans so as to allow Assad to leave peacefully and avoid turning his country into Somalia.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...hes-power.html

Yeah. The big deal is that Assad's army is falling apart. It's not that he is being crushed by strong enemies, it's that he no longer holds enough power to rule what he has left.

In the other recent Middle East civil wars, the ruler's army generally stayed in one piece. But in Syria's case the army itself is crumbling from a lack of loyalty.

Seriously, that's what happens when the ruler is from an ethnic minority. Not enough people liked him.

[sbg711]

Originally Posted by Aegir

Actually from what I heard, it was Syria who apologized.

As far as I know the plane was identified as Turkish only after it was downed, hence the apology. However, I've also read controversy about that.

Originally Posted by Aegir

And also, that Russia and NATO are coming into terms with the inevitable and making plans so as to allow Assad to leave peacefully and avoid turning his country into Somalia.

That's very funny. I've been hearing that since the beginning of the conflict. It is not in Russia's interests to allow Assad to leave or to be killed, and it is not in NATO's interests for Assad to stay.

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

2. Russia was selling arms to Syria.
3. Russia is not getting back their money.

Well, Russia has been selling arms to Syria on credit for quite a while now, it's not like anything changed there with the installation of an economical blockade.

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

4. US was giving away arms to the Syrian rebels without getting any money or oil deal back.

It's geopolitical. The final target is Iran. Afghan troops are being relocated to Kuwait.

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Yeah. The big deal is that Assad's army is falling apart. It's not that he is being crushed by strong enemies, it's that he no longer holds enough power to rule what he has left.

If Assad's military would be prone to desertion, it would have done so long ago. Yet he's standing firm for over a year now. A stolen airplane and several reports of those defecting is but a needle in a haystack.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Well :

1. Syria was economically blocked and can't make money.
2. Russia was selling arms to Syria.
3. Russia is not getting back their money.
4. US was giving away arms to the Syrian rebels without getting any money or oil deal back.

Glad to see there are still sensible people working in the administrations of the Cold War foes.

''Free weapons'' time. They probably hate this.
They want to sell them, not to give them away ...

[AnimeFan188]

Syria shot at second Turkish jet, Ankara claims:

"Turkey has sharply raised the stakes in a military standoff with Syria, claiming one
of its search and rescue planes was shot at as it tried to find a Turkish jet shot
down on Friday by Syrian gunners.

Bülent Arınç, the deputy prime minister, said the rescue plane had been attacked as
it flew over the Mediterranean searching for two pilots. The claim undermines
Damascus's insistence that the first jet was attacked due to mistaken identity."

See:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012...sh-plane-claim

[Ridwan]

Possibility of jet-shooting invoking NATO charter's Article 5.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Aegir

Possibility of jet-shooting invoking NATO charter's Article 5.

Now we only need for Syria to attack the Turkish oil pipeline @ Cehyan for WWIII to really start

[ganbaru]

Exclusive: Russia backs Annan idea of Syria unity government: envoys
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...85Q1TE20120628