2010-03-25, 15:02 | Link #7062 | |
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By my interpretation Rosa specifically has no one suggesting she is acting out of character, but anyone else could have that kind of foreshadowing.
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2010-03-25, 15:04 | Link #7063 | ||
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2010-03-25, 15:24 | Link #7064 |
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This isn't very convincing to me. The first point, that you can't prove things so you have to follow guesses to their "logical conclusion," is itself self-contradictory. Don't confuse the expression "following it to its logical conclusion" with an actual, logical demonstration (the "answer"). In the former case, as you said, you create a guess and follow it from the premise that your guess is true (or false). Just because you do not run into a fatal contradiction while following a line of reasoning as far as it will go does not mean you have found the actual solution.
Note that assuming the premise and not finding errors or contradictions doesn't mean the premise is true. I can "prove" that Gohda was accidentally responsible for every death in ep2 by assuming he was the bumbling culprit and trying to disprove it; as it so happens, Gohda could have accidentally killed everyone in ep2, but obviously that's absurd and not the real answer. It's a joke answer, but it's funny in part because it's a ridiculous premise that doesn't terminate in an obvious contradiction. But that doesn't make it right. It doesn't even begin to make it right. It's also important not to make too many assumptions, or adopt further assumptions and premises as you go along. The former is my objection to the Author Theory and the latter is my objection to yours. The second point I highlighted is confusing me. Just because a theory claims to explain "more" doesn't make it "better." For example, pretend for a moment that Author Theory is true. There's a lot that Author Theory basically considers irrelevant; most of the characters die without really resolving anything, there's no way to save them, etc. Shkanontrice definitely solves more than this. But that doesn't mean it's right. Which is self-evident; in a court of law the person who has the most proof always loses to the person who has one single perfect piece of proof. I have to think you meant something else though, so feel free to clarify before I try to take that criticism any further. Perhaps more importantly, the author's answer doesn't have to be the one that resolves everything (although he's promised the mysteries are solvable, which means it should at least be possible to guess whodunnit). Ryukishi has said quite a lot that this isn't a traditional mystery. That might mean it's a mystery that plays with the traditional tropes and expectations of a mystery. But it might also mean that it isn't a mystery at all. Fiction is a question posed by the author to the audience; the author is not obligated to answer, and if he or she does, the answer does not have to be to the questions the reader expects to be answered. Now, I do kind of think this is more of a why-centric mystery (understanding the motive leads to understanding the how and why), instead of a traditional mystery which is who/how-centric (understanding whodunnit allows you to peg their motive). I do think it is a mystery. But there are two as-yet unwritten episodes and for all I know ep7 will say "Pranked, it's actually a romance!" and ep8 will be Battler and Beato going on a date. I mean, I hope not, but I sure can't say it won't. And he's certainly suggested he will not answer everything. That could be so that people still have to figure it out at the end, or it could be because answering everything wasn't his goal in the first place. |
2010-03-25, 15:33 | Link #7065 |
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It's just an interpretation. And I do believe there is evidence to support it. You don't have to beleive it, but you have to beleive that I beleive it. So I would still like some of those clues please. Not immediately, It can be in the next day, or the next year. But even if it's small I need something that satisfies this interpretation for disguises to work under it.
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2010-03-25, 17:06 | Link #7066 | ||
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However, if you look at the evidence from the actual game, it repeatedly hints that this is not the case. When Battler wins at the end of EP5, he says "There is no objective way of proving that this corpse is Kinzo's". The gold text argument shows that it's at least possible for any scene to contain a falsehood. There is no possible way to construct a logical proof without absolute information, and the red text is the only thing that is absolute in this game. Furthermore, even Featherinne states that her solution is one of a set of possible solutions. So, we have the two people who claim to have solved the game implying that it does not require a logical proof. If you go back to my earliest posts on this, you'll see that I said this: Quote:
The next step is a big one though, so I ask that you give me a few hours time.
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2010-03-25, 17:20 | Link #7067 | |
Homo Ludens
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Furthermore, if getting to the solution requires the reader to pick a conclusion and follow it to the logical end without any real indication that the conclusion may be accurate, then we simply have Higurashi's god-awful mystery all over again. This is violating the very principle behind Knox 8, if not technically the rule itself. |
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2010-03-25, 17:49 | Link #7068 | |
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Let me clarify though. I'm not saying that there is no indication that my conclusion is accurate. There are literally dozens of indications. However, there is indeed nothing that constitutes a logical proof. However, since it is possible to reach through inductive logic rather than deductive, it is incorrect to say that it is unsolvable. Whether you consider this approach fair or not is a different matter, but it does give you a result in the end.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-03-25 at 18:05. |
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2010-03-25, 18:47 | Link #7069 | ||
Homo Ludens
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But I'm probably wrong. Quote:
I do consider that effectively unsolvable, though. If the only way to arrive at The Truth is to merely construct a theory based off of observable information that can't be disproven, then it's a shot in the dark as to whether you'll be correct or not. |
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2010-03-25, 18:51 | Link #7070 |
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No Higurashi had tons of hints like the syringe that causes people to commit suicide and Hinamizawa syndrome. The tips system is very different from Umineko though. Higurashi definitely didn't follow Knox's 4th and 2nd most of the time, but it didn't have to because it was closer to science fiction.
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2010-03-25, 19:04 | Link #7071 | |
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Well, hmm, if the "Answer" can be reached through conjecture alone, and must be reached through "inductive logic", i.e. observable information without contradictions...
Say that, for example, Shannon and Kanon are secretly lovers and are killing everyone for [X evil motive]. I could write up like ten paragraphs about it and provide what I consider to be "evidence," but I'd be shot down immediately because there's little in-game support for it, even though there is no (truly) contradictory information. (Battler has never seen with his own eyes any evidence that Shannon/Kanon had any feelings for George/Jessica at all, and there's no red about it either.) Shkannon(trice), however, is growing in acceptance only because support for it can be found... but that doesn't mean the theory is correct. (In fact, unlike my Secret Lovers theory, there ARE a few contradictions that most people who tout Shkannon(trice) tend to ignore or gloss over.) Ever heard of a "red herring"? But this is just rehashing old arguments, so I'll leave it. It should be plain what I'm trying to say. Quote:
Last edited by Tyabann; 2010-03-25 at 19:19. |
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2010-03-25, 19:11 | Link #7072 |
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It's Higurashi and this was already explained in the Anime. If it's against the rules I can delete my posts, but I don't think it is.
A drug causing suicide was asked about by Ooishi in the tips of the very first scenario so I don't think that's a huge spoiler at all.
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2010-03-25, 19:55 | Link #7073 |
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@Kaisos Erranon:
Okay, now I agree totally with what you're saying. Gah, this next part of the theory is very long. It's where a huge chunk of the supporting evidence comes in, but if I add all of it, it'll be a full book. I guess I'll just leave some details out and let you guys point out the bits you find weaker. Then I can go in depth on how I got to those.
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2010-03-25, 20:30 | Link #7074 |
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There's something suspicious about episode 3. Until this red it was never stated that any of the rooms were locked just that people and keys were found in the there that there were no traps used, and that no one is hiding. It's possible to create a closed room without the rooms being locked right? Ssol showed us before that Beatrice's definition of a closed room doesn't necessarily have to be a locked room you just have to be separated from the inside and the outside.
(episode 4) The individual keys were found inside envelopes alongside the corpses! In short, all keys related to the linked closed rooms were locked inside the linked closed rooms!! But there is no red saying "All of the six rooms were closed rooms"
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Last edited by Judoh; 2010-03-25 at 20:47. |
2010-03-25, 22:18 | Link #7076 |
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@Chronotrig I will add a suggestion on top of your theory of the gold truth. It's not to bash you theory it's just to make it make a little more sense. If you beleive magic = religion. Then gold text = doctrine.
In other words it's not necessary for the gold to be false since you cannot prove or disprove it (Agnosticism). In that case if Shannon believes in it it is her "doctrine" and it is true for her. With this theory she can use this doctrine to convince (convert) people to follow her magic (religion). Also you can explain away Ange's contradicting statements in that golden land scene by saying she is using miracles instead of magic. Because clearly ANGE's magic can't exist in that world, but maybe miracles can.
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2010-03-25, 22:23 | Link #7077 | |
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Also, a gold truth doesn't necessarily have to refer to what we'd call magic. Any lie that is believed by all witnesses becomes a truth with Beato's theory. Then again, I can't prove this particular interpretation. I just think it's more simple and general. Of course, as I've already said before, I don't think it has to be an actual lie. As long as everyone believes in it, it becomes a gold truth, regardless of whether it was true or not in the first place. Hence the cat box. Edit: I guess, all things considered, doctrine works well enough, just not in the normal sense of the word.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-03-25 at 22:34. |
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2010-03-25, 22:53 | Link #7078 | |
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It might be better to call them "half truths" rather than lies.
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2010-03-25, 22:56 | Link #7079 | |
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I love the theory Chronotrig. I hope this puts all the doubters to rest once and for all. Good job.
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