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Old 2010-03-25, 14:59   Link #7061
LyricalAura
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But there were no clues that someone was disguising as Rosa specifically, which is what Dlanor was getting at.
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Old 2010-03-25, 15:02   Link #7062
Judoh
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Originally Posted by LyricalAura View Post
But there were no clues that someone was disguising as Rosa specifically, which is what Dlanor was getting at.
All I did was question what the definition of a "clue" was to Dlanor. Does it always have to be something physical? Or can it be a statement made by another character or a hint in the narration?

By my interpretation Rosa specifically has no one suggesting she is acting out of character, but anyone else could have that kind of foreshadowing.
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Old 2010-03-25, 15:04   Link #7063
chronotrig
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You could, but Like I said there is plenty of evidence that someone could disguising themselves as another. Especially in episode 2 with Jessica cosplaying and singing Tsurrepettan. From Dlanor's perspective though she thinks it would be unfair to allow that in the story without some kind of Dialogue to foreshadow it. There has to be something else besides evidence I think. That's just my interpretation, of course.
Quote:
"There have been no hints suggesting that someone had disguised themselves as Rosa!"
To clarify, the Japanese of this line can also be interpreted "There have been no hints suggesting that anyone ever disguised themselves as Rosa". It doesn't specify this particular scene. You can believe whatever you want, but Dlanor is only saying that there must be a clue somewhere suggesting that "someone" might disguise themselves as Rosa. You're free to believe whatever you want, but Dlanor's statement here doesn't technically support your interpretation.
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Old 2010-03-25, 15:24   Link #7064
Renall
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Spoiler for chrono:
This isn't very convincing to me. The first point, that you can't prove things so you have to follow guesses to their "logical conclusion," is itself self-contradictory. Don't confuse the expression "following it to its logical conclusion" with an actual, logical demonstration (the "answer"). In the former case, as you said, you create a guess and follow it from the premise that your guess is true (or false). Just because you do not run into a fatal contradiction while following a line of reasoning as far as it will go does not mean you have found the actual solution.

Note that assuming the premise and not finding errors or contradictions doesn't mean the premise is true. I can "prove" that Gohda was accidentally responsible for every death in ep2 by assuming he was the bumbling culprit and trying to disprove it; as it so happens, Gohda could have accidentally killed everyone in ep2, but obviously that's absurd and not the real answer. It's a joke answer, but it's funny in part because it's a ridiculous premise that doesn't terminate in an obvious contradiction. But that doesn't make it right. It doesn't even begin to make it right.

It's also important not to make too many assumptions, or adopt further assumptions and premises as you go along. The former is my objection to the Author Theory and the latter is my objection to yours.

The second point I highlighted is confusing me. Just because a theory claims to explain "more" doesn't make it "better." For example, pretend for a moment that Author Theory is true. There's a lot that Author Theory basically considers irrelevant; most of the characters die without really resolving anything, there's no way to save them, etc. Shkanontrice definitely solves more than this. But that doesn't mean it's right. Which is self-evident; in a court of law the person who has the most proof always loses to the person who has one single perfect piece of proof. I have to think you meant something else though, so feel free to clarify before I try to take that criticism any further.

Perhaps more importantly, the author's answer doesn't have to be the one that resolves everything (although he's promised the mysteries are solvable, which means it should at least be possible to guess whodunnit). Ryukishi has said quite a lot that this isn't a traditional mystery. That might mean it's a mystery that plays with the traditional tropes and expectations of a mystery. But it might also mean that it isn't a mystery at all. Fiction is a question posed by the author to the audience; the author is not obligated to answer, and if he or she does, the answer does not have to be to the questions the reader expects to be answered.

Now, I do kind of think this is more of a why-centric mystery (understanding the motive leads to understanding the how and why), instead of a traditional mystery which is who/how-centric (understanding whodunnit allows you to peg their motive). I do think it is a mystery. But there are two as-yet unwritten episodes and for all I know ep7 will say "Pranked, it's actually a romance!" and ep8 will be Battler and Beato going on a date. I mean, I hope not, but I sure can't say it won't. And he's certainly suggested he will not answer everything. That could be so that people still have to figure it out at the end, or it could be because answering everything wasn't his goal in the first place.
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Old 2010-03-25, 15:33   Link #7065
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
You're free to believe whatever you want, but Dlanor's statement here doesn't technically support your interpretation.
It's just an interpretation. And I do believe there is evidence to support it. You don't have to beleive it, but you have to beleive that I beleive it. So I would still like some of those clues please. Not immediately, It can be in the next day, or the next year. But even if it's small I need something that satisfies this interpretation for disguises to work under it.
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Old 2010-03-25, 17:06   Link #7066
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Renall View Post
This isn't very convincing to me. The first point, that you can't prove things so you have to follow guesses to their "logical conclusion," is itself self-contradictory. Don't confuse the expression "following it to its logical conclusion" with an actual, logical demonstration (the "answer"). In the former case, as you said, you create a guess and follow it from the premise that your guess is true (or false). Just because you do not run into a fatal contradiction while following a line of reasoning as far as it will go does not mean you have found the actual solution.
Who said anything about absolute proof? I'm pretty sure I've said from the beginning that I do not know for a fact that my theory is right. You seem to believe, without any basis that I've seen, that it is possible to solve Umineko by logically proving that a certain answer is right.

However, if you look at the evidence from the actual game, it repeatedly hints that this is not the case. When Battler wins at the end of EP5, he says "There is no objective way of proving that this corpse is Kinzo's". The gold text argument shows that it's at least possible for any scene to contain a falsehood. There is no possible way to construct a logical proof without absolute information, and the red text is the only thing that is absolute in this game. Furthermore, even Featherinne states that her solution is one of a set of possible solutions. So, we have the two people who claim to have solved the game implying that it does not require a logical proof.

If you go back to my earliest posts on this, you'll see that I said this:
Quote:
However, I know for a fact that there are least two ways to explain all of these things. One of them is more obvious but a lot less neat than the other. Knowing Ryuukishi, there's a chance that my entire theory now is just one step on the path to the final answer. Still, I have proof that this is a step he intended us to reach at some point.
Just give me a second and I'll start writing up the next part of the theory now. This is where you'll start seeing the actual results of my theory. I've very explicitly said that the theory I've proposed so far is not extraordinarily convincing by itself, but I'm getting there.

The next step is a big one though, so I ask that you give me a few hours time.
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Old 2010-03-25, 17:20   Link #7067
Tyabann
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
So, we have the two people who claim to have solved the game implying that it does not require a logical proof.
That's not what they're saying. They're saying that it's impossible to provide objective proof for their conclusions, but that doesn't meant that they didn't use logical reasoning to get to that point. You'll note that Battler solved the game solely through applying the Knox rules to the games he'd already seen.

Furthermore, if getting to the solution requires the reader to pick a conclusion and follow it to the logical end without any real indication that the conclusion may be accurate, then we simply have Higurashi's god-awful mystery all over again. This is violating the very principle behind Knox 8, if not technically the rule itself.
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Old 2010-03-25, 17:49   Link #7068
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Furthermore, if getting to the solution requires the reader to pick a conclusion and follow it to the logical end without any real indication that the conclusion may be accurate, then we simply have Higurashi's god-awful mystery all over again. This is violating the very principle behind Knox 8, if not technically the rule itself.
This may surprise you, but many people on this board enjoyed solving the puzzles in Higurashi immensely, and some of us consider it to be one of the most complex and interesting puzzles around. And that's entirely separate from the great story.

Let me clarify though. I'm not saying that there is no indication that my conclusion is accurate. There are literally dozens of indications. However, there is indeed nothing that constitutes a logical proof. However, since it is possible to reach through inductive logic rather than deductive, it is incorrect to say that it is unsolvable. Whether you consider this approach fair or not is a different matter, but it does give you a result in the end.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-03-25 at 18:05.
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Old 2010-03-25, 18:47   Link #7069
Tyabann
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
This may surprise you, but many people on this board enjoyed solving the puzzles in Higurashi immensely, and some of us consider it to be one of the most complex and interesting puzzles around. And that's entirely separate from the great story.
I need to finish Higurashi's question arcs before I argue with you about this, but I always got the impression that the entire thing violates Ryukishi's Knox 8, as in it doesn't offer much in the way of clues that help to solve its central mysteries.

But I'm probably wrong.

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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
However, since it is possible to reach through inductive logic rather than deductive, it is incorrect to say that it is unsolvable. Whether you consider this approach fair or not is a different matter, but it does give you a result in the end.
If you consider "inductive logic" to mean "wild conjectures with nothing but circumstantial evidence supporting them", well, sure.

I do consider that effectively unsolvable, though. If the only way to arrive at The Truth is to merely construct a theory based off of observable information that can't be disproven, then it's a shot in the dark as to whether you'll be correct or not.
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Old 2010-03-25, 18:51   Link #7070
Judoh
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No Higurashi had tons of hints like the syringe that causes people to commit suicide and Hinamizawa syndrome. The tips system is very different from Umineko though. Higurashi definitely didn't follow Knox's 4th and 2nd most of the time, but it didn't have to because it was closer to science fiction.
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Old 2010-03-25, 19:04   Link #7071
Tyabann
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Well, hmm, if the "Answer" can be reached through conjecture alone, and must be reached through "inductive logic", i.e. observable information without contradictions...

Say that, for example, Shannon and Kanon are secretly lovers and are killing everyone for [X evil motive]. I could write up like ten paragraphs about it and provide what I consider to be "evidence," but I'd be shot down immediately because there's little in-game support for it, even though there is no (truly) contradictory information. (Battler has never seen with his own eyes any evidence that Shannon/Kanon had any feelings for George/Jessica at all, and there's no red about it either.)

Shkannon(trice), however, is growing in acceptance only because support for it can be found... but that doesn't mean the theory is correct. (In fact, unlike my Secret Lovers theory, there ARE a few contradictions that most people who tout Shkannon(trice) tend to ignore or gloss over.)

Ever heard of a "red herring"? But this is just rehashing old arguments, so I'll leave it. It should be plain what I'm trying to say.

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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
No Higurashi had tons of hints like the syringe that causes people to commit suicide and Hinamizawa syndrome. The tips system is very different from Umineko though. Higurashi definitely didn't follow Knox's 4th and 2nd most of the time, but it didn't have to because it was closer to science fiction.
Are we really allowed to spoil all that here?

Last edited by Tyabann; 2010-03-25 at 19:19.
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Old 2010-03-25, 19:11   Link #7072
Judoh
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
Are we really allowed to spoil all that here?
It's Higurashi and this was already explained in the Anime. If it's against the rules I can delete my posts, but I don't think it is.

A drug causing suicide was asked about by Ooishi in the tips of the very first scenario so I don't think that's a huge spoiler at all.
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Old 2010-03-25, 19:55   Link #7073
chronotrig
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@Kaisos Erranon:
Okay, now I agree totally with what you're saying.

Gah, this next part of the theory is very long. It's where a huge chunk of the supporting evidence comes in, but if I add all of it, it'll be a full book. I guess I'll just leave some details out and let you guys point out the bits you find weaker. Then I can go in depth on how I got to those.
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Old 2010-03-25, 20:30   Link #7074
Judoh
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There's something suspicious about episode 3. Until this red it was never stated that any of the rooms were locked just that people and keys were found in the there that there were no traps used, and that no one is hiding. It's possible to create a closed room without the rooms being locked right? Ssol showed us before that Beatrice's definition of a closed room doesn't necessarily have to be a locked room you just have to be separated from the inside and the outside.


(episode 4)
The individual keys were found inside envelopes alongside the corpses!
In short, all keys related to the linked closed rooms were locked inside the linked closed rooms!!


But there is no red saying "All of the six rooms were closed rooms"

Last edited by Judoh; 2010-03-25 at 20:47.
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Old 2010-03-25, 21:54   Link #7075
chronotrig
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Spoiler for chrono:
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-03-25 at 22:07.
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Old 2010-03-25, 22:18   Link #7076
Judoh
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@Chronotrig I will add a suggestion on top of your theory of the gold truth. It's not to bash you theory it's just to make it make a little more sense. If you beleive magic = religion. Then gold text = doctrine.

In other words it's not necessary for the gold to be false since you cannot prove or disprove it (Agnosticism). In that case if Shannon believes in it it is her "doctrine" and it is true for her. With this theory she can use this doctrine to convince (convert) people to follow her magic (religion).

Also you can explain away Ange's contradicting statements in that golden land scene by saying she is using miracles instead of magic. Because clearly ANGE's magic can't exist in that world, but maybe miracles can.
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Old 2010-03-25, 22:23   Link #7077
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
@Chronotrig I will add a suggestion on top of your theory of the gold truth. It's not to bash you theory it's just to make it make a little more sense. If you beleive magic = religion. Then gold = doctrine.

In other words it's not necessary for the gold to be false since you cannot prove or disprove it. In that case if Shannon believes in it it is her "doctrine" and it is true for her. With this theory she can use this doctrine to convince (convert) people to follow her magic (religion).
I don't think doctrine is necessarily the best term. Sayo's theory on truth doesn't require that she convert all witnesses to her religion, it just means that she must convince them that X is the truth. Of course, converting someone to a religion is one strong way of doing this, but that's not all there is to it.

Also, a gold truth doesn't necessarily have to refer to what we'd call magic. Any lie that is believed by all witnesses becomes a truth with Beato's theory.
Then again, I can't prove this particular interpretation. I just think it's more simple and general.

Of course, as I've already said before, I don't think it has to be an actual lie. As long as everyone believes in it, it becomes a gold truth, regardless of whether it was true or not in the first place. Hence the cat box.

Edit: I guess, all things considered, doctrine works well enough, just not in the normal sense of the word.
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Last edited by chronotrig; 2010-03-25 at 22:34.
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Old 2010-03-25, 22:53   Link #7078
Judoh
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
I don't think doctrine is necessarily the best term. Sayo's theory on truth doesn't require that she convert all witnesses to her religion, it just means that she must convince them that X is the truth. Of course, converting someone to a religion is one strong way of doing this, but that's not all there is to it.

Also, a gold truth doesn't necessarily have to refer to what we'd call magic. Any lie that is believed by all witnesses becomes a truth with Beato's theory.
Then again, I can't prove this particular interpretation. I just think it's more simple and general.

Of course, as I've already said before, I don't think it has to be an actual lie. As long as everyone believes in it, it becomes a gold truth, regardless of whether it was true or not in the first place. Hence the cat box.

Edit: I guess, all things considered, doctrine works well enough, just not in the normal sense of the word.
Well considering how she reacts to George saying magic wasn't part of their relationship in the manga. If she is really telling people these "catbox lies" I think she at least believes they are true. Even Beatrice believed Sakutarou was the only one of his kind ever made, but when she tried to say it in red she couldn't say he was the only one Rosa ever made. It was true for her, but unfortunately she couldn't say it.

It might be better to call them "half truths" rather than lies.
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Old 2010-03-25, 22:56   Link #7079
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
That's why Kinzo's corpse is always used for one of the twilights.
In episode 2, which twilight was Kinzo's corpse used for?

I love the theory Chronotrig. I hope this puts all the doubters to rest once and for all. Good job.
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Old 2010-03-25, 22:58   Link #7080
Judoh
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In episode 2, which twilight was Kinzo's corpse used for?

I love the theory Chronotrig. I hope this puts all the doubters to rest once and for all. Good job.
Don't count on it.
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