[Anime] Umineko - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[D3monicWolv3s]

Well the other reasons I'm thinking the faces could be mutilated:

A) To help hide how long they have been dead, not really sure to explain this. But I believe the longer they have been dead, their face muscles untighten, and lose the expression they had when they died. So it would help the doctor, since he could easily make up a time, and tell them not to touch the bodies until police show up.

B) They were smiling/making an unnatural face for someone that was about to be killed. Maybe they saw the gold/saw beatrice and went into an insane laughter with a smile moment/they didn't know at all.

C) To try to hide the identity of the dead? could have had a body set up in a freezer or something... meh

D)Someone has a power that can make a fake body? Maria said Beatrice had the power to "make gold from anything" also something about water...I will have to look up what she said exactly it was during the beach picnic scene. So the ability to make something into something else is possible... farfetched but possible.

Also I am thinking they were stabbed, since the later lines include "gouge and kill"
So I don't really think a gun was involved...

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

Only the four people who stayed up late talking (Krauss, Rudolph, Kyrie, and Rosa) were in the same part of the mansion, in the dining hall. Shannon could have been patrolling any part of the mansion when she was attacked -- she was checking the windows, so she would have been going through each wing on all three floors. Eve, Hideyoshi, and Natsuhi would have been sleeping on the second or third floor. Kinzo's study is on the third floor, but in any event Kinzo probably wouldn't have cared if he did hear gunshots. Gohda, I'm not sure what floor he was on.

And during a typhoon, any muffled gunshot from a distant part of the mansion is probably just going to be thought of as distant thunder.

Though I agree, the four people who were together probably weren't shot. I personally think it most likely they were poisoned -- excluding the grandchildren, any of the survivors could have easily and without arousing suspicion had those four served some food or drink which the culprit had poisoned in advance. Since Gohda would have been the one doing the serving, he then could have been shot to finish off the job.

Um, only if these people have never heard of guns, never heard gunshot before, never heard of gun crimes, will they mistake it for thunder. Trust me gunshot is not just very loud but very different than thunder.
By the same "part" i mean something something like the same building. A gunshot should be loud enough to travel through an entire building even if it's such a noise-absorbing wall.

[MikaMikado]

I think that their faces had bean mutilated to hide the WAY of murder. If we see what the person who did all of this acted like, she TRIED to make it seem as if there is a 19th person here (or it is Beatrice, but let's exclude that for we have to few info).

After several analysis's I've read the most probable killers were: Natsuhi, Kannon and Genji.

Except for Genji both the other culprits have a weaker body, and even Genji wasn't looking like the most powerful person, just average. So how could they kill the others (mainly Gohda who is very strong). Obvious choice is a gun, perhaps a sword/knive - but that has a very strong fail rate, Gohda would AT LEAST have resisted. And there are no traces of even having torn clothing or body wounds. So that's rather improbable. There is also the possibility of poison.
So guns and poison. I can't do anything with the poison, but IF the weapon would be a gun, and the most deadly one hit kill shots would've been made (HEADSHOT), that would mean that there should be a bullet wound on their head.

Now with all the letter crap and other things, the preparator tried very hard to make it seem as if Beatrice does this crap. (It's not important whether she aids him or doesn't exist)

So wouldn't a bullet in the face show that it could've been easily one of them? So that could explain why they were deprived of their faces, and thus the bullet wounds. Krauss and Shannon had a bullet to the side of their head, unlike the others who had it probably up front.

Unless the murderer used poison... but what's cool about that xD?

Also, someone said that I've perhaps read the manga or played the VN. Yes, I HAVE played the VN and read the manga up until the first twilight. So am I breaking the rules? No, because the rules are that I cannot bring manga and VN spoilers. If something already happened in the anime, but studio DEEN messed it up, then it's not a spoiler. After all, it is what the anime watchers SHOULD've seen, no? ^^

[Klashikari]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Oh f*ck, so right after they wake up, Battler and Jessica just go play cards right away, and George read books. What a bunch of healthy kids. Anyways, in that case, just forget my post.

This information was really messed up due how the anime had to rush link the scenes between themselves, but:
it took a lot of time to reach the storehouse of the rose garden. According to the VN, Natsuhi left Kinzo's study and Eva bumped on her a bit before 9AM (or at least after 8AM).
It is also confirmed that Natsuhi was annoyed that breakfast wasn't ready after past 8AM when she got back from Kinzo's study.

For your instance, the children woke up around 7AM (a bit before that, according to Battler).

Originally Posted by D3monicWolv3s

Well the other reasons I'm thinking the faces could be mutilated:

A) To help hide how long they have been dead, not really sure to explain this. But I believe the longer they have been dead, their face muscles untighten, and lose the expression they had when they died. So it would help the doctor, since he could easily make up a time, and tell them not to touch the bodies until police show up.

B) They were smiling/making an unnatural face for someone that was about to be killed. Maybe they saw the gold/saw beatrice and went into an insane laughter with a smile moment/they didn't know at all.

C) To try to hide the identity of the dead? could have had a body set up in a freezer or something... meh

D)Someone has a power that can make a fake body? Maria said Beatrice had the power to "make gold from anything" also something about water...I will have to look up what she said exactly it was during the beach picnic scene. So the ability to make something into something else is possible... farfetched but possible.

Also I am thinking they were stabbed, since the later lines include "gouge and kill"
So I don't really think a gun was involved...

A) That doesn't work: Rigor Mortis affects the whole body. If you want to disrupt the estimation of the time of death, you need to screw the whole body, not the face alone.
Regardless if Nanjo is in cahoot or not, the fact the faces are crushed should not affect his judgment. And if he was in cahoot, backing any time of death doesn't need anything special.

B) You can change the expression of a corpse without much trouble.

Originally Posted by MikaMikado

Unless the murderer used poison... but what's cool about that xD?

As you can see, the modus operandi doesn't matter considering how the face were crushed. Therefore, using poison being not cool or so is irrelevant.

Also, someone said that I've perhaps read the manga or played the VN. Yes, I HAVE played the VN and read the manga up until the first twilight. So am I breaking the rules? No, because the rules are that I cannot bring manga and VN spoilers. If something already happened in the anime, but studio DEEN messed it up, then it's not a spoiler. After all, it is what the anime watchers SHOULD've seen, no? ^^

You are not supposed to make statements without providing elements that back up your point clearly. This is a FIRST TIME viewers, so starting with such advantage make the whole thing totally useless. You might not have read beyond past a point, but bringing theories without explanations of some facts (like Natsuhi and Shannon) make the whole thing baseless and not suited for people who do not have any VN knowledge.
That is the reason why VN players are only providing elements for anime watchers without giving them theories. Therefore, if you use theories that require VN or manga knowledge, please at least bring the FACTS that back it up (anime watchers aren't some crystal seer you see) and only if it is the scope of the progression of the plot. Otherwise, I will have to ask you not to post anymore in this thread (because otherwise, it wouldn't be anything different than a VN reader feigning ignorance and offering theories for the hell of it).

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by MikaMikado

I think that their faces had bean mutilated to hide the WAY of murder. If we see what the person who did all of this acted like, she TRIED to make it seem as if there is a 19th person here (or it is Beatrice, but let's exclude that for we have to few info).

After several analysis's I've read the most probable killers were: Natsuhi, Kannon and Genji.

Except for Genji both the other culprits have a weaker body, and even Genji wasn't looking like the most powerful person, just average. So how could they kill the others (mainly Gohda who is very strong). Obvious choice is a gun, perhaps a sword/knive - but that has a very strong fail rate, Gohda would AT LEAST have resisted. And there are no traces of even having torn clothing or body wounds. So that's rather improbable. There is also the possibility of poison.
So guns and poison. I can't do anything with the poison, but IF the weapon would be a gun, and the most deadly one hit kill shots would've been made (HEADSHOT), that would mean that there should be a bullet wound on their head.

Now with all the letter crap and other things, the preparator tried very hard to make it seem as if Beatrice does this crap. (It's not important whether she aids him or doesn't exist)

So wouldn't a bullet in the face show that it could've been easily one of them? So that could explain why they were deprived of their faces, and thus the bullet wounds. Krauss and Shannon had a bullet to the side of their head, unlike the others who had it probably up front.

Unless the murderer used poison... but what's cool about that xD?

Also, someone said that I've perhaps read the manga or played the VN. Yes, I HAVE played the VN and read the manga up until the first twilight. So am I breaking the rules? No, because the rules are that I cannot bring manga and VN spoilers. If something already happened in the anime, but studio DEEN messed it up, then it's not a spoiler. After all, it is what the anime watchers SHOULD've seen, no? ^^

You forgot to mention Nanjo, the doctor. If he's the killer, the victims' time of death might well be less than 6 hours, basically making the whole killing process much easier to perform. Not to mention he might lie about the identity of the corpses. One or more of them could well be replacements.

[Klashikari]

Nanjo never confirmed the identity of the dead. Actually, everyone recognized them themselves.

Also, I added the time approximation when the kids woke up, and when they approximately found the corpses.

[ferthepoet]

here are some of thoughts, like some tohers here I am watching the anime then reading the visual novel up to the point of the anime so I´ve only read the visual novel up to when they find the corpses int he First Twilight.

1. Am I the only one thinking that it could had happened something like the first scene of The Dark Night where they comitted the crime then the accomplices started killing themselves one by one until only one was left....

2.I´m thinking Ghoda and Krauss were definately into it they poisoned the others then Goda killed Krauss, the mark of Blood on Natsumi´s room was probably Krauss trying to enter his wifes room either because he thought she was the one who betrayed him or to ask her for help.... Mastermind then killed Ghoda and Shannon who was just someone convenient to round the number to six..

3.If this work like Higurashi in following chapters probably it wouldn´t be exact same six who die in the first twilight that would mean the ones who died everytime are important while the other are ramdom...

4. I´m almost sure it was Kanon who gave the letter to Maria, it is not so clear in the anime but in the VN the only people without Strong alabys for that moment were Natsuhi (who was sleeping and it is the most obvious suspect to the point you have to believe she is a red heering) Rosa (who is making the questioning herself so does not have to explain where she was) and Kanon (who has a bad alaby, was with shannon and the old maid up until he was sent to the go get the children at the guesthouse so he could have given Maria the umbrella along the way) additionally Kanon seems to me very effeminate in the anime (looks and voice) which may be the way of the producers telling us he could make a convincing Beatrice in Drag....

5. think there might be something about the Breast Joke the old maid made when she asked batler to touch her breast.... maybe she longs to be young and beautiful again and believes Beatrice can help make her young again which would be her motivation to participate, she is not likely the mastermind but could be an accomplice.....

6. If the identity of any of the supposed death is mistaken and the culprit is one of the supposedly death I think it would definately be Rudolf....

7. Please correct me if I´m wrong but wasn´t the Amulet in Natsuhi´s room hung from the inside side of the door knob? if this was the case there was no way the killer outside could have known about the amulet rendering the theory that he killer decided not to kill Natushi to give the illusion the amulet worked Void

[Klashikari]

Yes, the scorpion charm was indeed hung from the inside.

[ferthepoet]

I think we could try and make a list of people who we can definately rule out and those we can´t

I think we can definately rule out:

Battler: Protagonist, main POV of the VN, most unlikely person to be the culprit
Maria: Too young, could be used, manipulated or possesed into participating but it is extemely unlikely she is the mastermind.
George: not that young and ambitious but seems to love Shannon too much to kill her
Shannon: Was killed, her face was not totally smashed, seems innocent, could have be involved on something if ordered by Kinzo but definately not the mastermind and not involved in the kililngs
Kyrie: I just do not think is her, she has little to gain and I think we´ll get more discussions between her and battler in the future episodes which would be importat for solving the mistery
Ghoda: Might have been an accompliced but is definately not the mastermind or he would not have died.

[Ithekro]

I wouldn't rule out the protagonist based on other stories I've seen or read in the past. Though Battler has no motive that I can see at this point, I'd like to have him as an option still.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Um, only if these people have never heard of guns, never heard gunshot before, never heard of gun crimes, will they mistake it for thunder. Trust me gunshot is not just very loud but very different than thunder.
By the same "part" i mean something something like the same building. A gunshot should be loud enough to travel through an entire building even if it's such a noise-absorbing wall.

A gunshot is about 150 decibels, or less if subsonic ammunition is used. Even your cheap motel, if it's built to current code, will have walls with an STC of 45 in practice, meaning each wall will drop a sound on the other side by about 45 decibels. More solid construction can reduce a sound by 60 dB or more, and it's probably safe to say that Kinzo didn't cheap out on his mansion.

If you assume you'd have to reduce the gunshot below 50 dB to be mistaken as a crack of thunder, that's 2 solid walls or 3 cheap walls. (Nearby thunder is about 120 decibels, minus of course the STC of your outdoor wall).

Thunder can often sound similar to a gunshot; obviously there are different types of thunder (and different types of gunshot) but a loud crack of thunder can sound similar to the loud crack of a gun.

[Alaya]

About gun shot sounds, you cannot rule out the possibility of equipping silencer with the gun (I think silencer already exist in 1986).
We don't know what cause their death yet, so opening up options would be fine. It can be anything, stab a knife to their faces, gun shot in their faces, poisons, etc.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by ferthepoet

3.If this work like Higurashi in following chapters probably it wouldn´t be exact same six who die in the first twilight that would mean the ones who died everytime are important while the other are ramdom...

If this works like Higurashi, there's no guarantee either the culprit or the motive would remain the same.

7. Please correct me if I´m wrong but wasn´t the Amulet in Natsuhi´s room hung from the inside side of the door knob? if this was the case there was no way the killer outside could have known about the amulet rendering the theory that he killer decided not to kill Natushi to give the illusion the amulet worked Void

That could be explained in one of two ways:
1. Natsuhi was in on it from the beginning, and used the amulet and "blood" as a way to deflect suspicion off of herself.

2. The killer unlocked the door (master key?) and saw the charm, and for whatever reason wanted to make it look like the charm had an effect, so they locked the door, did the trick with the paint/blood, and killed someone else.

[ferthepoet]

just another thought,

There is 19 character that altough we have not been properly introduced to had been referred to and could be involved and is the captain of the boat that takes them to the island, maybe even there are additional crewman for the boat..... they could have docked on the opposite side of the island where they wont notice them....

They can be technically not in the island but instead just very near the shore fitting Kyrie´s theory and still be able to go in the land quick for doing something like cutting the telephone lines or painting the witchcraft sign then retreat back to their bote

[cicero]

Originally Posted by MikaMikado

After several analysis's I've read the most probable killers were: Natsuhi, Kannon and Genji.

For Kannon, it's meaningful that she is shown picking up the phone trying to call Gohda (or Genji, I can't remember). No one else was around, so it's not like she was acting. She didn't seem to expect the phone lines to be down either. This would be a rather strange thing to do if one was in on the plot.
Incidentally, the internal (room to room, room to kitchen, etc.) phone lines being down seems interesting. That seems like the kind of thing you could only do by messing up the fuse box somehow.

Originally Posted by ferthepoet

7. Please correct me if I´m wrong but wasn´t the Amulet in Natsuhi´s room hung from the inside side of the door knob? if this was the case there was no way the killer outside could have known about the amulet rendering the theory that he killer decided not to kill Natushi to give the illusion the amulet worked Void

Originally Posted by Goilveig

That could be explained in one of two ways:
1. Natsuhi was in on it from the beginning, and used the amulet and "blood" as a way to deflect suspicion off of herself.

2. The killer unlocked the door (master key?) and saw the charm, and for whatever reason wanted to make it look like the charm had an effect, so they locked the door, did the trick with the paint/blood, and killed someone else.

Natsuhi would have to do it spur-of-the-moment though, since she could hardly have predicted she would receive the amulet. Daring and highly intuitive, but probably the entire set of murders would be.

Originally Posted by ferthepoet

I think we could try and make a list of people who we can definately rule out and those we can´t

I think we can definately rule out:

Battler: Protagonist, main POV of the VN, most unlikely person to be the culprit
Maria: Too young, could be used, manipulated or possesed into participating but it is extemely unlikely she is the mastermind.
George: not that young and ambitious but seems to love Shannon too much to kill her
Shannon: Was killed, her face was not totally smashed, seems innocent, could have be involved on something if ordered by Kinzo but definately not the mastermind and not involved in the kililngs
Kyrie: I just do not think is her, she has little to gain and I think we´ll get more discussions between her and battler in the future episodes which would be importat for solving the mistery
Ghoda: Might have been an accompliced but is definately not the mastermind or he would not have died.

Battler: As already pointed out, Battler being the protagonist probably slightly increases his chances of being the killer, given how stories like this tend to be structured. His alibi at the times of the killings seems fairly solid, though, since he played cards with the rest, then went to bed later on. He'd then have to get up later, kill everyone, and have nanjo in cahoots to lie about the death time, while cleaning up and going back to bed without Maria/Jessica noticing. Seems unlikely.
Maria: Ignoring supernatural, yeah this is pretty unlikely.
George: It is unlikely that he would kill Shannon, yes, but it's important to note that he seemed completely unfazed until it was revealed that Shannon was dead, and then he freaked out. It's possible he was working with the killers and was promised that Shannon wouldn't be killed, only she had to be because she discovered the killers (ironically because of his proposal. This would be just desserts if only it didn't suck so much for Shannon). This would explain both the nonchalance and sudden shock. He knew Shannon was missing, but didn't seem worried at all until he asked. Then again, what kind of guy proposes, and then helps kill 6 people...

[Klashikari]

Actually no. This kind of stories are generally following the etiquette and rules of detective novel, which actually forbid the detective nor the narrator to be the culprit (which is Battler in this case). See the Knox’s Ten Commandments.

[Ithekro]

Do we actually know Battler's role yet...aside from him being the first one shown in the OP (twice on the same screen), and at the end pointing? He's narrating now, so the assumption is that he's the protagonist, but there have been too many "the killer tells the story" tales of late where you don't realize that the guy you are following around with is the killer until the end...sometimes they even switch it up by having him not even remember doing it until the end either. That whole "unreliable narrator" option. However since the story so far has shifted focus a few times as to who we are seeing thing from, we don't quite have enough proof that we have an "unreliable narrator" plus he has a decent alibi so far.

[Karlson]

Here's a list of what the killer(s) had to do:

-kill 6 people
-drag their corpses to the shed
-disfigure the faces
-paint the circle of the shed door
-paint Natsuhi's door with blood/paint
-destroy any visible traces of the mess left behind from the killings

Now let's ask ourselves this...If you were the killer working alone and had to do all this...would 5-6 hours be enough time to pull it off? I can see why the multiple killers theory is speculated when you take all that into account.

For this case I'm gonna assume the killer is working alone.

I think we've done enough theorizing that the possiblity of all the victims dying within a couple minutes of eachother is possible even with just one killer through means that don't cause bleeding right away.

As for dragging the corpses to the shed, it would be rather useful for the killer to use a wheel-barrel or something that can carry more than one corpse with at a time. It would obviously need to have been oiled at the joints of the wheel on a regular basis so as to not hear any squealing noises from it. Otherwise the killer would have to carry the bodies one at a time. This would be a rather lengthy process especially considering it would be taxing on the shoulder to carry that kind of weight, that kind of a distance, that many times.

Then you have the disfiguring of the faces. If this was done to erase any traces of how they actually died this would take a long time too. Likely this ended up being the case since that might explain why Shannon and Krauss were only partially done.

As for the painting of both the shed door as well as Natsuhi's bedroom door, it had to look convincing and not the work of an amateur if the killer is trying to make it look like demon magic was involved. The circle looked like it took awhile. The bedroom door likely didn't take nearly as long but if it's blood on not just red paint, then likely the door being painted happened right after the killings too and at least one bleeding corpse was required to do it (in the case that it is blood). That could mean one of the victims died by ways of stabbing, or gunfire, but the killer could also have simply split open a wound after the victim died too.

So after trying to get all of the aforementioned done, the killer still has to get rid of any visible evidence as well. The length of time this process takes is completely dependant on what methods were used. That is why I think for at least the majority of deaths it was either poisoning or suffocation/choking. These methods would greatly minimize the time of this particular process which would be of great convenience for the killer.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Actually no. This kind of stories are generally following the etiquette and rules of detective novel, which actually forbid the detective nor the narrator to be the culprit (which is Battler in this case). See the Knox’s Ten Commandments.

Knox's Ten Commandments are generally regarded as a kind of basic formula for people who wanted to right at that time (the Golden Age of Detective Novels). It was considered fair among fellow authors to abide to that code.

But today enough authors/screenwriters/playwrights tossed those rules away long ago.
Even Agatha Christie tossed some of those rules overboard (e.g. The Mousetrap).

And as already mentioned by Ithekro we also have the whole unreliable narrator (at the latest introduced in the American Modernism, with Fitzgerald and others).

It would be kinda boring if we could really say that all those elements could be eliminated from a story...that's the reason why they were dropped, because it became too forseeable.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

A gunshot is about 150 decibels, or less if subsonic ammunition is used. Even your cheap motel, if it's built to current code, will have walls with an STC of 45 in practice, meaning each wall will drop a sound on the other side by about 45 decibels. More solid construction can reduce a sound by 60 dB or more, and it's probably safe to say that Kinzo didn't cheap out on his mansion.

If you assume you'd have to reduce the gunshot below 50 dB to be mistaken as a crack of thunder, that's 2 solid walls or 3 cheap walls. (Nearby thunder is about 120 decibels, minus of course the STC of your outdoor wall).

Thunder can often sound similar to a gunshot; obviously there are different types of thunder (and different types of gunshot) but a loud crack of thunder can sound similar to the loud crack of a gun.

Ok, this discussion is getting ridiculous. For one thing, my physics is not good enough to confirm what you just said but I'll just give these 2 points.
1. I have never heard thunder that sounds like gunshot. Both are very loud but one sounds natural and the other sounds very mechanical.
2. This ain't a battlefield. It's a crime where the killer wants to hide his/her identity. Why the f*ck would the killer not use a gun with silencer? It will just increase the risk of someone noticing the killing process. To send out at least 6 gunshots in one night is not something that people will ignore. Of course, there is a possibility that the killer is a retard but I highly doubt it.