2010-05-09, 08:08 | Link #9821 |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Abrupt tangent. I wonder how much gold is Kinzo really supposed to have.
10 metric tons of gold is just above half a cubic meter. Even if we remember it's in bars, and therefore takes considerably more space, it still would fit in a single cubic meter stack. But every time the stock of gold is described or drawn, it appears the pile is much larger - at least three times more in the anime - and nobody seems to count the bars. Also of note is the fact that one bar normally seems to be assumed to be 10kg in the text, and the anime even goes so far as to draw that on the bar itself. Historically, gold bars normally weigh a whole number of ounces, not in metric units, and the closest standard size is 400oz, which translates to 12.44kg. I really wonder where he got it, but if all of those subtleties were taken into account by Ryukishi, it can't be official foundry gold of any kind.
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2010-05-09, 09:41 | Link #9822 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009
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There's no reason to doubt he has the all the gold, we know it's been seen and used in the past, and Eva, Rosa and Battler finds where it's hidden. Even more so, you seem to be indicating there's more than ten tonnes there. I thought the whole point of ten tonnes was to be an unrealisticly huge amount in the first place. More would just be... ridiculous, in my opinion. |
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2010-05-09, 11:44 | Link #9823 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Quote:
It may of course be that Ryukishi did not account for the density of gold and imagined a 10kg bar to be about 1.5 times bigger than it really should be, but I'm certain he did at least some research on that one. Quote:
The whole issue may seem beside the point, being part of the plot premise, but some hints about where did Beatrice-1 come from may be around there somewhere. Also, here's one other interesting calculation: Let us assume that the 100 million yen found by Nanjo's son in his deposit box really existed and were not fake. Let us now hypothesise that they originate in the legendary gold stash. In 1986, each 10kg gold bar would cost just over 10 million yen. Let us assume that George's estimate is correct instead and say it's 20 million, because if Ryukishi did any calculations, that's the value he was using. It takes five gold bars to fill one deposit box with cash. If there really were 20 or more boxes, that's 100 bars. Ryukishi is clearly aware of how difficult it is to transport a metric ton secretly, as George expounds on that for a whole page. Generally, you can expect to carry at most five bars at once, (50kg) and you can't carry that much undetected. The most you could hide in a normal luggage of any kind is about 10kg, and even that is quite heavy. It's extraordinarily difficult to move 100 bars of gold without being found out, as to do it secretly you need 100 man/trips, so one of the following should be true:
Which do you think is more likely?
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2010-05-09, 12:24 | Link #9824 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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The background might not be all that reliable for the size considering the state of mind the people who find it are in. Most of the backgrounds he gets are from real rooms and houses anyway so if he didn't draw the gold bars himself he might have taken pictures of real ones and made them look like his other backgrounds. Plus the size you think they look like might just be because of perspective. I mean the people who find the gold are really excited when they do find it. Showing the gold from a close up view would be one way to capture those feelings. Another way to capture that is make it look like there is no end to the amount of gold you can see in the room.
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2010-05-09, 13:35 | Link #9825 |
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
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Random tangent:
Is it ever said in Red how Kinzo obtained his gold? Or, rather, what happened to his family? It's said that his immediate family died in the Earthquake, but this hasn't been exactly confirmed. I've recently been thinking how similar Battler is to Kinzo. This is referenced to in the game in a few places. I've also been thinking, what if this earthquake is actually a cover-up for another tragic event? We know that Ryukishi has used cover-up stories before ("The Great Hinamizawa Disaster," anyone?) so it's not outside the realm of possibility. Perhaps what is happening to Battler on Rokkenjima actually happened to Kinzo as a child, too? Pardon me for not remembering the details, but I know that Kinzo's family died a long time ago and he was presented the gold from his "alchemy advisor" Beatrice. So, I'm kind of curious about Kinzo's past now. After, history does tend to repeat itself; perhaps we can find more Kinzo-Battler parallels to help solve the mystery. After all, Family dies in accident > Kinzo becomes family head. He meets Beatrice > Kinzo gets gold. So, Family dies in "accident" > Battler becomes head (At least in Episode 5) He meets Beatrice > Battler gets gold? Who knows, I may be completely wrong, but it's worth considering. |
2010-05-09, 15:26 | Link #9826 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Quote:
However, the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake is not just some earthquake, but a very real historic event, which significantly affected the entire Japan, not just the Ushiromiya family. It could accidentally cover up a serial murder if Ryukishi was so inclined, because due to the predominantly wooden architecture of the time and an unlucky typhoon, it was accompanied by firestorms. But all hints seem to point to Kinzo being in Taipei, Taiwan at the moment it hit, so unlike Battler, at the very least he wasn't present. There are a number of candidates to be the source of the gold, if we assume it actually has any historical sources:
I think that's all of them, at least I couldn't find anything else sufficiently likely in our time period and searching for treasure stories from before Meiji is tricky. In my eyes, the Russian Empire stockpile and the Yamashita treasure seem to be the two most likely contenders, with the Yamashita treasure being the strongest.
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2010-05-09, 15:35 | Link #9827 |
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Join Date: May 2009
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Mind you, there was a La Plata Theory about the epitaph, so Argentina as a midpoint destination is not as crazy as it might appear. There's also a fair number of Japanese in South America. Having said that, I believe the La Plata Theory was largely discredited by ep5, which gives it an outside chance.
How popular are the Russian and Yamashita gold stories in Japan? I'm thinking it would be something people would be inclined to think about tangentially when thinking of gold stories. Westerners would immediately go "Oh right, like Nazi gold!" but that may not be true of Japanese readers and authors. What I'm saying is, is this information as well-known and widespread as the whole Nazi thing is here? |
2010-05-09, 15:40 | Link #9828 |
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
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I realize that the Kanto Earthquake was indeed a real earthquake, but I guess my question is how do we know that the family really was there in the first place? Or that it affected them?
(As in, the family was dead before the event happened and THEN the earthquake occured, or something.) I'm not sure, it just seems a little fishy to me that no specifics are given about Kinzo's rise to power. It's kind of like how magicians do their magic tricks: they rely on the art of distraction. It's implied that the main secret about Kinzo's past is his affair with Beatrice, but maybe Ryukishi07 is just trying to direct our attention away from the past generations of the Ushiromiya family. Something like this could have happened: 1.) Ushiromiya family reunion in Japan, at the family's headquarters. 2.) Murders occur at the reunion in a similar fashion to that at Rokkenjima. 3.) Kinzo usurps the family head and obtains the gold. 4.) Kinzo flees the country with his gold. 5.) Before the events could be investigated, the Kanto Earthquake happens and effectively destroys the crime scene. Although you are right, there is not much evidence supporting this claim at all. I guess I'm just looking too far into this. |
2010-05-09, 15:48 | Link #9829 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Well we do get a bit of explanation on that in episode 1 and 2. If I remember right Kinzo's entire family probably wasn't killed because even though he did become the head it was said that the main branch treated him like a puppet. Kinzo didn't even get to chose the person he was supposed to marry everything was arranged and prepared for him. He was really just a figurehead that worked for the family. That said I'm sure SOME of his family might have died in the Kanto earthquake, but definitely not all of them. And really the main point about the Kanto earthquake in Umineko was that the damages ruined the Ushiromiya family business leaving Kinzo to be chosen to revive it because the main family couldn't decide who among them should be the heir. All of their resources and assets were lost in the disaster. Kinzo definitely did survive that earthquake, but there is actually nothing saying that his family all died in the earthquake like with the Rokken isle explosion accident.
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2010-05-09, 16:08 | Link #9830 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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While trying to determine how famous it could be, I have finally found a pre-Meiji candidate - the Tokugawa treasure. That has a Japanese page but doesn't have an English one. There's also apparently "M Funds" -- funds secreted away by US command in Japan during the occupation period and used to fund black operations, which is also a strong historical story candidate, if I'm reading it right. Even then, the list of possible sources is rather short, so I expect that with some digging a likely theory can be cooked up. Quote:
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2010-05-09, 17:07 | Link #9831 |
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Join Date: May 2009
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Some thoughts on possible connections:
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2010-05-09, 18:04 | Link #9832 | |||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Quote:
"M Funds" are apparently frequently used in a 419-type scam in Japan these days. Amusingly, the name "William Frederick Murcutt" which is supposedly the origin of "M" in "M Funds" is completely missing from the English web, I'm not sure the gentleman actually existed or at least, his name isn't written properly. So we might be dealing with an indigenous Japanese treasure story here, which complicates research a lot. Curiously, it is never written just what kind of services did Kinzo's business perform for Americans before the Korean War hit. While the mansion has been completed during the Korean War itself, it is likely to have taken long enough to have started before it hit. Also, even if we assume captain Kawabata is rounding his estimates of Kuwadorian deliveries up, it is likely that he started those before the Korean War started, it's two and a half years lead, which would imply Kuwadorian was completed before the Korean War and before the main mansion. Kinzo is actually implied to have acquired Rokkenjima before the occupation ended, (because the process, as described, involved the occupation authorities, otherwise the island would have ended up property of Tokyo Metropolitan Area authorities even if US Army wanted a storage depot there) so this is probably the case. Quote:
Further research on the Russian Empire gold indicates that almost exactly 10 tons of that gold missed the Bank of Tokyo and ended up in possession of the 59th regiment of the 14th division of IJA (I wish I knew what the proper Japanese terms these numbers go with are.) in Utsunomiya, not listed as registered trophies. In the 1920s, when rumours spread about the gold being stored in a warehouse, the division command supposedly set the warehouses on fire and hauled the gold off 'somewhere towards Tokyo', whereupon the trace is completely lost. The source for that particular story is a non-fiction book by a prolific Japanese writer Matsumoto Seichō (松本 清張), "Showa-shi hakkutsu",《昭和历史発掘》 so at least it's well documented and should be a relatively well known story. That's about as far as I can get on this lead without getting off my chair. It's a bit too early for Kinzo to have attained it, though, and we know he had to have acquired it during the WWII. Whoever had that particular stash had to be an IJA officer, and how could a Western-looking Beatrice end up involved is unclear, so I suspect that is a dead end -- even though that's the only batch of gold in the entire list I'm pretty sure really existed. Quote:
P.S: Oh, the Stakes. Almost forgot. Would you think that for a Japanese, Arkham, MA is "near New York City"?
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2010-05-09, 18:44 | Link #9835 | |
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Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: Raiding ur fridge
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1D6 investigators die every twilight Though Oliver has a point there, the books in Kinzo's study will contain fakes as well as "euthentic" ones. Supposed copies of the Lovecraft books would be good ones |
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2010-05-10, 07:46 | Link #9836 |
別にいいけど
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: forever lost inside a logic error
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Well I'd be surprised if Kinzo never had a fake copy of the Necronomicon however so far there has never been any reference to Lovecraft's mythology and it'd be kinda lame if it were to pop up at this point.
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2010-05-10, 14:23 | Link #9837 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
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I hate to be the person that asks this but as I am too lazy to read back through the past 100 or so pages I will anyway. I am curious as to who you guys believe the culprit(s) is. I only ask because I am wondering if there are any current theories that seem to be widely held or simply make the most sense. I have a handful of different theories but at best they only fit a few episodes and at worst they are situational. For example one of my theories that fit EP 1 and 2 is somewhat strengthened in EP 3 but practically crumbles with EP 4 and with the out of game TIPS. I keep looking at things from all sorts of different angles and coming up with a multitude of theories and I cannot quite get all of them to fit perfectly. I just wanna see if there is something that mentioned that I have either forgot, overlooked or just didn't think of.
Personally my number 1 theory (albeit I am grabbing at straws when it comes to motive) is that Rosa is the mastermind. EP 1 and 2 I can make fit if some if not all of the servants helped her even if its unintentionally. EP 3 diverts in that Eva finds the gold and Rosa finds out about this. Lets say Rosa in fact dies in this episode and the servants, not knowing she is dead or that Eva found the gold as they faked their deaths, continued her plan without her. EP 4 however is where I start to lose track of things, while it makes a bit of sense for EP 5 again as her plans change when battler finds, and leads everyone to the gold. I have not read EP 6 yet though, though I know the gist of it, and so cannot make any sort of comment there without examining everything. I highly doubt this is actually the case but when I started thinking about it, it seemed to make sense to me. |
2010-05-10, 15:34 | Link #9838 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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I guess I'll just list my favorite culprits then.
From the time I've been here I've suggested quite a few different masterminds 1. George 2. Kyrie 3. Jessica 4. Asumu (Ssol's theory) I like George as a mastermind the best for the following reasons.
Rosa and Eva are really red herring culprits to me sorry. EDIT: A working theory I have is that the mastermind/handler (whoever it is) Choses Sub-culprits to lead certain groups, which the leaders of which are different in each game. There are many factions people on here have suggested. i.e team beatrice, team fake deaths, team epitaph, team closed room and stakes, team justice, team bomb, team rescue, etc The leaders of whatever group chose accomplices like you would chose the players on your team in a basketball game. Since the leaders are chosen at random the accomplices are always different. For first twilight fakery though it's a lot easier if you suspect Jessica is the person in charge of that group. Since she has make up and stuff and she's involved in at least two of the more obvious fake death plots. And even if the leaders aren't different every time I suppose accomplices could still be chosen at random if you believe in the author theory.
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Last edited by Judoh; 2010-05-10 at 15:58. |
2010-05-10, 16:14 | Link #9839 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2009
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Hmmm, never really though much of George as a culprit but it does make sense. Kyrie is by far the one I have had the most suspicion in, though I have not been able to string together a decent theory as to how events take place with her (which annoys me to no end). Its a good thing I am replaying the first four, I can direct where I look. Thanks.
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2010-05-10, 16:18 | Link #9840 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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Well the theme of Umineko is love. A Bonny and Clyde type of murder with either George or Jessica as masterminds would fit perfectly.
Plus if Shkanon is true that automatically makes George and Jessica suspicious because they would have to be in on it. I'm also partial to the idea that Jessica is the other Battler too.
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