[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 3 Banquet of the golden witch

[Arbane the Terrible]

Originally Posted by Aebliss

I return to my thoughts on the family symbol, the one-winged eagle. I see in some of images that

Spoiler:

Virgilia

also bears the sign of the one-winged eagle. @_@ So was it possibly her sign to begin with, then adopted by Beatrice and finally by Kinzou?

Spoiler:

If the one-winged eagle is the mark of the Endless Witch, who can kill, restore, kill, restore, and so on until it no longer amuses her, it would make sense. Either that, or Virgilia adopted the sign from Beatrice - or Beatrice and Virgilia both adopted it from the Ushiromiya family?

I wish there were a way to get a conclusive answer to this question ...

One theory I've heard that I like is that Kumasawa was the original "Beatrice"--Kinzo's lover long ago, and that the "Beatrice" Rosa met was their daughter. (Presumably, the "Real" Beatrice from Episode 2 was that girl's daughter, if she actually existed at all.)

Of course, that's the anti-fantasy theory. One way to test it would be to find some photos of Kinzo (or other Ushiromiyas) from before he became head, and see if they're wearing the crest.

[Smeckledorf]

Concerning Nanjo's death, I have a theory but I am not sure if anyone has thrown this one out there yet.

Spoiler for Episode 3:

Here are my two cents on Nanjo's death. I think it is entirely possible that someone was able to arrive earlier in October and kill him. The red about Battler being suspicious about Eva being the culprit could mean many things, not just about a murder. Of course, this would mean the Dr. Nanjo in every game is a fake. With the words of red as they are I cannot think of any other plausible solution.
Another reason I would have to go with this reasoning is that the red said Jessica's eyes were blocked, not injured or bandaged. There are actually a few vague red statements given for this murder. With my solution there could very will be a reason Nanjo's body was not found, it was not on the island at the start of the game and therefore would not be counted towards the player limit. In conclusion, the Nanjo we see in the game is never the real one if I am right.

[Ithekro]

Aren't Nanjo and Jessica the only ones in the room at the time of the crime stated in red? However is it stated in red that only Eva, Battler, and Jessica are alive at the time of Nanjo's murder?

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Aren't Nanjo and Jessica the only ones in the room at the time of the crime stated in red? However is it stated in red that only Eva, Battler, and Jessica are alive at the time of Nanjo's murder?

Spoiler for Episode/Game 3:

Yes and no. After Nanjo is shown to die on the gameboard everyone on the island but Jessica, Eva and Battler is basically declared dead. Jessica is in the servant's room with Nanjo at the time of the murder, but her eyes were "blocked". My interpretation still fits. Nowhere did Eva-Beatrice say only Jessica, Eva and Battler were alive at that time. Maybe she did in the anime but I am 98% sure that in the visual novel she did not. Keep in mind, that if I am right then that leaves this extra guy still alive or he could have been killed and not found, what ever. But I guess you will not let me claim this without a reason as to why Jessica would be in the servants room with Nanjo.

Spoiler for Episode/Game 4:

Nanjo does not meet Kinzo so he has to do something with his time and being in the servant's room is a good place to hide. Jessica was probably speaking to Kannon in the servant's room seeing as that they have feelings for each other. Finally, Kannon has his back to Nanjo and Jessica is right in front of him sitting down, unable to see Nanjo, and some Nanjo look alike kills Nanjo.

[Arachanox]

I recently spent a few hours running through EP3 in conjunction with these helpful notes in order to draw up an Excel chart which shows where everyone is at every point in the game. It takes into account that Battler's viewpoint is the truth, and so whenever a person's location can be confirmed it is in a red block. Hopefully it can help determine who can and can't be the culprit at any given moment.

The link to it. Contains one major EP4 spoiler.

Spoiler for Example image, EP3 spoilers:

Having thought about its implications a bit, I have come back to the same conclusion that Eva was the culprit, but you know, that's a bit too easy...

[Sute443]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

Having thought about its implications a bit, I have come back to the same conclusion that Eva was the culprit, but you know, that's a bit too easy...

An easy conclusion to come to? Sure. Easy for her to actually be the culprit? I don't think so. Eva and Hideyoshi did leave the conference room during the night, but only for a short time. I doubt that they could have pulled off the setup for the First Twilight in the time they had.

[rogerpepitone]

Part of the web of red text in the anime was translated "At the time of the crime, only Nanjo and Jessica were in the servant's room." What was the original Japanese, and how much flexibility is there in the translation of "At the time of the crime"? (Can it be translated "At the time of his death"?)

[Arachanox]

Originally Posted by Sute443

An easy conclusion to come to? Sure. Easy for her to actually be the culprit? I don't think so. Eva and Hideyoshi did leave the conference room during the night, but only for a short time. I doubt that they could have pulled off the setup for the First Twilight in the time they had.

If we can trust the unconfirmed info that Eva and Hideyoshi were in the dining hall that whole time, then they could not have carried out the First Twilight. But then again, this is assuming that either A. that info is false or B. multiple culprits with multiple motives (i.e. none of the others adults were up to something).

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Part of the web of red text in the anime was translated "At the time of the crime, only Nanjo and Jessica were in the servant's room." What was the original Japanese, and how much flexibility is there in the translation of "At the time of the crime"? (Can it be translated "At the time of his death"?)

つまり、犯行時の使用人室には、南條と朱志香しかいなかったのよ

Time of the crime. There aren't many leeways imho. It certainly doesn't implies death as the word can refer to any kind of crime or offense.

[Sute443]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

If we can trust the unconfirmed info that Eva and Hideyoshi were in the dining hall that whole time, then they could not have carried out the First Twilight. But then again, this is assuming that either A. that info is false or B. multiple culprits with multiple motives (i.e. none of the others adults were up to something).

Hm? What info that they were there the whole time? *Replays the relevant scene.* Ah, so it was said that the parents were together the whole time. Don't know where I got the idea that Eva and Hideyoshi had left at some point. Maybe spillover from Episode 1.

So, yeah, none of the parents could have carried out the First Twilight. Which leaves the suspects as the victims, the cousins, and Nanjo.

[Arbane the Terrible]

Originally Posted by Sute443

So, yeah, none of the parents could have carried out the First Twilight. Which leaves the suspects as the victims, the cousins, and Nanjo.

Or ALL the parents working together....

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

Part of the web of red text in the anime was translated "At the time of the crime, only Nanjo and Jessica were in the servant's room." What was the original Japanese, and how much flexibility is there in the translation of "At the time of the crime"? (Can it be translated "At the time of his death"?)

As Jan-Poo said 'at the time of the crime' is not flexible.

Is case you need the rest of them here is the original japanese (with Chronotrig's translation) for all the red text in that part of the anime:

Spoiler for Anime episode 18 red text:

朱志香負傷後、絵羽は常に戦人の監視下にあった。
After Jessica was injured, Eva was under Battler's surveillance constantly.

よって、絵羽には南條殺しの完全なアリバイがある。
Therefore, Eva has a perfect alibi for Nanjo's murder.

南條の殺人事件発生時、戦人、絵羽、朱志香は生存している。
At the time of Nanjo's murder, Battler, Eva, and Jessica were alive.

犯行時の使用人屋には南條と朱志香しかいなかった。
At the time of the crime, only Nanjo and Jessica were in the servant room.

右代宮朱志香は殺人を犯してはいない！
Jessica Ushiromiya did not commit murder!

絵羽と戦人も南條殺しには関わっていない！！
Eva and Battler weren't involved in Nanjo's murder either!!

この島には１９人以上の人間はいない！
No more than 18 people exist on this island!

南條は他殺、トラップもなく犯人は真正面の至近距離から殺した！
Nanjo's death was a homicide and the culprit killed from point-blank range in front of him!

赤は真実のみを語る。
Red only tells the truth.

[Arachanox]

Originally Posted by Sute443

Hm? What info that they were there the whole time? *Replays the relevant scene.* Ah, so it was said that the parents were together the whole time. Don't know where I got the idea that Eva and Hideyoshi had left at some point. Maybe spillover from Episode 1.

So, yeah, none of the parents could have carried out the First Twilight. Which leaves the suspects as the victims, the cousins, and Nanjo.

According to my chart-thing, my list of possible suspects for the First Twilight agrees with your list, except for Battler.

Battler is left out because Eva said that he wasn't the culprit in red. Under normal circumstances, all of the cousins could not be the culprit for most of the time because Battler was with them constantly; however, during the First Twilight he was asleep and so it's feasible that George snuck out, for instance. I do believe that the cousins have no sufficient motive to commit murder, but since this is from the maker of Higurashi I can't discount the possibility. Nanjo was in the dining hall with the adults until an indeterminate time, because he began dinner with them and is not seen again during the adults' discussion.

According to the magic scenes, the six victims were killed at some time between 12:15 and 12:21, and their deaths are not confirmed by Beatrice in red until 7:00 (assuming you believe that meta-scenes run tangent to the real world chronologically).

Spoiler for EP4 Spoilers:

Of course, Kinzo is thrown out because he is dead the entire time, and there is no unknown person X.

So we have a total of nine suspects, all of which have unconfirmed locations during the First Twilight. I think it would be best for us to skip it for now and work with the later twilights, since we have more info on people's locations. If we can find a suitable culprit (or culprits), we can use one of them in reverse for the First Twilight.

edit: I forgot that Jessica was ruled out by Eva-Beatrice. That means we have eight suspects.

[Arachanox]

For the second twilight (10:30 - 11:00), I will lay out everyone's location specifically. Confirmed locations are in red (meaning Battler's saw the person), while doubt-able locations are in normal colored text.

10:30:

Eva and Rosa have returned from the gold hunt. Eva goes to Hideyoshi and then returns to the lobby. Rosa returns to the lobby independently. (Lobby refers to first-floor guest house room). Shortly thereafter, Eva and Hideyoshi leave the lobby to return to resting.

10:30 + a few minutes:

Maria throws a tantrum upstairs and comes downstairs, followed by all the other cousins. It is confirmed through Battler's sight that himself, Jessica, George, Maria, Rudolf, Kyrie, Krauss, Natushi, Rosa, and Nanjo are in the lobby. Maria is left in Rosa's care, and the cousins + Nanjo return upstairs. Rosa and Maria go into the hallway and supposedly see Hideyoshi and perhaps hear Eva (it is unknown if they actually directly communicated with Eva, or if Hideyoshi was acting as a go-between). Rosa and Maria then go outside to the garden.

10:45:

Rosa and Maria are killed by Eva-Beatrice.

11:00:

Battler, Jessica, George, Rudolf, Kyrie, Krauss, Natushi, Hideyoshi, Nanjo, and POSSIBLY EVA depending on if you think they heard her through the doorway, are gathered in the lobby/hallway asking about Rosa. Rudolf goes outside to look for the two.

11:00 + a few minutes:

Rosa and Maria's deaths are confirmed in red by Beatrice.

During the time of the murder, the cousins are ruled out because Battler was with them. Although Nanjo went upstairs with the cousins, he had his own room, and therefore is suspicious. Our possible suspects are:

-the lobby adults
-Eva and/or Hideyoshi
-Nanjo

Of course, you can mix and match people within the three groups to your liking. In my opinion, three people stand out:

-the Eva/Hideyoshi pair (always plausible, seeing as they are being pinned for most murders in EP3)
-Nanjo (given his habitual solitude and unaccounted location)
-Rudolf (could have 'found' Rosa and Maria in the garden and then killed them)

edit: In fact, looking further down, I believe Rudolf/Kyrie is a strong candidate for the murders besides Eva/Hideyoshi. I'll talk about it later once we get to the mansion running scenes.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

According to the magic scenes, the six victims were killed at some time between 12:15 and 12:21, and their deaths are not confirmed by Beatrice in red until 7:00 (assuming you believe that meta-scenes run tangent to the real world chronologically).

So we have a total of nine suspects, all of which have unconfirmed locations during the First Twilight. I think it would be best for us to skip it for now and work with the later twilights, since we have more info on people's locations. If we can find a suitable culprit (or culprits), we can use one of them in reverse for the First Twilight.

If you're willing to ignore the supposed times of death from the magic scenes, some of the parents can be suspected as well. You can see on the chart that there's a period from 6am, when the conference broke up, until 7am, when the deaths were confirmed, during which the adults broke up into a bunch of small groups. Those groups were not under each others' observation. For instance, Kyrie and Rosa (Group B), who supposedly went back to the guesthouse, were completely unaccounted for during that period.

[Arachanox]

I'm glad you brought this to my attention, but there is a problem. In a span of an hour, they would have to locate the (six) people, kill them, and then set up the very elaborate series of closed rooms that happened. And all the while they would have to avoid all the other adults; I don't think that is very feasible. Possible? I suppose.

The other theory is that all the adults (or most of them) are working together. in that case, why keep up an extended lie to Battler and the cousins, and why fortify themselves in the guest house?

[Metaler]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

I'm glad you brought this to my attention, but there is a problem. In a span of an hour, they would have to locate the (six) people, kill them, and then set up the very elaborate series of closed rooms that happened. And all the while they would have to avoid all the other adults; I don't think that is very feasible. Possible? I suppose.

Maybe this was planned. They could've sent a letter or some other type of notification to each servant, asking each of them to go to a specific location. However, for this theory to work the adults would have to know that

Spoiler for EP4 (major):

Kinzo was already dead. Or, maybe, they had no idea that he was dead and, when they found his body, decided to count him as a victim of the 1st Twilight. This could mean that someone else was the intended victim, but I have no idea who.

If my reasoning is correct, then I believe that it's safe to say that one of the adults is the mastermind, or one of the masterminds. Possibilly Kyrie and Genji.

The other theory is that all the adults (or most of them) are working together. in that case, why keep up an extended lie to Battler and the cousins, and why fortify themselves in the guest house?

To create the illusion that there's a killer out there. This could make the plan much easier to be followed, by manipulating the cousins and making them believe this illusion.

[Arachanox]

Originally Posted by Metaler

To create the illusion that there's a killer out there. This could make the plan much easier to be followed, by manipulating the cousins and making them believe this illusion.

I thought about this a little. But if the adults were working together in a grand plot to rid themselves of the servants and Kinzo, what would this accomplish? They would still have to elaborately kill each other and the cousins if the 'successor' is to get away with all the gold and without any witnesses against them.

Furthermore, I think Rudolf/Kyrie is more likely than Kyrie/Genji, but that's for a later time.

[Metaler]

Originally Posted by Arachanox

I thought about this a little. But if the adults were working together in a grand plot to rid themselves of the servants and Kinzo, what would this accomplish? They would still have to elaborately kill each other and the cousins if the 'successor' is to get away with all the gold and without any witnesses against them.

Furthermore, I think Rudolf/Kyrie is more likely than Kyrie/Genji, but that's for a later time.

I believe this has something to do with Eva discovering the gold. After all, it's quite clear that something REALLY bad happened which completely screwed the plan. This could also explain Rosa's death, since she was the one who gave the hint to Eva. You could say that she was "punished" for her mistake, and Maria had to be killed, since she was a witness.
If that's the case, then the adults didn't know the answer to the epitaph and the location of the gold, except the masterminds.

[Arachanox]

But the masterminds are supposedly among the adults themselves, right?

On the topic of Rosa and Maria's death, who is to say that Maria threw another tantrum, keeping the pair outside longer than expected? Then Rudolf goes out to 'bring them back,' when in fact he is one of the murderers? Rosa wouldn't think that Rudolf was dangerous, so of course she would not fire at him (explaining the five unfired shots). After Rosa was down, dealing with Maria would be easy, and then he merely returns to the house crying for Nanjo to help. I believe it was said that Rudolf shed quite a few tears over their deaths - perhaps he was feeling guilty over what he had done, even though he knew it was necessary for his ultimate plan of inheriting all the wealth.