Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Ithekro]

Even the coups are speed run in Russia these days.

[Yu Ominae]

Putin lost another propaganda chance to "address claims" of corruption made by Prigozhin.

OTOH, some of the analysts who kept an eye on this said that this will not be the last time someone tries this.

[Ithekro]

Might also have shown the Ukrainians several weaknesses in the Russian lines...or the lack of reserves in some areas. This may be exploited in the next week or so.

[Yu Ominae]

Politsiya came back to Rostov. The locals aren't pleased...

[Renegade334]

Seems like Prigozhin and his followers are sort-of being exiled to Belarus, which still places him within Putin's reach. This whole affair feels like a modern take on Shakespeare's Coriolanus even though that play's ending has yet to materialize.

Still, the absurdity of it all is astounding. Prigozhin HAD to have known how much of a fool's errand his little adventure was. Even when you look past the man's bragadoccio, you still cannot fathom how his quixotic expedition would have succeeded. Numerical inferiority, no widespread popular support, several deaths in the VKS (whose boss, incidentally, was considered one of Prigozhin's allies)...this had failure written all over it.

I know that in a previous post I said that all of this could simply amount to a huge nothing burger, but I was not prepared for how anticlimactic the tale's ending would be. Russian outlandishness at its finest, really.

It will be a matter of debate whether Prigozhin finally woke up to reality halfway to Moscow after the first helicopter attacks, forcing him to chose to accept Lukashenko's offers...unless his ultimate goal was something completely different altogether...more than simply embarrassing the military wing of the Kremlin, Shoigu in particular.

Even then, the gamble did not pay off even in its early stages; the false flag op actually drove Putin to side with Shoigu and marked Prigozhin as a clear and present danger to national security.

As I said earlier, there is no going back to the status quo ante. Soldiers died (15, mostly VKS), valuable equipment destroyed...and the government was publicly embarrassed. Putin's strongman shtick has been dented and Russians have been made aware there is a growing chasm in the circles of power and part of the population would prefer to side against the current military chiefs.

You just can't walk away from that scot-free.

Power bid angle put aside, one had to wonder if Prigozhin's real goal was some sort of convoluted exit strategy out of Ukraine he had devised for Wagner. Their troops have pulled back from the frontlines and most of them will be bound for Belarus. He just had to burn bridges to make it happen and create a mantle of moral vindication (seeking justice for the men he'd allegedly lost to blue-on-blue fire) for himself.

It sounds very hackneyed and even though Moscow is now spared from the shadow of military infighting, Prigozhin is nowhere near out of the woods, regardless of what he wanted to achieve. All we need now is for a Photoshopper to make a Thanos meme with Prigozhin's picture and the famous captions: "And what did it cost you?" "Everything."

Only one question remains: Novichok or Kalibr?

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...37054973739010

Vid of Politsiya coming back to Rostov. Crowd shouted at them for leaving the city when Wagner came.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...storm_z_which/

The Storm Z penal unit that teamed up with Wagner is pissed that Prigozhin took the deal.

[Psyco Diver]

The seeds have been planted though, Russia is dealing with a minor group already causing small fires and for a major group like Wagner to turn around is grounds to cause some major questions from the other mercenary groups and even other military officers that are unhappy with this "special operation that is totally not a war". The longer this goes on the more people and groups are going to question Putin's ability to lead

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...71204209795072

OSINT Defender based the news that Shoigu is being detained on Russian Telegram posts.

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...61005515948032

Based question. What happened to Prigozhin?

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Yu Ominae

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...71204209795072

OSINT Defender based the news that Shoigu is being detained on Russian Telegram posts.

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https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...61005515948032

Based question. What happened to Prigozhin?

Presumably in Belarus doing his best to avoid high rises.

[Renegade334]

Allegedly, there were three points in Lukashenko's offer of de-escalation to Prigozhin:
1. Shoigu's ouster from the ministry of defense
2. Amnesty for Wagnerites
3. A ticket to Africa
Third part is not guaranteed and given that Russian police just seized two trucks filled with 4B rubles in cash belonging to Prigozhin, I'd say that particular charter jet has a good chance of getting Malaysian Airlines'd.
If Prigozhin doesn't get Novichok'ed in his sleep in the first place.

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status...Cz1Y7j8rUuAAAA

Someone did this video in Rostov yesterday of Wagner contractors getting orders from Vkusno i tochka (Delicious, full stop), basically Russian successor to McDonalds after they left the Russian market.

[Yu Ominae]

Prigozhin is seemingly not out of the woods.

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...54849847209993

A Russian Telegram post mentions that the Prosecutor General wants to prosecute the guy.

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https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...65807649460224

Telegram post from Fighterbomber, related to the Russian Air Force, reports that most of its facilities are being occupied by Wagner contractors despite amnesties given to them.

[Roger Rambo]

I think the situation is more complicated than that. Putin has given some weasel words about bringing the "perpetrators" (no names given) to justice, but is reiterating that the amnesty offer and sanctuary in Belarus is still on the table.

The Russian Prosecutor general might be putting a case together, but that doesn't really amount to much if the core of Wagner's professional fighters are still heavily armed and with Prigo still as their head. At least in the short term, Prigo isn't getting arrested until Putin can scrap together a spare brigade or two of non-conscript troops with tanks and artillery to help serve the arrest warrant.

[Yu Ominae]

https://t.co/1MJcuYfUwP

The Telegraph supposedly reported that the FSB made threats to "introduce themselves" to Prigozhin's family/immediate relatives if he didn't stop his advance.

[Key Board]

I think he would have considered that possibility
If not this really is the dumbest mutiny

//

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1673802554168209410

Flight tracking data indicated Prigozhin's plane took off from Belarus and went to Russia.

[Ithekro]

Okay, but why?

[Roger Rambo]

So it seems that the previous head of the Russian War effort in Ukraine, Surovikin
(AKA general Armageddon among Vatnik cheerleaders), has been arrested in the aftermath of the Wagner mutiny. He had *very* close ties to Wagner and was very favorable to them while he was still in charge before getting demoted. So even if he wasn't in cahoots with Prigozhin, he's now under and incredible degree of suspicion now.

I figure the arrests/purges are unlikely to stop at Surovikin. Wagner has extremely close ties with GRU, Russia's military intelligence. So I think Putin and the FSB are going to be actively looking for folks who either were actively involved, or knew about it and intentionally kept silent.

[Renegade334]

Vazhnye Istorii says he's already been released.
But...as with all news Russian, some NaCl injection is advised.