[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[Dr. Akagi]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

I'm not sure why everyone is trying so hard to make Rosa completely innocent here. I mean, she is shown in the chapel with everyone else, and the rest of them are dead. She lies about Kinzo. She had to have placed the final letter at the end. She tries to find Beatrice at the end for some reason.

She's too obvious a suspect to be the real deal.

Besides, I just adore Rosa, must be her fashion sense; either that, or the way she reminds me of Mommy **fondly looks at the picture of Naoko on her desk**

[Moogleking]

The non-obvious part would be that she was manipulated into such a situation.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

The non-obvious part would be that she was manipulated into such a situation.

Although I'll definitely agree that Rosa is suspicious and knows more than she should, she spent most of that game in Battler's presence... the only people she could have murdered were the first twilight victims, and as I've said before, I don't think she's capable of killing six people in such a cold-blooded fashion.

[rogerpepitone]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Although I'll definitely agree that Rosa is suspicious and knows more than she should, she spent most of that game in Battler's presence... the only people she could have murdered were the first twilight victims, and as I've said before, I don't think she's capable of killing six people in such a cold-blooded fashion.

1) Battler was sleeping in the parlor when Genji knocked to announce Nanjo & Kumasawa's deaths.
2) Rosa carried sleeping pills.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

1) Battler was sleeping in the parlor when Genji knocked to announce Nanjo & Kumasawa's deaths.
2) Rosa carried sleeping pills.

Isn't it strange that in EP3 Rosa showed that she had used up all the child-sleeping pills when Battler asked whether she got any pill to quell the crying Maria, while she still have some in EP2. Where and When did she get the sleeping pills in EP2?

[rogerpepitone]

I guessed that, in EP3, somebody used the pills (probably as part of the first twilight) or just dumped them (to try to force Rosa away from the group?).

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

I'm not sure why everyone is trying so hard to make Rosa completely innocent here. I mean, she is shown in the chapel with everyone else, and the rest of them are dead. She lies about Kinzo. She had to have placed the final letter at the end. She tries to find Beatrice at the end for some reason.

You know how in some episodes of Scooby-Doo there's this really creepy dude who is moving around mysteriously and acting all suspicious, but then at the end he turns out to be an undercover cop and the culprit was the little old lady who runs the pumpkin farm?

Yeah, the former guy is Rosa. She's too obvious. She's been painted as a nutso crazy SOB (DOB?) from very early on. Yet she's also not really as bad as we think she is (anime interpretation of what Ange saw, ep5 explanation for why she cancelled going to the amusement park with Maria). It's too obvious to look at things and say "Well clearly Rosa did it because she's crazy!" That's not fair to her or to the mystery. If she's really dying early so often, how can she be the killer? And if she's only the killer in ep2, why is this different?

[Moogleking]

At the same time, "She's innocent because it looks too much like she did it!" gets a little silly. I just can't agree with having that as the only basis for an argument and coming up with crazy theories on how she must not have done it.

I'm becoming more fond of the idea that she drugged the people in the first twilight and didn't expect them to get killed.

I can't see Rosa as the true culprit, but I can definitely see her getting manipulated into participating knowingly or not in some of the events.

[Judoh]

There is also the team epitaph theory Teehee had where when the gold is found the real culprit stops killing and someone in "team epitaph" decides to commit the murders on his/her own accord. I can see Rosa following that theory.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by Judoh

There is also the team epitaph theory Teehee had where when the gold is found the real culprit stops killing and someone in "team epitaph" decides to commit the murders on his/her own accord. I can see Rosa following that theory.

I still generally stand by my Team Epitaph Theory. The rules are simple:

1) Beatrice is the ring leader. (My favorite is Shannon.)
2) Beatrice and Maria are the only ones capable of drawing magic circles. (I can get that to work, but only if I assume that Shannon is alive in Episode 1. Also, I don't think Maria is actually drawing magic circles in episodes 1-4. Possibly 5, though.)
3) Beatrice has a number of permanent members who are consistently on her side. (In no particular order: Genji, Kanon, Kumasawa, and (maybe) Nanjo).
4) The ring leaders and the recurring followers consist entirely of Team Epitaph.
5) Depending on the game, there will be different recruits, copycats, or pressured individuals. Or whatever noun you want to use. To whatever degree, they decide they need to kill, close a room, and/or lie. They can have varying degrees of knowledge of what exactly is going on.
6) Oh yeah, and Maria is always Beatrice's naive agent.
7) Edit: Also, Team Epitaph always starts with the stakes. The recuits may be delegated the task of using stakes if necessary (most likely Ep3).
8) Edit2: There is no actual affiliation between Team Epitaph and Team Kinzo-is-Alive, though there may be shared members. It might be easier to say that Team Epitaph is a rebel subgroup of Kinzo-Alive, depending on whether or not it's true.

Here are my favorite configurations thus far:

Episode 1: (But I have to map out Episode 1 to check up on it)
A) Team Epitaph does it all, with Shannon still alive (Fool's Mate). In which case, maybe Hideyoshi was recruited/pressured.
B) Or if Shannon is actually dead, the remnants of Team Epitaph still finish the job. Though I haven't checked if it's possible.
"The difficulty is standard. Shall we take the easy road?"

Episode 2: Team Epitaph recruits or pressures Rosa and Gohda.
"The difficulty is first-rate. The witch intends to make you surrender with no warning."

Episode 3: Team Epitaph recruits or pressures:
- Nanjo (unless he was always part of the team)
- Eva and Hideyoshi (maybe)
- George (maybe)
- Rudolf and Kyrie (unlikely but still possible)
- Krauss and Natsuhi (even more unlikely)
- Just pick your favorite combination, and see how it plays out.
"The difficulty is equal. Equal for both you and the witch."

Episode 4: Team Epitaph recruits or pressures: (still need to map it)
- Let's just say a huge number of people. This one's completely over the top and difficult to track.
"The difficulty depends on you. Your style of fighting until now will influence the difficulty."

Episode 5:
- Erm, just check out my prior Team Epitaph Rebellion Theory post.
"The difficulty is fairly easy. What could possibly fool you now... ?"

Oh, I had to get this off my mind before I forget. On Maria's diary, I wouldn't be surprised if Kumasawa posed as Virgilia to cast her signature. Why? Because it takes two to tango.
1) Shannon = Beatrice
2) Kumasawa = Virgilia
3) Maria = Happy!!

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Moogleking

At the same time, "She's innocent because it looks too much like she did it!" gets a little silly. I just can't agree with having that as the only basis for an argument and coming up with crazy theories on how she must not have done it.

I'm becoming more fond of the idea that she drugged the people in the first twilight and didn't expect them to get killed.

I can't see Rosa as the true culprit, but I can definitely see her getting manipulated into participating knowingly or not in some of the events.

I'm fine with something like that, sure. If the mastermind is the sort of person I think it is (that is, not "Beatrice," though he/she may be working in the same circles as her), manipulating people and playing on paranoia is their MO. The calls to Natsuhi, the "discord" letter in ep1 that got Natsuhi to kick people out of the (apparently) secure study, etc.

That said, Rosa is clearly unstable but not as aggressively violent as we're perhaps led to believe. She's played up as Monster Mom, and that immediately makes me suspicious because it's too easy for everyone to believe Maria's point of view (something that seems to have been reinforced by the Saktuaro situation not being what Maria's diary suggested it was). As the many rules of mysteries like to point out, the culprit being a lunatic or criminal is too easy; it's always the one who appears to have everything that is best-suited to slipping into depravity.

It's also too easy to blame Rosa but, as people have pointed out, she's with Battler for most of ep2. She simply can't be committing most of those murders herself. It's like the Eva situation in ep3; sure, you can blame Eva for everything, but more than half the murders pretty much cannot have been committed by Eva.

Some problems I have with Team Epitaph:

• If "Beatrice" is Shannon, or if she is as Battler seems to think she is, I don't believe her to be the ringleader or mastermind. Unless you mean ringleader as primary organizer, which is still possible, but I don't think she's the driving force behind the idea of murder. Either she's not the sort of person who would do this sort of thing without external pressure or she has a very good reason (see the "Love Killer" idea I had, although that's still pretty twisted).
• I'm not entirely sure I believe that Genji is involved with any murder plots. You can consistently explain all the episodes without dirtying Genji's hands. You'd also have to explain why he would go along with it. Certainly you can do it, but I need more reason behind it to accept it, I guess. I can understand Kumasawa and Nanjo's possible motives, of course.
• I would advise against confining the team as you have to people outside the family. I have a strong hunch that someone in the family is directly involved or possibly even a mastermind. And not someone expected like Eva, Rosa, or Kyrie, but someone off the wall like George or Jessica.
• Consider the possibility of an inside operative. Look at people's behavior and their suggestions of what the survivors should do. Look at who is taking a leadership role. For a coordinated Team Epitaph style murder ploy to work, it is a near certainty that there has to be someone - a "wolf" among the "sheep" - handling the survivors at all times. Logistically, this is just necessary. You need to keep people away from where the killer is likely to be operating, give whoever is staking people time, and then you need to shuttle the survivors away before they can closely examine the bodies. You can't expect them to be able to do this themselves.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by Renall

I'm fine with something like that, sure.

Spoiler for space:

If the mastermind is the sort of person I think it is (that is, not "Beatrice," though he/she may be working in the same circles as her), manipulating people and playing on paranoia is their MO. The calls to Natsuhi, the "discord" letter in ep1 that got Natsuhi to kick people out of the (apparently) secure study, etc.

That said, Rosa is clearly unstable but not as aggressively violent as we're perhaps led to believe. She's played up as Monster Mom, and that immediately makes me suspicious because it's too easy for everyone to believe Maria's point of view (something that seems to have been reinforced by the Saktuaro situation not being what Maria's diary suggested it was). As the many rules of mysteries like to point out, the culprit being a lunatic or criminal is too easy; it's always the one who appears to have everything that is best-suited to slipping into depravity.

It's also too easy to blame Rosa but, as people have pointed out, she's with Battler for most of ep2. She simply can't be committing most of those murders herself. It's like the Eva situation in ep3; sure, you can blame Eva for everything, but more than half the murders pretty much cannot have been committed by Eva.

Some problems I have with Team Epitaph:

• If "Beatrice" is Shannon, or if she is as Battler seems to think she is in ep5-6, I don't believe her to be the ringleader or mastermind. Unless you mean ringleader as primary organizer, which is still possible, but I don't think she's the driving force behind the idea of murder. I don't think Battler would be afraid to expose Beatrice's heart if she were a murderer, so either she's not the sort of person who would do this sort of thing without external pressure or she has a very good reason (see the "Love Killer" idea I had, although that's still pretty twisted).
• I'm not entirely sure I believe that Genji is involved with any murder plots. You can consistently explain all the episodes without dirtying Genji's hands. You'd also have to explain why he would go along with it. Certainly you can do it, but I need more reason behind it to accept it, I guess. I can understand Kumasawa and Nanjo's possible motives, of course.
• I would advise against confining the team as you have to people outside the family. I have a strong hunch that someone in the family is directly involved or possibly even a mastermind. And not someone expected like Eva, Rosa, or Kyrie, but someone off the wall like George or Jessica.
• Consider the possibility of an inside operative. Look at people's behavior and their suggestions of what the survivors should do. Look at who is taking a leadership role. For a coordinated Team Epitaph style murder ploy to work, it is a near certainty that there has to be someone - a "wolf" among the "sheep" - handling the survivors at all times. Logistically, this is just necessary. You need to keep people away from where the killer is likely to be operating, give whoever is staking people time, and then you need to shuttle the survivors away before they can closely examine the bodies. You can't expect them to be able to do this themselves.

First of all, your Episode 6 commentary has no place in an Episode 5 thread, no matter how trivial. That's the only reason why I'm here and not in the spoilers and speculations thread (let alone the EP6 thread).

Second, I'm trying to be as objective as possible, while allowing my subjectivity to give me clues. Meanwhile, you cling to your Scooby-Doo level of reasoning.

Now think about it: Kinzo is dead. And yet, people perpetrate lies that he is still alive. Genji included, even if passively. He will never refute it. You know that he knows the truth from Episode 5. Objectively speaking, he is likely to be involved.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by TeeHee

Now think about it: Kinzo is dead. And yet, people perpetrate lies that he is still alive. Genji included, even if passively. He will never refute it. You know that he knows the truth from Episode 5. Objectively speaking, he is likely to be involved.

He is likely to be involved in hiding Kinzo's death. So what? That was Natsuhi's idea, and she had only the best of intentions no matter how it might look. Genji doesn't want everything Kinzo worked for to collapse because of Krauss's incompetence and he thinks that Kinzo will be respectfully sent off once the problems are resolved. He trusts Natsuhi's judgment and is loyal to Krauss. How does any of that indicate he is "likely to be involved" in a murder plot? The death coverup might well explain his prior suspicious behavior. I'm not saying people who know Kinzo is dead can't be involved in a greater plot (in fact it seems almost certain at least one of them must be, and Shannon and Kanon were let in on the plot at some point if the flashbacks are accurate and they're both pretty hefty suspects). But Genji's behavior seems very different from the behavior of people like Shannon, Kanon, Nanjo, and Kumasawa. Genji doesn't seem to be hiding much other than Kinzo's death. Those other people do.

[moldy_tomato]

In the first twilight of the first game, I have a problem about the explanation about how Shannon could be alive, because Battler didn't see her.

There was more people lying on the ground than Battler could count on one hand.
In case he didn't have less than 5 fingers on each hand, there would really be at least 6 people.
The 6th one couldn't be another person's corpse, because the identities of all unidentified corpses are guaranteed.
Therefore the sixth person could only be Shannon's corpse or a person that was still alive.

It was supposedly Shannon with only half of her face left, but that could have been Hideyoshi's lie that he made, because he knew that her wife was against the thought of George marrying a servant, and maybe he was against it too.
Or he realized that Shannon was alive and the murderer, and he thought that it is better for George think that Shannon is dead than that the person he loved was a murderer.
Even in that case I can't understand it.
Kanon and Nanjo should also have seen if Shannon is dead or alive, and Hideyoshi should have understood that.
His actions seems too unnatural to me.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by moldy_tomato

In the first twilight of the first game, I have a problem about the explanation about how Shannon could be alive, because Battler didn't see her.

Maybe I can refine my theory after I map out Ep1. Awesome, that is officially my next assignment now!

Originally Posted by Renall

He is likely to be involved in hiding Kinzo's death. So what? That was Natsuhi's idea, and she had only the best of intentions no matter how it might look. Genji doesn't want everything Kinzo worked for to collapse because of Krauss's incompetence and he thinks that Kinzo will be respectfully sent off once the problems are resolved. He trusts Natsuhi's judgment and is loyal to Krauss. How does any of that indicate he is "likely to be involved" in a murder plot? The death coverup might well explain his prior suspicious behavior. I'm not saying people who know Kinzo is dead can't be involved in a greater plot (in fact it seems almost certain at least one of them must be, and Shannon and Kanon were let in on the plot at some point if the flashbacks are accurate and they're both pretty hefty suspects). But Genji's behavior seems very different from the behavior of people like Shannon, Kanon, Nanjo, and Kumasawa. Genji doesn't seem to be hiding much other than Kinzo's death. Those other people do.

Rather, I should have argued that there's something very suspicious about him perpetrating the lie about Beatrice. Why is it that in Episode 1, you have Genji, Kanon, and Kumasawa telling Battler, straight-faced, that the Beatrice of the forest definitely exists? Why is it that in Episode 2, Kyrie witnesses Genji escorting Beatrice to the guest room? You don't really think that Genji truly believes that he is escorting Beatrice, do you? You have to give him a little more credit than that.

[ijriims]

I just have to say Genji is definitely not a stupid person, he is sometimes loyal to the extent others may mistake him as stubborn and unwit, but he was rather intelligent and formidable(he was the chess opponent with Kinzo, and Kinzo's chess skills is probably not weak)

When he said Beatrice existed, not that it was because he just believed anything Kinzo said, but he really judged everything and made those statements.

[Jan-Poo]

TeeHee what do you say about the fact that EP5 while it shows a clear example of a person being manipulated through blackmail it also shows that that person didn't kill anyone?

What I'm trying to say is that while it is possible for someone dimwitted like Natsuhi to be manipulated into playing some stupid game, I can't really imagine what kind of Blackmail would turn anyone in the island into a murderer, especially if it involves a mass murder who is very likely to involve your close relatives and the most loved ones. The people that might be more likely to resort to murder in order to achieve a goal (Eva, Kyrie, Rosa) are at the same time too smart to be manipulated and to not think that the manipulator is going to kill them as well once they have done their job.
Especially considering that the Epitaph clearly says that "no one will be left alive".

[TeeHee]

I can see why everyone is hesitant to accept that Shannon is alive in Ep1. But if we were to make the following assumptions:
1) Shannon is Beatrice
2) Only Beatrice draws magic circles in Episodes 1-4

... then it must mean that Shannon is alive. I'm not saying that my assumptions are necessarily valid, but I have found a number of correlations in other Episodes suggesting that the circles are drawn only when Shannon is alive. (Ep5 is a different story altogether.)

I'll tell you what. Here are the tasks that I hope to carry out:
1) Episode 1 Map
2) Episode 4 Map
3) Comprehensive Magic Circle and Stake Analysis. It'll probably be more like a chart or a table. Just seeing who's alive when the circles are drawn, and who is physically capable of it. The stakes... well, we'll see.

[TeeHee]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

TeeHee what do you say about the fact that EP5 while it shows a clear example of a person being manipulated through blackmail it also shows that that person didn't kill anyone?

What I'm trying to say is that while it is possible for someone dimwitted like Natsuhi to be manipulated into playing some stupid game, I can't really imagine what kind of Blackmail would turn anyone in the island into a murderer, especially if it involves a mass murder who is very likely to involve your close relatives and the most loved ones. The people that might be more likely to resort to murder in order to achieve a goal (Eva, Kyrie, Rosa) are at the same time too smart to be manipulated and to not think that the manipulator is going to kill them as well once they have done their job.
Especially considering that the Epitaph clearly says that "no one will be left alive".

It really does baffle me, actually. I don't like it, but people who are supposed to be innocent are, in my eyes, most likely guilty. It's just a matter of checking every character's backstory and figuring out what makes them tick.

The other thing is that some of them are not necessarily killers, but just pawns in a larger scheme. They can be told to say one thing for reason X and make others believe it.

As another example, there are bomb theories going around, and some sound more legit to me than others. Let's make the following assumption:
- Someone knows there is a bomb that will kill everyone.
- That person thinks that getting killed by the bomb is no better than getting assasinated.
- And then they convince someone else of the same.

Well, I don't think I'm that good at determining motives, but I think I can establish a process of elimination and correlation analysis, at least. So I'll just keep doing that.

Edit: Actually, something else just came to mind. You can pretty much turn anyone into a killer if you really wanted to. For example, in Ep3, I was looking for a reason for Gohda to be a killer in his closed room. I discovered that he owed his life to Natsuhi. Natsuhi is his savior. (Actually, this is supported by the Gohda Diary extra TIP.) So seeing that Natsuhi was killed - and not to mention his job - he probably seeks revenge.

[Knicknevin]

With regards as to the blackmailer/threatener in Episode 5, I'm starting to wonder... We've been talking about the circumstances of Battler's birth and who knows, who might have made a switch, and with who, etc etc. Some people are of the opinion that Battler was Beatrice's son, others (like myself and TeeHee I believe) are looking at it as a switch between Kyrie and Asumu's children.

The thing is, just about every theory has a common theme- they all rely upon Kinzo to be the one to make some secret switch. And maybe he did. But... one thing bothers me. Rudolph has, in two different games now, tried to tell something to Battler which he implies might get him killed. He tries to plan a meeting among his family to talk about this. In Episode 5, he even goes on to say it has something to do with Battler's birth. But, of course, he dies, and the conversation never takes place.

In Episode 1 that is.



... Let me rewind a bit. Shortly before the family conference, Rudolph and Kyrie are discussing how they are going to extort some money out of Krauss, and Kyrie mentions her shady contacts. 'They can probably find out something good', she says. 'Would you like to try meeting with them?' So, was the person who met with them not Kyrie, but rather Rudolph?

What could have Rudolph learned? He certainly didn't get any good blackmail material, or else he'd have thrown it into Krauss's face when the siblings are trying to extort him. But, what if what he learned was regarding Battler's birth? We've assumed that Rudolph was in the know, but maybe he wasn't.

Maybe he learned that Kyrie manipulated the staff of the hospital Asumu gave birth at to exchange Asumu's baby with hers. Maybe he learned about a plot by Kinzo to shuffle several children around that were being born in the same time frame.

In a creepier turn of events, maybe he found out that Battler is actually the son of Beatrice (#2) and Kinzo. Which would actually make Battler a 5th sibling to contest for the money.

Pretty much any of these and more could put Rudolph in a position where someone would want to kill him to keep him quiet.



So lets fast forward back to Episode 5. Battler has solved the epitaph, and Rudolph is talking about him like he's the new head already. He approaches Battler, and tells him he wants to talk about Battler's birth, he might be killed, etc etc. In Episode 1, Rudolph is killed before he gets the chance to talk about this. But in Episode 5, he doesn't... Is this the circumstance that changed everything, and made Episode 5 such a departure from the other games? The epitaph has been solved before and the killings didn't stop.

Could Rudolph telling Battler about whatever it is he knows be what changed things?

Now granted, Batter is not the culprit. And it doesn't make sense for him to be the mystery caller either. But he might have been the one to make up the plan to frame Natsuhi, based on what he learned from Rudolph, and the killer just adjusted their plans to fit. I'll have to think about that some more.



Now for the finale- In the first four episodes, Rudolph dies in the first twilight of three of them. The only one where he doesn't die is the third. All the servants died in the first twilight of that game.

So, if there is someone who knows what it is Rudolph wants to tell Battler, does it make sense, therefore, that Rudolph dies so early to keep his secret from getting out? And that the one who is killing him is one of the servants?


What does Rudolph know?