News Stories

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Not really working, from what I have heard from some people workig in China. Despite increasing the interest rate the common phenomena of rushing to borrow for fear of higher interest rates in the future have been seen. Secondly what it seems is that most of the loans are developer loans, which are suffering risks of default due to lack of tenancy on the buildings erected.

The lack of policing on financial regulations, combined with the artificial pegging to keep the currency low, resulted in hyperinflation. I am not that bullish about China anymore, but what really seems to complicate the issue is that nobody wants to hedge against China for fear of missing opportunities.

Full yuan convertibility is not going to happen overnight, but it is already in progress. Before that becomes a reality, it'll just be far too messy politically for Beijing to do anything about the exchange rate. It cannot risk raising it too fast, as there is obviously too much vested interest in keeping at its current level. There's also the practical problem of knowing how high to go. These are things best left to markets to decide, not governments.

One thing Krugman got right in his commentary is about the level of corruption in China. There is a lot of hot money sloshing about in China, but endemic corruption prevents people from investing that cash effectively in productive activity. Now that is something I believe no one has any idea how to solve, short of *uh oh* regime change.



And, I've never really been away. Just not as active any more.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

Full yuan convertibility is not going to happen overnight, but it is already in progress. Before that becomes a reality, it'll just be far too messy politically for Beijing to do anything about the exchange rate. It cannot risk raising it too fast, as there is obviously too much vested interest in keeping at its current level. There's also the practical problem of knowing how high to go. These are things best left to markets to decide, not governments.

But they are not letting the market decide since the start of this fiasco. The yuan has remained artificially low for quite a long time and the government likes keeping it low to draw investors. And now they ate stuck with the inability to raise it to the correct rate as determined by the market.

And there is also this issue of image saving being quite prevalent there from what I have heard, the reason why many developers refuse to lower rent rates and would rather keep buildings empty despite owing banks money because lowering the rent would be a sign of desperation and lack of business ability.

One thing Krugman got right in his commentary is about the level of corruption in China. There is a lot of hot money sloshing about in China, but endemic corruption prevents people from investing that cash effectively in productive activity. Now that is something I believe no one has any idea how to solve, short of *uh oh* regime change.

A regime change is not required actually. The CCCP needs to just step up on their regulation. Good ol' capital punishment should do the rest.

[aohige]

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

How Koreans react to the news btw? I know they will be tempted to dance out in the street, but i think it's rude to behave that way to deceased people (even against criminals, or in this case, a dictator)in East Asia. And then the North Korean is easily provoked to use those guns

Even for someone like him, it's normally considered bad manners to do so.

But.... deep inside, majority of Asians (Japanese, South Koreans, and other nearby denizens) are praising the news with joy. Trust me on this.
He carried out kidnappings of so many of our people, has been the worst dictator in decades in the region, and quite frankly majority of us considered him a head of a terrorist state.

He will not get tears from the Japanese. Or the South Koreans. Or the Taiwanese.
Or any other Asians with even a reasonable fraction of common sense.

[Ithekro]

This is sort of local news for me: I use to work there some years ago.

Just like that, Contra Costa Jewish Community Center shuts its doors

http://www.jweekly.com/article/full/...n-immediately/

It was very sudden it seems. I know some of those people interviewed. If the Adults Program Director is surprised, something weird happened. You don't blind side old Israeli sergeants like that. Don't know what they'd do about all the preschool kids or the senior daycare center customers. Or how they will tell the long term renters, or people that booked long in advance for a room...or the Summer Camp....all sort of things that are planned in advance.

[ganbaru]

Russian rig sinks, more than 50 feared dead
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7BH04020111218

Secret U.S., Taliban talks reach turning point
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/...7BI03I20111219

[Zakoo]

So you guys for sure remember our previous discussion about UK vs France economy and wtf how our officials's behavior was chilidish.

Still sems like it's true

I don't know how biased this website is though.

[Ithekro]

The British and French still have an irritation about each other and they really don't try to hide it.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

But they are not letting the market decide since the start of this fiasco. The yuan has remained artificially low for quite a long time and the government likes keeping it low to draw investors. And now they ate stuck with the inability to raise it to the correct rate as determined by the market.

You've got your sequence wrong. Keeping the yuan low is meant, first and foremost, to benefit Chinese manufacturers and boost exports, the key driver of China's economic growth. A higher yuan would, on the contrary, benefit foreign investors repatriating cash to their home countries (and not to mention, make Chinese exports more expensive, a boon to manufacturers elsewhere in the world).

In any case, investors are flocking to China not so much because of exchange rates but more so for its burgeoning size and still-rapid growth. And that growth is, in turn, fuelling inflation that drives up overheads and production costs. This is what all businesses there have to deal with, regardless of the yuan's exchange rate. China's situation is very different from that of India's, where a plummeting rupee is worsening the country's already terrible inflation.

Besides, what would be the correct rate? Why should a sovereign country bow to the demands of another country to "fix" its exchange rate? The United States doesn't get to boss people around any more, in case that still isn't clear. And the WTO can't even lift its Doha round out of the rut. It's pretty much powerless to tell China to do anything.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

You've got your sequence wrong. Keeping the yuan low is meant, first and foremost, to benefit Chinese manufacturers and boost exports, the key driver of China's economic growth. A higher yuan would, on the contrary, benefit foreign investors repatriating cash to their home countries (and not to mention, make Chinese exports more expensive, a boon to manufacturers elsewhere in the world).

In any case, investors are flocking to China not so much because of exchange rates but more so for its burgeoning size and still-rapid growth. And that growth is, in turn, fuelling inflation that drives up overheads and production costs. This is what all businesses there have to deal with, regardless of the yuan's exchange rate. China's situation is very different from that of India's, where a plummeting rupee is worsening the country's already terrible inflation.

Besides, what would be the correct rate? Why should a sovereign country bow to the demands of another country to "fix" its exchange rate? The United States doesn't get to boss people around any more, in case that still isn't clear. And the WTO can't even lift its Doha round out of the rut. It's pretty much powerless to tell China to do anything.

It is not about telling China to do the correct thing, but rather China isn't bothering about supply and demand for the world economy and the real wages that it helped to drag down with its supercheap business cost thanks to the low yuan.

Businesses are flocking to China and depriving the rest of the world to compete on an equal footing in attracting businesses and keep people employed. They are forcing the whole world to trade with them by making China a universal factory where everytbing is made, but their lack of regulation and their asinine dominating behaviour of do-it-my-way-and-be-my-dog simply irks their business partner.

[Ithekro]

That is not very different than it was a thousand years ago. Instead of people investing in cheap labor, they invested in quality and "rare" commodities not found in the rest of the world at the time. Yet the result is the same. All go to China.

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

The British and French still have an irritation about each other and they really don't try to hide it.

It date probably from even before the 100-years war...

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

It is not about telling China to do the correct thing, but rather China isn't bothering about supply and demand for the world economy and the real wages that it helped to drag down with its supercheap business cost thanks to the low yuan.

Businesses are flocking to China and depriving the rest of the world to compete on an equal footing in attracting businesses and keep people employed. They are forcing the whole world to trade with them by making China a universal factory where everytbing is made, but their lack of regulation and their asinine dominating behaviour of do-it-my-way-and-be-my-dog simply irks their business partner.

That would be the broad consensus, but a closer look would suggest that, within its upper echelons, China's leadership isn't as oblivious to world opinion as everyone thinks. Making China the "universal factory" is propaganda designed to make the country's leadership look like megalomaniacs everyone would love to hate. But, like all countries, China isn't a monolithic block. There are competing factions within its political circles. Some want to fine-tune policies to match global norms, others dislike relinquishing the Communist Party's control over economic mechanisms.

In the end, I have neither time nor the resources on hand to dwell deeply on this topic. What I do know is that pretty much all media reports on China are useless, as Krugman says. They're mainly too simplistic to confirm or deny my own suspicions and assessment of what's really going on.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

That is not very different than it was a thousand years ago. Instead of people investing in cheap labor, they invested in quality and "rare" commodities not found in the rest of the world at the time. Yet the result is the same. All go to China.

If you put it that way, its true, but they have learned from history and decided to use this as a leverage. But their philosophy is that of be-my-dog rather than be-my-friend when it comes to diplomacy, not yielding means subjugation.

That is why China has had corruption in its history for a very long time because everything becomes a political play for power via sucking up to the extent of betrayal and dishonesty. And to think of it, the 2012 US elextions seem to have semblace to that behavioir too.

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

That would be the broad consensus, but a closer look would suggest that, within its upper echelons, China's leadership isn't as oblivious to world opinion as everyone thinks. Making China the "universal factory" is propaganda designed to make the country's leadership look like megalomaniacs everyone would love to hate. But, like all countries, China isn't a monolithic block. There are competing factions within its political circles. Some want to fine-tune policies to match global norms, others dislike relinquishing the Communist Party's control over economic mechanisms.

In the end, I have neither time nor the resources on hand to dwell deeply on this topic. What I do know is that pretty much all media reports on China are useless, as Krugman says. They're mainly too simplistic to confirm or deny my own suspicions and assessment of what's really going on.

What if I tell you there is alot of money to be made from all that information in the next 20 years, given all the information to be gleaned from sources everywhere, and not even US or any other part of the world offers such a chance?

There is no better place to refine analyses other than with people who actually has insight into world events, or are in positions to know more about it.

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

What if I tell you there is alot of money to be made from all that information in the next 20 years, given all the information to be gleaned from sources everywhere, and not even US or any other part of the world offers such a chance?

I'd wish you good luck.

Essentially, it's always crucial to remember that China is HUGE. Guangzhou is not Chengdu, Beijing is not Shanghai, and Xinjiang is not Tibet. Yet to judge from most Western reports on China, you'd think that California is all of the United States.

[Ithekro]

California would like to think so...culturally, if Hollywood has anything to say about it.

Originally Posted by ganbaru

It date probably from even before the 100-years war...

Probably can be traced back to 1066.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by TinyRedLeaf

I'd wish you good luck.

Essentially, it's always crucial to remember that China is HUGE. Guangzhou is not Chengdu, Beijing is not Shanghai, and Xinjiang is not Tibet. Yet to judge from most Western reports on China, you'd think that California is all of the United States.

Damn, bait not working.

I agree with that. Though I wish China would publish more financial reports and not keep their stuff in the dark.

[-Sho-]

Report: N. Korea test-fires missile


They are crazy

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by -Sho-

Report: N. Korea test-fires missile


They are crazy

I'm getting really tired of people throwing the crazy label without thought.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

I'm getting really tired of people throwing the crazy label without thought.

Then what label should we use, your majesty?

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Then what label should we use, your majesty?

Cunning. Almost all of their moves are based on planned programs, and to think in terms of a "civilized, Western" country will never help one understand why DPRK does what it does.