2008-11-03, 09:24 | Link #4344 |
AS Oji-kun
Join Date: Nov 2006
Age: 74
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The most decisive election at the moment could be the race in Minnesota between former Saturday Night Live writer/performer Al Franken and incumbent Republican senator Norm Coleman. The Democrats are close to a "filibuster-proof" majority of sixty seats in the Senate, especially since they're likely to pick up Alaska after the Stevens conviction and oust Liddy Dole from her seat in North Carolina. The MN race is complicated by the presence of a third-party candidate who consistently gets about 10% in polls.
The other important Senate race could be in Georgia, where Republican incumbent Saxbe Chambliss holds a slight lead over his Democratic challenger Jim Martin. Presidential "coattails" could play a role in Georgia where the Obama campaign has mobilized thousands of new voters. These people are probably much less likely to show up in polling data and will almost certainly split in favor of the Democrats. Any sixty-seat model relies on former Democrat, now "independent," Joe Lieberman from Connecticut. It would be ironic indeed if the man who spoke at the Republican National Convention in favor of John McCain ends up casting the decisive vote with the Democrats to end Republican filibustering of Supreme Court nominees. (I fully expect to see some of the "liberals" on the Court retire if Obama is elected; Stevens and Ginsberg in particular. The conservative wing is relatively much younger and less like to retire if the Democrats hold the Oval Office and the Senate.)
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2008-11-03, 12:29 | Link #4345 | |
Junior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Location: Salzburg, Austria
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Quote:
At least this posters (and some of the content of the website) shows that both sides have idiots. |
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2008-11-03, 12:48 | Link #4347 |
Obey the Darkly Cute ...
Author
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: On the whole, I'd rather be in Kyoto ...
Age: 66
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The website that poster was scavenged from is fairly center-left .... but with an extra amount of disdain for the far right loony fringe. The poster art "anti-American" is satirical though a far right loony might look at it and say "looks patriotic to me...."
Though I think he's being optimistic, a lot of this article amplifies my feelings on the situation: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/john-c..._b_140250.html And this article matches a lot of my feelings on why McCain is where he is now: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/hilary..._b_140388.html
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Last edited by Vexx; 2008-11-03 at 13:55. |
2008-11-03, 16:28 | Link #4350 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2008
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Obama is nearly eleven points ahead of McCain in the polls, if McCain wins this will be a total reconsideration of the US.
If Obama doesn't win now, this implies that he will never be able to do so in four years. Since you can barely imagine worst for the Republican than what we see today, with the economy,the crisis, the war.... The whole world is facing your country now, if the choice is not the one expected, I don't even imagine how long it will take to have this positive image of a prosperous and loved country as it was the case under Clinton. I really hope it will be what the majority of people here expect, otherwise this image, of open minded American who are able to elect a black man for the White House, that they show endlessly at the news since a while will be completely erased of people's mind coming from the four corners of the earth. |
2008-11-03, 17:41 | Link #4353 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
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Quote:
Bradley Effect... on the national level. We'll see on Nov 4. |
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2008-11-03, 17:58 | Link #4354 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2008
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You're right, racism is not the only one explanation but it has to be the biggest fraud in the US History to make lose a man who is by 11 points ahead in the polls just before the j day.
If McCain wins, let's all meet at the nearest river next to an election office , you never know.... Kidding... Anyway we will see what will happen and by how many votes the future president won the election it should answer a lot of questions. |
2008-11-03, 17:59 | Link #4355 |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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I'd argue that the Bradley effect has long since been on the way down, and in any case I suspect this election is going to be truly historic in terms of voter turnout -- especially minority and youth voter turnout. These voter groups don't have nearly as high a potential for the Bradley Effect thing as the "core" white voter group. There was the Latino-Black contention, but considering Obama made a frickin' Spanish language political ad...
In other words, as "contrary to Democracy" as it may seem to state this, but if John McCain wins the election tomorrow then there is something very wrong somewhere in the system. Oh, and we'll have disillusioned countless millions in one stroke. And his team shares the blame. Not only was this election going to be historic in terms of the United States realigning itself after the disastrous Bush years, but through their negativity they also made it a grand contest of how America will do politics. |
2008-11-03, 18:02 | Link #4356 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
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The second most expensive campaign (and second most important...) in 2008 is California's Proposition 8. Polls indicate that prop 8 is a statistical tie, with few undecided people that could decide the outcodme.
SF Mayor Gavin Newsom said it best... As California goes, so goes the nation. |
2008-11-03, 18:06 | Link #4357 | |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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Quote:
Oh, and personally, fuck proposition 8. Pass or fail, it *will* get struck down in the Supreme Court if the so-called Highest Court of the Land still has any sense left in it. Social "issues" of the day are one thing, putting the Full Faith and Credit Clause in jeopardy is an entirely different affair. |
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2008-11-03, 18:19 | Link #4358 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
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On legislating laws, not prez elections.
Quote:
"We need somebody who's got the heart, the empathy, to recognize what it's like to be a young teenage mom. The empathy to understand what it's like to be poor, or African-American, or gay, or disabled, or old. And that's the criteria by which I'm going to be selecting my judges." So YES Prop 8 is dead-on-arrival... So much money wasted |
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2008-11-03, 18:43 | Link #4359 |
Reisen FTW!
Graphic Designer
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Looks like in the yahoo polls Obama is winning and I'm excited about the election tommorow and so a mimi_girl and my mom:
http://news.yahoo.com/election/2008/dashboard
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2008-11-03, 19:09 | Link #4360 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Miami, FL
Age: 37
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Obama's grandma dies hours before election. Assuming he does win tomorrow (this Swede hopes so), talk about a bittersweet victory...
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Tags |
debate, elections, politics, united_states |
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